this is bbc news, the headlines... the uk will be the only major economy to shrink in 2023, according to the international monetary fund, although it says there'll be better news next year. paperchase goes into administration. tesco will take over, but announces over 2,000 supermarketjobs are at risk. five years after a report into the treatment of the families of the hillsborough disaster the police apologise and promise "cultural change". children are being exposed to online pornography — a new report says one in four see x—rated material before finishing primary school.

the princess of wales says her new campaign on early years development will be her "life's work". the eurovision song contest arrives in liverpool as the official handover takes place in liverpool today with "united in music" as this year's slogan. good afternoon, welcome to bbc news. the uk economy will perform worse than all other major advanced nations this year, including russia. that's according to the international monetary fund, which suggests the economy will shrink by 0.6%. that's a sharp downgrade from an earlier prediction, although they do say the uk is now "on the right track". the chancellor, jeremy hunt,

said the uk had outperformed many forecasts last year. here's our economics correspondent, andy verity. british workers don't need a washington financial institution to tell them that rocketing prices for energy and food are making them poorer and the economy weaker. that is true the world over. economists at the imf forecast our economy will be worst hit than others this year, the only one among 15 advanced economies to shrink. that is partly because the government is doing less than other countries to shield households from high wholesale gas prices, so we will pay higher energy bills. we have a very challenging environment in the united kingdom, an energy crisis that is very strong and in a country that has a high dependence on liquid nitrogen gas and a high pass through of the wholesale price to the retail price so this is adding to the cost of living crisis. as a response to this high inflation there is a tightening of monetary policy by the bank of england and in the uk this feeds

quickly into mortgages. while falling prices for commodities from oil to gas and slowing inflation have improved the outlook for growth across the world, in the uk the outlook has been getting worse. in its previous forecast the imf expected the uk to grow by 0.3% in 2023, better than some other advanced economies. now it is expecting it to shrink by 0.6%, considerably worse. the imf expects the uk economy to do worse than other advanced economies not because of global factors, but domestic policy. the bank of england is raising interest rates and the government said it wants to restrain spending at the same time as it as it is raising more in tax from households, not less. all of that takes money out of the economy so households and firms have less money to spend on everything else and that is what slows the economy down. according to data from the marketing consultants kantor index, consumers are also facing inflation in grocery prices of over 16%. everything, milk, butter, cheese,

bacon, everything pretty much and it's notjust 5p or 10p, you are talking 25p, 30 p. the account balance is definitely a bit lower after buying a whole load of groceries and stuff but you just get on with it. it's something you have to get on with, unfortunately. everything seems to be going up so it isjust another— part of it, i think. this year is going to be probably a year of stagnant growth. that is really bad after a long period of very poor growth growth. we should be recovering quickly after covid. we are not. most households are going to be worst off over the period of this year, but it is going to look confusing because i think on thursday the bank of england is going to say things are better than they thought they were in the autumn, still not good at all, but better than they thought they were in the autumn. the government pointed to imf comments that the government's policy was on the right track, with the uk forecast to grow faster thanjapan or germany in the coming years. some economists on the bank of england's monetary policy committee already think that raising interest rates again could hit

the economic breaks to hide when we may already be in recession. tomorrow the committee will meet to decide its next move. 0ur economics correspondent, andy verity is with me now. whenever you interview anyone on the government side about the state of the economy they will point out that there are big internationalfactors at play and we know all about the war in ukraine and so on. but there will be people listening to your report thinking, if it is global, why is the uk performing so badly according to the imf? that why is the uk performing so badly according to the imf?— why is the uk performing so badly according to the imf? that is right. last ear according to the imf? that is right. last year we _ according to the imf? that is right. last year we did — according to the imf? that is right. last year we did relatively - according to the imf? that is right. last year we did relatively well, - last year we did relatively well, 4.1% growth, better than other countries, but this year the imf says we will do worse. the reason is we are more susceptible to high wholesale gas prices than other economies because we are not offering as big a cushion to households and firms as say, the french are. this means when you get high wholesale gas prices as we have had for the last few months, they

feed through into our bills. that means we have less money to spend on everything else. we also have higher inflation than other economies. in the uk it was 10.5% at the last count and in the eurozone it is 9%, less than 10%. in the us it is less than 7%. that is worse and therefore they are anticipating that the bank of england will have to raise interest rates faster in order to try to head off inflation. the mechanism for that is to raise interest rates and those people with variable rate mortgages have to pay more and they have got less money to spend on everything else. similarly, the government with its fiscal policy, its tax and spend economy, is taking money out of the economy. the last public finance numbers show we are paying more in income tax than we were last year for various technical reasons to do with the fact they are focusing on the threshold. more of us are paying higher rates of tax and more tax money is going into the treasury and we have got less to spend and therefore the economy slows down. it

is really policy reasons, what the government and the bank of england are doing, in order to try and slow inflation down, which makes the uk economic prospects worse. {lila inflation down, which makes the uk economic prospects worse. 0k, andy, thank ou economic prospects worse. 0k, andy, thank you very — economic prospects worse. 0k, andy, thank you very much _ economic prospects worse. 0k, andy, thank you very much for _ economic prospects worse. 0k, andy, thank you very much for now. - economic prospects worse. 0k, andy, thank you very much for now. our - thank you very much for now. our economics correspondent andy verity. let's stay with this topic. we can speak now to craig beaumont, who is the chief of external affairs at the federation of small businesses. good afternoon. the figures that the imf is talking about, the outlook the imf is predicting for this country, to what extent does that tally with what the people you represent value? it is tally with what the people you represent value?— tally with what the people you represent value? tally with what the people you reresent value? , ,. , , represent value? it is bad news, but it is not a surprise. _ represent value? it is bad news, but it is not a surprise. all— represent value? it is bad news, but it is not a surprise. all small - it is not a surprise. all small businesses are feeling the pressure right now. you have got high interest rates, high energy bills coming in april, and problems with cash balances. all of this was pointed to by the imf. i would agree with your correspondent andy that a lot of policy decisions have been taken that are feeding into this.

when a minister came out at lunchtime in parliament and said, oh, well, the uk is not immune to global pressures, well, the globe is growing, the global market rate for next year, sorry gdp rate, it will grow by 2.9%, and we are looking at that very fondly rather than facing a 0.6% contraction. so we are not surprised, but there are things the government can do and all pressure is on the chancellor's budget in march when he has to come with some growth measures. there is no current growth measures. there is no current growth plan for the uk and i think it is time we had one. he mentioned the buduet it is time we had one. he mentioned the budget in _ it is time we had one. he mentioned the budget in march. _ it is time we had one. he mentioned the budget in march. what - it is time we had one. he mentioned the budget in march. what specific l the budget in march. what specific business measures to help business are you members saying they really need to see?— are you members saying they really need to see? energy. in your report ou need to see? energy. in your report you correctly — need to see? energy. in your report you correctly state _ need to see? energy. in your report you correctly state about _ need to see? energy. in your report you correctly state about the - you correctly state about the pressure on domestic, but there is a consumer cap that will continue beyond april on domestic bills. for small businesses that is not the case, which means if prices were to rise, if putin does do anything to

escalate the conflict in ukraine, we will see those prices rise and that will see those prices rise and that will feed through very fast into small business energy bills. we could be back to exactly where we were when we spoke last summer, when were when we spoke last summer, when we were breaking the story about massively rocketing energy bills for small businesses. there is an argument you need a scheme more in line with the one that was put in place in october. i think energy would be number one. numbertwo, as a cash flow issues, so late payments. it slows down the economy, cash reserves are really low, one in eight small businesses do not have any cash reserves and one in three have less than three months. so quite a fragile status. finally, look at people. it has been really hard to recruit. all small employers say it has been really difficult, 78% struggled in the last few months. we could do with some policy decisions there. on that what i think government might be doing something for march. so we are

looking at energy, cash flow and people. looking at energy, cash flow and eo - le. , looking at energy, cash flow and --eole. , u, , looking at energy, cash flow and --eole. , ., looking at energy, cash flow and neale, , ., ., people. energy, cash flow and --eole, people. energy, cash flow and people. that _ people. energy, cash flow and people. that is _ people. energy, cash flow and people, that is important - people. energy, cash flow and people, that is important to i people, that is important to remember. given the issues that you outline, how many of the businesses do you represent say that they are investigating —— investing at the moment or have the money or the wherewithal to invest? i moment or have the money or the wherewithal to invest?— wherewithal to invest? i think if ou look wherewithal to invest? i think if you look at _ wherewithal to invest? i think if you look at that _ wherewithal to invest? i think if you look at that and _ wherewithal to invest? i think if you look at that and look - wherewithal to invest? i think if you look at that and look at - wherewithal to invest? i think if| you look at that and look at what the government has done, some of the more recent decisions have directly undermined that. one was the cancellation of the sme r&d tax credit beneficiaries. if you are a big business doing r and d, you get support, if you are a small business, you struggle. that is coming in in april. help to grow, one of the government's flagship schemes for small businesses to invest has gone. we are looking at new ideas and one of them is to link investment to net zero, calling for a scheme called help to green to help small businesses who have no cash but who can do the right thing for the economy and the environment

if they invest in net zero reforms. we think the government may listen on that one. we think the government may listen on that one-— on that one. craig, good to talk to ou now. on that one. craig, good to talk to you now- craig _ on that one. craig, good to talk to you now. craig bowman _ on that one. craig, good to talk to you now. craig bowman from - on that one. craig, good to talk to you now. craig bowman from thel you now. craig bowman from the federation of small businesses. we will talk more about that imf report and predictions for the uk economy over the course of the afternoon. right now we will turn to one of our other major stories. police chiefs have promised a "cultural change" as they apologised to families of hillsborough victims, almost 3a years on from the disaster. the pledge comes with the publication of a national police response to a report by the former bishop of liverpool into the experiences of the hillsborough families. 97 people died as a a result of the crush on the terraces at the sheffield wednesday ground in 1989. 0ur north of england correspondent judith moritz has this report. the horror of hillsborough continues to be felt almost 3a years after the crush on the terraces that killed 97 liverpool supporters.

police failures were the main cause of the disaster, but the fans were wrongly blamed and, for years, theirfamilies fought forjustice. # walk on, walk on with hope...# in 2016, they rejoiced when fresh inquests returned verdicts of unlawful killing. the former bishop of liverpool, jamesjones, was then commissioned to write a report about the experience of the hillsborough families to ensure their pain and suffering wouldn't be repeated. the government is yet to respond. i think we have to put ourselves in the shoes of the families. this year, it will be 3a years since the tragedy. and for them to wait for so long for a response to these 25 points of learning is intolerable and adds to their pain and, i think, in some instances, even affects their own grieving.

let's hope that's only the beginning of what's going to be done. margaret aspinall, whose sonjames was killed, is one of those who has campaigned on behalf of the hillsborough families. she is also critical of the time it's taken to hear from government. i rememberwriting — idon't know who it was to, to somebody in government — to say i hope this report does not get put on a shelf gathering dust for years, like other things in the past have done. we are now into 2023. how long does it take to read a report, to come out with your findings of what you think should happen? when bishopjames published this report in 2017, he included 25 recommendations, just under half of which were directed at the police. today's response by the police is the first since then by a major public authority and it includes the first—ever apology for hillsborough on behalf of all the police forces in england and wales.

there are calls for there to be a hillsborough law which would help victims of future mass tragedies. the government says it will publish its response to the bishop's report in due course. judith moritz, bbc news. tesco has bought the stationary brand paperchase hours after it fell into administration. but it won't be taking on any of its 106 stores or the 800 or so workers employed by the business. the loss—making firm has been hit by falling sales and rising costs. its stores are still trading normally, for now, but customers are being advised to use gift cards as soon as possible. our business correspondent emma simpsonjoins me now. we have heard the outline, but why do tesco want to take and paper chase, albeit not the shops? paper chase, albeit not the shops? paper

chase is clearly _ chase, albeit not the shops? paper chase is clearly a _ chase, albeit not the shops? paper chase is clearly a very _ chase, albeit not the shops? paper chase is clearly a very good - chase, albeit not the shops? i—ne chase is clearly a very good brand. there was quite a lot of interest in it. but tesco wanted the brand and it. but tesco wanted the brand and it didn't want the stores and the staff. for tesco it was saying it is a much loved brand and they were very proud to have the brand in its stores. clearly this would work in its larger stores. tesco is selling fewer electricals and technology, sales in its stores, and it is moving into more clothing and home brands. of course, they will see this as complementary and it could work very well, we will have to wait and see what its plans are. as for why paper chase went under, it went into administration this morning. that was much expected. this is a business that has had a challenging few years. four years ago it did a form of insolvency proceedings to cut costs and save money with lower rents in stores and cutting jobs. backin

rents in stores and cutting jobs. back injanuary rents in stores and cutting jobs. back in january 2021 rents in stores and cutting jobs. back injanuary 2021 in the teeth of the pandemic it went into administration then and was rescued. it saw a total collapse in its sales over its crucial christmas trading. it was rescued and another private owner comes in and then it was bought again last august. it has fallen over less than six months later. i think that is a combination of falling sales and rising costs. a lot of the stores were in train stations and there have been fewer commuters, reduced footfall, and that has exacerbated them. so these latest owners hoisted the for sale signs and no viable owners came through and here we are today. it went under. but tesco has bought the brand. but it does leave the future of the stores, about 106 of them, and the workers, and a real threat. yes, absolutely. it is a lot of people. and tesco announcing other

changes today more broadly. yes. people. and tesco announcing other changes today more broadly. yes, so tesco today — changes today more broadly. yes, so tesco today announced _ changes today more broadly. yes, so tesco today announced some - changes today more broadly. yes, so tesco today announced some big - tesco today announced some big changes in the way that it runs its stores. so, 1750 team manager, lead manager roles, going across its larger stores. what it is doing is it says it is creating 1800 new shift leader stores. this is at a lower tier and for lower pay, but they say these people will have the responsibility of day—to—day operations in the stores, leaving the hire managers to get on with more managerial tasks involving colleagues. what they are saying is these people who are doing two manager roles, yes, you can apply for these new, lower roles, we will keep you at the same pay, your pay will be protected for two years, or you can take redundancy. at face value of those 1750 roles are at risk. they are also closing all their remaining counters and top

delicatessens they have. they have already closed most of them and they will be closing the remaining ones, and that will not involve job losses because those roles will go elsewhere. the otherjobs, 350 jobs at risk in various parts of the business. its pharmacies are closing, they are reducing the hours at some post offices. a small number ofjobs are going at head office and they are closing a maintenance centre in milton keynes which basically takes calls and organises the upkeep of the stores. in the round you have got more than 2000 roles at risk at britton's biggest retailer as it really tries to reshape its business. all the big supermarkets over the last few years have been making big changes. they have been making big changes. they have got to cut costs, save money and fend off those pesky discounters which are growing sales and stealing shoppers. which are growing sales and stealing sho ers. ., which are growing sales and stealing sho ers. . ., ~ which are growing sales and stealing sho ers. . ., ,, i. , which are growing sales and stealing sho ers. ., ., ~' ,, , . shoppers. emma, thank you very much. bi chances shoppers. emma, thank you very much. big changes in — shoppers. emma, thank you very much. big changes in retail. _ shoppers. emma, thank you very much. big changes in retail. emma _ shoppers. emma, thank you very much. big changes in retail. emma simpson, l big changes in retail. emma simpson, our business correspondence.

the headlines on bbc news... the uk will be the only major economy to shrink in 2023, according to the international monetary fund although it says there'll be better news next year. tesco takes over paperchase as the stationary chain goes into administration — this comes as it also announces over two thousand supermarketjobs are at risk. five years after a report into the treatment of the families of the hillsborough disaster the police apologise and promise �*cultural change'. a quarter of children have seen pornography by the time they leave primary school, according to a report for the children's commissioner for england. dame rachel de souza said the finding was "deeply concerning" and warned that teenagers were often viewing porn involving violence towards women.

let's speak now to our technology correspondent, shiona mccallum, who's is in glasgow for us. the findings of this report are really disturbing.— the findings of this report are really disturbing. absolutely. very disturbinr really disturbing. absolutely. very disturbing and _ really disturbing. absolutely. very disturbing and shocking. _ really disturbing. absolutely. very disturbing and shocking. one - really disturbing. absolutely. very disturbing and shocking. one in i really disturbing. absolutely. very| disturbing and shocking. one in ten children saying they had seen pornography by the age of nine and half saying that they had seen it by the age of 13. 80% of 18—year—olds saying it was notjust a standard pornography that they had seen, but pornography that they had seen, but pornography involving sexual violence. and half of them thought that sex was supposed to involve physical aggression. that sex was supposed to involve physicalaggression. it that sex was supposed to involve physical aggression. it is notjust the statistics that are coming out of this report which looked at 1016 to 21—year—olds across england, but it is the implications of what seeing that pornography can have on

their interactions with their peers and about their understanding of not just what sex is, but also relationships as well. dame rachel, who commissioned this report, was really keen to highlight the impact on well—being and just the general kind of stress that this can cause when children see it. they can't really annunciate and the damage that that can have on them. is the suggestion — that that can have on them. is the suggestion that — that that can have on them. is the suggestion that this _ that that can have on them. is the suggestion that this is _ that that can have on them. is the suggestion that this is simply - suggestion that this is simply because you can see it on a phone and pass it amongst your friends and thatis and pass it amongst your friends and that is how it happens and does the children's commission have any ideas and recommendations as to what can be done as a result of these findings?— be done as a result of these findinrs? . , , findings? clearly parents across the country will — findings? clearly parents across the country will be _ findings? clearly parents across the country will be thinking _ findings? clearly parents across the country will be thinking how- findings? clearly parents across the country will be thinking how do - findings? clearly parents across the country will be thinking how do i - country will be thinking how do i protect my child from the exposure to this? 80% of people that had seen the pornography had seen it on social media, the highest being twitter and adult content sites. i have spoken to the parent of

18—year—old boy and he said hejust typed in a couple of swear words into google and up had come pornography. clearly there are things you can do, controls on your wi—fi, taking certain apps of the ipad, not letting your child take their smartphone up to bed or be unsupervised on the internet, all things that parents can implement. but then you can't control who your child is next to in the playground and what smartphone they might have and what smartphone they might have and what smartphone they might have and what content is available. it is very difficult to protect your children completely from this. another line of interest for dame rachel is the 0nline safety bill. this has been heralded as perhaps the key to stopping this amount of pornography that is readily available because age verification is something they are put into the bill. but as you have discussed on the programme many times, this bill has been going back and forth in parliament for a few years now, it is not law, and in the meantime children are still being exposed to

this content online.— thousands of ambulance workers in england are to go on strike again next week in a long—running dispute over pay and staffing. our health editor, hugh pym has the latest. no sign of a resolution or any sign of pay talks taking place and one of the health unions, unison, now setting a new strike date of friday 10th february for ambulance staff in some parts of england, adding to walk—outs, strikes elsewhere in the nhs earlier in the week. they will take place every day apart from wednesday. and, of course, the big one which nhs leaders are really quite worried about will be walk—outs by ambulance staff and nurses on the same day for the first time, that will be on monday in england and wales. the government position covering england is that there is no money for paying more than the existing pay award for this financial year, they think adding to what's already

there will be unaffordable and not fair. but they've urged unions to engage with the pay review body process for the next financial year beginning in april. some unions said they will not take part in this and it emerged today the government has not submitted its own evidence to the pay review body process. the chair of that body, giving evidence at a select committee of the commons this morning, said there was a deadline of the 11th of january and ministers had missed that, and she still hadn't had evidence but was expected to come up with a recommendation in april. the chair of that commons select committee, a conservative mp, steve brine, said he thought this was astonishing and he was going to ask ministers what was going on. quite a lot of confusion over the process, it has to be said, and no obvious way at this stage of a way out of this pay dispute in the nhs.

