this is bbc news — these are the latest headlines in the uk and around the world. the oil giant shell reports record annual profits of 32 billion pounds— the highest in its 115—year history. the bank of england is expected to announce that it will raise interest rates for a tenth consecutive time. allegations of war crimes in ukraine — a former russian army officer tellsthe bbc he saw russian soldiers shooting prisoners of war. the colonel shot the prisoner in the arm and in the right leg. under the knee and hit the bone. i went to the commanders and said the ukrainian needs to go to hospital, he will be dead by morning from blood loss.

british gas suspends its force—fitting of prepament meters following a report that it was imposing them on vulnerable customers. its chief executive, chris 0'shea has apologised. there chris 0'shea has apologised. is nothing that i can 5 can there is nothing that i can say that can express the horror i had when i heard this, when i saw this. it is completely unacceptable, that language is completely unacceptable. the largest—ever outbreak of bird flu is now infecting mammals in the uk. hello and welcome if you're watching in the uk or around the world. europe's biggest energy firm, shell, has reported record annual profits of nearly $40 billion in 2022, more than double what it made

in the previous year. the profits are the biggest in the firm's history — boosted by higher energy prices since the start of the ukraine war. shell has already said it will pay tax in the uk for the first time since 2017 — as a result of the government's windfall tax. let's take a closer look at the figures shell released today. it said its adjusted earnings had more than doubled to $39.9 billion. the company said it expected to pay an additional $2.3 billion in tax on its 2022 earnings as a result of the eu's windfall tax, and the uk's energy profits levy. it returned $26 billion to shareholders in 2022, through dividends and share buy—backs. it plans to spend a further $4 billion on buying back its own shares in the next three months. buying back shares is a way of increasing their value in the market.

but the company invested only $3.5 billion on renewables and low carbon technologies in the last year. our business editor simonjack told me more. no one has corrected me on this yet, i think it's the highest profit of any uk headquartered company in history, and in a way not that surprising when we see what oil and gas prices have done over the last year. they were already rising at the end of last year as the world emerge from covid and demand picked up, and then went rocketing when russia invaded ukraine, and russian oil and gas supplies were shot off or shunned by other people putting prices up, this is what you are seeing is a result. they are paying their shareholders £5 billion. they paid them £5 billion this year, they paid them £5 billion this year, they paid them £5 billion this year, they paid them another £5 billion last year. and of course, the numbers of this size will understandably provoke some sort of outrage and call for things like bringing the windfall tax question into it. yes.

windfall tax question into it. yes, because there _ windfall tax question into it. yes, because there has _ windfall tax question into it. yes, because there has been - windfall tax question into it. yes, because there has been criticism that the taxes imposed by the government last year on gas and oil giants didn't go nearly far enough according to many people. and what is shell saying about this? does it think that it may need to pay more taxes here in the uk? does it understand that argument? i think they understand _ understand that argument? i think they understand that _ understand that argument? i think they understand that there - understand that argument? i think they understand that there is - understand that argument? i think they understand that there is that| they understand that there is that outrage at the sort of numbers they are making. but it isn't straightforward to taxing a multinational company and getting them to pay uk tax. 95% of the money that shell makes isn't made in the uk, it is made and taxed around the world. so only 5% of their profits are actually made here. there is a 75% tax on those profits. they already pay 40% income tax, then there was a 25% windfall increased to a 75% windfall, so they are paying 75% now. that's not the highest in the world, norway and nigeria a bit higher, but one of the

highest tax rates anywhere in the world so it isn't straightforward designing attacks to tax global profits like this.— profits like this. with people lookinu profits like this. with people looking towards _ profits like this. with people looking towards april, - profits like this. with people looking towards april, the i profits like this. with people - looking towards april, the energy price cap is set to change, people set to pay more for their energy, you can see how this is a conversation the government is going to have to have with shell. you conversation the government is going to have to have with shell.— to have to have with shell. you had ed miliband, _ to have to have with shell. you had ed miliband, the — to have to have with shell. you had ed miliband, the shadow— to have to have with shell. you had ed miliband, the shadow business i to have to have with shell. you had i ed miliband, the shadow business and environment secretary this morning saying they need to pay more tax but as i was saying it isn't that straightforward. they are of course also allowed, the other reason they pay quite a lot no low amount of tax, they can offset the decommissioning costs for old oil rigs, said investment in new oil and gas projects in the uk against those profits. i expect them to say they have paid in the tens of millions of pounds in tax in 2022 and i expect them to say, and they are on a media call right now, they will pay hundreds of millions of pounds in 2023. that won't be enough for some people think they should pay more people think they should pay more people will notice they pay more to

their shareholders in terms of dividends and share buy—backs than they have spent in investing in renewables. that will be the charge, they haven't spent enough on that. simon jack. as we've been hearing, it comes at a time when households are feeling their budgets squeezed by the higher cost of energy and fuel. lisa nandy is the shadow levelling up secretary in the uk — she told our business correspondent ben boulos that the government needed to make energy companies pay a higher windfall tax. what is completely unconscionable is that the government is still refusing to close loopholes in the windfall tax that will allow these big energy companies to keep more of their profits, while people across every part of our country are struggling to heat their homes. we think they should close those loopholes. that could raise £13 billion over the next year. and they should use that to help households who are going to face huge hikes in their energy bills in april when the energy price cap is increased. we just can't go on like this. you say close the loopholes, but as things stand,

with the basic tax that energy companies pay for what they extract from the north sea, the profits they're making from that in the uk, it's now gone up to 75%. it will stay at 75%, including the extra windfall tax element until 2028. that is the government taking action and taking some of those profits to help pay for public services, isn't it? look, we welcomed the fact that the government finally conceded the principle of a windfall tax last year. but let's not forget, they had to be dragged kicking and screaming to do it at a time when there were stories emerging from every part of this country about people who simply couldn't afford their heating. we believe that when companies are making record profits and families can't heat their homes, we should close those loopholes. they'll still make profits, but we should close the investment allowance loophole that allows them to get tax breaks for investing in fossil fuels. we should backdate the windfall tax to when the government ought to have done it, not when they actually did it. and by doing so, we could get real help to families who are struggling now. would you put the windfall tax up even higher?

