tonight at ten... another sharp rise in interest rates, as the bank of england warns of the longest recession on record. interest rates jump to 3% in the biggest single hike since 1989, piling pressure on mortgages and business loans. if we do not act forcefully now, it will be worse later on. and as the forecast we are publishing today shows, it is a tough road ahead. a recession could last well into 2024 — we'll be looking at its impact and asking what the government can do about it. also on the programme... at least one of the people killed in the manchester arena bombing could have been saved if the emergency services had arrived sooner, says a highly critical report.

ukraine's slow advance on the russian—held city of kherson amid reports russia could be preparing to withdraw — our international editor jeremy bowen is on the front—line. you can see why the kherson offensive is taking a lot of time. it is flat, open ground. they are under the russian guns. explosions. pakistan's former prime minister imran khan survives a gun attack during a protest march. and the leisure centres, swimming pools and gyms that could be forced to close this winter as a result of soaring energy costs. coming up in sport on the bbc news channel, manchester united win their final europa league group game, but finishing second means a potentially tricky knockout round playoff awaits.

good evening. the bank of england has raised interest rates from 2.25% to 3% — the biggest single hike in more than 30 years — to try to dampen down soaring inflation. it will impact everything from mortgages and rents to the price of food and services. the bank warned that the uk is heading for a recession that could last until the middle of 2024 — the longest since records began a century ago. our economics editor, faisal islam, is here. yes, sophie, the uk is facing the start of a very challenging few years for the economy and for all of our pockets. as you said, the interest rate today was raised to 3%, a significant three quarters of a percentage pointjump. you can see here it's the highest it's been since 2008 — a clear end to a long period of low interest rates. today's rise has had an immediate effect for those on tracker mortgages.

a typical tracker will have gone up by more than £73 per month today. they've risen more than £280 since last december. inflation is now heading towards the peak, with it expected to fall next year, but remaining above the bank of england target of 2% for some time. the bank now predicts the country will be in the longest recession of the past century, not as deep as the financial crisis in 2008, but lasting until mid—2024. the bank of england is walking a tightrope, trying to grapple with high inflation whilst the economy continues to shrink. the end of a decade and a half of ultra low interest rates was always going to be difficult. but dealing in mortgages has, in recent weeks, felt more like the stock market than the housing market. it's been crazy. it feels like we've been on a roller—coaster

and we're not off it yet. it's coming round for its second loop. and, inevitably, that is hitting the housing market. there has been a drop—off in new buyer interest — that's gone right down in the last month. i think in the south—east it's a0%. as the bank of england tries with a jumbo rate rise to hammer down on a four—decade high in inflation, millions of fixed rate mortgage holders face an average annual extra bill of £3000. how can you justify that they're going to be paying the price for this? we do understand the difficulties of the situation we're in and the difficulties that mortgage holders face. if we don't take action to bring inflation down, it gets worse. for a new chancellor planning tax rises, the bank's new forecast not just points to an historically lengthy recession — there will have been no growth since the end of 2019, across the entire parliament after the pandemic.

the biggest single thing we can do is to help the bank of england bring down inflation, and the bank is taking its measures which it's announced today, but the government also has to play our part by producing national accounts that balance. and it isn'tjust those with mortgages. in derby, rate rises mean this videographer faces a £100 a month rise in rents, among other things. i literally broke down and cried, man, because i was wondering how i'm going to manage everything. you know, everything put together, the rent, the gas and all these things, tax and just all of that together, man. ijust don't know how people are really making it through these hard times in this situation, do you know what i mean? he and his girlfriend won't be the only ones having to move out of the house they love if the bank is right. it's incredibly concerning, i the forecast from the bank of england, about the contraction of the economy, and that we arei

already potentially in recession. families are already incredibly worried about what's - happening in the economy, - with higher prices for everything, and no economic growth to be seen. after extra economic turmoil that was made in britain, the governor said calmer markets did not mean the situation was now fully recovered. you're talking about suffering and sacrifice, people want to know who's to blame. let me say, if we look beyond the last three months, there are some very big external shocks. so, what has happened in the intervening three month period is that, yes, there have been i'm afraid some very specific uk developments. so, those uk—specific shocks, have they all gone, or do the after—effects of that linger on and affect the recovery? it's easier to lose confidence, and it takes longer to regain it. it was very apparent to me that the uk's position and the uk's standing had been damaged,