0ur health editor, hugh pym. a £10,000 reward is being offered in the hunt for constance marten, her partner mark gordon and their newborn baby. the family were last seen in east sussex more than three weeks ago. police believe they're sleeping rough and are concerned for the baby. mr gordon is a convicted sex offender and ms marten, who grew up in a stately home, has been estranged from her wealthy family for several years. an inquest has heard that a young woman who was mauled while out walking dogs at a beauty spot in surrey earlier this month died of "multiple" bites to her neck. natasha johnston, who was 28, suffered shock and haemorrhage when she was attacked in caterham. our correspondent duncan kennedy is at the inquest in woking. it isa it is a very distressing case, duncan, explain what has been happening today. that duncan, explain what has been happening today-— duncan, explain what has been happening today. that is right. this was a very short — happening today. that is right. this was a very short hearing _ happening today. that is right. this was a very short hearing in - happening today. that is right. this was a very short hearing in the - was a very short hearing in the

corner�*s caught behind me in front of the surrey coroner, reallyjust a hearing to formally identify natasha johnston. the coroner said she was 28 years old and she was a dog walker. we know thatjust over two weeks ago she was walking eight dogs of different breeds on those beautiful hills just outside caterham and something happened. we don't know what happened yet, what the details were, but for some reason one or more of those dogs turned on her and attacked her and natasha later died. the coroner today said that she had been bitten multiple times by those dogs and the cause of death was shock and loss of blood. the coroner passed on his sincere condolences to natasha's family and said the full inquest will take place at the end ofjune. we have already had a statement from surrey police. they say their investigation has been completed, there have been no crimes committed so they will not be any prosecutions

in this case. we also understand that some or all of those dogs involved are still being held for some undisclosed tests, some undisclosed further investigations. it is not clear what is going on with that, but we understand that process is continuing. and of course we had that very poignant statement from natasha's own family in which they said they were going through a very difficult time and they wished to be left in peace to carry on their grieving.— to be left in peace to carry on their grieving. to be left in peace to carry on their arrievin. , , ., their grieving. duncan kennedy at their grieving. duncan kennedy at the corners _ their grieving. duncan kennedy at the corner's court _ their grieving. duncan kennedy at the corner's court in _ their grieving. duncan kennedy at the corner's court in woking - their grieving. duncan kennedy at the corner's court in woking in i the corner�*s court in woking in surrey. a plan to halt the decline of nature in england by 2030 has been unveiled by the government. it includes a commitment to create or expand 25 national nature reserves, and a pledge to ensure that everyone in england lives within 15 minutes walk of a green space or water. but the campaigning body friends of the earth has described the plans as "rehashed commitments". helen briggs reports.

things are getting tough for nature. wildlife is in decline, rivers are blighted by pollution, and there is an ever growing mountain of the stuff we throw away. the government has set ambitious targets to turn the tide on the laws of nature and in new plans announced today it promises to give every household in england access to green spaces or water within 15 minutes of their home. . ., , ., , home. over the coming five years we will see the — home. over the coming five years we will see the restoration _ home. over the coming five years we will see the restoration of— home. over the coming five years we will see the restoration of large - will see the restoration of large areas of habitat across the country. some of that will be in towns and cities, some in remote, wild areas. we will use a different range of tools to do this, including the new agricultural policy, plus the declaration of a large number of new natural nature reserves. this declaration of a large number of new natural nature reserves.— natural nature reserves. this little while space _ natural nature reserves. this little while space shows _ natural nature reserves. this little while space shows how— natural nature reserves. this little while space shows how nature - natural nature reserves. this little while space shows how nature canj while space shows how nature can thrive avian in the heart of a bustling city. trees, grass and water provide space for wildlife and a place for people to enjoy.

campaigners point to cami street nature reserve in london as a great example of how nature can be restored, even in the most unexpected places, but they question how the plan launched today here will deliver where others have failed. , , ., , will deliver where others have failed. , , failed. these plans can absolutely be delivered _ failed. these plans can absolutely be delivered but _ failed. these plans can absolutely be delivered but my _ failed. these plans can absolutely be delivered but my goodness - failed. these plans can absolutely be delivered but my goodness we | failed. these plans can absolutely - be delivered but my goodness we have to see a much greater focus on delivery and we have got to see the money following through on this. at the moment we are not seeing nearly enough money going in to actually putting nature in recovery across the uk. we have got to make sure the whole of government is behind this. it is no good if it is just the department of environment and then undercut by other departments, there has got to be complete focus on this from the whole of government. creating space for nature on the scale needed will be a huge challenge. early this month the government was my own green watchdog said too little progress had been made and with the targets set to halt the decline in wildlife by 2030, the task ahead is vast. helen

briggs, bbc news. much more coming up briggs, bbc news. much more coming up in the next half an hour. much more coming up in the next half an hour. now it's time for a look at the weather with stav danaos. a stormy spell of weather on its way across scotland tonight with severe gales for some of us. generally today throughout the day across the south once we have lost that early morning cloud it will be dry with plenty of sunshine. most of the showers have been piling into scotland, some heavy, some rumbles of thunder and winter arenas over the high ground is as well. these are the temperatures as we head into the evening. eight or nine in the south, five or six in the north, but the windsor star to pick up this evening, certainly into the middle part of the night —— the winds start to pick up, up to 80 miles an hour. it is likely to cause disruption here as we head into wednesday morning. longerspells here as we head into wednesday morning. longer spells of rain affecting scotland and northern

ireland. furthersouth affecting scotland and northern ireland. further south it is going to be a much quieter night. clear spells and temperatures range from three to 5 degrees across the country. hello, this is bbc news. the headlines: the uk will be the only major economy to shrink in 2023, according to the international monetary fund — although it says there'll be better news next year. tesco takes over paperchase as the stationary chain goes into administration — this comes as it also announces over 2,000 supermarketjobs are at risk. children are being exposed to online pornography — a new report says one in four see x—rated material before finishing primary school. the princess of wales

says her new campaign on early years development will be her "life's work". the eurovision song contest arrives in liverpool — with "united in music" as this year's slogan. sport now and a full round up from the bbc sport centre. good afternoon. we're in for a busy afternoon and evening, ahead of tonight's football transfer window closing. chelsea have been the biggest spenders across this window and the last. more on that in a moment but amidst plenty of speculation two agreed deals to bring you: the first involving manchester city fullbackjoao cancelo, who's fallen out of favour with pep guardiola and has now joined bayern munich on loan until the end of the season. the german champions will have the option to sign him in the summerforjust over £60 million. chelsea have spent over half

a billion pounds across the last two transfer windows, they are making some money back. one man who looks to be heading out of stamford bridge is italian midfielderjorginho. chelsea have agreed a £12 million deal for him to move to arsenal. keeping across all the coming and goings is ourfootball reporter simon stone. 0ne one of your busiest days of the year. it makes sense to start with chelsea. they are also being linked to the biggest move of the day, what do you make of what's happening there? it is quite amazing and we spoke about the numbers in the summer, £270 million spent, the second—highest window spend on record and if the deal for enzo fernandez ghostly which will be a british record, £105 million —— goes through. they would then spend more injanuary then through. they would then spend more in january then they spent through. they would then spend more injanuary then they spent in the summer and thatjust about injanuary then they spent in the summer and that just about sums injanuary then they spent in the summer and thatjust about sums up the chelsea policy at the moment. there are chelsea officials in portugal and they have been given an indication that this deal can be done and there is optimism that it

will be done so it is quite an amazing year at chelsea at a time when we thought they might curb their spending a bit more after the exit of roman abramovich. i mentioned jorginho's going. paris st—germain are in advanced talks with chelsea over a permanent or loan move for morocco forward hakim ziyech. what else has caught your eye? the interesting thing, pedro, he is in london at the moment, he is having a medical with tottenham, and thatis having a medical with tottenham, and that is going to be a loan, and that an obligation to buy with it, and that will cost tottenham £40 million in the summer, and another interesting thing i have been to a manchester united press conference at the manager erik ten hag was talking about christian eriksen who has been ruled out until the beginning of may with an ankle injury and he said it is difficult to do deals on transfer deadline day when he was asked about potential

replacements. manchester united do have an interest in new nick's austria international marcel schmelzer, and they are not saying much on this at the moment but that is something that could happen before the deadline this evening. for now, thanks forjoining us. keep across all of that on the bbc website. it is also the women's transfer deadline today, the window for domestic transfers in the wsl closes at 5pm, we can bring you an update in the last hour on england forward alessia russo. arsenal have been told by manchester united that russo is not for sale at any price after rejecting a second world—record bid of almost £500,000 for the player. russo's contract is up in the summer. don't forget you can keep across all of the latest speculation and confirmed deals throughout the day on the bbc sport website.

there's also a special transfer deadline day edition of the football news show. deadline day live will be on the bbc iplayer and on bbc news from 10 0'clock tonight. warren gatland has named his welsh side to face ireland at a sold out principality stadium in the opening round of the six nations on saturday. leigh halfpenny will return and make a first wales start for 19 months after a serious knee injury and joe hawkins makes his six nations debut at inside centre. gatland has decided he'll partner the nation's most—capped men's international back george north in the midfield. alun wynjones starts, while dann biggar is back at fly—half after missing the autumn internationals. he has been one of the top defensive fullbacks in world rugby now for a number of years. so much so that i have seen new zealand teams take out clips of him defensively and positionally and use that as part of their review process as well, so it

is good to see him back. he has been training well and we have two experienced players in that position that are going to compete pretty hard. i'mjust looking that are going to compete pretty hard. i'm just looking forward to seeing them get out on the field. and leicestershire have signed former india cricket captain ajinkya rahane for the final four months of the 2023 season. the 34—year—old batter will be available after indian premier league duty with chennai super kings for eight county championship matches and the entire 0ne—day cup. that's all the sport for now. thanks forjoining us. before we talk about the economy and the report today, some more dates coming through about strike action. 0ne through about strike action. one more day, actually. this is a strike by thousands of environment agency workers and we are hearing that they will strike on the 8th of february

in their continuing dispute about pay and that is just coming through from the unison union so staff working for the environment agency will strike on the 8th of february. they had another strike earlier this month so another strike by people working for the environment agency in a dispute about pay. later we will talk about the strikes in france which you may be aware of, thatis france which you may be aware of, that is coming up. more now on our top story this afternoon — the prediction by the international monetary fund that the uk economy will shrink by 0.6% this year. that's worse than any other major advanced nation. let's talk about the impact of this with helen barnard, associate director at thejoseph rowntree foundation, a think tank focused on tackling poverty in the uk. thanks forjoining us. the imf say

it will be tough times, so your thoughts?— it will be tough times, so your thou:hts? _, ., ., ., ., . it will be tough times, so your thou:hts? . . ., thoughts? good afternoon. we knew that she was — thoughts? good afternoon. we knew that she was going _ thoughts? good afternoon. we knew that she was going to _ thoughts? good afternoon. we knew that she was going to be _ thoughts? good afternoon. we knew that she was going to be bad - thoughts? good afternoon. we knew that she was going to be bad and - thoughts? good afternoon. we knewj that she was going to be bad and the last outlook was not great but this suggests it could be even worse. the main thing is that we will be looking out for, it is likely unemployment will rise, if the economy goes into recession, and one of the things that may mean is that all the people that we know the government wants to get off the inactivity into work, may find it even harder because when you have got people flowing out ofjobs, they are quite often, employers are keen to take them on, rather than people have been out of work for a while you may have health conditions and caring, so we will need to think about that. it is also highly likely that service actors, so retail, hospitality, could suffer because people have less money in their pockets —— service sectors. lower earners are concentrated in those sectors so that could actually

increase the pressure on people who are already financially in a weaker position. are already financially in a weaker osition. ., ., . are already financially in a weaker osition. ., .. , ., position. one of the fact is that the imf points _ position. one of the fact is that the imf points to _ position. one of the fact is that the imf points to when - position. one of the fact is that the imf points to when it - position. one of the fact is that the imf points to when it talks| the imf points to when it talks about why the uk is performing in this way as compared to other countries is because energy bills and we know about those and the impact and in the spring help with energy bills on the domestic front goes away?— energy bills on the domestic front goes away? energy bills on the domestic front roesawa? , ~ goes away? yes, it is scaled back. a lot of people — goes away? yes, it is scaled back. a lot of people are _ goes away? yes, it is scaled back. a lot of people are very _ goes away? yes, it is scaled back. a lot of people are very worried about | lot of people are very worried about that. this report also highlights some of the longer term weaknesses that have left us exposed, so the fact that the housing market is so dysfunctional, which means that people who have been able to get onto the housing market have high levels of debt and are very exposed to interest rates going up, mortgages going up, the fact we have had a decade where we have basically its paddled energy efficiency measures which has meant we are more exposed to the energy prices compared to other european

neighbours. and we have a jobs market where we have a lot of people in very insecure jobs with their income is fluctuating and they cannot build up savings and they are not getting training so we have a lot of people exposed to this. the other thing i would say is, we know this will be a tough year, so those lifelines people turn to when times are tough need to be adequate and strong enough, in particular social security, and we saw the government use that effectively end the pandemic to protect people and we need that to be strong to make sure we do not see even more people poured into even deeper hardship which is bad in itself but it also has very serious health consequences which will hold back the recovery. we also know how much the support costs, and do you believe we are in a position where the government can dig deep into pockets again when it would say i remember how much was spent during the pandemic? —— when

it would say, remember. irate spent during the pandemic? -- when it would say, remember.— it would say, remember. we need to think that it — it would say, remember. we need to think that it was _ it would say, remember. we need to think that it was exposed _ it would say, remember. we need to think that it was exposed to - it would say, remember. we need to think that it was exposed to this - think that it was exposed to this and in the pandemic we had a lot of very expensive universal support but what we need now is to focus on the people who are going to be facing really serious hardship so people at the bottom, and last year already 7 million households were having to go without the bare essentials, people are going without food and heating and hot showers, but we need to make sure that there is a flaw in the system that says, even when the country faces tough times, it is unacceptable that millions of people are going without the bare essentials, and we can protect them, we have the tools to do that. it is not at the same scale as we saw in the pandemic and we need to target it to make sure that we don't see more and more people forced into essentially destitution because it is morally wrong and also economically a very bad idea because people who are skipping meals and

living in cold houses are getting ill and education suffers and their health suffers and it increases pressure on the nhs, which then finds it harder to help people so they can get back to work, so we need to step out of that vicious cycle and put the right support in place. so cycle and put the right support in lace. ., ,., cycle and put the right support in lace. ., y., 4' , ., place. so targeted, your key word there. helen, _ place. so targeted, your key word there. helen, thanks _ place. so targeted, your key word there. helen, thanks for - place. so targeted, your key word there. helen, thanks forjoining . place. so targeted, your key word i there. helen, thanks forjoining us, from thejoseph rowntree foundation there. police services in england and wales have outlined broad changes to the way they respond to bereaved families after admitting failures in the way officers treated victims of the hillsborough disaster. 97 people died because of a crush at the fa cup semi—final in sheffield in 1989. here's what the college of policing's chief executive officer, chief constable andy marsh, had to say a little earlier. policing has apologised today in response to the report by bishop

jamesjones. policing has apologised and recognises that policing was the primary cause of the disaster, the hillsborough disaster, tragically, and policing is also apologising for the now nearly 34 years that the families have had to wait, to have their questions answered and to have justice and have some form of closure about what happened on that awful day. you closure about what happened on that awful da . ., _ closure about what happened on that awfulda. ., , closure about what happened on that awful da . ., ,;~, closure about what happened on that awfulda. ., i.” awful day. you say it is 34 years, but it is more _ awful day. you say it is 34 years, but it is more than _ awful day. you say it is 34 years, but it is more than five _ awful day. you say it is 34 years, but it is more than five years - awful day. you say it is 34 years, | but it is more than five years since the report, — but it is more than five years since the report, so— but it is more than five years since the report. so why— but it is more than five years since the report, so why has _ but it is more than five years since the report, so why has it— but it is more than five years since the report, so why has it taken- the report, so why has it taken policing — the report, so why has it taken policing so _ the report, so why has it taken policing so long _ the report, so why has it taken policing so long to _ the report, so why has it taken policing so long to respond? . the report, so why has it taken policing so long to respond? itj the report, so why has it taken. policing so long to respond? it is the report, so why has it taken policing so long to respond? it is a serious report _ policing so long to respond? it is a serious report and _ policing so long to respond? it is a serious report and policing - policing so long to respond? serious report and policing wants policing so long to respond?- serious report and policing wants to thank bishopjones for serious report and policing wants to thank bishop jones for the serious report and policing wants to thank bishopjones for the diligence and candour that he brought to his report. he raised serious issues and there are 25 recommendations for other agencies beyond policing, policing has left in the half, it is important that we are sincere —— has less than half. it is important that we talk meaningfully about what we

are going to do to make sure that we learn from what happened and do our very best to promise and commit that that will never happen again. finch; that will never happen again. andy marshall from _ that will never happen again. andy marshall from the _ that will never happen again. andy marshall from the college of policing, there, we will talk more about the hillsborough report after three o'clock. transport and public services in france are being badly disrupted by another day of strikes against government plans to push the age of retirement up from 62 to 64. demonstrations are being staged across the country with the biggest this afternoon in paris. let's get the latest from our paris correspondent, hugh schofield. what is going on where you are? i am in the 13th what is going on where you are? i —n in the 13th arrondissement of paris, on the left bank, and behind me as another monster demonstration and we

