this is bbc news. we'll have the headlines and all the main news stories for you at the top of the hour, straight after this programme. hello, everybody. a very warm welcome to talking business weekly with me, aaron heslehurst. let's go take a look at what's on the very first show for 2023. a new year has dawned, but is there any change for the deep problems facing the global economy? the war in europe continues to rage, driving up prices, interest rates, food scarcity and hardening divisions between the global economic superpowers. the imf, the international monetary fund, says a third of the world will be driven

into recession this year. its big boss there she is, managing director kristalina georgieva, joins me for an exclusive interview about the year in front of us. also on the show, as the fashion world mourns the loss of iconic designer dame vivienne westwood, we ask if the world of designer clothes will ever be as collectible as the world of art. yep. the boss of vestiaire collective, that's the global fashion resale sitejoins me to tell us what you should buy to make your wardrobe make money. wherever you'rejoining me from around the world. once again, a big hello and a warm welcome to the show. you know, while we always

like to have a warm start to the year, i'll tell you what, it's looking pretty bleak for the global economy. the pressing issues of 2022 didn't go away at the stroke of midnight on december the 31st. in a few minutes, we're going to be hearing from the managing director of the imf, the international monetary fund, kristalina georgieva. she's going to talk about the challenges the world's finances face and what needs to be done to get the global economy back on track. here's where their predictions stand right now. in 2021, while the pandemic continued to rage, the global economy grew byjust over 6%. this year, the imf is expecting it to be less than half of that. that would be the worst performance in two decades. a third of the world is forecast to be in recession this year, driven by slowdowns in china, the united states and the european union. and prices, boy, they are rising. we all know that. but here's the official imf forecast this year. it's predicting inflation to rise by six and a half percent. that's a bit lower than last

year and it should fall to around 4% in 202a. so while that growth in prices is slowing, it's still a lot higher than the targets that central banks have to meet. and so they're likely to use higher interest rates as their key tool to get inflation back down to their target. so what can be done? well, as the world's power brokers get ready for their annual meeting at the world economic forum in davos in switzerland? one voice they all listen to is the managing director of the international monetary fund, kristalina georgieva. a real pleasure, my friend, having you on the show. and kristalina, let's start with this, because you've recently said a third of the world is heading into recession this year. how deep do you think the recession could be? and importantly, kristalina, where are we talking about? what we are looking into is a tough 2023. where we would lend is to be seen.

0ur expectation is that the numbers would be possibly in line with what we have projected in october. actually, when we talk about a third of the world in recession, we do look at these two years, 22 to 23 combined. whether it would be milder recession for those that are experiencing or not would depend on developments on three fronts. one, the fight against inflation. we have seen that inflation is picking up, but that doesn't yet apply to core inflation. and therefore, central banks are bound to continue to keep conditions tight.

number two, how will china come through their relaxation of covid policies? we know there would be a couple of tough months for china. how long would that be and how deeply it would impact the chinese economy and through it, asia and the rest of the world is still to be seen. number three, the senseless war. russia still carries against ukraine. how would that impact food security? 0verall confidence is to be seen. so to sum it up, tough year, but we have seen that the world is resilient. it was resilient against covid. it shows some resilience even in this tough times in terms of how the labour market performs. so let's pray for the best and of course, be ready for these tough times.

kristalina, just very briefly, though, what parts of the world could go into recession this year? well, for sure we would see recessionary signs in europe. europe is the most dramatically hit by the war. russia still carries on against ukraine. we would see tough times in emerging markets where the combined impact of high interest rates and depreciation of local currencies, when especially they in conditions of high debt, is dramatic. in other words, you look at countries like sri lanka, like pakistan, they are faced with very difficult conditions and we don't quite yet know how the us is going to go through the year.

at this point we think the us may avoid falling into recession. basically carried forward by the confidence of us consumers and the savings they accumulated during the covid lockdowns. but we know that interest rates hit labour markets with a lag. in other words, tightening of financial conditions ultimately leads to people buying less, avoiding new housing because of high mortgage rates. and that lack of consumer confidence is still to be seen. as you know, we are already experiencing labour market disruptions. when inflation cuts the spending power of people, sooner or later they demand higher wages and if they don't get it, they're on the street. and that kind of disruption we have to be prepared for. and if i had one message to policymakers today, it is, please look into the way you can protect the most vulnerable people. given that fiscal conditions are tight and anticipate

the impact of high interest rates on labour markets early. and if i had one message to policymakers today, it is, please look into the way you can protect the most vulnerable people. given that fiscal conditions are tight and anticipate the impact of high interest rates on labour markets early. and kristalina, if we look at food prices, we know, we all know that they're much higher now. the war in ukraine has certainly hit them on multiple levels. and whilst that war goes on, do you think food costs will stay high? and i'm wondering if that could impact on stability. i'm thinking in particular countries in the middle east and parts of africa. this is an excellent question. what we have seen is food prices overall on average have trimmed down.