and that we all, and particularly i and others, have to roll our sleeves up and demonstrate that uk policy—making is back in action. the recession warning saw a notable fall in sterling today. it is a tricky balancing act for all in an economy set for an ongoing fall. ina in a moment we'll hear from in a moment we'll hearfrom our political editor chris mason in westminster on what the government can do but first, let's get more from faisal islam. from faisal a can do but first, let's get more from faisal a bleak assessment from the bank of england today. let from faisal a bleak assessment from the bank of england today.— the bank of england today. let me la out the bank of england today. let me lay out how _ the bank of england today. let me lay out how stark _ the bank of england today. let me lay out how stark it _ the bank of england today. let me lay out how stark it is. _ the bank of england today. let me lay out how stark it is. we've - the bank of england today. let me lay out how stark it is. we've been j lay out how stark it is. we've been talking about the biggestjump in interest rates in over 30 years, the inflation rate at its highest rate inflation rate at its highest rate in a0 years and the forecast of the longest recession in 100 years and that gives you a measure of how serious things are. in terms of comparing two other regions and countries, the forecast does that

and it shows, as we've been saying, that the economy is forecast to shrink in the uk this year and next. in the eurozone that's hit and it's flat, zero this year and next, and the us grows albeit slowly this year and next, so the question about what has happened in the uk. if you are a glass half full it's worth pointing out that although this is a long recession it isn't forecast to be a deep recession, and if we were talking this time last month we wouldn't be talking about interest rates going up to maybe a.5%, but more like 6%, so things a bit less bad than they may otherwise have been. this is all about trade offs, trade offs for households and trade—offs for the bank of england between inflation and growth and for the government too, trying to regain the government too, trying to regain the standing of britain in international markets as we've been hearing the bank of england governor thusis hearing the bank of england governor thus is this idea of tax rises or spending cuts that might harm growth. spending cuts that might harm urowth. �* , spending cuts that might harm urowth. v . ~ spending cuts that might harm urowth. �*, ., ~ ., spending cuts that might harm urowth. �*, ., ~' ., , spending cuts that might harm urowth. �*, ., ~ ., , growth. let's talk to chris mason in westminster- _ growth. let's talk to chris mason in westminster. what _ growth. let's talk to chris mason in westminster. what can _ growth. let's talk to chris mason in -

westminster. what can the government do? it’s westminster. what can the government do? �* , ., ., westminster. what can the government do? �*, ., ., , ., do? it's a fair question when in truth it looks like _ do? it's a fair question when in truth it looks like things - do? it's a fair question when in truth it looks like things could | do? it's a fair question when in i truth it looks like things could get worse. the government can point to the help its offering with energy bills but beyond that things do look pretty grim. two ways we can look at this. the next two weeks, the countdown to the autumn statement, the budget a fortnight today, and in the budget a fortnight today, and in the next two years the countdown to the next two years the countdown to the next two years the countdown to the next general election, so how do things look? the truth is when we count down to that budget in a few weeks' time, as faisal was mentioning, ministers are confronted by the reality of spending cuts and tax rises. they try and wrestle back economic credibility in the eyes of the financial markets, and for many people that will feel a bad situation getting worse, and then there is the question, the obvious question, who or what do people blame for that? rishi sunak will hope he might get some credit, if he manages to pull this off, in trying to steady the ship after his

predecessor liz truss, but plenty of conservative mps fret that they will still be seen as the guilty party even though there are international factors contributing to our current situation as well as domestic ones. 0ne situation as well as domestic ones. one final thought. when we get to that next general election, whatever the outcome and right now the opinion polls look pretty grim for the conservatives, whoever is in government afterwards will inherit exactly the same situation, and the same limits on what they can do about it but i chris mason and faisal islam, thank you both. that's at bbc.co.uk/news. a highly critical report on the response of the emergency services after the manchester arena bombing in may 2017 says at least one of the 22 people who were killed would probably have survived, if help had arrived sooner.