we believe it should be brought into line with countries like norway. and in fact, if you look at some of the big bosses of the energy companies, whether it's shell or bp, there are clear signals coming from the industry that they understand that at a time of huge pain for a lot of people in this country, the current system is unsustainable. when even they are saying tax us more, it is completely unconscionable that the government is refusing to do so. lisa nandy. ispoke lisa nandy. i spoke to the energy industry economist earlier and asked her to put shell's profits into context. , , ., �* ., context. the numbers don't come as a surrise, context. the numbers don't come as a surprise. they — context. the numbers don't come as a surprise, they given _ context. the numbers don't come as a surprise, they given what _ context. the numbers don't come as a surprise, they given what we - context. the numbers don't come as a surprise, they given what we went - surprise, they given what we went through last year, because we saw a rapid escalation in oil prices, but even more so of gas prices following russia's invasion in price sustained until at least august, after that the prices started to ease but they remained elevated compared to previous years and we saw record

prices last year, particularly natural gas, and shell in particular has a very lucrative liquefied natural gas business and that has driven the profits. but the irony is that only a few years ago many people were writing off the oil companies saying the oil industry is over, but we are seeing today record prices driven by record profits, driven by higher prices because of the crisis. ., ~' , . , the crisis. one of the key arguments the crisis. one of the key arguments the government _ the crisis. one of the key arguments the government has _ the crisis. one of the key arguments the government has made _ the crisis. one of the key arguments the government has made for- the crisis. one of the key arguments the government has made for not i the government has made for not imposing bigger taxes, the government has made for not imposing biggertaxes, including imposing bigger taxes, including windfall taxes, imposing biggertaxes, including windfall taxes, on the gas and oil giants, is that it might discourage them from investing, and that investment includes investment in renewable energies and technologies. we know that shell has paid more to its shareholders than it has spent on investment in renewables. so what do you make of that argument, do you think the government will be under pressure now to actually impose a much bigger windfall tax on companies like shell? much bigger windfall tax on comanies like shell? ~ . ., , companies like shell? windfall taxes are re companies like shell? windfall taxes are pretty controversial— companies like shell? windfall taxes are pretty controversial because - companies like shell? windfall taxes are pretty controversial because we | are pretty controversial because we already saw such tax is implemented

last year, and the oil industry is already paying higher taxes than other sectors in the uk and also in many other producing countries. however, we also have to understand the purpose of taxes. taxes are not only imposed to capture all the profits companies make, because we need to keep some profits for the companies so that they can sustain their businesses, and also more importantly to invest, so windfall taxes usually come with some incentives to invest in certain areas. so for example in the uk you have higher windfall taxes than we saw in previous years, but that additional levy comes with an incentive for investments, so if the company spends £i on investing in oil and gas exploration, they can claim around 90p of that pound spent. so there is this kind of carrot and stick it whereby you want to capture more profits, or more revenues from the profits made by the oil and gas companies, but you also want to direct investment in a

way that you find it suitable and beneficial for the country. then there is more oil and gas production and more green energy investment. fix, and more green energy investment. a word on the importance of shell for uk pensions, if you would, because we have talked a lot today about how interest rates might affect people, but the flip side of that is people who are trying to save, people who have money invested in pensions, which have shares with the likes of shell. ~ , ,., y which have shares with the likes of shell. ~ , , ., ., �*, which have shares with the likes of shell. n, , ., ., �*, , shell. absolutely and that's why it isn't as simple _ shell. absolutely and that's why it isn't as simple as _ shell. absolutely and that's why it isn't as simple as black— shell. absolutely and that's why it isn't as simple as black and - shell. absolutely and that's why it j isn't as simple as black and white, would you have shareholders getting high dividends from shell and the pension funds are also shareholders in these companies, so in a sense the profits of the oil companies and their higher share prices will also benefit a certain part of the population without them realising it directly. the bank of england is expected to raise interest rates again today — for the tenth time in a row. interest rates — the cost of borrowing money — currently stand at 3.5%. they're expected to go

up to 4% later today. that means loans like car finance or credit card borrowing are likely to get more expensive for consumers in britain. and it means mortgage payments will cost more. but it should also mean better returns for british savers. the bank of england is trying to slow down inflation. that is the rate at which prices increase. prices in the uk are rising at about 10.5% per year. ben boulos reports on what this could mean for people. recently married, and a homeowner, alex, who's 26, and her husband, were hoping to have a baby. but they've had to shelve those plans. because of the mortgage going up by £300, what i was thinking of putting aside for the child, it would eat up most of the outgoings that i would have had for the child, and we will have to wait until we get a better mortgage deal. higher interest rates don't only affect home owners

looking to remortgage, and first—time buyers. people who rent are likely to feel the impact as well. that's because many landlords have a mortgage, and if their monthly payments go up, they may well pass that on to their tenants through higher rents. when there's a big increase in costs, such as an increase in interest rates would give, we have no choice. and if that happens, and you didn't put rents up for your tenants, what happens? we'd effectively be losing money. by the end of this year, the bank of england estimates that four million homeowners in the uk with a mortgage, will see their payments go up from an average of £750 a month, to an average of £1,000 a month, with some facing even steeper rises. but there is a glimmer of hope for first—time buyers who are currently renting. rents have been rising at quite a high rate, so the mortgage rates available now are quite comparable with the amount you'll be paying on rent.

so i actually think that if you're a first—time buyer, 2023 could be a good year to buy. that's little comfort, though, for those renewing a mortgage, like stu in leeds. initially offered a deal at £300 a month more, he got that down. but knowing when to lock in a rate is hard. it's almost like tossing a coin, it really is. i've still got £200 a month to find on top of my utilities bills doubling, and on top of the price of my food shop going through the roof, and the price of petrol and everything else that everybody's having a deal with. so, to sit and say, well, yeah, an extra 200 quid is a good result, is ridiculous. but i suppose you've got to try and find the positives where you can. but that can feel like slim pickings when trying to meet the increasing costs of keeping a roof over your head.

ben boulos with that report. a former russian army officer has told the bbc he witnessed russian soldiers committing war crimes in ukraine. konstantin yefremov said ukrainian prisoners of war were humiliated, beaten and shot. mr yefremov left the russian army in august last year and fled abroad. he spoke to the bbc�*s russia editor steve rosenberg. this is the war in ukraine, the official russian version of it. packaged, promoted, propagandised by moscow. fearless russian soldiers fighting the good fight, defending the motherland. but konstantin yefremov was there, and the reality, he says, is very different. konstantin was a senior lieutenant in the russian army, but he's fled russia. and he's agreed to tell me about crimes he says he saw russian soldiers committing in ukraine. starting here.

this is one of konstantin�*s first photos from ukraine, an airbase seized by russian troops in melitopol. translation: i saw looting there. soldiers and officers grabbed everything they could. they climbed all over the planes, and went through all the buildings. 0ne soldier took away a lawnmower. he said proudly, "i'll take this home and cut the grass next to our barracks." buckets, axes, bicycles — they bunged it all in trucks. konstantin says that on the day russia invaded ukraine, he tried to quit the army. he was warned he'd face up to ten years in prison for desertion. in occupied ukraine, he was sent to guard this artillery unit. and then, a facility where he says he witnessed ukrainian prisoners of war being tortured.

