a this is bbc news, the headlines. russia launches missile strikes across ukraine. one hit an apartment block, in the city of dnipro — killing at least 5 people. clearing operations are ongoing and will continue throughout the night. how many people are still under the rubble is still unknown. iran has executed british—iranian, dual national, alireza akbari, on charges of �*spying for the uk' — which he'd denied. britain's prime minister called it, a �*callous and cowardly act'. a further 5 classified documents have been found at the delaware home of us president, joe biden. and in the uk — a 7—year—old girl is in a critical condition in hospital,

following a shooting in london. four women were also injured in the attack. you are watching bbc news. now, talking business. hello, everybody. a very warm welcome to talking business weekly with me, aaron heslehurst. let's go take a look at what's on the very first show for 2023. a new year has dawned, but is there any change for the deep problems facing the global economy? the war in europe continues to rage, driving up prices, interest rates, food scarcity and hardening divisions between the global economic superpowers. the imf, the international monetary fund, says a third of the world will be driven into recession this year. its big boss there she is, managing director kristalina georgieva, joins me for an exclusive interview about the year in front of us. also on the show, as the fashion world mourns the loss of iconic designer dame vivienne westwood, we ask if the world of designer clothes will ever be as collectible

as the world of art. yep. the boss of vestiaire collective, that's the global fashion resale site joins me to tell us what you should buy to make your wardrobe make money. wherever you'rejoining me from around the world. once again, a big hello and a warm welcome to the show. you know, while we always like to have a warm start to the year, i'll tell you what, it's looking pretty bleak for the global economy. the pressing issues of 2022 didn't go away at the stroke of midnight on december the 31st. in a few minutes, we're going to be hearing from the managing director of the imf, the international monetary fund, she's going to talk about the challenges the world's

finances face and what needs to be done to get the global economy back on track. here's where their predictions stand right now. in 2021, while the pandemic continued to rage, the global economy grew byjust over 6%. this year, the imf is expecting it to be less than half of that. that would be the worst performance in two decades. a third of the world is forecast to be in recession this year, driven by slowdowns in china, the united states and the european union. and prices, boy, they are rising. we all know that. but here's the official imf forecast this year. it's predicting inflation to rise by six and a half percent. that's a bit lower than last year and it should fall to around 4% in 202a. so while that growth in prices is slowing, it's still a lot higher than the targets that central banks have to meet. and so they're likely to use higher interest rates as their key tool to get inflation back down to their target. so what can be done?

well, as the world's power brokers get ready for their annual meeting at the world economic forum in davos in switzerland? one voice they all listen to is the managing director of the international monetary fund, kristalina georgieva. a real pleasure, my friend, having you on the show. and kristalina, let's start with this, because you've recently said a third of the world is heading into recession this year. how deep do you think the recession could be? and importantly, kristalina, where are we talking about? what we are looking into is a tough 2023. where we would lend is to be seen. our expectation is that the numbers would be possibly in line with what we have projected in october. actually, when we talk about a third of the world in recession, we do look at these two years, �*22 to �*23 combined. whether it would be milder recession

for those that are experiencing or not would depend on developments on three fronts. one, the fight against inflation. we have seen that inflation is picking up, but that doesn't yet apply to core inflation. and therefore, central banks are bound to continue to keep conditions tight. number two, how will china come through their relaxation of covid policies? we know there would be a couple of tough months for china. how long would that be and how deeply it would impact the chinese economy and through it, asia and the rest of the world is still to be seen.

number three, the senseless war, russia still carries against ukraine. how would that impact food security? overall confidence is to be seen. so to sum it up, tough year, but we have seen that the world is resilient. it was resilient against covid. it shows some resilience even in this tough times in terms of how the labour market performs. so let's pray for the best and of course, be ready for these tough times. kristalina, just very briefly, though, what parts of the world could go into recession this year? well, for sure we would see recessionary signs in europe. europe is the most dramatically hit by the war. russia still carries

on against ukraine. we would see tough times in emerging markets where the combined impact of high interest rates and depreciation of local currencies, when especially they in conditions of high debt, is dramatic. in other words, you look at countries like sri lanka, like pakistan, they are faced with very difficult conditions and we don't quite yet know how the us is going to go through the year. at this point we think the us may avoid falling into recession. basically carried forward by the confidence of us consumers and the savings they accumulated during the covid lockdowns. but we know that interest rates hit

labour markets with a lag. in other words, tightening of financial conditions ultimately leads to people buying less, avoiding new housing because of high mortgage rates. and that lack of consumer confidence is still to be seen. as you know, we are already experiencing labour market disruptions. when inflation cuts the spending power of people, sooner or later they demand higher wages and if they don't get it, they're on the street. and that kind of disruption we have to be prepared for. and if i had one message to policymakers today, it is, please look into the way you can protect the most vulnerable people.