the report said communication between fire, police and ambulance services was virtually non—existent. 28—year—old care worker john atkinson was six metres away from the explosion, which went off at the end of an ariana grande concert. his family said today he was "totally failed at every stage". judith moritz has this report. the manchester arena attack, where the public showed extraordinary courage, but the emergency services failed. spent six months examining the emergency response. his verdict? it fell far below standard.

providers at the arena and the emergency services. john died from injuries that he could and the inquiry found it was highly unlikely that the youngest

her parents, andrew and lisa roussos, watched the inquiry from their home in dorset. saffie fought that night, but unfortunately, she was let down, badly, badly let down. i believe in my heart that she would have survived had she been given the correct medical attention. the courage of individuals who went inside the foyer where the bomb exploded was praised. but time and again, the inquiry found fault with the blue light services. on occasions like this, the word sorry is at risk of sounding hollow. nevertheless, i want to make it clear that whilst our actions were well—intentioned, we apologise wholeheartedly for our failures. 0ur coordination of the response to this atrocity was poor. we had failed to plan effectively and the execution of that

which was planned was simply not good enough. we let the families and the public down in their time of need - and for that, i am truly sorry. the report revealed particular concerns about the past culture within greater manchester police. it is my view that the force tried to stick for too long to a corporate narrative that suggested it had acted effectively. this is sadly something we have seen in the aftermath of other disasters, and a pattern that keeps on repeating. of course, no prosecution or public inquiry can repair the pain caused that night or heal the loss felt by so many. but some of the families of those who died remembered here have told me there is value in this report if it leads to real change and prevents similar mistakes happening in future. philip tron could not have survived the injuries he suffered in the bombing.

his mother and uncle feel the report's1a9 recommendations are vital to prevent others suffering like they have. i am just hopeful that something changes, that nothing like this happens again, that they all get their act together, they get training and they know what they are doing. more importantly, there was over 100 recommendations for government bodies, you know, the home secretary. they are the ones that have got the clout to do things, the ones that have got the money. let's hope they take notice. amongst the measures which the inquiry wants to see is an improvement in joint emergency service training for terrorist incidents. firearms, ied, hospital knife. 0k, number of casualties? roughly 12 at the minute but it's ongoing. it's already under way in manchester, with exercises like this one in which firefighters and paramedics now learn together. move! they are using the kind of stretchers which were not available at the arena and are now being put

on every fire engine in the city. five years since the attack which claimed and blighted so many lives, the learning continues. this is the report that has been so long awaited, 1000 pages dedicated to analysing every aspect of the aftermath of the attack. i think it has been met here today with a mixture of hope and horror. horror because the chairman made it very clear that many of the mistakes he found had happened before, previous incidents or in training, and lessons hadn't been learned. hope, because those who are fed up of that mantra about learning lessons have said that this time, they are determined it will be different. the chairman says he will keep track of the recommendations he has made to ensure they are followed and the home secretary has also said she will look at them to improve the government's response to similar attacks. judith, thank you. now to the war in ukraine, and western officials say russian

troops could be preparing to withdraw from part of the city of kherson, which they have held since the start of the war. ukraine has been talking up an offensive to capture the city since the summer. but progress is slow and so far they've just retaken some surrounding farmland. kherson straddles both sides of the dnipro river. reports suggest russian commanders may be pulling troops back to the eastern side of the river, which is easier to defend. 0ur international editor jeremy bowen, cameraman fred scott and producer kathy long have spent the last few days on the front lines around kherson. in the trenches a mile or so from the russian perimeter around kherson, soldiers from the ukrainian 63rd brigade have learnt to be cautious. they're digging in for a long winter. "i love my dugout," he says. "it's going to be warm." this is the ground where months of optimistic talk from ukraine's leaders of a kherson offensive has

collided with the stark reality of pushing russia back. translation: moving forward - in a counteroffensive is complicated to plan for and it's a threat to people's lives. we have to take account of everything. that's ourjob as commanders, to keep our men alive. 0utside mykolaiv, the city facing occupied kherson, they don't believe the russians will fold. piles of used—up tank shells show how hard it's been. 0n the mykolaiv front, the soldiers say they don't have the combat power to match russia's numbers or heavy guns. translation: they've got more. military equipment, more people. their soldiers are not trained, theyjust charge forward, shouting. we don't have as many bullets as they have people.

