the uk economy shrank by 0.2% in the three months to the end of september. it could mark the start of what could be the longest recession on record. the chancellor warns of a tough road ahead. what we need is a plan that shows how we are going to get through this difficult period, if it is a recession, how we make it shallower and quicker. also this lunchtime: the bbc finds nhs england spent three billion pounds on locum doctors, nurses and other agency staff last year — an increase of 20% — to fill holes in rotas. we're all in a relatively shallow pool of staff. until we address the longer term challenges around the workforce, it is always going to be

a bit hand to mouth. pictures posted on social show damage to the bridge used by russian troops to cross back over the dnipro river as moscow says it's withdrawn from the key southern ukrainian city of kherson. people across the uk observe a two—minute silence... ..to remember those who have died in military conflicts. after decades of work — the amateur film—making club finally getting the red carpet treatment after nine decades. and coming up in sport on the bbc news channel. england's red roses prepare for their rugby union world cup final, having won their past 30 tests — can they beat the hosts new zealand? good afternoon and welcome to the bbc news at one. the uk economy shrank betweenjuly and september, confirming what many economists and the bank of england believe to be the start of a recession.

it contracted by 0.1% as households and businesses were hit by soaring prices, higher energy bills and rising interest rates. britain is not officially in recession yet — that happens when the economy shrinks for two three—month periods in a row. in the previous three months — april tojune, the economy saw growth of 0.2%. but it's expected that we will have gone into recession by the end of the year and the bank of england has already predicted it could be the longest on record. has already predicted it could be here's our business correspondent andy verity. this manufacturer in walsall in the black country mix harnesses and cables for ambulances, cars and electric vehicles. it is a growth business that opened its second factory but it is struggling with the cost of components and raw materials which has been surging, one of the reasons businesses is being held back. we one of the reasons businesses is being held back.— being held back. we work with customers _ being held back. we work with customers and _ being held back. we work with customers and we _ being held back. we work with customers and we look- being held back. we work with customers and we look at - being held back. we work with customers and we look at our| customers and we look at our efficiencies, look at the

opportunities we've got to increase output and increasing output might mean the only standstill, but in the current climate, that is the best possible outcome. how is this going... figs possible outcome. how is this anoin... r . ., possible outcome. how is this anoin... a . ., ., going... as much of the world economy _ going... as much of the world economy slowing, _ going... as much of the world economy slowing, the - going. .. as much of the world economy slowing, the car- going... as much of the world - economy slowing, the car makers making up the customers of this company, saw the manufacturing sector down by 2.2% over summer, the sharpest drop in over four decades. all subsectors of manufacturing fell in three quarters and that didn't even happen at the height of the pandemic. you have to go back to the 19805 pandemic. you have to go back to the 1980s for the last time it happened, over a0 years ago. they are telling us they are struggling with price pressures, global supply chains and labour supply. pressures, global supply chains and labour suoply-_ pressures, global supply chains and labour supply-— pressures, global supply chains and labour supply. normally if you enter a recession — labour supply. normally if you enter a recession that _ labour supply. normally if you enter a recession that means _ labour supply. normally if you enter a recession that means householdsl a recession that means households and businesses spending less. governments tend to try and offset that by spending more themselves over central banks cut interest rates. at this time, preoccupied with inflation, they are doing the

opposite. the government is reining in spending and central banks are raising interest rates. many economists fear that could make this recession worse than it would otherwise be. as the post—brexit uk economy shrank by zero 20% in the third quarter, it began the recession in 100 years is the only one of the g7 group of economies that still hadn't recovered to its pre—pandemic level. that still hadn't recovered to its pre-pandemic level.— that still hadn't recovered to its pre-pandemic level. according to the international— pre-pandemic level. according to the international monetary _ pre-pandemic level. according to the international monetary fund, - pre-pandemic level. according to the international monetary fund, around | international monetary fund, around a third of the well�*s economy is in recession this year all will be next year. and that is principally, but not entirely because of high global energy prices. we are not immune to that in the uk and what we need is a plan that shows how we are going to get through this difficult period. the tax giveaways by the conservatives in their last budget caused _ conservatives in their last budget caused huge damage, but at the last 12 years _ caused huge damage, but at the last 12 years of— caused huge damage, but at the last 12 years of a stagnant economy with barely— 12 years of a stagnant economy with barely any— 12 years of a stagnant economy with barely any economic growth. we need to stabilise _ barely any economic growth. we need to stabilise the economy but then