given that fiscal conditions are tight and anticipate the impact of high interest rates on labour markets early. and kristalina, if we look at food prices, we know, we all know that they're much higher now. the war in ukraine has certainly hit them on multiple levels. and whilst that war goes on, do you think food costs will stay high? and i'm wondering if that could impact on stability. i'm thinking in particular countries in the middle east and parts of africa. this is an excellent question. what we have seen is food prices overall on average have trimmed down. but there is distinct difference between north america, asia on one side, where this is more visible, in other words, food prices are lower, and sub—saharan africa, europe, where this is not yet happening. and if the deal that was struck on exporting ukrainian grain breaks

down, for those that are most dependent on importing food from ukraine, and you rightly pointed out to north africa, it's going to be very, very difficult. i would move the attention today to fertilisers, because this is where we see particular threat for food production and therefore food prices in 2023. fertiliser prices remain very high. production of ammonia in the european union, for example, shrank dramatically. all of this is connected, of course, to the impact of russia's war on gas prices and gas availability. but on a more positive note, what we do see is a stronger impetus for policymakers to quickly shift gear to address problems that are coming.

in other words, we learned our lesson from the pandemic and from the war. expect the unexpected. scan the horizon for what may come. take early action. one other thing we know the war in ukraine has done is it's caused a globalfragmentation broadly, kristalina, between those western countries who have imposed sanctions and others like china and india and many gulf states who have not. you have 190 countries as members. does this fragmentation concern you about the ability to take coordinated action? it is ourjob to keep this 190 members together for the sake of macroeconomic and financial stability. and so far, we have seen a remarkable resilience among our membership to act decisively, where the fund has to step up.

and myjob is to relentlessly work with the membership to recognise one simple thing. together we are much stronger than we are drifting apart. and to bring forward the evidence of the benefits of global cooperation. look, over the last 30 years, because of us working together, because of the peace dividend from the end of the cold war, the world economy tripled. emerging markets in developing economies are the biggest beneficiaries. they quadrupled and even advanced economies doubled. in other words, we are all wealthier. so when we think about how we work together, the role of trade collaboration, we have to remember that if we fail, we all would be poorer and the world

would be less secure. and kristalina, we know you're going to the world economic forum in davos. kristalina, do you think anything useful will come out of this gathering? i am optimistic. i think thatjust getting together, private sector, public sector and talking about the incredible challenges we are faced with would help us to come up with better solutions. and we know that when we put our minds and our forces together, it is a good outcome that we reap off from it. remember in 2020, when the world came together to diagnose what the covid crisis was and then stepped up to support businesses and households? how that helped us to avoid what could have been a great depression. now we are faced with a similar situation when the challenges

are so complex that only by talking with each other, defining the problems correctly, we can have solutions to these problems. so my message to davos is strength in unity. and finally, let me end on this, kristalina, what are the bright spots? i mean, any glimmers of light? do you do you see in 2023? there are bright spots on the economic horizon, for sure. you look at a country like india that has dramatically benefited from digitalisation of its economy. covid put digital in india on steroids. and so we see quite an impressive growth and very good performance of social services as a result. we see the concentration in africa on diversifying production of vaccines,

fertilisers, so they can be more resilient to future shocks. and if i were to take one big message, that notion of resilience to shocks is penetrating strongly in the business community and among policy makers. yes, we have our work cut out for us, but at least we know that we have to have policies that build buffers, build resilience for the shocks to come, because they will. well, on that point, kristalina georgieva, my friend, the big boss of the imf, i always appreciate your time. thanks forjoining me. and i'll talk to you soon. thank you, my friend. you know, the world of second—hand clothing has traditionally been well, it's been for charity shops. now the hunt for a designer bargain is moving online and for big bucks. my next guest says that 23 million people use his site to buy and sell second—hand luxury clothes and accessories.

