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tv   Global Questions  BBC News  January 15, 2023 3:30pm-4:01pm GMT

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this is bbc news. i'm annita mcveigh, and these are the headlines... a plane carrying more than 70 people has crashed in nepal, killing nearly everyone on board. officials say there are some survivors who are now receiving hospital treatment. the aircraft came down while landing at the tourist town of pokhara. rescue workers in the ukrainian city of dnipro search for dozens of survivors of a russian missile attack on an apartment building which killed at least 22 people. most of the country is now under an emergency blackout after missiles hit power infrastructure in several cities. a 7—year—old girl has life threatening injuries after a suspected drive by shooting outside a memorial service in london. police have described it as �*shocking' and �*senseless�*. you're watching bbc news.
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now global questions comes from sri lanka. welcome to global questions with me, zeinab badawi, from the heart of sri lanka's capital, colombo. i'm outside the presidential office, and today, its pristine exterior is well guarded. but six months ago, angry antigovernment protesters stormed this building, as well as the presidential palace, forcing the president to flee the country. they were angry at just how desperate their economic situation had become, and they blamed government corruption and mismanagement for it. sri lanka is saddled with heavy debt, soaring inflation and impossibly high food and fuel costs. and it's become something of a bellwether for other lower—income countries. world leaders are looking to see whether sri lanka can overcome its worst economic crisis for more than 70 years,
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and whether its experience marks a growing trend of civil unrest. applause. welcome to the magnificent national museum here in colombo, which charts the history of this beautiful island, as it marks 75 years of independence from britain, and we've got a top panel here from sri lanka who are going to be answering questions from our local audience. let me tell you who's in the hot seat for this edition of global questions. ali sabry is sri lanka's foreign minister. until very recently, he was minister of finance, and hence played a leading role in international negotiations for an economic bailout. at the end of last year, he held high—level talks in washington about the economic
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and political crisis. harini amarasuriya is a member of parliament for the national people's opposition party. she's a former lecturer at university and is a vocal critic of the government. and dushni weerakoon is one of sri lanka's leading economists. she was a member of the board of the central bank and is a consultant to various bodies such as the world bank, she's also executive director of the institute of policy studies of sri lanka. that's our panel. welcome to you all. applause. and remember, you too can join the conversation. lots of questions to get through, so let's go to our first one from ranmini ariawanshe. ranmini. how can sri lanka survive in a global crisis like this? will this not lead to more civil unrest? foreign minister ali sabry. thank you very much for that question. it's a very difficult
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time for all of us. i hoped that i had a ready—made answer for that, you don't have it, it's not easy to be frank with that. internationally, prices have gone up, rupee has depreciated, particularly the energy, petroleum, coal, 35% of what we are relying on for our electricity, grain and all those things, but what we are trying to do is to control the inflation, curb the demand so that the inflation is controlled. i think we have seen some positivity, 95% of the inflation which was injune—july had come down to 70 or 60%, that the food and the general inflation has also come down from 85% to 50s. so, therefore, ithink there is no quick fix, but the only way out is to increase the export, reduce the import, preserve the dollars and repurposed it for import of important items, which is necessary for day—to—day movement. all right. and, ranmini's second part of her question was —
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could it lead to more civil unrest? are we going to see millions of people out on the streets again? yeah. hopefully, i don't see that, but i feel that there is a little bit of progress, i think you will agree with me, compared to what — as this initial visual shows, we have — we don't have the full queues any longer, and that also been because we introduced a qr code, as a result of which, the 40% of the demand has been cut off, and that's a result of — we are serving a lot of foreign currency, which we have been repurposing for... all right. so the answer is no, you're not going to see people on the streets again? i don't think so. i'm optimistic that we could get out of it. let's see what a member of the opposition thinks. harini. well, i think there's a lot more - that needs to happen before we can be guaranteed that people will noti get on the streets because the key problems that led to the crisis have not been resolved. - we talked about — sabry talked about the full crisis, _ but what we are seeing now — the lack of queues — - is not because there's - a sufficient supply of fuel, it's because fuel- has been restricted. so this cannot go on _
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indeterminately, there has to be some resolution for this, - and also, what i see is that this is not just an economic crisis. this is a political crisis. i when people got on the streets last i year, people were demanding a change in the political culture. they were demanding a change in the political system. - well, they saw off the president, didn't they? imean, rajapaksa... yes, that's part one... ..went to singapore and resigned by e—mailfrom there. laughs that's part one. they got rid of someone they didn't like. - but have we replaced the person e didn't like with a person _ that we have chosen? we haven't. dushni weerakoon, your response to that question? well, i think sri lanka is — i mean, we are through the worst of the crisis, but i think that we are certainly not out of the woods yet. if the economic downturn is prolonged and recessionary conditions drag on, there is a sense that people's lives are not improving, their livelihoods and their basic sort of living
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standards are not going to see much improvement over the next two to three years. so it can lead to a sense of frustration, and i think it's quite right that this is not only an economic crisis, it is also a political crisis — loss of faith in governance and our political institutions. so there has to be some sense of momentum, that the problems have been recognised and some changes are coming. 0therwise, what would happen? otherwise i think a sense of frustration can spill over into a repeat of what we saw. thank you very much indeed. let's go to our second question. anoka abeyrathne, your question, please. so, how can corruption, which is the leading reason for why the country is where it is now, be curbed to ensure sound policies and governance ? 0oh, anoka's sticking out her head there, isn't she?