have a _ to stabilise the economy but then have a plan for growth. what counts in any party's _ have a plan for growth. what counts in any party's plans _ have a plan for growth. what counts in any party's plans is _ have a plan for growth. what counts in any party's plans is what - have a plan for growth. what counts in any party's plans is what the - have a plan for growth. what counts in any party's plans is what the top i in any party's plans is what the top priorities. if it is to be his public finances and head off inflation with spending cuts and higher taxes on top of high interest rates, that may not be compatible with the other aim all party say they share, to make the recession as short and shallow as possible. andy verity, bbc news. 0ur economics editor faisal islam joins me. we appear to be inching closer to a recession? , ., , ~ , we appear to be inching closer to a recession? , ~ , ., recession? yes, as andy said and as ou said recession? yes, as andy said and as you said at — recession? yes, as andy said and as you said at the _ recession? yes, as andy said and as you said at the start, _ recession? yes, as andy said and as you said at the start, one _ recession? yes, as andy said and as you said at the start, one quarter. you said at the start, one quarter over the summerfrom july over the summer from july to september where the economy fell. actually, it was expected it would fall further than zero 20%, if you are a glass half full, you might think it is better than expected. it is the news going on from that right now, over the next year. the expectation from the bank of england and others that will see continuing quarters of economic contraction. the economy getting smaller and smaller. that is what would signal

that we are now in a recession and that we are now in a recession and thatis that we are now in a recession and that is the concern. as you heard, the balancing act notjust the households in terms of what they spend and what they save, but also the bank of england in terms of inflation versus growth and where they put interest rates and the government ahead of its autumn statement next week.— statement next week. other big economies _ statement next week. other big economies seem _ statement next week. other big economies seem to _ statement next week. other big economies seem to be - statement next week. other big economies seem to be doing - statement next week. other big - economies seem to be doing better. there have been positive responses in the market?— in the market? yes, if you look at the g7, in the market? yes, if you look at the g7. the _ in the market? yes, if you look at the g7, the major _ in the market? yes, if you look at the g7, the major economies - in the market? yes, if you look at l the g7, the major economies across the g7, the major economies across the world, you can look at the quarter and it happens to be weak are the only country that has fallen. probablyjust one quarter. if you look at the trend from the end of 2019 to before the pandemic, the past three or four years, just before brexit, you dc it is only the uk that hasn't of the economy that was there just before the pandemic. the americans have gone up a%,

french up nearly 2%. there is something going on there over the past three orfour years something going on there over the past three or four years which is uk specific. having said all of that, there are signs from around the world literally in the past 2a hours we might starting to be turning the corner. some of the inflation caused after the pandemic by supply chains coming up, could it be turning round? we saw some of that in the us inflation figures and in china itself, they are approaching it slightly more liberally, this issue of covid. perhaps they will keep ports and the like open and that led to a massive rise in the hong kong stock exchange of a percent overnight. stock exchange of a percent overnight-— stock exchange of a percent overniaht. . ~ ,, , . the former chancellor kwasi kwarteng says he warned liz truss to "slow down" after september's ill—fated mini—budget that triggered turmoil on the financial markets. in his first interview since he was sacked he also says he told ms truss she would be "mad" to fire him. 0ur political correspondent iain watsonjoins us. so is he saying the mini budget is

all liz truss's fault and not his? it does seem to bring to mind a phrase by president kennedy that success has 100 fathers, but failure is an orphan. because conservative mps are moving at speed to distance themselves from the many busted but themselves from the many busted but the very chancellor who delivered the very chancellor who delivered the mini budget seems to be doing the mini budget seems to be doing the same thing. he said i am not washing my hands a bit, but his comments suggest it was liz truss' hands that were all over it. he suggested she was pushing radical measures through parliament far too quickly and that he was warning her of the consequences of doing too much, too soon. i said actually after the budget, because we were going very fast, even after the mini—budget we were going at breakneck speed. and i said, you know, "we should slow down, slow down." and what did she say? she said well, "i've only got two years." and i said, "you'll have two months if you carry on like this." and that's, i'm afraid, what happened.

interesting that kwasi kwarteng was talking about slowing the pace after the mini budget. just two days after he delivered it, he told the bbc that essentially there were more tax cuts to come, presumably unfunded tax cuts at that. he also mentioned it was a mad of liz truss to sack him as chancellor. i'm not sure the current chancellorjeremy hunt would agree. when he was told about kwasi kwarteng's remarks, he said unless people had a plan to bring debt down, the markets would react badly and the country had to show it could pay its way. he brings forward his own plans on november the 17th. they will be nothing like the mini budget, but that doesn't mean to say they will be popular. he said today, he will have to make eye watering the difficult decisions on tax and spending. the difficult decisions on tax and sendina. . ~ the difficult decisions on tax and sendina. ., ~ i. the difficult decisions on tax and sendina. ., ~ , the difficult decisions on tax and sendina. ., ~' , . the difficult decisions on tax and sendina. ., ~ , . ., spending. thank you very much, ian watson in westminster. _ the nhs is spending billions of pounds each year on freelance doctors, nurses and other health workers, often paying premium rates to fill vacancies.

