has to type of brexit we have and it has to be brexit which is renegotiated, pragmatically, with the interests of the whole of the british people and notjust minority groups or people with ideological beliefs.— with ideological beliefs. whilst some of the — with ideological beliefs. whilst some of the economy's - with ideological beliefs. whilst i some of the economy's problems with ideological beliefs. whilst - some of the economy's problems are global, others like the fallout from the mini—budget and the brexit deal are not. dealing with both global and domestic causes is a tall order for any new government. andy verity, bbc news. one of the other pressing challenges facing the new prime minister will be nhs waiting lists — at a time when officials are warning that this winter could see a so—called �*twindemic�* — both covid and flu. and all this at a time when the number of staff vacancies are at record levels. our health correspondent jim reed has more. with your right leg, we found a tumour... we need more nurses — that's the message from the nhs today. we are the nhs. we are recruiting now,

search "nursing careers". staff shortages are one of the most pressing problems facing the health service and the next prime minister. more than one in ten nursing jobs are currently unfilled in england, with big gaps in other roles. it comes as unions across the health service start to ballot members over pay and working conditions. this morning, 15,000 ambulance service staff in england and wales have begun voting on possible strike action, though that would not affect emergency call—outs. without significant increases in pay, nhs workers and ambulance workers will continue to leave the service for higher paid jobs elsewhere. they can't continue working under the extreme pressures that they are doing. this is more than just about pay — this is about patient safety and standards, as well. siren wails last week, the scottish government raised its pay offer to health staff. unions now say they

will consider it. all this as the nhs is juggling other pressures. waiting lists for operations at a record high, covid hasn't gone away and there's a warning that flu is starting to return in force, after two years are being kept at bay by pandemic restrictions. in a typical flu year, for example, we see between 4,000—20,000 people die of flu or complications relating to that, and a further 40,000 going into hospital. so this is really the right time to think ahead, boost your immunity, boost your immunity against covid and get a flu jab if you're eligible. the government says pay is going up for a million front line nhs workers in england. and more money is being made available to free up beds and reduce pressure on hospitals. health bosses will be watching the data closely, as the health service enters its busiest time of the year. jim reed, bbc news.

we'll have more on this later in the programme but you can keep up to date with the latest on the leadership race on bbc news 0nline, that's bbc.co.uk/news, and by using the bbc news app. our top story this lunchtime: nominations close within the hour in the conservative party leadership race — rishi sunak is the clear front runner with a commanding lead of tory mp. penny mordaunt is the only other contender. and you can see all the latest on the formal announcement in a specially extended programme here on bbc one. and stay with us on the bbc news channel for continuing coverage and analysis from our team of correspondents in the uk and around the world.

the united states, britain and france have all condemned russia's claim that ukraine could use a radioactive "dirty bomb" — that is conventional explosives mixed with radioactive material. western allies of ukraine say the russian allegation is transparently false — and that the world would see through any attempt by the kremlin to use it as a pretext to escalate the war, possibly by using tactical nuclear weapons. 0ur ukraine correspondent, hugo bachega, has this report from kyiv. as the battle for kherson looms, its residents have been told to leave. russian—appointed officials, who say ukrainian forces are preparing a large—scale offensive to retake the city. thousands of civilians have fled, carrying everything they can. for ukraine, this is

a disinformation campaign by russia. after accusing ukraine of planning to attack a major dam, moscow now says kyiv is preparing to use a dirty bomb. this could be a conventional bomb laced with radioactive material. russia has not offered any evidence, and the claims were dismissed by ukraine's western partners as lies and falsehoods. here in kyiv, president zelensky had a warning. translation: everyone - understands everything well. the membership have their say. and i agree. there is a contradiction in this, but to exclude the membership of the party is fundamentally wrong. i came up in the conservative party through leaflet dropping, knocking on doors and i know what is is like to be an ordinary member of the conservative party and to exclude them from having a say is profoundly

wrong. them from having a say is profoundly wronu. ~ . them from having a say is profoundly wron~.~ . ,, them from having a say is profoundly wronu. ~ . ,, ~ them from having a say is profoundly wron~.~ ., «a, wrong. what you think about what ha--ened wrong. what you think about what happened last _ wrong. what you think about what happened last time _ wrong. what you think about what happened last time and _ wrong. what you think about what happened last time and the - wrong. what you think about what happened last time and the fact i wrong. what you think about what l happened last time and the fact the membership chose liz truss against rishi sunak, who was the candidate tory mps were backing. did they get it right? it tory mps were backing. did they get it ri . ht? ., , it right? it turned out they certainly _ it right? it turned out they certainly did _ it right? it turned out they certainly did not. - it right? it turned out they certainly did not. but - it right? it turned out they certainly did not. but i - it right? it turned out they i certainly did not. but i would it right? it turned out they - certainly did not. but i would say that was over one issue and one issue only and that was that liz truss was, how can i put it, several people advised liz that it might be wrong to have kwasi kwarteng as chancellor of the exchequer and she didn't accept the advice and everything flowed from that. had it not been from the mini budget, i'm sure she would have been prime minister and getting on with the job. but these things happen. you know, who knows? the parliamentary party might well have supported liz truss, so we cannot make those assumptions. in terms of where the

