this is bbc news — these are the latest headlines in the uk and around the world. interest rates in the uk are expected to hit their highest level for m years as the bank of england tries to curb soaring inflation. as a retired person, if investments go up, that's good, isn't it? for a lot of other things, it's going to be really problematic. the uk government faces a possible legal challange over the way the manston migrant processing centre in south east england is run. we've learnt the home secretary is making her way to the coast in kent. it is not about albanians, or aliens, or gangsters, but it is about failed policies on borders and

on crime. the uk's approach to controlling migration also faces strong criticism from abroad, with this intervention from the albanian prime minister. ukraine's nuclear energy company says the zaporizhzhia plant has been disconnnected from the electricity grid and has only 15 days of generator fuel left. a surprise peace deal after nearly two years of civil war in ethiopia. it's hoped vital aid can now flow into tigray, where 90% of the population is going hungry. here in the uk, the second report into the manchester arena bombing in 2017 is due out later, and is likely to be highly critical of the response of the emergency services. a un report says one third of the glaciers located in world heritage sites will disappear by 2050 because of climate change.

hello and welcome if you're watching in the uk or around the world. uk interest rates are expected to rise sharply today as the bank of england attempts to tackle soaring prices. the bank is expected to increase its base rate by three quarters of a percentage point from 2.25% to 3% — which would be the biggest single increase since 1989 in the us, the federal reserve has approved a rise in interest rates by 0.75 percentage points — lifting them to their highest level since 2008. it comes as many other countries also raise rates in response to rising prices, fuelled by a mix of factors including higher energy prices as a result of the war in ukraine. 0ur correspondent navtej johal has this report. 0mar is a veterinary surgeon based in derby. he came to the uk four years ago and had planned to buy a home and settle here long term.

with interest rates here expected to rise further today, which is likely to make mortgages more expensive, 0mar says he's now considering whether he should even stay in the uk. have you lost trust in the uk? i trust my colleagues, i trust my friends, i trust a lot of people in the uk. it shook my trust in the system. and you may move, you may leave the country? the bank of england sets interest rates for the uk. at the moment they are 2.25% but are expected to increase later today, possibly up to 3%, in an attempt to deal with rising inflation, which is the rate at which prices are going up. this will affect savers and borrowers, including people with existing mortgages and first—time buyers. becky was hoping to buy her first house in derby with her partner. we were working it out and thinking, yeah, we can do this.

we can do this. with the rates now, we're a lot more hesitant. you'rejust banging your head up against a brick wall, like, where do i go from here? what? what's the answer? what's the solution? and right now, i genuinely don't know the answer to that question. jay runs a music venue in the city. he's a homeowner who's worried about his repayments jumping massively in a few months�* time. it's going to increase by about 4%. at the moment, i'm looking at around about £150 a month increase on my monthly payment. the basic things that people need is a roof over the head to be able to keep warm and to be able to eat. and it feels like all three elements there are being attacked by what's going on in the economy. well, despite the recent rises in interest rates, people are still getting or renewing their mortgage here in derby and across the country. but perhaps even more elusive than a decent mortgage deal at the moment is some level of certainty about what comes next. take your 25 year mortgage...

michelle has worked in the mortgage industry for more than 20 years. she says she's never seen anything like the current situation. i want to see some stability in the market. i'd love to see them kind of say, right, well, we've put it up 1%, but that's it. you know, forfor six months. for eight months, you know, for a year, you know, let's just give people a bit of stability so they know where they are. in the meantime, there will be plenty watching what the bank of england decides to do later today and bracing themselves for what the next few months may hold. navteonhal, bbc news. let's get more on this from katharine nice, chief european economist at the investment management business, p—gim. she's previously held executive roles at the bank of england, including head of the policy, strategy and implementation. thank you very much forjoining us. what is your expectation of what will be announced at 12 o'clock today? the market is very focused on

a hike of 75 points later today. that reflects the need to tame inflation and also restore credibility following market reaction to the many budget. we could see another november surprise from the bank of england like what we saw in november last year and for them to deliver a more moderate 50 point increase later today. i5 them to deliver a more moderate 50 point increase later today.— point increase later today. is that because of— point increase later today. is that because of the _ point increase later today. is that because of the threat _ point increase later today. is that because of the threat of - point increase later today. is that because of the threat of looming | because of the threat of looming recession with people seen juggling difficult sets of costs? recession with people seen “uggling difficult sets of costs?_ difficult sets of costs? inflation remains uncomfortably - difficult sets of costs? inflation remains uncomfortably high . difficult sets of costs? inflation | remains uncomfortably high and difficult sets of costs? inflation - remains uncomfortably high and the uk market is still tight. that is telling the bank of england that interest rates do need to rise in order to bring demand down and return inflation to a 2% target. we need to remember the bank of england was one of the first central banks to start raising rates. they had done so in a predictable and

moderate pace, really, since december of last year. that should help to ensure against their need for the bank to have to raise rates too aggressively into what we are seeing as a weakening in the uk economy. we are seeing job vacancies full—back, retailsales economy. we are seeing job vacancies full—back, retail sales contracting and most worryingly, consumer confidence is really falling very sharply. all of these messages are signs that the bank of england will need to respond to and i think would help support a more measured interest rate rise going into today's meeting.— interest rate rise going into today's meeting. interest rate rise going into toda 's meetinu. ., . ., , today's meeting. how much of this difficult period _ today's meeting. how much of this difficult period we _ today's meeting. how much of this difficult period we are _ today's meeting. how much of this difficult period we are in _ today's meeting. how much of this difficult period we are in is - today's meeting. how much of this difficult period we are in is due - today's meeting. how much of this difficult period we are in is due to l difficult period we are in is due to widerfactors like difficult period we are in is due to wider factors like ukraine and difficult period we are in is due to widerfactors like ukraine and how much of it is caused by the many budget we saw from liz truss and kwasi kwarteng? how long to rectify those decisions by previous incumbents in downing street here? it is very difficult to unpick the

precise impact of all the shocks that are hitting the uk economy. we have brexit, the energy shop due to the russian invasion of ukraine, we have had the pandemic. it is very hard to unpick the direct impact of all of those. couple of factors i would note that, firstly, the market reaction to the many budget does strongly signal that some combination of higher taxes and lower spending will be needed in order to restore credibility in the uk's fiscal approach. that will lead to lower economic activity and depend on demand. 0n the other side we have seen this energy price rise. this is really reflecting the war in europe. there is no setting a bank rate by the bank of england that can somehow change the fact we will be

spending more of our income on energy and that will mean there is less to spend on other things and that will be a negative for uk economic activity. we that will be a negative for uk economic activity.— that will be a negative for uk economic activity. we are waiting for the government _ economic activity. we are waiting l for the government announcement economic activity. we are waiting - for the government announcement on what their plans are on tax and spending in the next couple of weeks. forthe spending in the next couple of weeks. for the average household income, how much would you expect people to feel things getting more difficult over the next few months to a year or so? the difficult over the next few months to a year or so?— difficult over the next few months to a year or so? the combination of tiuhter to a year or so? the combination of tighter fiscal— to a year or so? the combination of tighter fiscal policy _ to a year or so? the combination of tighter fiscal policy and _ to a year or so? the combination of tighter fiscal policy and monetary . tighter fiscal policy and monetary policy does paint a very challenging picture, as we head into this winter. energy prices are going up. we are seeing that in the price we pay for petrol at the pump in terms of higher utility bills. energy goes into pretty much every single thing we buy. food in particular is extremely energy intensive, along the entire production process from

fertilisers to harvesting to food processing and then bringing it home for us to have in our homes. and so there is higher energy prices are really pushing up on food prices and will do so. time. again that is something that we are starting to see. —— for some time. if something that we are starting to see. -- for some time.— something that we are starting to see. -- for some time. if the war in ukraine continues, _ see. -- for some time. if the war in ukraine continues, how— see. -- for some time. if the war in ukraine continues, how much - see. -- for some time. if the war in ukraine continues, how much more| ukraine continues, how much more difficult does it get for any government to bring about growth in this country?— this country? there are going to be no simle this country? there are going to be no simple or— this country? there are going to be no simple or easy _ this country? there are going to be no simple or easy answers. - this country? there are going to be no simple or easy answers. it - this country? there are going to be no simple or easy answers. it is - no simple or easy answers. it is going to be fine balance. no simple or easy answers. it is going t( example balance. bank turn for example to central bank they are really trying do not entrenched o not ultimately that make to shock adjusting to this shockeven more

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suella braverman is under pressure. those human stories that are going on. criticism from abroad as well. ,, , , are going on. criticism from abroad as well several being immigration and said was an sai they is ani�*is�*iflj ’ " ’ ' ”w” ' sai they is an" it i542”? ’ " ’ ' ”w” ' sai they is an" it is i”? ’ " ’ ' ”w” ' need try get deb'em the rises! tsii trig mists — —— — —— — s on. braverman deb'em the rieet! tti trig tnzete — —— — —— — s on. braverman is kent today, she is expected in to kent today, she is expected in dover and the manston facility. what is not clear is whether we will hear from her. unusually, the media is not getting access to her visit. it is not clear whether there will be a chance to ask her any questions. she will be seeing what is going on

chance to ask her any questions. she will be seeing what is gt been| herself while there have been questions around how she is handling it herself. someone who is talking at the moment is the albanian prime minister. he was talking to newsnight yesterday, responding to a lot of focus that has been on albania in the last few days. of the 14,000 albania in the last few days. of the 1a,000 or so migrants that have reached the uk on small boats from france, a quarter of them are from albania. government ministers have said some of those people are involved in criminal gangs, they have been accused of avoiding modern —— abusing modern slavery bills. the albanian prime minister took exception to some of the rhetoric that was used. it exception to some of the rhetoric that was used.— that was used. it is about failed olicies. it is not about albanians or aliens or gangsters, but it is about failed policies on borders and crime. what realistically is the home secretary likely to do to try and mitigate some of this pressure?

manston is clearly a bottleneck that needs process to be sorted out. there is a much more complex policy question, isn't there?— question, isn't there? there is. it is interlinked. _ question, isn't there? there is. it is interlinked. there _ question, isn't there? there is. it is interlinked. there is _ question, isn't there? there is. it is interlinked. there is a - question, isn't there? there is. it is interlinked. there is a problem| is interlinked. there is a problem in terms of accommodation being gummed up for people who are arriving. that is why you have overcrowding at a facility that is only meant to hold 1000 or so people for a short amount of time. yesterday a minister said there are currently 3500 people in manston and then the question of how you redistribute people to other accommodation. certainly the opposition has criticised the ability of the home office to deal with that part of the problem. there is a wider issue of the surge of boats crossing the channel. ministers know they need to reach some sort of new arrangement with france to try to stem the flow of small boats. there is a long—term problem about the length of time it

takes to process asylum applications. in the uk on average it is taking about 1k months, much higher than many other european countries. there is a problem there. the government thought they had an answer in its plan to send people to rwanda. the government is trying to find solutions to a problem that is manifesting itself in several fronts right now. manifesting itself in several fronts riaht now. ., manifesting itself in several fronts riuht now. ., ,, ., right now. some have said suella braverman _ right now. some have said suella braverman will _ right now. some have said suella braverman will not _ right now. some have said suella braverman will not last _ right now. some have said suella braverman will not last the - right now. some have said suella braverman will not last the week| braverman will not last the week that she is important for rishi sunak to meet certain concerns of people on the right of the conservative party.- people on the right of the conservative party. that is why it was assumed _ conservative party. that is why it was assumed she _ conservative party. that is why it was assumed she was _ conservative party. that is why it was assumed she was brought i conservative party. that is why it i was assumed she was brought back into government so soon after quitting, after sending six e—mails from her own private account to recipients. that is why she left the government. she was brought back

days later having banked rishi sunak over that weekend in the leadership contest. no sign rishi sunak is distancing himself from her. he feels they are in this together. there are clearly still questions around herjudgment and whether or not she ignored legal advice about the situation in manston, a claim she denies. i think she is in a fairly precarious political position. like rishi sunak, they promised controller borders join the eu referendum. right now it does not look like the government had a great deal of controller number is coming overin deal of controller number is coming over in small boats across the channel. they are under tremendous pressure to find a solution to match rhetoric. earlier i spoke to alice taylor, editor and journalist based in the albania's capital tirana. i asked her to explain why albanians are coming to the uk, claiming asylum, given it is a safe country? it isa it is a very good question and it

has a very complex answer. it is a safe country, i live here, i love living here. there are many problems here. we had to consider as well that in europe and the uk, a high percentage of asylum requests from albanians get approved and granted. i have interviewed people who had been subjected to blood feuds and horrific violence from organised crime. members of the lgbt community who were hounded out of their local communities. they are valid requests. there is a lot of work that needs to be done on the ground on albania to fix the problems here. there is also work that needs to be donein there is also work that needs to be done in the uk to prevent this as well. ifeel throwing done in the uk to prevent this as well. i feel throwing around this rhetoric, like an invasion, which is what we talk about in war, this does absolutely nothing to help any of the problems which are creating this perfect storm situation. it:

the problems which are creating this perfect storm situation.— perfect storm situation. is there a roblem perfect storm situation. is there a problem with _ perfect storm situation. is there a problem with albanian _ perfect storm situation. is there a problem with albanian gangs? - perfect storm situation. is there a. problem with albanian gangs? how much of that is fuelling the small boat crossing, do we know? albanians had been leaving _ boat crossing, do we know? albanians had been leaving the _ boat crossing, do we know? albanians had been leaving the country - boat crossing, do we know? albanians had been leaving the country for- had been leaving the country for decades, for years, had been leaving the country for decades, foryears, in had been leaving the country for decades, for years, in regular ways. this is nothing new, nothing new. for the last ten years, you know, people having going to france, germany, italy, greece. this is not a new situation. what has happened in terms of the uk in the last few months as there had been gangs who have been operating through tick—tock, he had capitalised on already existing flows of migration and have sought to market and target people to encourage more people to go to the uk. again i do not see this as anything new. people have been leaving for a very long time. the gangs that are organising this, many of them are based in the uk. this is something that needs to be

dealt with by the uk government as well. it does not mean that every single albanian person that is driven to desperation and is crossing the channel to the uk, it does not make than a criminal, it does not make than a criminal, it does not make them a member of an organised crime gang or a threat to british society. iii organised crime gang or a threat to british society.— british society. if there are criminal gangs _ british society. if there are criminal gangs coming - british society. if there are | criminal gangs coming over british society. if there are i criminal gangs coming over in british society. if there are - criminal gangs coming over in more numbers, it is a threat to british society. why should the uk taxpayer have to put more and more money into this? ., , . ., ., ,., this? nobody said criminal gangs are auoin into this? nobody said criminal gangs are going into battle _ this? nobody said criminal gangs are going into battle to _ this? nobody said criminal gangs are going into battle to people _ this? nobody said criminal gangs are going into battle to people crossing i going into battle to people crossing the channel i regular people. the people organising this are criminals that are based in the uk. these other people that are bringing them there. your average man, young boy, girl, from a village in albania is not a criminal. they are desperate for a better quality of life. they may be fleeing six trafficking. that is what an economic migrant is that

there is people are not eligible to come into the uk will come into any country illegally. if you are talking about lgbt rights and so on, is there a route for them to apply for asylum in the uk illegally? why would they not go down that route and instead endanger their own lives by crossing the channel? thea;i and instead endanger their own lives by crossing the channel?— by crossing the channel? they do that because _ by crossing the channel? they do that because they _ by crossing the channel? they do that because they are _ by crossing the channel? they do that because they are desperate. | that because they are desperate. when you said that in the uk, you are allowed to request asylum. that is what they are doing. up to 53% of asylum requests in the last year had been approved. this hateful rhetoric pushed by a government that is ultimately failing and the laughing stock for the rest of europe is simply to distract from this. they are pushing this rhetoric to distract from their own failures. there is a problem with albanians going to the uk. to say all of them are criminals abusing the system is completely wrong and itjeopardises

those people who are fleeing blood feuds or various other forms of violence. , ., , , violence. their lives may be in dan . er. violence. their lives may be in danger. alice _ violence. their lives may be in danger. alice taylor, - violence. their lives may be in danger. alice taylor, a - violence. their lives may be in i danger. alice taylor, a journalist based in terrano, the capital of albania, speaking to me a short time ago. the british parliament's committee on standards has recommended that the conservative mp, andrew bridgen, be suspended from the commons for five days for breaching its code of conduct. officials say he displayed a "cavalier attitude" to the rules on lobbying, and made an "unacceptable attack" upon the integrity of the the standards commissioner. mr bridgen has said he's extremely disappointed but will accept the suspension. ukraine's nuclear energy company says the zaporizhzia nuclear power plant has been disconnected from the power grid, due to russian military activity in the area. the company said the power plant had just 15 days of fuel left to run the generators and would be switching part of the plant to a cold state to preserve energy supplies. 0ur correspondent catherine byaru hanga is following developments from kyiv. (tx sot)

what we're hearing from ukraine official says there had been shelling overnight. that hit the last remaining high power voltage lines connecting this power plant to ukraine's national power grid. since fighting began, the six main reactors at the nuclear power plant have had to be shut down. that means they are not generating electricity for ukraine. even though it is not generating electricity, the plant needs power. it needs power to cool remaining fuel, to make sure there is not a meltdown. you can imagine how much of a precarious situation that is. now it is operating on back—up diesel generators that only have fuel for 15 days. that leads to concern. this is not the first time the power plant has been knocked off the power plant has been knocked off the power plant has been knocked off the power grid. it has happened numerous times during the conflict. it has been brought back online, so thatis it has been brought back online, so

that is a relief. it also leads to one growing concerns a lot of people have about the safety of europe's biggest nuclear power plant. a long—awaited report is released later today into the response of the emergency services to the bomb attack at the manchester arena in northern england five years ago. 22 people died in the attack. the report is expected to be very critical of the police, ambulance, and fire services. one of the firefighters has told the bbc that the response had been "embarassing and shameful." judith moritz has been talking to a man who tried repeatedly to save the life of a 28—year—old victim, whose family say he was "badly let down" by the emergency services. siren wails in the aftermath of the explosion at manchester arena, sirens screeched towards the scene. but the police were in disarray, paramedics mostly stayed out of the blast area, and the fire service didn't respond

at all for more than two hours. firefighters were held back by their commanders at a station three miles away. we just waited and waited for instruction. this firefighter is speaking anonymously, for fear of losing his job. so, as time went on, it was more embarrassing, and more and more frustrating, and then there's the feeling of guilt... "well, maybe if i did something." even so small, you know, you can hold your head up high, but to stand there and do nothing all that time, it was embarrassing, shameful. failings by all of the emergency services meant the public had to step in, people like ron blake, himself injured, who could see that the man next to him was badly hurt. what did you notice about him? just the blood that were there — like, a trail. so ijust went to see how he were. but he was talking. told me his name and all that. i asked him where he were from. so, he communicated.

and less than a minute of that explosion, you rang 999, didn't you? yeah. police, emergency, - hello, can you hear me? john atkinson was the man ron was trying to help. his legs were bleeding heavily. 0n the way down, i remembered my wife had a belt on, so i asked her to give me her belt. ron tied the belt tightly around john's leg to slow the bleeding. we know you did that for the best part of an hour. yeah. you thought help would be soon. yeah. it just seemed to last forever. seemed to go on and on and on, and nobody were coming, so ijust kept trying to talk tojohn. kept saying, "i'm not going to...