an investigation by the bbc found that this type of spending is increasing dramatically across the uk. last year agency staff cost £3 billion in england alone. this is the same cost as hiring around 50,000 full—time nurses. here's our health reporter chloe hayward. we have had to use more agency staff, unfortunately, and that comes with a cost. hospitals around england are struggling to fill rotas. we have seen an increase in people leaving. there's no doubt that one of the reasons is around more money. with wards already full, more doctors and nurses are needed, and expensive agency workers are often the only way to fill staffing gaps. we're all fishing in a relatively shallow pool of staff, so until we address the longer term challenges around workforce, it's always going to be a bit hand—to—mouth. 0n the ward in colchester hospital... i will be responsible for staffing for the whole of the site today. ..andy seal is in charge of filling rotas and knows these challenges all too well.

yesterday as an example, i thought my emergency department was nice and safe for the evening and a couple of hours before we had a couple of people call in sick and then immediately that changes things. overall, the nhs in england spent more than £3 billion on agency staff in the last year. that's up 20% on the year before. and agency spending is also rising in other parts of the uk. in scotland it has doubled in the past year, while in wales it has risen by over a0%. in northern ireland it is four times higher than it was three years ago. with so many hospital budgets already very stretched, difficult decisions are now being made. i think the nhs has been trying to find greater efficiencies for a long, long time. but when i talk to clinical leaders, they're really, really nervous that they're going to have to make some really hard choices if they're going to stay in their budgets. and those hard choices will be things like reducing the number of staff they use. 0r reducing the number of beds that they have in hospital. and you can see those are really

going to have an impact on the quality and access to patient care. improving staff retention could play a key part when it comes to reducing agency spend. so now trusts around the country are taking steps such as improving rota flexibility, offering wellbeing sessions and launching mental health days. but for now, it ultimately comes down to flexibility and money. a junior doctor can triple his hourly rate if he works for agency versus being on an nhs contract. i wouldn't consider taking the shift if it wasn't paying the market rate, which would be around £50 to £60. i'd absolutely love to go back to being a staff member. it's mainly about the pay. sometimes you'll only be able to book a shift for two, three, four days a week. and you'll be very transient in the department. you won't know who the consultants are, the other members of staff, and it can sometimes affect the working dynamic, because you're just seen as a replaceable agency worker.

the department of health says a long—term workforce plan is coming, but for now, nhs trusts around england are left with little choice but to allocate more and more of their budgets on paying growing staff bills rather than providing front—line services. chloe hayward, bbc news. an inquiry into an incident at a hotel housing asylum seekers in glasgow in which one person died and six were injured says it was an avoidable tragedy. injune, 2020, a sudanese man, badreddin abdalla adam, was shot dead by police after he stabbed six people. an independent panel found it happened because of a poorly planned decision by the company managing asylum seekers in scotland to move them out of rented accommodation during the pandemic. activists from the group just stop 0il have announced they are halting their protests on the m25. drivers have faced four days of delays and disruption on the motorway. just stop 0il says the pause will allow the government to "consider its responsibilities".

the ukrainian army claims it has made major gains around the southern city of kherson. it comes as russia's defence ministry says it has moved its troops from the western bank of the dnipro river. moscow has described the situation as a "manoeuvre", rather than a withdrawal. one of the main bridges connecting kherson to the russian—controlled section of the dnipro river also appears to have been damaged. footage posted on social media in ukraine shows part of it has fallen away. in a moment we'll talk to our ukraine correspondent catherine byaruhanga in kyiv but first our russia editor steve rosenberg joins me. and, steve, what's moscow saying? according to the russian defence ministry, orders have been carried out and this partial withdrawal of russian forces from kherson region has now been completed. that includes from the city of kherson.

why is this significant? kherson city was the only ukrainian provincial capital that the russians had managed to capture and occupy since invading ukraine on february the 2ath. several weeks ago, president putin claimed to have annexed kherson region and three other ukrainian territories, insisting they would be russian for ever. these events are quite embarrassing for vladimir putin. his spokesman today said something interesting, i think. spokesman today said something interesting, ithink. he spokesman today said something interesting, i think. he underlined the decision to retreat had been taken by the military. i have nothing more to add, he said. i think there is a reason he did not want to add anything else. it is clear at the kremlin has been trying to distance itself from the decision to distance itself from the decision to retreat, because the kremlin knows there are many people in russia who will see this withdrawal as a major blow to russian prestige, as a major blow to russian prestige, as a major blow to russian prestige, as a setback and as an embarrassment, to, for the country.