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so, we know about all the external factors that have gone on, but anoka's question is that the internal factors, principally corruption, is the culprit. let's go to you first, harini. yeah, i think that's the key issue. if you look at the protests last year, one of the key demandsj of people was "give our stolen money back" and all those _ who were responsible - for corruption accountable. so, addressing that is critical, but that requires a political. change, a political reform, and that's the point - i made earlier as well — - if we see this purely in terms of an economic crisis, that would be missing the big picture. _ this is a political crisis, _ and the decisions and choices that | politicians have made led to this crisis, and those politicians have to be held accountable - for the decisions they made and the consequences _ and the suffering that people have had to undergo as a result. so unless that accountability is taken care of, i think- we will never be able to really resolve this crisis and, - in that, corruption is key.
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0k, just — everybody here in the audience in sri lanka is aware of what's been going on, butjust give a quick couple of lines to our audience out there when you said "stolen money". what do you mean exactly? well, during the protests last year, one of the key demands _ of the people, of the protesters - was "give our stolen money back" — that was one of the big slogans. yeah, sure. that led — that was from the idea that people had that the economic crisis - that they were experiencing... yeah, but i mean, how were these — are you talking about misappropriated funds... misappropriation... ..economic mismanagement... ..wastage. .. ..backhanders... ..excessive privileges that people in power enjoy, - backroom deals, commissions — all of these issues. _ and this has been going on for a very long time. this has been going on for years, l and that's why i think it's also l important to recognise that this is not just about covid - or the last three years. this is something that is systemic. all right. ali sabry. yeah, corruption is another emblematic problem, but then we have, by the 21st amendment, have restored the independent
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councils, we are in the process of developing that, and then by that, we have recognised the anti—corruption convention, and also, the anti—corruption law will come into the place. but corruption is one of the key demand, and very popular one, but to be honest, that's not the only thing. we have an extra—large size public service of 1.6 million people, which works out to 16:1, whereas india has 177:1, which we can't account for. 86% of our last year's revenue went only for payment of salaries, so you can't run a country like that. 0ur of 70% of our entirety of the budget this year went for loan payment and loan interest repayments, so it's easy to say that the corruption alone, it'sjust one point, there are massive reforms which are necessary... but it is a factor? of course it is a factor. you're saying it's one amongst a few, but what tangible actions and mechanisms are being implemented to ensure that you have that accountability of funds in the country?
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yeah. we are looking at an anti—corruption law in the style of hong kong to give further power to the independent commissions of corruption and bribery, so that more prosecutions can take place. harini wants to say something to you, ali sabry. yes... say it to him, not to me! you're looking at me! laughs but i think the issue here is that corruption, - as we've understood, . it's systemic here, right, and it's notjust a case of... it's about holding i people accountable. this government has been in power for three years already. _ three years now? 2.5, three years. where is it accountability? what has really happened even- when they've been in power, right? and what about the | ongoing corruption? there have been instances right now, |as we speak, of corruption going on. | minister also spoke — - you also spoke about the blow to the public sector. who is responsible for that? who hired those people? we're going to come to that. applause.
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i'm so sorry, ali sabry, minister, but they like what harini is saying and you didn't get any applause for that answer. but, anyway, let's see what dushni has to say. dushni, your response to the question about corruption. i tend to agree with what the minister said to the extent that corruption is one of the sort of, you know, manifestations of the broader issue of loss of accountability and weakening of institutions that we've had, and i think we need to — we can have certain structures and places in place, but i think one of the biggest areas or reforms that people are demanding is actually in the political leadership, because corruption has not sprung on us overnight, and the economic crisis did not spring up overnight either. this has been successive governments over the last few decades where we have persistently seen institutions being weakening.
