this is bbc news — these are the latest headlines in the uk and around the world. the winner of the nobel peace prize for 2022 is due to be announced in oslo in the next few minutes. let's go straight to that announcement.- let's go straight to that announcement. _, ., ., announcement. good morning, everyone- _ announcement. good morning, everyone- the _ announcement. good morning, everyone. the norwegian - announcement. good morning, | everyone. the norwegian nobel committee has decided to award the nobel peace prize for 2022 to one individual and two organisations. the peace prize laurier represent civil society in their home

countries. they have for many years promoted the right to criticise power and protect the fundamental rights of citizens. they have made an outstanding effort to document war crimes, an outstanding effort to document warcrimes, human an outstanding effort to document war crimes, human rights abuses and the abuse of power. together, they demonstrate the significance of civil society for peace and democracy. this year's peace prize is awarded to human rights advocate from belarus. the russian human rights organisation and the

ukrainian human rights organisation centre for civil liberties. ales bialiatski was one of the initiators of the democracy movement which emerged in belarus in the 19805. which emerged in belarus in the 1980s. he has devoted his life to promoting democracy and peace will development in his home country. he founded the organisation meaning spring in 1996 in response to the controversial constitutional amendments that gave the president dictatorial, there's triggered widespread demonstrations. viasna provided support for the demonstrators and their families who

were jailed in the years that followed, viasna evolved into a broad—based human rights organisation that documented and protested against the authorities�* use of torture against political prisoners. government authorities have repeatedly sought to silence ales bialiatski. he was imprisoned from 2011 to 2014. following large—scale demonstrations against the regime in 2020, he was again arrested. he is still detained without trial. despite tremendous personal hardship, ales bialiatski

has not won one inch in his fight for human rights and democracy in belarus. the human rights organisation memorial was established in 1987. by human rights activists in the former soviet union who wanted to ensure that the victims of the oppression from the commonest regime would never be forgotten. nobel peace prize laureate andrej sekera of and human rights activist svetlana kanoute�*s, were among the founders. memorial is based on the notion that confronting past crimes is essential in preventing new ones. after the

collapse of the soviet union, memorial grew to become the largest human rights organisation in russia. in addition to establishing a centre of documentation on the victims of the stalinist era, memorial compiled and systematised information on political oppression and human rights violations in russia. memorial became the most authoritative source of information on political prisoners in russian detention facilities. the organisation has also been standing at the forefront of efforts to combat militarism and promote human rights and government based on the rule of law. when civil society must

give way to autocracy and dictatorship, peace is often victim. during the chechen wars, memorial gathered and verified information on abuse and war crimes perpetrated perpetrated on the civilian population by russian and pro—russian forces. in 2009, the head of memorial�*s branch in chechnya natalia stepanova, was killed because of this work. civil society actors in russia have been subjected to threats, imprisonment disappearances and murder for many years. as part of the government�*s

harassment of memorial, the organisation was stamped early on as a foreign agent. in december 2021, the authorities decided that memorial was to be forcibly liquidated and the documentation centre was to be closed permanently. the closure became effective in the following months, but the people behind memorial refused to shut down. in a comment mr chairman of the board stated, nobody plans to give up. the centre for civil liberties was founded in kyiv in 2007 for the

purpose of advancing human rights and democracy in ukraine. the centre has taken a stand to strengthen ukrainian civil society and pressure the authorities to make ukraine a fully—fledged democracy. to develop ukraine into a state governed by rule of law, the centre for civil liberties has actively advocated that ukraine become affiliated with the international criminal court. after russia�*s invasion of ukraine in february 2022, centerfor civil liberties has engaged in efforts to identify and document russian war crimes against the ukrainian civilian population. in

collaboration with international partners, the centre is playing a pioneering role with a view to holding the guilty parties accountable for their crimes. by awarding the nobel peace prize for 2022 to ales bialiatski, memorial and the center for civil liberties, the norwegian nobel committee wishes to honour three outstanding champions of human rights, democracy and peaceful coexistence in the neighbour countries belarus, russia and ukraine. through their consistent efforts in favour of

human values, antimilitarism and principles of law, this year�*s laureates have revitalised and honoured alfred nobel�*s vision of peace and fraternity between nations. a vision most needed in the world today. thank you very much. studio: and that is the chairwoman of the norwegian nobel committee just finishing speaking there, announcing the three winners of this year�*s nobel peace prize, just to recap the winners, the human rights advocate ales bialiatski, from belarus, the russian human rights organisation memorial, and the ukrainian human rights organisation the centerfor civil ukrainian human rights organisation

the center for civil liberties. three neighbour countries, as she put them, belarus, russia and ukraine. it was much speculated that perhaps somebody like alexei navalny, the kremlin critic, might be awarded this prize, not him, but it�*s very clear from those, one individual, two organisations, who have been awarded jointly this year�*s nobel peace prize, that the nobel committee is making its own criticism of the war in ukraine. the chairwoman talked about the winners being an individual and organisations who try to deal with militarism, who try to support the principles of law, the center for civil liberties, for example, in ukraine, has been identifying and documenting russian war crimes since the invasion in february of this yearfor numb oreal she said the invasion in february of this year for numb oreal she said was based on the notion that confronting

past crimes is essential in preventing new ones and was a source of information on political prisoners in russia, documenting those stories which should not be lost without a trace, and ales bialiatski in belarus, imprisoned in 2011 to 2014, again arrested in 2020, still detained without trial, the chairwoman said. we will bring you more reaction to those winners, find out more about them, throughout the programme. the thai government says the entire nation is in grief after a former police officer killed 37 people in a gun and knife attack at a nursery. he then killed himself and his family following the massacre in nong bua lamphu province in the north—east of the country. thailand�*s king and prime minister are expected to visit shortly to pay their respects as flags are flown at half mast across the country. 23 of the victims were children,

all aged five or younger. teachers were also killed, including one who was eight months pregnant. on friday grief—stricken families of loved ones and officials wearing black arm bands gathered at the nursery to lay wreaths and white roses. dan johnson reports. the number of coffins gives some sense of the scale of loss here. but it is the young age of many victims which has most shocked this country. it�*s also left a community and so many families in grief. at least 23 children were killed, some just two years old, having a lunchtime nap when the attack began. there is astonishment that this was carried out by a parent of one of the children, armed with a gun and a knife. translation: it all. went down really fast. he was slashing the knife. he didn�*t use the gun. he kept slashing in there. it�*s all by a knife. he was in the middle

of reloading the gun. i held my hands up and begged for mercy. i didn't know what to do. the 34—year—old former police sergeant was sacked injune for using drugs and was awaiting a court verdict. he drove home after the attack and killed his wife and child before taking his own life. more parents have been arriving this morning to see the scene for themselves. and later the king and the prime minister are due to visit. this is a quiet part of rural thailand, where people are struggling to comprehend what can have motivated such violence against the most innocent young lives. dan johnson, bbc news. our correspondentjonathan head is in thailand and gave us an update on what�*s been happening at the school over the past few hours. what you�*re seeing here with all these officials filling out forms and paperwork is a community coming to terms with an almost

unthinkable horror. over here are people from this village, it is a small farming village, some people have come from even further away, just in solidarity, to offer a thick cushion of human support for the families of those 23 children and all the adults who lost their lives in this tragedy, so, they�*ve filled out this community hall, people have been here since this morning, and there is no end of volunteers here, giving them counselling, helping them fill out the forms they need to do to recover the bodies of their young children, preparing for funerals, but also, what�*s happening is, it is a great coming together, everyone here is sharing this terrible burden. of course, what nobody has up to now is any answers as to why this dreadful event happened. this is a very quiet place with a little nursery school,