so can your clothes increase in value like a painting? well, i sat down and caught up with the big boss of vestiaire collective, maximilian bittner. a real pleasure having you on the show. thanks for your time. and max, let's start with this. look, as we know, i mean, it's a challenging time for the global economy. so i'm just wondering, from your perspective, are you seeing a change in in the way people are using your site? you know, i think we're really at the moment at a somewhat perfect storm in a negative sense that we see both the financial and economic crisis unfolding and at the same time seeing the sustainability challenges that the planet is facing colliding at the same time. and we're in this intersection between sustainability, luxury and tech. if you think about it from a seller perspective, this is a period where they might face, you know, personal uncertainty, financial uncertainty. you know, let's be a bit honest people. just because it's a difficult period will not stop being vain. they will not stop

being on social media. they still want to look good and they want to continue consuming these wonderful products that we buy and sell on the platform. but they can get it on a platform at a much cheaper price than they would get it first hand. so, you know, in many ways, you know, our model is somewhat built for this kind of a period of disruption. let me ask you this, you have something like 5 million pieces listed on your platform. what is it that people should be buying if they want their piece to rise as an investment? yeah, and you should think about it as investment, as an asset. we have 30,000 new items coming onto the platform every day. so every day, every day, 30,000 new items. and the way i think about what i buy first hand or second hand is, is de facto looking at it, what has the highest likelihood to resell at a good price? and the more luxurious

you go or the more hot you go or sexy you go. depending on on the brand and whatever market cycle we're in, the more likely you are able to sell it at the same, maybe even higher, or just at a smaller discount below. so if you think about the hot brands today, you know, dior absolutely is hot. so dior is reselling at the best price. but if you really look at it from an investment perspective, you almost need to not think luxury clothing, but you need to think luxury. and that's, you know, you're very quickly in the m2 bag, chanel bag or the main, you know, known watch brands that we can all think of, whether it's patek or rolex. but, sorry, are you talking about certain products that would resell higher than the original purchase point? yeah. i mean, if you think about a birkin bag, it's probably selling at two times the original purchase, four times the price because, you know, the luxury industry has constrained

as business model and made itself as attractive as it is because they want to reduce the availability of the products. so if you want to buy a birkin bag today and you go to m2, they probably tell you to come back two years later to get it. you need to build a relationship with them over time. same with the most famous and exclusive watch brands. and if you think about vestiaire, you can go and buy these products today. what's the most expensive item in terms of price point that you've sold on the platform? in the summer of last year, we sold mz�*s birkin bag for 158,000. sorry, 158,000 euros? yeah, it was a very unique piece. birkin bag for bulk of which there's four different types. and you have collectors who specifically were looking for these bags, which are almost impossible to get in the stores. 158,000 euros it was sold for, would you have known the original purchase price? i'm not 100% sure, but i would expect it to be about 15,000 to 20,000 euros to buy, and they sold it for 158,000. it's a pretty good investment.

that's a heck of an investment, considering most other investments at the moment. yes. before i move on, can you give me any other examples of what you've seen consumers make money on by buying on your site? i think you have incredibly savvy micro—entrepreneurs who buy and sell on vestiaire in some sort of ways using global arbitrage. you think about the us, historically, luxury goods are 20% more expensive than in europe. that's always been the case. but in the last 6 to 10 weeks, months with the inflation unfolding, american interest rates going up faster, obviously the euro got much weaker, as is the dollar. so we had a huge amount of american buyers, arbitrage being european buyers, arbitrageing european prices as being much cheaper. and us sellers, despite us buyers

not having to pay shipping fees, not having to pay import tariffs, it was cheaper for them to buy in europe. you're a business, obviously. how do you make your money? we take a cut. so we take a 15% cut on average, plus a 3% payment fee. so 18% the sale price of every single product that's being sold on the platform. how do you police the authenticity of the goods that you sell? this is the core and the heart of our business, how we've differentiated ourselves to ebay 12, 13 years ago when the business has been set up, we've built so much expertise through the authenticators that we have in our five global authentication hubs. real people. yes. so every time you buy a product on vestiaire year, you have the option to say, i want this product to be physically authenticated. for any product that is north of1,000 euros or £1,000, we automatically authenticate it and then we have it checked by these experts. and you know, the nice story

i like telling is when we started off ten plus years ago, we've hired these experts from auction houses, the only two authenticators we've lost over the last years were actually hired by auction houses from us. right. because the only way you can get better as an authenticator is by touching as many products, you know, to practice your skill, to keep your skill up to date. max, let me ask you this, the uk is now in somewhat three years into brexit. i'm just wondering what impact did that have or possibly still having on your business? i like explaining this here is literally a microcosm of how terrible brexit has been for both europe and the uk. if you think about it from a pure economics perspective before brexit. in the uk, only around 20—25% of products being bought by english buyers were bought from english sellers,

the rest would come from europe and the logic behind that is that uk was part of the bigger european ecosystem and part of the bigger supply and demand. and with brexit, overnight, when brexit happened, a lot of focus was on the import tariffs, but with brexit overnight on every single product being bought and sold in europe from the uk and vice versa had a vat mark—up of up to 20%. so for every uk buyer, every year, imp and product being sold was 20% more expensive and vice versa. so literally overnight all the products became 20% more expensive. and on top of that, you add the complexity of the customs and the extra time to have those products pass through customs. and so it had a huge impact on our business. i mean, our overall revenue went down 20, 30% literally overnight. we've recovered now, but our business has completely been transformed from a historically uk

