now on bbc news, political thinking with nick robinson. the turmoil in the conservative party, the psychodrama, the soap opera with ever more unlikely plot developments, has its roots in brexit, the unresolved question of how this country should reshape itself, having decided to leave the eu. that is one reason my guest on political thinking this week matters. david frost is seen by his admirers as the guardian of the brexiteer flame, the man who borisjohnson put into the house of lords and made his chief brexit negotiator, who's now considering a bid to become a member of parliament.

his critics, though, ask one simple question, and i quote one of them. "who the hell is an unelected, failed minister to tell any of us what to do?" well, that's what i hope to discover in this conversation, at a moment when anything could change, and almost certainly will in politics. david frost, lord frost, welcome to political thinking. thank you. great to be here. well, let's begin with what is on everybody�*s mind. your old friend, the man you advised and whether he, borisjohnson, can and should be our next prime minister. what do you make of the speculation? well, boris is remarkable guy, and he can do things that other people can't. so i don't find it at all surprising that we're getting this sort of noise about, "will he come back? "could he do the job?"

i think the party needs to think quite hard before it, it kind of goes down this road, you know? who knows? it's not really for me to say. but, you know, there was a reason why he left office and there's a reason why he was so successful in office. and they've got to work out which of those is going to be the most important for them. what do you think was the reason he had to leave office, that matters, now? so, i think the problem was the the sense of sort of confusion and chaos that surrounded him. i think partygate was a kind of special moment, if you like, you know, a very unhappy one. but it was a product of an extraordinary period. i think what people will probably want to see is the sense that he can run a government, he can organise things. he has a set of things he wants to deliver, can take decisions, can get things to happen. and i think that was at the root of some of the problems people had.

you're asking a question that everybody has asked since boris johnson emerged. and bear in mind, i was at university with him. "can boris change?" there's a simple answer. no, and he's not going to, is he? i mean, people can't, by the time they reach his age, my age, you know, basically, people have founded their ideas and the way they work. what, and i agree, you can't expect change, but what i think you could expect, and this is going to be one of the issues, you know, can people be self—aware about their weaknesses? understand what they're naturally good at and where they need help, and get people to do the things that they don't necessarily feel they're good at themselves? and that's what we we didn't quite see. that's the test then for borisjohnson�*s leadership. but isn't there a much more fundamental test, which we'll talk about much more as we go on with this interview? you quit his government, and you quit his government because of what you described as the "direction of travel."

and did it after less than a year as a minister. isn't the truth that he's a big government, high—spending, high tax, high immigration sort of tory? he's not a brexiteer tory, in the sense that you are at all. well, there are different kinds of brexiteer tories, but the one thing they all have in common is thinking brexit is a good thing because it restores national control and democracy and democracy enables you to to have these sort of arguments. and the conservative party has always been a broad church. i think it's a bit simplistic to say he's a high spend, high tax person. i don't really think he's a high tax person. he's certainly said things that make clear he isn't, you know. that's why you quit, isn't it? well, i quit over the, what at the time, looked like the rush back down into lockdown and vaccine, passports and so on, which has all now been kind of forgotten.

but i think, you know, it is not so much that he's a convinced large—government person, it's maybe he likes to kind of avoid difficult choices, and there are definitely going to be some difficult choices coming. i think this is the puzzle that i'm hoping we will explain here to many people listening, is what these arguments in the tory party are all about. let me read you a couple of headlines from the columns you write, now which are influential. "i'm backing liz truss for pm to lead the talented team that will. to lead the talented team that will "deliver for britain." that was on the 14th ofjuly, 19th of october, "liz truss has to go." yeah, absolutely. six weeks. david, what on earth happened? so, i mean, we're all asking that question, i think honestly, because this is sort of totally unprecedented. i supported liz because i believed and believe she had the right diagnosis and the right policies to deal with the problem. unfortunately, she rushed it and bungled it to a large extent, and that was exploited by people who opposed her.