"i'm going to die?, aren't i?" i kept saying, "no, you're not." "you're not." and they got a barrier, a metal barrier, and then put him on that, went round to the lift, he wouldn't fit in the lift, so i had to go back and go down the stairs. not one paramedic attended tojohn inside the arena. he was carried out on a makeshift stretcher to a casualty area outside. ron left him after an hour, thinking he would be ok now there were medics with him. when did you find out that john had passed away? that next day, in the hospital. it were on the news. i went outside, i went through some doors and... just broke down. the inquiry has heard experts saying thatjohn had a high chance of survival. yeah. big mistakes were made that night. you're sure of that. yeah. the ambulance service have apologised, fire service, the police, does that help, does it mean anything, hearing those apologies? no. john's family have thanked you, haven't they? they've said how grateful they are.

yeah. i hope i did what i could. you did so much, didn't you? other people have said that i did. but ijust looked at it as, i did what anybody else would have done. well, volume two of the manchester arena inquiry gets published this afternoon at 2.30pm. we will bring you that as soon at it is released. with nearly all of the votes counted in israel's fifth election in four years, the former prime minister benjamin netanyahu is set to return to power. his bloc, which relies heavily on a far—right party, is predicted to take 65 of the 120 seats. i asked our middle east correspondent, tom bateman, for the latest.

what we will get tonight, what is likely to happen at least is the finish of the vote count, and then we will have it confirmed that mr netanyahu is in a position, comfortably, to lead a religious and right—wing majority coalition in israel's parliament. part of that coalition bloc will be an anti—arab and openly racist far—right party, which saw a huge surge in support during the election campaign. what we would expect to happen in the next few days are discussions between him and other party leaders, before they have official talks of putting together a coalition. that will probably happen later next week. at the same time you will have horse trading between those groups about the policies they want to get put into place, about the budgets they will get. we could therefore see some of the figures within that far right alliance being given senior ministerial positions in israel. all of that has been leading to a lot of concern, not least internationally.

we had the us saying last night that they expect israeli government officials, and they said all officials, to share values of an open and democratic society and respect and tolerance for minorities. what could the inclusion of that far right element mean for daily life in israel? i think the first point to say is that some of the figures involved, one about whom there has been much focus, itamar ben—gvir, he leads thejewish power faction, which will be part of that coalition, and could get a seat around the cabinet table, is somebody that has been seen merely as a street agitator, that wherever you find tensions in israel and occupied palestinian territories, he will often be there in the view of his critics pouring petrol on the flames of conflict that already exist. people are really worried

about because if he got a position, for example, if he is asked to be the minister of internal security, that would give him control of the police and that concerns people. more explicitly in terms of policy, these are parties to argue for the annexation of the occupied west bank. that means what they want is israel to take the land but not the palestinian people who live there. that of course would, and has in the past, when the policy has been suggested, met met with international condemnation. and also this is a party that openly calls for the expulsion of disloyal arabs. that is creating mood among palestinian citizens of israel of of concern. we had from when yesterday's speaking of the fear within the community that could lead to more violence. $1150 within the community that could lead to more violence.— to more violence. also reports of an attack in old — to more violence. also reports of an attack in old jerusalem _ to more violence. also reports of an attack in old jerusalem an _ to more violence. also reports of an attack in old jerusalem an hour - to more violence. also reports of an attack in old jerusalem an hour ago. this is in the old city of jerusalem, close to the very sensitive holy sites. the

palestinian attacker, according to reports whose dad two police officers. two police officers injured. they shot the palestinian who has been killed. yet another attack. that in context of the year of deadly violence which has seen more than 20 israelis killed and more than 20 israelis killed and more than 20 israelis killed and more than a70 palestinians killed this year. there was a was concerned that this violence was going to continue throughout this year. we have seen incidents in the occupied west bank, much of the wave of violence being focused that. in context of the election which is raising more things about all of this, of course, this latest bit of news comes in what was already a time when people were raising concerns about the level of violence. tom bateman for us.

there is also another warning that temperatures in europe have been rising by more than twice the global average. the world meteorological 0rganisation says communities will continue to be hit by exceptional heat, wildfires, and floods. azadeh moshiri has the details. this year's extreme weather was a reminder that global warming is happening — and it's accelerating. that's something scientists keep warning us. but now, a new report by the united nations says one region is warming faster than others. europe. so we often — and rightly — hear in conversation or communication about climate change, about the 1.5 degree global temperature limit, as set out in the paris agreement. but we must not forget that europe actually warms faster than this — faster than this global average. europe has warmed at more than twice the global average over

the past three decades. its average temperatures have risen by 0.5 degrees celsius per decade, and the consequences have been severe. last year, half a million people were directly affected, and hundreds were killed. it caused more than $50 billion in economic damage. there are a number of reasons why europe's cities have now been dubbed "heat islands". land warms faster than the sea, and europe has lots of it. add to that the highest regions of the globe are quickly heating up. so the un said, even though europe is making good headway in cutting emissions, it needs to do more to stop its rivers from drying up, and to prevent floods that swallow up entire roads. even if we get it down to zero emissions and we can limit it to two, we're looking at conditions that are going to be a lot more extreme and we're going to have to live with that. so building resilience into our communities, all those hard lessons we're learning through covid, and all the other terrible changes we're seeing,

that's going to become the new norms. the un's climate conference, cop27, is only days away. this report is a reminder of why scientists call climate change a crisis. azadeh moshiri, bbc news. well, staying with climate change, and a united nations report says that a third of the glaciers located in world heritage sites will vanish by 2050 because of global warming. (00v) researchers used existing satellite data to track the shrinking of nearly 19,000 glaciers. they concluded that even if global temperature increases were kept below 1.5 degrees, many of them would still be gone in three decades time. unesco's tales carvalho resende is the report author. (tx sot) the last remaining glaziers in africa, mount kilimanjaro, but also some other iconic glaziers, such as the dolomites here in italy, as well as yosemite park

in yellowstone in the united states. by 2100, around half of the glaziers in world heritage sites will disappear in a business as usual scenario. every year, the world heritage glaziers are losing 58 million tonnes of ice. this represents the water consumed in france and spain combined. and also, this represents around 5% of global sea—level rise. and i will say that this is particularly alarming because the risks that are implied by this are manyfold. this could lead to coastal erosion, for instance, but also a high risk of cyclones, storms and tsunamis.

dr simon cook, senior lecturer in environmental science, university of dundee. thank you forjoining us. we heard something there about the impact of these glaciers melting. explain to us how worrying it is to see this rapid change. it us how worrying it is to see this rapid change-— us how worrying it is to see this rapid change. it is very worrying because glaciers _ rapid change. it is very worrying because glaciers are _ rapid change. it is very worrying because glaciers are incredibly i because glaciers are incredibly important. they are incredibly important. they are incredibly important water resources. they store water and release it slowly over time and that's important for water supply, for irrigation, for driving hydropower, for supporting ecosystems as well. if these glaciers disappear then there is a real concern over water supply. the other issue is that in these mountain environments, more local to the glaciers, as the glaciers drink and then and recede, these environments loosen up and become a

bit more dangerous so you might anticipate there will be more landslides, more glacier collapses, as we saw in the dolomites back in july. more catastrophic flooding and so on. so it's a real concern the glaciers are shrinking so quickly. which parts of the world are most vulnerable at the moment?- which parts of the world are most vulnerable at the moment? there are ve few vulnerable at the moment? there are very few places _ vulnerable at the moment? there are very few places in _ vulnerable at the moment? there are very few places in the _ vulnerable at the moment? there are very few places in the world - vulnerable at the moment? there are very few places in the world where i very few places in the world where glaciers aren't shrinking and receding. when you think about things like water supply, my main concern would be around the areas, the countries where rivers drain from the himalayas, india, pakistan, nepal and so on to stop some countries around the andes, peru, bolivia and elsewhere. those countries are particularly susceptible to changes in water supply. 0ther susceptible to changes in water supply. other places like the european alps, switzerland and other countries where hydropower is fed by

glacier melt water. so if glaciers shrink very rapidly then that puts those energy supplies at risk. it: those energy supplies at risk. is there anything urgently that any government can do now? we know the broader calls, and we will see a lot more of it next weekend in the next few days, but what would you say to governments listening? we few days, but what would you say to governments listening?— governments listening? we really need to cut _ governments listening? we really need to cut carbon. _ governments listening? we really need to cut carbon. i _ governments listening? we really need to cut carbon. i think- governments listening? we really need to cut carbon. i think one i governments listening? we really need to cut carbon. i think one of| need to cut carbon. i think one of the disappointing aspects of last year plus mick cop 26 was the watering down of some of the statements on coal combustion. from phasing out to phasing down, watering down those statements. we need to phase out our dependence on fossil fuels. need to phase out our dependence on fossilfuels. and need to phase out our dependence on fossil fuels. and there need to phase out our dependence on fossilfuels. and there is no other big solution other than cutting our carbon emissions. sometimes locally you will see people putting

insulating blankets on glaciers on the alps for example to try to protect some tourist infrastructure and skiing infrastructure and so on, but this is small scale. what we really need to do, big scale, cut carbon emissions. we really need to do, big scale, cut carbon emissions.— really need to do, big scale, cut carbon emissions. we are seeing a bit of throwing _ carbon emissions. we are seeing a bit of throwing back _ carbon emissions. we are seeing a bit of throwing back with _ carbon emissions. we are seeing a bit of throwing back with ukraine l bit of throwing back with ukraine and fears about energy security. what are your thoughts on that? do governments inevitably not have to think about the short term safety and security of their populations evenif and security of their populations even if long—term damage is potentially there too? i even if long-term damage is potentially there too? i guess the aood thin potentially there too? i guess the good thing about _ potentially there too? i guess the good thing about being _ potentially there too? i guess the good thing about being a - potentially there too? i guess the j good thing about being a scientist is i don't have to make policy. i totally appreciate the very complicated decisions that policymakers have to make in terms of keeping the lights on first and foremost. but our longer term, these kind of things are interrelated. 0ur overdependence on fossil fuels is linked to this current energy crisis

as well. what we really need to do is reduce our dependence on fossil fuels, reduce our dependence on oil producing countries, which may not ultimately be particularly friendly to us. so it's kind of a double win, really. to us. so it's kind of a double win, reall . ., ., . ,, ., really. even if we were on track to meet pledges _ really. even if we were on track to meet pledges that _ really. even if we were on track to meet pledges that were _ really. even if we were on track to meet pledges that were made i really. even if we were on track to meet pledges that were made to l really. even if we were on track to i meet pledges that were made to now, these glaciers are still under threat, is that right?- these glaciers are still under threat, is that right? yes, that's riuht. threat, is that right? yes, that's right- glaciers — threat, is that right? yes, that's right. glaciers can _ threat, is that right? yes, that's right. glaciers can take - threat, is that right? yes, that's right. glaciers can take some i threat, is that right? yes, that's l right. glaciers can take some time to respond to climate forcing but we are kind of already committed to losing some of these glaciers. that doesn't mean to say we shouldn't try to preserve what remains by cutting carbon emissions and moving towards renewable energy. if we can do that then we can probably preserve far more of these glaciers. they will continue to be there in the future supplying water, supplying water to ecosystems and people, and that i

think is really important.— think is really important. finally, what would _ think is really important. finally, what would be _ think is really important. finally, what would be the _ think is really important. finally, what would be the rate _ think is really important. finally, what would be the rate of- think is really important. finally, | what would be the rate of change think is really important. finally, i what would be the rate of change is that governments would have to make in order to preserve glaciers? ahead of the kop summit, what will people have to do is to of the kop summit, what will people have to do is t— have to do is to knock? we are robabl have to do is to knock? we are probably behind _ have to do is to knock? we are probably behind the _ have to do is to knock? we are probably behind the curve. i have to do is to knock? we are i probably behind the curve. there are reasonably ambitious targets. where i am in scotland we are trying to get to net zero by 20a5. 0ther get to net zero by 20a5. other countries by 2050 in line with the paris agreement. we really need to cut our dependence on fossil fuels radically, and there are no silver bullets to this. it will be challenging and difficult, but i think when we come out of the other side of this we will be much more energy secure and we will hopefully preserve glaciers, ecosystems along into the future for all our children

as well. , ., ,, ., ., ., ~' into the future for all our children as well. ., ,, ., ., as well. doctor simon cook from dundee university, _ as well. doctor simon cook from dundee university, thank - as well. doctor simon cook from dundee university, thank you. i the ethiopian prime minister, abiy ahmed, says the ceasefire agreement between the government and officials from the tigray region is a monumental step for the country, ending almost two years of civil war. the african union mediator, 0lusegun 0basanjo, says it is just the beginning of the peace process. 0ur senior africa correspondent anne soy reports. it's a major breakthrough. ethiopia's government has called it "monumental". rebels have agreed to disarm. but there is some level of caution. this moment is not the end of the peace process, but the beginning of it. a previous ceasefire was breached in august. this footage is the first gathered by international media since then. a children's playground, bombed. the ethiopian government has always insisted that they are not targeting civilians.

this granny fled some of the most recent fighting. "i left my kids and grandkids," she says. she doesn't know if they survived. the displaced have harrowing stories to tell. translation: we saw elders being slaughtered, women i raped and kids killed. we've seen many things. we saw these things, that's why we were frightened and came here. there are many atrocities in this war. people are dying because of the blockade and famine. kids are dying due to a lack of medicine. we are losing people. the region has been cut off from the rest of the country and world for nearly two years now. the people here have been without banking, means of communication and power. aid agencies say almost everyone in northern tigray is in need of food aid. they're desperate for a return to normal life. at mek�*ele's largest internally displaced people's camp,

this man struggles to grow food for his family. every harvest is a disappointment. he's desperate to go back to his large farm. translation: we were working hard and living our lives. _ but now we have nothing to do. no—one is helping us. we've been here for a year now, and received aid only three times. the new deal brings hope that his and many other families can begin the journey to reconciliation. but its success hinges on the commitment of the warring parties. anne soy, bbc news, nairobi. president biden has said americans must unite in opposition to "political violence", saying democracy itself will be on the ballot paper in next week's mid—term elections. mr biden accused the former president, donald trump and his supporters of undermining democracy and fuelling anger and violence by refusing to accept the results of the 2020 presidential election. 0ur north america correspondent, peter bowes, reports from los angeles.

this was a speech organised by the democratic national committee at union station in washington, i think a deliberately chosen location, just a few blocks away from the capitol building, where last year there was that attempt by violent protesters to overturn the result of the 2020 election. but mr biden actually started his speech by talking in some detail about the attack on the husband of nancy pelosi, paul pelosi, in san francisco last week. something that has dominated the news here. the person responsible for that allegedly said, "where's nancy? where's nancy?" the same words that were used during the attack on the capitol building last year.

and president biden said americans must resolve their differences at the ballot box rather than using violence. and he urged americans to choose candidates next week who will accept the election result. he said election deniers will take the country down the road to chaos. and he did also focus on the former president, without naming him, without saying donald trump, everyone aware of who he was talking about, accusing the former president and his supporters of fuelling anger, hate and vitriol by undermining democracy. you know, american democracy is under attack because the defeated former president of the united states refuses to accept the results of the 2020 election. he refuses to accept the will of the people. the fact that he lost. he has abused his power and put the loyalty to himself before loyalty to the constitution. he's made a big lie an article of

faith in the maga republican party. now, much of what president biden was talking about during this speech he has articulated before in other speeches over the last couple of years. but it seems to be significant that he is returning to this topic just days away from polling day. he is not doing well in the opinion polls. he acknowledged during this speech that there are other issues that americans are concerned about. clearly the cost of living crisis, rising inflation, the future of abortion rights, crime in the inner cities and elsewhere. those are the issues that people are talking about. but it seems as if the president believes that there is perhaps a consensus across the country about the importance of democracy and being able to believe the result of the election. peter bowes. we have a special section on our website on the us midterms and you can find out the latest on the

developments with a guide to voting, what is at stake and implications for american politics. a court in the us state of florida has sentenced the gunman responsible for the parkland school massacre in 2018 — to life in prison without parole. 2a—year—old nikolas cruz was convicted last month of one of the worst school shootings in us history. 17 students and members of staff were killed. cruz will spend the rest of his life in a secure prison and will never be eligible for release. i was still a child when you shot me with your gun. you shot me in the leg. and if you looked me in the face like i'm looking at you right now, you would see the scars on it from the hot shrapnel that was lodged into it. do you remember after you sprayed my classroom with bullets, standing in the doorframe, peering in to see the work that you've done? do you remember my little battered bloody face looking back at you? i could have sworn we locked eyes.