translation: the ukrainian had a blindfold on. _ the colonel put a pistol to the prisoner's forehead and said, "i'm going to count to three, and then shoot you in the head." he counted and then fired just to the side of his head, on both sides. the colonel started shouting at him. i said, "comrade colonel, he can't hear you. "you've deafened him." the interrogations, this torture, continued for about a week. every day, at night, sometimes twice a day. the interrogations became increasingly violent, claims konstantin. translation: during another interrogation the colonel shot| the prisoner in the arm and in the right leg, under the knee, and hit the bone. i went to the commanders and said, "the ukrainian

"needs to go to hospital. "he'll be dead by morning from blood loss." we dressed him up in a russian uniform and took him to hospital. we told him, "don't say you're a ukrainian prisoner of war, "because either the doctors will refuse to treat you, "or the injured russian soldiers will hear you and shoot you." the bbc has verified documents, photographs and videos provided by konstantin, confirming his identity and his movements. 0nce he'd returned to russia, back on base, he was accused of a serious breach of discipline for refusing to go back to ukraine. he was dismissed from the army. a russian human rights group has helped him leave the country. translation: | apologise i to the whole ukrainian nation for coming to their home as an uninvited guest with a weapon in my hands.

i don't even have a moral right to ask forforgiveness from the ukrainians. i can't forgive myself. so i can't expect them to forgive me. konstantin says that senior officers called him a traitor for being anti—war. but he points out that he gave an oath to protect his country, not to attack another. steve rosenberg, bbc news, moscow. british gas has suspended the forced installation of pre—payment meters because of reports that debt collectors it employed forced their way into the homes of vulnerable customers to fit them. some of those customers were disabled, or single parents. the regulator 0fgem has launched an investigation. aru na iyengar reports. hello? british gas, your gas supplier. we're here with a court warrant.

can you please open the door? otherwise we have a locksmith who will to open it for you. knocking this is the exciting bit. i love this bit. paul morgan—bentley, a times newspaper reporter, says he has witnessed instances of energy companies using strong—arm tactics when customers fall into debt. there's a company that the major energy firms, including british gas and others, use to do this very aggressive debt collection. they're called arvato. and when i found out about this, i applied to work there undercover. on some of the coldest days in recent weeks, i was in teams of either four orfive men, breaking into families' homes and force fitting pay—as—you—go meters for british gas. having a meter like this means you pay up front. if you can't top it up, there's no heating. the energy firms need a court warrant. they're supposed to check if the customer is vulnerable. this is the home of a single dad

with three children. they weren't in when the team entered the property. in the kitchen there was a child's ventolin asthma inhaler and eczema cream. the person living there, if they couldn't afford to top up, they'd go off supply. and we walked in and the radiators were hot. and we left and the radiators were cold. this agent offered tips on judging a customer's vulnerability. if theyjust say, "oh, - i'm a single mum and i've got three kids", that'sl not a vulnerability. it is a vulnerability, but i'm a bit old school, a bit hard—nosed. i the reporter worked in teams enforcing warrants for british gas, which included the homes of a 77—year—old man, and a mother aged 25 with four children. how old are your children? my youngest is three—weeks—old. this woman said her bills had jumped from 5a to £364 a month. the debt agent in this case decided to walk away without fitting a prepayment meter, but said other agents might

act differently. it's a very unusual situation at the moment. and this kind of very aggressive debt collection just feels very, very unfair. 0fgem has now confirmed it's investigating, telling the bbc: there is nothing that i can say that can express the horror and so as soon as we heard this we suspended arvato. they are not doing any work for us right now. we then commissioned an independent report so we can get to the bottom of what's going on and therefore when we get to the bottom we'll therefore then fix it. where we've got it wrong,

we will make it right. we also yesterday morning announced that we have suspended any installation of pre—payment meters underwater until at least any installation of pre—payment meters under warrant. households in england and wales will see the largest increase to their water bills for almost 20 years from april. industry body — water uk — said bills could rise to an average £448 a year. consumer groups warned the rise could prove the tipping point for customers already struggling to pay. water uk says that the increase is down to higher energy costs, and is beneath the rate of inflation. the water industry has absorbed as much of that inflation as possible, which is why the bill increase is lower than inflation. but nevertheless, because the water industry uses about 2% of the nation's electricity, they've been hit particularly hard by that. so that's one factor. the second factor is investment. and we are currently investing more than at any other point in history, more than any other european nation in our sewage system, in the environment and in our drinking water.

and it's the bills that fund that. and we've got a further 70 billion of investment coming down the track in new reservoirs, and to clean up overflows into rivers. the united states has signed a deal allowing large numbers of its troops to return to the philippines for the first time in three decades. the deal gives the us access to an additional four military bases, meaning it can operate in nine in total. neither country has said exactly where the new locations would be although washington has requested access to bases on the northern land mass of luzon, the closest part of the philippines to taiwan, and on the island of palawan, facing the disputed spratly islands in the south china sea. both countries are seeking to counter china's growing military influence in southeast asia. here's the us secretary of defence, announcing the deal. sorry, we don't have that clip. apologies for that. let's continue

with this story, though. the us has agreed to almost double its number of military bases in the philippines. as we have just been explaining. the announcement was made by the american defence secretary lloyd austin, who's visiting manila. we can bring you that sot in a second, that clip, in a second. the deal, which was struck with the new government of president marcos, will see american forces permanently based at nine sites in the philippines. america's commitment to the defence of the philippines is ironclad. we discussed expanding the enhanced defence cooperation agreement, which allows our forces to operate together more efficiently from key sites across the philippines. and we're pleased to announce today that president marcos has approved four new edca locations. and that brings the total number

of edca sites to nine. lloyd austin. 0ur reporter rupert wingfield—hayes is in manila — and he gave us this analysis. this behind me here is camp aguinaldo. it's the headquarters of the philippine armed forces, and this is where the us secretary of defence, lloyd austin, came today to announce this agreement. what does it give the us? well, it gives the american military, for the first time nearly in three decades, serious access to a large number of military bases across the philippines. nine bases in all but the most significant are in the north, facing the south china sea and facing taiwan. why is the philippines so significant? well, it's really about geographical location. if you look at the military alliances the us has in east asia, to the north you have korea and japan and in the south you have australia. but here in southeast asia, the philippines really sits in the most significant strategic position next to the south china sea, close to taiwan. and that's why the americans have

been pushing hard for this agreement to regain access for their troops. for the philippines, i think this agreement is an admission that they really can't handle the rise of china and china's territorial ambitions in the south china sea by themselves. manila has watched over the last decade as china has built these huge artificial islands and military bases very, very close to philippine territory, some inside the philippines' own exclusive economic zone, and they've been able to do nothing about it. so they hope that having the americans back here will make the chinese think twice about pushing further with the territorial expansion and control of the south china sea. so far, china's reaction has been relatively mute. it has essentially said this is the americans trying to trick the philippines into a trap and they're advising the philippines against doing anything.