but even then, i think the real reason why it became actually unsustainable was that over the last week, she's flipped completely, is now advocating policies that are completely the opposite of those that she won the campaign on, and that that just won't do. you can't really have that in our system. the legitimacy is fragile enough anyway, when it's based on a vote of the ruling party and its members, and not a normal election, to then campaign, win on something and then change it completely. i think that is just, you know, whether you agree with the policies or not, it just doesn't work. but to be clear, you really wanted her to quit because you thought she was damaging the ideas that you believe in. and that getting rid of her was the only way of preserving the possibility of implementing those ideas in future. well, i was worried it was discrediting the whole party, to be honest. i mean, obviously i believe in my

ideas and lots of conservatives do. but, you know, the way the polls were were going, the way that infighting had broken out again and the way we were ending up with, you know, osborneomics, basically, that nobody had voted for in the campaign. that is just corrosive. you smiled when i read out that criticism of you. "who the hell is this unelected fellow minister to tell any mp what to do?" when i read those headlines, one minute backing her, the next minute calling for her to be sacked, one minute praising borisjohnson, the next saying you're leaving his government, do you get why some people listening to this will be screaming at the radio or the television, saying, "this man is messing up our national life?" so, i mean, the quote you read about me ranks as a generous tribute compared to some of the things that get said about me. and i haven't really got the thick skin of other politicians yet.

so this sort of thing does does sort of sting sometimes. but i think, you know, what i would say is, i believe i have a consistent set of philosophical beliefs about things which are about, you know, smallish government, freedom, free markets, the nation. and i try to stick to those beliefs. and that's you know, that's not quite what we've seen. and what's interesting about that and this programme is a conversation about what forms people's views, not just about your contemporary views. what's interesting about that is that while you say you've got a consistent set of beliefs, you grew up in a in a labour household, you were not either a tory yourself as a young man or indeed from a tory background. no, not not at all. i mean, my parents were both were both labour. they both worked for rolls—royce in derby as draughtspersons, i suppose one would say nowadays, even though the actualjob

of drawing on paper has disappeared. but yeah, we were skilled... skilled working class? skilled, yes, skilled, sort of lower middle class, i suppose you might say, though, it sounds sort of slightly, i don't really like the term, but you know what i mean. and we, you know, we we relatively unthinkingly supported labour, though we definitely had doubts, i think, in the �*80s. unthinking, or was it discussed much, politics, at the breakfast table or over your tea? no, we discussed it, we discussed it a lot. and, you know, we all had sort of slightly different perspectives on things. that's for sure, but... but even at that stage, were you arguing with your mum and dad who you said were slightly unthinking in their support for labour? no, ithink, you know, that's probably an unfair word. we, you know, we all we all had the same philosophical beliefs about the kind of society we wanted to see. at that stage, you fancied neil kinnock being leader of the country.

yes, that is that is true. and we all change our mind about things. when, in your case? was it a moment or was it a process? it was more a process, i think. and, you know, for me, it was during the �*90s, i guess, when i was in the foreign office, you know, kind of exposed to the real world. just to remind people, you joined the foreign office straight out of university. you go to brussels. you become private secretary to the head of diplomatic service. quite a grand job. it's a sort ofjob that makes it look like you're rising to the top of the foreign office and end up as ambassador to denmark. but during this period, you say? yeah, ithink... in the �*90s, i spent a lot of time in brussels and indeed a lot of time after that in brussels. and i think, you know, people who go to brussels it usually

has two effects on them. most, the majority effect seems to be what a wonderful thing, this is a great organisation, let's get, you know, we need to work with it. but there is a minority view which came to me, which is that i don't like this organisation. i don't agree with what it's doing. i don't think that the rush to a broader, nondemocratic, europe—wide organisation is the right thing to be doing. and that's the effect that it had on me. but you see, one of your former bosses has told us, "i saw no trace of serious euroscepticism at the time." another said, "he decided to be a brexiteer, brexiteer and then created a back story to fit it." they can't see any evidence of your time in the foreign office that you had doubts about europe. well, maybe they're just saying i was a professional civil servant then, because yourjob is not to give vent to your own opinions all the time, but to try and do