nobody could have imagined anything like this happening, even the teachers who confronted the killer with his gun and then ran away from him say they never thought he would target the children, and it�*s the shock of that, that people here are still absorbing. and of course those endless questions about what drove this man to do something so extraordinary and so dreadful. let�*s return to the breaking news of the awarding of the nobel peace prize, it was awarded to one individual and two organisations, all very much linked to russia�*s invasion of ukraine. with me now is our eastern europe correspondent sarah raynsford to tell us more about those winners. itrier? about those winners. very interesting, _ about those winners. very interesting, they - about those winners. very interesting, they have - about those winners. very. interesting, they have gone about those winners. - interesting, they have gone for real defenders of human rights. the russian organisation founded in the

soviet union, but the most prominent human rights organisation in that country, and closed down recently in vladimir putin�*s russia, is a really strong signal of the way that country is going, in terms of human rights, or has gone. ales bialiatski mother very well—known human rights organisation which he established many decades ago, viasna, in a country which of course now is extremely repressive, a country which after those mass protests of 2020, where now so many people are political prisoners, and those critics of the authorities who could get out have left the country, so, both russia and belarus, very much highlighting the huge problems with human rights there and political freedoms. as for ukraine, the center for civil liberties, of course, that underlining the problem with war crimes in that country right now. so, all three of these organisations, these people, linked

very much to the conflict, to the war in ukraine, belarus involved as the country that russia is using as a launchpad for much of its invasion, russia of course the aggressor, and ukraine, the victim, and the organisations document in the crimes that have been happening on the ground. so, a strong signal about the commitment to human rights. about the commitment to human riahts. ., .., about the commitment to human riahts. ., ., ., rights. you could almost say that the awarding _ rights. you could almost say that the awarding of— rights. you could almost say that the awarding of this _ rights. you could almost say that the awarding of this prize - rights. you could almost say that the awarding of this prize is - rights. you could almost say that the awarding of this prize is a - the awarding of this prize is a political decision but it seems especially so this year in a turbulent world? it especially so this year in a turbulent world?— especially so this year in a turbulent world? ., , ., , turbulent world? it does, there was speculation — turbulent world? it does, there was speculation that _ turbulent world? it does, there was speculation that the _ turbulent world? it does, there was speculation that the prize _ turbulent world? it does, there was speculation that the prize could - turbulent world? it does, there was speculation that the prize could go l speculation that the prize could go to individuals this year, but again focusing on belarus and russia. people were talking about the face of the opposition protests in 2020, in belarus, who is now in exile, but the most prominent face of opposition to alexander lukashenko, who is now very firmly empower. because he is still in power, that is why vladimir putin is able to use belarus as this launchpad for his war in ukraine. the otherfigure that was mentioned previously,

alexei navalny, he is in prison, again, a political prisoner, but it is interesting that they have gone for those countries but for a far broader, more wide—ranging, i suppose, groups, iguess, in doing this. they have gone for a strong signal but not for individuals, they have gone for the groups who have been working from the bottom up, grassroots organisations which have been working for years, in at least two of the cases, for human rights. and as we heard from the chairwoman of the committee, people who they say represent civil society in their country, she really emphasised that concept of civil society being under threat. . ., concept of civil society being under threat. ., ~ , threat. yeah, i think it is interesting _ threat. yeah, i think it is interesting and - threat. yeah, i think it is interesting and it - threat. yeah, i think it is interesting and it is - threat. yeah, i think it is| interesting and it is under threat. yeah, i think it is- interesting and it is under threat of course particularly in belarus and in russia. so, emphasising this grassroots initiative, groups that came from the bottom and have represented society for so many years, but are so massively under threat. memorial was closed down, this was a very, very strong signal about political freedoms, this was a very, very strong signal about politicalfreedoms, or this was a very, very strong signal about political freedoms, or the lack of political freedoms, in

russia today. it is the oldest human rights organisation in russia, and it no longer legally exists in that country. so i think this is a signal from the nobel prize committee of their support for those fundamental principles that organisations like memorial and viasna, represented by ales bialiatski, represent. the committee _ ales bialiatski, represent. the committee is _ ales bialiatski, represent. the committee is clearly calling on belarus to free ales bialiatski? yes, there are so many political prisoners in belarus today, i think it is well over 800 at the last count, very prominent figures like him, others who were involved in protests in 2020, maria kolesnikova, of course, very prominent figures who are behind bars, and the same goes for russia, where all of the most prominent critics of vladimir putin are either in or in prison. just yesterday we heard that vladimir caro but is now facing a charge of treason, he was arrested at the beginning of this war because of his criticism of the war in ukraine, so this underlines the massive problems with human rights

and with freedom in those countries. sarah, thank you very much. official figures show there currently 900,000 people with dementia in the uk. and social care providers are warning that millions of people could be left without support, unless there is a complete overhaul of the system. care england, which is the body that represents independent services, says a proper vision is needed, or the nhs "will be on its knees". jeremy cooke reports. are we ready for our lovely...? wendy hughes is bringing care into the community... your medication, sweetheart. really? whey—aye. ..to mark, an ex—navy diver now living with dementia. that�*s fabulous. for mark and his family, this is priceless help. i�*ll do the dishes. next stop the bathroom. but today�*s poll by ipsos mori for bbc news suggests more than 70% of people aged over 55 are not confident that care is reaching many of those who need it. a shortage of staff like wendy lies at the heart of what many call the care crisis. let�*s go.

better wages would help. often wendy�*s appointments run over, and it�*s time she doesn�*t get paid for. my wage isn�*t the living wage any more. that�*s rubbish. on paper, it�*s a living wage but it�*s not. notjust me, every other carer out there. everybody doing this kind of work. the government says it doesn�*t set pay levels for care workers, and that it�*s a matter for local authorities and other care providers. but it is planning to invest £15 million to recruit more staff from overseas. the care sector wants radical, urgent change. if we get this wrong, there�*ll be hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people who will be in crisis. we�*ll have an nhs that will be absolutely clogged with people and the entire system, both health and social care, will be on its knees. so the stakes here are extremely high. it�*s been a year since the government announced plans to introduce a national insurance levy in part to help improve adult social care.

wonderful. that�*s now been scrapped, leaving carers and care providers asking where the money will come from. jeremy cooke, bbc news, newcastle. ukraine�*s emergency services say that 12 people are now known to have died in russian missile strikes on the city of zaporizhzhia on thursday. rescue teams pulled 21 people from the rubble of two buildings, and continue to search for victims. the local authorities say two more attacks took place overnight, injuring one person, and that a drone was heard over the city for the first time. our diplomatic correspondent paul adams is in zaporizhzhia. earlier he gave an update from the region. the death toll now from those attacks yesterday has risen to 12. we were at the scene of the large apartment block, five—storey block, that was hit yesterday morning, more than 24 hours ago, we were there late last night and it was clear that rescue work was going to continue, recovery work, i should say, at that site throughout the night,

because there was a clear belief that there are bodies still to be found in this vast tile of rubbish and rubble left by that attack. so, that is a continuing situation. in the last couple of hours, we have had more air raid sirens, and more explosions. in the distance, it is thought that a few kilometres away, there was a missile that landed close to another apartment block. we have seen video of a sizeable craterjust outside that building and a lot of damage to the outside of the building, it appears to have been a lucky escape, but this seems to be part of a kind of emerging pattern here in zaporizhzhia now which is not just hitting what they call infrastructure targets, whether those are industrial sites or railways or port facilities or that kind of thing, but actually missiles that are landing on people�*s homes in an attempt frankly to terrorise

