this is bbc news. the headlines: the african nation of somalia is suffering its worst drought in a0 years. it's estimated that more than half the population, nearly eight million people, are currently living in drought—affected areas. it's growing into a full—blown famine, where households have no food and children suffer acute malnutrition. britain's new chancellor, jeremy hunt, has insisted the prime minister is still in charge of the government, despite a series of major u—turns. it comes as speculation grows among her fellow conservative mps on whether she can remain as leader. mr hunt has signalled possible tax rises. the authorities in nigeria say more than 600 people are now known to have died because of severe flooding across the country. the minister of humanitarian affairs told journalists that more than 1.3 million people had been displaced in the worst

floods the country had seen in a decade. now on bbc news — dateline london with shaun ley. sombre but... hello and welcome to the programme which, for the last 25 years, has been the place where the uk's leading political commentators debate the big themes of the week. alongside them, the foreign correspondents who blog, pod, broadcast, and yes even these days write for audiences back home from the dateline: london. it may be our final edition but we're still looking forward

not back leaders and their future. after liz truss told herfinance minister, the chancellor kwasi kwarteng, to go, how long before british conservatives force her to do the same? biden or trump? who will win a second term in the white house, or might someone else get the chance of a first? and can china survive a third term for president xi? in the studio arejeff mcallister, time magazine's white house correspondent during the clinton years, and then chief of the magazine's london bureau. he and his wife now run their own international law firm. eunice goes, a portuguese writer and academic, lectures on comparative government which, i guess, is how countries learn from each other�*s mistakes; and steve richards, who arrived at westminsterjust as the conservative party was evicting margaret thatcher from downing street. the latest episode of rock and roll politics, his podcast, is entitled the next labour government and the power of markets. have events of the last few hours, perhaps certainly the last few weeks, steve, provided you with an insight into those two thoughts, the power of the market and the prospects for a change of government?

the power of the markets as such is that there are a few iron laws in the british politics. it is wild, as we all know, but one of them seems to be that although england, not the whole of the uk, but england tends to vote for conservative governments, they turn away when conservative governments get into trouble with the markets. they did it withjohn major, they are always doing it with labour governments, and that has happened now. it is striking, we have had many dramas over this 12 year period of tory rule with borisjohnson and brexit and everything. it is this. the market's responding almost immediately to that mini budget. the turmoil that has followed has led to this extraordinary position where liz truss, who sought definition and purpose through that mini budget, is having to scrap it all, because the markets found it unacceptable.

so, yeah, there are bigger lessons to come if there is to be a labour government, but, for now, i think it is just remarkable to reflect on something that has never really happened before in british politics. a new prime minister comes in, they nearly always get a honeymoon, and there are questions whirling with great intensity amongst conservative mps as to whether she can survive. we will talk more about that in a moment, eunice, looking at your own country's history in dealing with economic crises, it has had turmoil for the first part of this century, really big turmoilfor many years, it had to deal with before things calmed down. i am assuming liz truss, were she a student in your comparative government lessons, what lesson would you hope she would take from other governments have had to endure, when they have been challenged by the markets when the economic policy has not convinced them? i think the main lesson is that you are not in full control of your agenda,

there are constraints. the portuguese government has dealt with constraints for a very long time and the european union is a very big constraint. it forces a kind of fiscal responsibility to the government. liz truss came in and thought that she was able to set up and to enrol and implement a radical agenda for which voters had not voted in, in 2019. if she would be a student in my class, i would be doubted one of the first things i tell my students is that they need to learn the constraints, power matters. the fact that if you don't have powerful supporters, supporting your agenda, you are not going to be able to implement it. timing matters. to start to implement an agenda that is essentially to support the 1% at a time of a cost of living crisis is cognitive dissonance of a higher magnitude. thirdly, there is the whole question of timing,

the question of power, but also evidence—based politics. are you trying to implement an agenda for which there is no evidence that it is going to work? it is very laudable to want to implement a pro—growth agenda but there is no evidence whatsoever that liz truss's agenda would lead to growth. giving tax cuts to millionaires, there is no evidence that shows that it fosters growth. at the most, what will help is those millionaires to buy anotheryacht, ora second home abroad. it will not promote growth. what will promote growth is investment in infrastructure, in education, health care system as well. the fact that you have thousands of people sick at the moment is a huge disadvantage to the british labour market at the moment. if you really are serious about pro—growth strategy, these are the policies you need to invest. jeff, i was struck listening to, in the last hours of friday, to some of those people who had previously