parliamentary party is. we assumptions. in terms of where the parliamentary party is.— parliamentary party is. we know penny mordaunt's _ parliamentary party is. we know penny mordaunt's team - parliamentary party is. we know penny mordaunt's team say - parliamentary party is. we know penny mordaunt's team say she | parliamentary party is. we know- penny mordaunt's team say she has at least 90 mps backing her and that is not enough, and honestly she would need a hundred and the bbc can only verify 27 who have confirmed that they are supporting her and one of her key backers, george freeman, said it was time that while he supports and respects, it is time for her to row back in behind rishi sunakfor the good for her to row back in behind rishi sunak for the good of the party and unity going forward. if that happens, how would you feel? figs unity going forward. if that happens, how would you feel? $5 i happens, how would you feel? as i said, it's happens, how would you feel? sis i said, it's important happens, how would you feel? is i said, it's important that people give the opportunity for there to be a balance. we have had terrible turmoilfor the a balance. we have had terrible turmoil for the last three months and actually a disgrace, if i'm honest and anotherfour and actually a disgrace, if i'm honest and another four days of indecision about who will be the next prime minister and the ballot will be done by then, if it does go to the members. and i think it is

worth it for the sake of that sort of democracy within the party. but, look, i hold my hands up. i not always backing the person who becomes leader. i know that. kenneth clarke in 1997, i thought he would have been best at the time but william hague got it and then i backed michael portillo and someone else got it, but then you see i had a career before i was an mp and i'm not desperately ambitious to be on the front bench. and some of the points people are making is that people are ambition and and i have no direct desire to return. i want is best for the country and this party and the membership does need to have a say. and i'm hoping that

i'm not involved in the team of penny mordaunt. i changed the nomination when boris chopped out, i changed it to penny, but i'm not involved in her team. you say she has 27 but it does turn out that we know absolutely and it's been confirmed by the 1922 that boris johnson had hundred and two and because of the high editorial standards of bbc news journalists, we always take the conservative, small c style, you do small measurements and that is no criticism. measurements and that is no criticism-— measurements and that is no criticism. ~ , ., .,~ criticism. absolutely none taken. it is a disnarity _ criticism. absolutely none taken. it is a disparity between _ criticism. absolutely none taken. it is a disparity between what - criticism. absolutely none taken. it is a disparity between what we - is a disparity between what we confirm and what the public number is. michael fabricant, thank you very much and there is not long to wait. 36 minutes until we find out

the final figures, unless there are any of elements beforehand which might mean that the numbers are not published. 0ur chief political correspondent nick eardley has been monitoring events — hejoins me now. penny mordaunt's team insist it is going to the wire and it is still very close and the briefing that they have had, more than 90 mps backing them, but we cannot verify the numbers, so we may well find out at two o'clock whether penny mordaunt has got this over the line. the big picture really matters is that rishi sunak is by some margin the choice of conservative mps and has a comfortable majority of tory mps and if it was up to them he would be prime minister tomorrow. and it's notjust up to them and if more dance can get it over the line in the next few minutes —— penny mordaunt can get it over the line in the next few minutes, you will be

the next few minutes, you will be the case goes to a run—off with conservative members. but we don't know for certain. there have been a lot of briefings in the last few days which have turned out to be more generous than they should have been. let's see what happens in the next few minutes.— next few minutes. thank you very much. next few minutes. thank you very much- the _ next few minutes. thank you very much. the clock _ next few minutes. thank you very much. the clock is _ next few minutes. thank you very much. the clock is ticking. - next few minutes. thank you very much. the clock is ticking. 34 - much. the clock is ticking. 3a minutes ago. prashant rao joins us now — he is a former international editor of the atlantic and a senior editor at semafor. which is quite a new media company, so, how are you observing this and what are your thoughts? it’s what are your thoughts? it's ossible what are your thoughts? it's possible to _ what are your thoughts? it�*s possible to hold two things in our hands at the same time, one of which it is remarkable that britain might be, as you been counting down, in 30 odd minutes, having its first ethnic minority by minister which is remarkable for how little it has been remarked upon to this point, and at the same time acknowledge that he's coming into an astonishing set of challenges that is possibly even more complicated than when he was last chancellor and had to

