hello, i'm karishma vaswani, in bali. i met the 620 as events in europe threatened to overshadow the event. — — i am at. poland is putting some of its military on heightened alert after two people were killed by an explosion near the border with ukraine. the polish president says he thinks it's a one—off incident. the explosion in poland happened during a wave of russian missile attacks on ukraine's energy system. but moscow has hit back at reports it was responsible for the explosion inside poland, calling them a provocation

aimed at escalation. eu leaders attending the 620 summit here in bali are likely to meet in the coming hours to discuss the latest developments. hello and welcome to the programme from here, in bali, where the annual 620 summit is continuing. discussions today were to be focused on ukraine but they have been overshadowed by the confict itself. and the digitisation of the global economy. there are reports that two people in poland, a nato country, have been killed by missiles, in a village close to the border with ukraine. the polish foreign ministry says the missile was russsian—made, and has called in the ruussian ambassador.

the polish president, andzej duda, speaking, says the strikes may have been a one—off incident and won't happen again. nevertheless, he said poland will likely trigger article 4 of the nato agreement. all of this comes as russian forces launched waves of missile strikes across a wide area of ukraine, targeting power stations, in one of the biggest co—ordinated attacks by the russians since the start of the conflict. ukraine's public broadcaster reported that the strikes had targeted kyiv and the wider region, as well as kharkiv, poltava, mykolaiv, dnipro, lviv, cherkassy, 0desa and chernihiv. the strikes follow russia's retreat from kherson and the west bank of the dnipro river last week. in a moment, we'll be hearing from our correspondent in russia, plus we'll hear how this is playing out at the 620 summit here in bali. we start with this report by our international editor, jeremy bowen, who's in 0desa in southern ukraine. in the hours after the missiles hit, it wasn't clear whether the deadly events just inside the polish border

were a deliberate attack or something else. perhaps a targeting error or a missile malfunction. russian�*s defence ministry denied any involvement, calling it a deliberate provocation aimed at escalation. poland's national security council went into emergency session. the poles are coordinating with nato. working out exactly what happened is vital. the north atlantic treaty says an attack on one member is an attack on the whole alliance. translation: because of the seriousness of the situation i that we're dealing with, the president has just finished a conversation with the nato secretary—general. we are verifying the circumstances under which we might invoke article 4. it follows a day of missile attacks on ukraine, one of the biggest since the war began. there were strikes across the country — this was kyiv. most of ukraine's major cities were hit.

attacking the infrastructure of the city is a common tactic in war, trying to pressure a government by making the lives of civilians hard. translation: i am against the war and people have to remember that you can't give life back. those children who will never see their parents again, the children who will never be born — a generation is being lost. ukraine's president zelensky called for action. translation: this is a russian attack on collective security and a very significant escalation. we must act. i want to say now to our polish brothers and sisters, we stand with you. free people will not be broken by terror. this evening in kyiv, emergency services were still at work. what happened here and across the country and what seems to have been a deadly

leakage of the war into poland amounts to a challenge of the highest order for western leaders. they need exact details and, if necessary, an appropriate response. the attacks on ukraine come a day after president zelensky went to kherson to celebrate its recapture. he declared that defeat here was the beginning of the end for russia in ukraine. the triumphant visit to kherson was followed by severe diplomatic condemnation of russia at the 620 meeting. russia's answer, more likely by design than coincidence, was the day of missile strikes. jeremy bowen, bbc news, 0desa. i want to remind you of some of those lines from poland, which says it does not have any conclusive evidence as to who launched the missile that landed in the polish village near the ukraine border killing two civilians. earlier on, we

had this report. this is exactly what people in the east of poland had feared right at the start of the war. when i was reporting here at the beginning of the conflict through the early weeks during march, particularly, people in this city and closer to the ukraine border were really worried about that conflict spilling over, either deliberately or accidentally. we saw more poles signing up for the territorial defence force. we saw them preparing for in case there were attacks that came across onto their territory. we saw people packing their cars, packing clothes, ready to flee further west. now, the tension has eased after the early weeks of the invasion. that threat hasn't materialised, but this will cause serious concern because whatever is behind this, whatever�*s caused it, whatever sort of accident has occurred here, we assume that means there has been at least a fragment of missiles which have landed on polish territories and taken lives. that will confirm