south korea and the united states have agreed to extend theirjoint air drills, after the past few days of missile launches from north korea. according to the south korean military, the north launched three more ballistic missiles on thursday. warnings were issued in some regions ofjapan, but none of the missiles crossed their territory. these latest launches follow at least a dozen on wednesday, including one that landed less than 60 kilometres from the south korean city of sok—cho. the us secretary of state, antony blinken, has described the launches as "dangerous" and "escalatory". 0ur correspondentjonathan head in seoul has more. well, every missile launch by north korea is a cause for concern, both in terms of what we imagine it is telling us about the intentions of the north koreans — are they becoming more belligerent, are theyjust trying to send another kind of signal? and in terms of the possibility they are increasing their capabilities. they've been doing that for some years now, there. missile capabilities are quite diverse, quite sophisticated, and have advanced a great deal more than many people thought they would. so every missile launch

is a cause for concern. this one followed 23, the largest in a single day yesterday. one of these missiles today appears to have been a full intercontinental ballistic long—range missile that went very high up into space and then came down. it doesn't appear to have been successful. it looks like it may have broken up when it re—entered the atmosphere. but these long—range missiles are the ones that north korea has been developing and working on that could possibly at some point reached the continental united states, so they are always a cause for concern. but north korea is also working quite hard on its short—range missiles and on the possibility of putting nuclear warheads on them. those are the kinds of missiles that really worries south korea because they would be targeted here. jonathan head. brazil's defeated president, jair bolsonaro, has called on hundreds of truck drivers blocking the country's highways to go home — warning that the road blockages would cause harm to the economy. the blockades began on sunday

in protest at the right—wing incumbent�*s narrow loss to his left—wing rival, luiz inacio lula da silva. they caused severe shortages of fuel and food. in his address jair bolsonaro had this to say. translation: brazilians - who are protesting all over this country, i know you are upset. i know you are sad. you expected something else. i was just as upset and sad as you are, but we have to keep our heads straight. protests and demonstrations are very welcome. they are part of the democratic game and over the years a lot of this was done by brazil, in esplanada, copacabana, paulista and many, many other places. now there's something that's not cool. the closing of highways in brazil harms people's right to travel. uk home secretary suella braverman

is in dover as she battles to get a grip on the chaos in the asylum system amid international criticism over her claim the uk faced an "invasion" of migrants. let's talk to michael keohan, bbc political reporter for kent. i don't know if you can tell us where you are but we have been told the home secretary is in dover. that's absolutely right. i am just outside a migrant holding centre that was attacked last sunday here in dover. this will be one of the places where the home secretary will come to see for herself exactly how the uk is defending itself on the front line against migrants. in the very real sense, this was the knock—on effect that led to manston taking on so many migrants at the weekend, and that's why this week she has found herself under increased pressure.- she has found herself under increased pressure. she has found herself under increased ressure. ~ , ., _ increased pressure. when you say the uk is defending _ increased pressure. when you say the uk is defending itself, _ increased pressure. when you say the uk is defending itself, obviously i uk is defending itself, obviously the language of invasion has been strongly criticised, including by the albanian prime minister and there has been a lot of concern about the plight of all the migrants who are held in very overcrowded

conditions. who are held in very overcrowded conditions-— who are held in very overcrowded conditions. ., �*, ., , , conditions. that's absolutely right. lan . ua . e conditions. that's absolutely right. language has _ conditions. that's absolutely right. language has been _ conditions. that's absolutely right. language has been something i i conditions. that's absolutely right. i language has been something i have spoken to mps about on the ground and when it comes to the rhetoric, that's exactly what people are concerned about. yesterday, 1a council leaders across kent sent a letter saying the county was at breaking point, in their words, because of what has been happening here in the county and that is why the home secretary is making the visit today, because she wants to reassure people that not only does she understand but she is across the brief and understands what kent is going through. d0 brief and understands what kent is going through-— brief and understands what kent is going through. do we know exactly what she is — going through. do we know exactly what she is doing _ going through. do we know exactly what she is doing at _ going through. do we know exactly what she is doing at the _ going through. do we know exactly what she is doing at the moment, l going through. do we know exactly i what she is doing at the moment, who she is seeing and what response she is getting? she she is seeing and what response she is caettin ? ,, , she is seeing and what response she is cuettin? ,, , ., she is seeing and what response she is caettin ? ,, , ., ., is getting? she will visit a migrant centre in dover. _ is getting? she will visit a migrant centre in dover. in _ is getting? she will visit a migrant centre in dover. in terms - is getting? she will visit a migrant centre in dover. in terms of- is getting? she will visit a migrant centre in dover. in terms of the i centre in dover. in terms of the response she will receive, it will be explained to her what happens to migrants when they arrive and she will be talked through the situation on how they are processed and what happens to migrants. that's what's happening currently but from where she goes next, it is not understood whether she goes to manston. will she goes next, it is not understood whether she goes to manston. will be aet ictures whether she goes to manston. will be get pictures from _ whether she goes to manston. will be get pictures from the _ whether she goes to manston. will be

get pictures from the visit _ whether she goes to manston. will be get pictures from the visit question i get pictures from the visit question you'll know press has been allowed on part of the visit. i spoke to the home office and we asked iii one on part of the visit. i spoke to the home office and we asked if we could be art of home office and we asked if we could be part of the — home office and we asked if we could be part of the visit _ home office and we asked if we could be part of the visit to _ home office and we asked if we could be part of the visit to watch _ home office and we asked if we could be part of the visit to watch and i be part of the visit to watch and see what she is seeing and i got told that absolutely no press is allowed so i'm stood waiting to get allowed so i'm stood waiting to get a word with her when she departs. in terms the local reaction are people living around the area there, what are people saying and what are their concerns? is it a mixed set of views? i concerns? is it a mixed set of views? , ., , . �* views? i 'ust left a residence' meetin: views? ijust left a residence' meeting here _ views? ijust left a residence' meeting here where - views? ijust left a residence' meeting here where they i views? ijust left a residence' meeting here where they are | views? ijust left a residence' i meeting here where they are very angry because they say they are not understood or listened to and their voices have not been heard for a long time. they are fed up with their area being associated with the migrant problem and effectively not getting the services they feel they need because they believe there is a real problem with services here. in the letter yesterday i mentioned from 1a council leaders, they describe schools where children in years seven and nine in canterbury and ashford can't get into places at the minute. they say there is a real

problem with services at the moment and that's why tensions are running high in certain parts of kent. your view on the _ high in certain parts of kent. your view on the home _ high in certain parts of kent. your view on the home secretary, do they support her tough language and standpoint?— support her tough language and standoint? , ., standpoint? they want something done. standpoint? they want something done- when _ standpoint? they want something done- when i _ standpoint? they want something done. when i speak _ standpoint? they want something done. when i speak to _ standpoint? they want something done. when i speak to residents i done. when i speak to residents here, they say they want action done and they want their area to be effectively looked after rather than forgotten is what they say. they support the home secretary tough action but they want action, and thatis action but they want action, and that is what they say. the action but they want action, and that is what they say.— that is what they say. the bbc olitical that is what they say. the bbc political reporter _ that is what they say. the bbc political reporter for _ that is what they say. the bbc political reporter for kent, i that is what they say. the bbc i political reporter for kent, thank you very much indeed, waiting in kent to see whether the home secretary will speak to journalists. she is thought to be visiting the manston immigration processing centre where three and a half thousand people have been detained for weeks in that site. with only 1600 people supposed to be there. a lot of criticism about the home secretary's wider handling of the

asylum seeker and refugee crisis thatis asylum seeker and refugee crisis that is currently causing huge mayhem and problems for lots of individuals. as we have been hearing, very desperate human stories. what's more coming up. this is bbc news. hello again. the torrential rain that we had overnight and also this morning has led to some issues with localised flooding, and also large puddles on the roads and pavements. that rain will very slowly clear south—east areas as we go through the rest of the day. it's courtesy of this weather front here. and then behind it, sunshine and showers, but we've got another area of low pressure coming our way which will enhance the showers across wales and south—west england later in the day. you can see the slow progress into east anglia and kent this rain is making. it will linger for much of the afternoon for most. and behind it we have this array of bright—spelled sunshine and showers, but the showers turning heavier, potentially thundery across wales and the south—west. and through the afternoon, here, too, the strength of the wind gusts will increase.

but for most of us today, the winds are going to be lighter than they were yesterday. temperatures ranging from ten in lerwick and aberdeen to 13 in london and cardiff, with the top temperature of 1a in plymouth and st helier. as we head through the evening, eventually the back edge of that rain does clear. the showers in wales and south—west england pushing into southern england. it will be windy for a time too across the english channel. and then behind all of that, the skies clear. but we do have another weather front coming in across the northwest, introducing some showers. but underneath those clear skies it will be a colder night, especially in central eastern areas, where we could well see a touch of frost. tomorrow, the system producing the showers moves away. this ridge of high pressure builds in and settle things down. the showers in the morning will clear leaving most of us with a dry day, some sunshine, and then the showers in the north—west are sinking a bit further south through the day. more coming in on the breeze across the north and the west but the showers will be hit and miss. temperatures, ten to about 1a degrees, so very similar to today. as we head into the weekend,

low pressure takes charge once again and the weather becomes more changeable with wet and windy conditions affecting us. here comes this low pressure from the atlantic, with its various fronts, producing this rain as it pushes from the west to the east. and then behind it we see a return to those blustery showers. so on saturday we'll start off drier in the east but the rain in the west will move across with showers behind. and that rain clearing on sunday leaving us with blustery showers.

this is bbc news. the headlines at 11... the bank of england is expected to raise interest rates to their highest level for 1a years in a bid to control soaring inflation. as a retired person, if investments go up, that's good, isn't it? for a lot of other things, it's going to be really problematic. the home secretary is in dover as she battles to get a grip on the chaos in the asylum system. the uk's approach to controlling migration faces strong criticism from abroad, with an intervention from the albanian prime minister. it is not about albanians, or aliens, or gangsters, but it is about failed policies on borders and on crime. here in the uk, the second report

into the manchester arena bombing in 2017 is due out later, and is likely to be highly critical of the response of the emergency services. a un report says one third of the glaciers located in world heritage sites will disappear by 2050 because of climate change. interest rates are expected to rise sharply today as the bank of england attempts to tackle soaring prices. the last interest rate announcement was six weeks ago — the day before the mini—budget, with a different prime minister and a different chancellor. today, the bank is expected to increase its base rate by three quarters of a percentage point from 2.25% to 3%.

that would be its eighth consecutive increase since december, pushing the rate to its highest level for 1a years. it would also mark the biggest single increase since 1989, and could have a big impact on the cost of living and people's finances. 0ur correspondent navtej johal has this report. 0mar is a veterinary surgeon based in derby. he came to the uk four years ago and had planned to buy a home and settle here long term. with interest rates here expected to rise further today, which is likely to make mortgages more expensive, 0mar says he's now considering whether he should even stay in the uk. have you lost trust in the uk? i trust my colleagues, i trust my friends, i trust a lot of people in the uk and it shook my trust in the system. and you may move, you may leave the country. the bank of england sets interest rates for the uk. at the moment they are 2.25%

but are expected to increase later today, possibly up to 3%, in an attempt to deal with rising inflation, which is the rate at which prices are going up. this will affect savers and borrowers, including people with existing mortgages and first—time buyers. becky was hoping to buy her first house in derby with her partner. we were working it out and thinking, yeah, we can do this. we can do this with the rates now. we're a lot more hesitant. you'rejust banging your head up against a brick wall, like, where do i go from here? what? what's the answer? what's the solution? and right now, i genuinely don't know the answer to that question. jay runs a music venue in the city. he's a homeowner who's worried about his repayments jumping massively in a few months' time. it's going to increase by about a%. at the moment, i'm looking at around about £150 a month increase on my monthly payment. the basic things that people need is a roof over the head to be able

to keep warm and to be able to eat. and it feels like all three elements there are being attacked by what's going on in the economy. well, despite the recent rises in interest rates, people are still getting or renewing their mortgage here in derby and across the country. but perhaps even more elusive than a decent mortgage deal at the moment is some level of certainty about what comes next. take your 25—year mortgage. michelle has worked in the mortgage industry for more than 20 years. she says she's never seen anything like the current situation. i want to see some i stability in the market. i'd love to see them kind of say, i right, well, we've put it up 1%, i but that's it. you know, for six months. for eight months, i you know, for a year, you know, let'sjust give people a bit of stability. so they know where they are. in the meantime, there will be plenty watching what the bank of england decides to do later today and bracing themselves for what the next few months may hold.

0ur economics correspondent andy verity is here. how sure can we be that it will be three quarters of a percentage point? three quarters of a percentage oint? ., . ., , three quarters of a percentage oint? ., , , point? you can never be entirely certain about — point? you can never be entirely certain about these _ point? you can never be entirely certain about these things, i point? you can never be entirely certain about these things, that l point? you can never be entirely. certain about these things, that is what the market expectations are but we have seen some signs in the markets this morning that there's some doubt as to whether it will be three quarters or a bit less, half a percentage point, you have seen a sale uk company shares, down 1%, and also you have seen a little bit of a dip in the pound, more than a percentage point, quite chunky. but that may be because the dollar's strengthening because of what their central bank has been saying about where their interest rates will go. we are also down against the euro which does suggest the markets are nervous. not so much about the path of interest rates but what the bank of interest rates but what the bank of england might say about how bad the economic picture looks. iliiui’e’iiii the economic picture looks. we'll

aet the economic picture looks. we'll net the the economic picture looks. we'll get the full _ the economic picture looks. we'll get the full explanation _ the economic picture looks. we'll get the full explanation with the news conference after the announcement at 12:30pm. meantime, what otherfactors that what other factors that decision—makers weigh what otherfactors that decision—makers weigh up when deciding what to do? thea;r decision-makers weigh up when deciding what to do?— decision-makers weigh up when deciding what to do? they are most concerned about _ deciding what to do? they are most concerned about what _ deciding what to do? they are most concerned about what will _ deciding what to do? they are most concerned about what will happen l deciding what to do? they are most| concerned about what will happen to inflation over the next two or three years, no one expects that by raising interest rates now it will immediately affect inflation, they are trying to forestall what will happen over the medium—term. by raising interest rates now, they are trying to prevent inflation, until now largely a global phenomenon, becoming embedded in the domestic economy, and that would happen by people's expectations of inflation changing, demanding higherwage changing, demanding higher wage rises, changing, demanding higherwage rises, sometimes employers can only pay higher rates by raising prices. that is the big fear, we are nowhere near that at the moment, the main inflation we have is what they call cost push inflation, rather than led by demand. demand is when you have lots of people spending money, households and businesses, too much

money, chasing too few goods, pushing up prices. that is what the bank is trying to forestall. until now, what's pushing up inflation is the price of energy, globalfactors. what happens? a lot has happened since the last decision by the bank of england, six weeks ago. it was a mini budget which was not so many, scratc, a different prime minister a different chancellor. interest rates on mortgages went up dramatically at that time, anyone who faced the prospect of renewing will be well aware. but there are suggestions now that that may have been overcoat somewhere stopped immediately after the mini maxi budget that they had to the mini maxi budget that they had t. , ., ., the mini maxi budget that they had to reverse, after that the markets, the bond markets _ to reverse, after that the markets, the bond markets thought - to reverse, after that the markets, the bond markets thought that i to reverse, after that the markets, the bond markets thought that the i the bond markets thought that the bank of england would have to work harder to bring in inflation under control because the government's

measures would push inflation up rather than bring it down. if you use fiscal policy to put more money into the economy through tax cuts, that would tend to mean that the bank of england has to do more to get back to the 2% target, that is why they are expecting interest rates to peak next summer by more than 6%. now it has changed, since the mini budget and the exit from downing street and the reversal most of those measures, you the expectation they will peak at four and three quarters, that is still a big rise, we are now at 2.75, to go further will be crippling if you're coming off a five year fixed mortgage and having to tackle a much higher interest rate.— joining us now is danni hewson, who is a financial analyst from aj bell. what are you expecting? we are exectin: what are you expecting? we are expecting to see _ what are you expecting? we are expecting to see 0.75 _ what are you expecting? we are expecting to see 0.75 high, i what are you expecting? we are expecting to see 0.75 high, the| expecting to see 0.75 high, the probability which seems to have been taken _ probability which seems to have been taken up _ probability which seems to have been taken up until andy says today there

