this is bbc news. we will have the headlines and all the main news stories for you at the top of the hour straight after this programme. i'm chris mason in the westminster newscast hub. i like that renaming. let's talk about all things. we should say it is about six o'clock. we should say that because we know the pace of things now. that this gets overtaken, but

we have, you know, the biggest names you could ask for in the world of political pr, if you like. ,, ., ., ., , world of political pr, if you like. ,, ., ., ., like. sir craig overhears to for david _ like. sir craig overhears to for david cameron, - like. sir craig overhears to for david cameron, and i like. sir craig overhears to i for david cameron, and who like. sir craig overhears to - for david cameron, and who used to work for tony blair lazzez there's a lot to talk about. what do you mean? laughs. the one question for both of you, put yourself back into the building that you both used to work in. the phone rings, it is someone like alex or me. what do you say? do you answer? do you answer? do you answer? do you pick up the phone? how do you spin yourself out of this is the thought? depends what's going on. i don't — depends what's going on. i don't know is the answer. i think— don't know is the answer. i think what has happened as you have _ think what has happened as you have gone through the whole kind — have gone through the whole kind of— have gone through the whole kind of dan simmons. —— they — — they have —— they have gone for somebody who so_ —— they have gone for somebody who so clearly out of her dad, can't — who so clearly out of her dad, can't do — who so clearly out of her dad, can't do the job. i suspect what _ can't do the job. i suspect what is _ can't do the job. i suspect what is happening there, they

are all— what is happening there, they are all probably telling her things— are all probably telling her things aren't as bad they seem. they— things aren't as bad they seem. they are — things aren't as bad they seem. they are all probably giving her bits_ they are all probably giving her bits of the news that she wants — her bits of the news that she wants to _ her bits of the news that she wants to hear. meanwhile, i think— wants to hear. meanwhile, i think kwasi kwarteng distracts me as — think kwasi kwarteng distracts me as somebody — he is on a different_ me as somebody — he is on a different planet, so the honest answer— different planet, so the honest answer is — different planet, so the honest answer is i don't know what i would — answer is i don't know what i would do _ answer is i don't know what i would do. i think they are in such— would do. i think they are in such a — would do. i think they are in such a mess, and it seems like everything _ such a mess, and it seems like everything they do is making it worse — everything they do is making it worse. there isn't a clear strategy _ worse. there isn't a clear strategy. it was interesting today, _ strategy. it was interesting today, james cleverly said, our plan _ today, james cleverly said, our plan is — today, james cleverly said, our plan is to— today, james cleverly said, our plan is to grow the economy. that's— plan is to grow the economy. that's not— plan is to grow the economy. that's not a plan, that's an objective _ that's not a plan, that's an objective-— that's not a plan, that's an objective. but what are the objectors _ objective. but what are the objectors available - objective. but what are the objectors available to - objective. but what are the i objectors available to them? isn't part of the point of this, whatever way liz truss and her team go to, this, whatever way liz truss and herteam go to, if this, whatever way liz truss and her team go to, if she goes for tax cuts than a credibility as a problem, she is already apparently rolling out spending cuts, so it lives with her budgetary black so it is there

a common strategy that could get her out of this? this isn't quite checkmate for her but — this isn't quite checkmate for her but it— this isn't quite checkmate for her but it is close. there is a system, _ her but it is close. there is a system, there is a term for it. inaudible it basically means... angie _ inaudible it basically means... angle beads? no angle beads. it 'ust angle beads? no angle beads. it just means that any move you make will— just means that any move you make will cause a huge problem and i_ make will cause a huge problem and i think— make will cause a huge problem and i think that is a situation they— and i think that is a situation they are _ and i think that is a situation they are in. they are in a situation _ they are in. they are in a situation where they need to deal— situation where they need to deal with the world the way it is, and — deal with the world the way it is, and you have to take some serious — is, and you have to take some serious pain in order to have the — serious pain in order to have the possibility of surviving. i mean, we're talking about comms, because you've got me and craig here, but it really isn't about the comms. this is what are they actually going to do as a government, as a prime minister, as a chancellor, as a cabinet, what are they going to do? and i get the sense they're digging themselves ever deeper into a hole, because they're not confronting the reality early. i saw george osborne today saying, you know,