the population of this city. so, that appears to be something that is a new phenomenon for this city, and maybe it�*s a reflection of the state of mind of the russian forces, as they experience a lot of setbacks on the battlefield. just one indication of the nature of those setbacks, the british ministry of defence now estimates that more than half of ukraine�*s tanks have been captured from russian forces in the course of this war. that is a staggering number, and it really gives you a bit of an indication as to how the tide of the conflict on the battlefield at least has changed significantly. so, just give me that statistic again, so we�*re talking about russian tanks being captured by the ukrainians? yes. ukrainians have been asking for tanks and heavy equipment since war began,

but they have also been capturing it, they captured some of it on the outskirts of kyiv early on in the conflict, they captured more around kharkiv in the north—east, and particularly in the last few weeks, in that north—eastern area, which appears to have been the scene of a rout, in which russian forces and russian—backed separatist forces have simply dropped their equipment and fled, that an awful lot of equipment has been picked up in the process. that is a slightly different situation from the situation down in the south by kherson, where the russian withdrawal appears to have been rather more orderly, not resulting in vast quantities of equipment being left by the roadside. but a rather more orderly withdrawal. but the end result of all of this

is, as i say, more than half of ukraine�*s tanks are now captured, rather than tanks they had before or anything that has been delivered since the conflict began. paul adams, our diplomatic correspondent, in zaporizhzhia. we have just had some data in from the national security agency and the office for national statistics, they have been looking at excess deaths from the very hot weather in the summer this year in the uk, they report that 56,303 deaths in england and wales, 3271 that above the five—year average, so, 6.2% above the five—year average. the uk health security agency said it was the highest excess mortality figure during extremely hot periods observed since the introduction of the heatwave plan for england in 2004. the uk�*s independent economic forecaster the office for budget responsibility is preparing to submit

its initialjudgment on the prospects for the economy to the chancellor this morning. we won�*t know what is in the draft report until budget day, which is currently planned for late november but there�*s lots of speculation about how this will affect the cost of living. let�*s remind ourselves how we got here. two weeks ago kwasi kwarteng unveiled his mini—budget claiming the biggest tax cuts in a generation. the obr wasn�*t allowed to assess the economic impact of tax cuts which spooked global markets leading to a drop in the pounds value. to a drop in the pound�*s value. it has affected the mortgage market with interest rates on a typical five—yearfixed mortgage now above 6% for the first time in 12 years. the national grid has also warned homes they could face winter power cuts in a worst—case scenario. and due to some of the world�*s top oil—producing countries agreeing to cut their output, petrol prices could rise across the globe. olly bartrum is a senior economist working in the institute for government�*s

public finance team. thank you forjoining me. first of all, explain to people why these assessments, these forecasts from the office for budget responsibility, are so important? absolutely, so, the office for budget responsibility is the government�*s official forecaster, and what it does twice a year, usually at a budget or spring statement or other fiscal event, is, it lays out the forecast for the economy, it asks the government what policies it is going to implement and then it produces an estimate of how much that is going to cost, so, the government will know how much it is going to be borrowing, what is going to happen to debt and whether it is meeting its fiscal rules on how much it can spend. now, it is important that this comes from the office for budget responsibility because the treasury used to produce its own forecasts, or the

chancellor, before 2010, but these were always far too optimistic about the impact of the chancellor�*s policies on the growth of the uk, and growth ended up underperforming, we ended up borrowing more than expected, and that is why the obr was introduced, to have an independent, objective assessment of the economy and where public finances are going to go, and the absence of that is what really spooked the markets when the mini budget happened a few weeks ago. we are not expecting to hear any details of this initial forecast, i asked the chair of the treasury select committee earlier, whether he thought given everything that has happened over the last couple of weeks, we ought to, in these circumstances, be seeing what it says, and he said, that is not a complete picture, we need to wait and get the complete picture from the obr, because it is not going to be good for anyone if the markets get unnecessarily spoke, would you agree with that assessment or do you think that in this case, there needs

to be more transparency? i think that in this case, there needs to be more transparency?- to be more transparency? i100% auree to be more transparency? i100% agree with — to be more transparency? i100% agree with his — to be more transparency? i100% agree with his assessment, - to be more transparency? i100% agree with his assessment, it - to be more transparency? i100% agree with his assessment, it is i to be more transparency? i100%| agree with his assessment, it is a completely normal part of the process for the obr to submit a first draft of that economic forecast to the treasury because what then happens is the treasury uses that as a baseline to design new policies, so the treasury will get its first forecast today which will help it figure out exactly how much it needs to change its policies in order to meet its fiscal rules and to settle the markets. and the obr will then produce subsequent versions that incorporate the impact of those policies, and i really think that�*s what we need to wait for. 50 think that's what we need to wait for. ,, ., think that's what we need to wait for, , .,, ., think that's what we need to wait for. , .,, ., ., for. so if people are looking to this and wondering _ for. so if people are looking to this and wondering if- for. so if people are looking to this and wondering if there - for. so if people are looking to| this and wondering if there will for. so if people are looking to . this and wondering if there will be anything that will immediately affect for example the interest rates on their mortgage, that�*s not going to happen immediately? iiila

going to happen immediately? i157 because it doesn't incorporate the because it doesn�*t incorporate the new policies that the chancellor will include in his medium—term fiscal plan. he said that as part of that plan, he is going to show how he�*s going to achieve fiscal sustainability and get debt falling over the medium term, and that is what we really need to see. the obr's what we really need to see. the obr�*s assessment of those policies. what they�*re getting into today is just a draft, and this is part of the policy—making process, part of how the treasury and the chancellor figure out what to do in order to meet those fiscal rules. the fact that they didn�*t follow this process before it is exactly why things went so wrong. before it is exactly why things went so wroni. ., ~ i. , before it is exactly why things went so wroni. . ~ , . the french president, emmanuel macron, has said he hopes france�*s relationship with the uk has entered a "new phase" after talks with liz truss. they spoke at the first summit of a new political club of european nations in prague, where the prime minister described mr macron as a "friend".

this is not about moving closer to europe, this is about working with europe on issues that we both face. and we both face rising energy costs, that�*s why i took the decision to put in place the energy price guarantee, so people in britain weren�*t facing bills of up to £6,000. that�*s why we�*re working with our european neighbours on doing more on the north sea, on offshore wind, which i�*ve been talking about today. we�*re working with our partners on more nuclear energy, so that we�*re never in the same position again of being dependent on russia, and russia using energy as leverage against free democracies. our europe correspondent jessica parker outlined the significance of the summit. i mean, i think there was a lot of scepticism about this meeting and whether it would really deliver anything but what it does seem to have delivered is an improved relationship, for now, between the uk and france.

we have just heard liz truss talking, one of the things that she is coming back to the uk with is the potential re—admittance of the uk to the north sea energy co—operation, which means that they work together on things like interconnect is, offshore wind as well. but she also had this bilateral with emmanuel macron, the french president, where they also agreed to step up their efforts to tackle people trafficking, particularly those small boat crossings across the channel, so, they have agreed to come up with what they described as an ambitious package of measures this autumn, we did not really get any details. certainly there does seem to have been, after quite a lot of bitterness following brexit and then some rows between the uk and france over things like migrant crossings and fishing rights as well, and defence contracts, they did seem to actually get on yesterday and move that relationship forward to the extent that there is even going to be a uk

france summit at some point next year. so, liz truss is anxious not to say that she is moving closer to europe, of course she is trying to strike a eurosceptic note in the conservative leadership campaign, of course she didn�*t actually vote for brexit back in the 2016 referendum but i think certainly she has come here with an attitude of trying to build some bridges and has left with a slightly closer relationship with emmanuel macron who himself last night was pretty warm about the relationship, i was at a press conference that he was holding for that and he almost seemed a bit sentimental about the united kingdom and he said he hoped that there was a new phase of that relationship coming down the track. in italy, the government has signed a decree introducing new limits and new times for gas heating over the coming winter to help cope with the energy crisis. heating will be limited in both settings and times in many public and private buildings.