you can see why the kherson offensive is taking a lot of time. it's flat, open ground. they're under the russian guns. gunfire. and this is what happens to them every day. that's why, since the summer, they've been talking about it, and it's hard to move forward. the ruins of mykolaiv�*s regional governor's office, destroyed early in the war, are a constant reminder of what russia can do. here as well, no one believes russia's defeat is inevitable. general dmytro marchenko, the commander credited with stopping the russian advance, now coordinates plans to recapture kherson.

translation: first of all, we need . reactive artillery that can hit up i to 300 kilometres from us, and we need an air defence system — basics for any army in the world that wants to go on the offensive. an enemy who can do this, the general believes, cannot be beaten without overwhelming force, which ukraine wants but does not have. clean water is trucked in to mykolaiv because russia blew up the waterworks. in the queue, someone said, "they can't bring us to our knees." defiance doesn't stop fear or anguish. "it's painful," says 0ksana. "everyone here is crying inside." they are worried too about doing this in winter, and the freeze. close by this week, russian missiles have hit civilian houses. one of the residents here was killed. people with very little

have lost everything. not much was left to salvage in this house. this woman has two sons in the army. "the russians were saying hello," she said, "then everything fell on my head." what is so difficult for people is the unpredictability of a strike that comes in the middle of the night when they think they're relatively safe at home. her neighbour, a firefighter used to rescuing others, was rescuing himself. translation: we can't stop fighting. we are on guard for our country. no one but us will protect it. i've faced this so many times. now it has come to my house. the main thing is that we are alive. everything else, we can start again. the pity of war envelops mykolaiv. the price of local victories that

keep the pressure on the russians. if it comes to a battle for kherson, the price and the pity rise sharply. jeremy bowen, bbc news, mykolaiv. you can hear more from jeremy later on bbc one, at 11:a0pm tonight and also on the iplayer. the bishop of oxford has become the most senior serving cleric to call for the church of england to start conducting same—sex weddings. the right rev steven croft also called for married gay christians to have "the freedom to be sexually active". 0ur religion editor aleem maqbool is here. how significant is this? it is very si . nificant how significant is this? it is very significant because _ how significant is this? it is very significant because steven - how significant is this? it is very significant because steven croft| how significant is this? it is very i significant because steven croft is one of the most senior members of the church of england, one of the 26 bishops that sits in the house of lords and as such, as you say, he has become the most senior member of the church of england to say that the church of england to say that the church should conduct same—sex

marriages and it should bless same—sex unions because at the moment, it doesn't. it does allow clergy to be in same—sex civil partnerships but only if they agree to be celibate in those relationships. as such, what the bishop of oxford is saying is that that kind of discrimination has been extremely hurtful and harmful in moving forward, as he sees it, on this issue, would only be a positive thing and i think part of the reason he has come forward to support gay marriage is that he hopes that other bishops will do the same because he sees silence as being extremely harmful as well. but the fact that he is only now becoming the first bishop to come out in support of same—sex marriage tells you that it is still some way off and it remains an extremely contentious issue in the church. an extremely contentious issue in the church-— the church. thank you for “oining us. the home secretary, suella braverman, has promised immediate action to improve facilities for those seeking asylum in the uk. it came as she visited two migrant processing centres in kent. the government has faced heavy criticism following reports of disease and overcrowding

at the sites. the former prime minister of pakistan, imran khan, has been shot and injured while leading a protest march in the east of the country calling for early elections. mr khan had been greeting supporters from the top of a lorry, as a convoy of vehicles made its way to the capital, islamabad. pakistan's president called it an assassination attempt, as samira hussain reports. thursday's protest march started like all the others, and then this happened. gunfire footage shared on social media, confirmed by the bbc, shows a conscious imran khan with a bandage on his right leg being taken to hospital. here, you can see a man with a gun. he was eventually caught. in a leaked video of his statement to police, he said he wanted to kill mr khan. the current prime minister condemned the attack and has called for an investigation. pakistan's president is calling it