what the government is trying to do. and that's what i tried to do. did that feel limiting? did it feel annoying to go home and sort of have to say to yourself, i don't know whether you could say it to friends or family, "i don't agree with this stuff." i mean, it's part of thejob. if you can't do that, then you shouldn't be a civil servant, because you've got to live your professional life on somebody else�*s terms. and in the end, i left because i didn't feel that that was what i wanted to do for my whole life. did you leave, though, because it didn't work out? you see that phrase, thatjob title, private secretary to the head of the diplomatic service probably means nothing to most people listening. in the business, that means the guy tapped up to rise to the top of this organisation. he's being trained. what went wrong? why didn't you get it? well, i left. did you leave because you weren't

making the progress you wanted or... no, i left because i felt it wasn't. .. i got frustrated by not being able to do and say what i what i thought about things. and, you know, i still had a lot of my life in front of me and i didn't want to live it on somebody else�*s terms the whole time. well, let's turn to brexit then, because you've described how in the �*90s you came round to it. i just want you to play a small political thinking game with me. i'm going to read out some statements and see whether you agree or disagree with this. "can any future trading arrangements be as good as the current ones provided by membership?" is that a statement you would... i think it's a sort of trick question coming here. do you recognise this? i recognise some of the statements. i'll give you some more. "the case for change has to be overwhelming. "it isn't. "britain will be demander, so it will be britain that has "to make the concessions to get the deal.

"in short, even the best case outcome can't be as good "as what we have now." whose words are those? so, they're mine. while i was head, i think, the scotch whisky association and the the policy of the scotch whisky association was to stay in the eu. and i don't think they would have thanked me if i'd made up my own policy on the hoof. i understand that, but it will puzzle people the depth of the arguments for remain that came out of your lips, as it were, we are interrupting that programme to bring you some breaking news from the world of politics. the former chancellor rishi sunak has just tweeted that he will indeed be standing for prime minister. a formal declaration has now been

made. penny mordaunt was the first to do that. i have gotjonathan blake in the studio with me. jonathan is going to take me through what rishi sunak has said this morning. we learned about it via twitter. in morning. we learned about it via twitter. . , , twitter. in the last few minutes confirming _ twitter. in the last few minutes confirming rishi _ twitter. in the last few minutes confirming rishi sunak - twitter. in the last few minutes confirming rishi sunak the - twitter. in the last few minutes i confirming rishi sunak the former chancellor will stand for the conservative leadership. no surprise. he has been the frontrunner since the beginning of the contest since liz truss resigned at the end of last week. it was a matter of when, not if he was going to announce his candidacy. he has done that. he has said the united kingdom is a great country but we face a profound economic crisis. that is why he says i am standing to be leader of the conservative party and your next prime minister. he says i want to fix our economy, unite our party and deliver for our country. there is a slightly longer statement he has tweeted alongside his announcement. i will take you

through some of what he said. he reminds people he served as chancellor, helped steer the economy through the toughest of times and promises to deliver on the promise of the 2019 manifesto. as he puts it. this is an interesting passage. he says there will be integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level of the government i lead. and that, i think, at every level of the government i lead. and that, ithink, has at every level of the government i lead. and that, i think, has to be read as something of a nod to the chaos frankly the conservative party has found itself in government in the last few weeks. perhaps also before that with boris johnson the last few weeks. perhaps also before that with borisjohnson as leader. there are questions over whether mrjohnson will stand in the contest as well. rishi sunak end saying i am asking you for the opportunity to help fix our party and country forward towards the next general election confident in our record, firm in our convictions and ready to lead again. a statement in the last year minutes tweeted by