the italian public has been asked to turn central heating down by one degree and turn it off for an extra hour every day under new energy—saving plans, according to media reports. let�*s talk to our rome correspondent, mark lowen. so it sounds like there is a fair amount of detail and more people are being asked to do here? yes. amount of detail and more people are being asked to do here?— being asked to do here? yes, indeed, this is a decree _ being asked to do here? yes, indeed, this is a decree that _ being asked to do here? yes, indeed, this is a decree that was _ being asked to do here? yes, indeed, this is a decree that was signed - this is a decree that was signed today by the ecological transition minister which states that buildings must reduce their central heating consumption over the winter period by 15 days, so this central heating will be turned off for 15 days of the period, it will come on eight days later than usual, it will be switched off seven days earlier than usual. and also, italians are being asked to turn down their heating by 1 degrees and to turn it off for an extra hour a day. some municipalities and towns are going

farther. one town is limiting the christmas light usage. so there is a desire to spread the message from top down here that faced with a drastic drop in russian gas supply, italians need to adapt. italy was until the war broke out this year in ukraine the second largest importer of russian gas in the eu, it imported around 40% of its supply from russia. that has reduced considerably down to about 10% but still italians are being asked to combat the drop in russian gas by changing their habits white so combat the drop in russian gas by changing their habits white- changing their habits white so this is iioin changing their habits white so this is going well— changing their habits white so this is going well beyond _ changing their habits white so this is going well beyond a _ changing their habits white so this is going well beyond a public- is going well beyond a public information campaign, advising people to take action, which some countries are doing. what is the reaction to this so far?- reaction to this so far? well, talkin: reaction to this so far? well, talking to — reaction to this so far? well, talking to italians _ reaction to this so far? well, talking to italians about - reaction to this so far? well, j talking to italians about their soaring energy bills for example, just like in every country, energy

bills have gone through the roof here. we were speaking to a business a couple of weeks ago, an ice cream business in northern italy, the owner showed me his annual bills that have tripled in the space of a year from 5000 euros a that have tripled in the space of a yearfrom 5000 euros a month up that have tripled in the space of a year from 5000 euros a month up to 15,000 euros a month, and hejust can�*t cope. his business which has been going for 93 years, he is the third generation of the family to run it, he thinks they will have to close now and they will just run it, he thinks they will have to close now and they willjust come and switch off the lights and the electricity. so there are real fears here that as people�*s lives are being affected and livelihoods being affected by all of this, the public appetite for continuing to back sanctions on russia will dip, perhaps as quickly as the thermostats go down. of course italy has just had a thermostats go down. of course italy hasjust had a general thermostats go down. of course italy has just had a general election, thermostats go down. of course italy hasjust had a general election, a new government is about to come into power. the probably likely prime minister giorgia meloni has been in favour of backing ukraine and nato

but one of her coalition partners matias albini of the far right has publicly said italy should drop sanctions on moscow. —— mateo scalvini. the question will be that as italians face this increasingly common to, they are being asked to change their habits with bills soaring, will that further diminish the appetite to continue supporting ukraine and backing sanctions on moscow? a ., ukraine and backing sanctions on moscow? ~ ., ,, ukraine and backing sanctions on moscow? ,, ., ~' , ., two russian nationals apparently fleeing the country�*s recent military call—up to go and fight in ukraine have landed on a remote alaskan island. the men arrived on a small boat on tuesday on st lawrence island, located in the bering sea about 50 miles east of russia, according to the department of homeland security. they say the men are seeking asylum in the us and have been flown to anchorage for processing. nomia iqbal has the details. this is a really extraordinary story. two men fled russia in about

arriving in alaska, we know they arrived on the island of st lawrence which is about 37 mile from the russian mainland, which is closer to the foreign country than it is to the foreign country than it is to the rest of alaska. republican senators in the us confirmed that this happened and i have also reverted to the department of home and security. the department has vetted the two men and it is now up to them to determine whether or not they will get full admission to the us. the men are seeking asylum. it is pretty tricky given the heightened tensions that exist between the us and russia. both senators have also expressed their desire for more security in the american arctic circle, given the proximity of alaska to russia. they want more infrastructure to basically combat any kind of threats from russia. it is thought around 700,000 men fled russia since president putin announced this

partial draft last month. we know that most people have been fleeing the countries like kazakhstan and georgia and other neighbouring european countries, but the fact two men from russia have come to america is a first. president biden is pardoning all prior federal offences of marijuana possession and is ordering a review of its legal status. mr biden said that thousands of people have been denied employment, housing or education because of their past offences. here is some of what he had to say. no—one should be jailed just for using or possessing marijuana.

let�*s get more now on the office for budget responsibility preparing to submit its initialjudgment to the british government about its economic prospects. let�*s speak to pat mcfadden, labour�*s shadow chief secretary to the treasury. thank you for your time today. so we�*re not going to hear the details of this initial assessment from the office for budget responsibility, the independent forecasters who basically take a look and assess whether what there is saying about the economic process and our prospects match what they see. doesn�*t matter at this stage that we are not to see this initial forecast? we would not in normal circumstances but given everything that�*s happened over the last couple of weeks, do you think the public should see some of that detail? yes. should see some of that detail? yes, i do. and should see some of that detail? yes, i do- and i — should see some of that detail? yes, i do- and i do — should see some of that detail? yes, i do. and i do think— should see some of that detail? yes, i do. and i do think this _ should see some of that detail? yes i do. and i do think this matters. what we have learned, we didn�*t know

already, is that economic trust is a really important intangible quality, and that trust revolves around having good laws, transparent processes, independent institutions, proper oversight and decisions and so on, and the government was very reckless and cavalier in the way that they went about the mini budget a couple weeks ago. you have the firing of the treasury permanent secretary in the days running up to it. the obr had this information ready before that mini budget a couple of weeks ago, and the government refused to use it. they refused to publish it. so it has really been damaging what has happened. and the chaos we have seen in the markets with the falling pound and the pilot of pensions and the rise in mortgage rates isn�*t just about the individual measures

in that budget, it is the notion that these institutions and mechanisms, which are there to safeguard the uk�*s economic credibility, were being cast aside, and they are now in danger of paying and they are now in danger of paying and instability cost, and instability premium for disregarding those institutions. — z.....,,,........... e 316511; by its 77” fat mate by its very looking at what is by its very nature not a complete assessment from the obr, eagle ” nature not a complete assessment from the obr, eagle publishing the from the obr, could publishing the details cause further instability in making the markets more nervous? well, it is only not complete because the government is now in a situation where having caused this economic chaos through their mini budget two weeks ago, they are now scrabbling around for spending cuts to reassure the markets. this is a ridiculous situation. what should happen is they should revisit the mistakes that caused the economic chaos in the first place, not ask