is maybe _ taken up until andy says today there is maybe a _ taken up until andy says today there is maybe a pause, wondering whether the bank— is maybe a pause, wondering whether the bank of— is maybe a pause, wondering whether the bank of england will go that far. the bank of england will go that fan it _ the bank of england will go that fan it has — the bank of england will go that far. it has been unreliable, there was the — far. it has been unreliable, there was the dictation in september that it would _ was the dictation in september that it would put rates up by the same amount— it would put rates up by the same amount as — it would put rates up by the same amount as the federal reserve in the us by— amount as the federal reserve in the us by 0.75%, it amount as the federal reserve in the us by 0.75%, it only did so by 0.5%, we could— us by 0.75%, it only did so by 0.5%, we could see — us by 0.75%, it only did so by 0.5%, we could see rates top out at 2.75% but the _ we could see rates top out at 2.75% but the expectation at the moment is we will— but the expectation at the moment is we will see _ but the expectation at the moment is we will see 3% because otherwise term _ we will see 3% because otherwise term of— we will see 3% because otherwise term of unreliable boyfriend may be levelled _ term of unreliable boyfriend may be levelled at the bank of england, markets — levelled at the bank of england, markets do not like unpredictability. in markets do not like unpredictability. markets do not like unredictabili . , ., unpredictability. in terms of where thins no, unpredictability. in terms of where things go. and _ unpredictability. in terms of where things go, and ages _ unpredictability. in terms of where things go, and ages said _ unpredictability. in terms of where things go, and ages said the i things go, and ages said the expectation had been that interest rates would go up to 6% command the expectation is only 2a.75%. a lot higher than where things are now but that has an impact on the decisions that has an impact on the decisions that were being taken around what

mortgages were being offered. what would you expect to happen in the knock—on of these decisions? it is knock-on of these decisions? it is incredibl knock—on of these decisions? it is incredibly difficult for people who are looking at the moment to remortgage, coming off those incredibly low rates, some people to years _ incredibly low rates, some people to years ago— incredibly low rates, some people to years ago when getting mortgage rates _ years ago when getting mortgage rates of— years ago when getting mortgage rates of around 1%, the norm was around _ rates of around 1%, the norm was around 2%~ — rates of around 1%, the norm was around 2%. if you are now locate getting _ around 2%. if you are now locate getting a — around 2%. if you are now locate getting a fixed rate, it is more like 6%, — getting a fixed rate, it is more like 6%, if— getting a fixed rate, it is more like 6%, if you have £250,000 worth of borrowing, that is almost an extra _ of borrowing, that is almost an extra £10,000 a year, on top of all the other— extra £10,000 a year, on top of all the other price hikes people are experiencing, that is incredibly tough — experiencing, that is incredibly tough. whatever we see today, it is unlikely— tough. whatever we see today, it is unlikely to — tough. whatever we see today, it is unlikely to make much of a change to those _ unlikely to make much of a change to those fixed _ unlikely to make much of a change to those fixed rates because a lot of the increases have been baked in, we have seen— the increases have been baked in, we have seen fixed rates coming down a tiny bit. _ have seen fixed rates coming down a tiny bit. but— have seen fixed rates coming down a tiny bit, but not much to make a difference — tiny bit, but not much to make a difference to people looking to remortgage. what today will impact

as the _ remortgage. what today will impact as the iti— remortgage. what today will impact as the 1.6 million people or so who are on— as the 1.6 million people or so who are on track— as the 1.6 million people or so who are on track with mortgages or on standard — are on track with mortgages or on standard variable rate who will see an automatic increase in the amount they pay~ _ an automatic increase in the amount they pay. it — an automatic increase in the amount they pay. it will also impact people with credit — they pay. it will also impact people with credit cards or who rent because _ with credit cards or who rent because a _ with credit cards or who rent because a lot of landlords also have to pay— because a lot of landlords also have to pay mortgages and will look to pass those costs on. the people who will benefit _ pass those costs on. the people who will benefit our savers, that is the key thing. — will benefit our savers, that is the key thing, the bank of england wants people _ key thing, the bank of england wants people to _ key thing, the bank of england wants people to save more of their cash because _ people to save more of their cash because if— people to save more of their cash because if they do so, they are spending — because if they do so, they are spending less and hopefully that will bring down the inflation right. in will bring down the inflation right. in terms— will bring down the inflation right. in terms of— will bring down the inflation right. in terms of what happens with spending in the economy at a time already of low growth, high inflation, cost of living and areas you are talking about where people are going to be hit, what are the pressures?—

pressures? people are finding it incredibly difficult _ pressures? people are finding it incredibly difficult just _ pressures? people are finding it incredibly difficult just to - incredibly difficult just to mckenzie meat. they are feeling they cannot— mckenzie meat. they are feeling they cannot spend any less because they 'ust cannot spend any less because they just will_ cannot spend any less because they just will not be able to get the very— just will not be able to get the very basic to live on —— make ends meet _ very basic to live on —— make ends meet you — very basic to live on —— make ends meet. you need to keep a roof over your head. — meet. you need to keep a roof over your head, keep the lights on and your head, keep the lights on and you want— your head, keep the lights on and you want to stay warm. huge pressures— you want to stay warm. huge pressures for people, and we are in a situation — pressures for people, and we are in a situation where a lot of the price ta-s a situation where a lot of the price tags are _ a situation where a lot of the price tags are coming because of global issues, _ tags are coming because of global issues, they are not because of us being _ issues, they are not because of us being happy to pay more, but because goods— being happy to pay more, but because goods are _ being happy to pay more, but because goods are costing more, energy is costing _ goods are costing more, energy is costing more, production is costing more, _ costing more, production is costing more. that— costing more, production is costing more, that is something which is going _ more, that is something which is going to — more, that is something which is going to take a long time to come through— going to take a long time to come through the economy. so the people it is going _ through the economy. so the people it is going to be difficult, they will want _ it is going to be difficult, they will want to spend less, they will probably— will want to spend less, they will probably find they have to pay pay the same — probably find they have to pay pay the same amount to buy less. we will be caettin the same amount to buy less. we will be getting that _

the same amount to buy less. we will be getting that decision _ the same amount to buy less. we will be getting that decision by _ the same amount to buy less. we will be getting that decision by the - the same amount to buy less. we will be getting that decision by the bank. be getting that decision by the bank of england at midday. suella braverman is on a visit today in kent, i'vejust heard braverman is on a visit today in kent, i've just heard she braverman is on a visit today in kent, i'vejust heard she had just left the manston. .. kent, i'vejust heard she had just left the manston... 0h, she was at the western jet foil site, she has basically been there, talking about what is going on in terms of migrants and what is happening to them, huge pressure on the home secretary over the numbers, a0,000 migrants have come to this country across the channel in small boats so far this year. there is a backlog in terms of processing of asylum cases gone up dramatically where a number of years ago nine in ten people would have had a decision within six months on their asylum claim, now there are 102,000 outstanding asylum claims just a% of people who arrived in this country last year on small boats across the channel have had

their claims processed. it means there are large numbers of asylum seekers currently living in home office funded accommodation, waiting 0ffice funded accommodation, waiting the outcome of their claims, and one place in particular, a processing centre in kent, is under great scrutiny because there are a000 people currently being housed there, and the actual capacity of it is 1600 people, so there are efforts under way to send people from their hotels around the country, and the home office is also facing legal action from some councils on that, where they are saying they haven't been consulted around decisions taken that are affecting their areas. let's talk to michael. what has been happening? igate let's talk to michael. what has been ha eninu? ., let's talk to michael. what has been hauenina? ., , , let's talk to michael. what has been hauenina? . , , ,, ., happening? we have 'ust seen suella braverman leave i happening? we have just seen suella braverman leave those _ happening? we have just seen suella braverman leave those gates, - happening? we have just seen suella braverman leave those gates, this i braverman leave those gates, this

is... inaudible. she is under increased pressure get a handle on the situation in dover and in manston, she wasjust inside looking at conditions and at what more the government can do to support those coming into the uk through that very centre we are struggling to hear but i want to ask, has she been welcomed, how is she being received? it ask, has she been welcomed, how is she being received?— she being received? it was a quiet visit, she being received? it was a quiet visit. press _ she being received? it was a quiet visit, press were _ she being received? it was a quiet visit, press were not _ she being received? it was a quiet visit, press were not allowed i she being received? it was a quiet visit, press were not allowed in, l she being received? it was a quiet. visit, press were not allowed in, we couldn't go in, visit, press were not allowed in, we couldn't go in.— couldn't go in, couldn't see the reception. _ couldn't go in, couldn't see the reception. we _ couldn't go in, couldn't see the reception, we were _ couldn't go in, couldn't see the reception, we were kept i couldn't go in, couldn't see the reception, we were kept at i reception, we were kept at arm's—length, it has been quiet for the visit, we will have to wait and see. thank you. 0ur political correspondent ben wright is at westminster —

mounting pressure? unusually, there isn't any media access for this visit, we expect her to go to the manston facility, she is expected in dover, as we have heard, but it looks like there will be limited if not now chance to ask any question during the course of her visit, which is pretty unusual. she did say earlier this week she intended to go to manston to see for herself what is going on, we know the figures, far more than the facilities capable or decide to hold, so she will be assessing the situation and trying to work out how to un—gum the system. suella braverman reluctant to talk today but somebody who is is the albanian prime minister edi rama, he has been responding to a lot of the focus going on here on the number of albanians coming over in small boats, crossing the channel over the

course of this year, numbers have been rising dramatically, between september, may to september, albanian nationals alone accounted for almost a0% of people making the crossing in small boats. suella braverman said there is a real problem with people trying to exploit the modern slavery laws, conversations about criminal gangs, she says are operating, but the albanian prime minister was on newsnight, taking exception to some of the rhetoric. it is about failed policies, not about— it is about failed policies, not about albanians or aliens or gangsters, but it is about failed policies — gangsters, but it is about failed policies on borders and on crime. what is likely to happen, if they're likely to be a change in policy by the government, a change in

strategy, is that what she's looking at? ., , ., , strategy, is that what she's looking at? ,, at? there has to be because ministers — at? there has to be because ministers accepted - at? there has to be because ministers accepted that i at? there has to be because ministers accepted that the | ministers accepted that the immigration and asylum system is not working, it has broken in the words of suella braverman earlier in the week. rishi sunak said this was an escalating problem yesterday during prime minister is questions. there are problems on a number of fronts, they are all interlinked, the question of capacity at that facility, which is symptomatic of a wider problem in terms of finding places for migrants arriving on those boats to be housed. they are only meant to be there temporarily, 2a hours or so, but there is a problem at the moment and finding alternative accommodation elsewhere in the country. that needs to be sorted out. there is the ongoing and worsening situation in terms of people arriving on those small boats from the french coast. clearly there needs to be some sort of new arrangement with france to deter people stop them getting on those boats in first place. there is a problem around the amount of time it

is taking to process asylum applications, at the moment it is taking 1a months for someone's application to be looked at and judged. that is longer than many other european countries. the government had a plan for trying to put people on planes and sent into rwanda, nobody has got money playing so far, that policy is currently being considered in the courts. 0n being considered in the courts. on several fronts there problems, demands and across—the—board for some sort of fresh solution to deal with this. ., ~ some sort of fresh solution to deal with this. ., ,, , ., a long—awaited report will be released later into the response of the emergency services to the bomb attack at the manchester arena five years ago. 22 people died in the attack, as people left an ariana grade concert at the venue. the report is expected to be very critical of the police, ambulance, and fire services. one of the firefighters has told the bbc that the response had been �*embarassing and shameful�*. 0ur correspondentjudith moritz has been talking to a man who tried repeatedly to save the life

of a 28—year—old victim whose family say he was �*badly let down' by the emergency services. siren wails. in the aftermath of the explosion at manchester arena, sirens screeched towards the scene. but the police were in disarray, paramedics mostly stayed out of the blast area, and the fire service didn't respond at all for more than two hours. firefighters were held back by their commanders at a station three miles away. we just waited and waited for instruction. this firefighter is speaking anonymously, for fear of losing his job. so, as time went on it was more embarrassing, and more and more frustrating, and then there's the feeling of guilt... "well, maybe if i did something." even so small, you know, you can hold your head up high, but to stand there and do nothing all that time, it was embarrassing, shameful. failings by all of the emergency services meant the public had to step in, people like ron blake,

himself injured, who could see that the man next to him was badly hurt. what did you notice about him? just the blood that were there — like, a trail. so ijust went to see how he were. but he was talking. told me his name and all that. asked him where he were from. so, he communicated. and less than a minute of that explosion, you rang 999, didn't you? yeah. police, emergency, i hello, can you hear me? yeah, there's been an explosion at manchester arena. is anybody injured? yes, loads. - there's been an explosion? i explosion, yeah, big explosion. i'm with a man now that's really injured. john atkinson was the man ron was trying to help. his legs were bleeding heavily. 0n the way down, i remembered my wife had a belt on, so i asked her to give me her belt. ron tied the belt tightly around

john's leg to slow the bleeding. we know you did that for the best part of an hour. yeah. you thought help would be soon. it just seemed to last for ever. seemed to go on and on and on, and nobody were coming, so ijust kept trying to talk tojohn. he kept saying, "i'm not going to... "i'm not going to die?" i kept saying, "no, you're not." "you're not." and they got a barrier, a metal barrier, and then put him on that, went round to the lift, he wouldn't fit in the lift, so i had to go back and go down the stairs. not one paramedic attended tojohn inside the arena. he was carried out on a makeshift stretcher to a casualty area outside. ron left him after an hour thinking he would be ok now there were medics with him. when did you find out that john had passed away? that next day, in the hospital. it were on the news. i went outside, i went

through some doors and... just broke down. the inquiry has heard experts saying thatjohn had a high chance of survival. yeah. big mistakes were made that night. you're sure of that. yeah. the ambulance service have apologised, fire service, the police, does that help, does it mean anything, hearing those apologies? no. john's family have thanked you, haven't they? they've said how grateful they are. yeah. i hope i did what i could. you did so much, didn't you? other people have said that i did. but ijust looked at it as, i did what anybody else would have done. well, volume two of the manchester arena inquiry gets published this afternoon at 2.30. parliament's committee on standards has recommended that the conservative mp, andrew bridgen, be suspended from the commons for five days

for breaching its code of conduct. officials say he displayed a "cavalier attitude" to the rules on lobbying and made an "unacceptable attack" upon the integrity of the standards commissioner. mr bridgen has said he's extremely disappointed but will accept the suspension. ukraine's nuclear energy company says the zaporizhzia nuclear power plant has been disconnected from the power grid, due to russian military activity in the area. the company said the power plant had just 15 days of fuel left to run the generators and would be switching part of the plant to a cold state to preserve energy supplies. 0ur correspondent catherine byaru hanga is following developments from kyiv. what we're hearing from ukraine official says there had been shelling overnight. that hit the last remaining high power voltage lines connecting this power plant to ukraine's national power grid. since fighting began, the six main reactors at the nuclear power plant have had to be shut down.

that means they are not generating electricity for ukraine. even though it is not generating electricity, the plant needs power. it needs power to cool remaining fuel, to make sure there is not a meltdown. you can imagine how much of a precarious situation that is. now it is operating on back—up diesel generators that only have fuel for 15 days. that leads to concern. this is not the first time the power plant has been knocked off the power grid. it has happened numerous times during the conflict. it has been brought back online, so that is a relief. it also leads to growing concerns a lot of people have about the safety of europe's biggest nuclear power plant. with nearly all of the votes counted in israel's fifth election in four years, the former prime minister, benjamin netanyahu, is set to return to power. his bloc, which relies heavily on a far—right party, is predicted to take 65 of the 120 seats. 0ur middle east correspondent,

tom bateman, says coalition talks are expected to take place next week. what we get tonight is what is likely to happen at least, the finish of the bout count and then we will have a confirmed that engine netanyahu is in a position comfortably to lead a religious and right—wing majority coalition here in israel's parliament. part of that coalition block will be an anti—arab and openly racist far—right party, which saw a huge surge in support during the election campaign. what we expect to happen in the next few daysis we expect to happen in the next few days is discussion between him and other party leaders before they have official talks are putting together a coalition, that will probably happen later next week. at the same time you will have horse trading between those groups about policies

they want to put in place, about the budgets they will get, and we could therefore see some of the figures within that far right alliance being given senior ministerial positions on israel. all of that has been leading to a lot of concern, not least internationally, the us saying last night that they expect israeli government officials, they said all officials, to share values of an open and democratic society and respect problems for minorities. —— respect problems for minorities. —— respect and tolerance. well, a united nations report says that a third of the glaciers located in world heritage sites will vanish by 2050 because of global warming. researchers used existing satellite data to track the shrinking of nearly 19,000 glaciers. they concluded that even if global temperature increases were kept below 1.5 degrees, many of them would still be gone in three decades time. unesco's tales carvalho resende is the report author.

the last remaining glaciers in africa and kilimanjaro, the mountains, but also some other iconic glaciers, such as the dolomites in italy, as well as yosemite park in yellowstone in the us. by yosemite park in yellowstone in the us. by 2100, yosemite park in yellowstone in the us. by 2100, around half of the glaciers and world heritage site could disappear in a business as usual scenario. could disappear in a business as usualscenario. every could disappear in a business as usual scenario. every year world heritage glaciers losing 58 billion tonnes of ice, this represents the water consumed in france and spain combined. and also this represents around 5% of global sea—level rise. i would say that this is particularly worrying and alarming

because the risk that are implied by this are many fold. this could lead to coastal erosion but also a high risk of cyclones, storms and tsunamis. now it's time for a look at the weather. hello again. the torrential rain we've had has led to some issues with localised flooding. a lot of standing water on the roads and pavements. that rain is still with us and will be very slow to clear from the south—east. behind it will be some showers. for the rest of the uk, we are looking at a largely dry day. but there will be showers developing through the day, especially so across wales and the south—west of england, where the wind will pick up through the course of the afternoon and into the evening, as those showers move towards the english channel and southern england. behind it some clear skies. a line of showers coming into the north—west. under those clear skies, it's going to be cold, particularly across central and eastern parts of scotland and northern england. as we head through tomorrow, we say goodbye to the showers in the south.

a ridge of high pressure develops across us, which means the weather will settle down. there will be a lot of dry weather around. there will be some showers, those coming into the north—west spreading further south as we go through the course of the day. temperatures 10 to 1a. hello. this is bbc news.