handle the pandemic. and the lack of confidence in the financial markets, all of these will be factors going forward for him. find all of these will be factors going forward for him.— all of these will be factors going forward for him. and the other party is keein: forward for him. and the other party is keeping the _ forward for him. and the other party is keeping the party _ forward for him. and the other party is keeping the party together. - forward for him. and the other party is keeping the party together. how i is keeping the party together. how big a challenge will that be. i would defer to your political correspondence but it looks as though the conservative party has very different views about rishi sunak and they differ across both the parliamentary party membership and your correspondent has been talking about this for the past hour and before that he does have the dominant support of the parliamentary party but what he seems do not certainly have, we don't know that he has, is the membership and uniting those two factions aside from the factions in the parliamentary party will be an enormous challenge going forward. and in terms of the international perspective and how all of this is

viewed. we have had four chancellors in recent weeks and months and we will be on to our third prime minister of the year, so how other countries watching this?— countries watching this? some measure of — countries watching this? some measure of surprise _ countries watching this? some measure of surprise with - countries watching this? some measure of surprise with a - countries watching this? some l measure of surprise with a level countries watching this? some - measure of surprise with a level of chaos that has been taking place in the last two weeks in british politics, going back to the last few weeks of borisjohnson's prime ministership but we have to look forward to how rishi sunak is perceived and while he is perceived at —— as a safe set of hands, but washington will look at the fact that liz truss was more hawkish when it came to china, and rishi sunak is not seen as hawkish as liz truss was, so how that affects him will be an enormous factor. in was, so how that affects him will be an enormous factor. in international terms, an enormous factor. in international terms. present _ an enormous factor. in international terms, present biden's _ an enormous factor. in international terms, present biden's team - an enormous factor. in internationalj terms, present biden's team talking about the strong over ukraine and how that has endured —— president

biden. and how that is enjoyed during the domestic political turmoil. , �* ., , ., , , turmoil. president biden was openly critical and other _ turmoil. president biden was openly critical and other members - turmoil. president biden was openly critical and other members of- turmoil. president biden was openly critical and other members of his i critical and other members of his administration have been critical of liz truss's financial and economic policy, but one thing that has been constant in the uk has been support for ukraine for president zelensky and i don't see it changing and i don't think anyone in dc does but there are otherfactors. don't think anyone in dc does but there are other factors. as britain has greater financial ties, will they be able to commit to defence and for what washington and london hawks believe is necessary for defence as borrowing costs rise in the public purse strings are tightened. the public purse strings are tightened-— the public purse strings are tiahtened. ., ,, ., ., , tightened. thank you for “oining us. it is almost — tightened. thank you for “oining us. it is almost exactly half _ tightened. thank you forjoining us. it is almost exactly half an - tightened. thank you forjoining us. it is almost exactly half an hour - it is almost exactly half an hour until the results of the conservative leadership ballot are due to be announced, whether the former chancellor rishi sunak is going to be crowned as the next

leader of the tory party, next prime minister or will face a challenge from his only remaining rivalfor that position, penny mordaunt, and the numbers currently don't stack up in her favour. the numbers currently don't stack up in herfavour. she needs 100 to be on the ballot at to be, and her team have been saying that they have more than 90, but even if it is close, even one short, it's not enough, and the bbc can verify the numbers currently as being 27, but that does not mean that is all she has got, it's just that those are the numbers that have confirmed directly to the bbc. and as for rishi sunak, he has the stated support of more than half of the party. i'm joined now by will tanner, director of the 0nward think—tank and former deputy head of policy to theresa may. welcome. what is your sense as to

what might unfold in the next half hour? do you think we definitely will go to the reveal on the ballot? i think it is clear that the 1922 committee will make an announcement within the next hour or so and from the publicly declared numbers we know rishi sunak is well out in front. i think the remaining question is whether or not penny mordaunt tries to force it to a vote of the membership or whether she concedes, recognising the majority of her colleagues in parliament are backing rishi sunak.— backing rishi sunak. there is quite a conversation _ backing rishi sunak. there is quite a conversation under _ backing rishi sunak. there is quite a conversation under way - backing rishi sunak. there is quite a conversation under way in - backing rishi sunak. there is quite a conversation under way in the i a conversation under way in the party on what is better for party unity and democracy on that front. 0ne unity and democracy on that front. one of her key backers george freeman has said it is now time for her to row in behind rishi sunak. i was talking a little while ago to michael fabricant, originally a supporter of borisjohnson and now penny mordaunt and says the reason he is doing that if he feels very strongly that the wider conservative party should have a vote. yes.