supported liz truss now saying, now saying — one backbench conservative veteran mp told us at the bbc "i don't doubt her sincerity is", he voted for her and supported her from the start, "but i am concerned about her lack of resolve". she disappointed the people who supported her by compromising in this way, slinging the chancellor over the side. has she a chance of persuading some of those who didn't support her that she can do it? well, she's not widely known for her persuasive powers. i she did not have very many mps on her side when she started - the leadership contest. about 50 out of 200 and something. really, if you look at this incompetent this quicklyl in a party — i mean, - after all, has a reputation for being ruthless - at staying in power... laughter this is not. a good look. also particularly perverse thati

here she was giving the banks, giving the financial sector, lots of kisses in bankers' l bonuses and lower corporation tax rates, and other lower tax| rates, and they rejected it. so where does she go from here? it's crystallised this sense | about the british economy that— eunice is talking to — in 2016, britain's economy was 90% of germany's - and that it is under 70% of germany's.j that's a pretty short time. there has been covid - but there has also been brexit. there's been low productivity which has been a consistent. problem— for the british economy. just lowering taxes doesn't do that. i she thought she had _ the programme that could unite everybody and she had two years before the next election - to make it work. to have anything happen. now, what is she left with? is she a dead woman walking? uh, i wouldn't go that far, - but she has to pull something out, and the press conference today doesn't look like she's i got an awful lot of bright ideas. | how could she? she had them all last week!

and she's had to kind of dot to several people have said she has effectively had say," look, my ideas, as she put it, the budget in certain places went further and faster than the markets would tolerate". in the sense that they were frightened by what she was doing. if she has now moved with these compromises, not, after all, cancelling the corporation tax rise that had been put in by rishi sunak when he was chancellor on the borisjohnson, not after all scrapping the 45p tax rate, it is 46p in scotland. that would, effectively say, "my ideas kind of don't work "but i'm still worth having in charge of them." yeah, it's a fascinating example, as eunice was suggesting, of the constraints of power. and someone wholly miss reading those constraints. if she had begun by saying, "look, i am a low tax tory,

"my aspiration is to lower taxes over time," and hadn't done what she is now not doing anyway, she would have been in a wholly different position. if she had brought in some of her internal opponents, which prime ministers who haven't won an election have to do — they may not like it, but they haven't had the electorate�*s authority—enhancing boost, so why she didn't see that is a really interesting question. i think they've been in powerfor so long, it is utterly intoxicating and mesmerising when you become prime minister. you think, "well, i've done it, all the others "wa nted to haven't. " and others who might be better than me have failed. they have all failed and here are my and i'm just going to go for it. she didn't dare speak and no one dared to tell her, "hold on a second, you have won a leadership contest, "tory mps didn't vote for you by a majority, "you haven't had the

electorate�*s support, "the markets are hovering." tentatively at that point. she was constrained and, boy, does she realise it now. because she is having to... to sack a chancellor who was your kind of kindred spirit politically and put in someone who wasn't is another vivid example of the constraints of power. and you mentioned john major, prime minister in the 1990s. when black wednesday happened, the big attack on the pound and it fell out of the european exchange rate mechanism, despite the chancellor throwing in those days, no independent bank in england but the chancellor through british money at it, he failed. we left the european exchange rate, things calmed down and a few months later, he was sacked as chancellor. john major remained as prime ministerfor another 3.5 years. that is an important cautionary guide. who knows what's going to happen? but there was speculation that major was about to fall from the day britain fell out of the european exchange mechanism in 1997 when

he was slaughtered. but he stayed in for that five year parliamentary term. that's despite all the feverish speculation that it would be michael heseltine, ken clark — never happened. it is very difficult to remove a prime minister. tory mps this weekend have talked about nothing else. but how and with whom are protective shields... i'm not predicting she will survive. it seems to be unsustainable. but how they do it and with whom are problems that means quite often prime ministers do stay on much longer than media orthodoxy might suggest. let's talk about what's happening in the united states. we have the us mid—term elections coming up, jeff, about a month from now on a slightly less. it's not a time for politicians in the united states to adopt brave positions. they have to adopt positions that will guarantee that their supporters are behind them. but we had joe biden kind of taking the bull by the horns this week and saying,