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so there's no quick fix. all right. now, i'm going to take the next two questions together because they both ask something that's related. so let's go first with thanuki goonesinghe. thanuki. how important does the panel think welfare reforms will be in the coming months to support those most affected by the cost—of—living crisis? 0k, thank you, and let's go to maheesha weerasinghe. a nutritious meal for children and the general population i as a whole has been absent for a long time. _ what are the immediate steps that have been taken that would be - successful even in the long run? dushni, i mean, two questions there — one is about sort of emergency welfare for people who are in a desperate situation right now. i mean, people are sort of choosing about whether they should eat, whether their children should eat, which child should go to school, which child shouldn't go to school. i mean, you know, it really is a dire situation,
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and what can be done in the long run? well, ithink — i mean, there has not been a disruption to sri lanka's welfare schemes related to schoolchildren. there is a free midday meal, schooling is accessible to all at no cost. the issue is that we've had significant high food inflation in this country, running at over 90%. so whatever midday meals were being provided by the government, you are not able to provide that same meal now, because the cost has almost doubled. and, unfortunately, given the fact that we are in an economic crisis and the government needs to cut back on expenditures means there isn't that amount of funding there to top up what we should have topped up by now. so i think all of this means we are relying on multilateral agencies to provide some funding, but in the long term, we need to get
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all of the imf programmes, all of that tightened up so that budgetary support comes to scale these up, otherwise it will continue to be a big problem. 0k, harini amarasuriya, i mean, the united nations is really sounding the alarm bells, you know, they're saying that half of the population in sri lanka could really fall into poverty. so there's a huge problem with i targeting, and with effectiveness of existing welfare programmes. that is also due to heavy— politicisation of welfare programmes where governments that come in to power tend to provide - the welfare based on political- affiliation rather than actual need. so that has become a major burden on the welfare - programmes in general. all right. minister sabry, your response to the question? yeah. one of the conditions of the imf programme is also to roll over a social protection net to see the most vulnerable there and, of course, the midday meal programme is going on,
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but generally, about — more than 3 million families have been covered. but i do agree there are some verifications need to be done. there are some people who have already been graduated from this project, but still getting it, there are some who have been left out that need to come. there is a new programme, which is going on, along with the world bank, in order to identify that and upgrade that so that you... but time is coming out, isn't it, minister? but time is running out, isn't it, minister? i mean, people are really very hungry right now, and the government is, it seems, virtually on the verge of bankruptcy. i mean, even the president said a few months ago, president wickremesinghe, that trying to find $1 million was a bit of a challenge. of course, but if you look at it, about 700 million worth of us dollar worth of funding came in from the multilateral agencies, and larger part of it, about us$350 million, were directed towards the social security net, and that is how we have been met. of course, we all tend to agree there is no two word about it, we are not out of the woods,
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people are suffering, but if you look at the march and the may, people were told that we will starve in september, starve in october. that had not happened because a lot of funding was put in to fertilise that... yeah, but it might happen — it might happen, right? it might happen. it has happened. there are people going hungry as we speak, so it's not- as if we are out of the woods. i mean, we do get... of course we are not out of the woods. ..reports from schools of children |fainting during a school assembly| because they go to school hungry. it's also not just about filling your stomach. l it's about nutrition, - and that's the real issues, whether they are getting nutritious food, whether they're having - access to nutritious food. so there really needs to bei some emergency response, and that needs to happen. and you don't see that? not enough, not on the scale that is required. _ 0k. thank you for that. let's go to our next question. talal rafi, your question, please. sri lanka has one of the largest public sectors in the world — around 1.6 million people for a population of 22 million, and according to a minister, 86% of government revenue goes to paying salaries and pensions. so this is definitely unsustainable. so how can we reduce this?
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ali sabry, i mean, if you include the defence forces, the army in sri lanka is huge and, you know, as the question hasjust said, we've seen various figures between 70% and 80% of national spending goes into paying salaries. that's insupportable, isn't it? yeah. the last year, it went 86% of it. right now, it had come down to 65% because the revenue has gone up because of the... ok, but still very high. very, very high, we all tend to agree. but the problem is some of my friends in the party goes into the university, drag down the people to the street, not get them to study, and they once they come back, they are not employable. when they are not employable, you force them to get the governmentjob, they organise themselves... applause. ..they organise themselves an unemployed graduate union, they want to fix the public sector, public sector is bloated. so these are challenges, but this is not a time to point fingers at each other. all of us have to be blamed on this.
