the us climate envoy, john kerry, is calling on richer countries to "step up" to help developing nations reduce their dependence on fossil fuels. now on bbc news, talking business. hello everybody, a very warm welcome to talking business weekly with me. let's take a look at what is on the show. china's leader xi jinping consolidates power and resets the super economy future. so what do the changes of the top mean for the global economy, the supply chain and relations with its biggest competitor the united states? two there they are. i'm going to be discussing all of that with these two there they are. so even the council of foreign relations and the big boss of that age group and former us diplomat in the region.

also on the show is global leaders meet in egypt for the cop 27 summit on the environment, what are the stakes are one of the most beautiful places on earth? i'm going to be asking the big boss of the caribbean development bank. wherever you arejoining me from around the world, once again a big hello and a warm welcome to the show. a power grab at the top of china's communist party has big consequences for the global economy. yet with war raging in europe, a cost of living crisis, surging interest rates on a global energy crisis, china's president xi jinping's consolidation of power at the 20th congress party could easily get a bit lost to make the noise. but, because china's critical place

in the global supply chain manufacturing and exporting and its growing power as a consumer and tourist powerhouse means that these changes are incredibly significant for the way that the world's economy is going to develop in the next few years. so with the benefit of a few weeks perspective, let's just take a look at what went down at the congress and what it means the global economy. underlying congress was president xijinping growing influence and power, president xijinping secured an unprecedented third term in office and at the same time he removed someone replacing him with someone more closely tied to himself. a lot of attention in the media was also focused on this moment. former president hu jintao seemingly being escorted from the hole before a key vote on the party's programme. all of this is for the first time in a generation questions

are starting to be asked about china's economic growth. among the most contentious issue is president's zero covid policy which is seen mass testing and lockdown well in big cities across china. certainly provoking some protest. and weighing on the economy further, a slowdown in china's property market. overall, the chinese economy grew by almost 4% in the past three months, that is lower than the official targets but still better than most western economies. and the fiscal deficit that is simply the difference between what the government takes in and what it spends has grown to an all—time high this year. reaching nearly $1 trillion in the first nine months of this year. that is three times higher than the same period last year. the market reaction, boy, it was swift. in the days after the congress, shares listed on the market, the main market in hong kong fell to 13 years lows. so what does all this means for the future of china's economy and importantly how will it impact on the rest of the global economy?

let's start with a fellow at the think tank, the council of foreign relations. zoe, a real pleasure having you on my show. thank you for your time. let's start with this because i am wondering what to the personal what do they tell us about the way decisions are likely to be made, because i'm i'm wondering all of the commentary is like centralising power and decision—making around president xijinping. thank you very much for having me on your show. it does look like president xijinping replaced a lot of those pro reform oriented to remind with his loyalists. he did not show that there is a major consolidation of power, especially people who loyal to president xijinping,

by putting himself in front of all of this decision—making, he basically reviewed that he is personally going to put a stand on major policy making is in china going forward. tell us about china's economic direction, is it going to be one that looks outward or one that looks inward? that is a great question. i would say that right now, again if we just look at the standing committee it feels like none of these people are particularly prone reform or pro open up, more specifically during president xi jinping's second term he has been talking about the so—called deal circulation a lot which means an emphasis on domestic circulation which is domestic consumption in the domestic market. so i interpret a lot of this movement as a departure from the previous going out strategy laid by hu jintao.nd on top of that combined

a departure from the previous going out strategy laid out by hu jintao. and on top of that combined with zero covid policy in. and more specifically the placement of the promotion of the man presided over shanghai's lockdown. none of these suggest that the new policymaker inside the party are particularly pro reform or pro opening up. and, as we know this zero covid it is a very controversial policy, impacting on the policy within china where we know there have been lockdown is major cities. but also on the world. keeping the chinese tourists at home, for example. on the show, just a few weeks ago i had the big boss of the radison hotel group he told me he doesn't think that that policy will stay, i am wondering, what did

the congress suggest? if i was a hotelier i would also want to see the zero covid policy being removed very soon. the party congress signalled the policy is probably unlikely to remove any time soon despite the immense socioeconomic costs. so xi jinping did say that by permanently implementing the zero covid pass the communist party has been able to maximise chinese people's life and health so by sticking with your home policy, xi jinping can't control china's interaction china's interaction with the rest of the world, from that perspective he can prepare the chinese people and the chinese