other people to pay the price for their own political mistakes. that is the situation we are now in. everyone is thinking of course, whether it is here in the uk or around the world, about energy security, and i want to talk to you about the uk government�*s plans to allow around 100 new gas and oil exploration licences in the north sea. the government says it is compatible with its net zero targets. do you agree, to what extent do you think it does need to be further exploration of oil and gas in order to secure energy supplies? gas in order to secure energy avenues?— gas in order to secure energy su lies? ., ,, ., , ., ., supplies? the north sea is a mature field and we — supplies? the north sea is a mature field and we will _ supplies? the north sea is a mature field and we will need _ supplies? the north sea is a mature field and we will need gas _ supplies? the north sea is a mature field and we will need gas as - supplies? the north sea is a mature field and we will need gas as part i field and we will need gas as part of our transition but it is only part of the transition, it is not a long—term answer. the long—term answer has to be more investment in renewables and nuclear, to decrease our reliance on fossil fuels in the future. �* ., , future. but in the meantime, is iirantin future. but in the meantime, is granting those _ future. but in the meantime, is granting those lessons - future. but in the meantime, is granting those lessons is - future. but in the meantime, is granting those lessons is the i future. but in the meantime, is. granting those lessons is the right way to go? we

granting those lessons is the right wa to to? ~ ., �* granting those lessons is the right wa too? .,�* ~' granting those lessons is the right wa to to? j ~ ., granting those lessons is the right wa toio? ~ ., , way to go? we don't think that is the riiht way to go? we don't think that is the right way _ way to go? we don't think that is the right way forward. _ way to go? we don't think that is the right way forward. we - way to go? we don't think that is the right way forward. we think | way to go? we don't think that is i the right way forward. we think the better way forward is, yes, gas is a transition but invest more in renewables and nuclear to decrease our reliance on fossil fuels in the future, ratherthan our reliance on fossil fuels in the future, rather than a continuing to chase what is a mature and ultimately a declining resource in the north sea. fiat ultimately a declining resource in the north sea.— ultimately a declining resource in the north sea. ., n ., ,, ., ., the north sea. pat mcfadden, shadow chief secretary — the north sea. pat mcfadden, shadow chief secretary to _ the north sea. pat mcfadden, shadow chief secretary to the _ the north sea. pat mcfadden, shadow chief secretary to the treasury, - chief secretary to the treasury, thank you very much. some high profile public figures — including prince harry and sir eltonjohn — have begun legal action against the publishers of two british newspapers — the daily mail and the mail on sunday. the group alleges that associated newspapers used what they call "abhorrent criminal activity and gross breaches of privacy" to obtain information about them. associated newspapers has rejected the claims. the bbc�*s home affairs correspondent tom symonds has the story. veterans of the fight against media intrusion. now, prince harry, eltonjohn and his husband david furnish,

liz hurley and sadie frost have combined forces to take on the mail, along with, and this was a surprise, baroness doreen lawrence. she�*s had a warm relationship with the daily mail. two of her son stephen�*s killers were jailed in 2012. for more than a decade, the mail helped keep the case in the headlines. but this is what the lawyers for her and the others now say associated newspaperjournalists have been involved with — bugging cars and homes, listening to private telephone calls, paying police officers for sensitive information, obtaining medical and financial records. more serious allegations even than phone hacking, according to a lawyer who�*s been involved in legal action against associated newspapers. they are highly intrusive. they are a means of delving into the private lives of people, and private lives, which are protected by statute under the human rights act

and by convention by the european convention on human rights. so it is a gross invasion of privacy. if these things occurred, and it would be absolutely right and proper if they did occur that associated newspapers and hopefully some of their senior figures are held to account. phone hacking was not practised by the mail on sunday or the daily mail. that was the former mail editor in 2012. yesterday�*s statement from associated newspapers... baroness lawrence had been persuaded to endorse lies, the company said. it�*s headed for court and it�*s likely to take years to resolve. if the mail�*s owners were to lose, the stakes are enormous. tom symonds, bbc news.

to indonesia now, where six people have been charged over a football stadium disaster that killed 131 people at the weekend. a senior police chief said match organisers and police officers were among those being investigated on suspicion of criminal negligence. the bbc has been speaking to survivors and people who have lost loved ones in the crush. a warning: there�*s some distressing content in this report. off-camera: hello! child: hello!

now to some high—tech surgery developments in america. baby robbie is one of the first to have undergone stem cell patch surgery to mend spina bifida in the womb. it�*s hoped the pioneering research could help treat the condition — when the spinal cord and spine do not develop properly. russell trott reports. baby robbie is something of a medical miracle. she is one of the first to have treatment it is hoped will avoid spina bifida, the nerve damage that can result in a life of medical problems, endless operations and in some extreme cases, even total paralysis of the legs. surgeons have already used keyhole surgery on babies in the womb to mend the spinal canal. now, the us team have gone a step

further, fitting an implant to bridge the repair. it is a patch that contains immature cells called stem cells that can grow with the baby. we are really excited about the placenta. i mean, here is this amazing organ that grows and does itsjob in nine months and then it�*s over. and we think there is a lot of potential to use these cells for a variety of neurodegenerative, neuroprotective indications, and we�*re looking into that as well. three of the babies in the trial have now been born the team will monitor them for at least six years. it is not known what causes spina bifida, but prevention is better than a cure, and experts stressed the importance of women taking supplements around conception and in pregnancy, a cheap and easy intervention that can help prevent cases of spina bifida.

robbie and the other babies will have regular checkups to see their progress, with skills such as potty training and walking. she still has a long way to go, but herjourney to a more mobile future is well underway. russell trott, bbc news. a fire has damaged stone—carved statues on easter island. some of the charring is said to be irreparable. chile�*s cultural heritage undersecretary, carolina perez, said an as yet unknown number were affected by the blaze, which broke out on monday. easter island has about 900 of the oversized head statues which were carved by a polynesian tribe more than 500 years ago. in the northern hemisphere — it is now autumn. for millions of animals it will soon be time to hibernate —

sleeping through the winter months and waiting for spring. in the us state of alaska it�*s known as fat bear week. as bears in the katmai national park gorge themselves on salmon ahead of the winter, admirers are voting to crown one lucky bear, the fattest of them all. voting is open until the 11th of october — fat bear tuesday — when the champion will be crowned. and finally, in a world first, two arctic wolves have been cloned by a company in china in the last month. here is maya — the first wolf pup to be born — she�*s playing with her surrogate mother — who is a beagle. the arctic wolf is a subspecies of grey wolf native to canada�*s northern arctic archipelago. climate change is increasingly threatening its food supply, while human development like roads and pipelines are encroaching on its territory. more on those nobel prize winners coming up for you here on bbc news.

if you have not seen any rain so far today the chances are you will later. it will not be particularly wet but there will be some heavy showers and the winds will be fairly blustery. turning quite squally for a time. it is where we see the rain pick up for short spaces of time, very heavy and the winds become very gusty. that relates to this cold front which has been moving across northern england and north and west wales. pushes through mid—wales into the north west midlands, parts of yorkshire and lincolnshire. to the south and east of it it is where we stayed rust fungus. some isolated showers and southernmost counties but with the wind is relatively warm wind, whereas the breeze as it goes

westerly and more north—westerly will turn things a bit fresher as we finish the day. here are a mixture of sunshine and showers as a brightening up in northern england and north wales relative to what you have at the moment. this evening and overnight, while this evening at least, the heavy band of narrowing rain pushes through east anglia and the south—east, some will not see too much rain before that clears. tonightjust a few light too much rain before that clears. tonight just a few light showers too much rain before that clears. tonightjust a few light showers in the north and west, most will be dry. much cooler night, temperatures in the rural areas down and deliver single figures. a fresh start to the weekend but with this ridge of high pressure pushing on, many of you will have a dry start. it is not fully in we still see some showers in western scotland, northern ireland and maybe north west england, and around the likes of shetland and orkney but even these will become fewer in number compared with today. some cloud building up but for most, sunny spells on saturday. the vast majority will stay dry. temperatures in the south, fresher than today and in the north a little bit milder. sunday, a cool start in the south—east where the

high pressure holds on but these fronts signal yet more rain after what has been a wet week in parts of west scotland and northern ireland. the rain heaviest air in the morning, may be pushing into north—west england and gwinnett through the afternoon. brightening up through the afternoon. brightening up to the highlands and islands later. always staying dressed even with more cloud building through the day, south and east wales, the midlands, east anglia, southern counties of england and the channel islands. next week, you will notice various areas of low pressure in batches of rain swinging their way through. it will be quite a blustery week, some of those winds especially strong at times. dress in the first—half of the week, turning wettest from mid week honours.