saw 112 days ago and this is another one. very big and noisy, pretty cheerful, no signs of trouble, although the police are in the streets around here in case there is trouble. the unions are crying victory from today because they are saying that the turnout here in demonstrations like this around the country is even bigger than it was 12 days ago. they say that it is a sign of massive rejection amongst the public of this plan of president macron to increase the age at which you can start drawing your state pension from 60 to up to 64 and the government says it is essential to balance the books but people here say that is rubbish and you also senseit say that is rubbish and you also sense it has become a movement which is a lightning rod for other complaints, notjust about pensions, but also for many people it is a chance to let off steam about the choices that society has taken over the years. people generally unhappy

with the state of france at the moment and using this occasion to vent their anger especially with the eight figure which president macron is for all of the people here —— the hate figure. it is for all of the people here -- the hate figure-— hate figure. it is more than 'ust about the fi hate figure. it is more than 'ust about the state i hate figure. it is more than 'ust about the state retirement h hate figure. it is more than just| about the state retirement age, hate figure. it is more than just i about the state retirement age, as you say, and with the unions saying this is successful, does this carry on and on, is there a way of breaking this? are we going to see more days like this? i breaking this? are we going to see more days like this?— breaking this? are we going to see more days like this? i think we are. there will be _ more days like this? i think we are. there will be a _ more days like this? i think we are. there will be a meeting _ more days like this? i think we are. there will be a meeting tonight - more days like this? i think we are. there will be a meeting tonight at l there will be a meeting tonight at the union of all the unions, they all together on this, which is rare, and they will say it has been a great success and there will be another day of action in a week or so, but what will be important to look at, is whether they start escalating. the government can withstand orderly even if very large

demonstrations like this because it is not really affecting economic life but it is allowing people to let off steam and is part of the democratic process but if the union say we are going to move up a level and start blockading power stations, oil depots, we will start putting the thumb on the jugular, then that is different territory, and the government wants to get this bill through parliament as quickly as possible. it begins the passage to parliament next week and it is on an accelerated timetable and it should get through in about 3—4 weeks and if it can do that and withstand this in the meantime it will have won, but there is always the chance that the union say we have got so much public support, we have got to step up public support, we have got to step up the rhythm. irate public support, we have got to step up the rhythm-— up the rhythm. we will watch that indeed. up the rhythm. we will watch that indeed- hugh _ up the rhythm. we will watch that indeed. hugh schofield, - up the rhythm. we will watch that indeed. hugh schofield, at - up the rhythm. we will watch that indeed. hugh schofield, at one i up the rhythm. we will watch that indeed. hugh schofield, at one ofj indeed. hugh schofield, at one of those big demonstrations in paris, thanks forjoining us. now, ships setting sail in search of buried treasure is standard stuff

for films and novels, but for marine archaeologists there comes a time when the ships themselves become the buried treasure. hooe lake in plymouth has around 40 buried wrecks which can be investigated at low tide. as alex green reports, the true identity of one of these hulks has now been discovered. now buried in what's referred to as a ship graveyard, the true identity of this 150—year—old vessel buried in hooe lake on the outskirts of plymouth has been discovered. this ship was thought to have been a dutch barge called the two brothers, but after an archaeological excavation and some sifting through the archives, it was identified as a west country schooner called thejohn sims. when we investigated her, we found that she wasn't built like one. she was built far more like a west country ship. accidentally finding her name in a letter was just a stroke of luck, but that allowed us to find a photograph of her. we then advertised the fact that

she's here on social media and on our website, and i expect what usually happens is that the families of people associated with the ship get in touch. there's a lot involved in identifying a ship which has broken down as much as this, including getting your hands dirty at low tide. so one of the things that we do when we're looking at the hulks and the wrecks and even what we do underwater is we have to kind of figure out what type of vessel it is if we don't know the name of it. thejohn sims is just one of the 36 hulks buried on the foreshore in hooe lake, and that's just the ones that are known about. and we started to look at hooe lake specifically because there's almost 40 wrecks that you can see within hooe lake, and one of the ones that we were looking at was originally called what we thought was the two brothers, which is where we're standing and you can see behind me. we thought she was a dutch barge, but there's a certain way that certain vessels are made so that we can look at that and kind of check off things as we go. and we couldn't check off

any of those things. records show that after an almost 80—year sailing career, thejohn sims was converted to a timber lighter in 1935 for use in timber yard at the end of hooe lake, where the wreck lays today. every time we look at something, we find something new. the hulks in hooe lake tell us lots about trading and what was happening in plymouth back in the 1800s. but also they provide examples of ships that kind of no longer exist. some of the ones we found in the lake, some of the ones we've identified, are the last surviving examples of this particular type. this newly identified ship lays alongside other ship hulks thought to date back to the 1870s and beyond. and collectively, along with the many shipwrecks underwater around plymouth, they tell a story of this naval city and its maritime heritage. alex green, bbc news. the princess of wales has launched a new campaign to raise awareness of the importance of the first five years of a child's life. the project has been described by palace sources as the princess's

"life's work" and draws attention to how babies and children develop in response to early experiences. here's our royal correspondent, daniela relph, and a warning her piece does contain some flash photography. kirkgate market in leeds, where the princess of wales has come to launch this new campaign. the focus is on greater awareness of the first five years of our lives and how they shape the adults we become. last night, the princess laid out her vision for the campaign and why it matters to her so much. it is essential to not only understand the unique importance of our earliest years but to know what we can all do to help raise future generations of happy, healthy adults. shaping us is a long term campaign, and we're starting by highlighting how we develop during early childhood and why these years matter so much. we can't wait to meet you.

the launch comes with a film, birth to five years old in 90 seconds, designed to show how a child develops and how communication and connection is vital. our children, their brains develop between pregnancy and the age of five, quicker and more crucial than at any other point in their life. and i think it's something that maybe i wasn't aware of until i fully dug deep into this. advisers to the princess of wales have stressed that this campaign isn't about politics or policy, but about raising public awareness. it comes at a challenging time for some young families where financial stresses dominate. but the princess of wales believes she can make a difference in an area that's been described as her life's work. daniela relph, bbc news, leeds.

it's an exciting day for eurovision fans as the competition heads to liverpool as part of the official hand—over from turin. we'll also find out which countries have secured their place in the semi—finals as part of a special programme on bbc two this evening. jayne mccubbin has been to liverpool to see how the city is gearing up for one of the biggest music events of the year. something big is on its way to liverpool, and liverpool is very excited. eurovision. i love it, just love it. eurovision! - exciting. it is exciting. such a pleasure to be able to hold

it in this city, i can't wait. tonight the keys of the competition will be handed overfrom turin to liverpool and then the live draw takes place, deciding which country goes into which semifinal. it will be hosted live on bbc two at 7pm by superfans aj 0dudu and rylan clark. this kicks off eurovision like you have never seen it before. 2023, it's the first, biggest event of the year, as far as i'm concerned. absolutely. and we are so excited. the thing about eurovision, why it is so special to me personally, it is that sort of two weeks of the year, that whole programme, where nothing else matters, it doesn't matter what is going on anywhere else, everybody is, for want of a better term, united by the music. the grand final is on may 13th and this man is in charge of the whole thing for the bbc. the pressure! don't worry, only 160 million people are watching, yeah. you know, let's face it, a time when a bit ofjoy, a bit of light, a bit of togetherness wouldn't go amiss. it is a gift, and no better place to do than in liverpool. liverpool's bars, pubs, and clubs are raring to go. i thought eurovision, you just comee for the night, and it is not. it is a two or three week event, it'sjust going to be insane.

the night it was announced i felt like the president or something, i got on the phone and i was like, "get me the fizz, get me the fizz, we need the fizz." he's bringing former eurovision winners to liverpool to host one of very many eurovision parties. is there any other place to be? than liverpool? absolutely not! no. # you're making your mind up...# eurovision now compared to how it was when we did it is fantastic, but back then it was just... very safe, very proper, very conservative, in their suits. now it is just one big party, the whole of it, it's the best thing ever. it's billed as the music event of the year, but of course... the winner, ukraine! ..liverpool is hosting on behalf of ukraine. for you, this is really important? it is very important because eurovision is in the uk,

but it will be ukrainian voices. eurovision is an event which will show that life has not stopped for ukrainians. you're saying this gives people hope? yes, they have this hope in the future. that they will win. help is what it means to these ukrainians in liverpool, an event which promises to unite us through music. jayne mccubbin, bbc news. now it's time for a look at the weather with stav danaos. generally across the south, after we lose the early morning cloud, it will be dry again with plenty of sunshine apart from the odd shower but most of the showers have been piling into scotland, some of them are heavy with thunder and a bit of wintriness over the high ground, as well. these are the temperatures we

are looking at as we head into the evening, 8—9 in the south and 5—6 in the north but the wind is starting to pick up through this evening, certainly into the middle part of the night with gusts up to 80 mph for the far north of scotland, towards 0rkney, may shetland. likely towards 0rkney, may shetland. likely to cause some disruption as we head into wednesday. showers and longer spells of rain affecting scotland and parts of northern ireland and wintriness on the hills but further south it will be a much quieter night, barthe south it will be a much quieter night, bar the odd shower, clear spells, temperatures from a 3—5 across the country.

three to 5 degrees across the country.

this is bbc news i'mjane hill, the headlines... the uk will be the only major economy to shrink in 2023, according to the international monetary fund, although it says there'll be better news next year. paperchase goes into administration. tesco takes over the brand, but announces over 2,000 supermarketjobs are at risk. five years after a report into the treatment of the families of the hillsborough disaster, the police apologise and promise "cultural change" as they say relatives of victims were failed. we are now into 2023. how long does it take to read a report, to come out with your findings

of what you think should happen? children exposed to online pornography — a new report says one in four see x—rated material before finishing primary school. the princess of wales says her new campaign on early years development will be her "life's work". and the eurovision song contest arrives in liverpool with "united in music" as this year's slogan. hello, good afternoon. the uk economy will perform worse than all other major advanced nations this year, including russia. that's according to the international monetary fund,

which suggests the economy will shrink by 0.6%. that's a sharp downgrade from an earlier prediction, although they do say the uk is now "on the right track". the chancellor, jeremy hunt, said the uk had outperformed many forecasts last year. here's our economics correspondent, andy verity. british workers don't need a washington financial institution to tell them that rocketing prices for energy and food are making them poorer and the economy weaker. that is true the world over. economists at the imf forecast our economy will be worse hit than others this year, the only one among 15 advanced economies to shrink. that is partly because the government is doing less than other countries to shield households from high wholesale gas prices, so we will pay higher energy bills. we have a very challenging environment in the united kingdom, an energy crisis that is very strong and in a country that has a high dependence on liquid natural gas and a high pass through of the wholesale price to the retail price so this

is adding to the cost of living crisis. as a response to this high inflation there is a tightening of monetary policy by the bank of england and in the uk this feeds quickly into mortgages. while falling prices for commodities from oil to gas and slowing inflation have improved the outlook for growth across the world, in the uk the outlook has been getting worse. in its previous forecast the imf expected the uk to grow by 0.3% in 2023, better than some other advanced economies. now it is expecting it to shrink by 0.6%, considerably worse. the imf expects the uk economy to do worse than other advanced economies not because of global factors, but domestic policy. the bank of england is raising interest rates and the government said it wants to restrain spending at the same time as it is raising more in tax from households, not less. all of that takes money out of the economy so households and firms have less money to spend

on everything else and that is what slows the economy down. according to data from the marketing consultants cantor index, consumers are also facing inflation in grocery prices of over 16%. everything, milk, butter, cheese, bacon, everything pretty much and it's notjust 5p or 10p, you are talking 25p, 30 p. you are talking 25p, 30p. the account balance is definitely a bit lower after buying a whole load of groceries and stuff but you just get on with it. it's something you have to get on with, unfortunately. everything seems to be going up so it isjust another— part of it, i think. this year is going to be probably a year of stagnant growth. that is really bad after a long period of very poor growth growth. period of very poor growth. we should be recovering quickly after covid. we are not. most households are going to be worst off over the period of this year, but it is going to look confusing because i think on thursday the bank of england is going to say things are better than they thought they were in

the autumn, still not good at all, but better than they thought they were in the autumn. the government pointed to imf comments that the government's policy was "on the right track", with the uk forecast to grow faster thanjapan or germany in the coming years. some economists on the bank of england's monetary policy committee already think that raising interest rates again could hit the economic breaks too hard when we may already be in recession. tomorrow the committee will meet to decide its next move. a little earlier i spoke to our economics correspondent andy verity. i asked him whether the uk was suffering from global forces or domestic policies. last year we did relatively well, 4.1% growth, better than other countries, but this year the imf says we will do worse. the reason is we are more susceptible to high wholesale gas prices than other economies because we are not offering as big a cushion to households and firms as say the french are. this means when you get high wholesale gas prices as we have had for the last few months,

they feed through into our bills. that means we have less money to spend on everything else. we also have higher inflation than other economies. in the uk it was 10.5% at the last count and in the eurozone it is 9%, less than 10%. in the us it is less than 7%. that is worse and therefore they are anticipating that the bank of england will have to raise interest rates faster in order to try to head off inflation. the mechanism for that is to raise interest rates and those people with variable rate mortgages have to pay more and they have got less money to spend on everything else. similarly, the government with its fiscal policy, its tax and spend policy, is taking money out of the economy. the last public finance numbers show we are paying more in income tax than we were last year for various technical reasons to do with the fact they are freezing on the threshold. more of us are paying higher rates

of tax and more tax money is going into the treasury and we have got less to spend and therefore the economy slows down. it is really policy reasons, what the government and the bank of england are doing in order to try and slow inflation down, which makes the uk economic prospects worse. 0ur economics correspondent andy verity. we can now speak to caroline lucas, green party mp for brighton pavilion. good afternoon to you. your thoughts on the imf prediction. weill. good afternoon to you. your thoughts on the imf prediction.— on the imf prediction. well, i think it is a pretty _ on the imf prediction. well, i think it is a pretty damning _ on the imf prediction. well, i think it is a pretty damning indictment i on the imf prediction. well, i think it is a pretty damning indictment of 13 years of conservative government. we have heard a lot of the different factors that are playing into this. some are global, but mostly at national, given that issues like the invasion of ukraine, the russian invasion of ukraine, the russian invasion in ukraine, when it comes to the pandemic others have suffered that as well, so i do think we need to look at some of the national issues that are going on. the one that i would add, which i think is the elephant in the room, is brexit.

clearly it is not only as a result of brexit that we are seeing this damning report from the imf, but also clearly we know that brexit has led to labour shortages in the region of over 330,000 jobs. we know that trade is down around 15%, investment is probably around 25% less than it would have been if it had kept on p pandemic levels. there is real concern here about the self—harm that brexit has caused and from my side a real frustration that perhaps doesn't feature in this analysis. perhaps doesn't feature in this anal sis. ., perhaps doesn't feature in this anal sis. . ., , , analysis. there are absolutely workforce _ analysis. there are absolutely workforce shortages, - analysis. there are absolutely workforce shortages, it - analysis. there are absolutely workforce shortages, it is - analysis. there are absolutely workforce shortages, it is onej analysis. there are absolutely i workforce shortages, it is one of theissues workforce shortages, it is one of the issues raised. but you will know there was a house of lords report recently which looked at why this country has a workforce shortage and it talked about brexit but it didn't feel that brexit was the main reason. t feel that brexit was the main reason. ~' �* , feel that brexit was the main reason. ~ �* , ., reason. i think brexit is an exacerbating _ reason. i think brexit is an exacerbating reason - reason. i think brexit is an exacerbating reason on . reason. i think brexit is an | exacerbating reason on just reason. i think brexit is an - exacerbating reason on just about any of the different challenges we are talking about. another what

would be around the amount of red tape small businesses in particular are now having. 0ne tape small businesses in particular are now having. one of the huge irony is because we were sold to the brexit package on the argument that it was going to free up businesses. but we know time and again that small businesses, certainly in my constituency, are saying it is preventing them from trading and preventing them from trading and preventing them from moving forward. i think the uncertainty that has been caused as having a chilling effect on investment. while i am not saying brexit is the only reason, i am saying it has certainly exacerbated the different forces we are talking about here. if we had a government that would face up to that, and an official opposition that, and an official opposition that would face up to that, we might be able to start a conversation about what kind of relationship with the eu we would like to see going forward. ., , the eu we would like to see going forward. ., _ , , forward. the government says this country has _ forward. the government says this country has beaten _ forward. the government says this country has beaten economic- country has beaten economic forecasts over the last few years and can do so again, that the imf is overstating the situation. weill. overstating the situation. well, tell that to _

overstating the situation. well, tell that to the _ overstating the situation. well, tell that to the businesses - overstating the situation. well, tell that to the businesses i - overstating the situation. well, i tell that to the businesses i speak to and the businesses up and down the country who are tearing their hair out because they cannot get the workforce because the paperwork is overwhelming, because the processes are slow slow. look at public services where we know again that one of the reasons, not the only reason, but one of the reasons we have so many workforce shortages in social care, the nhs, is again because people from europe have felt unwelcome in the uk and have gone back to the european union. i am simply saying we should not keep ignoring this elephant in the room, we need to acknowledge it and start a discussion about what we are going to do about it. a discussion about what we are going to do about it— to do about it. there is a budget in mid-march, _ to do about it. there is a budget in mid-march, not _ to do about it. there is a budget in mid-march, not that _ to do about it. there is a budget in mid-march, not that far _ to do about it. there is a budget in mid-march, not that far away. i to do about it. there is a budget in l mid-march, not that far away. what mid—march, not that far away. what measures could the chancellor introduced that would be helpful? what would you advocate for? i wanted to pick up the point you mentioned earlier around energy costs in the uk, which are so much higher than in many other countries, and what i and many others have been begging the chancellor to do for many years is to roll out the street