economy for the isolation if they were to impose sanctions. if war broke out in taiwan. there was as extraordinary, some would get say quite a sad moment when we saw hu jintao seeminglyjust lured away from the hall. what was your reading of that moment? he is the last of china's leader being appointed and chosen to lead china. the removal of him right at the closing ceremony of this party congress were xi jinping is getting confirmed as the unprecedented third term his loyal people were there. i consider that as putting an end to china's four decade movement towards a bigger degree or a higher degree of reform and opening up. a real pleasure having you on the show, thank you for your input and i will talk to you soon. what does all of this mean

the economic and political relations between the two biggest powers, china and united states. my next guest is the big boss of the asian group which offers client specific advice and operating and expanding on the region. he is also former us secretary of state for asia and affairs under president adviser. of state for asia and thanks of state for asia and for coming on the show, in 2009 thanks for coming on the show, in 2009 when you started at the state department you wrote a report calling china's rai is one of the most important geopolitical events in history and raise questions about how america should deal with it. do you think this third term of xi jinping changes things? you think this third term of xi jinping changes things? thank you for havin: jinping changes things? thank you for having me _ jinping changes things? thank you for having me on _ jinping changes things? thank you for having me on the _ jinping changes things? thank you for having me on the show - jinping changes things? thank you for having me on the show it - jinping changes things? thank you for having me on the show it is - jinping changes things? thank you for having me on the show it is a l for having me on the show it is a real pleasure. in some ways the recent party congress just shows that china's leader is very focused and determined to end crease china's

role in the international environment. as a result there is increasing pressure between china and united states and more competition between the two places. whether it's the academic spirit or militant spirit. and what we are seeing right now is structural redistribution of the china and united states relation. this will present much disorder in the months and years to come. you present much disorder in the months and years to come.— and years to come. you advise businesses _ and years to come. you advise businesses on _ and years to come. you advise businesses on entry _ and years to come. you advise businesses on entry and - and years to come. you advise - businesses on entry and expansion into china, i am wondering, will that a vice change given the developments over the last few weeks? in developments over the last few weeks? ., , developments over the last few weeks? . , ._ , developments over the last few weeks? . , , ., , developments over the last few weeks? . , , .,, . ., weeks? in many ways, it has changed but those changes _ weeks? in many ways, it has changed but those changes have _ weeks? in many ways, it has changed but those changes have been - but those changes have been occurring for a number of years. here there easy group, the number of companies that we work with the have really increased that thinking of where they start to diversify, not only investments but factories. really started about four to five years ago. so if we look about radical development strategy trends,

the evidence points to what china plus one module, yes, china seems to have leading edge in its manufacturing ecosystem, but for a variety of range we are seeing companies increase their overall capital investment in markets like india, vietnam, and thailand. all of those areas create opportunities and challenges were probably in many instances also lined with a changing geopolitical environment that is facing greater emphasis on diversification, particularly given a lot of the challenges we experienced during covid and the rush to increase supply chain diversity as well. [30 rush to increase supply chain diversity as well.— rush to increase supply chain diversity as well. rush to increase supply chain diversi as well. , ., ~ ., diversity as well. do you think that china's appearance _ diversity as well. do you think that china's appearance to _ diversity as well. do you think that china's appearance to be _ diversity as well. do you think that china's appearance to be more - china's appearance to be more closely aligned to russia in these times, do think that a significant? i think unequivocally it is significant. in my view it really demonstrates leadership in beijing that feels like it is better for its interest as well as interview in the antinational order to be aligned

with orthography is the have a very destabilising orientation not only to the international order but the us and allied interests around the world. ., , , ., world. former president trump and president biden, _ world. former president trump and president biden, they _ world. former president trump and president biden, they seem - world. former president trump and president biden, they seem to - world. former president trump and president biden, they seem to be l president biden, they seem to be quite hawkish on trade with china, how much is an issue is that according to international businesses looking to expand? that was a 2018 businesses looking to expand? t�*isgt was a 2018 phenomenon, in this way in time international businesses particularly those that are in the united states have ready—made determinations based on growing concerns with the national security about the prudence of continued investment in china. but if trade was phase one of the reorientation of the us corporate investor strategy, phase two really has accelerated the last three plus years, driven animated by concerns of china's intern and its concerns our national security. figs