now the russian state media has been pushing the line that this was a difficult decision, the decision to withdraw. but it was a necessary one strategically and the tv talk shows on state television have been urging russians to back the army, backed the president, not to criticise the kremlin and they have been encouraging viewers to seek scapegoats abroad, blaming nato, america and the eu. catherine byaruhanga in kyiv, what is ukraine saying about the situation? well, the message from ukrainian officials here in kyiv is that they are focused on the military advice and we keep hearing about new towns, new settlements, that their troops are taking from russian patrol. when it comes to the statement from moscow today, we spoke to an adviser to the ministry of defence and he said they could not take it at face

value, they are not sure whether they can trust such a statement from moscow. their expectation is that evenif moscow. their expectation is that even if there is a russian retreat from kherson city, it would take several days to come into effect. that is because you had thousands of troops, hundreds of military equipment in kherson city, and it will take time for it to cross the river and onto the eastern bank where they hold more territory. we also heard today of a key bridge across the river being damaged. the russians say they destroyed it as they withdrew. but ukraine has targeted this bridge in the past, trying to cut off russian supplies. we are also hearing from witnesses in kherson city right now, some are saying there are still russian troops in the city. remember this key bridge has been cut off and these troops are stuck and they are coming underfire these troops are stuck and they are coming under fire from these troops are stuck and they are coming underfire from ukrainian forces. this looks like a potentially messy retreat by the

russian forces as ukrainians advance kherson city. russian forces as ukrainians advance kherson city-— kherson city. thank you very much indeed. our top story this lunchtime... the uk economy shrank by 0.2% betweenjuly and september. analysts predict this could be the start of a two—year long recession. and coming up, british military veterans return to the falkland islands for remembrance sunday a0 years after the conflict with argentina. coming up in sport on the bbc news channel... we look ahead to the men's t20 world cup final in melbourne on sunday where heavy rain is threatening to disrupt england's match against pakistan. across the uk many fell silent at 11 o'clock this morning for two minutes to mark the anniversary of the end of the first world war. armistice day services have been

taking place across the uk to remember those who have died in military conflicts. this year's commemorations included the recently restored big ben striking 11 times. 0ur correspondent nicholas witchell reports. 10a years since the original armistice day, the striking of the 11th hour on the 11th day of the 11th month is still regarded by many as the most solemn moment of national remembrance. ben ben strikes the hour.

after the two—minute silence at the national memorial arboretum a poem was read in tribute to the late queen. the country loaded its whole self into your slender hands. hands that can rest now relieved of a century's weight. and at the cenotaph in london, wreaths were laid, precursor to remembrance sunday when king charles will lead the nation's tribute to those who lost their lives in war. nicholas witchell, bbc news.

a0 years on from the falklands war, a group of uk veterans have returned to the islands for the first time to mark remembrance sunday. more than 250 british military personnel died in the conflict, which was the culmination of the long—standing dispute with argentina over the sovereignty of the falkland islands. 0ur defence correspondent jonathan beale reports from the falklands. san carlos bay today, a picture of peace and tranquility. but a0 years ago, this was known as bomb alley, with argentine jets attacking a british task force sent to liberate these islands on the other side of the world. you see that really grainy footage now, but it takes you right back. planes screaming through here

and everybodyjust shooting at it. it was wild. gary marshall and mark white were here in may 1982 in the first wave of the assault. this is the first time they've returned, and it's bringing back painful memories. they came over the hill, two pucaras, and dropped the bombs onto the actual refrigeration plant. we lost quite a few guys in that and one of them was aaron's uncle paul. he was wounded during the attack and he subsequently died of his wounds on the 10th ofjune, you know, four days before the end of the actual conflict itself. so, sad. some of their comrades who never came back, never lived to tell the tale, now lie in this small cemetery. jackie giffin has come to remember her brother. brett patrick giffin was one of the first casualties of the war,

killed when his helicopter was shot down. he was buried at sea. there is no grave forjackie to visit. for her, there'll always be a void. but this trip has provided comfort. coming here and meeting people, ex—soldiers that were there, has meant an awful lot because it was real. and they say, "oh, i know him and i knew him," and "oh, i remember the gazelles went down," and, yeah. so that's very sort of reassuring. very comforting in a strange way. the distance of time may have made these islands even more remote to many, but the british forces who fought here are still living with this conflict, a war which, though painful, they still believe was just. jonathan beale, bbc news, the falkland islands. a ship carrying more than 200