by street, home insulation programme that gets people's homes insulated so that our bills would not be so high in the first place. that is the cheapest, most effective, fastest way to get people's fuel bills down. time and again the government has refused to put that in place. as well as giving people more help where necessary in terms of those energy bills, what i would love to see is for the government to close the so—called investment allowance, which is basically a huge subsidy to the fossilfuel which is basically a huge subsidy to the fossil fuel companies to get yet more oil and gas out of the north sea which is a pretty perverse response to a crisis caused by high gas prices, and instead put that money into protecting people through insulating their homes and making sure that their fuel bills can come down as well as climate emissions and create jobs down as well as climate emissions and createjobs in the process down as well as climate emissions and create jobs in the process as well. and create “obs in the process as well. ., ., , and create “obs in the process as well. ., ., ., ~ and create “obs in the process as well. . ., . ~ and create “obs in the process as well. . ., , . ~ i., ., well. caroline lucas, thank you for “oininu well. caroline lucas, thank you for joining us- — well. caroline lucas, thank you for joining us- the _ well. caroline lucas, thank you for joining us. the green _ well. caroline lucas, thank you for joining us. the green party- well. caroline lucas, thank you for joining us. the green party mp i well. caroline lucas, thank you for joining us. the green party mp forj joining us. the green party mp for brighton pavilion. tesco has bought the stationary brand paperchase hours after it fell

into administration. but tesco won't be taking on any of paperchase's106 stores or its 800 staff. the loss—making firm has been hit by falling sales and rising costs. its stores are still trading normally, for now, but customers are being advised to use gift cards as soon as possible. our business correspondent, emma simpson, told me more about the move by the supermarket chain. paper chase is clearly a very good brand. there was quite a lot of interest in it, but tesco wanted the brand, and as you said it did not what the stores and staff. for tesco it was saying it is a much loved brand and they were very proud to have the brand in its stores, and clearly this would work in its larger stores. tesco is seeing perhaps fewer electricals and technology sales in its stores and it is moving into sort of having

more clothing and home brands and of course they will see this as complementary and it could work very well, we will have to wait and see what its plans are. as to why paper chase went under, as we say, it went into administration this morning. that was much expected. this is a business that has had a pretty challenging few years. four years ago it is a form of insolvency proceedings to cut costs, it saved money and with lower rents it cuts stores and jobs. then you may remember back injanuary 2021 in the teeth of the pandemic it went into administration then and was rescued. it saw a total collapse in its sales over its crucial christmas trading. it was rescued, another private owner comes in and then it was bought again last august. it has fallen over less than six months later. i think that is a combination of falling sales and rising costs and a lot of it stores are in train

stations and of course there have been fewer commuters, reduced footfall, and that has exacerbated things. so these latest owners hoisted the for sale signs and no viable owners came through and here we are today. it went under. but tesco has bought the brand, but it does leave the future of the stores, about 106 of them, and the workers under real threat of course. yes. under real threat of course. yes, absolutely. _ under real threat of course. yes, absolutely, and _ under real threat of course. yes, absolutely, and it _ under real threat of course. yes, absolutely, and it is _ under real threat of course. yes, absolutely, and it is a _ under real threat of course. yes, absolutely, and it is a lot - under real threat of course. yes, absolutely, and it is a lot of - absolutely, and it is a lot of people. and tesco announcing other changes today as well more broadly. yes, so tesco today announced some big changes in the way that it runs its stores. so, 1750 team manager, lead manager role going across its larger stores. what it is doing, it says, is it is creating 1800 new shift leaders and this is at a lower

tier and a lower pay, but they say these people will have the responsibility of day—to—day operations in the stores, leaving the hire managers to get on with more managerial tasks involving colleagues. what they are saying is these people who were doing team manager roles, yes, you can apply for these new, lower roles, we will keep you at the same pay, your pay will be protected for two years, or you can take redundancy. at face value the 1750 roles are at risk. they are also closing all the remaining counters and top delicatessens they have. they have already closed most of them and they will close the remaining ones. that will close the remaining ones. that will not involve job losses because those roles will go elsewhere in stores. the otherjobs, 350 jobs at risk in various parts of the business, so pharmacies are closing. they are reducing the hours at some post offices, a small number ofjobs are going at head office, and they are going at head office, and they are closing a maintenance centre in milton keynes which basically takes

calls and organises the upkeep of stores. in the round you have got more than 2000 roles at risk at brick and's biggest retailer is it really tries to reshape its business. of course all the big supermarkets over the last few years have been making big changes. they have been making big changes. they have got to cut costs and save money and try and fend off those pesky discounters which are growing sales and stealing shoppers. fill" discounters which are growing sales and stealing shoppers. our business correspondent _ and stealing shoppers. our business correspondent emma _ and stealing shoppers. our business correspondent emma simpson. - thousands of ambulance workers in england are to go on strike again next week in a long—running dispute over pay and staffing. our health editor, hugh pym has the latest. no sign of resolution, no sign of any pay talks taking place, and now we have had one of the health unions, unison, setting a new strike date of next friday the 10th of february, for ambulance staff in some parts of england, adding to walk—outs, strikes elsewhere in the nhs earlier in the week. in fact

they will take place every day apart from wednesday. and of course the big one, which nhs leaders are really quite worried about, will be walk—outs by ambulance staff and nurses on the same day for the first time, that will be on monday in england and wales. the government position covering england is that there is no money for paying more than the existing pay award for this financial year, they think that adding to what is already there would be unaffordable and not fair. but they have urged unions to engage with the pay review body process for the next financial year beginning in april. some unions, though, said they will not take part in this, and it emerged today that the government has not submitted its own evidence to the pay review body process. the chair of that body giving evidence at a select committee in the commons this morning said there was a deadline ofjanuary the this morning said there was a deadline of january the 11 this morning said there was a deadline ofjanuary the 11 and ministers had missed that and she still had not had the evidence, but

was expected to come up with a recommendation in april. the chair of the commons select committee, steve brian, a conservative mp, said he thought this was astonishing and he thought this was astonishing and he was going to ask ministers what was going on. so quite a lot of confusion over the whole process it has to be said no obvious way at this stage of a way out of this pay dispute the nhs. tblur this stage of a way out of this pay dispute the nhs.— this stage of a way out of this pay dispute the nhs. our health editor huh ' m dispute the nhs. our health editor hugh pym with _ dispute the nhs. our health editor hugh pym with the _ dispute the nhs. our health editor hugh pym with the latest. - a man who drove a jcb digger into the front of a house in caerphilly has been given a 16—month suspended prison sentence. 56—year—old mark holmes from penybryn had been drinking when he caused £28,000 worth of damage to a house in blackwood and "minor injuries" to the owner. 0ur wales correspondent, tomos morgan, has the latest. explain more about this, thomas. this happened three days before christmas and the court heard that mark holmes had been pending at this rate, there have been disagreements

in the family and he had been drinking on the 22nd and that morning he had taken his son'sjcb digger down to the home of his brother's ex partner, paul brown's house. you can see in this footage that he then begins ramming the house, he rams the two cars in the driveway, he breaks down a wall and he actually flips one of the cars in this fit of rage as paula brown was trying to get him to stop. the digger actually graces her arm and she sustained minor injuries. after that at the end of this video which was filmed by people on the street, he then drives down to the local police station, admits to what he has done, admits he had been drinking quite a bit and admits he had a lot on his mind and there had been family disagreements, but in the court to date the judge said that was not an excuse for what he has done and he sentenced him to 16 months suspended for two years and disqualified from driving for three years, as well as given a

restraining order. transport and public services in france are being badly disrupted by another day of strikes against government plans to push the age of retirement up from 62 to 64. demonstrations are being staged across the country with the biggest this afternoon in paris. earlier i spoke to our paris correspondent, hugh schofield who is at one of the demonstrations in the french capital. iam nearthe i am near the blast italy in the 13th arrondissement of paris on the left bank and behind me is another of these monster demonstrations. we saw 112 days ago and this is another one, very big, very noisy, pretty cheerful, no signs of trouble, though the police are in the streets around here in case there is trouble. already the unions are crying victory from today because

they are saying that the turnout here and in demonstrations like this across the country is even bigger thanit across the country is even bigger than it was 12 days ago. they are saying it is a sign of what we know already, that there is massive rejection in the public of this plan of president macron's to increase the age at which you can start drawing your french pension from 62 to 64. the government is saying it is essential to balance the books, but people out here are saying it is rubbish. 0ne senses also it has become a movement, a lightning rod for all sorts of other complaints, it is notjust about pensions. it is also for many people here a chance to let off steam about the choices society has taken over the years, people generally unhappy with the state of france at the moment and using this occasion to come out and vent their anger, using this occasion to come out and vent theiranger, particularly using this occasion to come out and vent their anger, particularly with the hate figure which president macron is for all of the people here. yes, and you have exactly answered my next question, because it is more

than just about the state retirement age. and with the unions are saying this is successful to you, doesn't this is successful to you, doesn't this just carry on and on? is there a way of breaking this? are we going to see more and more days like this? i think we are. there will be a meeting tonight at the union of all the unions, they are altogether in this, which is rare, and they will say it has all been a great success and there will be another day of action in a week or so. what is going to be imported to watch out for is whether they start escalating. i think the government can withstand orderly, even a very large, demonstrations like this because it is not really affecting economic life, it is allowing people to let off steam, it is all part of the democratic process. if the unions say we are moving up a level, we are going to block a power stations, oil depots and so on, we are going to put the thumb on the

jugular, then we enter a whole different territory. the government wants to get this bill through parliament as quickly as possible. it starts its passage through parliament next week and is on an accelerated timetable. it should get through in three or four weeks. accelerated timetable. it should get through in three orfour weeks. if he can do that and can withstand this in the meantime, it will have one. but there is always the chance that the unions will say we have got so much public behind us, we have to step up our rhythm. hugh so much public behind us, we have to step up our rhythm-— step up our rhythm. hugh schofield in paris on the _ step up our rhythm. hugh schofield in paris on the strikes _ step up our rhythm. hugh schofield in paris on the strikes continuing i in paris on the strikes continuing in paris on the strikes continuing in france. a quarter of children have seen pornography by the time they leave primary school, according to a report for the children's commissioner for england. dame rachel de souza said the finding was "deeply concerning" and warned that teenagers were often viewing porn involving violence towards women. i'm joined now by fiona vera gray, deputy director of the child and women

abuse unit at london met. good afternoon to you. it is hard to know where to start with this. it is so dispiriting and so distressing to hear this, what is the starting point from this for you? what should we learn from this? it is point from this for you? what should we learn from this?— we learn from this? it is really hard. i we learn from this? it is really hard- i am _ we learn from this? it is really hard. i am not— we learn from this? it is really hard. i am not at _ we learn from this? it is really hard. i am not at all— we learn from this? it is really hard. i am not at all surprised | we learn from this? it is really i hard. i am not at all surprised by what has come out. we have known this for a long time. i did research with colleagues in 2012 with young people and part of that was talking about pornography and i remember really clearly a young boy said to us there, it is just like watching the simpsons. the idea that it is now mainstream, quite easy and accessible in the form of entertainment that people are accessing is very different than it was in my generation. we knew that ten years ago and we are coming back to it now. i am starting to feel impatient because in the meantime we are losing generations because nobody is acting to do something to

hold these pawn companies to account for the fact that they are not really doing anything of substance to stop young people from accessing material that in this country is illegal, it is unlawful for them to access it under 18 if they are accessing it online. for online it seems to be a free for a nobody is doing anything about it. is seems to be a free for a nobody is doing anything about it.— doing anything about it. is the fundamental _ doing anything about it. is the fundamental problem, - doing anything about it. is the fundamental problem, the i doing anything about it. is the| fundamental problem, the real concern, the nature of it? the fact that some very young children are left with the impression that violence against women is expected, is almost normal, that is part of it? , ,., ., ., is almost normal, that is part of it? , ., ., , ., . it? yes, so we have had research come out — it? yes, so we have had research come out with — it? yes, so we have had research come out with colleagues - it? yes, so we have had research come out with colleagues at - it? yes, so we have had research i come out with colleagues at durham university in 2021 when we looked into the content of mainstream pornography. what we found on the mainstream free pawn sites which the kids will access when they type in sex or free pawn, kids will access when they type in sex orfree pawn, one in eight of the titles that were shown by the sites themselves on the front page without any kind of user activity

depicted forms of sexual violence. no longer is it something you have to search for or it is in some hidden recess of the internet, this is part of what pornography is today. we are doing nothing to stop young people and i am sorry, also adults, we need to have a conversation ourselves about what it means as a society if we are routinely showing sexual violence as being erotic, desirable. sex is something that is being done to women. we need to start having the conversations that we are having now, we need to start having them, it has gone on for too long. sex is an uncomfortable topic. pornography, we don't want to talk to kids about it, we don't want to talk to each other about it. i have done research with women, talking about women's experience of pornography and women are not talking about our use of it. no one is talking about it and we need to because what you find when you do start talking about it is a lot of people actually feel quite

conflicted. they are feeling uncomfortable with some of the things they have seen and that they have been aroused by. they are feeling uncomfortable with the sexualisation of sexual violence. but as adults if we are not having a conversation, we are letting kids... there is so much here. parents need to explain to children that this is not how you treat women, this is not right. easy to say in a sentence, but it outlines that is exceptionally difficult to do, but we are reaping the bad rewards if we don't. also your thoughts on the 0nline safety bill. fiifi don't. also your thoughts on the online safety bill.— don't. also your thoughts on the online safety bill. ok, the online safety bill. _ online safety bill. ok, the online safety bill, once-in-a-lifetime i safety bill, once—in—a—lifetime opportunity to do something. we need to do something but we need to get it right, we need to make sure that what we are doing with that will have the changes we wanted to have and that is not happening at the moment. the provisions have been taken out of the bill, but people can look them up. provisions have been taken at that would capture the

vast majority or pornographic material that is harmful but is not criminal or unlawful. at the moment it is losing and it has no teeth and there is no enforcement behind it. in terms of parents and talking to their kids, it is really hard conversation to have and there are different ways to have it, to come from a place where your kids can talk to you about what they have seen and what they have done without feeling they are going to get into trouble, or you are going tojump to remove the internet access or something like that. we need to create a space where kids feel they will not be judged and they can come to adults to talk about what they are seeing, because some of what they are seeing is very traumatic and currently there is nowhere for them to go to talk about that. really good to have your expertise. thank you so much, from london metropolitan university. an inquest has heard that a young woman who was mauled while out walking dogs at a beauty spot in surrey earlier this month died of "multiple" bites to her neck. natasha johnston, who was 28, suffered shock and haemorrhage

when she was attacked in caterham. duncan kennedy is following the inquest in surrey. this was a very short hearing in the corner�*s or behind me in front of the surrey coroner, reallyjust a hearing to formally identify natasha johnston. the coroner said she was 28 years old and she was a dog walker. we know that just over two weeks old and she was a dog walker. we know thatjust over two weeks ago she was walking eight dogs of different breeds on those beautiful hills just outside caterham and something happened. we don't know what happened yet, what the details were, but for some reason one or more of those dogs turned on her and attacked her and natasha later died. the coroner today said she had been bitten multiple times by those dogs and that the cause of death was shock and loss of blood. the coroner passed on his sincere condolences to natasha's family and said to the full inquest will take place at the

end ofjune. we have already had a statement from surrey police. they say their investigation has been completed, there have been no crimes committed so they will not be any prosecutions in this case. we also understand that some or all of those eight dogs involved are still being held for some undisclosed tests, some undisclosed further investigations. it is not clear what is going on with that, but we understand that process is continuing. and, of course, we had a very poignant statement from natasha's family in which they said they were going through a very difficult time and they wished to be left in peace to carry on their grieving. left in peace to carry on their aurievin. , .. left in peace to carry on their aurievin. , , . ., grieving. duncan kennedy. we are livin: that grieving. duncan kennedy. we are living that and _ grieving. duncan kennedy. we are living that and going _ grieving. duncan kennedy. we are living that and going straight - grieving. duncan kennedy. we are living that and going straight to i living that and going straight to the middle east, the us secretary, anthony blinken, hasjust the middle east, the us secretary, anthony blinken, has just started addressing reporters there following on from all the violence of recent days, let's listen in. the loss of many innocent people on

both sides, and ironside discussed it with everyone here, all sides must take steps to reduce further escalation in violence and restore calm —— and all sides are disgusted with. fear can then start to recede. across my meetings with israel's government and palestinian authorities, our partners in cairo, i heard a deep concern about the current trajectory. but i also had constructive ideas and practical steps that each side can take to lower the temperature and foster greater cooperation and bolster security. i have asked senior members of my team to stay on in the region and continue discussions on how steps may be advanced. these were the steps that the parties themselves must lean on and we have no illusions that heighten tensions can be diffused overnight but we are prepared to support efforts here and

with partners in the region if the parties have the will to do so. the us is always ready and willing to be a partner in the cause of peace and security. 0n a partner in the cause of peace and security. on my return home and in the coming days, we will engage with partners in the broader region who share concerns about the escalating cycle of violence and like us want to support the party is in finding a way forward. restoring calm is the immediate task but over the longer term we have got to do more than just lower tensions. the us is committed to working with our enduring goal of making sure that palestinians and israelis enjoy equal measures of freedom and security and opportunity, justice and dignity. president biden's firm conviction is that the only way to achieve that goal is through preserving and realising the vision of two states for two peoples. the us will continue to oppose anything

that puts that goal from rich, including settlement expansion, legalisation of illegal outposts, the move to annexation of the west bank, disruption to the status quo on the israeli holy site, demolitions and evictions, and incitement to violence. we will also support efforts to move closer to peace, expand the horizon of hope, advance equal rights and opportunities for palestinians and israelis. that includes building on the efforts we have made in the last two years to improve the lives of the palestinian people in concrete ways, we bolster our assistance to the un relief and works agency for palestine refugees, including approximate $50 million in new funding that i announce today. enabling the provision of essential services like food, vaccines, education and vital aid for refugees, and that brings us total funding for palestinians in the last

two years to nearly $940 million. we are supporting quality health care to the jerusalem are supporting quality health care to thejerusalem hospital network and making real progress towards implementing an agreement to provide a 4g network in the palestinian territory. we are working to broaden the circle of peace between israel and its neighbours as we demonstrated earlier this month when us officialsjoined demonstrated earlier this month when us officials joined representatives from israel, bahrain, egypt, morocco, and the uae, for the first meeting of the working forum group, and this was the largest assemblage of officials from countries since madrid going back many decades. 0n crucial issues like food and water security, clean energy, regional security, clean energy, regional security, our efforts are creating collaboration that will improve the lives of people across the region and erode long—standing biases and distrust. even as we are making strides we continue to work together

to tackle shared threats, and this morning we discussed ways to deepen our cooperation and confront and counter iranians regime's destabilising actions in the region and beyond. i met with the opposition leader who shares the same commitment to counter iran. the deepening ties with moscow from iran and the exchange of weaponry is amongst the many reasons that we raised with israel the importance of providing support for all of ukraine's needs, humanitarian, economic and security, as a defence against the russian war of aggression. we discussed a number ways to advance our shared security interests just as i ways to advance our shared security interestsjust as i did ways to advance our shared security interests just as i did yesterday in a meeting with the prime minister and the foreign minister and across these discussions i made clear that america's commitment to the israeli security is unwavering, just as it has been for nearly 75 years, and