of china's intern and its concerns our national security.— our national security. as china becomes _ our national security. as china becomes as — our national security. as china becomes as much _ our national security. as china becomes as much of - our national security. as china becomes as much of a - our national security. as china i becomes as much of a consumer our national security. as china - becomes as much of a consumer power is one of that manufacturing power, is one of that manufacturing power, is the economic balance changing. does the united states need china more than china needs the us? i5 does the united states need china more than china needs the us? is a difficult more than china needs the us? i3 —. difficult question. analytically you have to break it down. american consumers as we know enjoy access to cheap products that are manufactured principally in age and that helps us at the same time chinese companies and chinese government need access to highly advanced us technology in order to move their own economy so i think in the short term there continues to be a degree of mutual independence and demand that is probably being driven both by the consumers and also by the government in china that make that mediation and dislocation economically very difficult to be out to achieve are on par, i think the time particularly in areas that align once again with national security, the importance of self—reliance will

move more towards a subtle but clear points of differentiation and dislocation, particularly in technology and probably in pharmaceutical spaces. figs technology and probably in pharmaceutical spaces. as we know, covid threw — pharmaceutical spaces. as we know, covid threw global _ pharmaceutical spaces. as we know, covid threw global supply _ pharmaceutical spaces. as we know, covid threw global supply chains - covid threw global supply chains into absolute chaos, china's zero covid policy continues to disrupt trade and now it seems like it's going to look more internally for growth rather than globally, i am wondering, is the global child chain in the middle of a major realignment. my answer to that is that it realignment. my answer to that is thatitis realignment. my answer to that is that it is in the nature of a major realignment but it's a real i'm takes time. fist realignment but it's a real i'm takes time-— realignment but it's a real i'm takes time. �* ., takes time. at the end of the day in the two past _ takes time. at the end of the day in the two past decades, _ takes time. at the end of the day in the two past decades, global - the two past decades, global businesses supported trillions of dollars into the chinese economy. it is very hard for companies that have spent hundreds of millions if not and must have millions of dollars

building up world—class manufacturing capacity to unplug that overnight and to ship to a differentjurisdiction, the problem is when you look at where are the likely company is going to move in terms of different areas that have strong manufacturing capacity where there is a mexico or central america or in parts of southeast asia or india, those companies still lack behind in terms of the overall infrastructure and investment that the government had made in china to be able to allowed for that type of manufacturing capacity to be built at scale to service the global markets. though, at the end of the day realignment will take time if we look at it from a sector by sector basis, we have seen consumer electronics ship a lot more dramatically into parts of southeast asia, with vietnam being the biggest vector of that. and now we are seeing from logical projects really ship and accelerate in terms of being produced in india as well as a growing base in the us are onshore back the number of those manufacturing capacities, not necessarily because it is the best business decision but really because it does align more closely with what

people have come to understand on this covid environment. the governmentsjob fundamentally this covid environment. the governments job fundamentally is to that those risks are offset to having access to stable, reliable and domestic sets of capacities which is what i think we have seen trends, not only in the us but in large parts of western europe as well as a number of economies in the middle east as well as asia. you know i have _ middle east as well as asia. you know i have to _ middle east as well as asia. you know i have to ask _ middle east as well as asia. you know i have to ask you, if you were still in the state department, what would your advice be to the current administration? you would your advice be to the current administration?— would your advice be to the current administration? you know, mark now m main administration? you know, mark now my main focus _ administration? you know, mark now my main focus and _ administration? you know, mark now my main focus and advice _ administration? you know, mark now my main focus and advice to - my main focus and advice to colleagues in the administration is a, to keep up what you're doing because there is a keen focus on effort on keeping allies and partners, and understood unity on how we speak about our interest globally. the second is we are in a period of increased tension, there needs to be greater efforts to

improve dialogue between china and the us. in the height of the cold war, the us and the soviet union maintained dialogue and the means to prevent miscalculation and inadvertent magnetic acts that could create real crisis. and i think the state of communication and the stakes are high stop and now it is important for policy members to be able to ensure that space is being carved out for the channels and coordination are necessary to offset the harder and more difficult parts of the risk assessment. the third and last is to also identify confidence building efforts that do create points of trust. this is a generational challenge in the united states and china, but at the same time as hopi and optimise my view is that we should also be laying the seeds for the environment where there is a prospect of approach meant. accelerating this type of