translation: out of selfish interests- — translation: out of selfish interests | the us has continuously strengthened military deployment in the region, which exacerbates regional tensions and endangers regional peace and stability. countries should remain vigilant against this and avoid being used by the united states. so that suggests that beijing wants to keep good relations with manila and won't retaliate, at least for the moment. and for the marcos presidency here, well, the marcos government is really walking this very fine tightrope, trying to keep good relations with china because it's economically important, while getting closer to america militarily, because it really needs that support and cannot handle the situation alone. rupert wingfield—hayes. the current wave of bird flu in the uk is spilling over to mammals. more than 200 cases have already been recorded in animals like otters and foxes that are believed to have eaten infected birds. health officials say the risk of the virus jumping to humans is very low but they'll carry out more targeted testing and surveillance — both of animals and humans exposed to the virus. our environment and rural affairs correspondent, claire marshall, reports.

this is now, by far, the worst avian flu outbreak in global history. more than 200 million birds both wild and farmed have died or had to be cullled. a development that is worrying scientists now is the spill over into mammals. in the uk, the virus has been found in foxes. they are scavengers and can feed on birds. it's also been found in otters, the kind of animal also likely to encounter infected birds. so, what about the risk to humans? ok, so, this is the genetics laboratory. we were shown into the government lab in surrey at the heart of the uk's fight against avian flu. so, here we have some of the latest technology and innovation in order to speed our work and generate that really important data. so this virus is absolutely on the march. how much of that is a worry to you that this might be

be the next covid—i9? i think when you are working with this disease every day, you are acutely aware of the risk and what it can become, and without overplaying, this global spread is a concern. if we don't solve the problem across the globe, we are going to continue to have that risk. this view is held around the globe. we spoke to the head of science at the world of science at the world organisation for animal health. there is a risk for further transmission between species and we cannot underestimate the potential adaptation to humans. and that, in addition to the risk for impacting animal health, will have a very important impact on public health. the threat to humans is still said to be very low. 0verwhelmingly, the virus infects birds. in warwickshire, this lake is treasured by locals. many migrating waterfowl come here. last month there was an outbreak of avian flu and restrictions are still in place. sue runs a volunteer group.

we are out here every day and we can see what is going on and we can see the state of the birds that are in and we check all the areas around with the binoculars to make sure there is no dead animals in the corners, especially if the wind blows, it moves them up to a particular end. and we just keep an eye on it. the advice is clear. heed any warning signs and don't touch any dead or dying birds. claire marshall, bbc news. we can talk now to dr gregorio torres who we just saw in the report. he's head of the science department at the world organisation for animal health. thank you forjoining us today. you are making the point in the interview with claire that we can't underestimate the potential adaptation of this virus that causes avian flu to humans. tells more about your concerns.— avian flu to humans. tells more about your concerns. thanks very much. about your concerns. thanks very much- good _ about your concerns. thanks very

much. good morning. _ about your concerns. thanks very much. good morning. there - about your concerns. thanks very much. good morning. there is i about your concerns. thanks very - much. good morning. there is always a potential adaptation of the virus to other species. the virus remains a disease of birds. we know our scientists inform us that the virus can easily get adapted and can evolve to be adapted to other species. this is what we are seeing in mammals and potentially in humans as well. however, the disease as we know today, remains a bird disease, and it's important to remain vigilant, to share this information across the globe. all veterinary services and scientists are well updated and able to respond early enough to any potential risk to other animals of the public health. should be a lot of learnings on this already from the covid pandemic but the question is, are those learnings being put into practice?— being put into practice? totally and ou are being put into practice? totally and you are absolutely _ being put into practice? totally and you are absolutely right, _ being put into practice? totally and you are absolutely right, i - being put into practice? totally and you are absolutely right, i think - you are absolutely right, i think the pandemic shows us how important

it is to be interconnected, how important it is to share scientific data to the scientific community, how important it is for the risk manager to get access to these information, so a prompt and effective response can be implemented, to minimise any potential impact. covid shows us lessons on how important it is in shading this extremely important scientific information. sharing this. , , this. this virus has been passed from birds _ this. this virus has been passed from birds into _ this. this virus has been passed from birds into mammals, - this. this virus has been passed | from birds into mammals, there this. this virus has been passed - from birds into mammals, there have been no serious ill effects as far as we know? neil you're absolutely right, the risk remains low. the virus, right, the risk remains low. the virus. every _ right, the risk remains low. the virus, every now— right, the risk remains low. tue: virus, every now and right, the risk remains low. tte: virus, every now and again, right, the risk remains low. t'te: virus, every now and again, can spill over to other species. this is something we have seen in the past as well. the number of cases being

reported of non—bird species has increased, but according to the risk assessor, the risk of particularly the risk to public health remains low. ., , , ., , the risk to public health remains low. , ., , ., ., ., the risk to public health remains low. ,., ,., ., ., , low. people should be aware of this, but not overly _ low. people should be aware of this, but not overly concerned, _ low. people should be aware of this, but not overly concerned, is - low. people should be aware of this, but not overly concerned, is that - but not overly concerned, is that your advice at the moment? how would your advice at the moment? how would you put it? your advice at the moment? how would ou ut it? ., ., , ~' your advice at the moment? how would ou ut it? ., ., , ,, , you put it? totally. i think it is our responsibility _ you put it? totally. i think it is our responsibility to _ you put it? totally. i think it is our responsibility to inform . you put it? totally. i think it is| our responsibility to inform the general public, but it's our responsibility to transmit aggregate information, and to know the risks, important to avoid any exposure to the virus. if you go to the forest, for a walk, it's important to not handle any dead birds, but to notify the authorities so we can take the appropriate measure.