people's worst fears, whether it was intentional or not. the conflict in ukraine has got the potential to spill over and to cause issues here in poland, which is nato. this is very close to the spot wherejoe biden landed at the beginning of april in air force one. that was a show of support for the polish people, for people right across eastern europe who were concerned at that time, a show of support for nato, a message that nato would be with these nations that border ukraine, should the conflict spill out of that country. now, these reports are unconfirmed — we need to say that. we need to find out exactly what has happened, what has caused this loss of life, but it will cause major concern to people here. life is still going on here in krakov and the cities around this part of poland tonight, but this is news that will concern people. it does show that the conflict has got the potential to spill over the borders and to cause damage and loss of life in poland,

a nato country. for more on russia's response to the strikes in poland, here's the bbc�*s steve rosenberg, who is in moscow. russia has described claims as provocation. ukraine has dismissed allegations of its own responsibility for this as a russian conspiracy theory. many different views and opinions. the message from moscow is one big denial, which is the normal reaction you get from the russian authorities whenever they accused of something. so, tonight, the defence ministry issued a short statement in which it claimed that reports of alleged russian missiles falling in poland was a deliberate provocation aimed at escalation. the statement also claimed that there had been no strikes using russian weapons on targets near the ukrainian—polish border — although of course we know

there was this massive russian bombardment today across ukraine. at times like this, at times of crisis — and this is a dangerous moment — what you need are channels of communication between the opposing sides. you need one side to be able to pick up the phone and talk to the other. we know relations are bad between russia and the west, nato and america, but these channels of communication do exist, and only yesterday, russia's spy chief met his us counterpart, the cia director, for talks. reportedly, they talked about how to avoid nuclear escalation here in the ukraine war. so, you would expect that these kind of moments, conversations would be had — you would hope so —

between russia and the west to find out what actually happened tonight and to avoid further escalation. that was steve rosenberg talking about how no—one wants an escalation. we can speak to our news reporter azadeh moshiri who's in our studio in london. we're getting reports that leaders of the 67 group of democracies are arranging an emergency meeting on wednesday in response to the missiles landing in poland, japan's kyodo news agency has reported. what more can you tell us? there was meant to be a meeting between the uk and japan. that has been postponed now given the emergency meeting of the g7. the emergency meeting of the 67. it is worth reminding the

audience that the 67 comprises seven of the world's largest economies. including the united states, united kingdom, germany, italy, france, japan and canada. and i have met several times this past year to discuss the invasion of ukraine and collective responses. it is also worth mentioning that russia did join the 67, used to be the 68 in 1998, but it was suspended from the gathering and the group after its invasion of crimea in 2014. it is a meeting of the west and japan. right now it only that after an event that is potentially a very big one, they would meet to discuss how they would meet to discuss how they would meet to discuss how they would co—ordinate a response. it is not the only emergency meeting. there is likely, though not confirmed, likely, though not confirmed, likely to be a meeting of the nato leaders and members as well. we do know that there

will also be a european union meeting as well. i will also be a european union meeting as well.— will also be a european union meeting as well. i can imagine at to- meeting as well. i can imagine at to of meeting as well. i can imagine at tap of the — meeting as well. i can imagine at top of the agenda _ meeting as well. i can imagine at top of the agenda will - meeting as well. i can imagine at top of the agenda will be i at top of the agenda will be what kind of response should be formulated? we are already hearing from poland that it is thinking of invoking article four. forthe thinking of invoking article four. for the benefit of the audience, explain the significance of that and the difference between article four and article five?— and article five? nha meeting and article five? nha meeting and the articles _ and article five? nha meeting and the articles that _ and article five? nha meeting and the articles that could - and article five? nha meeting and the articles that could be l and the articles that could be triggered by this event are very because while the 67 very because while the g7 leaders in that meeting will of course will cover security, part of its mandate, nato is a military alliance. article four is triggered when one member decides to discuss whether its territorial integrity, political independence or security has been threatened. that meeting in of itself is extremely significant that is why poland is likely to convene it, has said it will convenient

and will certainly need to and has preparing for that. they have not led so—so close to the event because it the first step that could then lead to article five. although the message that poland is sending right now is that they are staying calm and whatever they are doing, they are not looking to escalate this. article five is a big one. the first time it was triggered was after 9/11 and it's a principle of collective defence. if one of the members, nato members, is attacked, they consider that an attack on all nato members and they must stand together and show solidarity. what that solidarity. what that solidarity would look like is not clear and it could have a very big impact on the trajectory of the war and how big a conflict it could become. we're getting comments from the international community. heard through tweet from the british