the headlines... the bank of england is expected to raise interest rates to their highest level for 1a years, in a bid to control soaring inflation. it is already a struggle for a first home buyers and those bases in bristol are incredibly expensive and when you add the interest rate, it does not seem worth it —— house prices in bristol. the home secretary arrived at the manston migrant processing centre as she battles to get a grip amidst chaos in the asylum system. the uk's approach to controlling migration faces strong criticism from abroad, with an intervention from the albanian prime minister. it is not about albanians or others or gangsters, it is about field policies on borders and crane —— failed policies on borders and

crime. here in the uk the second report into the manchester arena bombing in 2017 is due out later, and is likely to be highly critical of the response of the emergency services. a un report says one third of the glaciers located in world heritage sites will disappear by 2050 because of climate change. a full sport round—up, from the bbc sport centre. we start with the t20 world cup and a pivotal match betweenb pakistan and south africa in sydney — with pakistan needing a win to avoid elimination from the group stages. south africa will reach the semi—finals with a win. pakistan were struggling on 95 for 5 before a stunning stand from shadab khan who hit 82 from 35 balls saw them reach 185 for 9 at the end of their innings. south africa are 69 for a, but rain has affected play. the covers are on with south africa needing 117 runs to win from the remaining 11 overs. england, meanwhile, know that a win would practically

guarantee their progress from group one — because their net run—rate is significantly better than australia's. it could come down to a three—way tussle between england, australia and new zealand. here's bowler chris woakes. the t20 is a fickle game, you need to make sure you start well and get into games because otherwise momentum can build and teams can get away from you, so it's really important we focus on the theme in front of us on saturday, sri lanka, and they will be desperate to win as well, so we have to come in and put in a performance like we did against new zealand and we will obviously try to do that. now, to the latest on the injury—front ahead of the world cup, and another blow for gareth southgate's defensive options for england — ben chilwell is now a doubt after suffering a hamstring injury in chelsea's champions league win last night. the full—back pulled up in stoppage time during their win over dinamo zagreb, clutching

the back of his leg. he was unable to continue and was pictured leaving stamford bridge on crutches. hejoins kyle walker and reece james in being doubts for the tournament which begins in 17 days' time. it isa it is a blow for us. 0therwise, positive evening, i think. it is a blow to see him pull up like that, not a great site, so fingers crossed that when we get it scanned it is not as bad, like you say, it can be not as bad, like you say, it can be not as bad, like you say, it can be not as severe, but we have to have fingers crossed at the moment, but clearly we are disappointed. worrying news too for south korea as the tottenham striker son heung—min faces a race to be fit for the world cup as well. he'll need surgery to stabilise a fracture around his left eye. son suffered the injury during spurs champions league win at marseille on tuesday night. tottenham haven't put a timescale on how long he'll be out for.

a new women's nations league will launch next autumn, as uefa has announced an overhaul to the international game in europe. teams will be split into three tiers — linking to how teams qualify for the women's euros. 0n current standings, england and wales would be in the top tier, with scotland and northern ireland in tier 2. now, how about this for snatching victory from the jaws of defeat? a medal looked out of reach for great britain at the world gymnastics championships untiljake jarman held his nerve, to secure a team bronze for his team with some brilliant scores. i actually don't feel very well! that is the definition of pure grit. we didn't give up. we had a nightmare on pommel and we just kept coming back and it was just... it was no one person that did it. it was just teamwork, and that's what we've lived on for god knows how long. i just love this team, i love our supporters, and that is all i've got to say.

this medal, it's not just ours, it's everyone's. england failed to find any consolation in their three test netball series against australia as they lost their final match by 57 points to 53. australia showed just why they're the world's topped ranked team by winning the series last sunday. despite that they didn't ease off the gas for the final encounter in brisbane. the diamonds opened the scoring and lead for the whole match. that's all the sport for now. a new report by the charity, british heart foundation, warns that disruption to nhs services has been causing a rise in heart disease deaths since the start of the pandemic. the report says ambulance delays, surgery waiting times and inaccessible care can be linked to 30,000 excess cardiac deaths in england. joining us now to talk about the british heart foundations latest report, is their ceo,

dr charmaine griffiths. thank you forjoining us. tello is a bit more about what is going on. clearly we are experiencing unprecedented pressures on heart treatment and care and their latest analysis in this tipping point report has really shown the scale of that. it is devastating to think that. it is devastating to think that since the start of the pandemic just the sheer scale of destruction on treatment and care has taken around 230 extra lives from heart disease every week. and we are obviously worried about emergency care, but also worried about the scale of the backlog of care and treatment needed to. we are estimating at the moment today there are around 350,000 people across the uk waiting desperately for treatment and care, and an increasing risk of course of heart damage, disability, and sadly even death during that period. that is why we are calling on the government, the new government as it forms a cell, to

prioritise cardiovascular health and set out a new heart strategy to make sure everyone who needs care and treatment, the 7.6 million people living with heart and circulatory diseases across the uk today, that these people get what they need. when you talk about those deaths, 230 extra deaths per week, and 350,000 people currently waiting for urgent treatment and potentially facing the threat, the risk of dying before they get that treatment, that is all avoidable, is it? igate before they get that treatment, that is all avoidable, is it?— is all avoidable, is it? we know that those _ is all avoidable, is it? we know that those people _ is all avoidable, is it? we know that those people need, i is all avoidable, is it? we know that those people need, it i is all avoidable, is it? we know that those people need, it is i that those people need, it is avoidable with the right resource and investment and that's why we're calling on the heart strategy that really make sure we have got the support in place and resources in place to give those people what we know they need. it is a question of getting that to them and also to make sure we are stopping people from getting ill in the first place. we know there's been a significant drop in the number of people who

have had condition such as high blood pressure, people are dangerously high risk of a heart attack or stroke, but are not getting the medication and treatment they need, so we simply have not been detecting them through regular health checks and monitoring during the last couple of years. we are calling on government to set up a heart strategy that not only tackles the backlog, but also looks at making sure we prevent people from becoming unwell, and also protecting that research progress we know delivers what patients need in terms of treatments, in the future. it must be absolutely horrible, difficult to come to terms with the death of someone where you know they could have had treatment that would have saved them, potentially routine treatment, they did not happen because of busy pressures, and also seem equally difficult for those in the health service that the weight of patients they cannot treat. igate of patients they cannot treat. we know we of patients they cannot treat. s know we could not be asking more from colleagues across the nhs and ambulance services. as people struggle and grapple with getting

people to help and support they need. we hear through our heart helpline and people contacting us stories of such heartbreak, people losing loved ones or experiencing the anxiety of being in that queue. that is why we really believe we are at a tipping point, and urgent action is needed to prioritise cardiovascular disease and make sure we get these people the support and care they need, and we are absolutely urging government at this point to prioritise cardiovascular health for the 7.6 million people it affects today and make sure we're getting a grip on tackling the short—term emergency issues, and also recovering the backlog of and treatment that people are clearly waiting for at the moment. but also not losing sight of the investment required in prevention to make sure people who have respected and looked after well, to stop them becoming seriously on well in the first place. seriously on well in the first lace. , , ., seriously on well in the first lace, , y., , .,~' place. let me bring you breaking news we're _ place. let me bring you breaking news we're getting _ place. let me bring you breaking

news we're getting from - place. let me bring you breaking i news we're getting from pakistan, we are hearing shots have been fired near the convoy of the former prime minister of pakistan imran khan, currently leading a protest matched to slam a bad —— protest march, through punjab to the capital of islamabad, and the goal of that protest marches to show enough support to try to force early elections and see off the current government. we are hearing there have been gunshots fired near to the convoy of imran khan, no more detail on quite how near at this point, but we are of course going to stay across that and we will bring you anything more that we get as soon as we hear it. the ethiopian prime minister,

abiy ahmed, says the ceasefire agreement between the government and officials from the tigray region is a monumental step for the country — ending almost two years of civil war. the african union mediator, 0lusegun 0basanjo, says it is just the beginning of the peace process. 0ur senior africa correspondent, anne soy reports. it's a major breakthrough. ethiopia's government has called it "monumental". rebels have agreed to disarm. but there is some level of caution. this moment is not the end of the peace process, but the beginning of it. a previous ceasefire was breached in august. this footage is the first gathered by international media since then. a children's playground, bombed. the ethiopian government has always insisted that they are not targeting civilians. this granny fled some of the most recent fighting.

"i left my kids and grandkids," she says. she doesn't know if they survived. the displaced have harrowing stories to tell. translation: we saw elders being slaughtered, women i raped and kids killed. we've seen many things. we saw these things, that's why we were frightened and came here. there are many atrocities in this war. people are dying because of the blockade and famine. kids are dying due to a lack of medicine. we are losing people. the region has been cut off from the rest of the country and world for nearly two years now. the people here have been without banking, means of communication and power. aid agencies say almost everyone in northern tigray is in need of food aid. they're desperate for a return to normal life. at mek�*ele's largest internally displaced people's camp, this man struggles to grow food for his family. every harvest is a disappointment.

he's desperate to go back to his large farm. translation: we were working hard and living our lives. _ but now we have nothing to do. no—one is helping us. we've been here for a year now, and received aid only three times. the new deal brings hope that his and many other families can begin the journey to reconciliation. but its success hinges on the commitment of the warring parties. anne soy, bbc news, nairobi. president biden has said americans must unite in opposition see more details of the shooting near to the convoy of imran khan as he continues the convoy 23, we are hearing that he has been injured in the shooting incident. very little detail coming through, but it is

understood that he has sustained bullet injuries after an unknown man opened fire, and according to geo news he sustained built injuries on his leg. according to the police, the suspect who opened fire on the vehicle, the open top vehicle he was travelling in, has been arrested and several other people including the pti leader also sustained injuries. the india today is quoting another reporting those details about him being injured in the leg and saying soon after the incident, imran khan was transferred to a bullet—proof vehicle, had been travelling in an open top vehicle during the rally. those details coming through and we will keep you updated as we get any more.

the headlines on bbc news... the bank of england is expected to raise interest rates to their highest level for 1a years, in a bid to control soaring inflation. the home secretary arrived at the manston migrant processing centre as she battles to get a grip amidst chaos in the asylum system. here in the uk the second report into the manchester arena bombing in 2017 is due out later, and is likely to be highly critical of the response of the emergency services. president biden has said americans must unite in opposition to "political violence", saying democracy itself will be on the ballot paper in next week's mid—term elections. mr biden accused the former president, donald trump and his supporters of undermining democracy and fuelling anger and violence by refusing to accept the results of the 2020 presidential election. 0ur north america correspondent, peter bowes, reports from los angeles. this was a speech organised by the democratic national committee at union station in washington,

i think a deliberately chosen location, just a few blocks away from the capitol building, where last year there was that attempt by violent protesters to overturn the result of the 2020 election. but mr biden actually started his speech by talking in some detail about the attack on the husband of nancy pelosi, paul pelosi, in san francisco last week. something that has dominated the news here. the person responsible for that allegedly said, "where's nancy? where's nancy?" the same words that were used during the attack on the capitol building last year. and president biden said americans must resolve their differences at the ballot box rather than using violence. and he urged americans to choose candidates next week who will accept the election result. he said election deniers will take the country down the road to chaos. and he did also focus on the former

president, without naming him, without saying donald trump, everyone aware of who he was talking about, accusing the former president and his supporters of fuelling anger, hate and vitriol by undermining democracy. you know, american democracy is under attack because the defeated former president of the united states refuses to accept the results of the 2020 election. he refuses to accept the will of the people. the fact that he lost. he has abused his power and put the loyalty to himself before loyalty to the constitution. he's made a big lie an article of faith in the maga republican party. now, much of what president biden was talking about during this speech he has articulated before in other speeches over the last couple of years. but it seems to be significant

that he is returning to this topic just days away from polling day. he is not doing well in the opinion polls. he acknowledged during this speech that there are other issues that americans are concerned about. clearly the cost of living crisis, rising inflation, the future of abortion rights, crime in the inner cities and elsewhere. those are the issues that people are talking about. but it seems as if the president believes that there is perhaps a consensus across the country about the importance of democracy and being able to believe the result of the election. we have a special section on our website on the us mid—terms... you can find all of the latest developments, and this guide to the voting, including what's at stake, and the implications for american politics. just log on to bbc.co.uk/news — or go via the bbc app. new research suggests there's a clear link between accents, socioeconomic background

and social mobility. the education charity, sutton trust, surveyed sixth formers, university students and working professionals on the impact their accents have on education and the in workplace. 30% of university students report being mocked, criticised or singled out as a result of their accents, and 25% of professionals report the same in work. how much have attitudes to accents changed over time? in 1967, the first ever director general of the bbc shared his thoughts in a conversation with malcolm muggeridge about the "bbc accent".

the director—general from some time ago of the bbc. new research from the education charity, sutton trust suggests there's a clear link between accents, socioeconomic background and social mobility. it found that almost half of uk workers have had their accents mocked, criticised or singled out in a social setting and one in four have had their accents mocked at work. rebecca montacute, the sutton trust's senior research and policy manager explained their key findings about the impact of accent bias, earlier. we found that accent bias is quite widespread and that lots of people have experienced being mocked for their accent and this is actually more common for people from working—class backgrounds, especially later on in people's

careers, and people who are younger, people are more worried about it if they are from the north and midlands, but across society there is a real worry that people's accents are being disseminated against and they are being potentially impacted in how well they can succeed in a workplace because of it. an international study has found that a hallucinogenic drug found in magic mushrooms is helpful to patients suffering from depression. a single dose of psilocybin — combined with psychological support — significantly reduced symptoms in people who did not respond to antidepressants. experts say more research is needed — but they're encouraged by the results so far. ata at a basic level they feel better afterwards, mentally clearer, they feel they are able to engage with the things that may be leading them to become depressed, they may have some clarity and insight into why they are becoming depressed, and with that, you can make a plan about how you're going move forward. now halloween's over you might be

wondering what to do with those spare pumpkins. many people leave them out for their local wildlife to eat. sadly you could be doing more harm to the animals than good. leanne rinne has more. carefully carved and positioned outside our homes every year. come rain or shine. pumpkins are a firm halloween tradition, but after all, the trick or treating is finished. an estimated eight million pumpkins will be discarded, with many dumped in woodlands, which can damage the soil and harm wildlife in particular hedgehogs. well, i think at this time of year, hedgehogs are supposed to be putting on weight for hibernation. so they'll gorge on a pumpkin. but rather than putting on weight, they'll end up losing weight by dehydrating, having diarrhoea. and then, of course, they run the risk of not surviving hibernation, which is bad for the population. when a hedgehog like this gets admitted with symptoms like diarrhoea and dehydration,

it can take up to six weeks for them to be treated and get better before they're released back into the wild. the woodland trust owns and cares for more than 1000 areas of woodland across the uk, and every halloween they have to collect and dispose of the pumpkins left by people who think they're doing a good thing for the environment. when pumpkins are dumped into the woods and they're left on the ground, they can actually, when they break down, it affects the make up of the soil, which then has a knock on effect on fungi and plants in the woodland. we don't let it get to that stage as the woodland trust. we have site managers on site that will come along and clean up these pumpkins. but as a charity doing this, it takes time and it takes money, which could be better used for our work in restoring ancient woodland, planting new woodland. wildlife and conservation charities are now urging people

to recycle their pumpkins at home from soup to bird feeders instead of leaving them on the ground to rot and seriously harm our wildlife. lianne rennie, bbc news. in a move that could divide the nation, the confectionary company mars wrigley is to sell some of its celebrations chocolate tubs , with no bounty bars. it says its research suggests the coconut chocs are often the least popular and last to be taken. but the company says it's not yet prepared to make a final decision to banish the bounty forever. let's catch up with the weather. torrential rain we had over and this morning has led to issues with

localised flooding and also large puddles on the roads and pavements. that rain will very slowly move south eastwards through the rest of the day, courtesy of this weather front here and find sunshine and showers, another area of low pressure coming our way which will enhance the showers across wales and south—west england later in the day. you can see the slow progress to east anglia and kent, the strain is making, i will lingerfor much of the afternoon for most and behind it we have this array of bright spells, sunshine and showers, but the shower is turning heavier, potentially thundering across south wales in the south—west through the afternoon here, the strength of the wind gusts will increase. for most of us today the winds will be later than they were yesterday, temperatures ranging from ten in their wake and averaging 213 in london and cardiff, top temperature of 1a in plymouth and st helier. as we head to the evening, eventually the back edge of that rent is clear, showers and england

pushing to southern england, when the a0 time across the english channel, and behind all of that the sky is clear but we do have another weather front coming in across the north west introducing some showers. under those clear skies will be a cold night, specially in central eastern areas, could well see a touch of frost. tomorrow the system producing the showers moves away, the ridge of high pressure builds on and settle things down. showers in the morning will clear, leaving most of us with a dry day, some sunshine and then showers in the north by sinking a bit further south during the day, more coming in on the during the north and the west but the service will be hit and miss, temperatures about 10—1a , very similar to today. as we head into the weekend, low pressure takes charge once again and the weather becomes more changeable with wet and windy conditions affecting us. no pressure of new antic, find it we see a return to these blustery

showers. 0n see a return to these blustery showers. on saturday, we will start off drier in the east but the rain in the west will move across with showers behind and that rain clearing on sunday leaving us with blustery showers.