this is bbc news. the headlines at 11pm: social care providers in england warn that a complete overhaul of the system is needed to prevent millions of people from being left without support. the uk�*s fiscal watchdog prepares to deliver its initial forecast for the economy to the chancellor, kwasi kwarteng, today. its full report will be published next month. this year�*s nobel peace prize has been jointly awarded to the belarussian human rights activist ales bialiatski and two organisations — the russian human rights group memorial and the centre for civil liberties in ukraine. this year�*s laureates have revitalised and honoured alfred nobel�*s vision of peace and fraternity between nations.

president biden has warned the risk of nuclear conflict is at its highest level since the cuban missile crisis, 60 years ago. and... miracle baby. find out how robbie�*s life was transformed while she was still in the womb. and at 11:30 we�*ll be answering your questions on the cost of living, with our panel of experts in a special edition of your questions answered social care providers are warning that millions of people could be left without support, unless there is a complete overhaul of the system. care england, which is the body that represents independent services, says a proper vision is needed or the nhs "will be on its knees".

jeremy cooke reports. are we ready for our lovely...? wendy hughes is bringing care into the community... your medication, sweetheart. really? whey—aye. ..to mark, an ex—navy diver now living with dementia. that�*s fabulous. for mark and his family, this is priceless help. i�*ll do the dishes. next stop the bathroom. but today�*s poll by ipsos mori for bbc news suggests more than 70% of people aged over 55 are not confident that care is reaching many of those who need it. a shortage of staff like wendy lies at the heart of what many call the care crisis. let�*s go. better wages would help. often wendy�*s appointments run over, and it�*s time she doesn�*t get paid for. my wage isn�*t the living wage any more. that�*s rubbish. on paper, it�*s a living wage but it�*s not. notjust me, every other carer out there. everybody doing this kind of work. the government says it doesn�*t set pay levels for care workers,

and that it�*s a matter for local authorities and other care providers. but it is planning to invest £15 million to recruit more staff from overseas. the care sector wants radical, urgent change. if we get this wrong, there�*ll be hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people who will be in crisis. we�*ll have an nhs that will be absolutely clogged with people and the entire system, both health and social care, will be on its knees. so the stakes here are extremely high. it�*s been a year since the government announced plans to introduce a national insurance levy in part to help improve adult social care. wonderful. that�*s now been scrapped, leaving carers and care providers asking where the money will come from. jeremy cooke, bbc news, newcastle. now we can have a cup of coffee. we�*re joined now by nadra ahmed, who is the chair of the national care association, which represents small— and medium—sized care providers

and affiliated local associations. just picking up on that statistic, more than 70% of those over 75 are not confident there will be the support they need. what are you seeing in terms of people not getting the support they need? i think the level of need is now pretty much out of control, which is putting pressure on the nhs and on a&e services and then on the beds being used in the nhs itself. this is just unacceptable. consistent lies being told about fixing social care and nothing tangible being done to take any reform forward. hagar care and nothing tangible being done to take any reform forward.— to take any reform forward. how are ou to take any reform forward. how are you feeling — to take any reform forward. how are you feeling about _ to take any reform forward. how are you feeling about the _ to take any reform forward. how are you feeling about the winter - to take any reform forward. how are you feeling about the winter ahead? j you feeling about the winter ahead? i think we are all really concerned. providers are bracing themselves. we have very, very challenging

situations ahead. the workforce who are the lifeblood of everything we do and revalue them considerably, they are the ones we are not able to get. there are vacancies in our sector which are beyond comprehension. there are vacancies in the nhs and there is nojoined up thinking going on. we have coronavirus on the rise and the cost of living on the energy crisis is having a major impact on the stability of businesses where people are really worried. this is october and we are hearing about our in care homes and hearing about providers being very concerned because they just cannot get the workforce and we cannot rely on agencies because they are bleeding the sector drive. they are bleeding the sector drive. they are charging extortionate rates of money to suppliers. . so are charging extortionate rates of money to suppliers. .— are charging extortionate rates of money to suppliers. . so what is the answer? the —

money to suppliers. . so what is the answer? the answer _ money to suppliers. . so what is the answer? the answer is _ money to suppliers. . so what is the answer? the answer is we _ money to suppliers. . so what is the answer? the answer is we have - money to suppliers. . so what is the answer? the answer is we have to i answer? the answer is we have to look at reform _ answer? the answer is we have to look at reform immediately - answer? the answer is we have to look at reform immediately and i answer? the answer is we have to . look at reform immediately and there is an immediate issue about making sure we stabilise the social care sector and make sure the promises we make and those who need our services can receive them and we are able to deliver them and that�*s one of the main thing that needs to happen straightaway, like last month, but straightaway, like last month, but straightaway, and then we need to have that sustainable plan, the reform activity happening with all of the costings met behind it. this is a crisis that has been bubbling under the surface for ten years and we keep being told it�*s going to be fixed any minute now and then there are delays, there is procrastination and its peoples lives that are being affected by it. real people. they are not receiving the care that they have a right to receive.—

have a right to receive. when you sa the have a right to receive. when you say the first _ have a right to receive. when you say the first thing _ have a right to receive. when you say the first thing that _ have a right to receive. when you say the first thing that needs - have a right to receive. when you say the first thing that needs to l have a right to receive. when you | say the first thing that needs to be done is to stabilise the social care sector, is not straightforward is it, so how do you do that in the short term. we need to make sure that things like the cost of living crisis on the energy bills we are talking about, they are dealt with on the caps are putting quickly for the social care sector, but more importantly we need to have a really good methodology where we can attract people into the sector. find attract people into the sector. and art of attract people into the sector. and part of that _ attract people into the sector. fific part of that will be attract people into the sector. a"ic part of that will be to make attract people into the sector. aic part of that will be to make sure attract people into the sector. a"ic part of that will be to make sure we do give them a real living wage that enable them to stay and be sustainable and see social care as a career pathway, not as a transient moment in time. we have to make the job more attractive. people who do come to work for us come and find it very rewarding that especially now with the cost of living crisis, the pay we can give them based on the

funding received by the local authorities through central government�*s settlements is just not enough. the pathway of the funding reaching the front line is broken and they need to get that right. thank you forjoining us. the independent economic forecaster, the office for budget responsibility, is preparing to submit its initialjudgement on the prospects for the economy to the chancellor this morning. we won�*t know what is in the draft report until budget day, which is currently planned for late november — but there�*s lots of speculation about how this will affect the cost of living. let�*s remind ourselves how we got here. two weeks ago kwasi kwarteng unveiled his mini budget, claiming the biggest tax cuts in a generation. the obr wasn�*t allowed to assess the economic impact of tax cuts, which spooked global markets, leading to a drop in the pound�*s value. it�*s affected the mortgage market with interest rates on a typical five—year fixed