"i am up to thejob, "i turned 80 next month, if donald trump stands again, :i will beat him". it was a confident message and it seems that the democrats have a bit of a spring in their step at the moment, but is thatjustified, given that donald trump remains a live political threat still? there were two sets of problems. - one is the larger trump problem land how he does in presidential| terms and the other— is the median political problem of the midterms. generally midterms- are not widely voted on. they are bad for i the party in power. and there is high inflation, . and all these things we know about that would be dragging down the democrats. - they seem to be. but on the other hand, - the democrats are energised because they arej scared of trump. there has been the ruling about abortion and fear . of what the supreme court is going to do next time. l so the smart money now says the republicans will retake i

the house, after which they will do 1 million . investigations of the| biden administration and try to slow everything down before the election. and the democrats may retain the senate, - but it is— still anybody's guess. it's volatile. then the interesting question of, what does that mean - for who runs for president? trump is definitely giving - every sign he is going to run. biden is now giving every sign that he wants to run - and is going to run. even though a poll last month suggested that 67% of voters thought he shouldn't. well, that's right. but trump's slightly less. yes, 57%. and we have this problem of getting rid of a sitting i prime minister is i difficult but a sitting president is impossible! chuckles when you are the sitting - president, how anybody comes up in your own party to try to defeat you, itj would be a bloodbath. and so if he wants the -

nomination, it is probably his. unless it is such a drubbing, let's say, in the midterms. that it just looks like no one buysj the joe biden argument, which is the kind of 'normal joe is enough to eat - the abnormal donald trump.�* it worked last time, he won by 7 million extra votes. - and there is an argument he can still have this coalition _ going. these democrats are not any less scared of trump. - trump has internal opposition, de santos, the govenor, - he looks like he is positioning himself as angry and a cultural warrior- without the possible indictments. - he won't find the business of government too difficult to do and how to focus on the boring stuff. no, that's right. but trump's acolytes still are dominant. . and you can't get very many- republicans to say anything bad about him, even in the wake

of all the january six - hearings, where it's clear that he had the plan- to denounce the election months in advance and then did - everything he could to| keep himself in power. and to be fair — i mean, maybe we weren't all looking but he denounced the 2016 election, as well. you know, this has been a line he has pursued for years — and you could argue usefully — but perhaps we didn't pay as much attention to it when we thought it was flimflam. but actually, perhaps it was a strategy. yes, he was laying down a possible escape route. j when your president, it is a lot easier_ when your president, it is a lot easier to _ when your president, it is a lot easier to keep— when your president, it is a lot easier to keep yourself. lot easier to keep yourself empowered _ lot easier to keep yourself empowered than- lot easier to keep yourself empowered than when - lot easier to keep yourselfl empowered than when you lot easier to keep yourself- empowered than when you are the candidate — i can't see how any. republican can support donald trump, honestly. i think he is treasonous, seditious, dangerous, i he has shown himself to be totally beyond the pale. - nevertheless, he was right — i "i could shoot someone on fifth "avenue and they would still vote for me". - that is a continual problem

that is going to give him i an advantage, you have - to give him the pole position for the republican nomination. in those circumstances, what is slightly surprising, abc news washington in another poll suggested only 35% of democrats and democrat—leaning independents want biden to run for a second term. it's odd to think that this is the man who defeated donald trump, which is what they said they wanted, but they just don't think he can do another term — whether it is because they don't think you can defeat trump again or they wonder what he is up to the job at all. i think it is the latter, rather than the former. because he has, to the surprise of many people, biden has — he will leave the white house with a much more transformational legacy than 0bama because he has the legislation he has approved this summer on climate change, on gun control, on child poverty, infrastructure building and so on. this is actually what any democrat voter would want and support. they would be also be energised