the bank of england is about to announce the latest decision on interest rates, with experts expecting a rise to 3% — the highest level in 1a years. the bank is predicted to increase the base rate by three quarters of a percentage point, in what would be the single biggest rise since 1989. we are waiting to see what the decision we are waiting to see what the decisio , , ., . ., , decision is,, but that could be the sin . le decision is,, but that could be the single biggest _ decision is,, but that could be the single biggest increase _ decision is,, but that could be the single biggest increase since i decision is,, but that could be the | single biggest increase since 1989, we are keeping a watchful eye on that decision by the bank of england. 0.75% is widely predicted, let me tell you it is in, the bank of england has raised interest rates

by 0.75% to 3%, exactly as expected. there was some speculation area that the increase might be less than that because the pound decreased a little in value this morning but it also follows from the increase in interest rates in the us, the federal reserve increasing interest rates by 0.75%, that was the fourth successive such rise there, so what we continue to see is a strong dollar. the question is, how is that rise here going to impact on people? we sawjust six weeks ago, when interest rates went up, that was before the so—called mini budget and the impact of that, that mortgage rates went up. the expectation at that point was that interest rates could go up as high as 6% by next

summer, but now the anticipation as they will not go up as high, or like 7.5%, because what was driving the increase in mortgage rates after that mini budget —— a.5%, was a lot of money was being put into the economy, that has now been changed by the new chancellor. joining us now is anna macdonald, fund manager at amati global investors, a fund management business. welcome, thank you forjoining us. your reaction? has welcome, thank you for “oining us. your reaction?i your reaction? as you say, it is as anticipated. _ your reaction? as you say, it is as anticipated. i _ your reaction? as you say, it is as anticipated, i think— your reaction? as you say, it is as anticipated, i think the _ your reaction? as you say, it is as anticipated, i think the bank- your reaction? as you say, it is as anticipated, i think the bank of i anticipated, i think the bank of england were really keen to keep as much turmoil out of the markets, given what we have experienced of the last two months, so keeping in line with that 0.75% increase. we have also gotjeremy hunt's statement, which they initially thought would be on the 31st of october, said the bank of england

0ctober, said the bank of england would have been able to incorporate the views on how tight and how much spending cuts we might have seen in that statement, but that is now not until the 17th of november, so we expect the bank will react to that statement in their meeting in december. statement in their meeting in december-— statement in their meeting in december. , ., ., december. just hearing that in the comments that _ december. just hearing that in the comments that it _ december. just hearing that in the comments that it has _ december. just hearing that in the comments that it has put - december. just hearing that in the comments that it has put out i comments that it has put out accompanying the base interest rate rise of 0.75% are the bank of england says the uk could be heading for its longest recession for many years. let's see the details. the longest recession since reliable records began. anna, if we headed that way, what does that mean? 0bviously that way, what does that mean? obviously it is difficult times ahead but in terms of policy and strategy. ahead but in terms of policy and strate: . , ~ ., ., , strategy. yes, i think that means that together _ strategy. yes, i think that means that together with _ strategy. yes, i think that means that together with the _ strategy. yes, i think that means that together with the bank i strategy. yes, i think that means

that together with the bank of i that together with the bank of england's qualitative tightening process, which is reversing the easing since the financial crisis, picking together with a slowing economy, we have seen a sharp fall in demand particularly for consumers worried about food price rises, energy costs going up, inflation running at over 10%, we will see the bank of england might not tighten as much as initially expected. it always takes time for the effect of these interest rate rises to come through, so it is a bit of a difficult balancing act that they have to manage, but as you said, interest rates are probably going to peak sooner than we might have anticipated. peak sooner than we might have anticipated-— anticipated. that is a strong warninu anticipated. that is a strong warning from _ anticipated. that is a strong warning from the _ anticipated. that is a strong warning from the bank- anticipated. that is a strong warning from the bank of. anticipated. that is a strong i warning from the bank of england, saying the uk could be on course for its longest recession since reliable records began a century ago. it

underlines the difficulties of managing an economy where there is slow growth, high inflation and earnings not keeping pace. people have little spending power. absolutely, we have these factors, things like, they are not within our control, the huge spike in energy costs since the invasion of ukraine, but do have some confidence and optimism, those price rises, some of them are starting to peak and we have seen some easing in supply chains, so what we might see is inflation does start to come down, thatis inflation does start to come down, that is everything that the bank of england has the target, getting inflation down so it doesn't become entrenched. another positive is that unemployment does remain very low, 3.5%. everyone needs to be careful

with what the bank is saying in terms of the potential length of the recession, but there are some various factors that could start to ease things for consumers and businesses. ease things for consumers and businesses-— ease things for consumers and businesses. ~ ., ., , businesses. when inflation is driven businesses. when inflation is driven b the businesses. when inflation is driven by the increase _ businesses. when inflation is driven by the increase in _ businesses. when inflation is driven by the increase in the _ businesses. when inflation is driven by the increase in the cost - businesses. when inflation is driven by the increase in the cost of - by the increase in the cost of commodities, rather than people going out and spending a lot of money, how does the bank of england putting up interest rates help to tackle back?— putting up interest rates help to tackle back? , , ., ., tackle back? there is still a demand element, tackle back? there is still a demand element. so — tackle back? there is still a demand element, so the _ tackle back? there is still a demand element, so the bank _ tackle back? there is still a demand element, so the bank of _ tackle back? there is still a demand element, so the bank of england i element, so the bank of england putting up interest rates are signalling that liquidity conditions are tightening and therefore we will have to spend more on things like mortgages and so on. whilst these extra factors like energy costs do play an important part, there is still a demand side that needs to be corrected. ., ~ still a demand side that needs to be corrected. ., ,, , ., , still a demand side that needs to be

corrected. . ~' , ., , . 0ur economics editor faisal islam joins us from the bank of england — this rate rise widely anticipated — the question is how much higher could rates go? ajumbo rise, 0.75%, largest rise by over 30 years, taking the base rates to 3%, as you have been hearing, what markets expected, it will still come as a shock to many people on the receiving end, most notably in terms of people who have to pay their mortgage bills, those on variable rates, a fifth of people, £78 rise on average, up by hundreds of pounds over the past year. this is the eighth consecutive rise that we have seen. quite interesting that the forecast that accompanies this bank of england decision, by seven votes to two, that the forecasts

show the uk faces a recession, we have heard that before but not a rescission of this length, a two—year prolonged recession is the fair expressed in the bank of england's own forecast. that would be, if it came to pass, the longest recession on record. let's be clear, a lengthy period, not as deep as some of the recessions we have seen in the past ten or 20 years. but prolonged. a quarter to quarter, over two years, the economy continually falling. that is bad news, unemployment, as you were talking about, heading up to 6.5%, and those on fixed rate mortgages, we have heard a lot about them, 2 million people coming off them by the end of next year, the bank's calculations is that on average they hate in terms of increased mortgage

costs will be £3000 per year for those coming off fixed—rate mortgages between roughly now and the end of next year. on top of that, it sounds like i'm layering on bad news, on top of that they have had to make an assumption about what the government will do in terms of energy support next year, but some of it will be phased out, so they are assuming that on average british typical households will face an energy bill of about £3000 versus 2500 now. it will not work out like that because the support will be concentrated in a targeted number of households and others will get nothing. itjust depends, but on average they've made an assumption to make forecasts for the economy. so you have a bad picture for the economy, the uk's forecast to be

doing worse than both the us and eurozone, interest rates going higher, a little twist here which is it sounds extraordinary, a two—year recession amid the bank is notjust raising rates but saying rates have further to go up. but they have done something they've never done before which they have said that where people assume rates are going to go above 5%, that is too high. it is trying to guide markets downwards and say that five is too high, i think we have to assume that they are thinking that rates will go to a.5% or something, by next year. a lot of news in this report, big decision on interest rates. and terms the terms the fact erms recession could yea rs rates is where markets say they will. is there danger

where markets say they will. is there albeiter that choice can make a recession worse? is that choice can make a recession worse? , the worse? teefe ieteeflfiig ..;e _ the bank. worse? ieefe lefigfl—fg _ the banm worse? ieefe ie¥e§£ _ the bank of england worse? ieefe ie1e§£ _ the bank of england is government, the bank of england is aware of that, they face a series of government, the bank of england is aware of th choices. ace a series of government, the bank of england is aware of th choices. ace a face 5 of government, the bank of england is aware of th choices. ace a face a of government, the bank of england is aware on hr choices. ace a face a of government, the bank of england is aware on inflation, . ace a face a of government, the bank of england is aware on inflation, . ace is face a of government, the bank of england is aware on inflation, . ace is theiri of choice on inflation, that is their to choice on inflation, that is their down, to get choice on inflation, that is their down, is to get choice on inflation, that is their down, is to gthey choice on inflation, that is their raised vn, is to gthey have raised interest rates today and will continue to have raised interest rates today and will co albeit to have raised interest rates today and will co albeit lower have raised interest rates today and will co al are lower ffff f f ff f f ff fff have raised interest rates today and will co al are predicting. ff f f ff f f ff fff have raised interest rates today and will co al are predicting. ff'f the f f ff f f ff fff know that is going to make the economic situation on m reasons, but these reasc willjut these rising , reasc will also aese rising , reasc will also affect sing , interest rates will also affect businesses, small businesses and loans that they get, bigger businesses that borrow in corporate markets, they also high markets, they also high market rates. also high market rates. the also rates were

go the go the turmoil of the the budget experience. since the u—turn, , calmed fact bank is indicating the bun that the bank is indicating the bun not get to 5%, that is progress of assortment will not feel like it for people facing £3000 increases in their mortgages, so there is a challenge with mortgages and lending, a lot of this is about what is going on across the world, some of this challenge in the us, interest rates raise there, also in the eurozone will start but there is the eurozone will start but there is the aftermath of that turmoil we saw after the mini budget and the massive u—turn that saw the fall of the prime minister and chancellor, thatis the prime minister and chancellor, that is also affecting things. the bank of england predicting that the uk economy will be worse than both the eurozone and us over the coming couple of years. a tough couple of years ahead, that is the message from the bank of england, tough decisions for them because they are

raising rates even though they are predicting a lengthy recession longer than we have seen on british records. ., ., ~' longer than we have seen on british records. . ,, ., longer than we have seen on british records. . «f ., ., records. looking back to that mini budaet records. looking back to that mini budget that _ records. looking back to that mini budget that the _ records. looking back to that mini budget that the markets - records. looking back to that mini budget that the markets reacted i records. looking back to that minil budget that the markets reacted so badly to, because of the unfunded government spending, the aim of that was to put more money in people's pockets going forward to what is coming next in the financial statement from the chancellor, it is going to be completely different, it is about cutting public spending and it will be about increasing taxes, less money and people's pockets at these times of rising inflation. yes, people may see that as slightly paradoxical, but the point ofjeremy hunt the chancellor and prime minister rishi sunak trying to send a message of being tough on public finances, their points is that it enables the bank, although they have

to raise interest rates, they are not going to raise them as far as we thought they were, so however bad for .5% might be, 3% seems now, it will not go up to 6%.— for .596 might be, 396 seems now, it will not go up to 696.— will not go up to 696. thank you. if ou are will not go up to 696. thank you. if you are watching _ will not go up to 696. thank you. if you are watching on _ will not go up to 696. thank you. if you are watching on bbc— will not go up to 696. thank you. if you are watching on bbc two, - will not go up to 696. thank you. if i you are watching on bbc two, thank you are watching on bbc two, thank you for your company, see you soon. let's carry on talking about the increasing interest rates. joining me now is jane king, a mortgage and equity release advisor at ash—ridge private finance. welcome, what is your perspective on this 0.75% increase? welcome, what is your perspective on this 0.7596 increase?— this 0.7596 increase? well, it wasn't unexpected. — this 0.7596 increase? well, it wasn't unexpected, nevertheless _ this 0.7596 increase? well, it wasn't unexpected, nevertheless i'm - this 0.7596 increase? well, it wasn't unexpected, nevertheless i'm sure l unexpected, nevertheless i'm sure there are a lot of borrowers getting out their calculators and trying to work and how much it will cost them. it is not great news for mortgage

borrowers, but i think we do need a matter perspective on interest rates were going up, fixed rates going up anyway over the last year, the size and speed of the increase is what has shocked people. if you took out on average mortgage of 1000 37,000 over 25 years, when interest rates for 2%, over 25 years, when interest rates for2%, if over 25 years, when interest rates for 2%, if you did it today, it would cost you £52 per month. if you had to hundred thousand pounds tracker, it would cost you more. we're not talking about hundreds and hundreds of pounds but when you combine it with the cost of living, increases in food and fuel, it is good news. increases in food and fuel, it is good new-— increases in food and fuel, it is good news. increases in food and fuel, it is aood news. ~ . . . good news. what advice can you give to --eole good news. what advice can you give to people who _ good news. what advice can you give to people who are — good news. what advice can you give to people who are really _ good news. what advice can you give to people who are really worried - to people who are really worried about whether they can afford their mortgage, afford all their other outgoings at a time of increasing expenditure but wages not rising at

the same pace? {iii expenditure but wages not rising at the same pace?— the same pace? of course, people will cut their _ the same pace? of course, people will cut their discretionary - will cut their discretionary spending, a roof over your head is the most important thing that you have, your mortgage is the most important, so people will cut back on a lot in order to make their mortgage payments. most lenders will have stress tested borrowers to see that they are on board, so most borrowers will have had some wiggle room. the biggest issue we face is job losses because with that at a loss of income, it is going to be really difficult for people stop if you are coming to the end of your fixed rate, you may have an open mind on whether to fix again look at a variable, and if you really are going to be struggling, you need to contact them as soon as possible

because there are things you can do, nobody wants to kick you out of your home, deborah steps you can take but you must contact them as soon as possible. you must contact them as soon as ossible. f ., . , possible. mortgage lenders tightening _ possible. mortgage lenders tightening criteria, - possible. mortgage lenders tightening criteria, are - possible. mortgage lenders. tightening criteria, are they? people worrying that they can afford those mortgages, you have said mortgage lenders want to help, they don't want to keep people out of their homes, but in the entity are a business and people cannot afford to pay, what will mortgage lenders be waking up, how is that filtering through? waking up, how is that filtering throu~h? ~ i, waking up, how is that filtering throu~h? ~ . ., waking up, how is that filtering throurh? . ., ., ., waking up, how is that filtering throu~h? ~ . ., ., ., through? what we are looking at now is under the — through? what we are looking at now is under the mortgage _ through? what we are looking at now is under the mortgage market - through? what we are looking at now is under the mortgage market review| is under the mortgage market review carried out many years ago, lenders do carry out tests and normally stress test mortgages around 3%, so usually 5%, the upshot is most borrowers will have to accept they cannot borrow as much as they could six months to a year ago, especially

when they are factoring in the increased cost—of—living mat they factor that in with figures from the office of national statistics, so borrowing a mass will be less, people will have to accept that, —— borrowing amounts. lenders can extend the term, make a payment holiday, there will also be cases where it is hopeless and unfortunately that happens regardless of what interest rates are, but it will be to have for the foreseeable future. —— it will be tough for the foreseeable future. thank you. you can find a mortgage calculator on our website on www.bbc.co.uk/news/business — the calculator helps you figure out how the changes will impact you. some comments from the chancellor,

jeremy hunt has said inflation is the enemy and is weighing heavily on families. pensioners and businesses across the country, that is why our number one priority is to grip inflation and today the bank has taken action in line with their objective to return inflation target and a reminder, that target inflation rate for the bank of england is 2% and currently inflation is just above 10%. england is 2% and currently inflation isjust above 10%. his statement goes on to say, it is rates are rising across the world as countries manage rising prices, largely driven by the covid pandemic and vladimir putin's invasion of ukraine. the most important thing the british government can do right now is to restore stability, sort out our public finances and get debt falling so that interest rate rises are kept as limits possible. sound money add a stable economy and the best ways to deliver lower mortgage rates, morejobs and long—term

growth but there are no easy options and we will need to take difficult decisions on tax and spending to get there. that issue of what the government will be doing on tax and spending will be clear of november when the financial statement from the chancellor is given, previously it was supposed to happen in the 31st of a towbar, that was delayed, now we will have those details on the 17th of november —— slst details on the 17th of november —— 31st of october. have you got questions about the impact of today's interest rate decision on your finances? whether you are a mortgage owner, renter orsaver — what would you like to know? at 3.30, shaun ley will be joined by our personal finance correspondent and two money experts to talk through some of the issues. send your questions via social media using the hashtag #bbcyourquestions — or email us — yourquestions@bbc.co.uk. and do join us this afternoon. some breaking news from pakistan — former prime minister imran khan has been shot in the leg

while on his protest march. the incident happened around ninety miles outside the north eastern city of lahore. members of his party have confirmed that no one has died but another four people were injured. live to islamabad, with our correspondent sahar baloch. what can you tell us? right now one ofthe what can you tell us? right now one of the leaders _ what can you tell us? right now one of the leaders speaking _ what can you tell us? right now one of the leaders speaking to _ what can you tell us? right now one of the leaders speaking to a - what can you tell us? right now one of the leaders speaking to a local. of the leaders speaking to a local channel and confirmed that imran khan was injured during a rally, and at the same time he has been taken back there where he will be treated medically. for other people were also injured during the rally, he was there to conquer great people and speak about how soon they can arrange the general elections, he has been demanding this for awhile. some have been describing this

attack as an assassination attempt, we are not that phrase because it has not been clear whether this was a deliberate targeting of whether shots were fired and they were caught up in that. are you getting any clarity?— any clarity? right now there is no clari on any clarity? right now there is no clarity on this _ any clarity? right now there is no clarity on this claim, _ any clarity? right now there is no clarity on this claim, because - any clarity? right now there is no | clarity on this claim, because right now the leaders are very busy taking clear of imran khan and they are calling it an assassination attempt but we have no clarity at the moment, what we know so far is that imran khan was injured while he was speaking to a large crowd. he has been staying here for almost a day now. his long march has been going on for seven days. there were fears shown by his party that he would be attacked but so far we have no confirmation.— attacked but so far we have no confirmation. ., , ., , confirmation. the goal of this rally has been to _ confirmation. the goal of this rally has been to try — confirmation. the goal of this rally has been to try to _ confirmation. the goal of this rally has been to try to force _ confirmation. the goal of this rally has been to try to force early - has been to try to force early elections, or is likely to happen? is the rally likely to be abandoned,

what impact might have? for the past seven da s what impact might have? for the past seven days the _ what impact might have? for the past seven days the rally _ what impact might have? for the past seven days the rally had _ what impact might have? for the past seven days the rally had been - seven days the rally had been re—entering a bit, because when imran khan started it, he said he wanted to bring some sort of conclusion to his fight with the fact he wants to bring all the corrupt officials to book, and he basically wants to get early elections, but so far it seems that this entire rally was losing its perspective and people were also losing interest. people were also losing interest. people were also losing interest. people were also losing interest in the way that they were not congregating as much as the way used to, but right now imran khan has been demanding this since april when he was thrown out of parliament and he blames it on some sort of foreign conspiracy against his government but those claims have not been confirmed so far. this is what he has been saying, he has been organising large rallies and he has been saying he wants to bring in people to demand an early election,

but so far that has not happened and it seems that right now this rally, in its seventh day, was meandering until this incident today. let in its seventh day, was meandering until this incident today.— until this incident today. let me ou if until this incident today. let me you if you _ until this incident today. let me you if you more _ until this incident today. let me you if you more details - until this incident today. let me you if you more details we - until this incident today. let me you if you more details we are l you if you more details we are getting from another correspondent in athlone about, saying that —— in aslam abad, imran khan has been moved to a hospital, and party leader has said that imran khan is in a stable condition, he is conscious with a bandage on his leg, and as he was taken out the open top vehicle, he was still giving people instructions and his party say he is now somewhere safe. on that question as to whether it was an assassination attempt on whether it was indiscriminate fire that hit him, it is unclear. unclear whether the man with the gun was there to target imran khan.