mortgage now topping 6% for the first time in 12 years. national grid has also warned homes they could face winter power cuts in a worst case scenario. and due to some of the world�*s top oil—producing countries agreeing to cut their output, petrol prices could rise across the globe. conservative mp and chair of the treasury committee, mel stride, had previously written to the chancellor asking that he make the full obr forecast public "immediately". does he call for some of that intial detail to be published now? i think what is required here is certainty, uncertainty arrives when the full forecast has been provided. it's the full forecast has been provided. it�*s quite possible that in the forecast the chancellor will be looking at today that not all of the measures they have been considering are even included at this point, so it is part of the process, and i

don�*t think it would be right to make public that part of the process and you have to allow officials and treasury officials on the obr on the chancellor to work their way towards that full forecast in that way, but the full forecast could be ready in as little as a few weeks�* time and i think it should be coming at three until three the until three the markets until three the marks at until three ti opportunity. ntil pat mcfadden, was calling for the obr�*s draft report to be published — but what if its intial forcast caused further instability in global markets? it's it�*s only not complete because of the government, having put themselves on the situation by having the mini budget they are hf, the

2&2. ridiculous e is 232. the ulous e is 232. the mistakes is they should revisit the mistakes that caused the economic chaos in the first place and not ask other people to pay the price for their own political mistakes and that is the situation we are in. i�*m joined now by sir charlie bean, who is the former deputy governor of the bank of england. and also worked at the obr for five years. thanks forjoining us. just a little bit of detail on what will have landed or what will be landing on the chancellor�*s —— today from the obr. how much detail is going to be in it because everyone is desperate to see it, but we are in the markets won�*t get to see it for a little while yet. the markets won't get to see it for a little while yet.— a little while yet. well, you and the markets — a little while yet. well, you and the markets won't _ a little while yet. well, you and the markets won't ever - a little while yet. well, you and the markets won't ever get - a little while yet. well, you and the markets won't ever get to l a little while yet. well, you and i the markets won't ever get to see the markets won�*t ever get to see this particular draft forecast. the standard processed, which normally comes out in ten weeks, the first

forecast that goes to the chancellor, so this is both an economic forecast and the economy and also an associated forecast of the public finances is an update in this case of the one from the spring, coming from rishi sunakfor all of the latest news, market movements and any measures that the government might have taken in the interim. whether or not it includes the measures announced in the fiscal event a fortnight ago will depend exactly when they close it, but certainly it will be quite straightforward, even if it is not directly included for the ob are —— of the obr to indicate the likely consequences of the mini budget for the public finances. i think the key

thing to say about this is that this is an ongoing process, so normally, over the next three weeks or so there will be continual refining of there will be continual refining of the forecast in conjunction with departments and the chancellor will be starting to think about any measures he wants to take and the fiscal event that accompanies the final publication. there is another version of the forecast which would normally be sent to the chancellor in about three weeks�* time known as the pre—measures forecast and then thatis the pre—measures forecast and then that is normally locked so its a stable base for him to work from, and the chancellor defines what measures he wants to introduce over the next couple of weeks and documents get written and the final forecast then gets published. the

thing i would want to inject at this point, which is very important, i think is that this first draft forecast will almost certainly reveal a substantial deterioration in the prospects of the public finances in the medium term since march. back in march that then chancellor rishi sunak left himself 30 billion of headroom relative to what he needed to do to get debt to gdp ratio falling in the immediate term. since that forecast the deterioration in the economic output and that means higher benefits, benefits gone to inflation and more

particularly on would rise in interest rates... particularly on would rise in interest rates. . .— particularly on would rise in interest rates... sorry to come in and everything — interest rates... sorry to come in and everything you _ interest rates... sorry to come in and everything you are _ interest rates... sorry to come in and everything you are saying, i interest rates... sorry to come in i and everything you are saying, and it will all be in the obr report. , it�*s all the stuff that is out there, isn�*t it? everybody knows what the inflation rate is. what the growth is. i what the inflation rate is. what the irowth is. ., �* ~' what the inflation rate is. what the irowth is. ., �* ~ what the inflation rate is. what the irowthis. ~ growth is. i don't think most people have woken — growth is. i don't think most people have woken up _ growth is. i don't think most people have woken up to _ growth is. i don't think most people have woken up to the _ growth is. i don't think most people have woken up to the implications l growth is. i don't think most people l have woken up to the implications of all of this for the public finances. when you say most people, this is about targeting what the government is doing and the bank of england and the government they know the background. the government they know the background-— the government they know the back round. , , ., , ., background. they will be able to work out the _ background. they will be able to work out the implications - background. they will be able to work out the implications but. background. they will be able to work out the implications but i l work out the implications but i don�*t think mps or the public at large woken up for it because insider shortfall of, sorry, a headroom of 30 billion which liz

truss is claiming it could be used to finance the tax cuts during the leadership campaign, even before the measure is a fortnight ago, it�*s likely there was a shortfall of the order of 20 billion to which the government have laid on top measures which were 45 billion and are now just 45 billion with the reversal of the illumination of 45% in the tax bracket. 50 the illumination of 45% in the tax bracket. ,, ., the illumination of 45% in the tax bracket. ., ., , ., the illumination of 45% in the tax bracket. ., ., bracket. so in other words a black hole in expenditure _ bracket. so in other words a black hole in expenditure of— bracket. so in other words a black hole in expenditure of around - bracket. so in other words a black hole in expenditure of around 63. hole in expenditure of around 63 billion. , ., ., �* billion. yes well, now, iwouldn't be too precise — billion. yes well, now, iwouldn't be too precise on _ billion. yes well, now, iwouldn't be too precise on the _ billion. yes well, now, iwouldn't be too precise on the numbers i be too precise on the numbers because there�*s a lot of moving parts in the ob are forecast but the point is there is a very big hole to be filled and talking about indexing benefits with respect to pay growth rather than inflation, which saves about £5 billion and is highly contentious isjust a drop in the

bucket. this is a very big challenge for the chancellor to come up with measures that will convince the markets that the public finances are on a sustainable track in the medium term. ., �* ., ., ,, i. ., term. charlie bean, thank you for “oinini term. charlie bean, thank you for joining us- _ term. charlie bean, thank you for joining us- you — term. charlie bean, thank you for joining us. you are _ term. charlie bean, thank you for joining us. you are welcome. - a belarussian activist and two human rights organisations have been awarded the nobel peace prize for 2022. the winners were ales bialiatski, the banned russian group, memorial and ukraine�*s center for civil liberties. speaking at a press conference in the past hour, berit reiss—andersen, the chair of the norweigan nobel committee, explained why they had chosen three winner. through their consistent efforts in favour of human values, anti—militarism and principles of law, this year�*s laureates have revitalised and honoured alfred nobel�*s vision of peace and fraternity between nations.