we all know what they're going to do, they're going to do some massive screeching u—turn at some point. for god's sake, get on with it. now, if they are, i would definitely agree with that. do it now, do it quickly. so they said our mistake was not to not to prepare the ground. well, that is such a basic error to make. one of the first things kwarteng does, he goes in, they sack tom scholar... tom scholar was the permanent secretary to the treasury. permanent secretary. they say, you know, we don't need you, but they are exactly the sort of people who would have been saying, look, if we do that, this is going to happen. and the comms people would be saying that if you do that, have we thought through the answer to that? and i was watching kwarteng being interviewed by faisal islam. i mean, you can't have a chancellor in a situation like this whose first word is "er" and whose third word is "um". they have not thought through the answers to obvious questions. well, kwasi kwarteng was asked some of those questions by faisal islam, as you mentioned... anybody would have thought i set that up! as a professional podcaster! we should have had podcast bingo at the beginning,

when were you going to mention it! that was restraint i hadn't anticipated, it's been at least five minutes! you've ruined the brilliant segue, it was so smooth before, alastair! we were saying kwasi kwarteng was interviewed by faisal islam, the bbc�*s economics editor, in washington today, we can have a little listen to what he said because he was asked about the possibility of changing his position on some of these things. are you going to u—turn on big i measures, further big measures in your mini budget, _ as many seem to be speculating on right now? our position hasn't changed. i will come up with the medium—term fiscal plan on the 31st of october, as i said earlier in the week, and there'll be more detail there. and you'll be chancellor and liz truss will be - prime minister this time next month? i absolutely, 100%, i'm not going anywhere. that line, "i'm not going anywhere" can be interpreted both ways, kind of an unfortunate thing to say. craig, on the specifics of the strategy from the chancellor today, i mean, it strikes me he couldn't really say anything else.

he's thousands of miles away, you can't sort of preempt a u—turn without actually announcing it. and it's the prime minister, i guess, who's ultimately making the decisions, and if he hadn't done the interview, having announced that, people would have panicked. try and imagine yourself into his situation. - you know, he's painted himself into a bit of a corner, _ but he is sitting in- washington, knowing that in westminster, the whatsapp groups are going absolutely. wild, and you two will have both seen this today. - but the gossip is, and i don't know whether it will come i to pass or not, that he is likely to be sacked l by the weekend and i replaced by sajid javid. that is one piece of gossip - that is doing the rounds today. it may or may not be true, i but knowing that when you're the chancellor and you have to go and face the media i and you have to give an answer, is an impossible situation - to put somebody in. and i think that that tension between the two of them i at the moment is going to be incredibly tough. i there will literally be people i in number ten at the moment, and people who are close i to liz truss, saying the only way out of this is to firei

the person that you live in the same street as, - is considered your political soulmate, literally- lives in the same street in greenwich, and in the same street in downing street, - that you're very close to, the only way out of this i is to fire this... and politics is a terrible l game, you really discover who your friends are when push comes to shove and your - survival is up against somebody else's. . but i'll tell you what, i think that she came in as prime minister, i mean, elected by the tory party, probably the most important appointment that you make is who's your chancellor of the exchequer. that was the case for tony blair and gordon brown, it was the case for david cameron with george osborne. and i think as she does that, bearing in mind i heard john curtice on the radio earlier today, the polling guy, and he was saying that, uniquely for somebody particularly so young in her premiership, she is not liked, and she's not seen as competent. that is toxic. and when you suddenly say, i'm going to get rid of the guy that i appointed to do what i want to do on the economy, because i've become this sort of mad libertarian, right out on the right

of the conservative party, and you fire him and then pretend that because you bring in a new face, something's going to be better, i think it will make even worse for her. if they do get rid of her, which i think they will eventually, by the way, but if they do get rid of her, the one thing they are going to have to avoid at all costs is putting it back to the tory party members, because they will then, i suspect, do something as crazy. and so i think if you're in a crisis, you have to think about where is this going to end, what is the end point of this. now, i think the end point is she's toast, i think she's gone. i think once you've been defined so strongly, so early, so negatively, and it's gone into people's pockets, their mortgages, their pensions, the big—picture economy and the small—picture economy, i don't think you can come back from it. double alastair bingo with the podcast and brexit! are we going to burnley? we haven't had the name of the podcast yet, chris! shall we?