the home secretary suella braverman is visiting dover this morning as the government struggles with both the overcrowding crisis at the manston immigration facility and the rising numbers of migrants crossing the channel in small boats. ms braverman is under mounting political pressure over the conditions at the manston processing centre in kent. separately, the chairs of four parliamentary select committees have written to the home secretary asking for clarity on how the government plans to cut small boat crossings in the english channel and reduce the backlog of asylum claims. our political correspondent has more on suella braverman's trip to dover. unusually there is no media access for this visit, we expect her to go to the manston facility, she is expected in dover as we have been saying, but it looks like there will be limited if not no chance to ask any questions during the course of

her visit, any questions during the course of hervisit, pretty any questions during the course of her visit, pretty unusual. any questions during the course of hervisit, pretty unusual. she any questions during the course of her visit, pretty unusual. she said earlier this week she intended to go and see for herself what is going on, we know the figures, these thousand 500 people according to the government, far more than the facilities capable or designed to hold. so she will be assessing the situation and trying to work out how to un—gum this system. suella braverman reluctant to talk today but somebody who is is the albanian prime minister edi rama, he has been responding to a lot of the focus going on here on the number of albanians coming over in small boats, crossing the channel over the course of this year. the numbers have been rising dramatically — between september, may to september, albanian nationals alone accounted for almost 42% of people making the crossing in small boats. suella braverman has said there is a real problem with people trying to exploit the modern slavery laws here, there's been conversations about the criminal gangs she says are operating involving albanians, but the albanian prime minister

himself was on newsnight yesterday, really taking exception to some of the rhetoric. this is what he had to say. it is about failed policies, it's not about albanians or aliens or gangsters, but it is about failed policies on borders and on crime. so, what is likely to happen? is there likely to be a change of policy by the government, a change of strategy, is that what she's looking at? i think there has to be, because ministers accept themselves that the immigration and asylum system currently is not working, it is broken, in the words of suella braverman earlier in the week. rishi sunak, the prime minister, said this was an escalating problem yesterday during prime minister's questions. there are problems on a number of fronts, and they are all interlinked — there is the question of capacity at that facility in kent right now, which is symptomatic of a wider problem in terms of finding places for migrants arriving on those

small boats to be housed. they are only meant to be in manston very temporarily, 21; hours or so, but there is clearly a problem at the moment and finding alternative accommodation elsewhere in the country. that needs to be sorted out. there is the ongoing and worsening situation in terms of people arriving on those small boats from the french coast. clearly there needs to be some sort of new arrangement with france to try and deter people or stop them getting on those boats in first place. there is a problem around the amount of time it is taking to process asylum applications. at the moment it is taking i think about “i months for someone's application to be looked at and judged on its merits. that is longer than many other european countries. the government had a plan for trying to put people on planes and send them to rwanda. nobody has got on a plane so far, that policy is currently being considered in the courts. on severalfronts there are problems, and demands across the board for some sort of fresh solutions to

deal with all of this. a long—awaited report will be released later into the response of the emergency services to the bomb attack at the manchester arena five years ago. 22 people died in the attack, as people left an ariana grade concert at the venue. the report is expected to be very critical of the police, ambulance, and fire services. one of the firefighters has told the bbc that the response had been �*embarassing and shameful�*. danny, tell us more. inaudible. at 2:30pm, the chairman will give a news conference talking about his findings. this is volume two, we had volume one last year looking at security, volume two today we look at the emergency services responsive to the attack. during the oral

hearings and evidence given over the last few months, you could hear about a list of things that shouldn't have happened, things that went wrong involving the bluelight emergency services. they had to pull that together into a conclusion to see what went wrong, a key thing is that two of the people who did die should have died that night, the evidence has been that 20 of them had such injuries that they would have died anyway but possibly two of them could survive, the youngest victim of the attack and alsojohn atkinson who was accompanied by a man called ron blake, four hours, before he was taken for help, but mr agatha and then died. that report comes at 2:30pm. —— mr atkins. the governor of the bank of england andrew bailey is holding a news conference to explain the reasons behind

the interest rates decision. welcome to the november monetary policy report press conference. today we have increased the bank rate to 3%, we have raise rates by a total of 2.9 percentage points during that period. these are big changes. they have a real impact on people cosmic lives, so why are we doing it and why are we doing it now when so many people are already struggling with higher energy and food prices and other bills? quite simply we are increasing the bank rate because inflation is too high. it is the bank was myjob to bring it down. for a long time, inflation had been low and stable. most people

did not have to worry about inflation, but that has changed. it has changed because of supply changes because of the pandemic, the russian invasion of ukraine. inflation stands at 10%, but i know for many people will feel worse. people should not have to worry about inflation as they go about their daily business. that's why we have been raising interest rates and did so again today. low and stable inflation is the bedrock of a stable economy, a predictable economy, in which people can go about their lives and plan for the future with confidence. an economy in which hard earned money keeps its value. if we do not act forcefully now will be worse later on. as the forecast we are publishing today shows, it is a tough road ahead. the sharp increase

in energy prices caused by russia's invasion of ukraine is mid—as poor as a nation. the level of economic activity is likely to be flattened even for full some time. but the economy will recover and inflation will fall. we cannot pretend to know what will happen to gas prices, that depends on the war in ukraine, but from where we stand now we think inflation will begin to fall back from the middle of next year. probably quite sharply. to make sure that happens, the bank rate may have to go up further in the coming months. we cannot make promises about future interest rates, the paste upon where we stand today, we think the bank rate will have to go up think the bank rate will have to go up by less than currently priced in financial markets, that is important, because it means that the rates on new fixed term mortgages should not need to rise as they have

done. i want to make some additional points, and there will be some slides coming up, i believe. there we are. i. as soon there is fluctuation market since the press conference at the beginning of august, so the lines on show the peak level of interest rates expected in financial markets in various economies, and how those have moved since our last forecast. the expectations to the bank rate here in the uk are plotted on the turquoise line. at the time of the august report the market implied rate peaked. by the september policy announcement on the 22nd of september, it was 5%, and five days later when turmoil in the market was most intense the past reached its

highest peak at nearly 6.5% at november next year. as the market closed yesterday it stood at about 4.75% and is currently lower than that. on the average of the market implied pass over the seven days of our usual 15 day window this means the forecast we presented day forecast the bank rate of rising to 4.25% forecast the bank rate of rising to ii.25% during the second quarter of next year. despite the shorter window this is substantially higher than we had in august. part of the repricing in uk interest rates reflects global developments, but this has been a uk specific component, which you can see in the wide turquoise bars. the significant moves in uk yields in uk financial conditions more broadly have occurred in parallel with significant developments in policy.

as we describe in the monetary policy reports the government has announced a price guarantee and energy relief scheme. these schemes provide support to households and businesses with their energy bills. the energy price guarantee will now last for six months. details are yet to follow on the level of support provided beyond that period. the npc has therefore adopted a stylised indicative path. the working assumption is a typical household energy bills halfway between the announced £2500 limit and the level implied by futures prices under the option price cap. the energy support policies are likely to limit significantly further increases in inflation and reduces volatility while also supporting spending relative to the august protections.

other fiscal measures announced as of the 17th of october also support demand relative to the projection. the november forecast does not incorporate any fiscal measures that may be announced in the autumn statement scheduled for the 18th of november. turning to gas prices, sadly, as a consequence of russia's invasion of ukraine i had to talk at length about wholesale gas prices, this is the third press conference we have had to do this. wholesale gas prices continue to be exceptionally volatile. spot prices have fallen recently as we can see from the turquoise line in this chart, but medium—term futures prices have been driven higher by russia's restriction of gas supplies to europe, and concerns about storage over the winter and beyond. you can see that by comparing the

orange line from november with the purple line for august. the committee is conditioned on the energy and none energy commodity prices, which is a change to the convention for the fun occurs for the six months of the projection only and then remain constant. to be frank i would describe this as a pragmatic choice we've had to make, avoiding what would otherwise be a purely mechanicaljump in prices, using the former convention beyond the two—year projection. moving on to the economic outlook, the news in the economic data since august has been more modest. gross domestic has

been more modest. gross domestic has been weaker and inflation numbers while high have come and about as we expected in august. keeping an eye on the labour market there are signs that the labour market has started to soften, but it remains tight. the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% in the three months to august which is the three months to august which is the lowest level since 197a. as you can see on this next chart in the purple bar is a number of unemployed people has now fallen below its pre—covid level, but a key reason why the labour market has tightened since the pandemic is a marked increase in the number of people who are without a job and are not actively seeking one. the number of such so—called inactive people has risen again as you can see in the blue bars and more than projected. sadly many of the people are outside the labour market report that they suffer from long—term sickness.

the labour market report that they sufferfrom long—term sickness. to say a little about the forecast looking for the forwards, the npc expects inflationary pressures remain strong over the next year, but in its central projection, which is on the market implied pass the bank rate, inflation. lee. it reaches 1.4% at the end of the second year, below the 2% target, and full s20 at the end of the third year. contributing to this form is the fact that prices drop out of the calculations of the annual inflation rate, but in addition tighter financial conditions and a squeeze on real incomes slow demand and eventually lead to excess supply and rising unemployment. this downturn dampens domestic inflationary pressures. in the committee's best

collective judgment, pressures. in the committee's best collectivejudgment, gdp will collective judgment, gdp will continue collectivejudgment, gdp will continue to fall during next year and into 202a. compared with previous sessions gdp remains weak compared to its pre—inflationary levels for a long period, you can see it by the yellow line in the chart. there is however mortared story. committee will not pursue a path that we think will drive inflation below target. it doesn't follow the markets it sets the bank rate sustainably and in a way that limits volatility and output. in every monetary policy report we also publish a projection conditional bank rate, but for the avoidance of any doubt it does not mean the committee expects to keep bank rates constant either. that said, comparing outcomes in alternative conditions it gives us a sense of

different policy decisions shaping the paths of inflation, which you can see by the addition of the dashed yellow line which has been added based on a constant level of bank rates of 3%, you can see the depth of the recession is much shallower. not surprisingly the projected outcomes of inflation are also different. consumer price inflation is expected to be above rather than below the target. a further point before i conclude, regardless of the path of the bank rate, the npcjudges the risk to its inflation projections are skewed to the upside. in spite the ski reflects the the remote possibility of price setting. the upside skew, to put it simply, yes we project a fall in inflation, but there are

upsides that part. it's not is for this reason the majority of the committee judges that they may be required to return inflation to target should be broadly in line with the forecast presented in the november to march policy report, however the central conditions in the market implied bank rate serves as reminder we should increase the bank rate too far. it will be required to target is shallower than that by implied markets. however there are considerable uncertainties about the outlook, if it is on inflation pressures telling the pressures it will respond forcefully if necessary, and with that we will be happy to take questions, thank you. be happy to take questions, thank ou. , ., , , , be happy to take questions, thank ou. , ., , ,, ., be happy to take questions, thank you. usual process, grateful if you could wait for _ you. usual process, grateful if you could wait for the _ you. usual process, grateful if you could wait for the microphones - you. usual process, grateful if you

could wait for the microphones to | could wait for the microphones to -et could wait for the microphones to gel to— could wait for the microphones to gel to you. — could wait for the microphones to get to you, and state your name and organisation — get to you, and state your name and organisation clearly when you start. we will _ organisation clearly when you start. we will get through as many as can, and with_ we will get through as many as can, and with that, faisal and then edge. the figures — and with that, faisal and then edge. the figures in the report arise, when _ the figures in the report arise, when they— the figures in the report arise, when they are _ the figures in the report arise, when they are facing _ the figures in the report arise, when they are facing £3000 i the figures in the report arise, - when they are facing £3000 energy bills, rising — when they are facing £3000 energy bills, rising taxes _ when they are facing £3000 energy bills, rising taxes too, _ when they are facing £3000 energy bills, rising taxes too, how- when they are facing £3000 energy bills, rising taxes too, how can - when they are facing £3000 energy bills, rising taxes too, how can you| bills, rising taxes too, how can you justify— bills, rising taxes too, how can you justify they— bills, rising taxes too, how can you justify they will— bills, rising taxes too, how can you justify they will be _ bills, rising taxes too, how can you justify they will be paying - bills, rising taxes too, how can you justify they will be paying the - justify they will be paying the price — justify they will be paying the price for— justify they will be paying the price for this? _ justify they will be paying the price for this?— justify they will be paying the rice for this? , ., ., , ., price for this? very good question, to start by saying _ price for this? very good question, to start by saying we _ price for this? very good question, to start by saying we do _ price for this? very good question, | to start by saying we do understand the difficulties of the situation we are in and the difficulties mortgage holders face. what i would say, two things, first of all, if we don't take action to bring inflation down it gets worse. i've said this before, i will say it again, there

is no easy outcome to this in that sense, and that is important. secondly, this applies to people who will be applying for mortgages which will be applying for mortgages which will be applying for mortgages which will be rolling over fixed will be applying for mortgages which will be rolling overfixed rate mortgages, there's been a lot of commentary quite rightly about what has happened to the mortgage market in the last month or so, what is happen to rates and availability of mortgages. my central view would be that what we have announced today, both in terms of the rate move, which is fully price, was fully price to markets, and the message that we are seeing, given very clearly about our view on the market curve, is that therefore this action should not lead to higher mortgage rates. in fact i think there is a downside to mortgage rates in that sense in terms of new fixed—rate mortgages, as we adjust, as we must do, and in some markets are doing,

from the experiences we've had in the last month or so. i fully accept that as more comfort to some people than others and i want to go back to the point i made at the start which you highlight, this is a difficult time. ,, . you highlight, this is a difficult time. . ., ., you highlight, this is a difficult time. ,, ., ., .,, ., , , you highlight, this is a difficult time. ,, ., ., , . time. quite a lot has happened since the last time — time. quite a lot has happened since the last time you _ time. quite a lot has happened since the last time you sat _ time. quite a lot has happened since the last time you sat here _ time. quite a lot has happened since the last time you sat here for - time. quite a lot has happened since the last time you sat here for one . the last time you sat here for one of these — the last time you sat here for one of these press _ the last time you sat here for one of these press conferences. - the last time you sat here for one of these press conferences. we . the last time you sat here for one . of these press conferences. we had three _ of these press conferences. we had three prime — of these press conferences. we had three prime ministers, _ of these press conferences. we had three prime ministers, more - of these press conferences. we had. three prime ministers, more u—turns than anyone — three prime ministers, more u—turns than anyone wants _ three prime ministers, more u—turns than anyone wants to _ three prime ministers, more u—turns than anyone wants to come. - three prime ministers, more u—turns than anyone wants to come. do - three prime ministers, more u—turns than anyone wants to come. do you i than anyone wants to come. do you have _ than anyone wants to come. do you have a — than anyone wants to come. do you have a sense — than anyone wants to come. do you have a sense of— than anyone wants to come. do you have a sense of lasting _ than anyone wants to come. do you have a sense of lasting damage - than anyone wants to come. do you have a sense of lasting damage hasj have a sense of lasting damage has been done — have a sense of lasting damage has been done to— have a sense of lasting damage has been done to the _ have a sense of lasting damage has been done to the economy - have a sense of lasting damage has been done to the economy in - have a sense of lasting damage has been done to the economy in the l have a sense of lasting damage has. been done to the economy in the last two months _ been done to the economy in the last two months for— been done to the economy in the last two months for households, - two months for households, businesses. _ two months for households, businesses, for— two months for households, businesses, for everyone? i| two months for households, businesses, for everyone? i think ou have businesses, for everyone? i think you have to _ businesses, for everyone? i think you have to sew _ businesses, for everyone? i think you have to sew to _ businesses, for everyone? i think you have to sew to put _ businesses, for everyone? i think you have to sew to put a - businesses, for everyone? i think you have to sew to put a number| businesses, for everyone? i think i you have to sew to put a number of lenses on that, it's a very good question. as we have observed, and i think the first chart showed it very well, there has been a uk premium on rates. if you look at how uk rates have moved since we were here at the