revitalised and honoured alfred nobel�*s vision of peace and fraternity between nations. a vision most needed in the world today. let�*s get more now from our eastern europe correspondent sarah rainsford. tell us a bit more about the organisations and individuals. i think it's interesting they've gone think it�*s interesting they�*ve gone for organisations and civil rights defenders extremely well known in their countries but perhaps not so well known beyond, ales bialiatski was the founder of a very important group inside belarus which for years has been documenting the decline in human rights and the increased repression and he himself has been a victim of that, notjust once but twice and was imprisoned for several years back in 2011, widely seen as a peace charge against him and he is behind bars right now as the prizes awarded because he was arrested

after the 2020 process, the mass wave of protest against alexander lukashenko, so he has been honest —— honoured by the price, and extremely well known in russia, found in the last days of the soviet union, documenting historic crimes, the political repression is of the stalin era, making sure that those weren�*t forgotten on the lessons of that time were loaned in modern russia where the increase in political oppression again has been immense in the past four years. thank you, sarah. president biden has suggested that the world faces its most problematic time. he said they were trying to figure out the way of the war in ukraine. american officials say there is no sign that russia is preparing to use a nuclear weapon. the comments come as russian

officials have been praising president putin in congratulations to mark his seventieth birthday. i�*m joined now by bill browder, co—founder of hermitage capital management and a long time campaigner against russian corruption — in 2005 he was deported from that country and declared a threat to russian national security. so, in terms of saving face and how much pressure vladimir putin is under, just a week ago he had that formal ceremony to our necks for areas of ukraine as russian territory and what we are seeing on the ground since is that the ukrainians are continuing to take back a large parts of the territory. so how do you see vladimir putin�*s options now? so how do you see vladimir putin's options now?— options now? well, the war is not iioin well options now? well, the war is not going well for— options now? well, the war is not going well for him _ options now? well, the war is not going well for him at _ options now? well, the war is not going well for him at all. - options now? well, the war is not going well for him at all. he - going well for him at all. he started the thing thinking he would win in three days and here we are now in a situation where not only is

he not winning but he�*s losing territory that they had claimed as far back as 2014, so this is really a major problem for vladimir putin. it's a major problem for vladimir putin. it�*s particularly a problem because he did this war in order to project his image as a strong man in russia and if he does this war and it looks like a weak man, that potentially puts his own power at risk. so he has real pressure on him to turn this thing around and he does not have that many things to draw on because his military is decimated and his people don�*t want to fight and his people don�*t want to fight and he is surrounded by sanctions that prevent him from getting more military equipment to progress this war. 50 military equipment to progress this war, . ~' ., military equipment to progress this war. ., , ., ., war. so back to the question of o tions war. so back to the question of options he _ war. so back to the question of options he will _ war. so back to the question of options he will be _ war. so back to the question of options he will be considering. | war. so back to the question of. options he will be considering. he has repeatedly talked about the threat of nuclear weapons and joe

biden is warning that he is not joking when he says that and it has to be taken seriously and the current risk to the world is greater thanit current risk to the world is greater than it has been for 60 years. do you think he is really being serious when he talks about using nuclear weapons? when he talks about using nuclear wea ons? , when he talks about using nuclear weaons? , ., , ., .,, weapons? putin is a guy who was essentially _ weapons? putin is a guy who was essentially a _ weapons? putin is a guy who was essentially a psychopath - weapons? putin is a guy who was essentially a psychopath and - weapons? putin is a guy who was essentially a psychopath and will| weapons? putin is a guy who was i essentially a psychopath and will do anything to save his own skin. having said that, we have to look at what would the use of a nuclear weapon accomplish in this war? if he were to set up a tactical nuclear weapon on the ukrainians, would he suddenly when the war? no, he would just kill a lot of ukrainians and russia from all of isolate its allies like china and india and brazil and so on and he would then be in exactly the same position he is in now except that he would be surrounded and probably nato would get involved and it seems like a much more powerful threat than him following through with it but you

can never tell with vladimir putin, he is a guy who always unexpectedly escalates, so you can�*t rule it out. thank you forjoining us. rail firm avanti west coast has been warned it needs to "drastically improve services" after its contract to run the london to glasgow line was extended byjust six months. the decision means it will continue to run services until next april, the department for transport said. avanti has come under fire after cutting the number of trains between london and manchester by a third in august. the company has apologised for problems caused by the reduced services. and joining me now is our business correspondent marc ashdown. so where does this go? as you say, since it won — so where does this go? as you say, since it won the _ so where does this go? as you say, since it won the franchise _ so where does this go? as you say, since it won the franchise in - so where does this go? as you say, since it won the franchise in 2019, l since it won the franchise in 2019, avante has run the key route through the uk going from london euston all the uk going from london euston all the way to glasgow and edinburgh and had always run three trains an hour but back in august it was cut by about a third, so roughly one train an hour and it blamed the lack of

drivers and wanted to give passenger greater certainty of the timetable which has led to huge criticism and andy burnham has led the charge and described chaos on the trains, passengers in stressful situations, dangerous stampedes at london euston on the ticket sales, he says it�*s difficult to get hold of tickets and very far in advance you can�*t book tickets and they are very expensive. he�*s not the only one. the mayor of london has also been criticising it and there have been calls for avanti to be stripped of the franchise entirely. the contract was due to expire on the government have the option to extend by ten years or cancel it altogether and what they�*ve done is given them a short extension for six months. the transport secretary said services are two and one have been unacceptable and they must drastically improve the services in the short period of time and while the short period of time and while the company has taken positive steps it must do more to deliver certainty to its passengers. avanti says it�*s been training more drivers on the issue was the reliance on overtime

and drivers voluntarily doing overtime to fulfil the timetable. first group welcomes the extension and says it allows them to focus on delivering the plan and the 11th of december is the time they say they will get a full timetable back and critics say that six weeks for passengers and it cannot come soon enough. passengers and it cannot come soon enou:h. . ., passengers and it cannot come soon enou:h. ., ,, i. passengers and it cannot come soon enou:h. ., ~' , passengers and it cannot come soon enou:h. . ,, ,, , . passengers and it cannot come soon enou.h_ ., ~' , . ~' now it�*s time for a look at the weather with matt taylor. if you�*ve not seen any rain so far today the chances are you will do later. it won�*t be a particular wet day but there will be heavy showers and the wind will be blustery and turning squally for a time and that is where we see the rain pick up for a short space of time, very heavy on the winds become costly and that�*s linked to the cold front working across north and west wales and as we go through the afternoon it pushes into the north west midlands, parts of yorkshire and lincolnshire and to the south and east where we stayed dry, a few isolated showers

in southern counties but even though the wind is picking up it�*s a relatively warm wind, 19 or 20 degrees but as we go west and then north—west it will turn things a bit fresher as we finished the day elsewhere. here, a mixture of sunshine and showers and brightening up sunshine and showers and brightening up for north—west england and wales relative to what you have at the moment. through the evening and overnight, the heavy band of narrowing rain and pushes through east anglia and the south—east and some will not see too much rain before it clears and tonight a few showers in the north and west, mostly dry and are much cooler night tonight with temperatures in rural areas down in low single figures. a fresh start to the weekend but with this ridge of high pressure pushing in, many, a dry stop. it�*s not fully in, many, a dry stop. it�*s not fully in so we will see showers in western england and the likes of shetland and orkney but these will become fewer in number compared with today and a bit of cloud building up but for most sunny spells through saturday and the vast majority will

stay dry and temperatures in the south fresher than today and in the north a little bit milder. monday, the ridge of high pressure holds on but the weather fronts signal more rain after what has been a wet week in parts of western scotland and northern ireland. rain is heaviest in the morning, may be pushing into north—west england and gwyneth through the afternoon and brightening up in the highlands and islands but staying dry and more cloud building in the day. south and east wales, the middle east, southern islands and for a glimpse into next week, various areas of low pressure and batches of rain swinging their way through and it will be a blustery week and some of those when strong at times. driest in the first half of the week and turning wetter midweek onwards. see you later.

hello. with the cost of living rising at its fastest rate in 40 years, welcome to this special edition of your questions answered. over the next half hour,

we will be examining in detail