strategic decision and accelerated over the past five years. for that you have got to find a way of identifying small things governments can do to try and create the right conditions, not only the these countries before the international order. let countries before the international order. ., , order. let me end on this, five ears' order. let me end on this, five years" time. — order. let me end on this, five years' time, the _ order. let me end on this, five years' time, the united - order. let me end on this, five years' time, the united states| order. let me end on this, five - years' time, the united states and china closer or further apart? further apart. i china closer or further apart? further apart.— china closer or further apart? further apart. i appreciate the answer. thank _ further apart. i appreciate the answer. thank you _ further apart. i appreciate the answer. thank you for - further apart. i appreciate the answer. thank you for your . further apart. i appreciate the l answer. thank you for your time further apart. i appreciate the - answer. thank you for your time much appreciated and i would check in with you soon.— with you soon. thank you, i appreciate _ with you soon. thank you, i appreciate it. _ with you soon. thank you, i appreciate it. as _ with you soon. thank you, i appreciate it. as world - with you soon. thank you, i i appreciate it. as world leaders with you soon. thank you, i - appreciate it. as world leaders are catherinu appreciate it. as world leaders are gathering to _ appreciate it. as world leaders are gathering to the _ appreciate it. as world leaders are gathering to the cop _ appreciate it. as world leaders are gathering to the cop 27 _ appreciate it. as world leaders are gathering to the cop 27 summit. appreciate it. as world leaders are gathering to the cop 27 summit to | gathering to the cop 27 summit to battle climate change, one of the places the impact of the climate emergency is felt most keenly is in the caribbean, storms that battered the caribbean, storms that battered the island infrastructure is co—bed battled its tourist economy. so how can these beautiful islands work its way through these difficulties and can the cop 27 summit make a

difference? i caught up with the big boss of the caribbean development bank. a real pleasure having you on my show. let start with this, caribbean countries are some of the most vulnerable to weather—related shocks, simply because of geographic location. just paint me a picture, just how bad is it? it location. just paint me a picture, just how bad is it?— just how bad is it? it can be very bad in two _ just how bad is it? it can be very bad in two ways. _ just how bad is it? it can be very bad in two ways. one _ just how bad is it? it can be very bad in two ways. one is - just how bad is it? it can be very bad in two ways. one is the - bad in two ways. one is the frequency at which it occurs, every year storms for example goes through the region from the west coast of africa across the caribbean and we have our annual hurricane and they range from tropical storms through to category five hurricanes which decimate countries as we speak equally now there is the climate issue. which as we know did not really originate in a sense of being

caused. by the small countries of the region. but he faced a larger brunt of the impact of climate change through the very vulnerabilities that we spoke of in regards to natural hazards. see you have the storms every year. but we have the storms every year. but we have the storms every year. but we have the pandemic like all of us in the world. how much was an impact on covid on the island and are you starting to recover? the impact was immense. let's first accept that it was notjust the reduction in output lockdowns that we can talk about, but the way it impacted lives relative to reduced incomes, education opportunities, inequalities even gender violence. the diminishing of the status of,

for example, women that typically head households, the reduction in livelihoods from the crash almost of the informal market structures that we... that we have. and in terms of recovery we have started, i wouldn't say we are recovered yet. the problem that we have in the region is our ability to recover takes a long time. and you're attending cop 27 in egypt. of course, that's the un's annual climate change convention. what are you hoping to achieve from that gathering? i wouldn't say me per se, but i would say the world is hoping for two things. one is that the prior commitments that the developed countries had made would begin to be honoured. we would like equally that the pledges with regard to mitigation and decarbonization are strengthened and not just strengthened in world,

but now strengthened indeed. so we can begin to narrow the gap towards reducing or capping the trajectory of climate increase, the temperature increases to at least give us a fighting chance to reach i.5%. we've already talked about the intensity and frequency of these hurricanes that hit us every year and therefore compromise that ability. but we do not have access now to finance, to be able to undertake the necessary adaptation and mitigation elements that we need. but, can i ask you this? isn't this part of your problem? i'm wondering, i mean, yes, the caribbean islands suffer from the consequences of climate change. and yet, as you've said, you emit very little in terms of emissions. but those islands are very heavily dependent on tourism. and those tourists, they have to fly there. they have to get there by ship. and you need that for the economies.