former chancellor rishi sunak and confirming his candidacy in the race to be conservative leader. he is the frontrunner, way ahead of anyone else, the other names in the frame with 129 is our latest tally of mps publicly backing him.— with 129 is our latest tally of mps publicly backing him. let's 'ust go back and remind �* publicly backing him. let's 'ust go back and remind us * publicly backing him. let's 'ust go back and remind us who h publicly backing him. let's 'ust go back and remind us who is h publicly backing him. let'sjust go back and remind us who is now i publicly backing him. let'sjust go back and remind us who is now in| publicly backing him. let'sjust go . back and remind us who is now in the race. we have rishi sunak, penny mordaunt, we are waiting for if it happens, borisjohnson.- happens, boris johnson. that's ri . ht. happens, boris johnson. that's right- now— happens, boris johnson. that's right- now you _ happens, boris johnson. that's right. now you made _ happens, boris johnson. that's right. now you made the - happens, boris johnson. that's - right. now you made the comment about integrity- — right. now you made the comment about integrity. steve _ right. now you made the comment about integrity. steve barker - right. now you made the comment about integrity. steve barker was i about integrity. steve barker was talking of doubt this morning, he backs rishi sunak. he was underscoring that point about integrity. underscoring that point about inteuri . ,, 1, ~ underscoring that point about inteuri . ,, «in , underscoring that point about inteuri . ,, integrity. steve baker is an influential _ integrity. steve baker is an influential voice _ integrity. steve baker is an influential voice on - integrity. steve baker is an influential voice on the - integrity. steve baker is an l influential voice on the right, chair of the european research group, staunch brexiteer and organiser and his endorsement for rishi sunak will have given the

campaign a boost, confirming the momentum he has and that he is able to bring on—board figures from the right of the party who might not necessarily be his natural supporters. steve baker backed liz truss, you would expect him and others to have swung behind boris johnson. clearly he and perhaps others have taken the that they cannot entertain the possibility of borisjohnson returning to number ten so are supporting rishi sunak. steve baker in an interview this morning said it would be inevitable boris johnson's morning said it would be inevitable borisjohnson's premiership would implode if he could come back. we know rishi sunak is confirmed in the race. he and penny mordaunt the only ones to have confirmed in the race. the bar has been set so high, anyone to enter the race needs a backing of 100 mp5 to enter the race needs a backing of 100 mps nominating them. the conservative party has 357 mps so one third of the party, that is why there are so few names in the frame

with rishi sunak confirming tendency this morning, the only question that is what does borisjohnson do? does he step forward and say i am going to take you on? has some sort of arrangement been reached between him and rishi sunak, given the discussions we know the men had yesterday afternoon. or does he bow out entirely and say thank you for your support but not this time? we will discuss some of the points you have just raised. will discuss some of the points you havejust raised. let's will discuss some of the points you have just raised. let's take viewers through the expected or likely timeline. over the next 2a hours or longer. we will find out who replaces liz truss as early as monday. conservative mps have until then to nominate their preferred candidate. each candidate as jonathan said needs at least 100 nominations. around one third of the members. if only one of them

achieves that, that is a simple declaration of they will be prime minister on monday afternoon as of 2pm. if there are three candidates with 100 nominations they will be an mps vote and narrowed the choice to two. mps have an indicative vote of the two finalists before the choices handed to conservative membership in the country who will then vote on line. i am going to bring you back in. if this vote goes online across the country, what happens then? party members have until then to cast their votes. no postal votes we saw that ran through the summer. there will be two names for them to choose, if it gets to that point. it will be a straight run—off and tory parties cast their votes as we know, it is a very relatively small and narrow electorate, fewer than a couple of hundred thousand people casting their votes to decide leader

of the party but also with that the next prime minister of course. pending on who is in the final two. if borisjohnson stands and if he reaches that stage of the contest, you would have to put him as the favourite among party members. he enjoys a high level of support among grassroots conservatives. but i think this contest is incredibly open, and predictable and we don't even know if it will get to that online vote. it could be done and dusted by 2pm friday afternoon when nominations close. monday afternoon, sorry. nominations close. monday afternoon, sor . , . , ., nominations close. monday afternoon, sor. , . , sorry. they have until 2pm to cast their vote? _ sorry. they have until 2pm to cast their vote? for _ sorry. they have until 2pm to cast their vote? for the _ sorry. they have until 2pm to cast their vote? for the candidates - sorry. they have until 2pm to cast their vote? for the candidates to l their vote? for the candidates to ut their vote? for the candidates to put forward _ their vote? for the candidates to put forward their _ their vote? for the candidates to put forward their list _ their vote? for the candidates to put forward their list of - their vote? for the candidates to put forward their list of 100 - their vote? for the candidates to put forward their list of 100 plus| put forward their list of 100 plus names. if we only have the one nest, that it? they will be prime minister. if there are two, there