but there is distinct difference between north america, asia on one side, where this is more visible, in other words, food prices are lower, and sub—saharan africa, europe, where this is not yet happening. and if the deal that was struck on exporting ukrainian grain breaks down, for those that are most dependent on importing food from ukraine, and you rightly pointed out to north africa, it's going to be very, very difficult. i would move the attention today to fertilisers, because this is where we see particular threat for food production and therefore food prices in 2023. fertiliser prices remain very high. production of ammonia in the european union, for example, shrank dramatically.

all of this is connected, of course, to the impact of russia's war on gas prices and gas availability. but on a more positive note, what we do see is a stronger impetus for policymakers to quickly shift gear to address problems that are coming. in other words, we learned our lesson from the pandemic and from the war. expect the unexpected. scan the horizon for what may come. take early action. one other thing we know the war in ukraine has done is it's caused a global fragmentation broadly, kristalina, between those western countries who have imposed sanctions and others like china and india and many gulf states who have not. you have 190 countries as members. does this fragmentation concern you about the ability to take coordinated action?

it is ourjob to keep this 190 members together for the sake of macroeconomic and financial stability. and so far, we have seen a remarkable resilience among our membership to act decisively, where the fund has to step up. and myjob is to relentlessly work with the membership to recognise one simple thing. together we are much stronger than we are drifting apart. and to bring forward the evidence of the benefits of global cooperation. look, over the last 30 years, because of us working together, because of the peace dividend from the end of the cold war, the world economy tripled. emerging markets in developing economies are the biggest

beneficiaries. they quadrupled and even advanced economies doubled. in other words, we are all wealthier. so when we think about how we work together, the role of trade collaboration, we have to remember that if we fail, we all would be poorer and the world would be less secure. and kristalina, we know you're going to the world economic forum in davos. kristalina, do you think anything useful will come out of this gathering? i am optimistic. i think thatjust getting together, private sector, public sector and talking about the incredible challenges we are faced with would help us to come up with better solutions. and we know that when we put our minds and ourforces together, it is a good outcome that we reap off from it. remember in 2020, when the world came together to diagnose what the covid

crisis was and then stepped up to support businesses and households? how that helped us to avoid what could have been a great depression. now we are faced with a similar situation when the challenges are so complex that only by talking with each other, defining the problems correctly, we can have solutions to these problems. so my message to davos is strength in unity. and finally, let me end on this, kristalina, what are the bright spots? i mean, any glimmers of light? do you do you see in 2023? there are bright spots on the economic horizon, for sure. you look at a country like india that has dramatically benefited from digitalisation of its economy.

covid put digital in india on steroids and so, we see quite an impressive growth and very good performance of social services as a result. we see the concentration in africa on diversifying production of vaccines, fertilisers, so they can be more resilient to future shocks. and if i were to take one big message, that notion of resilience to shocks is penetrating strongly in the business community and among policy makers. yes, we have our work cut out for us, but at least we know that we have to have policies that build buffers, build resilience for the shocks to come, because they will. well, on that point, kristalina georgieva, my friend, the big boss of the imf, i always appreciate your time. thanks forjoining me

and i'll talk to you soon. thank you, my friend. you know, the world of second—hand clothing has traditionally been — well, it's been for charity shops. now, the hunt for a designer bargain is moving online, and for big bucks. my next guest says that 23 million people use his site to buy and sell second—hand luxury clothes and accessories. so, can your clothes increase in value, like a painting? well, i sat down and caught up with the big boss of vestiaire collective, maximilian bittner. a real pleasure having you on the show. thanks for your time. and max, let's start with this. look, as we know, i mean, it's a challenging time for the global economy, so i'm just wondering, from your perspective, are you seeing a change in in the way people are using your site? you know, i think we're really at the moment at a somewhat perfect storm in a negative sense that we see both the financial and economic crisis unfolding and at the same time, seeing the sustainability challenges that the planet is facing,

you know, colliding at the same time. and we're in this intersection between sustainability, luxury and tech. hmm—mm. if you think about it from a seller perspective, this is a period where they might face, you know, personal uncertainty, financial uncertainty. you know, let's be a bit honest, you know, people, just because it's a difficult period, will not stop being vain, will not stop being on social media. they still want to look good and they want to continue consuming these wonderful products that we buy and sell on the platform. but they can get it on our platform at a much cheaper price than they would get it first hand, so, you know, in many ways, you know, our model is somewhat built for this kind of a period of disruption. let me ask you this — you have something like 5 million pieces listed on your platform. what is it that people should be buying if they want their piece to rise as an investment, almost? yeah, and you should think about it as investment, as an asset.