what's it called, alastair? i don't like doing that naked promotion, i really don't. it's worth just talking about the options, of course, that liz truss may look at, because one of the ideas that's been kicking around today, chris, and you would have heard it a lot, is this idea about is there an option to row back on elements of the mini budget and the one that's been thrown around is corporation tax. what they've said is they're not going to proceed with the rise in corporation tax — might they now, is the question, now to kind of like salvage...? just to pick up that point... this came up yesterday during prime minister's questions, so it's worth reminding ourselves of the position the prime minister was pretty clear on as of prime minister's questions on wednesday. what we are doing is simply not putting up corporation tax. it's not a tax cut, we're just not raising corporation tax. and i feel it would be wrong, in a time when we are trying to attract investment into our country, at a time of global economic slowdown, to be raising taxes. spending the whole afternoon

over the road, talking to mps, at every level of the conservative party, people in government and outside, yeah, one idea is something around corporation tax, but kind of every idea, every single idea, seems to be in open discussion as to what you do. and, look, alastair— and i will both have been been in situations, where basically you're on the run and you're i looking for a position to - actually draw a line and stop. i think the danger that they've got in considering is almost. like you get to a point i where you're constantly changing, you're . constantly moving. what they need is some kind of definitive move, | which is a big, bold . end and draws a line. i thinkjust saying we're - going to u—turn on corporation tax isn't enough. it'll be, what'sl the next thing? what are you going to do on fracking? i what are you going to do on planning? | what's going to happen- with the uprating of benefits? what's going to happenl when the obr comes up and says your numbers don't add up? - so they need some moment where they can really, - really draw a line. i'm not sure i know where - that is, but that's why they're thinking of getting.

rid of the chancellor. it's your guys job to go around talking to mps, and i've been amazed, this is me, alastair campbell, tory party bogeyperson... we love you. i've been getting messages from tory mps. who? well, i'm not going say, because they'll stop sending me the messages. but you know, i don't know if you've got the new european on the bingo, but i've written my column this week about it, and they say the most extraordinary things. the other day one who actually said, you know, carry on calling out this... ..he said a bad word show and i said, what are you going to do? he said, we're going to keep defeating until she's gone. that's a tory mp taking to me, never mind you, the bbc. 30 odd days into her premiership, that's the astonishing thing. even brian clough got 44 at leeds, chris. what about labour in this? because, i mean, what do you think keir starmer should be doing at the moment? should he be keeping quiet, keeping out of it, sort of letting the conservative party go down the route they're

going down, which is obviously an awful lot of turmoil? no, i don't think, there's two things to say about that. i think labour should be attacking, you should always be attacking your opponents when they're weak, and labour should be doing that. but i think one of the reasons has been this sense of a feeling of kind of movement towards labour because actually even though the tories were already in a quite a lot of turmoil at labour's conference, i thought keir had a real sense of confidence, and i thought particularly the green energy thing, i thought he had a sense of there's a different agenda coming here. i want to see more of that agenda, and i think actually keir should be doing more of the kind of the forward policy stuff. you have not got it in the bag, because, yes, you've got the government imploding, but things can change. let's just say that they do get rid of truss and they manage to install sunak or... things will change. and labour are coming from miles behind. first of all, they've| got a psephological mountain to climb. but i also think that it is. worth constantly reminding people of the volatility

of politics. _ a year ago, borisjohnson,| people were talking about, what was he going to do - in his third term, seriously? a month later, we started hearing about partygate, i in less than a year he was gone. - it is an incredibly| volatile situation. i think that actually it's - almost impossible for liz truss to come back for this, i but it is vaguely possible that the conservative party can revive in another way. - how? well, i think that you start with basically persuading i people that you can havei another person in charge. the difficulty with that, i think the pressure - for a general election becomes massive. i i think that, you know, - you start getting the palace involved then saying, well, i can you credibly have a fourth leader in a one - government term? and all sorts of - problems like that. but i do think that where the conservative mps - are getting to is last i week at the conference they were saying it would be insane to change. - i think now you're getting more and more people saying maybe| we just need to get somebody in to steady the ship - and limit the damage.