prime minister earlier today and this coming in from chris mason, my colleague, who was also in bali, he was saying at the 620 summit, everyone's plans has been upended by these events in poland and he says that everyone has been on the phone with defence ministers and foreign ministers, talking to poland. 6ive and foreign ministers, talking to poland. give us a sense of what else we are hearing from the international community. you have commented so far? president zelensky has, the president of ukraine and as you say, the 620 meeting has been a upended and he has said in his own way that this act by russia as it accuses russia of being responsible for this event, is a slap in the face of the 620. he says this is what ukraine has been warning all along, that this war, this conflict, was never going to be confined to their territory, that it would spill over to countries

that are also at threat, like ukraine, and therefore a bigger response and support is needed from the west and allied countries to ukraine. as far as other world leaders, like poland, they are very much tempering their language and talking about the fact that investigations are being held, they want to find out what the facts are but either way, they are sending their condolences and concern and support to poland. the presidents of france, the united states, have all said they have been in touch with poland and shared their condolences personally and while poland is doing its own fact—finding mission, the west is doing this as well. thank you for keeping us up—to—date with the latest developments. i am sure will be back to you throughout the day. leaders have a lot on the mindset of the 620's are met,

the g7 mindset of the 620's are met, the 67 potentially gathering for that emergency meeting, as we are hearing from reports. 0ne we are hearing from reports. one of the key issues of course will be what will the response of these western nations, what will that be? for more on that,... let's go to virginia in the united states now where we can speak to the alexander vindman, who is a retired us army lieutenant colonel who was the director for european affairs for the us national security council in the trump administration before he was reassigned in early 2020. ijust want i just want to put to you i just want to put to you what i just want to put to you what your response is to the events overnight?— your response is to the events overniuht? ,, , , overnight? sure. iwas probably less reassigned _ overnight? sure. iwas probably less reassigned and _ overnight? sure. iwas probably less reassigned and more - overnight? sure. iwas probably less reassigned and more firedl less reassigned and more fired because i testified against the president, i thought i should clarify that, but this is a serious incident. what ended up happening is, whether intentional or accidental, there was a strike on nato territory. 0ver there was a strike on nato territory. over the course of the next day or couple of days, it won't take long to figure out exactly what this is, there is debris, there are all sorts

of intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance platforms tracking all of these missiles where they are flying, there will be a determination of exactly what happened. it is likely this is a russian system that landed inside poland. the question is whether it is intentional or accidental. i would say that it almost besides the point, whether it was or intentional. the russians are going to be looking to understand what the nato response is going to be... alexander, just to say, ijust want tojump in alexander, just to say, ijust want to jump in there, alexander, because we are hearing from the polish president of course that there was no conclusive evidence he was no conclusive evidence he was responsible for the missile strike. i think it is important to point that out at this point and it doesn't have any evidence at the moment. it does say however in a statement from the foreign ministry that it was most likely a russian—made missile, but that this is all under investigation at this

point. what do you think nato's priority will be at this point in time and particularly from the us perspective?- in time and particularly from the us perspective? let's make sure we actually _ the us perspective? let's make sure we actually understand - the us perspective? let's make j sure we actually understand the facts. 100 missiles, a combination of missiles and drones, were fired out of russian territory inside ukraine. it looks like one, maybe two, there are some reports of two systems potentially striking inside poland. that is the exact kind of details are not entirely clear but the context does matter. we cannot dismiss the fact there are 100 missiles striking all across ukraine. what is likely to happen is at minimum nato has to take a resolute position, in terms of making sure rush is deterred from considering there are no consequences to attack nato. i think that is what the whole deliberation is going to be tomorrow, with regards to our article four of consultations, if they occur under the article

four procedures, or if it is just the ambassador is convening to have a conversation about what is going on. that is also why you have world leaders calling the president of poland, to indicate there is ironclad support for poland, a fellow nato member, and to warn russia this is a serious incident, whether this was intentional or accidental, based on the very likely probability frankly that something happened as a result of these hundred missiles flying into ukraine, whether it is accidental or intentional. in terms of further assistance from the united states specifically, we have seen dilatory aid coming from the biden administration, do you think this will pressure them to give more to ukraine? the