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because 1971, the price in 1988—�*90 uprising, in 1988—�*89 uprising, all have contributed to this. nobody is free, none of them are... they are trying to say that they're a paragon of virtue. no, that's not the case! they are also responsible, my party is also responsible, all the parties are responsible for what we have today, 75 years. it is the moment of truth. we all must be honest to admit that and deal with it. applause. harini. i think that's a really callous response to the situation i that we are in right now. people are not getting _ on the streets because they choose to get on the streets. they're getting on the streets - because there are actual problems. i think it's a very glib answer to say that it's the educationj sector that's to blame for the poor economy in this country. _ i the economy is the response that — i the economy needs to produce enough jobs, the economy needs to be resilient enough to absorb - those who are coming out of the university system. i we do not have that. and people are getting - on the streets and this very government, including the president, ranil wickremesinghe, _
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| was quite happy to see studentsj on the streets before he became president of this country, and now, students have i become enemy number one. that's not fair. applause. he has to remember how he got to the position that he is. - he's an unelected president and he got to that position. because of the protests on the street. - so, now to blame students - for what is happening is really not taking responsibility- for the conditions that created a situation that led i people to the streets. just remind people — ranil wickremesinghe was prime minister at the time, when gotabaya rajapaksa left office injuly. he then became president, and a lot of people in sri lanka believe he obviously does not have a mandate to be as president. but how does this relate to the question that was asked by talal about how you can reduce the bloated size of the public sector? exactly. it has to be — sorry, harini, please, go ahead. you're being very polite with each other now. laughs. no, we are polite. she's my colleague! the public sector certainly... we...our position is the public-
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sector needs to be strengthened — strengthened doesn't mean expansion . or bloating, and if you look at why. the public sector has been bloated |and if you look at in which sectors| it's been bloated, it's in areas, in resources where it's peoplel who are really unproductive, who've been chucked - into the public sector. there are lots of vacancies in areas that actually need to be filled. - i've got to bring — dushni, you've got to break up this bilateral at the side here. dushni, your response? i mean, ithink sri lanka has a public sector that's far too large. there is no dispute about that. the reason why it's grown in size is also political because each government that comes in has — they come under pressure to absorb more and more people into the public sector. some of it is unemployed graduates, but a larger chunk of it is also politicians providing employment to their supporters through the institutions that they control. applause. thank you. now, yes, so that's the problem. we're running out of time, so let's go to our next question.
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your question, please. so, my question to you is what are your thoughts on which countries sri lanka should look at aligning themselves economically in order to stem the cost—of—living crisis, given sri lanka's current precarious financial predicament, as well as for future growth and sustainability? dushni, you kick off on that one. i think if you look at long—term economic interests, my sense as an economist is that we are better aligned to the asian region because asia has been identified as a centre of growth for the next two to three decades. most of our investment is coming from asia, most of the technology transfer is coming from asia, most of our imports are coming from asia, our exports are of course headed to the west. but we need to diversify our export base, find new markets, and i think for us, finding new markets will also be mostly
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in the asian region. all right. so that's my short answer. short answer there. very quick answer to that one. i mean, china, india, japan — big countries that give a lot of money to sri lanka. i agree with dushni because we need to work with everybody, _ but then asia, this is the century of asia for at least the next two, three decades, so we have to work with them. india is growing, you have to partner with them, integrate with them, and have that opportunity to use it. so as far as china is concerned, we need to look at it, how to export more than now we are importing. very quickly on china, harini — maybe you could address this. a lot of people are unhappy about the fact that china builds these infrastructure projects, but at hugely inflated costs, and then there's this debt that's built up and they buy the family jewels, like the port. well, i think that's part- of the earlier issue we spoke about of corruption. yeah. but actually, the biggest. problem with indebtedness is not really china. it's the international sovereign bonds, which have been — - which we borrowed on private —
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privately — so that's the real problem, not so much the bilateral. loans that we've taken. thank you. final question. your question, please. thank you, zeinab. a lot of sri lankans are migrating and are now on the verge of migrating. as much as it does help generate foreign exchange to the country, in the long run, we are losing top talent and prospective entrepreneurs. also, start—ups and many other various skills that could lift the country to a much better state imaginable. what reforms and policies can we adapt to identify and retain young talent? ok, very important question, but i'm afraid we can't really go into reforms and policies, but it is a sad state of affairs — more than 300,000 people left the country last year — that's the highest figure ever. very quickly, dushni. i mean, we are losing talent that we really can't afford to because sri lanka is a rapidly ageing demography, we need our young