but you want to combat climate change. how do you balance that picture? well, let's first begin to recognize that the only transportation is not and doesn't have to be fossil fuel generated. i would flip this over and say, why can't we begin the match to have ships that are fueled either by solar, by water, by wind, by hydrogen. that will allow you to be able to transport notjust people, but goods across the globe. the same could hold for airplanes. so it is not the case. we already have electric cars, for example, on our roads. but it's not the case that transportation can only be through fossil fuels. and so when you make the point that we have tourism as a key product and for tourism to occur, you need to have transportation. it does not automatically mean

that that transportation has to be fossil fuel driven. yes but, but it is fossil driven at the moment, you know that. that yes but, but it is fossil driven at the moment, you know that. at the moment. the moment, you know that. at the moment- at — the moment, you know that. at the moment. at the _ the moment, you know that. at the moment. at the moment, - the moment, you know that. at the moment. at the moment, yes. - the moment, you know that. at the moment. at the moment, yes. youj moment. at the moment, yes. you can't suddenly — moment. at the moment, yes. you can't suddenly make _ moment. at the moment, yes. you can't suddenly make the _ moment. at the moment, yes. you can't suddenly make the shipping i can't suddenly make the shipping industry go fossilfree can't suddenly make the shipping industry go fossil free or the airline industry. yeah, but that is part of the long term need that we are talking about because the investment in that technology is equivalent to the same investments we are talking about when we say let's embrace renewables, because embracing renewables is not just only in your national space where you are seeing now factories need to be based on some form of renewables or transportation needs to be electrified. the entire integrated logistics network that facilitates trade across the entire world needs to be able to now explore. i'm not suggesting we go 100%, but explore. how can you reduce that footprint from your decarbonisation

by facilitating the very activity that you're looking to promote? and so i think these are some of the things we are talking about. yes, we need tourism, yes, we need to make it green tourism. but at the same time, we we need to make sure the bridge, the infrastructure, the integrated logistics are equally green. but i would go further, aaron. we as a nation do not have a comparative disadvantage in at least intellectual assets. and if we can reconvene those intellectual assets into an industrial chain, we can in principle create products and markets and even industries and for that matter, the whole development of economies that could be based upon knowledge creation services. and those in principle could actually allow us to not move away from tourism, but widen our economic

diversification, reduce that vulnerability that we are talking about, do it in a green way and help the planet at the same time and improve livelihoods within our countries. always a pleasure, my friend. thanks for your time and i'll check in with you soon. thank you, aaron. well, that's it for this week's show. i hope you enjoyed it. don't forget, you can keep up with the latest on our global economy on the bbc website or the smartphone app. you can also, of course, know did not really originate in a sense of being caused. follow me on twitter, tweet me, i'll tweet you back. you can get me at bbc aaron. thanks for watching. i'll see you soon. we have got low—pressure nearby once again and today has been particularly cloudy and wet that rain will clear and then we are looking through clear spells and

showers through tonight and tomorrow. this low—pressure has influenced weather and contains remnants of the hurricane. the showers will follow tomorrow. as we head into this evening temperatures in double figures in most of england and wales, the bonfire night it will remain cloudy and damp across the south—east, clear spells elsewhere. it will remain blustery and then showers will start to pile into north and western areas. meanwhile the rain in the south—east paps up and turns heavier for many down here. temperature wise, double figures in the south, still quite cool in the north but not as cool as it has been the last few nights. into sunday, sunday, area of low pressure lots of weather fronts and some ice about on the child so it's going to stay unsettled and rather windy. that rain will continue to affect south—east england and east anglia, it will be quite wet through the day here. elsewhere, it is brighter with sunny spells but also blustery showers, some of these merging together, some of them could

be heavy with some rumbles of thunder. blustery days for some of us, certainly windy across southern and western coast. 0n the plus side, it will be fairly mild temperature is 12 to ia celsius. as you move through sunday evening and night it stays pretty blustery, the heavy rain clears through the south—east but we continue to see all of the showers rattling in the southern and western areas. our area of low pressure with us into the start of the week, monday looks at settled once again. again, it's going to be pretty windy, showers and longer spells of rain, particularly across southern, central and western areas. we could see a little bit of sunshine later that day across the south—east but a windy day to come for all especially across the south—west around the irish sea coast. you will notice though, it is going to be pretty mild for the time of year up to around 15 or 16 celsius is the high. it will start to settle dean as he had put through the new week, signs of pressure

starting to move on. it will be a very mild for the time of year but it will remain rather cloudy.

this is bbc news. the headlines at a.00pm. extreme right—wing terrorist ideology was behind the firebombing of a migrant processing centre in dover last sunday, say the police. a �*disturbance' at a london immigration removalfacility during a power outage — with reports suggesting it was caused by the detainees. disruption on the railways, despite a series of strikes being called off by the unions. thousands of people gathered in seoul to remember the victims of last week's halloween crush — many are demanding the president resign. they're anti—government and they're affiliated with the main opposition party. now, really, it's more of a protest than a vigil. ajudge in the russian—occupied donetsk region of ukraine

who sentenced two british volunteer fighters to death is reportedly