migrants has docked at the french port of toulon after being denied entry by italy. the two countries disagree about who should accept the ocean viking. france has described italy's refusal as unacceptable. those on board the ship were rescued at sea off the coast of libya. counter—terrorism officers in belgium are leading the investigation into the fatal stabbing of a police officer near a railway station in brussels. the suspect shouted god is greatest during a knife attack. a second officer was stabbed but survived. former us president donald trump has lashed out at florida governor ron desantis, as the rivalry between the two top republicans continues to simmer. mr trump said his former political apprentice was an "average" governor, lacking in "loyalty". mr desantis won a landslide re—election in tuesday's midterms. he is widely expected to run for the party's 202a white house nomination.

a court in scotland has ruled that a man who claimed he was a victim of mistaken identity is the suspect in a series of sex crimes in the united states. the us authorities says that nicholas rossi had multiple aliases and had faked his own death before going on the run to escape prosecution. this report from our scotland correspondent lorna gordon reports contains flashing images. is this nicholas rossi, a fugitive from justice who faked his own death, or as he claims, arthur knight, a victim of mistaken identity? i'm arthur knight. and this is my wife, miranda knight. now, coverage you can count on. the man prosecuted... in america, where mr rossi is wanted by the authorities, the hearing has been making headlines. the court in edinburgh has heard fantastical claims. the 35—year—old said there was an extensive plot to frame him and that he had been given distinctive tattoos matching those on mr rossi while he was lying unconscious in a hospital in glasgow receiving treatment for covid.

thejudge disagreed and said the claims were implausible and fanciful. i am ultimately satisfied on the balance of probabilities by the evidence of fingerprints, photographic, and to evidence taken and tattoo evidence taken together, supported by the evidence of changes of name that mr knight is indeed nicholas rossi, the person sought for extradition by the united states. a woman rossi was found guilty of assaulting while a student in ohio described him as a liar and said she was convinced throughout as to his true identity. his eyes and just that dark hair, the hands, you know, i remember those hands, you know, because they assaulted me, they violated me. i mean, to me, i didn't have a doubt. he is trying to fool everybody and i am glad so many people see through it. rossi is facing multiple sex crimes charges in the united states, charges he denies. i have many flaws but to call me a rapist is so out of this world

and so unexpected that it is almost comical to think that... ..someone were to call that to me. these have been legal proceedings that nicholas rossi with his extraordinary claims and eccentric behaviour has attempted to turn into a circus. they have been more twists in this than in many works of fiction. with his identity confirmed, rossi will now face the next extradition hearing when scottish courts will decide whether to send him back to the united states to stand trial on the allegations against him. lorna gordon, bbc news, edinburgh. "it's taken me 86 years to get fame." those are the words of one member of what could be britain's oldest amateur film—making club which, after many decades, has itself made it to the big screen. the documentary is about the bradford movie makers and our arts correspondent david sillito went to see it. they are a group of keen

amateurfilm—makers. the bradford movie makers, they have been making films since 1932 with lots of enthusiasm, but not a lot of success. however, things have changed. i would like to remake 0klahoma where i am riding a white stallion. the film a bunch of amateurs is a documentary about the club. it tells the story of people like harry... # oh, what a beautiful morning...#. ..here doing his version of oklahoma. and the documentary has been getting rave reviews. harry has been all over. you've been to bafta. i've been to bafta, i've been to london twice in this last week. are you getting used to the showbusiness lifestyle?

colin has been a memberfor more than 50 years and this is his first premiere. this is more my line, you know. it's cine, you know. oh, it's dropped out again. this is a special day for you. yeah, oh, yeah. i'm looking forward to it, yeah. but this is about more than just a hobby. a lot of the members are carers. the idea of the film began whenjoe, a disability support volunteer, posted a message online about loneliness and isolation. you talk about very personal things in this, depression. oh, yeah, i've had that for many years, for my sins. in filming i can actually show the story of my life on film if i wanted. i think what happens in this film, we are all going to get old,

we are all going to be looking for something to do with our minds, we are all going to be looking for a community, we may lose our loved ones, and i think this club is like an amazing alternative family. it's five, everybody. and then there is the main event, the hometown gala premiere. in 90 years of movie—making, there have been no glamorous premieres, many ups and downs, so today for the bradford movie makers it's quite a moment. applause. david sillitoe, bbc news, bradford. time for a look at the weather, here's ben rich. why is it so unseasonably warm? well, as so often with our whether it is down to the jet stream, at

least in part. thejet it is down to the jet stream, at least in part. the jet stream running to the west