finally the us will continue to deepen our bonds with partners outside of government, and today i have the opportunity to spend time with palestinian and palestinian american civil society leaders, entrepreneurs, business leaders, who share the work they are doing to improve the lives of their communities and i started by adhering from a group of young israeli leaders, jews and arabs who are doing critical work for the advancing ofjunta rights and people with disabilities and advancing ties between communities —— the advancing of lgbtq rights. the civil society plays an indispensable role in both of our societies, in strengthening the rights of people and principals at the heart of a free society and helping people to tackle some of their most pressing challenges. it is a reminder of how citizens are willing to continue to engage and to hold their leaders accountable and to keep working to create the world that they and their communities

want. they can count on the us as a partner in all of those endeavours. with that i'm to take some questions. with that i'm to take some questions-— with that i'm to take some cuestions. ~ . . ,, questions. we have tracy wilkinson from the lit — questions. we have tracy wilkinson from the la times. _ questions. we have tracy wilkinson from the la times. thank - questions. we have tracy wilkinson from the la times. thank you. - from the la times. thank you. studio: we — from the la times. thank you. studio: we will _ from the la times. thank you. studio: we will leave - from the la times. thank you. studio: we will leave that i from the la times. thank you. | studio: we will leave that now, from the la times. thank you. - studio: we will leave that now, we have a busy afternoon, but we will keep a eye on those questions and see what else emerges but that is antony blinken, the us secretary of state, saying he is leaving some of his staff to continue conversations after he earlier called on the israelis and palestinians to take steps to bring peace after some grim days of violence, as you will no doubt be aware. busy afternoon back here. police chiefs have promised a "cultural change" as they apologised to families of hillsborough victims, almost 34 years on from the disaster. the pledge comes with the publication of a national police response to a report by the former

bishop of liverpool into the experiences of the hillsborough families. 97 people died as a a result of the crush on the terraces at the sheffield wednesday ground in 1989. 0ur north of england correspondent judith moritz has this report. the horror of hillsborough continues to be felt almost 34 years after the crush on the terraces that killed 97 liverpool supporters. police failures were the main cause of the disaster, but the fans were wrongly blamed and, for years, theirfamilies fought forjustice. # walk on, walk on with hope...# in 2016, they rejoiced when fresh inquests returned verdicts of unlawful killing. the former bishop of liverpool, jamesjones, was then commissioned to write a report about the experience

of the hillsborough families to ensure their pain and suffering wouldn't be repeated. the government is yet to respond. i think we have to put ourselves in the shoes of the families. this year, it will be 34 years since the tragedy. and for them to wait for so long for a response to these 25 points of learning is intolerable and adds to their pain and, i think, in some instances, even affects their own grieving. let's hope that's only the beginning of what's going to be done. margaret aspinall, whose sonjames was killed, is one of those who has campaigned on behalf of the hillsborough families. she is also critical of the time it's taken to hear from government. i rememberwriting — idon't know who it was to, to somebody in government — to say i hope this report does not get put on a shelf gathering dust for years,

like other things in the past have done. we are now into 2023. how long does it take to read a report, to come out with your findings of what you think should happen? when bishopjames published this report in 2017, he included 25 recommendations, just under half of which were directed at the police. today's response by the police is the first since then by a major public authority and it includes the first—ever apology for hillsborough on behalf of all the police forces in england and wales. there are calls for there to be a hillsborough law which would help victims of future mass tragedies. the government says it will publish its response to the bishop's report in due course. judith moritz, bbc news. well, thatjoint response today comes from the national police chiefs council and the college of policing. chief constable andy marsh is chief executive officer

of the college of policing. policing has apologised today in response to the report by bishop james jones. policing has apologised and recognised that policing was the primary cause of the disaster, the hillsborough disaster, tragically, and policing is also apologising for the now nearly 34 years that the families have had to wait, to have their questions answered and to have justice and have some form of closure about what happened on that awful day. you say it is 34 years, | but it is more than five years since the report, - so why has it taken policing so long to respond? it is a serious report and policing wants to thank bishopjones for the diligence and candour that he brought to his report. he raised serious issues.

there are 25 recommendations for other agencies beyond policing, policing has less than half. it is important that we are sincere. it is important in making our response that we talk meaningfully about what we are going to do to make sure that we learn from what happened and do our very best to promise and commit that that will never happen again. andy marsh from the college of policing, there. chief constable, andy marsh. more now on our other top story this afternoon — the prediction by the international monetary fund that the uk economy will shrink by 0.6% this year. that's worse than any other major advanced nation.

i'm joined now by helen thomas, who was an adviser to george osborne when he was shadow chancellor in 2008. she now runs a financial consultancy firm, blonde money. thanks forjoining us. fairly grim reading, isn't it?— reading, isn't it? actually, no, i would not _ reading, isn't it? actually, no, i would not put — reading, isn't it? actually, no, i would not put it _ reading, isn't it? actually, no, i would not put it that _ reading, isn't it? actually, no, i would not put it that way - reading, isn't it? actually, no, i. would not put it that way because what we need to look at with the number is, it is over a number of years and we are focused on 2023 but when you look at what they have done with this, yes, they have revised downwards this year by 0.3 percentage points but they have revised upwards next year by the same amount so they are effectively just shunting the growth forward. and then if we look at last year, the uk grew much faster than the other g7 economies, so we are starting from a higher point even if it is coming back a bit, so i know it is coming back a bit, so i know it is coming back a bit, so i know it is a pain with these numbers but the true story he is maybe not as

grim as the headlines would suggest. —— the true story here. but grim as the headlines would suggest. -- the true story here.— -- the true story here. but the uk is the only — -- the true story here. but the uk is the only major— -- the true story here. but the uk is the only major economy - -- the true story here. but the uk is the only major economy that i -- the true story here. but the uk is the only major economy that is| is the only major economy that is smaller now than before the pandemic started? , ., ., , ., started? yes, now that is an extremely — started? yes, now that is an extremely good _ started? yes, now that is an extremely good point - started? yes, now that is an extremely good point and i started? yes, now that is an i extremely good point and there started? yes, now that is an - extremely good point and there are a number of factors behind that. there has been the energy policy which has been a history of where we have not removed some of our reliance on gas, something the imf have pointed out in their reasons for revising their forecasts about so we have got our dependence on gas and then we have got a quirky thing going on with the labourforce since the got a quirky thing going on with the labour force since the pandemic, the bank of england have looked at this, as well, those over 50 are not returning to work as may have been expected and there is a big question about why and we don't yet know why thatis, about why and we don't yet know why that is, but there is a missing group of people who are just not working for various reasons, may be because they can't or they don't

want to, a lot of reasons why, but that seems to be holding back the scale and size of our economy overall. ., ~ ., . , , scale and size of our economy overall. ., ~ ., . ,, , overall. the workforce issue is so interesting _ overall. the workforce issue is so interesting because _ overall. the workforce issue is so interesting because over - overall. the workforce issue is so interesting because over months| overall. the workforce issue is so i interesting because over months and months i feel we have been talking about this, so many sectors talking about this, so many sectors talking about not being able to get staff, especially hospitality, the service sector, which is so important to the country, so what is your estimation as to the key factors driving this? some people say this is about brexit, and to what extent is it and what is the problem here?- brexit, and to what extent is it and what is the problem here? there is a miaration what is the problem here? there is a migration element _ what is the problem here? there is a migration element to _ what is the problem here? there is a migration element to this _ what is the problem here? there is a migration element to this because i migration element to this because people over 50 who are here do not want to do the work, can we get them from somewhere else? that has got to be quite specific about who do you want and what skills do you need and do they want to come and live here, of course, the other element, but the thing about brexit, i look at it this way, which is, all of the talk

about a no—deal brexit, effectively the world had no—deal brexit when the world had no—deal brexit when the pandemic began because everything shut down, we have those issues, no food on the shelves, planes not flying, everything was so disrupted, and i don't mean to be glib, that was very significant, but it means that it is quite hard economically to pick out what is the uk brexit element to all of this. what we really should take away is the economy now looks completely different from pre—pandemic and the question for the government is, what do they want, what do they want the economy to look like going forward, what policy can they change to get the people they want here? helen thomas, thanks _ the people they want here? helen thomas, thanks for _ the people they want here? helen thomas, thanks forjoining - the people they want here? helen thomas, thanks forjoining us. i the people they want here? helen thomas, thanks forjoining us. helen was an adviser to george osborne. we can now turn to one of the other

stories we have not touched on so far this afternoon. the uk police provide training to forces around the world, including to egypt. now a bbc news investigation has revealed how the egyptian police are using dating and social apps to find and arrest lgbtq people in egypt. it also revealed how criminal gangs in egypt are finding, abusing and extorting people from the lgbtq community they also meet online. let's get more now from ahmed who made that report. thanks forjoining us. lots of people will not know what the report is that you have been working on, so explain what you found? the is that you have been working on, so explain what you found?— explain what you found? the most im ortant explain what you found? the most important thing — explain what you found? the most important thing is _ explain what you found? the most important thing is that _ explain what you found? the most important thing is that in - explain what you found? the most important thing is that in egypt i important thing is that in egypt whether you are egyptian or a foreigner, anyone is possibly able to be arrested simply for being on a

dating app, social media, whether you are looking for love or friendship, or looking for a date. we spent a lot of time going through an extraordinary amount of exclusive police transcripts and we came to realise that people are in fact being targeted for their sexuality alone. it is worth mentioning for your audience that there was one foreigner in the documentary who we are calling a mat, and he essentially was on a popular dating app essentially was on a popular dating app called grind and he was pressured into meeting by police who are posing as undercover potential dates and he was not only arrested but also arrested and charged with debauchery which is originally a sex work for. he was eventually deported —— sex work law. these are not isolated incidents and it is not just on dating apps because people

are being plucked off the street, as well, and there's a lot of similarities between the tactics with which we have seen with gangs but also the police, targeting and arresting and abuse members of the lgbtq community. thea;t arresting and abuse members of the lgbtq community.— arresting and abuse members of the lgbtq community. they will be people who watch those _ lgbtq community. they will be people who watch those who _ lgbtq community. they will be people who watch those who go _ lgbtq community. they will be people who watch those who go on _ lgbtq community. they will be people who watch those who go on holiday i lgbtq community. they will be people who watch those who go on holiday to l who watch those who go on holiday to egypt. it can be a great place to be a tourist. but this raises concerns. most certainly. there is reason to be concerned, notjust for people who go on holiday to egypt but uk government has close ties to egypt and they give them, they have trade deals and also through the un they provide them with training in terms of the same police that are targeting and attacking these lgbtq members. although, for example, the eu in the us, egypt receives a lot of aid, notjust

eu in the us, egypt receives a lot of aid, not just from eu in the us, egypt receives a lot of aid, notjust from the west but also arab countries —— the eu and the us. in the west, team—1—macro people are protected by law, so these money is being sent to the egyptian police —— lgbtq people are protected by law. uk is also training the egyptian police and the foreign secretary said in response to the claims and allegations that we made in the film, that while they train through the un, specifically with the allegations and the things we presented in the firm, they do not train them of those tactics. —— in the film. not train them of those tactics. -- in the film-— you can watch the full investigation, queer egypt under attack on bbc iplayer now. the princess of wales has launched a new campaign to raise awareness of the importance of the first five years of a child's life. the project has been described

by palace sources as the princess's "life's work" and draws attention to how babies and children develop in response to early experiences. here's our royal correspondent, daniela relph, and a warning her piece does contain some flash photography. kirkgate market in leeds, where the princess of wales has come to launch this new campaign. the focus is on greater awareness of the first five years of our lives and how they shape the adults we become. last night, the princess laid out her vision for the campaign and why it matters to her so much. it is essential to not only understand the unique importance of our earliest years but to know what we can all do to help raise future generations of happy, healthy adults. shaping us is a long term campaign, and we're starting by highlighting how we develop during early childhood and why these years matter so much. we can't wait to meet you.

the launch comes with a film, birth to five years old in 90 seconds, designed to show how a child develops and how communication and connection is vital. our children, their brains develop between pregnancy and the age of five, quicker and more crucial than at any other point in their life. and i think it's something that maybe i wasn't aware of until i fully dug deep into this. advisers to the princess of wales have stressed that this campaign isn't about politics or policy, but about raising public awareness. it comes at a challenging time for some young families where financial stresses dominate. but the princess of wales believes she can make a difference in an area that's been described as her life's work. daniela relph, bbc news, leeds.

it's an exciting day for eurovision fans as the competition heads to liverpool as part of the official hand—over from turin. we'll also find out which countries have secured their place in the semi—finals as part of a special programme on bbc two this evening. jayne mccubbin has been to liverpool to see how the city is gearing up for one of the biggest music events of the year. something big is on its way to liverpool, and liverpool is very excited. eurovision. i love it, just love it. eurovision! exciting. it is exciting. such a pleasure to be able to hold it in this city, i can't wait. tonight the keys of the competition will be handed overfrom turin to liverpool and then the live draw takes place, deciding which country goes into which semifinal. it will be hosted live on bbc two at 7pm by superfans aj 0dudu and rylan clark.

this kicks off eurovision like you have never seen it before. 2023, it's the first, biggest event of the year, as far as i'm concerned. absolutely. and we are so excited. the thing about eurovision, why it is so special to me personally, it is that sort of two weeks of the year, that whole programme, where nothing else matters, it doesn't matter what is going on anywhere else, everybody is, for want of a better term, united by the music. the grand final is on may 13th and this man is in charge of the whole thing for the bbc. the pressure! don't worry, only 160 million people are watching, yeah. you know, let's face it, a time when a bit ofjoy, a bit of light, a bit of togetherness wouldn't go amiss. it is a gift, and no better place to do than in liverpool. liverpool's bars, pubs, and clubs are raring to go. i thought eurovision, you just come for the night, and it is not. it is a two or three week event,

it'sjust going to be insane. the night it was announced i felt like the president or something, i got on the phone and i was like, "get me the fizz, get me the fizz, we need the fizz." he's bringing former eurovision winners to liverpool to host one of very many eurovision parties. is there any other place to be? than liverpool? absolutely not! no. # you're making your mind up...# eurovision now compared to how it was when we did it is fantastic, but back then it was just... very staid, very proper, very conservative, in their suits. now it is just one big party, the whole of it, it's the best thing ever. it is billed as the music event of the year, but of course... the winner, ukraine! ..liverpool is hosting on behalf of ukraine. for you, this is really important? it is very important because eurovision is in the uk,

but it will be ukrainian voices. eurovision is an event which will show that life has not stopped for ukrainians, you are saying this gives people hope? yes, they have this hope in the future, and that they will win. hope is what it means to these ukrainians in liverpool, an event which promises to unite us with music. jayne mccubbin, bbc news. now it's time for a look at the weather with stav. hello. there was a bit of a grey start across the south of the country, but skies have brightened up and it looks like it's going to stay bright for much of england and wales through this afternoon. bar the odd shower. but it will be windy across the north, certainly across scotland, with winds picking up to reach gale force and there'll be lots of showers continuing as well. the reason why this area of low pressure will be edging closer to the north of the uk, which will bring these gales certainly to scotland and frequent showers, some of them heavy with some thunder

in places, some snow on the hills. but apart from the odd shower towards west wales, western england, much of england and wales will be dry with plenty of sunshine. top temperatures, 12 degrees in the south, cooler further north. now, as we move through this evening to the first part of the night, this area of low pressure will bring a spell of even severe gales to the far north of scotland, gusts up to 80 miles an hour, perhaps for 0rkney, even as far north as shetland. so we're likely see some disruption here from these gales. there'll be frequent showers or longer spells of rain across the northern half of the country. so quite a stormy night to come across the north versus a lot quieter in the south, closer to an area of high pressure which will be sitting to the south west of the uk. now that deep low continues to pull out into the norwegian sea on wednesday, taking the strong winds with it. but it's going to be quite a stormy start to wednesday across the north east of scotland. the winds gradually easing down through the day with sunshine appearing as well. but we'll have this weather front bringing some rain to northern ireland,

southern scotland, northern england down into the midlands, into eastern england at times. to the south of it is generally dry, one or two showers, some sunny spells and again mild, double figures in the south, a bit cooler in the north. 0n thursday,another weather front passes across the north of the country that will bring outbreaks of rain some it will be quite heavy in the north and the west, perhaps a little bit of brightness over higher ground for eastern scotland. but for northern ireland, much of england and wales there'll be variable amounts of cloud, some spells of sunshine. we'll all notice though it's going to feel very mild for the time of year. temperatures in double figures thanks to these southwesterly winds where the fronts flirt with in far north of the uk as we move through friday, again, another very mild day to come and then signs of something a bit cold is starting to spread down from the northwest as you move through the weekend. so friday, another rather benign day. lots of cloud around,

but very mild as things start to turn a bit colder, though, as we head through saturday and sunday.

a this is bbc news i'mjane hill, the headlines. five years after a report into the treatment of the hillsborough disaster, the police promised change after they say the relatives of the victims were failed. we are now into 2023. how long does it take to read a report, to come with the advice into what you think should happen. the uk will be the only major economy to shrink in 2023 according to the imf, although it says there will be better news next year. paper chase has gone into administration but tesco takes over the brand, however tesco itself announces 2000

supermarket jobs are at however tesco itself announces 2000 supermarketjobs are at risk. a suspended prison sentence for the man who drove a jcb digger into a house in wales, causing £28,000 worth of damage. and united in music, that is this your�*s official slogan in the eurovision song contest which officially arrives in liverpool today. police chiefs have promised a cultural change as they are promising —— as they apologise to the victims of the hillsborough disaster nearly 34 years after the disaster. it comes after

publication. 97 people died as a result of the crashes on the terraces of the sheffield wednesday ground back in 1989. our north of england correspondentjudith morris has this report. the horror of hillsborough continues to be felt almost 34 years after the crush on the terraces that killed 97 liverpool supporters. police failures were the main cause of the disaster, but the fans were wrongly blamed and, for years, theirfamilies fought forjustice. # walk on, walk on with hope...# i in 2016, they rejoiced when freshl inquests returned verdicts of unlawful killing. the former bishop of liverpool, jamesjones, was then commissioned to write a report about the experience of the hillsborough families to ensure their pain and suffering wouldn't be repeated. the government is yet to respond. i think we have to put ourselves in the shoes of the families. this year, it will be 34 years since the tragedy. and for them to wait for so long

for a response to these 25 points of learning is intolerable and adds to their pain and, i think, in some instances, even affects their own grieving. let's hope that's only the beginning of what's going to be done. margaret aspinall, whose sonjames was killed, is one of those who has campaigned on behalf of the hillsborough families. she is also critical of the time it's taken to hear from government. i rememberwriting — idon't know who it was to, to somebody in government — to say i hope this report does not get put on a shelf gathering dust for years, like other things in the past have done. we are now into 2023. how long does it take to read a report, to come out with your findings of what you think should happen? when bishopjames published this report in 2017, he included 25 recommendations, just under half of which were directed at the police. today's response by the police is the first since then by a major public authority and it includes the first ever apology for hillsborough on behalf of all the police forces in england and wales. there are calls for there to be a hillsborough law which would help report does not get put on the shelf gathering _ report does not get put on the shelf gathering dust. we are now into