auestion to give more to ukraine? the question again _ to give more to ukraine? tue: question again will to give more to ukraine? tte: question again will be the determination of whether this was intentional or accidental. the russians will deny it. there is a degree of kind of non—attribution here, and they could claim this was, if this is the way it ends up unfolding, in that kind of scenario, if the russians did this intentionally, and there is good evidence to suggest that, i could say the policymakers will consider much more robust actions. that will be additional defensive aid to ukraine, potentially even expending the defensive air defence systems that are currently servicing poland and romania may be given the task to intercept anything coming close to the border. so that might be targets across inside ukraine, but they are for establishing a kind of de facto no—fly zone. i think that is a possibility, again, depending on intent. if this was an accident, and the intelligence services kind of substantiate that, it will be a firm warning to make sure that the russians understand that article five,

nato, are united in resisting any accidental or intentional attack on the organisation, and thenit attack on the organisation, and then it will probably be almost kind of more business as usual, with the aid continuing to flow into ukraine. the attribution, the intent, will be pretty critical here.— critical here. alexander, retired us _ critical here. alexander, retired us army - critical here. alexander, | retired us army colonel, critical here. alexander, - retired us army colonel, thank you forjoining us. just a reminder of our main story and to bring you up—to—date with some of the latest developments we have seen out here in bali, indonesia, where the 6m dash—mac with the 620 summit is under way. two people have been killed in poland after missiles landed near the ukrainian border and polish media and other media agencies have said russian missiles were responsible, but there has been no confirmation of that yet. here in bali, world leaders have been gathering for an

emergency roundtable. they have been on their phone, according to my colleague chris mason, reporting from here as well, talking to poland. in the last few moments the leaders of the us, the uk, the european union, spain, canada, germany, france and the netherlands have gathered for what has been described by the white house as an emergency roundtable. lots for them to discuss and we will bring you the latest on that as and when we can get it. but for now, let's speak to another guest. mark cancian, senior adviser with the csis international security program. he joins us from washigton dc. there has been some suggestion that these missiles were russian—made. what more can you tell us about that? russian-made. what more can you tell us about that?— tell us about that? there has been speculation, _ tell us about that? there has been speculation, based - tell us about that? there has been speculation, based on | tell us about that? there has i been speculation, based on the that these were missiles, these are russian—made air defence

missiles but both russia and the ukrainians have these missiles, the russians have been using them for ground to ground rather than ground to air. in that capacity they're quite inaccurate. it is not possible one of them —— it is possible one of them —— it is possible one of them —— it is possible one of them went off target. it is also possible something happened with the ukrainians as they try to intercept these missiles. everyone is being careful about attribution, they are talking about getting all the facts, i think that is very sensitive and confused situations like this. �* , and confused situations like this. , ., , ., and confused situations like this. absolutely, lots of fact findin: this. absolutely, lots of fact finding an — this. absolutely, lots of fact finding an information - finding an information gathering taking place at the moment. what do you expect the response from nato countries to be? t response from nato countries to be? ~ , response from nato countries to be?

deliberations, but all of that is going to depend on the investigations about what happened, possibly of the attribution, and then, based on that, they will take some action. i expect that, regardless of even if this was some sort of accident, that the united states and nato will beef up their air defences in eastern poland. there will certainly be a lot of pressure to reassure our eastern european allies that the united states stands with them and will protect them against incidents like this in the future. if it turns out this was intentional in some way then the response could be more robust, may be more equipment going to ukraine, may be more forces in eastern europe. that would be quite serious. figs forces in eastern europe. that would be quite serious. as you oint would be quite serious. as you point out. _ would be quite serious. as you point out. the _ would be quite serious. as you point out, the potential- would be quite serious. as you point out, the potential for- point out, the potentialfor escalation here is quite severe or a real possibility. we understand president biden has been speaking with the nato

secretary general. what do you think the two will be trying to ascertain, ortry think the two will be trying to ascertain, or try to pin down, in terms of red lines here, in terms of what action they take next? , , ., ~ next? they will be talking about what _ next? they will be talking about what each - next? they will be talking about what each side - next? they will be talking about what each side has| about what each side has learned. i think they will be discussing about next steps, the best ways to coordinate a response, making sure that the us and nato are in sync of whatever they do, that there is no daylight between the two, and also that both of then would reassure the eastern europeans that they will be protected and that nato stands with them. protected and that nato stands with them-— protected and that nato stands with them. . , , ., ., with them. there has been a lot of discussion _ with them. there has been a lot of discussion about _ with them. there has been a lot of discussion about intent, - with them. there has been a lot of discussion about intent, and l of discussion about intent, and whether it was an accident or not. these missile strikes did happen at a time when russia was launching strikes on ukraine and that in and of itself is something that the international community needs to take even more seriously thanit