strongly that the wider conservative party should have a vote.— party should have a vote. yes, i think the difficulty _ party should have a vote. yes, i think the difficulty with - party should have a vote. yes, i think the difficulty with that - think the difficulty with that argument is that the last time we had this leadership contest, rishi sunak came second, came second by a narrow wet margin that most people expected, and penny mordaunt did not get through to the final two, so i think rishi sunak not only has the support of the vast majority of mps, now more than 200 according to some tallies, but he also is the person who came second last time and therefore i think has a decent call to be the next leader of the party and the next prime minister. what and the next prime minister. what does the party _ and the next prime minister. what does the party stand _ and the next prime minister. what does the party stand for, - and the next prime minister. what does the party stand for, going forward, under rishi sunak and with the backdrop that is causing so much difficulty, notjust in political and economic terms but of course for people all around the country? we are in people all around the country? - are in very difficult times and many

people around the country are worried. we have some polling out today that shows that people are desperately worried about the cost of living, rising bills, their mortgages, interest rates, and the next prime minister will have to grapple with that. i think the most important thing for whoever becomes prime minister is that they set out a unifying mission that can be supported by the entire country, which means moving away from some of the more ideological or dogmatic libertarian policies that liz truss and kwasi kwarteng had and moving more towards national conservatism, the one the conservative party had a majority within 2019, supporting economic policies that support everyone, notjust the better off. socially and culturally conservative policies on things like immigration and crime. that will what win the conservatives back the support of the country and give people back a government that they can support. you where an adviser to theresa may.

you where an adviser to theresa may. you are talking about getting unity, about delivering for the country, but five tory prime ministers in six years. is the now effectively ungovernable? taste years. is the now effectively ungovernable?— years. is the now effectively ungovernable? years. is the now effectively uncovernable? . , ungovernable? we will see in the cominu ungovernable? we will see in the coming weeks — ungovernable? we will see in the coming weeks whether _ ungovernable? we will see in the coming weeks whether the - ungovernable? we will see in the coming weeks whether the partyl ungovernable? we will see in the i coming weeks whether the party can become together. i think history has demonstrated the conservative party is both ruthless at getting rid of leaders who are not able to satisfy or represent the interests of the entire country, but they are also kind of hell bent on representing that country at elections and making sure that they are putting across a broad platform that can satisfy both working class lever voters from the north of england and provincial voters in the south and i think there is an opportunity for the party to do that over the next two years, they have two years to come together and they really must if they want to regain a majority at they want to regain a majority at the next election. they want to regain a ma'ority at the next election.i they want to regain a ma'ority at the next election. thank you very much indeed _ the next election. thank you very much indeed for _ the next election. thank you very much indeed forjoining _ the next election. thank you very

much indeed forjoining us. i with me now is political correspondent for the guardian, aubrey allegretti. what is your sense of where things are going? it what is your sense of where things are auoin ? , , what is your sense of where things are uuoin? , , m are going? it is very difficult. i think the conservative - are going? it is very difficult. i think the conservative party i are going? it is very difficult. i i think the conservative party has got itself into a quagmire. summed up by one mp i spoke to this morning who said my head is with rishi sunak, my heart is with penny mordaunt and my soul is with borisjohnson. i think that exposes the division we are seeing. whoever the candidate is that gets it, whether rishi sunak who is correlated later today or whether penny mordaunt manages to squeak on the ballot paper, they will have ringing in their ears the sound of unhappy conservative mps. there is also two quite important meetings that have taken place today, they european research group and the one nation conservatives, neither of which have come out collectively to agree they will endorse either candidate. you can read that as either they couldn't agree who to endorse or it means they want to leave open the option that whoever gets it, they will have to swing their weight behind them. but still very difficult few weeks