another tory mp that i was actually with the other day who was asked by one of his constituents, be honest with me, what is better for the country now? a labour government led by keir starmer or this conservative government led by liz truss? and he said, ijust can't answer that. that's a tory mp. is it the problem with conservative mps, the point you alluded to, that they've gone through this series of leaders over the course of them being in power and what is left is a party that's kind of ideologically fractured and that's what we're seeing playing out, because you have got so many different groupings within the conservative party right now. and you mentioned some of the other things, fracking, planning, all of these things which we know are potential flashpoints for the party. so do you get to the point where, the point you are making is, i think after 12 years in power, you kind of come to a point where... you sort of show your age. yeah. i think, well, you show your age, i think every time - you change leader, therel is a whole group of senior people who basically l end up disaffected and on the backbenches and you're right, the conservative party. is now in a situation—

where it's got multiple groups like that and those people don't want to lie down - and they do want to criticise i and, frankly, they want to say, be vindicated and say, look, we just spent eight weeks . of a conservative leadership conference talking about. fantasy economics and within seven weeks you blew- the whole thing up. so that is a massive issue. i do think a lot of people are starting to talk - about maybe they do need to just experience a time i where you've learned the lesson and then you come together. i the labour party... you mean time in opposition? well, yes, the labour party, | let's not forget, not that long ago was trying to persuade us that jeremy corbyn should be| leader of the country, - which was frankly a completely insane situation and most people realised it. - they've come to their senses. this a sensible guy and people in charge who are saying, - let's not frighten the horses. maybe the conservative party needs to go through - an experience like that. i just want to put the brief point to you, alastair, about this idea, and it has been an accusation, even a criticism of keir

starmer, that it isn't enough just to have a tory party that's imploding. you need to offer a viable alternative. the point you made and i spend a lot of my time going around the country talking to voters and you do still hear this idea about, well, i'd vote for labour because i don't like the conservatives, but is that enough? i mean, a positive vote. you still hear the accusation — i don't know enough about keir starmer, who he is, what he believes in, what he stands for. do you do you agree with that? is it a fair criticism? i think it's overdone because this thing, for example, about keir being boring, i don't think he is boring. i think he's actually quite an interesting guy. and i also agree, craig and i were talking outside that, you know, boring might be quite good. boring might be sellable. keir starmer said on the today programme, they said, "are you boring?" he said, "well, i don't think i'd make a better prime minister if i'd done a skydive," or something like that. exactly. he's that kind of person. he's serious. he's hardworking. he's got real values. he's honest. he's credible. there is a killer instinct in keir that people don't always see. and i think, he didn't go heavy on it yesterday, but there was a sense that he was looking at somebody and thinking, she cannot do thisjob. i have got this.

and i think that's... confidence is incredibly important. i spoke to somebody very, - or had lunch with somebody very senior in the labour partyjust to have a chat about... - trying to get a job! but what they said two things that i thought . were very interesting. one was the importance of that moment at the conference - that they genuinely - were worried when they sang the national anthem. nobody had ever sung. the national anthem ever at the labour conference. they handed the words out, apparently. they handed the words out. but even under tony blair, i they didn't sing the national anthem. we used to sing it before we left the hotel, just me and tony together! and then the other, - and the other thing that i thought... in the bathroom mirror! the other thing i thought - was interesting was that they were painfully aware that one key moment in the tory- leadership thing was i when rishi sunak really attacked liz truss. people didn't like a dominating male pushing somebody down. and so i think the tone - of that, they are thinking this through and it's i quite interesting. so we'll get together again, i presume. hopefully you'll come back, but can we push you for some predictions? and then when you do come back,

we can test you how right you were. who'll be prime minister at christmas? honestly, i don't know. i don't think you can say. it is perfectly possible - that it will not be liz truss. and that's the crux of this, isn't it? right now, i was saying this on the six o'clock news just now. we're 30 odd days in and nobody disputes the idea that she could be gone and gone soon. it's extraordinary. and the thing, if i had to put my life on it, i think she'd be gone. by christmas. yeah. i actually wouldn't rule out a sort of, i mean, you know better than i do, i wouldn't rule out a kind of coronation of sunak. well, look, i think what's - interesting is at conservative conference, i sort of raised the possibility that, - you know, rishi sunak is vindicated. - he comes in and, you know, you just say, oh, look, - all's forgiven. you were right. let's do that. and a lot of conservative mps were saying, sorry, | we just don't like him. the party is not going to unite behind him. i and i was quite . surprised by that. now maybe they will have . changed because the events