will be an indicative vote, that will be an indicative vote, that will not decide it, it will go to the members if the losing candidate at that point or the candidate with the least support amongst mps does not decide to drop out and you would think that might be pressure on them to do that. if there are three at that stage, somehow penny mordaunt sweeps up new names, borisjohnson which is 100 as well, then there will be one round of voting to narrow three down to two and the process continues from there. irate process continues from there. we heard from penny mordaunt this morning. she was pushed on a number of issues. did we learn anything in terms of policy because with rishi sunak, he does come with legacy of his performance within government. is that going to work against her? penny mordaunt is untested in a lot of areas. she has held cabinetjobs. not for very long at all. she is currently leader of the house of,

international trade secretary, and somebody who is judged to international trade secretary, and somebody who isjudged to have international trade secretary, and somebody who is judged to have good communication skills, and effective performer in parliament, clearly has an appeal within the party, at one criticism as you suggest that comes her way is that people don't really know what she stands for. she has not set out in broad terms the direction she would take the party, what she would do in various other policy areas. we did not learn very much at all if anything new from her interview with laura kuenssberg on the bbc this morning about what she would do if she was in power.— she was in power. let's remind viewers who — she was in power. let's remind viewers who have _ she was in power. let's remind viewers who have joined - she was in power. let's remind viewers who have joined us - she was in power. let's remind l viewers who have joined us here she was in power. let's remind - viewers who have joined us here this viewers who havejoined us here this morning that we have had a second declaration candidate. rishi sunak has declared his candidacy in the tory leadership race. we find out either tomorrow lunchtime or it may

go on as long as friday. just to take out a few key points. starting up, the united kingdom is a great country but we face a profound economic crisis.

this statement does go on. jonathan blake is with me in the studio. he promises to deliver on the 2019 manifesto. there have been a number of issues with deliverables and the tory party over the last few weeks. 45 days in fact. in terms of the 2019 manifesto remind us what was that? it 2019 manifesto remind us what was that? , ., , ., , that? it interesting how he phrased it. iwill that? it interesting how he phrased it. i will deliver— that? it interesting how he phrased it. i will deliver on _ that? it interesting how he phrased it. i will deliver on the _ that? it interesting how he phrased it. i will deliver on the promise - that? it interesting how he phrased it. i will deliver on the promise of l it. i will deliver on the promise of the 2019 manifesto. does that mean every single line? does that mean the broad thrust of it with the same priorities? it is open to interpretation i think but it would mean keeping the triple lock on pensions, ensuring old age state pensions, ensuring old age state pensions do go up in line with inflation, 2.5%, whichever is higher. committing to increasingly number of homes built in the uk to ice think 300,000 year year, i don't haveitin ice think 300,000 year year, i don't have it in front of me now. also eradicating rough sleeping in this parliament. plenty more besides.

economically for him to be able to do that and carry through all the promises in the 2019 manifesto are incredibly difficult and he has gone into that at length in his statement. clearly with that sentence he wants to suggest or signal to conservative mps he is not going to do some huge about turn, take the party in a different direction, and for those who back borisjohnson he says i will stay true to the mandate we have to govern that we were elected on in 2019. perhaps an attempt to just reach out tojohnson supporters and say i am going to carry on in that vein. �* , ., ~ , say i am going to carry on in that vein. �*, w , , vein. let's take viewers 'ust where we stand in — vein. let's take viewers 'ust where we stand in terms _ vein. let's take viewers 'ust where we stand in terms of_ vein. let's take viewers just where we stand in terms of candidates i vein. let's take viewers just where l we stand in terms of candidates and those that have thrown their support behind the three key names. mr sunak who has public support of 130 mps