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people, and the only way that we can keep them back is to give them a sense of some material, systemic change that's going to come to the country on the political front, as well as on the economic front. if we don't have the confidence, they'll keep leaving. 0k. harini? people are leaving because they've lost hope and they don't think - that they can build a future in this. country, and that needs to change. people have to have hope, - people have to have confidence that they can carve a life out . for themselves in this country, and for that, there needs to be political change. i minister ali sabry — final point. yeah, i feel there has to be deep economic reform, as well as structural and political reforms, because although we say that there's a lot of people are gone, yes, 312,000, but even in 2014, 304,000 people left, they will go for a better standard. so what the alternative is is to provide an opportunity here in sri lanka so that we can retain them and there is opportunity for them. but even in india, in the early
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'80s, people started to go. now they have come back and they have started coming back. i'm hopeful, if we all work together without this partisan approach, we can rebuild our country. foreign minister ali sabry, harini amarasuriya, opposition mp, and economist dushni weerakoon, thank you very much indeed. that's all from this edition of global questions on whether sri lanka is managing to put a lid on the political discontent, which was triggered by that economic crisis. and i hope we've also discussed some of the lessons learned for other countries beset by similar problems. remember — we are the programme that brings you the trend lines behind the headlines. from me, zeinab badawi, from here in colombo, thank you to you, whatever you're watching or listening to this programme. for me and the rest of the global questions team, goodbye. applause
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hello. so far this january, our focus weather—wise has been very much on rainfall. a big change of tack, then, for the week ahead as we are talking about much colder weather — this darker blue shading on the map behind me indicating arctic air sinking right the way across the uk for the week ahead. for all, a colder story, frost and ice to contend with and for some, some snow. snow showers through this evening and overnight for northern scotland, perhaps something a little wintry to come across the peaks and the pennines, and then this area of low pressure here to the south, bumping up against some of the colder air, could bring some snow for first thing monday across the downs and to the weald of kent. heavy rain overnight for southern and coastal counties of england. not great news with the current flooding situaion. the low out of the way quite quickly on monday morning, leaving a lot of sunshine for much of the uk. a few showers coming in on a northerly breeze to eastern coastal counties. some more snow showers for scotland, even down to lower levels. relatively lighter winds,
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though, than recent days but a much colder feel — some spots in scotland won't get above freezing. and then monday night into tuesday the same story, another little weather feature that does not even exist yet. at the moment our models have it developing and running through to the south of the uk. tuesday, at the moment, the feature to the south and the channel, nothing to see here but we have had other models taking it further north with some snow across southern counties. you do need to bear with us day on day as we try and place that exact detail of these smaller weather features and where they may bring some snow. same, really, for wednesday — we're confident that low pressure will sit to the east but exactly how close to the east coast, we can't be precisely sure and if it's a little bit closer than it is in this model run, we may see some wintry showers in the east. at the moment, though, they're sitting across northern scotland with a few coming in on the breeze to western coastal counties. it is a cold day wednesday after a hard frost overnight but there is a lot of sunshine to be found. potentially the risk of some snow getting closer to eastern
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england through thursday, but by friday, indicators are that fronts will start to try and push back in from the atlantic from the west and our focus will turn once again to rainfall, but also milder air trying to work its way across the uk. as you saw, some elements of uncertainty in our forecast for the week ahead, particularly the specific locations of snow, but i can tell you it will be relatively drier than it has been but cold with frost and ice.
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this is bbc news — welcome if you're watching here in the uk or around the globe. i'm annita mcveigh and these are the latest headlines... the search for survivors of a plane crash in nepal has been called off for the evening. the aircraft was carrying 72 passengers. at least 68 are now confirmed dead. police say they're working round the clock to find the gunmen behind yesterday's shooting in central london. a seven—year—old girl was left fighting for her life following the attack outside a church. people came here to attend a funeral, to be with friends and loved ones and to mourn together and instead they were the victims of a senseless act of violence. at least 22 people killed and 72 injured during a missile strike
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on an apartment building in the eastern ukrainian city of dnipro.

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