to take even more seriously than it currently is doing. you think the events overnight will sorta bring that home for not just members of countries who are in the 67, but the wider international community about resolve, when it comes to the war in ukraine?— war in ukraine? well, if it turns out— war in ukraine? well, if it turns out these _ war in ukraine? well, if it turns out these were - war in ukraine? well, if it. turns out these were russian missiles that were part of these strikes against ukraine, evenif these strikes against ukraine, even if they were unintentional, it will certainly galvanise nato and many countries around the world about the dangerous, particularly the possibility of inadvertent escalation, and the possibility that there could be future such incidents that could lead to confrontations. i think there will be a lot of pushback against the russians, and again some movement of troops into eastern europe, particularly air defence. you may remember back in the spring, the united states sent 18,000 trips to europe, mostly to eastern europe, to reassure the allies. many of those trips have come home. if this turns

out to have been a russian incident, i think there will be some effort to move at least some effort to move at least some of those troops back. t some of those troops back. i just want to get your thoughts on the fact that we have heard that poland is invoking article four, and that is one step forward towards consultation. nato, as well, holding a potential meeting. can you just talk us through the significance of that, and how it differentiates from article five of nato?_ five of nato? marko it is an important _ five of nato? marko it is an important step, _ five of nato? marko it is an important step, article - five of nato? marko it is an j important step, article four five of nato? marko it is an i important step, article four is a consultation when it believes its country is endangered. it has been done a number of times in the password is not extraordinary. article five is the big article that states an attack on one is an attack on oral. 0ver attack on one is an attack on oral. over the years, countries have pledged to support militarily the country that has been attacked. it has only been invoked once, as you have heard, that was after 9—11 when

the united states was attacked by terrorists. so article four is a very reasonable step to consultations. it does not obligate anyone to take military action, but it does take a step so that whatever happens, nato is working together, working with the same information and presents a united front.— information and presents a united front. ., ~ , ., . united front. thank you so much for our united front. thank you so much for your thoughts _ united front. thank you so much for your thoughts and _ united front. thank you so much for your thoughts and your - for your thoughts and your insights on newsday. let's leave that story for now and turn to the united states. former president donald trump is expected to make a "special announcement" this evening at his florida home in mar—a—lago. we can go there. 0ur north america correspondent nomia iqbaljoins me from west palm beach. 6reat great to get you on the programme. what are we

expecting, in terms of the announcement, and is this news we had been anticipating tremarco my right to think that? ., ., ., , that? you are. donald trump has been hinting _ that? you are. donald trump has been hinting at _ that? you are. donald trump has been hinting at running _ that? you are. donald trump has been hinting at running for - that? you are. donald trump has been hinting at running for the i been hinting at running for the white house for a third term since february last year, and he was hinting it on the campaign trailfor the mid—term campaign trail for the mid—term elections. campaign trailfor the mid—term elections. we are in west palm beach, mar—a—lago is behind me, if you squint you might see it. we do have a team inside. and it is all decked out in very classic trump style, the ballroom in mar—a—lago, the huge ballroom, ready for the media and hundreds of guests, it is all in gold of course and on the stage lots of american flags and make america great science as well. donald trump is expected —— signs as well. whatever announcement he is going to make and it is widely expected he will be announcing a third run, is thought to last about 30 minutes. if you think back tojune 2015, when he came

down the golden escalator in trump towers in new york and announced he was running for the white house, he was very much an unknown quantity. he was dismissed by lots of political pundits as a joke. it was widely expected hillary clinton would become president. fast forward seven years later and he is very much a known quantity, he is very much a serious contender, but i guess the question is is he a toxic quantity, because following the mid—term elections in which the republicans did not do as well as expected, he is being blamed for that. there are other reasons potentially why the republicans did not do so well but there are signs that members of his own party are turning against him, and seeing him now as someone who is holding back the party. some of his closest advisers have advised him not to make this announcement but as i say it is widely expected he will announce he is going to run for the white house.—

the white house. interesting ou the white house. interesting you should — the white house. interesting you should say _ the white house. interesting you should say that - the white house. interesting you should say that because | the white house. interesting i you should say that because the question is, does he really enjoy the support of the majority of the republican party, or has he become more