let's return to the results, and take a closer look at the figures shell released this morning. it said its adjusted earnings had more than doubled to $39.9 billion. this the company said it expected to pay an additional $2.3 billion in tax on its 2022 earnings as a result of the eu's windfall tax, and the uk's energy profits levy. it returned $26 billion to shareholders in 2022, through share buy—backs and dividends. it plans to spend a further $4 billion buying back its own stock in the next three months. buying back shares is a way of increasing their value in the market. but the company invested only 3.5 billion dollars on renewables and low carbon technologies in the last year. we're joined now by tessa khan, and environmental lawyer and director of uplift. thank you for your time today. we have in the uk government one of the reasons for not taxing the oil and

gas giants really heavily is that it might discourage them from investing in renewables. we are seeing in these figures that shell invested less on renewables and more on paying back shareholders. does this pose difficult questions for them? hill it certainly does. as you say... hill it certainly does. as you sa ., ., ., hill it certainly does. as you sa... ., ., ., ,, , say... the amount of spending shell is committing _ say... the amount of spending shell is committing to _ say... the amount of spending shell is committing to so-called - say. .. the amount of spending shell is committing to so-called low- is committing to so—called low carbon investment, which by the way, that figure you have cited also includes spending on gas —related marketing and trading, so that is notjust renewable energy, it is more than that. it is dwarfed by the amount they are spending on shareholder dividends and share buy—backs. i think it is very hard to maintain the lie that increasing tax on oil and gas companies making record profits will deter them from investing in renewables, because if they are not going to do it now, they are not going to do it now, they will never do it. fin they are not going to do it now, they will never do it.— they are not going to do it now, they will never do it. on the other

hand, businesses _ they will never do it. on the other hand, businesses have _ they will never do it. on the other hand, businesses have a - they will never do it. on the other hand, businesses have a duty - they will never do it. on the other hand, businesses have a duty to l they will never do it. on the other i hand, businesses have a duty to pay shareholders, a lot of uk pensions and pension sales we have a big tie—in to shell and how well it does. forsome tie—in to shell and how well it does. for some people, this will be good news. does. for some people, this will be good news-— good news. well, actually, uk ension good news. well, actually, uk pension funds _ good news. well, actually, uk pension funds only _ good news. well, actually, uk pension funds only have - good news. well, actually, uk pension funds only have a - good news. well, actually, uk pension funds only have a tinyj pension funds only have a tiny fraction of their shares invested in uk companies like shell and bp, for example, so it's not going to make a huge difference to certainly most pensioners in the uk. those people, the bigger concern is the soaring energy bills that has left millions of households across this country unable to heat their homes this winter. the only way to address that problem is, first of all, to move away from oil and gas in our energy system, which is what's causing the problem, but also make sure we are taxing properly these oil and gas firms who are making record profits and give some of that money back to families who are struggling. d0 and give some of that money back to families who are struggling.- families who are struggling. do you think it's inevitable _ families who are struggling. do you think it's inevitable now, _ families who are struggling. do you think it's inevitable now, given - families who are struggling. do you think it's inevitable now, given the| think it's inevitable now, given the cost of living crisis, given the pressure on the government to do it

can to help people whose incomes are relate press, that they will have to look at a bigger windfall tax? t look at a bigger windfall tax? i think the most obvious thing the government has to do is to close the loophole in the existing windfall tax. that is a loophole that means oil and gas companies get massive write—downs on their tax bills if they invest in more oil and gas in they invest in more oil and gas in the uk. the loophole announced it was effectively giving £ii the uk. the loophole announced it was effectively giving £11 billion to oil and gas companies. that £ii to oil and gas companies. that £11 billion isn't enough to make sure that every nhs worker and every teacher in the uk gets the inflation matching pay rise, so the uk government is looking for money, not exactly were defined. an mp has said she was "bombarded"

with death and rape threats after speaking out against controversial social media influencer andrew tate. alex davies—jones, the labour mp for pontypridd, said she received the abuse to her email and her office. andrew tate, who's amassed millions of followers for his divisive content, has been detained in romania as part of a human trafficking and rape investigation. he denies the allegations. some schools in the uk have made efforts to counter mr tate's influence. but why do so many boys follow him? we can speak now to michael conroy, founder of men at work, an organisation that trains professionals in how to have constructive dialogue with boys. you'd experience from going around schools, how difficult is it to get across a different viewpoint to let say what andrew tate talks about? it is work, it's not easy. it demands real commitment and a real kind of resolve on the part of schools and pastoral staff. i definitely want to bring parents and carers into the

picture as well, because so much is expected of schools that we do need to realise all adults have got a role to play in this. school certainly do have a role, because that got students for 30 hours a week for many years, so course that is a delivery mechanism for ongoing constructive dialogues, but one thing i would say is we need to see people like andrew tate as release symptoms of a much longer standing issue, which is ordinarily misogyny, the fact that women are routinely valued less than men, and that is one of the key foundations of our culture, unfortunately. people like tate will always pop up, it is a much bigger and deeper problem, so i would suggest the schools, if anyone is watching, youth workers, whoever it might be, it is essentially to think what do you want out of this interaction? we want to get and how do we want to get there? i presume

it is young men and boys who are resilient to these kind of demagogues, deradicalise is, whether it be about racism or misogyny, we are physically talking about misogynyjust now, how do we create an empathetic link with the lads so they will listen to what we are saying but also much more importantly that we get a chance to listen to what they say? they are experts in being 14—16, i'm not, todayis experts in being 14—16, i'm not, today is my 55th birthday, i am well past that, i don't know what it is like to be a digital native who is 13 or 1a, the boy, by creating space and being generally curious and allowing them to say things they've experienced or been told, then we can allow them to interrogate what they are saying themselves. what i would say is, it's almost easier to say what not to do, kind ofjumping really hard saying you must not talk

about this guy, you are bad if you watch this, there are really dangerous messages within it and we need to be frank about it, really. social media obviously allows influencers to amplify the message incredibly quickly, what is it about andrew tait, why do so many boys follow him? i(e andrew tait, why do so many boys follow him?— andrew tait, why do so many boys follow him? ke offers really simple solutions. the _ follow him? ke offers really simple solutions. the key _ follow him? ke offers really simple solutions. the key point, _ follow him? ke offers really simple solutions. the key point, the - follow him? ke offers really simple solutions. the key point, the foot l solutions. the key point, the foot in the door that andrew tate gets first is pornography, because boys, the de facto sex educator for all young people now, unfortunately, optically for young boys is born, and i don't mean top shelf thing from 30 years ago, this is anything goes. therefore if his messages and his algorithms are going out to 14-16 his algorithms are going out to 14—16 —year—old boys, they are already to some extent de—to women, they've learned to see them as the object, they are the subject, they are are that there is, so they learn that visual grammar, if you like,

and then are exposed to people like andrew tate, who has really got nothing deep at all about them, but he orchestrates a pre—existing lack of empathy towards women. and it makes sense because they've already seen it visually play out, but we take pawn out of the equation, andrew tate and his ilk disappear largely, but if we take the relationship material wealth, that is part of our culture, watch the telly, get rich quick, do the lottery, when a million quid in prizes, it's like a national obsession with becoming rich quick, therefore andrew tate looks like money. therefore, he's kind of meeting a cultural meet, but i think pornography needs to be part of any conversation, materialism also but we need to keep andrew tate in his little box, about the right size for him. he is saying nothing positive