held talks with borisjohnson last night. he has now declared that he has entered the race. rishi sunak has entered the race. rishi sunak has formally declared that he has entered the race. this is a bbc tally indicating he has achieved the backing of at least 130 mps. significantly more than the 100 needed to enter the ballot. that is the magic number. 100. boris 55 and penny mordaunt, the only or rather she was the first declared candidate, she still remains on 23. a reminder this is a bbc tally. we have had a number of people come out this morning who have said, was it jacob rees—mogg who said we have the numbers, or damian green said we have the numbers. he will be in the race. but we don't have the public

confirmation. it race. but we don't have the public confirmation.— confirmation. it was jacob rees-moog. _ confirmation. it was jacob rees-moog. you - confirmation. it was jacob rees-mogg, you are - confirmation. it was jacob i rees-mogg, you are correct. confirmation. it was jacob - rees-mogg, you are correct. that's rees—mogg, you are correct. that's the question hanging over boris johnson's would be campaign. he has not officially declared. they claim they have the numbers. chris heaton—harris, another supporter of borisjohnson saying, someone who will be steeped in the art of keeping a tally of mps and holding them to their promise, as you say, them to their promise, as you say, the number publicly backing boris johnson is far fewer than that. it is fair enough for them to say we have the support, take our word for it, but can we, should we, if those mps are not coming out publicly in the numbers they are for rishi sunak, and saying yes i support rishi sunak, it means there is potential for them rishi sunak, it means there is potentialfor them to rishi sunak, it means there is potential for them to change their mind. that some of them are happy to see private but not publicly, the campaign may think they other numbers but it's different to say we

have them on their word to saying here they are all in the public. i5 here they are all in the public. is that the norm? it _ here they are all in the public. is that the norm? it is _ here they are all in the public. is that the norm? it is a _ here they are all in the public. is that the norm? it is a big - here they are all in the public. is that the norm? it is a big gap. . that the norm? it is a big gap. rishi sunak — that the norm? it is a big gap. rishi sunak was _ that the norm? it is a big gap. rishi sunak was not _ that the norm? it is a big gap. rishi sunak was not campaign | that the norm? it is a big gap. - rishi sunak was not campaign said they have the numbers on friday night before 100 mps had publicly said it. there was not much of a discrepancy. not even a dozen or so. he quickly got there after going public. 55 is what we are wrapped with borisjohnson, maybe one or two more than that. a few coming out this morning. the gap between that and 100 is quite big so there are questions for the campaign and why they are feeling the need to reassure people they have the numbers at this point. i reassure people they have the numbers at this point.- reassure people they have the numbers at this point. i am going to ask ou to numbers at this point. i am going to ask you to stay _ numbers at this point. i am going to ask you to stay with _ numbers at this point. i am going to ask you to stay with us _ numbers at this point. i am going to ask you to stay with us because - numbers at this point. i am going to ask you to stay with us because this | ask you to stay with us because this is breaking news for us here in that we have now learned that rishi sunak has formally declared his candidacy for prime minister of the conservative party, the uk leader of the conservative party, prime

minister of the uk. there is the tweet on the screen. stay with us. more coming up. the former chancellor rishi sunak confirms that he is in the race to be the next conservative party leader and british prime minister. speculation is still rife that the former prime minister borisjohnson will also enter the contest. b, former prime minister boris johnson will also enter the contest.— will also enter the contest. a close all is will also enter the contest. a close ally is confident _ will also enter the contest. a close ally is confident that _ will also enter the contest. a close ally is confident that he _ will also enter the contest. a close ally is confident that he will. - will also enter the contest. a close ally is confident that he will. yes, | ally is confident that he will. yes, i have been speaking to boris johnson and clearly, he is going to stand. there is a great deal of support for him, as you will have seen. labour leader sir keir starmer says that labour hasn't got complacent and repeats calls for a general election. , , ., , ., and repeats calls for a general

election. , , .,, ., election. these people are so fed u -. the