by the whole debates around abortion because democrats have said they are going to — they want to create a federal law that protects abortion rights, and biden has also come across as the person who is defending american democracy and democratic institutions. so, i understand the doubts of democrat—leaning voters and floating voters but democrats actually have a lot to be happy about with biden. and there is no—one else on the horizon who can claim and say, "well, here i am. "i'm going to do this", whereas biden, "i have already done this and if i'm elected "another four years, i will achieve more, "i will try to have an even more democratic legacy." so, a bit of a surprise but i think the concern is mostly about his age and mostly about his health. steve, it is paradoxical, isn't it? we're talking about people's health and age at a time when,

on average, people live longer — certainly in wealthy western countries and they have done, and where healthcare allows them to maintain a good quality of life. america has had ageing presidents, it had at ronald reagan, who was old, famously and now trump in his mid—70s and biden in his late 70s. is it an obsession of the media or does it cut through to the public? there is ageing and there is ageing. i will make a prediction here which will prove to be totally wrong but i would be surprised to be next presidential election is biden versus trump and age will be an issue, certainly with biden. that is my guess. 0n the eve of the mid—term and if there were no midterm elections, a president can't hint that he's going to go because he or she, he is usually is. it always is! as it has been so far. always is. because you become a lame duck and power seats away. we have already got the indication of power with the midterms.

if the republicans win — talk about the constraints of power, he will really feel it. if you have hinted you won't be there, the power seats away. you can't even hint that might happen. i suspect age is a factor and health, to contemplate another four years in two years' time. and trump, it is very hard, i think, for these performer politicians to pull off a trick again. you are much more in touch with the solidity of his support but i doubt whether he will be able to pull it off again. it'll be fascinating to see whether he takes up the challenge that has been set down to him by the january six committee and uses that as an opportunity to show boat. if he does, it'll be fascinating. it will be fascinating and tricky and not necessarily one that will work for him. we will, as viewers of all of this, we will wait and see, thanks for now. let's talk about another leader apparently not facing constraints, but perhaps there are some constraints because we had these protests in china at the end

of the week, which were to do, eunice, with people putting up banners, effectively saying "we don't want to the lockdowns, we don't want "the restrictions" and some said "we want freedom "to speak out and all the rest of it". what do you make of this as president xi prepares to face the congress, in which most people think it would be a foregone conclusion that he would be given a third term. a third term would be unprecedented because normally they lose the chairmanship of the communist party after two terms, so it would be unprecedented to get the third term. i don't think the dissent is interesting but it has been happening, and you hear occasionally about protests. in different parts of china and particularly in beijing. and then you have immediately the suppression of those protests are nothing comes out of it. he actually has been able

to consolidate his power. but i think what will happen — i think the problem is not so much the people protesting, because the chinese state has developed a very sophisticated ways of monitoring and suppressing dissent in china, what it will be is what will be to dissent within the chinese communist party? because by now, he should have had cultivated a successor. he should have a whole coterie of perhaps potential younger party leaders would take china for the next ten years or so. he has not cultivated them. he is essentially preparing for a third, unprecedented term chairing the communist party. and we know what happens when authoritarian leaders overstay their welcome in power. there is this perception that authoritarian leaders — and it is a very wrong perception — authoritarian leaders that their rule is more stable than democratic. it is full. aristotle had already noticed

that thousands of years ago. —— it is totally false. tyrannies are very unstable and even more unstable than democracy, which, at the time he was writing, was proper democracy, not the democracy we have now. because what is going to happen is he has perhaps collected a big line—up of opponents, of people who essentially want to replace him. the fact that he suppresses dissent, it means that he is surrounded by yes men and yes women. he will make mistakes. the economic situation is deteriorating and in those circumstances, it's when authoritarian leaders very often lose control and everything essentially collapses around them — but i think we are still in a long way and xijinping won't go quietly. there will be quite a lot of trouble before he leaves. the economist magazine, steve, was picking up on the point eunice was making in terms

of the covid policy, saying this was a policy imposed but because the political culture is that whatever president xi says is the truth — revealed truth, not even contestable — the policy hasn't adapted at all in the last couple of years. it has frozen. and that is where the strains begin. because most people can adapt policy to events and circumstances — sometimes they have to, as liz truss has discovered — but if you make it absolutely unchanging, at some point, something has to give. yeah, and in a way that undermines the effect growth that was so potent in china before. though i must say i have no idea what fate his will be in the coming months. for a commentator in the uk to comment on the instability of his leadership, when we here might be getting our third prime minister in about four weeks, suggests it may be, for very sinister reasons, he looks