2025 _ gathering dust. we are now into 2023. how long does it take to read a report, _ 2023. how long does it take to read a report, to — 2023. how long does it take to read a report, to come out with the findings — a report, to come out with the findings to— a report, to come out with the findings to what you think should happen? — findings to what you think should ha en? ~ findings to what you think should hauen?. �*, findings to what you think should hauen? j , findings to what you think should hauen? ,, ,, happen? when bishop james publish this re ort happen? when bishop james publish this report in — happen? when bishop james publish this report in 2017, _ happen? when bishop james publish this report in 2017, he _ happen? when bishop james publish this report in 2017, he included i happen? when bishop james publish this report in 2017, he included 25 i this report in 2017, he included 25 recommendations, just under half of which were aimed directly at the police. today's response by the police. today's response by the police is the first since then by a major public authority and it includes the first—ever apology for hillsborough on behalf of all of the police forces in england and wales. there are calls to be law which would help victims of future mass tragedies. the government says it will publish its response to the bishop was back report due course. well, thatjoint response today comes from the national police chiefs council and the college of policing. chief constable andy marsh is chief executive officer of the college of policing. policing has apologised today in response to the report by bishop james jones. policing has apologised and recognised that policing

was the primary cause of the disaster, the hillsborough disaster, tragically, and policing is also apologising for the now nearly 34 years that the families have had to wait, to have their questions answered and to have justice and have some form of closure about what happened on that awful day. you say it is 34 years, | but it is more than five years since the report, i so why has it taken policing so long to respond? it is a serious report and policing wants to thank bishopjones for the diligence and candour that he brought to his report. he raised serious issues. there are 25 recommendations for other agencies beyond policing, policing has less than half. it is important that we are sincere. it is important in making our response that we talk meaningfully about what we are going to do to make sure that we learn

from what happened and do our very best to promise and commit that that will never happen again. chief constable andy marsh from the college of policing, there. it follows on from the report into the hillsborough disaster nearly 34 years ago. the time now is six minutes past four. we are going to break in for a little bit to see events at westminster because the health secretary, steve barclay, is appearing before the parliament's health select committee and we thought it might be worth hearing some of this. we know a lot about strikes at the moment, there will be more next week, and the pressures facing the nhs generally. let's hear more of the questions to steve barclay. more of the questions to steve barcla . ., , ., ., barclay. now they have got their remit in november _ barclay. now they have got their remit in november and - barclay. now they have got their remit in november and that i barclay. now they have got their remit in november and that has| remit in november and that has happened for the last two years. their aim now, the best they can do they say is the end of april, obviously there is some backdating,

maybe more if they are generous and it is accepted. could we have some acceptance from you that to get back to the september remit letter would be a good place to be? yes. to the september remit letter would be a good place to be?— be a good place to be? yes, i think the oint be a good place to be? yes, i think the point you _ be a good place to be? yes, i think the point you raised _ be a good place to be? yes, i think the point you raised is _ be a good place to be? yes, i think the point you raised is a _ be a good place to be? yes, i think the point you raised is a very i be a good place to be? yes, i think the point you raised is a very fair i the point you raised is a very fair one and — the point you raised is a very fair one and it — the point you raised is a very fair one and it is _ the point you raised is a very fair one and it is one i have had constructive engagement with the trade _ constructive engagement with the trade unions on, which is i don't think— trade unions on, which is i don't think either— trade unions on, which is i don't think either party want the final conclusion of the pay review body to be as _ conclusion of the pay review body to be as late _ conclusion of the pay review body to be as late as it has been in recent years _ be as late as it has been in recent years so — be as late as it has been in recent years so i — be as late as it has been in recent years. so i think there is common because _ years. so i think there is common because on— years. so i think there is common because on that. i think there has been _ because on that. i think there has been a _ because on that. i think there has been a very— because on that. i think there has been a very constructive reason why the remit _ been a very constructive reason why the remit letter went in on the 16th of novemberand the remit letter went in on the 16th of november and why there have been further— of november and why there have been further discussions on evidence before — further discussions on evidence before submitting, not least so we can take _ before submitting, not least so we can take on — before submitting, not least so we can take on board some of the trade union— can take on board some of the trade union concerns, because as you know, chairman. _ union concerns, because as you know, chairman. a _ union concerns, because as you know, chairman, a number of the trade unions _ chairman, a number of the trade unions have _ chairman, a number of the trade unions have expressed concerns about engaging _ unions have expressed concerns about engaging with the pay review body process _ engaging with the pay review body process as a whole. so we wanted to make _ process as a whole. so we wanted to make sure _ process as a whole. so we wanted to make sure that the evidence best

reflected — make sure that the evidence best reflected the wider economic circumstance, obviously inflation forecasts — circumstance, obviously inflation forecasts have moved significantly both ways. if you go back to the sr 21they— both ways. if you go back to the sr 21 they were forecast to peak at 24% when _ 21 they were forecast to peak at 24% when the _ 21 they were forecast to peak at 24% when the sr 21 agreement was reached — when the sr 21 agreement was reached. we now know they peaked at 11% reached. we now know they peaked at ii% which _ reached. we now know they peaked at 11% which has been very different, and that— 11% which has been very different, and that has been a key factor that trade _ and that has been a key factor that trade union— and that has been a key factor that trade union colleagues have been raising _ trade union colleagues have been raising in— trade union colleagues have been raising in terms of their representation. it has been right to have those — representation. it has been right to have those discussions. it is also reasonable — have those discussions. it is also reasonable that these are cross government because the centre will want to— government because the centre will want to take on board the discussions the education secretary is having _ discussions the education secretary is having. the teaching unions and other— is having. the teaching unions and other ministers and so forth. that is the _ other ministers and so forth. that is the process. a other ministers and so forth. that is the process-— is the process. a final word from me. last is the process. a final word from me- last week — is the process. a final word from me. last week in _ is the process. a final word from me. last week in your _ is the process. a final word from | me. last week in your statement is the process. a final word from i me. last week in your statement that oral questions you announced this major condition is i think it is fair to say it has caused some concern. cancer research uk, it is

very disappointing that ministers have opted to publish the strategy rather than the ambitious ten year cancer plan they had originally promised. pancreatic cancer uk. we struggle to see how the urge detailed action other and less survivable cancers can be achieved within a strategy spanning six enormous health areas. mcmillan, at a time when cancer services are already under immense pressure, macmillan are worried that focus on cancer will be deleted or downgraded in light of this change. secretary of state, what can you say to the cancer community to relieve their concerns that cancer has been downgraded as a result of its inclusion in a major conditions strategy. i inclusion in a ma'or conditions strate: . .., inclusion in a ma'or conditions strate: . ., , , inclusion in a ma'or conditions stratet. , strategy. i can absolutely reassure ou that is strategy. i can absolutely reassure you that is not _ strategy. i can absolutely reassure you that is not the _ strategy. i can absolutely reassure you that is not the case. _ strategy. i can absolutely reassure you that is not the case. it - strategy. i can absolutely reassure you that is not the case. it is i strategy. i can absolutely reassure you that is not the case. it is very | you that is not the case. it is very much _ you that is not the case. it is very much a _ you that is not the case. it is very much a central part of our focus. in fact. _ much a central part of our focus. in fact. if— much a central part of our focus. in fact. if you — much a central part of our focus. in fact. if you go— much a central part of our focus. in fact, if you go back to the statement i gave to the house on the first day— statement i gave to the house on the first day when the house resumed after the _ first day when the house resumed after the christmas recess, i talked. _ after the christmas recess, i talked, and professor chris whitty

has taught, about our three stage response — has taught, about our three stage response. the first bid of 250 million — response. the first bid of 250 million was immediately aimed at relieving — million was immediately aimed at relieving pressure and the second part was— relieving pressure and the second part was what i announced in the house _ part was what i announced in the house yesterday in terms of the emergency care and recovery plan which _ emergency care and recovery plan which is _ emergency care and recovery plan which is about moving resilience into next— which is about moving resilience into next year. the third bit is about— into next year. the third bit is about prevention, which is what we also need _ about prevention, which is what we also need to lean into if we are going _ also need to lean into if we are going to — also need to lean into if we are going to shift the terms of the nhs. the reality— going to shift the terms of the nhs. the reality on cancer, which i know this is— the reality on cancer, which i know this is something you have taken a leadership— this is something you have taken a leadership position on, is a quarter of us _ leadership position on, is a quarter of us are _ leadership position on, is a quarter of us are living with more than one health— of us are living with more than one health condition and two thirds of cancer— health condition and two thirds of cancer patients have at least one other— cancer patients have at least one other condition. i think to understand why we are looking at this list. — understand why we are looking at this list, the fact is we need to stop— this list, the fact is we need to stop reflecting the fact that many patients — stop reflecting the fact that many patients have more than one condition— patients have more than one condition and what we have tended to have is— condition and what we have tended to have is a _ condition and what we have tended to have is a medical system which has seen _ have is a medical system which has seen greater specialisation but more

silos operating. i think we need to look more — silos operating. i think we need to look more holistically at how we treat _ look more holistically at how we treat the — look more holistically at how we treat the whole, rather than treating _ treat the whole, rather than treating single conditions. that is even _ treating single conditions. that is even more — treating single conditions. that is even more so as we see an older population. — even more so as we see an older population, where an older population, where an older population tends to have more than one health — population tends to have more than one health condition. so this is particularly targeted to the cancer community because, as i say, two thirds _ community because, as i say, two thirds of— community because, as i say, two thirds of cancer patients have at least _ thirds of cancer patients have at least one — thirds of cancer patients have at least one other condition. hopefully that gives _ least one other condition. hopefully that gives some reassurance that that gives some reassurance that that more — that gives some reassurance that that more holistic way of looking at how we _ that more holistic way of looking at how we approach these... we that more holistic way of looking at how we approach these. . .- how we approach these... we 'ust want to be — how we approach these... we 'ust want to be sure i how we approach these... we 'ust want to be sure that i how we approach these... we 'ust want to be sure that when i how we approach these... we just want to be sure that when you i how we approach these... we just l want to be sure that when you look at the two—week wait, 78.8% of people are seen by a specialist in two weeks, the target is 93%. look at the 28 day faster diagnosis standard, and 69.7% were told they did not have cancer within four weeks of an urgent referral, the target is 75%. when we had one of

our early topical sessions, i know they are working their socks off, but we can't let anything slip because this is a serious situation with cancer services and i think people want to be assured from you that the cancer strategy will have its rightful place and focus from you secretary of state. i am very ha - to you secretary of state. i am very happy to give _ you secretary of state. i am very happy to give that _ you secretary of state. i am very happy to give that assurance i you secretary of state. i am very happy to give that assurance and knowing — happy to give that assurance and knowing your interest in this, you can imagine — knowing your interest in this, you can imagine when we were drawing up the major— can imagine when we were drawing up the major conditions approach, we had that— the major conditions approach, we had that in— the major conditions approach, we had that in mind as well. you mention— had that in mind as well. you mention macmillan, who are absolutely key stakeholder in this regard _ absolutely key stakeholder in this regard and if i can quote back from macmillan — regard and if i can quote back from macmillan. they previously said, the presence _ macmillan. they previously said, the presence of— macmillan. they previously said, the presence of long—term conditions is associated — presence of long—term conditions is associated with poorer cancer survival — associated with poorer cancer survival rates and a higher level of need _ survival rates and a higher level of need we — survival rates and a higher level of need. we need to care for the whole person— need. we need to care for the whole person with — need. we need to care for the whole person with cancer, not just treat single _ person with cancer, not just treat

single diseases and their individual symptom _ single diseases and their individual symptom separately. so macmillan themselves have previously called for national policy is to consider the impact of other conditions on cancer~ _ the impact of other conditions on cancer. that is what we are doing with the — cancer. that is what we are doing with the major conditions strategy. there _ with the major conditions strategy. there is— with the major conditions strategy. there is one exception to that and maybe _ there is one exception to that and maybe mr— there is one exception to that and maybe mr morris and others on the committee — maybe mr morris and others on the committee have a particular interest in this— committee have a particular interest in this given again in their past work. — in this given again in their past work. but _ in this given again in their past work, but on suicide we do think that is— work, but on suicide we do think that is something that warrants a separate — that is something that warrants a separate suicide strategy because that does not fit in quite the same way within— that does not fit in quite the same way within the approach we are taking — way within the approach we are taking on— way within the approach we are taking on major conditions, so there will be _ taking on major conditions, so there will be a _ taking on major conditions, so there will be a separate approach in terms of taking _ will be a separate approach in terms of taking that forward, but mental health— of taking that forward, but mental health as — of taking that forward, but mental health as a whole fits within the major— health as a whole fits within the major conditions paper.- major conditions paper. doctor caroline johnson. _ major conditions paper. doctor caroline johnson. thank i major conditions paper. doctor caroline johnson. thank you, | caroline johnson. thank you, secretary _ caroline johnson. thank you, secretary of _ caroline johnson. thank you, secretary of state. _ caroline johnson. thank you, secretary of state. i - caroline johnson. thank you, secretary of state. i have i caroline johnson. thank you, j secretary of state. i have got caroline johnson. thank you, i secretary of state. i have got three questions on three quite different areas. the first one lays on from cancer and one of the things we know which is preventable cause of cancer is tobacco smoking. the khan review

was published lastjune and the then secretary of state committed both to using the information to inform the health and inequalities paper and also to publish a tobacco control plan. that is a difficult message to balance, both to get people to stop and to vape, was preventing children from taking up either. what response have you got to that? when will your tobacco control plan be published? firstly, everyone recognises when you look— firstly, everyone recognises when you look at— firstly, everyone recognises when you look at prevention work in terms of smoking _ you look at prevention work in terms of smoking cessation that everyone recognises — of smoking cessation that everyone recognises in the context of lung cancer— recognises in the context of lung cancer the — recognises in the context of lung cancer the centrality of our approach in terms of smoking cessation. there are a number of areas _ cessation. there are a number of areas where _ cessation. there are a number of areas where we can be innovative as part of— areas where we can be innovative as part of that — areas where we can be innovative as part of that. we may later in this session— part of that. we may later in this session come onto the regulatory flexibility— session come onto the regulatory flexibility is that we have as a result— flexibility is that we have as a result of— flexibility is that we have as a result of leaving the european union — result of leaving the european union. 0ne result of leaving the european union. one was in the context of

vaping _ union. one was in the context of vaping and — union. one was in the context of vaping and the dosage level of vaping — vaping and the dosage level of vaping actually can be flexed in terms — vaping actually can be flexed in terms of— vaping actually can be flexed in terms of our regulatory freedom to better— terms of our regulatory freedom to better shift people away from smoking into vaping. what we are looking _ smoking into vaping. what we are looking at— smoking into vaping. what we are looking at within the context of our wider— looking at within the context of our wider prevention work is firstly recognising that smoking cessation is absolutely core to our approach on tackling — is absolutely core to our approach on tackling lung cancer which is extremely difficult in terms of treatment. we are looking at some of the regulatory freedoms. the . uestion the regulatory freedoms. the question is — the regulatory freedoms. the question is when _ the regulatory freedoms. tie question is when will your plan be published? it was committed to last year but it has not been published yet. year but it has not been published et. ~ . year but it has not been published et. . . ., , year but it has not been published et. ~ ., ., , ., ., ., yet. we have not set out a firm date on that, yet. we have not set out a firm date on that. we — yet. we have not set out a firm date on that. we are _ yet. we have not set out a firm date on that, we are doing _ yet. we have not set out a firm date on that, we are doing further- yet. we have not set out a firm date on that, we are doing further work. | on that, we are doing further work. the priority— on that, we are doing further work. the priority has been around the recovery— the priority has been around the recovery plans in terms of waiting times— recovery plans in terms of waiting times and — recovery plans in terms of waiting times and there has been a particular focus on that in recent weeks — particular focus on that in recent weeks. what i'm saying, doctor johnson. — weeks. what i'm saying, doctor johnson. is _ weeks. what i'm saying, doctor johnson, is the fact we recognise the importance of smoking cessation in relation _ the importance of smoking cessation in relation to cancer. | the importance of smoking cessation in relation to cancer.— in relation to cancer. i agree and we need to _ in relation to cancer. i agree and we need to see _ in relation to cancer. i agree and we need to see it _ in relation to cancer. i agree and we need to see it in _ in relation to cancer. i agree and we need to see it in the - in relation to cancer. i agree and we need to see it in the framing| in relation to cancer. i agree and l we need to see it in the framing of the benefits that come in terms of

cardiovascular disease, the excess deaths we are seeing and in terms of cancer prevention and this goes back to the major conditions strategy that trying to see this from the perspective of a patient, which is that they want that join the conversation. this is where secondary prevention, we really want to see a greater emphasis on that and secondary prevention is the opportunity for all health care professionals to say what can they do when they have somebody in front of them to take this opportunity to think about smoking cessation? i do think about smoking cessation? i do think about smoking cessation? i do think about the range of options that we have. so using vaping as a bridge to quitting, but also some of the other methods. we have seen this in pregnancy, for example, where we see inequalities across the country and where we may need a range of approaches to work with pregnant women so we can really see a focus in that such important area. my

second question is on a different topic. we know there is an increasing number of children experiencing gender dysphoria. we know there are spiralling waiting lists, these children are waiting an unacceptably long time for a professional, medical assessment from these expert clinics. last summer, doctor hilary cass said the tavistock clinic, the only clinic for this specific specialism, it was not fit for purpose and she recommended it was close. there has been a consultation on an interim service guideline, but at the moment is two new clinics that are to open in the spring, we have not heard much from the government. what has been done to ensure these children get better care and the waiting lists are coming down? and also to follow up, how are you making sure that the people who run the clinic before so badly are not put in