we have 30,000 new items coming onto the platform every day. every day? every day, 30,000 new items. and the way i think about what i buy first hand or second hand is de facto looking at it, what has the highest likelihood to resell at a good price? and the more luxurious you go or the more hot you go or sexy you go, depending on on the brand and whatever market cycle we're in, the more likely you are able to sell it at the same, maybe even higher, or just at a smaller discount below. so, if you think about the hot brands today, you know, dior absolutely is hot. so, dior is reselling at the best price. but if you really look at it from an investment perspective, you almost need to not think luxury clothing but you need to think luxury and that's, you know, you're very quickly in the hermes bag, chanel bag or the main, you know, known watch brands that we can all think of, whether it's patek or rolex. but, sorry, are you talking

about certain products that would resell higher than the original purchase point? yeah. i mean, if you think about a birkin bag, it's probably selling at two times the original purchase. two times the price? two times, four times, because, you know, the luxury industry has constrained as business model and made itself as attractive as it is because they want to reduce the availability of the products. so, if you want to buy a birkin bag today and you go to hermes, they probably tell you to come back two years later to get it. you need to build a relationship with them over time. same with the most famous and exclusive watch brands. and if you think about vestiaire, you can go and buy these products today. what's the most expensive item in terms of price point that you've sold on the platform? in the summer of last year, we sold hermes birkin bag for 158,000 euros. sorry, 158,000 euros? yeah, it was a very unique piece. birkin bag faubourg, of which there's four different types. and you have collectors who specifically were looking for these bags, which are

almost impossible to get in the stores. 158,000 euros it was sold for. would you have known the original purchase price? i'm not 100% sure, but i would expect it to be about 15,000 to 20,000 euros. 15,000-20,000 to buy, and they sold it for 158,000? it's a pretty good investment. that's a heck of an investment! considering most other investments at the moment, yes. before i move on, can you give me any other examples of what you've seen consumers make money on — buying — buying on your site? i think you have incredibly savvy micro—entrepreneurs who buy and sell on vestiaire in some sort of ways using global arbitrage. you think about the us — historically, luxury goods are 20% more expensive than in europe. that's always been the case.

but in the last 6—10 weeks, months, with the inflation unfolding, american interest rates going up faster, obviously the euro got much weaker, as is the dollar. so we had a huge amount of american buyers, arbitrage being european prices as being much cheaper. and us sellers, despite us buyers not having to pay shipping fees, not having to pay import tariffs, it was cheaper for them to buy in europe. you're a business, obviously. how do you make your money? we take a cut. so, we take a 15% cut, on average, plus a 3% payment fee — so 18%... of the sale price? ..of every single product that's being sold on the platform. how do you police the authenticity of the goods that you sell? this is the core and the heart of our business, how we've differentiated ourselves to ebay, 12, 13 years ago when the business has been set up. we've built so much expertise through the authenticators that we have in our five global authentication hubs. so real people in these five locations? physically.

so, every time you buy a product on vestiaire, you have the option to say, "i want this product "to be physically authenticated". for any product that is north of1,000 euros or £1,000, we automatically authenticate it. and then, we have it checked by these experts. and you know, the nice story i like telling is when we started off ten—plus years ago, we've hired these experts from auction houses. the only two authenticators we've lost over the last years were actually hired by auction houses from us. right! because the only way you can get better as an authenticator is by touching as many products, you know, to practice your skill, to keep your skill up to date. max, let me ask you this — the uk is now in somewhat three years into brexit. i'm just wondering what impact did that have or possibly still having on your business?

i like explaining vestiaire as literally a microcosm of how terrible brexit has been for both europe and the uk. if you think about it from a pure economics perspective before brexit, in the uk, only around 20—25% before brexit, in the uk, only around 20—25% of products being bought by english buyers were bought from english sellers. the rest would come from europe. and the logic behind that is that uk was part of the bigger european ecosystem and part of the bigger supply and demand. and with brexit, overnight, when brexit happened, a lot of focus was on the import tariffs. but with brexit overnight, on every single product being bought and sold in europe from the uk and vice versa had a vat mark—up of up to 20%. wow. so, for every uk buyer, every european product being sold was 20% more expensive and vice versa. so literally overnight, all the products became 20% more expensive. and on top of that, you add the complexity of the customs