are so bad and mps are starting to think like, is it possible - to save my seat? but certainly last week i there were a lot of people saying rishi sunak is not. the answer and the problem they may find themselves in is there's no figure - that they can all unite behind| like michael howard in 2000, whenever it was. loved having him as an opponent. so the next prediction then is when�*s the next general election? again, i think the answer to that is, honestly, - you can't say. it could be very soon. it could go the distance. my feeling is it's not- going to go the distance. so next spring, potentially? potentially. but i don't think it's - going to go the distance. no. look, if she goes, i think it would be very, very hard for the tories to do the same trick again. i think the country is sick to death of them. i think they're sick to death of hearing about politics the whole time. so i think if she goes, the election will be sooner. if she survives, it will be later. but i don't think we'll go the full term. 0k. well, we'll get you back. definitely. it was great to be - on the rest is politics! this is newscast, craig! 0h, is it?!

where is rory stewart? alastair, craig, thank you so much for being here. so, we can now talk to marianna spring. hello, marianna. thank you for being here. lovely to see you on newscast. so i understand that americast, which is sister programme, sister pod, i think it's probably fair to say... definitely sister. i like it. close family relative. it has been doing an incredible project which i'm a little bit fascinated by, which is about creating social media accounts to try and see some of the junk that gets thrown around. can you just explain it? because i'm not very savvy, tech savvy. and those for those listening rather than watching, mariana has an improbable number of mobile phones in her hand! which is something to do with the project, right? let's just be clear. it is. i don't just wander around. no, i have got several old phones. i actually have five, but here i only have four. for anyone watching, in a blue peteresque fashion. what i've done is create five different characters, they're based on data

from a think tank in the us. they have views and opinions and hobbies and interests and names. they are called britney, gabriella, michael, emma and larry, who's sadly not with us. and they have different, they fall into different political categories. so britney is our populist right voter and gabriela is our apolitical voter. larry is our faith and flag voter. so larry and britney sit on the right. gabriella is bang in the middle. and then on the left, we have progressive left, emma, and we have democratic mainstay michael. and that's a lot to take in for people who are like, what on earth is she talking about? so we've got the midterm elections coming up in america. that's the kind of political context. and i guess what you're trying to work out is what each of them are seeing and what they're seeing that overlaps with each other and then what they're seeing that nobody else sees. absolutely that. so they've got social media profiles across the five main sites. so that's youtube, tik—tok, instagram, facebook and

twitter. and what i'm seeing is what they're recommended, how they're targeted with political ads, for example, how the algorithms work, and just what rabbit holes or what avenues they're led down. we say rabbit holes often when people go into conspiracies, but actually can just be lots of the same thing. and we're alsojust seeing when something big happens, how their feeds react in different ways. we've seen that around speeches, for example, that candidates have given or that the president has given or the different politicians have given. we've seen that around big events like the hurricane that was happening, hurricane ian in the us, and the impact of that and the different people caught up in it. so it's fascinating to just get a chance to look at the subjective social media worlds that people inhabit. and this is the only way of doing it. and that's why i havve so many phones. it is fascinating. i mean, isaidjunk at the beginning. byjunk, i meant some of the disinformation because that's got to be a big part of this, right, is how people are accessing information which is not true. and are you seeing that play in as big stories happen? as something breaks in the media, are you seeing versions of that story be pumped through to certain

accounts? it's really interesting because disinformation is one is one of the things i, as my many people, are really on the lookout for. after the riots that happened at the capitol in the us, it's something that there's been a lot of focus on, including from the social media sites who've made all kinds of commitments to tackle that kind of content, harmful falsehoods and so on. what we've really noticed is that our populist right voter in particular has been recommended on some sites, pages that continue to push the idea that the election in 2020 was rigged, that it was fraudulent. and the same hashtags and themes come up again and again whenever something new happens. because when something new happens, it's all part of the conspiracy, it's all part of the plan. i suppose the thought i have is how much are your five voters, britney et al, living in echo chambers, worlds that are entirely different from the others? and to what extent is there overlap? they're very much, i'd say, on the whole, inhabiting