to our boys. irate him. he is saying nothing positive to our boys-— to our boys. we are out of time, thank you _ to our boys. we are out of time, thank you very _ to our boys. we are out of time, thank you very much _ to our boys. we are out of time, thank you very much for - to our boys. we are out of time, thank you very much for talking | to our boys. we are out of time, i thank you very much for talking to us today. let's go to the democratic republic of congo, where tens of thousands of people have gathered for a rally with pope francis. this is a stadium in the capital kinshasa, where pope francis is meeting with young people. an estimated 80,000 people have turned up to see the pope who is on the penultimate day of the first stop of his two—nation african tour. the pontiff is expected to continue on the theme of forgiveness and reconciliation in the country where armed conflict has killed millions of people over the past decades, left almost six million people internally displaced and 26 million facing severe hunger in the coming months. i'm joined now by emery makumeno who's there in kinshasa. hello to you. what is the perception of what has been the reception for the pope? what the people there make of this visit and what he has had to

say? of this visit and what he has had to sa ? ~ , ., , ., say? well, the people here are “ubilant say? well, the people here are jubilant and — say? well, the people here are jubilant and the _ say? well, the people here are jubilant and the wait _ say? well, the people here are jubilant and the wait was - say? well, the people here are| jubilant and the wait was brady, say? well, the people here are - jubilant and the wait was brady, the pope was really expected in the country for the last five years, so everywhere the pope has been, even from the... the presidency on the first day he was welcomed by thousands of people along the road. yesterday the mass celebrated, brought about 1 yesterday the mass celebrated, brought about1 million people, and today at the stadium here in kinshasa, the pope was bringing a large crowd. people are very happy to see the pope and the message delivered was received by everyone. do you think the message of peace and reconciliation can make a difference to the region? well, when ou hear difference to the region? well, when you hear for— difference to the region? well, when you hear for example _ difference to the region? well, when you hear for example the _ difference to the region? well, when you hear for example the cardinal.

you hear for example the cardinal saying the message by the pope, at least the first thing they expect, the election is due this year can be organised. also the protracted war, the conflict that has tormented the country for the last three decades, with the handing, the landing of pope francis, at least some of the beginning of peace can start in the democratic republic of the congo. a growing number of iranian anti—government protesters are being shot in the face with rubber bullets or metal pellets during protests, often resulting in the loss of their eye. ophthalmologists across iran have called for the authorities to stop it. parham ghobadi has more, and a warning his report contains some graphic images of injuries. he said to me, "go or i shoot you in the eye." mariam was intentionally shot in the face by revolutionary guards while she was protesting in tehran last october, a method used more and more by iranian forces wanting

to put a stop to the protests. 0ne plainclothes agent appeared and began shooting at me with rubber bullets from about a metre and a half away. he shot me eight times. i fell down. the same officer pointed his shotgun back at me and shot me in the eye. bbc news identified dozens of victims all over iran who were intentionally targeted and lost their eye as a result. aydin is one of them. they pointed a laser at my head and fired birdshot from a 15—metre distance. six pellets ended up all over my body. these are the type of ammunition the revolutionary guards have been using to deter protesters. according to the united nations human rights guidance on less lethal weapons, kinetic impact projectiles such as rubber bullets should not be targeted at the head, face and neck, and metal pellets,

such as those fired from shotguns, should never be used. a doctor removed three at home, but i needed to go to a hospital for the rest, as one went through my eye and landed in my sinuses near my brain. but the hospital is not always a safe place for wounded protesters. someone had to flee from his hospital bed after being intentionally shot in the face by a rubber bullet. i had to escape from the hospital because two officers were after me. before going to the hospital, i didn't go home for 20 days and changed places every night. salman has now left the country. he said he was shot by a plainclothes officer who recognised him and identified him as a protester. as 50011 as he saw me he raised his paintball gun and shot rubber bullets at me. i lost my sight in my left eye permanently. i can't even see light. i also suffered injuries in my teeth and skull.

due to inflammation of my brain veins i was an inch away from becoming brain dead. i saw similar cases in the hospital, people who were shot in the eyes, but with birdshot. they were 50, 60 metal pellets in their bodies and one to three pellets in their eyes. salman and others we spoke to all said that despite going blind, they see light at the end of the tunnel, and they will not give up. parham ghobadi, bbc news. the family of tyree nichols, who died after being beaten by several memphis police officers, have described him as a "beautiful soul". they were speaking at his funeral which took place yesterday. us vice—president kamala harris was among the thousands attending the service in memphis, tennessee. a year—long review into children's social care services has prompted the government to announce £200—million of extra funding which it says will transform the sector and provide better support for vulnerable families.

record numbers of children are currently in care in england — kinship care, where a child is looked after by a relative, is being prioritised, with training promised for carers. but charities say the money may not be enough to solve all the problems. sanchia berg reports. stacey works at durham university, and used to have a very independent life. now she's a kinship carer for her four—year—old niece, georgie. adult activity has been replaced by a round of school, gymnastics, soft play. i love my life now. it is vastly different to what it was and what it could have been. i love my little person. i love that she's cheeky, mischievous, and it's kind of an avenue that i didn't think i wanted. i certainly don't want my own children, but i like georgie. she stepped in to stop georgie being taken into care. a court order made her georgie's special guardian, but she doesn't get an allowance as a foster carer would, and it can be

hard to make ends meet. i'm not ashamed to say it, but we make it into a game where, georgie will go and find the yellow stickers when we're out shopping and see if we like what items are there. and, you know, they don't know why kind of we're doing that. but, yeah, kind ofjust making the most of the amount of money we've got. the government has promised to support carers like stacy in the strategy for children's social care announced today. it says it will put families at the heart of reform, focus on more family—like placements, including kinship carers, give early support for families with addiction, domestic abuse and mental health difficulties. what we're trying to do is make sure that families can get the early help that they need, so they don't end up escalating in crisis and we can keep more families together. but where children can't stay with their families, they're going into a family—like environment, maybe kinship carer, or with a foster carer. and where that's not possible, they're going into children's homes. we also can make sure that they have a stable and loving environment.