and the extra time to have those products pass through customs and so, it had a huge impact on our business — i mean, our overall revenue went down 20%, 30% literally overnight. wow. we've recovered now, but our business has completely been transformed from a — historically uk being part of europe business, ie 25%, only being bought from uk sellers — to now 75%, 80% being uk to uk business. so, it's been a dramatic impact. and for us as a business itself, this is mainly the impact on uk buyers and sellers suffering from not being part of the bigger supply and demand market. but for us as a business, the complexity of shipping the products. but the main thing was that we used to have our products authenticated outside of paris, so we had to build a new logistics operation, a new authentication hub in crawley. here in the uk? so, south—west of london, and had to rebuild our presence basically, so we had

to completely rethink the uk not being part of the european union any more. max, let me end on this. 0n the 29th of december last year, the queen of british fashion, dame vivienne westwood, iconic fashion designer, unfortunately passed away at the age of 81. how does the death of a designer impact the value of their designs? firstly, i think it's important to highlight how tragic this is. i mean, just to think about it, we have our main management boardroom where i spend most of my meetings and it's actually called vivienne westwood. no, really? so, it's really our main meeting room in paris on the third floor, it's called vivienne westwood. so i spend most of my time. "i'll see you in vivienne westwood." so for us, it's very meaningful because she's in many ways been the pioneer of — of thinking sustainable around the way you consume and thinking sustainable about the whole industry and so, it's very tragic for us.

and i think we just see her as one of the icons that inspired the founders to build the business that it is today. you know, again, if something like this happens, we do see spikes in interest. you know, these brands become... you mean — sorry, if a designer does pass away, you'll see a spike in...? we've had, you know, sadly, i think last year, quite a few of the more known designers have passed away and every time something like this happens, we do see spikes in search for these products. well, on that point, maximilian bittner, a real pleasure having you on the show. thanks for your time, mate. thanks so much for having me. thank you. well, that's it for this week. i hope you enjoyed the show. don't forget, you can keep up with the latest on our global economy on the bbc website or the smartphone app. of course, you can also follow me on twitter. tweet me, i'll tweet you back. you can get me @bbcaaron. thanks for watching. i'll see you soon. bye— bye.

hello again. i'm sure you'd agree, it's been a very bitter start to the new working week, but there have been some stunning, sunny skies with some snowy scenes around as well — that was overlooking skiddaw, in cumbria earlier on monday. but the other story we've been covering hasn't gone away either — we still have lots of flood warnings in force, the majority across stretches of the severn, the river avon, and for groundwater flooding in the south. and although we'll continue to see snow showers across northern and western areas over the next few hours, leading to icy conditions, actually with water still seeping from fields after our recent very wet spell of weather and a widespread sharp frost, temperatures minus three to minus seven widely. well, you can imagine the roads are going to turn very icy heading into tuesday morning,

so could be quite dangerous actually underfoot and under—tyre first thing in the morning. and, with temperatures down as low as minus 10 in scotland, freezing cold start further snow showers piling in through the day across northwestern areas. so, really, it's northern and western areas of scotland across northern ireland, the north—west of both england and wales will be prone to seeing further accumulations of snow. modest hills could see another 5—10 centimetres in places. and after that cold, frosty, icy start to the day, even in the sunshine — which many of us will have a lot of — well, temperatures will struggle to get much above freezing. it will feel pretty bitter. more of that to come on wednesday, as well. another cold, frosty, icy start to the day. could see rather more in the way of showers just clipping the east coast of england, and some heavier showers work across northern ireland into parts of wales and south—west england — probably hear more of a mixture, a bit of rain, a bit of sleet, a bit of hill snow mixed in, and temperatures just climbing to about seven in cardiff and plymouth —

so signs that temperatures are very slowly starting to tick upwards. by thursday, after a frosty and cold start again, showers will probably become more restricted to the north—east of scotland. otherwise, a lot of dry and sunny weather. but after, again, a freezing cold start to the day, temperatures climb this time to reach highs of maybe eight towards plymouth. 0therwise, about 3—6 pretty widely. if you really don't like the cold weather, well, you'll have to wait till the weekend before we get something a lot milder, as south—westerly winds return across the country. with that, there'll be a lot more in the way of cloud heading into the weekend with a bit of rain around as well. but eventually, temperatures widely will be back into double figures.

welcome to bbc news. i'm rich preston. our top stories: no survivors, but sunday's fatal plane crash in nepal raises a raft of questions. the pilot allegedly didn't report any problems on the approach. hundreds of police officers are continuing their work here. they've given up hope on finding any survivors, but now, as they pick through the wreckage, they're trying to find clues to work out how this tragedy happened. a former commander in the russian paramilitary organisation, wagner, has claimed asylum in norway after deserting the mercenary group. police in romania say they're widening their investigation into the social media influencer andrew tate who's

facing charges of human trafficking and rape.