charge of running the new ones as well? . ~ ., charge of running the new ones as well? . ~' . ,., well? taking the latter point, i think one of — well? taking the latter point, i think one of the _ well? taking the latter point, i think one of the best _ well? taking the latter point, i think one of the best ways i well? taking the latter point, i think one of the best ways of l think one of the best ways of addressing that is greater transparency. 0ne addressing that is greater transparency. one of the concerns that about — transparency. one of the concerns that about what happened latterly that about what happened latterly that one _ that about what happened latterly that one of my ministers has spoken out about. _ that one of my ministers has spoken out about, was the lack of transparency in terms of what was happening — transparency in terms of what was happening at the concerns in terms of the _ happening at the concerns in terms of the advice and the decisions often _ of the advice and the decisions often for— of the advice and the decisions often for children of a very young a-e often for children of a very young age at _ often for children of a very young age at which they were taking. there are concerns — age at which they were taking. there are concerns around those which were involved _ are concerns around those which were involved previously and part of that is been _ involved previously and part of that is been much more transparent in terms _ is been much more transparent in terms of— is been much more transparent in terms of what actions were taken and how people _ terms of what actions were taken and how people are held to account for that _ how people are held to account for that i_ how people are held to account for that ithink— how people are held to account for that. i think more generally we need to be _ that. i think more generally we need to be cautious in terms of what decisions — to be cautious in terms of what decisions very young children are taking _ decisions very young children are taking and — decisions very young children are taking and at what stage of life that is — taking and at what stage of life that is i— taking and at what stage of life that is. i think ensuring that we empower— that is. i think ensuring that we empower the patient, that we reflect the stage _ empower the patient, that we reflect the stage of life they are up before decisions _ the stage of life they are up before decisions are taken from which it is

hard to— decisions are taken from which it is hard to return. in decisions are taken from which it is hard to return.— hard to return. in the interest of transparency. — hard to return. in the interest of transparency, there _ hard to return. in the interest of transparency, there was - hard to return. in the interest of transparency, there was a i transparency, there was a consultation started and completed on the lith of september and the clinics were meant to open in april 2023, not long from now. are you confident those new clinics will be open by then? i confident those new clinics will be open by then?— open by then? i will have to write back to you _ open by then? i will have to write back to you in _ open by then? i will have to write back to you in terms _ open by then? i will have to write back to you in terms of— open by then? i will have to write back to you in terms of the - open by then? i will have to write | back to you in terms of the timing when _ back to you in terms of the timing when the — back to you in terms of the timing when the clinics are opening. to this is when the clinics are opening. this is an when the clinics are opening. if? this is an nhs programme of reform and the nhs is implementing the cass review, so we will get you an update from the nhs in the current timelines and plans. this from the nhs in the current timelines and plans.- from the nhs in the current timelines and plans. this is an area where it is — timelines and plans. this is an area where it is clear _ timelines and plans. this is an area where it is clear that _ timelines and plans. this is an area where it is clear that the _ timelines and plans. this is an area where it is clear that the evidence i where it is clear that the evidence base _ where it is clear that the evidence base for— where it is clear that the evidence base for describing _ where it is clear that the evidence base for describing —— _ where it is clear that the evidence base for describing —— prescribing| base for describing —— prescribing treatment— base for describing —— prescribing treatment is_ base for describing —— prescribing treatment is uncertain _ base for describing —— prescribing treatment is uncertain and - base for describing —— prescribing treatment is uncertain and we - base for describing —— prescribingl treatment is uncertain and we are activety— treatment is uncertain and we are activety working _ treatment is uncertain and we are actively working on _ treatment is uncertain and we are actively working on the _ treatment is uncertain and we are actively working on the research i actively working on the research side to— actively working on the research side to work— actively working on the research side to work with _ actively working on the research side to work with the _ actively working on the research side to work with the nhs - actively working on the research side to work with the nhs in - actively working on the research - side to work with the nhs in england to look— side to work with the nhs in england to look at— side to work with the nhs in england to look at how— side to work with the nhs in england to look at how we _ side to work with the nhs in england to look at how we offer _ to look at how we offer evidence—based - to look at how we offer evidence—based care. i to look at how we offer i evidence—based care. and to look at how we offer - evidence—based care. and to to look at how we offer _

evidence—based care. and to make sure that _ evidence—based care. and to make sure that we — evidence—based care. and to make sure that we would _ evidence—based care. and to make sure that we would use _ evidence—based care. and to make sure that we would use a _ evidence—based care. and to make sure that we would use a whole - evidence—based care. and to make i sure that we would use a whole range of clinical— sure that we would use a whole range of clinical research _ sure that we would use a whole range of clinical research options, _ of clinical research options, including _ of clinical research options, including randomised - of clinical research options, i including randomised control of clinical research options, - including randomised control trials. we have _ including randomised control trials. we have seeh— including randomised control trials. we have seen how— including randomised control trials. we have seen how they— including randomised control trials. we have seen how they worked - including randomised control trials. we have seen how they worked in. including randomised control trials. . we have seen how they worked in the pandemic— we have seen how they worked in the pandemic when— we have seen how they worked in the pandemic when we _ we have seen how they worked in the pandemic when we had _ we have seen how they worked in the pandemic when we had uncertainty. pandemic when we had uncertainty over treatments. _ pandemic when we had uncertainty over treatments. and _ pandemic when we had uncertainty over treatments. and also - pandemic when we had uncertainty over treatments. and also to - pandemic when we had uncertainty over treatments. and also to be i over treatments. and also to be clear— over treatments. and also to be clear about _ over treatments. and also to be clear about the _ over treatments. and also to be clear about the outcomes - over treatments. and also to be clear about the outcomes and l clear about the outcomes and understanding _ clear about the outcomes and understanding not _ clear about the outcomes and understanding notjust- clear about the outcomes and understanding not just the . clear about the outcomes and . understanding notjust the short term _ understanding notjust the short term outcomes, _ understanding notjust the short term outcomes, but _ understanding notjust the short term outcomes, but investing. understanding notjust the short term outcomes, but investing in collecting — term outcomes, but investing in collecting the _ term outcomes, but investing in collecting the longer—term - term outcomes, but investing in - collecting the longer—term outcomes. this is_ collecting the longer—term outcomes. this is not— collecting the longer—term outcomes. this is notjust — collecting the longer—term outcomes. this is not just the _ collecting the longer—term outcomes. this is notjust the uk. _ collecting the longer—term outcomes. this is notjust the uk. this _ collecting the longer—term outcomes. this is notjust the uk. this is - collecting the longer—term outcomes. this is notjust the uk. this is an- this is notjust the uk. this is an area _ this is notjust the uk. this is an area of— this is notjust the uk. this is an area of uncertainty— this is notjust the uk. this is an area of uncertainty on _ this is notjust the uk. this is an area of uncertainty on an - area of uncertainty on an international— area of uncertainty on an international basis- area of uncertainty on an international basis and l area of uncertainty on an international basis and ii area of uncertainty on an - international basis and i think we are going — international basis and i think we are going to— international basis and i think we are going to be— international basis and i think we are going to be leaders— international basis and i think we are going to be leaders in- international basis and i think we are going to be leaders in how. international basis and i think we l are going to be leaders in how we approach — are going to be leaders in how we approach this _ are going to be leaders in how we approach this going _ are going to be leaders in how we approach this going forward. - are going to be leaders in how we approach this going forward. my. approach this going forward. my final approach this going forward. final question. approach this going forward. my final question. shall— approach this going forward. my final question. shall we - approach this going forward. my final question. shall we come i approach this going forward. my i final question. shall we come back to dentistry? _ final question. shall we come back to dentistry? i _ final question. shall we come back to dentistry? ijust _ final question. shall we come back to dentistry? i just want _ final question. shall we come back to dentistry? i just want to - final question. shall we come back to dentistry? i just want to get - final question. shall we come back to dentistry? i just want to get the l to dentistry? i just want to get the mental health piece in. taste to dentistry? i just want to get the mental health piece in.— mental health piece in. we are ullin: mental health piece in. we are putting away — mental health piece in. we are pulling away from _ mental health piece in. we are pulling away from the - mental health piece in. we are pulling away from the select i pulling away from the select committee hearing for now. we will keep your eyes and ears across it. steve barclay is in front of the health select committee and such very wide—ranging topics to discuss, as you have already picked up on, so we will keep an eye on that. we will

pull away because there are several major stories here this afternoon and we must talk about some of those, starting with the uk economy. more now on our top story this afternoon — the prediction by the international monetary fund that the uk economy will shrink by nought—point—six per cent this year. that's worse than any other major advanced nation. that is a sharp downgrade from an earlier prediction, although the imf does say the uk is now on the right track. the chancellor said in response that the uk had outperformed many forecasts last year. i will be discussing this with my guest in a moment, first let's have some of the details of what the imf is saying. here is our economics correspondent andy verity. british workers don't need a washington financial institution to tell them that rocketing prices for energy and food are making them poorer and the economy weaker. that is true the world over. economists at the imf forecast our economy will be worse hit than others this year,

the only one among 15 advanced economies to shrink. that is partly because the government is doing less than other countries to shield households from high wholesale gas prices, so we will pay higher energy bills. we have a very challenging environment in the united kingdom, an energy crisis that is very strong and in a country that has a high dependence on liquid natural gas and a high pass through of the wholesale price to the retail price so this is adding to the cost of living crisis. as a response to this high inflation there is a tightening of monetary policy by the bank of england and in the uk this feeds quickly into mortgages. while falling prices for commodities from oil to gas and slowing inflation have improved the outlook for growth across the world, in the uk the outlook has been getting worse. in its previous forecast the imf expected the uk to grow by 0.3% in 2023, better than some other advanced economies. now it is expecting it to shrink by 0.6%, considerably worse. the imf expects the uk economy to do

worse than other advanced economies not because of global factors, but domestic policy. the bank of england is raising interest rates and the government said it wants to restrain spending at the same time as it is raising more in tax from households, not less. all of that takes money out of the economy so households and firms have less money to spend on everything else and that is what slows the economy down. according to data from the marketing consultants cantor index, consumers are also facing inflation in grocery prices of over 16%. everything, milk, butter, cheese, bacon, everything pretty much and it's notjust 5p or 10p, you are talking 25p, 30 p. the account balance is definitely a bit lower after buying a whole load of groceries and stuff but you just get on with it. it's something you have to get on with, unfortunately. everything seems to be going up so it isjust another— part of it, i think. this year is going to be probably a year of stagnant growth. that is really bad after a long

period of very poor growth growth. we should be recovering quickly after covid. we are not. most households are going to be worst off over the period of this year, but it is going to look confusing because i think on thursday the bank of england is going to say things are better than they thought they were in the autumn, still not good at all, but better than they thought they were in the autumn. the government pointed to imf comments that the government's policy was "on the right track", with the uk forecast to grow faster thanjapan or germany in the coming years. some economists on the bank of england's monetary policy committee already think that raising interest rates again could hit the economic breaks to hide when we may already be in recession. tomorrow the committee will meet to decide its next move. andy verity, bbc news. i asked andy whether the uk was being hit by global forces or whether this was a result of domestic policies.— whether this was a result of domestic policies. whether this was a result of domestic olicies. . , , . domestic policies. last year we did

well, we domestic policies. last year we did well. we got _ domestic policies. last year we did well, we got 4.1% _ domestic policies. last year we did well, we got 4.1% growth, - domestic policies. last year we did well, we got 4.1% growth, better l well, we got 4.1% growth, better than other countries, but this year the imf says we will do worse. the reasons are we are more susceptible to higher wholesale gas prices than other economies, partly because we are not offering as big a cushion to households and firms as the french are, for example. when you get high household —— wholesale gas prices, they feed through into our bills and that means we have less money to spend on everything else. we also have higher inflation than other economies, so in the uk at the last count it was 10.5%. in the eurozone it is 9%, in the us it is less than 7%. so that again is worse and therefore they are anticipating that therefore they are anticipating that the bank of england will have to raise interest rates faster in order to try to head off that inflation. the mechanism for that is when they raise interest rates those people with variable rate mortgages pay more and they have got less money to spend on everything else. similarly the cover with its tax and spend

policies taking money out of the economy. if you look at the last public finance numbers we are paying more in income tax than we were last yearfor more in income tax than we were last year for various technical reasons to do with the fact they have frozen the thresholds. more of us have gone over the threshold and are paying higher rates of tax and more tax money is going into the treasury but we have got less to spend and again the economy slows down. it is really policy reasons, what the government and the bank of england are doing in order to try to slow inflation down, which makes the uk economic prospects worse.— which makes the uk economic prospects worse. that was our economics — prospects worse. that was our economics correspondent - prospects worse. that was our| economics correspondent andy prospects worse. that was our - economics correspondent andy verity. thank you for your time and waiting patiently for us. your thoughts on the imf report and the state of the uk economy right now.— uk economy right now. thank you, aood uk economy right now. thank you, good afternoon. — uk economy right now. thank you, good afternoon, thank _ uk economy right now. thank you, good afternoon, thank you - uk economy right now. thank you, good afternoon, thank you for - uk economy right now. thank you, i good afternoon, thank you for having me. the imf reportjust shows what

we already know, that households in the uk economy are struggling, they are not spending money, therefore demand is weak. in addition there is not enough investment in the economy. it is reallyjust a forecast of what we already know about the crisis we are already in. there is low wages, low demand and a lot of those low wages are trying to meet important costs of housing, food and fuel, which does not leave much space. basically this is all a policy choice as your correspondent was mentioning. but you can only go so far and it has now come to a head in which after covid went precisely at this time we need to be doing the opposite, investing in the economy and spending more, the government is doing the opposite which is what the

imf forecast is also reflecting. the government _ imf forecast is also reflecting. the government is _ imf forecast is also reflecting. the government is saying today that forecasts have been wrong in the last couple of years, the uk has outperformed them and why should that be the case again this time round? ~ , ,., , , that be the case again this time round? ~ , , ,., ,~ round? absolutely, this is only a forecast and _ round? absolutely, this is only a forecast and it _ round? absolutely, this is only a forecast and it can _ round? absolutely, this is only a forecast and it can be _ round? absolutely, this is only a forecast and it can be wrong. i round? absolutely, this is only a| forecast and it can be wrong. but that requires in order to change the forecast that the government makes different policy choices. if it continues to squeeze how much it is spending out of the economy and is not allowing workers to bargain for higher wages through strike laws and not conceding to a lot of the wage demands that public sector workers are making, it means there is a nurse for this demand and investment to come from. specifically it is not just the imf forecast, all other data is also pointing towards the effect of these policy choices. the real wages in the economy, which means if you are the wages for inflation, are the lowest they have

beenin inflation, are the lowest they have been in 18 years in the uk and this is worse than other european economies. in a way it is a uk specific phenomena. in addition, the government could be investing in the nhs. isn't it the anniversary of brexit and the people of the uk were promised that instead of giving £350 million a week to the european union, they would invest it in the nhs? i am union, they would invest it in the nhs? iam not union, they would invest it in the nhs? i am not sure if you are saying that investment. if we have been purer, we would not be seeing the data that is leading to the forecast. yes, the data can change and the economy out perform, but it requires different choices to be made, but it does not appear that the government or the bank of england are willing to do that. can i ask ou england are willing to do that. can i ask you briefly about workforce and recruitment because i spoke to the federation of small businesses earlier and they said that as one of their members to a key problem is, they were having trouble recruiting people over the age of 50. what is

driving that? if people over the age of 50. what is driving that?— driving that? if they are having trouble recruiting _ driving that? if they are having trouble recruiting people - driving that? if they are having trouble recruiting people over| driving that? if they are having i trouble recruiting people over the age of 50, if they pay more wages, they will be able to recruit more. the fact of the matter is, the labour market is not exactly tight at the moment. if it were, we would see that in the form of increasing wages and we are not seeing that. what they should try to do is pay people more, perhaps make it so that they want to work for them. in addition we are forgetting that in many cases, especially for the over 505, we are still recovering from the pandemic, it is not over, a lot of times you see people being affected by illness and that can also contribute to people not joining or not wanting to work more. it is a variety of causes that is leading to people perhaps and small businesses having problems recruiting. the sure—fire way to ensure they can harm or is to pay

higher wages and people would want to work more. yeah thanks for joining yeah thanks forjoining us. it is a busy afternoon. we are now going to have a look at the weather prospects. it is going to be busy across the north of the uk with a deep low moving to the north of scotland which will bring a swathes of severe gales in the middle of the night. stormy night to come in more northern parts, but further south, it will be mostly dry with clear spells closer to the area of low pressure but this is the low i am talking about, scooting to the north, likely to cause some disruptive winds, severe gales into orkney and shetland. very windy at the moment as the winds pick up with plenty of showers rattling in across the northern half of the country and if few showers further south but this is the squeeze in the isobars

which moves between shetland and the north highlands, likely to give gusts of 70, may 80 mph, and those gales will ease off into the norwegian sea during the early start of wednesday, plenty of showers and longer spells of rain across the north with snow on the hills, but quieter further south. temperatures ranging from 3—6. see you later. hello, this is bbc news. the headlines: police chiefs apologise and promise �*cultural change' for profound failures — this comes five years after a report into the treatment of the families of the hillsborough disaster. we are now into 2023, how long does it take to read a report and come out with the findings and what you think should happen?

the uk will be the only major economy to shrink in 2023, according to the international monetary fund — although it says there'll be better news next year. paperchase goes into administration — tesco takes over the brand, but announces over 2,000 supermarketjobs are at risk. a suspended prison sentence for the man who drove a jcb digger into a house in wales — causing £28,000 worth of damage more now on our top story this afternoon — the prediction by the international monetary fund that the uk economy will shrink by 0.6% this year. monetary fund that the uk economy but monetary fund that the uk economy now we have afternoon, but now we have got the sport. good afternoon, it is football, transfer deadline day, we are going to talk about chelsea first of all. they could break the british transfer

record today if they sign the argentine footballer enzo fernandez. it looks like that could be on the cards, chelsea have made £105 million bid for the argentina midfielder enzo fernandez who had a break—out tournament at the world cup and was voted the best young player at the tournament. he only came to benfica in august but chelsea are very keen to bring him to london and that could be a potential british transfer record if that fee is agreed and goes through. chelsea very much have their eyes on enzo fernandez, that is the big one. but there could be other players leaving chelsea. they have been in talks over ziyech, the moroccan forward, eat is in talks with psg regarding a loan move and also the italy midfielderjoerg dino, he has had a £12 million bid accepted from

arsenal ——joerg had a £12 million bid accepted from arsenal —— joerg dino. had a £12 million bid accepted from arsenal ——joerg dino. it had a £12 million bid accepted from arsenal —— joerg dino. it would had a £12 million bid accepted from arsenal ——joerg dino. it would be an 18 month contract with a year further as an option. —— jorghino. we also have the wsl, also transfer deadline day, alessia russo, she's not going to go to arsenal? yes. not going to go to arsenal? yes, manchester _ not going to go to arsenal? yes, manchester united _ not going to go to arsenal? yes, manchester united have - not going to go to arsenal? 1a: manchester united have said she's not going at any price, this comes after two world fees that arsenal have tried to bid, they were desperate for alessia russo, and they really needed a striker. but manchester united have firmly told them no but her contract does run out in the summer so she can be available for a free contract so you would think arsenal would be one of the many clubs who will be in for her. chelsea also interested.