these echo chambers. and it's interesting, i've spoken quite a lot about populist right britney, but progressive left emma, she's also had some quite extreme stuff. it's tended towards... she has stuff about climate and abortion and racism, but a lot of the stuff that she's looking at can use viole nt rhetoric. it's often name and shame, target individuals and stuff like that. less overtly conspiratorial, but she's absolutely in an echo chamber in the same way that populist britney is. what's most interesting and one of our favourites on americast is gabriella because she's our apolitical voter and we really wanted to see who targets her because she's not interested in politics at all. the main thing that she's liked that's a political issue is stuff around the cost of living. she wants to know how to save money on her groceries. she wants to know lots about her local area. she's from miami. and we've really noticed in the past couple of weeks in particular that she's starting to get those on the right targeting her feed much more and capitalising

on drawing on this issue of cost of living and blaming joe biden and the current government for that problem and saying that's why you need to vote for the republicans. it's totally fascinating. i'm guessing what you're going to do is kind of collate this information and then use it to make an assessment about how social media works in a way that you wouldn't see through your own eyes. i mean, it's amazing. please, please tell us more about it. i mean, i think americast is obviously this is a huge project for them and following it all through. you can. i would be fascinated to hear more as well, like, down the line as you keep this going, particularly as we get up to the us midterms. well, we've got the midterms coming up. we're going to be, there's going to be a lot coming out, kind of summing up everything i've just said about these undercover voters for the website, for the podcast, obviously for americast, just for stuff you can watch on the telly. and let me guess, we can find americast on bbc sounds? you're right! so that's it from us. tomorrow, james cook, the bbc scotland editor, is presenting newscast and he will be speaking to hugh bonneville. 0oh! i know. so a big name on newscast tomorrow.

it's going to be a good one. he's going to be talking about his ukraine campaigning and the bbc�*s centenary. so definitely worth checking out bbc sounds, but from us, that's it. goodbye. bye bye. goodbye. hello there. as we head towards the weekend, it continues to be quite a messy, eclectic weather story at the moment. this is the situation for friday — this weather front bringing some intense outbreaks of rain through scotland and northern ireland. the same time, we've got this weather front moving through channel coasts. that will just cling onto the south and produce some outbreaks of light drizzle, particularly towards the southeast as we go through the day. the best of the dry weather, wales and northern england, before this weather front starts to spill out of

scotland by the middle of the afternoon. behind it, for scotland and northern ireland, brightening up, a breezy afternoon, sunny spells and noticeably fresher here — 10—13 degrees the high. but in the south—east once again, we'll see those temperatures peaking into the high teens. now, as we move out of friday, we've got more showers starting to push in from the south and west as an area of low pressure moves in. so, cloudier skies here, a milder start to saturday, but where we get some clear slots, those temperatures may well fall away. the jet stream is going to be quite a powerful one over the next few days and it's centred across the uk, and we all know it's the jet stream that drives in areas of low pressure across us. so, as you can see, for the start of the weekend, that low pressure is going to be sitting into the far north—west. it could bring outbreaks of heavy rain to the north and west in particular, so not all of us will see rain through the weekend. 0ne spell of heavy rain moving through northern scotland, sharper showers tucking in behind, but sheltered eastern areas may stay relatively dry

and bright throughout the day. and if you dodge those showers, well, you'll still continue to see some warmth — 17—18 degrees once again. moving out of saturday into sunday, the low is still anchored to the north of scotland. that's where the heaviest of the rain is likely to be, with another front pushing in from the south—west. so, as we go through the day, a relatively dry start, the heavy rain pushing in through south—west england, wales and up along western fringes. so, once again, sheltered eastern areas may stay dry throughout the day, and in the sunshine, still relatively warm for this time of year. i did say it was quite a messy story, but as we go into monday and tuesday, things hopefully will quieten down just a touch. that's it. take care.

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