beginning of august compared to the euro and the us chart, they have all gone up, but the uk clearly went up far more and it went up during this period when there was considerable turmoil in the markets. the first thing i would say, an important thing, as we are saying that on now. it is substantially unwound, certainly compared to when we were where we had our last meeting in september which was just for that, obviously a good thing. market liquidity is not back to where we were. the third thing, this is an issue we have to face up to, i was very acutely aware of it when we were in washington recently, there has been a questioning of uk policy, i use uk policy broadly here, and it's not for me to talk about politics, i'm talking about policy, we have to work very hard to put that in the past. elli

we have to work very hard to put that in the past.— we have to work very hard to put that in the past. all i would add is we have seen _ that in the past. all i would add is we have seen that _ that in the past. all i would add is we have seen that back— that in the past. all i would add is we have seen that back to - that in the past. all i would add is we have seen that back to where l we have seen that back to where rates _ we have seen that back to where rates were — we have seen that back to where rates were on the 22nd of september, that was— rates were on the 22nd of september, that was the day of the last monetary policy meeting, the day before _ monetary policy meeting, the day before the government's mini budget, see we _ before the government's mini budget, see we have _ before the government's mini budget, see we have seen, for example, the two-year— see we have seen, for example, the two—year swap rate, which is what two-year— two—year swap rate, which is what two—year fixed—rate mortgages are priced _ two—year fixed—rate mortgages are priced off. — two—year fixed—rate mortgages are priced off, that was 4.5% on the 22nd _ priced off, that was 4.5% on the 22nd of— priced off, that was 4.5% on the 22nd of september, it peaked at 6%, it has— 22nd of september, it peaked at 6%, it has actually come back to slightly _ it has actually come back to slightly below 4.5% now, it is 4.38% as of a _ slightly below 4.5% now, it is 4.38% as of a few— slightly below 4.5% now, it is 4.38% as of a few minutes ago, that obviously— as of a few minutes ago, that obviously hasn't fed through into mortgage pricing yet, which was the point andrew wasjust mortgage pricing yet, which was the point andrew was just alluding to, but although we are seeing those kind of— but although we are seeing those kind of round trips, whether that they are — kind of round trips, whether that they are bearing the in the

predictions, there is liquidity in the markets, ithink predictions, there is liquidity in the markets, i think things have not settled _ the markets, i think things have not settled down yet, and that is obviously something we have a focus on in terms _ obviously something we have a focus on in terms of monitoring market conditions — the fed chair said yesterday that the bigger— the fed chair said yesterday that the bigger risk— the fed chair said yesterday that the bigger risk was _ the fed chair said yesterday that the bigger risk was under- the fed chair said yesterday that i the bigger risk was under tightening verses— the bigger risk was under tightening verses over— the bigger risk was under tightening verses over tightening. _ the bigger risk was under tightening verses over tightening. i— the bigger risk was under tightening verses over tightening. ijust - verses over tightening. i just wonder— verses over tightening. i just wonder if— verses over tightening. i just wonder if you _ verses over tightening. ijust wonder if you had _ verses over tightening. ijust wonder if you had the - verses over tightening. ijust wonder if you had the same i verses over tightening. ijust - wonder if you had the same view given— wonder if you had the same view given that — wonder if you had the same view given that even _ wonder if you had the same view given that even with _ wonder if you had the same view given that even with a _ wonder if you had the same view given that even with a 3% - wonder if you had the same view l given that even with a 3% constant interest _ given that even with a 3% constant interest rate. _ given that even with a 3% constant interest rate, you _ given that even with a 3% constant interest rate, you have _ given that even with a 3% constant interest rate, you have inflation i interest rate, you have inflation forecast — interest rate, you have inflation forecast at _ interest rate, you have inflation forecast at 0.8 _ interest rate, you have inflation forecast at 0.8 percentage - interest rate, you have inflation i forecast at 0.8 percentage points three _ forecast at 0.8 percentage points three years — forecast at 0.8 percentage points three years out, _ forecast at 0.8 percentage points three years out, and _ forecast at 0.8 percentage points three years out, and with - forecast at 0.8 percentage points three years out, and with the - forecast at 0.8 percentage points three years out, and with the 3%i forecast at 0.8 percentage points . three years out, and with the 3% its six consecutive _ three years out, and with the 3% its six consecutive quarters _ three years out, and with the 3% its six consecutive quarters of - three years out, and with the 3% its six consecutive quarters of negative gp. six consecutive quarters of negative gp~ ill— six consecutive quarters of negative gp. �* , �* «f gp. i'll bring ben in, i think there are things — gp. i'll bring ben in, i think there are things that _ gp. i'll bring ben in, i think there are things that we _ gp. i'll bring ben in, i think there

are things that we share - gp. i'll bring ben in, i think there are things that we share in - gp. i'll bring ben in, i think there are things that we share in terms j gp. i'll bring ben in, i think there i are things that we share in terms of our experience in the assessment with the faird, and then there are important differences between certainly the uk and europe more generally, and i think in the commentary and discussions it is important to draw out those discussions as well. {lin important to draw out those discussions as well.- important to draw out those discussions as well. on that three ear discussions as well. on that three year forecast _ discussions as well. on that three year forecast you _ discussions as well. on that three year forecast you remember - discussions as well. on that three year forecast you remember gas i year forecast you remember gas prices _ year forecast you remember gas prices are — year forecast you remember gas prices are falling, so a gaseous the strangest— prices are falling, so a gaseous the strangest picture of underlying inflation — strangest picture of underlying inflation on that assumption, but there _ inflation on that assumption, but there is— inflation on that assumption, but there is a — inflation on that assumption, but there is a big difference between what _ there is a big difference between what has — there is a big difference between what has gone on bows with inflation and growth _ what has gone on bows with inflation and growth between the us and europe. — and growth between the us and europe, and as andrew says, it is not always— europe, and as andrew says, it is not always made clear, so the pandemic— not always made clear, so the pandemic was common shots all of us, the war— pandemic was common shots all of us, the war is— pandemic was common shots all of us, the war is not — pandemic was common shots all of us, the war is not. gas prices have gone

up the war is not. gas prices have gone up usually— the war is not. gas prices have gone up usually in — the war is not. gas prices have gone up usually in europe, not much at all in _ up usually in europe, not much at all in the — up usually in europe, not much at all in the united states. they are still barely 10% in the united states. — still barely 10% in the united states, wholesale gas prices, compared to those in europe. this is a measure _ compared to those in europe. this is a measure of— compared to those in europe. this is a measure of the difference in growth. — a measure of the difference in growth. i_ a measure of the difference in growth, ijust wrote down before i came _ growth, ijust wrote down before i came out. — growth, ijust wrote down before i came out, the pmi indices, which are a good _ came out, the pmi indices, which are a good high—frequency and up—to—date measure _ a good high—frequency and up—to—date measure of— a good high—frequency and up—to—date measure of grace, at the beginning of the _ measure of grace, at the beginning of the year— measure of grace, at the beginning of the year and what they are now, and at _ of the year and what they are now, and at the — of the year and what they are now, and at the beginning of the year they were — and at the beginning of the year they were all of them in the uk, us europe. _ they were all of them in the uk, us europe, very healthy, coming out of the pandemic, so 54 in the euro area, _ the pandemic, so 54 in the euro area. 57— the pandemic, so 54 in the euro area. 57 in— the pandemic, so 54 in the euro area, 57 in the us, 58 in the uk, but the— area, 57 in the us, 58 in the uk, but the most recent readings are 58 in the _ but the most recent readings are 58 in the us. _ but the most recent readings are 58 in the us, the highest and we have a really— in the us, the highest and we have a really big _ in the us, the highest and we have a really big difference between the path of _ really big difference between the path of here, and i to be met by hero— path of here, and i to be met by hero mean— path of here, and i to be met by hero mean in the continent of europe. — hero mean in the continent of europe, and the united states. i think— europe, and the united states. i think that — europe, and the united states. i think that explains quite a lot of

what _ think that explains quite a lot of what divergences there is a policy, but also _ what divergences there is a policy, but also for— what divergences there is a policy, but also for example the strength of the dollar— but also for example the strength of the dollar against both the uk and europe. _ the dollar against both the uk and europe, and that's a big difference, the pandemic was a shock for everybody, this one is very differentiated. | everybody, this one is very differentiated.— everybody, this one is very differentiated. ., «f ., ., differentiated. i would like to ask a auestion differentiated. i would like to ask a question about _ differentiated. i would like to ask a question about the _ differentiated. i would like to ask. a question about the interpretation of the _ a question about the interpretation of the forecast _ a question about the interpretation of the forecast on _ a question about the interpretation of the forecast on two _ a question about the interpretation of the forecast on two grounds, - a question about the interpretation of the forecast on two grounds, if i j of the forecast on two grounds, if i made _ of the forecast on two grounds, if i made the — of the forecast on two grounds, if i made. the inflation— of the forecast on two grounds, if i made. the inflation forecast - of the forecast on two grounds, if i made. the inflation forecast is- made. the inflation forecast is closer— made. the inflation forecast is closer to — made. the inflation forecast is closer to your _ made. the inflation forecast is closer to your target— made. the inflation forecast is closer to your target on - made. the inflation forecast is closer to your target on the i closer to your target on the constant _ closer to your target on the constant 3% _ closer to your target on the constant 3% rate _ closer to your target on the i constant 3% rate assumption closer to your target on the - constant 3% rate assumption than closer to your target on the _ constant 3% rate assumption than the market— constant 3% rate assumption than the market pass _ constant 3% rate assumption than the market pass going _ constant 3% rate assumption than the market pass going up— constant 3% rate assumption than the market pass going up to _ constant 3% rate assumption than the market pass going up to 5.25%, - constant 3% rate assumption than the market pass going up to 5.25%, so i market pass going up to 5.25%, so would _ market pass going up to 5.25%, so would people — market pass going up to 5.25%, so would people be _ market pass going up to 5.25%, so would people be correct— market pass going up to 5.25%, so would people be correct in- market pass going up to 5.25%, so i would people be correct in assuming that was— would people be correct in assuming that was closer — would people be correct in assuming that was closer to _ would people be correct in assuming that was closer to where _ would people be correct in assuming that was closer to where you - would people be correct in assuming that was closer to where you think. that was closer to where you think the terminal— that was closer to where you think the terminal rate _ that was closer to where you think the terminal rate should _ that was closer to where you think the terminal rate should be, - that was closer to where you think. the terminal rate should be, closest there _ the terminal rate should be, closest there is— the terminal rate should be, closest there is is— the terminal rate should be, closest there is is today— the terminal rate should be, closest there is is today is _ the terminal rate should be, closest there is is today is to _ the terminal rate should be, closest there is is today is to date _ the terminal rate should be, closest there is is today is to date going - there is is today is to date going up, there is is today is to date going up. and — there is is today is to date going up, and secondly— there is is today is to date going up, and secondly the _ there is is today is to date going up, and secondly the forecast i there is is today is to date going up, and secondly the forecast is| up, and secondly the forecast is conditioned _ up, and secondly the forecast is conditioned on— up, and secondly the forecast is conditioned on fiscal— up, and secondly the forecast is conditioned on fiscal policy - up, and secondly the forecast is conditioned on fiscal policy noti conditioned on fiscal policy not changing — conditioned on fiscal policy not changing on _ conditioned on fiscal policy not changing on november- conditioned on fiscal policy not changing on november the - conditioned on fiscal policy not - changing on november the treasury is suggesting _ changing on november the treasury is suggesting a _ changing on november the treasury is suggesting a large _ changing on november the treasury is suggesting a large fiscal— changing on november the treasury is suggesting a large fiscal tightening . suggesting a large fiscal tightening of may— suggesting a large fiscal tightening of may be — suggesting a large fiscal tightening of may be up— suggesting a large fiscal tightening of may be up to— suggesting a large fiscal tightening of may be up to 2%— suggesting a large fiscal tightening of may be up to 2% of—

suggesting a large fiscal tightening of may be up to 2% of gdp. - suggesting a large fiscal tightening of may be up to 2% of gdp. how. suggesting a large fiscal tightening - of may be up to 2% of gdp. how would that change _ of may be up to 2% of gdp. how would that change the — of may be up to 2% of gdp. how would that change the forecast? _ of may be up to 2% of gdp. how would that change the forecast? our- of may be up to 296 of gdp. how would that change the forecast?— that change the forecast? our star, do in reverse _ that change the forecast? our star, do in reverse order _ that change the forecast? our star, do in reverse order if _ that change the forecast? our star, do in reverse order if you _ that change the forecast? our star, do in reverse order if you don't - do in reverse order if you don't mind, to answeryour do in reverse order if you don't mind, to answer your second question, we will always condition unannounced fiscal policy. as explained in the introductory remarks we have had to think quite hard about the treatment what the word announce means, and the stylised interpretation of it, but on the other measures which do not appear in the forecast, we will take this into account when we next meet, as we always would do, and you'll see what the chancellor announces. my see what the chancellor announces. my answer to the very interesting question in the first part, the last chart we put up, which had the sort of difference between the two halves if you like of gdp terms, and as you rightly say, you can use a similar

inflationary child, i would emphasise that there is an upside risk on inflation, and it is an npc history, possibly the largest upside risk in npc history, and that reflects the labour market and obviously there are issues around gas prices as well, so we aren't very clearly not saying, we are not putting our bet either way in terms of which is the better curve, but since we do think the market curve is too high, it is useful as a sort of guideline to show where the alternative is, but where the truthful line between the two, we are not given guidance on that, because we don't predict market balance precisely. brute because we don't predict market balance precisely.— because we don't predict market balance precisely. we have got this historically... _ balance precisely. we have got this historically... andrew _ balance precisely. we have got this historically... andrew bailey - balance precisely. we have got this historically... andrew bailey and i historically... andrew bailey and others giving _

historically... andrew bailey and others giving a _ historically... andrew bailey and others giving a news _ historically... andrew bailey and others giving a news conference| others giving a news conference after the bank of england put up interest rates to 2.25%, the biggest increase in interest rates there has been since 1989, the bank of england warning the uk is facing its longest recession since records began. talking about where interest rates will go, saying there has been a uk premium on the interest rates in the uk the only international pressures, but saying that it is being seen to unwind now, but the conditions are difficult, that the bank very much focused on reducing inflation from over 10% of its target of... and the interest rates on individuals, but difficult decisions have to be taken, we will have more of that

coming up on the one o'clock news with ben. let's go back to the breaking news from pakistan, the former prime minister imran khan has been shot in the leg, members of his party has confirmed that no one has died but another four people were injured, and we have pictures now of the aftermath of what happened. there you can see imran khan, i think, in the centre of those images. it's said that he was still talking to his supporters after those shots were fired and he had been the leg, he was travelling on an open top vehicle but was transferred to a bullet—proof car and taken to hospital. his supporters are describing this as an assassination attempt. it is not a phrase that we are using, because it's not clear at all whether the

government was deliberately targeting imran khan or whether the shots —— whether the gunman was deliberate targeting imran khan. the one o'clock news coming up, right now it is time for the weather. hello again. the torrential rain that we had overnight and also this morning has led to some issues with localised flooding, and also large puddles on the roads and pavements. that rain will very slowly clear south—east areas as we go through the rest of the day. it's courtesy of this weather front here. and then behind it, sunshine and showers, but we've got another area of low pressure coming our way which will enhance the showers across wales and south—west england later in the day. you can see the slow progress into east anglia and kent this rain is making. it will linger for much of the afternoon for most. and behind it we have this array of bright—spelled sunshine and showers, but the showers turning heavier, potentially thundery across wales and the south—west. and through the afternoon, here, too, the strength of the wind gusts will increase.

but for most of us today, the winds are going to be lighter than they were yesterday. temperatures ranging from ten in lerwick and aberdeen to 13 in london and cardiff, with the top temperature of 14 in plymouth and st helier. as we head through the evening, eventually the back edge of that rain does clear. the showers in wales and south—west england pushing into southern england. it will be windy for a time too across the english channel. and then behind all of that, the skies clear. but we do have another weather front coming in across the northwest, introducing some showers. but underneath those clear skies it will be a colder night, especially in central eastern areas, where we could well see a touch of frost. tomorrow, the system producing the showers moves away. this ridge of high pressure builds in and settle things down. the showers in the morning will clear leaving most of us with a dry day, some sunshine, and then the showers in the north—west are sinking a bit further south through the day. more coming in on the breeze across the north and the west but the showers will be hit and miss. temperatures, ten to about 14 degrees, so very similar to today.

as we head into the weekend, low pressure takes charge once again and the weather becomes more changeable with wet and windy conditions affecting us. here comes this low pressure from the atlantic, with its various fronts, producing this rain as it pushes from the west to the east. and then behind it we see a return to those blustery showers. so on saturday we'll start off drier in the east but the rain in the west will move across with showers behind. and that rain clearing on sunday leaving us with blustery showers.

the biggest single interest rate rise for more than 30 years. the bank of england hasjust raised its base rate to 3% — an increase of three quarters of a percentage point — meaning higher mortgage bills for many. if we do not act forcefully now, it will be worse later on. and as the forecast we are publishing today shows, it is a tough road ahead. the bank is also warning the uk could be on course for its longest recession since reliable records began a century ago. also this lunchtime... pakistan's former prime minister imran khan survives what his supporters say was an assassination attempt — he's been shot in the leg.

could the emergency services have done more to save lives