european champions lyon also interested as well as some clubs in america so that is one to keep a close eye on. do america so that is one to keep a close eye om— america so that is one to keep a close eye on-— america so that is one to keep a i close eye on-— america so that is one to keep a closee eon. ., ., close eye on. do not forget you can kee a close eye on. do not forget you can keep a close _ close eye on. do not forget you can keep a close eye — close eye on. do not forget you can keep a close eye across _ close eye on. do not forget you can keep a close eye across all - close eye on. do not forget you can keep a close eye across all of - close eye on. do not forget you can keep a close eye across all of the i keep a close eye across all of the speculation and the closed deals on the bbc sport website. christian eriksen is expected to be out for an extended period according to manchester united manager erik ten hag. the danish midfielder suffered an ankle injury in the fa cup win over reading last saturday and was later seen leaving old trafford on crutches. the club say investigations into the problem are continuing, but initial assessments indicate he's likely to be unavailable until late april or early may. some breaking news from northern ireland in the last hour. kenny shiels is set to leave his role as

the manager of the women's team. he took over in may 2019 and led them took over in may 2019 and led them to the euros last summer, their first ever tournament, where they went out at the group stage after losing all their games. kenny shiels was unable to secure qualification for the world cup this year, as well. warren gatland has named his welsh side to face ireland at a sold out principality stadium in the opening round of the six nations on saturday. leigh halfpenny will return and make a first wales start for 19 months after a serious knee injury and joe hawkins makes his six nations debut at inside centre. gatland has decided he'll partner the nation's most—capped men's international back george north in the midfield. alun wynjones starts, while dann biggar is back at fly—half after missing the autumn internationals. he has been one of the top defensive fullbacks in world rugby now for a number of years. so much so that i have seen new zealand teams take out clips

of him defensively and positionally and use that as part of their review process as well, so it is good to see him back. he has been training well and we have two experienced players in that position that are going to compete pretty hard. i'm just looking forward to seeing them get out on the field. and leicestershire have signed former india cricket captain ajinkya rahane for the final four months of the 2023 season. the 34—year—old batter will be available after indian premier league duty with chennai super kings for eight county championship matches and the entire one—day cup. that's all the sport for now. we will have more for you in one hour. thanks forjoining us. more now on our top story this afternoon — the prediction by the international monetary fund that the uk economy will shrink by 0.6% this year.

that's worse than any other major advanced nation. we can discuss this with pat mcfadden. your thoughts on the prediction?— mcfadden. your thoughts on the rediction? ., ., ., prediction? one thing for a forecast which shows — prediction? one thing for a forecast which shows the _ prediction? one thing for a forecast which shows the british _ prediction? one thing for a forecast which shows the british economy i which shows the british economy moving in line with its peers but the really alarming thing about this forecast is it is an upgrade in growth forecast for much of the rest of the developed world but a downgrade for the uk economy and when you are moving in the opposite direction of similar countries that should ring alarm bells about the stewardship of the economy, and it really matters because these growth figures are notjust abstract numbers, they have a direct effect on peoples incomes and their ability to pay their bills and that matters

when the cost of living crisis is biting so deeply. the government oints out biting so deeply. the government points out that _ biting so deeply. the government points out that forecast _ biting so deeply. the government points out that forecast have - biting so deeply. the government| points out that forecast have been wrong in the past, even in the last couple of years they have been wrong, and the uk could just as easily outperform everything the imf has suggested. easily outperform everything the imf has suggested-— has suggested. ministers may say that but the _ has suggested. ministers may say that but the economic _ has suggested. ministers may say that but the economic picture - has suggested. ministers may say that but the economic picture is i has suggested. ministers may say i that but the economic picture is not just a made up of forecasts, what the ministers cannot escape is the fact that we are the only g7 country not to recover our position before covid, that is a fat, so the forecast comes on top of a weak position in recent years and it all points to, why is the uk doing relatively worse than other developed economies? —— that is a fact. this poor performance relative to our peers is making the cost of living crisis bike more deeply because it translates into stagnating incomes and a greater

difficulty for our constituents around the country to pay their bills. is around the country to pay their bills. , ., , ,., ., bills. is the relatively poor performance _ bills. is the relatively poor performance as _ bills. is the relatively poor performance as a - bills. is the relatively poor performance as a result i bills. is the relatively poor performance as a result of bills. is the relatively poor- performance as a result of brexit? it is a factor, every business that it is a factor, every business that i speak to talks of workforce problems and the ongoing difficulties over the northern ireland protocol have created a lot of ill feeling and the idea that the british government would set aside an agreement that it reached a couple of years ago, so i think brexit is part of this story but it is not the only part of the story. we have been overexposed to the energy price crisis because we have got rid of our gas storage and we have under insulated homes and there are a number of factors that have left us overexposed but what really matters is whether there is a plan to get out of this and i'm afraid when you look at the speech the chancellor made last friday, set against the pitcher that the imf has painted today, you have to conclude that the government has not got a

plan to get out of this and ijust managing decline now after 13 years in office. , ., ., ., in office. only a matter of weeks now away from _ in office. only a matter of weeks now away from the _ in office. only a matter of weeks now away from the budget - in office. only a matter of weeks now away from the budget in i in office. only a matter of weeks - now away from the budget in march, so if you were in number 11, what would you be doing, what policies would you be doing, what policies would you be putting in place to alleviate some of the things you are talking about? the alleviate some of the things you are talking about?— talking about? the immediate task for the government _ talking about? the immediate task for the government is _ talking about? the immediate task for the government is to _ talking about? the immediate task for the government is to help - talking about? the immediate task i for the government is to help people through the cost of living crisis so we have produced a proposal to keep the energy price cap where it is not increase it by another £500 a year which is the government proposal, in march, but beyond the immediate cost of living crisis, what the country really needs is a proper long term plan for growth which will deal with the green transition which is going to be a major part of what the country has to do, look at what is happening in the us with the inflation reduction act and then ask if there is a proportionate british effort and i do not think anyone can

conclude there is. we have got to do with the workforce issues which means a greater effort to train more out of —— train more of our own workers and get more people to come back who left the workforce after covid and make it easierfor back who left the workforce after covid and make it easier for parents with young children to enter the workforce and we need to make sure that businesses can get the labour they require if we are going to see they require if we are going to see the economic growth that we need it so we need a long—term plan for all of that and there's no sign of that from this government. [30 of that and there's no sign of that from this government.— of that and there's no sign of that from this government. do you think more people _ from this government. do you think more people would _ from this government. do you think more people would be _ from this government. do you think more people would be coming - from this government. do you think more people would be coming back| more people would be coming back into the workforce if the papers better? we have got more strikes next week and we know the strikes the country has been living through, so would you exceed to their pay demands and say, yes, you deserve 10% which they are asking for? idate 10% which they are asking for? we would 10% which they are asking for? , would negotiate this and sit around the table and i think the government should do this because these strikes are disruptive. i don't think the

labour shortages are just about pay, let me give you an example, we have a policy fully costed to provide a breakfast club in every primary school so that young parents can get back to work more easily. without that kind of policy, what you have is a lot of people dropping out of the labour market after they have children and at the other end of the spectrum we have people over 50 who have left the labour market since covid we think there should be proper support to help at least a proportion of those people back into work. we have got to address these workforce issues and some of the holes in the brexit deal as well as the green transition and put this together in a proper long—term plan for growth for the economy and that is missing right now and it is necessary if we want to get away from the kind of poor forecast that the imf has published today. do you think nhs workers, _ the imf has published today. do you think nhs workers, firefighters, - think nhs workers, firefighters, they deserve more money? these

thins i they deserve more money? these things i got _ they deserve more money? these things i got to _ they deserve more money? these things i got to be _ they deserve more money? these things i got to be negotiated - they deserve more money? line”? things i got to be negotiated around the table and that is what the government should be doing, and that is what we would be doing if we were in government and when it comes to this, i would say look at the record when we were in power, we went through 13 years where we left the nhs in a much better condition than when we took over and we never had the kind of national nhs strikes that you are seeing right now. flat that you are seeing right now. pat mcfadden, shadow chief secretary to the treasury, thanks forjoining us. we have some business news, more business news. tesco has bought paperchase, hours after the stationary brand it fell into administration — but the supermarket chain isn't taking on any of its 106 stores or 800 staff. paperchase has been hit by falling

sales and rising costs. its stores are still trading normally, for now — but customers are being advised to use gift cards as soon as possible. our business correspondent, emma simpson, told me more about the move by the supermarket chain. paper chase is a clear brand and it was a lot of interest in it but tesco wanted the brand and it did not want the stores and staff so i think the tesco it was saying, it is a much loved brand and they were very proud to have the brand and clearly this would work in their larger stores, and tesco has fewer electricals and technology sales in its stores and is moving into more clothing and home brands and of course they will see this as complimentary and it could work very well but we have got to wait and see what their plans are as two white paper chase went under, well, —— and as to why paper chase went under, it went into administration and it has had a challenging few years. four years ago it did a form of insolvency proceedings to cut costs and save money and lower rents,

cutting stores and jobs and then you may remember injanuary 2021, in the teeth of the pandemic, it went into administration then, and was rescued, so a total collapse in sales over the crucial christmas trading, but it was rescued and another private owner comes in and thenit another private owner comes in and then it was bought again last august and it has fallen over at less than six months later. that is a combination of falling sales and rising costs and a lot of the stores were in train stations but they have been fewer commuters and reduced footfall and that has exacerbated things so these latest owners hoisted the for sale signs and no viable owners came through and here we are today, it went under. tesco has bought the brand but it leaves the future of the stores, about 106, and the workers, under real threat, of course. ~ ,,., ,

and the workers, under real threat, of course. ~ , , ., , and the workers, under real threat, ofcourse. ~ , ., , ., and the workers, under real threat, ofcourse. , ., ., of course. absolutely. that is a lot of course. absolutely. that is a lot of people- — of course. absolutely. that is a lot of people. tesco _ of course. absolutely. that is a lot of people. tesco announcing - of course. absolutely. that is a lot of people. tesco announcing morej of people. tesco announcing more changes today more broadly? yes. changes today more broadly? yes, the have changes today more broadly? yes, they have announced _ changes today more broadly? 123 they have announced some big changes today more broadly? 12: they have announced some big changes in the way that it runs its stores. 1750 team manager, lead manager roles, going across their larger stores, and it says it is creating 1800 new shift leader stores so this is at a lower tier and lower pay but they say these people will have the responsibility of day—to—day operations in the stores, leaving the higher managers to get on with more managerial tasks involving colleagues. what they are saying is, these people who are doing to manager roles, you can apply for these new roles, we will keep you at these new roles, we will keep you at the same pay which will be protected for two years or you can take redundancy, so at face value the 1750 roles are at risk. i also

closing the remaining counters and hot dailies that they have and they have already closed most of them and they will close the remaining ones and that is not going to involve any job losses there because those will go elsewhere in stores. the other jobs, 350 jobs at risk in various parts of the business, so pharmacies are closing, they are reducing the hours at some post offices and some jobs are going at head office and they are closing a maintenance centre in milton keynes which takes calls and organises the upkeep of stores, so you have more than 2000 roles at risk in the round at the biggest british retailer as it looks to reshape its business and of course all the big supermarkets have been making big changes. they have got to cut costs and save money and fend off the pesky discounters who are stealing shoppers.—

fend off the pesky discounters who are stealing shoppers. emma simpson there. thousands of ambulance workers in england are to go on strike again next week in a long—running dispute over pay and staffing. our health editor, hugh pym has the latest. no sign of a resolution or any sign of pay talks taking place and one of the health unions, unison, now setting a new strike date of friday 10th february for ambulance staff in some parts of england, adding to walk—outs, strikes elsewhere in the nhs earlier in the week. they will take place every day apart from wednesday. and, of course, the big one which nhs leaders are really quite worried about will be walk—outs by ambulance staff and nurses on the same day for the first time, that will be on monday in england and wales. the government position covering england is that there is no money for paying more than the existing pay award for this financial year,

they think adding to what's already there would be unaffordable and not fair. but they've urged unions to engage with the pay review body process for the next financial year beginning in april. some unions said they will not take part in this and it emerged today that the government has not submitted its own evidence to the pay review body process. the chair of that body, giving evidence at a select committee of the commons this morning, said there was a deadline of the 11th of january and ministers had missed that, and she still hadn't had evidence but was expected to come up with a recommendation in april. the chair of that commons select committee, a conservative mp, steve brine, said he thought this was astonishing and he was going to ask ministers what was going on. so, quite a lot of confusion over the process, it has to be said, and no obvious way at this stage of a way out of this pay dispute in the nhs. our health editor, hugh pym. a man who drove a jcb digger

into the front of a house in caerphilly has been given a 16—month suspended prison sentence. 56—year—old mark holmes from penybryn, had been drinking when he caused £28,000 worth of damage to a house in blackwood and "minor injuries" to the owner. earlier i spoke to our wales correspondent, tomos morgan for more the court heard there had been disagreements within the family and he had been drinking and that morning he had taken his son'sjcb digger down to the home of his brother was my ex partner, her house, and you can see that he then begins ramming the house and he rams the cars in the driveway and he breaks down a wall and he flips one of the cars in this fit of rage. as paula brown is trying to get him to stop, you can see. she sustained minor injuries at one point. at the end of this, he then drives down to

the local police station and admits to what he has done, that he had been drinking quite a bit and said he had a lot on his mind, family disagreement, but in the court had thejudge said that disagreement, but in the court had the judge said that was not an excuse for what he had done and he has been sentenced to 16 months suspended for two years and disqualified from driving for three years as well as given a restraining orderfor ten years. ilil" years as well as given a restraining order for ten years.— order for ten years. our wales correspondence _ order for ten years. our wales correspondence there. - the princess of wales has launched a new campaign to raise awareness of the importance of the first five years of a child's life. the project has been described by palace sources as the princess's "life's work" and draws attention to how babies and children develop in response to early experiences. here's our royal correspondent, daniela relph, and a warning her piece does contain some flash photography. kirkgate market in leeds, where the princess of wales has come to launch this new campaign.

the focus is on greater awareness of the first five years of our lives and how they shape the adults we become. last night, the princess laid out her vision for the campaign and why it matters to her so much. it is essential to not only understand the unique importance of our earliest years but to know what we can all do to help raise future generations of happy, healthy adults. shaping us is a long term campaign, and we're starting by highlighting how we develop during early childhood and why these years matter so much. we can't wait to meet you. the launch comes with a film, birth to five years old in 90 seconds, designed to show how a child develops and how communication and connection is vital. our children, their brains develop between pregnancy and the age of five,

quicker and more crucial than at any other point in their life. and i think it's something that maybe i wasn't aware of until i fully dug deep into this. advisers to the princess of wales have stressed that this campaign isn't about politics or policy, but about raising public awareness. it comes at a challenging time for some young families where financial stresses dominate. but the princess of wales believes she can make a difference in an area that's been described as her life's work. daniela relph, bbc news, leeds. now it's time for a look at the weather with stav danaos. hello. there was a bit of a grey start across the south of the country, but skies have brightened up and it looks like it's going to stay bright for much of england and wales through this afternoon. bar the odd shower. but it will be windy across the north, certainly across scotland, with winds picking up to reach gale force and there'll be lots of showers

continuing as well. the reason why — this area of low pressure will be edging closer to the north of the uk, which will bring these gales certainly to scotland and frequent showers, some of them heavy with some thunder in places, some snow on the hills. but apart from the odd shower towards west wales, western england, much of england and wales will be dry with plenty of sunshine. top temperatures, 12 degrees in the south, cooler further north. now, as you move through this evening to the first part of the night, this area of low pressure will bring a spell of even severe gales to the far north of scotland, gusts up to 80 miles an hour, perhaps for orkney, even as far north as shetland. so we'll likely see some disruption here from these gales. there'll be frequent showers or longer spells of rain across the northern half of the country. so quite a stormy night to come across the north versus a lot quieter in the south, closer to an area of high pressure which will be sitting to the south west of the uk. now, that deep low continues to pull out into the norwegian sea on wednesday, taking the strong winds with it. but it's going to be quite a stormy start to wednesday across the north east of scotland. the winds gradually easing down through the day

with sunshine appearing as well. but we'll have this weather front bringing some rain to northern ireland, southern scotland, northern england down into the midlands, into eastern england at times. to the south of it is generally dry, one or two showers, some sunny spells and again, mild double figures in the south, a bit cooler in the north. on thursday, another weather front passes across the north of the country that will bring outbreaks of rain mainly to scotland. some it will be quite heavy in the north and the west, perhaps a little bit of brightness to higher ground for eastern scotland. but for northern ireland, much of england and wales there'll be variable amounts of cloud, some spells of sunshine. we'll all notice though it's going to feel very mild for the time of year. temperatures in double figures thanks to these southwesterly winds. weather fronts flirt with the far north of the uk as we move through friday, again, another very mild day to come, and then signs of something a bit colder starting to spread down from the northwest as you move through the weekend. so friday, another rather benign day.

lots of cloud around, but very mild things start to turn a bit colder, though, as we head through saturday and sunday.

this is bbc news. the headlines. downing street warns there'll be significant disruption tomorrow as teachers and university workers, civil servants, train and bus drivers all go on strike. police chiefs apologise and promise �*cultural change' following profound failures — five years after a report into the treatment of the families of the hillsborough disaster. we are now into 2023, how long does it take to read a report and come out with the findings and what you think should happen? the uk will perform worse than any other major economy next year, according to the international monetary fund. paperchase goes into administration — tesco takes over the brand, but announces over 2000 supermarketjobs are at risk. and united in music,

this year's slogan as, the eurovision song contest arrives in liverpool.