an assassination attempt. but leaders from mr khan's political party released a statement on his behalf, accusing the country's prime minister, home minister and director of pakistan's powerful intelligence agency of being behind the attack, saying they must be removed from office. just two days ago, we were with the former prime minister at one of his protest rallies, where he says the government is against him. i am a democrat. democrats always go to the people. at the moment, the establishment is against us. the entire political parties, all of them are against us. he accuses the current government of a conspiracy that led to his ousting back in april. since losing his position as prime minister, his popularity has grown, and it's why he's pushing for fresh elections. he believes he can win. i have been in politics for 26 years.

never in pakistan's history has a party had so much public support as now, and along this route, you will see. it's never happened in pakistan. these demonstrations are a pressure tactic by mr khan's party to force the government to call an election, a cry the government has repeatedly said it would not heed. as news spread of the attack, so too did protests in several cities around the country. the apparent attempts to silence mr khan may only serve to give fresh momentum to his campaign. samira hussain, bbc news, islamabad. they are stunning spectacles at some of the world's most well—known sites — glaciers, like this one here at mount kilimanjaro. but due to climate change, they are melting, with large parts of glaciers being lost every year. this is how the one at kilimanjaro has changed in less than 20 years. today, the un warned that a third of all the glaciers in world

heritage sites will vanish by 2050. it means sites like this one in yosemite in the us, and this glacier in the alps will totally disappear within 30 years. dozens of leisure centres, swimming pools and gyms could be forced to close this winter as a result of soaring energy costs. public sector leisure services are likely to be cut in a0% of council areas over the next five months, according to the trade body, uk active. and the cost of living crisis means many people can no longer afford membership of fitness centres, as our sports news correspondent laura scott reports. lift it up. 0k, guys, well done. a lunchtime aqua aerobics class that means much more than simply exercise for this group of swimmers. for peter, whose wife has dementia, it's some precious time to himself. janet says it's vital for herjoints, while maureen says it helps her mental health. this class clearly means a lot to you, doesn't it?

well, i've been coming, what, ten years or more. peter's been coming 16. for us, it's physical. llt's just being with everybody else | and the mental side of it, and your health issues. i had a back operation. in november and this is what they told me to do. but rye sports centre is shutting the pool for the winter because energy bills have jumped by £92,000 a year. and there was a wave of emotion as it sunk in that this week's class was the last for a while — perhaps for ever. this was a vital lifeline for a lot of people, to keep them fit, to keep them healthy, to keep them moving. i know it's a money thing. i mean, i wish i could back it, scheme, the rest of the industry

is feeling the squeeze. services are expected to be cut in a0% of the uk's council areas in the next five months. and in three quarters of council areas, by the end of march 202a. i worry that this could create a major physical and mental health crisis in the country if we don't find solutions in the coming weeks. so this is as challenging if not a more challenging period than the pandemic was for many of my members. but of course, it's notjust the facilities that are facing challenging decisions this winter because of rising energy bills, it's the people who use them, and in many cases rely on them. so, one, two. nice. moving round... at the switch up boxing gym in mansfield, parents are grappling with how to make savings in every area of their lives. when winter comes, because of my disability, so i'll have to have the heating on a little bit more, and then it's just going to be difficult to bring him.

if you need to choose between food and sport, you'll get less to eat. eat less! as simple as that. stark decisions are already being made, as the affordability and accessibility of sport comes under increasing strain and authorities warn of a darker period ahead. laura scott, bbc news. and a glimmer of hope today for the young boxer paul you saw in that piece. after hearing his story on the bbc today, a viewer has come forward and offered to pay for him to continue boxing over the winter. time for a look at the weather. hello, it has been wet as we were discussing early for the start of november but perhaps something quieter as we go through tomorrow. we have got this bump of high pressure coming in and then as we see the satellite picture again, this is storm martin which is going

to usher in yet more wet and windy weather as we go through the weekend. some rather large waves