this children's centre in north london is a model the minister would like to see copied elsewhere. it's helped cut the number of children going into care. i i think it's down to taking a whole i system approach and to making that decision to invest in early| intervention to make sure that families can get - the support when they need it at the first opportunity. can you get a green one? such early intervention is expensive. observers say the government's plans are too small scale. they only promise a fifth of the money recommended by last year's independent review into the sector. so there won't be any more cash in stacy's wallet. there you go, tabby. sancha berg, bbc news. a vigil has been held in milton keynes in memory of a four—year—old girl who was killed in a dog attack on tuesday evening. the girl has been named locally as alice stones. thames valley police described the incident as "tragic" and "isolated" and hasn't made any arrests. the dog — a family pet — has been humanely destroyed. the recent massacre at a dance

hall in california, during the lunar new year celebrations left the local asian—american community shocked — but also defiant. eleven people died when a gunman opened fire in monterey park, just east of downtown los angeles. many of the victims were keen ballroom dancers — a pasttime which is very popular among their community. 0ur correspondent ben derico went to meet a ballroom dancing group in san francisco to find out how they are responding to the attack... 0n on new year's eve, the los angeles suburb of monterey park became the site of a terrible shooting, 11 people killed at this ballroom as they danced and celebrated with friends and family. for seniors in the asian american community, ballroom dancing has become an incredibly popular hobby. the shooting has reverberated around dance halls across the country. this

shootin: dance halls across the country. this shooting in — dance halls across the country. this shooting in los _ dance halls across the country. tt 3 shooting in los angeles is not going to stop us. it will still come. this air have to stop us. it will still come. this pair have run _ to stop us. it will still come. this pair have run this _ to stop us. it will still come. this pair have run this ballroom near san francisco for almost 30 years. me and peter. — francisco for almost 30 years. ifiéi and peter, we francisco for almost 30 years. me and peter, we love francisco for almost 30 years. tj�*ie; and peter, we love to francisco for almost 30 years. me: and peter, we love to dance. francisco for almost 30 years. me and peter, we love to dance. we opened this studio. i think this is very important to the community, and my family, and they think it is theirfamily as well. my family, and they think it is their family as well. it my family, and they think it is their family as well.— my family, and they think it is their family as well. it is a place where dancers _ their family as well. it is a place where dancers can _ their family as well. it is a place where dancers can take - their family as well. it is a place where dancers can take a - their family as well. it is a place where dancers can take a break| their family as well. it is a place - where dancers can take a break from the stresses of daily life.— the stresses of daily life. ballroom dancin: the stresses of daily life. ballroom dancing makes _ the stresses of daily life. ballroom dancing makes me _ the stresses of daily life. ballroom dancing makes me happy, - the stresses of daily life. ballroom dancing makes me happy, and - the stresses of daily life. ballroom dancing makes me happy, and i i the stresses of daily life. ballroom | dancing makes me happy, and i can see people, talk to people, i listen to music and maybe i have some stress, then the music will make me dance two or three hours, not thinking about that. for dance two or three hours, not thinking about that.— dance two or three hours, not thinking about that. for this pair, dancin: thinking about that. for this pair, dancing has _ thinking about that. for this pair, dancing has been _ thinking about that. for this pair, dancing has been at _ thinking about that. for this pair, dancing has been at the - thinking about that. for this pair, dancing has been at the centre i thinking about that. for this pair, dancing has been at the centre of their marriage and the friendships

they've created for ito years. mr; they've created for 40 years. my wife and i _ they've created for 40 years. my wife and i met through dancing, thcat's— wife and i met through dancing, that's how— wife and i met through dancing, that's how we started. this is our second _ that's how we started. this is our second marriage. for dancing, it's bringing— second marriage. for dancing, it's bringing us— second marriage. for dancing, it's bringing us together.— second marriage. for dancing, it's bringing us together. some dancers come 'ust bringing us together. some dancers come just to — bringing us together. some dancers come just to strut _ bringing us together. some dancers come just to strut their _ bringing us together. some dancers come just to strut their stuff, i come just to strut their stuff, others take lessons from ruby. fin others take lessons from ruby. on the right side, the right side. good. from here, to this, to this. many here say they have no plans of staying away from the dance floor any time soon. we staying away from the dance floor any time soon-— any time soon. we still want to continue to _ any time soon. we still want to continue to enjoy _ any time soon. we still want to continue to enjoy our _ any time soon. we still want to continue to enjoy our dancing l continue to enjoy our dancing because _ continue to enjoy our dancing because all those people, they love dancing, _ because all those people, they love dancing, just like us here. as because all those people, they love dancing, just like us here.— dancing, 'ust like us here. as for rub , dancing, just like us here. as for ruby. she _ dancing, just like us here. as for ruby. she is _ dancing, just like us here. as for ruby, she is not _ dancing, just like us here. as for ruby, she is not scared either. l dancing, just like us here. as for l ruby, she is not scared either. i'm not afraid to _ ruby, she is not scared either. i“n not afraid to tell, i will be the one at the front desk, protecting everybody. ibiblc

one at the front desk, protecting everybody-— one at the front desk, protecting eve bod. “ , ., you're watching bbc news. hello. as we go through the next couple of days and nights is going to be mild for the time of year, till we get to later on saturday when it's going to turn that bit colder. the other thing about the weather for the next few days it will be mostly dry, some patchy light rain and drizzle in the forecast, heavier rain today across scotland. you can see the male deals across the chart, the squeeze on the isobars is going to turn when they're across the western isles later. increasingly the rain will become confined to the north—west, will be more cloudy at times and western areas generally, purchasing some patchy light rain or some drizzle, but not all the time. some brighter breaks as well. the line straight of the century and today will be across central and eastern

areas, and the black circles represent the average wind speeds. temperatures eight in lerwick, 13 in london and norwich. temperature is at this time of year, around about seven in edinburgh, nine in london. through this evening and overnight, the weather front through this evening and overnight, the weatherfront sinks through this evening and overnight, the weather front sinks out across scotland and northern ireland, a weakening feature, gets into northern england and starts to pivot, tomorrow it will push northwards. ahead of it, clear skies, if few showers in scotland and gales across the far north and northern isles. further south, some clear skies and it will be a mild night. through tomorrow, this is our weather front, night. through tomorrow, this is our weatherfront, which is pivoted, heading back towards the north—east is a feature. after a bright star in some eastern parts, you can see how the patchy rain moves across scotland, out of northern ireland and across northern england. it has come further south, we are looking at brighter skies and some sunshine. the white circles represent the average wind speeds. not politically windy tomorrow, with the wind easing

across the far north. temperatures, 7-14 across the far north. temperatures, 7—14 potentially around the london area. beyond that, mao conditions on friday, as we head onto saturday, this cold front coming our way —— mild conditions. as it sinks southwards, i will bring rain, weakening all the time, the blues represent the cold air. high pressure still in charge, even though it will be called on sunday, its there will be fairly settled. behind the weather front scotland on saturday, went on the house, the house, the north of scotland potentially to lower levels later, sun on sunday.

this is bbc news. the headlines at 11... the bank of england is widely expected to put up interest rates within the next hour. the rate is already at its highest level for 14 years. we level for 14 years. will have analysis on how to impact we will have analysis on how to impact on your monthly outgoings. the oil and gas giant shell reports record annual profits of £32 billion — the highest in its 115—year history. british gas suspends its force—fitting of prepament meters after a report that it was imposing them on vulnerable customers. its chief executive chris 0'shea has apologised. there is nothing that i can say that can express the horror i had when i heard this, when i saw this. it is completely unacceptable, that language is completely unacceptable.