being part of europe business ie 25%, only being bought from uk sellers to now 75%, 80% being uk to uk business. so it's been a dramatic impact. and, for us as a business itself, this is mainly the impact on on uk buyers and sellers suffering from not being part of the bigger supply and demand market. but for us as a business, the complexity of shipping the products. but the main thing was that we used to have our products authenticated outside of paris, so we had to build a new logistics operation, a new authentication hub in crawley, so southwest of london, and had to rebuild our presence basically. so we had to completely rethink. the uk has not been part of the european union any more. max, let me end on this. on the 29th of december last year, the queen of british fashion, dame vivienne westwood, iconic fashion designer, unfortunately passed away at the age of 81. how does the death of a designer

impact the value of their designs? firstly, i think it's important to highlight how tragic this is. i mean, just to think about it, we have our main management boardroom where i spend most of my meetings and it's actually called vivienne westwood. no, really? so it's really our main meeting room in paris on the third floor. it's called vivienne westwood. so i spend most of my time, "i'll see you in vivienne westwood." so for us it's very meaningful because she's in many ways been the pioneer of, of thinking, sustainable around the way you consume and things you can say about the whole industry. and so it's very tragic for us. and i think we just see her as one of the icons that inspired the founders to build the business that it is today, you know, again, if something like this happens, we do see spikes in interest. you know, these brands become... you mean sorry, if a designer does pass away, you'll see a spike?

we've had, you know, sadly, i think last year, quite a few of the more known designers have passed away. and every time something like this happens, we do see spikes in search for these products. well, on that point, maximilian bittner, a real pleasure having you on the show. thanks for your time. thanks so much for having me. thank you. well, that's it for this week. i hope you enjoyed the show. don't forget, you can keep up with the latest on our global economy on the bbc website or the smartphone app. of course, you can also follow me on twitter, tweet me, i'll tweet you back. you can get me at... thanks for watching. i'll see you soon. bye— bye. hello. our forecasts are very much being about the rain so far this january.

we're not even halfway through the month and some spots have already seen close to a month and a half's worth of rainfall. cardiff, for example. in the days ahead, though, it will be relatively dry, but it's going to turn much colder. things have already started to become chillier across the uk through saturday as we've started to pick up a northwesterly airstream. late sunday into monday though, into a direct northerly airstream and arctic air, we all go. we still don't have a lot of water lying about and numerous flood warnings in place. so do keep up to date with those on our website. but instead of rain, it's going to be looking out for snow, i suspect in the days ahead. that will be our major forecasting headache. we're going to have this little weather system drifting its way south overnight, the centre of our low pressure up here to the northeast, quite windy around that low gales for the south west of scotland, to the north of northern ireland, wintry showers feeding in to scotland, maybe even down to lower levels. and out of this system, perhaps a little bit of snow across snowdonia for the lake district, perhaps across the pennines, but generally still with the strength of the wind,

it's not quite cold enough for us to see a widespread frost across england and wales. so it'll mostly be showers of rain we see on that little weather system as it trickles its way south through sunday morning and tends to fade out actually. so i think quite a lot of sunshine to come across england and wales away from western coasts through the day on sunday. some more snow showers for the far north west of scotland. a chillier day for all. the winds actually ease back through the day, but highs, sixes and sevens to the south of the uk, some parts of scotland away from the coast, temperatures will not get above freezing. and then overnight sunday into monday, you can see a weather system there rolling through close to the south coast. the cold air at this stage is digging its way south. as the two come together, there is uncertainty where we may see perhaps something a little bit more significant in the way of snow for first thing on monday, perhaps across the downs, the weald of kent. please stay tuned because we will be able to pin that down closer to the time. same story though, monday night into tuesday, that big low up

there to the northeast. but these little features running around to the bottom of it, making it very difficult to pinpoint exactly where we could see wintry weather in terms of the timing in our forecast, but colder certainly for all this week.

this is bbc news. our top stories: russia launches missile strikes across ukraine. one hit an apartment block, in the city of dnipro, killing at least five people. translation: clear-up operations are ongoing and will continue - throughout the night. how many people are under the rubble is still unknown. a further five classified documents have been found at the delaware home of us presidentjoe biden. four women and two girls have been injured after a drive—by shooting near a church in central london. iran has executed british—iranian dual national alireza akbari, on charges of "spying for the uk", which he'd denied. britain's prime minister calls it

a "callous and cowardly act".