going forward and i'm sure that the first person who gets it will get a few weeks of relative calm and stability, but then questions will start to shutting setting about the longer term. start to shutting setting about the longer term-— start to shutting setting about the longer term. both those groups of mps, while _ longer term. both those groups of mps, while not _ longer term. both those groups of mps, while not endorsing - longer term. both those groups of mps, while not endorsing either i mps, while not endorsing either candidate, saying they will support whoever gets in. in terms of whether the party can't unite, what they all know is that if they don't, if things fall apart and it goes to an election, currently it doesn't matter who is leading the party. they will face a drubbing by labour at an election. might that focus minds? it at an election. might that focus minds? , ., , ., at an election. might that focus minds? , ., y., ., minds? it should end you would exect it minds? it should end you would expeet it to. _ minds? it should end you would expect it to, but _ minds? it should end you would expect it to, but i _ minds? it should end you would expect it to, but i am _ minds? it should end you would| expect it to, but i am surprised, minds? it should end you would i expect it to, but i am surprised, to put it mildly, at the level of feeling barriers between people here in downing street and in the conservative party who think that it would be beneficialfor the party to spend a period in opposition and think that that would be the thing that would focus minds. the longer this is drawn out for, the worse the

party does in the polls potentially because then people start to become frustrated by the fact that there is this new leader who doesn't seemingly have a mandate from the country even if they have been selected by the members of parliament here in westminster, and that situation becomes untenable. it should focus minds and i'm sure that will be the key message we hear from whoever the winner is, that it is either me or the labour party and there are lots of reasons you should pick me and backed me over them, but there are increasing them as a people who think it will be more beneficial for the conservatives to spend some time in opposition. it is just once they are there they don't know how long they will be therefore.— know how long they will be therefore. , ., ., therefore. the parties are now re therefore. the parties are now pretty close — therefore. the parties are now pretty close together - therefore. the parties are now pretty close together in i therefore. the parties are now pretty close together in terms| therefore. the parties are now. pretty close together in terms of what they are offering. there was very clear distance between them under liz truss a' offering but that is gone. in terms of where things need to go, and also that black hole in the public finances of around a0 billion, there is not a huge amount of leeway for anyone, is there? ii of leeway for anyone, is there? if rishi sunak does become leader then there are questions about whether he

essentially does the same thing as liz truss and brings in people who helped him and his leadership campaign who were really close allies, but then you risk alienating liz truss' wing of the party or whether you try to bring together this cabinet of talent but then you risk bringing in people who you might argue, risk bringing in people who you mightargue, orso risk bringing in people who you might argue, or so are some conservative mps they are not fit to be cabinet ministers. a very difficult situation in terms of how the new prime minister differentiates himself from labour. if they swing too close to the centre or centre right then i think you will hear very very loudly a chorus from those mps on the right of the party, particularly at the brexiteer when, of the party, particularly at the brexiteerwhen, if of the party, particularly at the brexiteer when, if we see for example a liberalising of immigration to help deal with some of the economic troubles we have had, that is where rishi sunak will probably sense there is a lot of danger so we'll have to straddle a very fine line of trying to pivot slightly more towards labour and try to gather up those votes from the centre ground whilst not all so upsetting those on the right of the party who feel that there would be a

complete dereliction of what the conservatives stood for and were voted in four in 2019.— conservatives stood for and were voted in four in 2019. when people talk about the _ voted in four in 2019. when people talk about the frustration _ voted in four in 2019. when people talk about the frustration they i voted in four in 2019. when people talk about the frustration they feel| talk about the frustration they feel in hearing the conversations focusing around how political parties can protect themselves, protect their mps in an election, is there a disconnect between the conversations at westminster and what is happening out in the country at large? i what is happening out in the country at larue? ., what is happening out in the country at larue? ~ at large? i think so. there will obviously _ at large? i think so. there will obviously be _ at large? i think so. there will obviously be huge _ at large? i think so. there will obviously be huge amounts i at large? i think so. there will obviously be huge amounts of| at large? i think so. there will- obviously be huge amounts of people who think that this new conservative leader has even less of a mandate that liz truss did because they haven't been elected via a general election. but the problem is there is no fix any more, the election comes at the behest of the prime minister, so if it is rishi he has two and a bit years is that there's almost nothing that could force him to do so. labour has obviously not done what we thought they might do last week, when liz truss was really on the rails, and tabled a vote of

no confidence in the house of commons because the conservative still nominally have a very large majority of about 70 so there will be a real attention on whether labour decide that that new prime minister, the moment they are in store, whether to push the nuclear button, call a vote of no confidence and see how many conservatives will vote for it. you would imagine none will put it will show that are ne . ative will put it will show that are negative about _ will put it will show that are negative about stability does the argument potentially get turned on them in that it is effectively your turmoil in the short term? yes because general— turmoil in the short term? jezs because general election campaigns, we are looking at a minimum of four weeks and that'll be incredibly short. argument labour would make is probably that, sort of like this conservative mps have done, short—term disruption is better overall for the country rather than something that drags on and unlike would have happened if liz truss had refused to go and we were still

having conversations about how they