more secure than some of the british prime ministers. but yeah, if you impose a policy like covid on a country without any capacity to adapt and revise and to chang in circumstance, that is unsustainable over a period of time. and you will get dissent, perhaps, at this twice—a—decade gathering, but i don't know whether — is the dissent normally at these conventions? i don't know. they are certainly not visible to broadcast versions of it. quick last thought, jeff, on china. well, problems are mounting up. and the fight with the i americans is heating up. i mean, we have the — whether they made the right bet on russia, - americans are taking quite seriously cutting them offl from the semiconductor world, which they need to do - their most advanced military.

equipment and to stay involved in the world economy - to the extent that they are. and this is a much more severe sanction than the trade - wars that donald trump introduced. _ this is going to be very. significant and will affect their entire supply chain - in the information technology industries. and the americans are going to do it. i so, i think that is actually serious. i jef, eunice and steve, thanks. thank you, too, very much. a word from michael goldfarb who is normally here. he was recording a programme in lviv, ukraine, he fell and fractured his femur and was driven to poland after treatment and then put up on twitter a photograph of the sun setting. five minutes later, he said someone i don't know tweets to invite me to krakow for wine, 15 minutes later. she watches me on dateline. the lady can send help to get him further medical treatment. dateline is seriously good for your health! that's it from all of us, and farewell to dateline:

london after 25 years. our thanks to our editor nick guthrie, our editor since day one. from all of you from all of us, goodbye. hello. although there's some wet and windy weather sweeping its way northwards, a lot of that is gone for monday, leaving, for many areas, a largely dry day with sunny spells. here's the area of low pressure. it will pull away northwards. in its wake, it'll be blustery, it'll be bright, still with a few showers around, though, particularly in scotland. this is how we're starting the day — milder air moving northwards overnight and into the morning. the rain still in the far north of scotland that will then move across the northern isles. and in east anglia, in the south—east of england, rain clearing, then a hang back of cloud probably,

gradually brightening up during the day. northern ireland, north west england, perhaps north wales will see a few showers but become mainly dry in the afternoon. showers will continue in scotland north of the central belt — some quite lengthy downpours around here. and it'll be windy again in all areas. the strongest winds will be in the central belt, southern scotland, northern ireland, northern england, north wales. these are average speeds. we could well see some gusts around 40—50 miles per hour. and as for temperatures, well, if you get that sunshine, as many will, especially in england and wales in the afternoon and out of the breeze, there'll be some warmth in that still. now, as we go on into monday evening and night, as that low pressure system continues to pull away, there'll still be a few showers around northern scotland. for many, the winds will ease. it'll be dry, skies are clearing, and it will turn chillier than this in more rural spots, so there will be a touch of frost in places as tuesday begins — and a day which will offer a lot of dry and sunny weather. more cloud around parts of eastern scotland, north east england. slight chance of a shower. more cloud towards the far south and south west of england — again, a slight chance of a shower here.

the vast majority, though, a dry day. 13 degrees in glasgow, up to around 18 degrees in cardiff. there is another area of low pressure coming our way and, in fact, unlike the others which have swept right the way through, this willjust linger towards the south—west or west of us as the week goes on, starting to bring some showers in. now, wednesday will begin with some cloud around scotland, north east england. maybe a bit drizzly in places. that's reluctant to clear. it'll make for a rather chilly—feeling day, whereas from that low pressure towards south, south west england, wales, into northern ireland in particular, there'll be some showers moving in and some of those could be heavy, perhaps thundery as well. and as the low pressure exerts more of an influence across the uk from thursday onwards, more places will see some wet weather at times spreading its way northwards.

this is bbc news. i'm simon pusey. our top stories: somalia's sorrow. we have a special report from the african nation suffering its worst drought in a0 years. we are headed for a catastrophe, this is serious. it is really going to get worse of nothing more comes in other than what is already there. britain's new chancellor defends the prime minister, saying voters don't need the turmoil of a fresh leadership election. more than 600 dead due to severe flooding in nigeria, with weeks of torrential rain still to come. and, china's president stresses the need for continued economic development but defends his covid policy, as the communist party gathers in beijing.