allegations of war crimes in ukraine — a former russian army officer tells the bbc he saw russian soldiers shooting prisoners of war. the colonel shot the prisoner in the arm and in the right leg. under the knee and hit the bone. i went to the commanders and said the ukrainian needs to go to hospital, he will be dead by morning from blood loss. the largest ever outbreak of bird flu is now infecting mammals in the uk, like foxes and otters. the bank of england is expected to raise interest rates again today — for the tenth time in a row. interest rates — the cost of borrowing money — currently stand at 3.5%. they're expected to go

up to 4% later today. that means loans like car finance or credit card borrowing are likely to get more expensive. and it means mortgage payments are likely to cost more. but it should also mean better returns for people saving money. it's thought the bank of england will raise interest rates to try to slow down inflation. prices are currently rising at about 10.5% per year. it all adds to the rising cost of living — we'll be talking about that and about the record profits announced by the oil and gas giant shell later this hour. but first, ben boulos reports on what rising interest rates will mean for us. recently married, and a homeowner, alex, who's 26, and her husband, were hoping to have a baby. but they've had to shelve those plans. because of the mortgage going up by £300, what i was thinking of putting aside for the child, it would eat up most

of the outgoings that i would have had for the child, and we will have to wait until we get a better mortgage deal. higher interest rates don't only affect home owners looking to remortgage, and first time buyers. people who rent are likely to feel the impact as well. that's because many landlords have a mortgage, and if their monthly payments go up, they may well pass that onto their tenants through higher rents. when there's a big increase in cost, such as an increase in interest rates would give, we have no choice. and if that happens, and you didn't put rents up for your tenants, what happens? we'd effectively be losing money. by the end of this year, the bank of england estimates that four million homeowners in the uk with a mortgage will see their payments go up from an average of £750 a month, to an average of £1,000 a month, with some facing even steeper rises. but there is a glimmer of hope

forfirst time buyers who are currently renting. rents have been rising at quite a high rate, so the mortgage rates available now are quite comparable with the amount you'll be paying on rent. so i actually think that if you're a first time buyer, 2023 could be a good year to buy. that's little comfort, though, for those renewing a mortgage, like stu in leeds. initially offered a deal at £300 a month more, he got that down. but knowing when to lock in a rate is hard. it's almost like tossing a coin, it really is. i've still got £200 a month to find on top of my utilities bills doubling, and on top of the price of my food shop going through the roof, and the price of petrol and everything else that everybody's having a deal with. so, to sit and say, well, yeah, an extra 200 quid is a good result is ridiculous. but i suppose you've

got to try and find the positives where you can. but that can feel like slim pickings when trying to meet the increasing costs of keeping a roof over your head. joining me now for more on this is the co—founder of the savings advice group, savings champion, anna bowes. of course lots of people won't have very many savings but if you do what is your advice now, is rising interest rates be good news. interest rates rising for over a year now and it is made a significant difference to the amount of interest people can earn on their cash savings. an example of that, you go the best easy access accounts, where you can take money out, it was paying 0.71%. today you can get up to 3.35% on up to £5,000, and you can get 2.92% for more, so it is so much more than you are getting before so if you haven't

checked your savings rates for a while or if you are new to saving, now is a really good time because things are so much better than they have been. but things are so much better than they have been. �* , ., things are so much better than they have been. �* , ., ., ., have been. but why are banks allowed to hold them — have been. but why are banks allowed to hold them savings _ have been. but why are banks allowed to hold them savings rates _ have been. but why are banks allowed to hold them savings rates below i have been. but why are banks allowed to hold them savings rates below the l to hold them savings rates below the borrowing rates and below where they will interest rate level is? that borrowing rates and below where they will interest rate level is?— will interest rate level is? that is a very good _ will interest rate level is? that is a very good question _ will interest rate level is? that is a very good question and - will interest rate level is? that is a very good question and in i will interest rate level is? that is a very good question and in fact. a very good question and in fact treasury select committee will be asking that very question of our high street banks because they are paying some of the worst rates on the market. barclays and santander are paying 0.55% on their easy access account. i was just talking about 2.90% elsewhere and the base rate is 3.5%, perhaps 4%, so paying just over 0.5% easy access savers is just over 0.5% easy access savers is just appalling. it just over 0.5% easy access savers is just appalling-— just appalling. if people are thinkin: just appalling. if people are thinking they _ just appalling. if people are thinking they don't - just appalling. if people are thinking they don't have i just appalling. if people are l thinking they don't have very just appalling. if people are - thinking they don't have very much money to fall back on, is it worth them looking around and having to juggle various accounts and open and close accounts, what would you say, does it really make a difference? it

does. every penny counts, especially when you have a cost of living rising at 10.5%. every penny counts, so surely it is better that you and that interest rather than your bike taking advantage because any excess money the banks have they can put that into the bank of england and they get the base rate, 3.5% or perhaps 4% rate want to buy, getting nothing so i would absolutely tell people however much or however little it is a switch to a better paying savings account so that you money. paying savings account so that you mone . ~ . , paying savings account so that you mone. ., , , paying savings account so that you mone. , ., money. what else should be redoing as a result of — money. what else should be redoing as a result of these _ money. what else should be redoing as a result of these rising _ money. what else should be redoing as a result of these rising interest i as a result of these rising interest rates we are expecting to see today, where else can i try and save it? i deal with saving rates so it depends on your circumstances if you need to look elsewhere, you might want to get some financial advice. but in terms of saving, now is much more compelling to start saving and a lot of people may not have any savings rates, but if you can just try and

put something aside, regular saver accounts pay even more interest, lots of terms and conditions so it is important to understand them, but if you can put some money aside each month you will have a little bit of a nest egg to fall back on in hard times going forward.— a nest egg to fall back on in hard times going forward. good advice. like ou times going forward. good advice. like you very _ times going forward. good advice. like you very much _ times going forward. good advice. like you very much indeed. - europe's biggest energy firm, shell, has reported record annual profits of nearly $40 billion in 2022, more than double what it made in the previous year. the profits are the biggest in the firm's history — boosted by higher energy prices since the start of the ukraine war. shell has already said it will pay tax in the uk for the first time since 2017 — as a result of the government's windfall tax. let's take a closer look at the figures shell released this morning. it said its adjusted earnings had more than doubled to $39.9 billion — around £32.2 billion. the company said it expected to pay an additional $2.3 billion in tax on its 2022 earnings as a result of the eu's windfall tax,

and the uk's energy profits levy. it returned 26 billion to shareholders in 2022, through share buy—backs and dividends. it plans to spend a further $4 billion on buying back its own stock in the next three months. buying back shares is a way of increasing their value in the market. but the company invested only $3.5 billion on renewables and low carbon technologies in the last year. our business editor simonjack has more. no one has corrected me on this yet, i think it's the highest profit of any uk headquartered company in history. we have had rocketing oil and gas prices. this is 2020 games and we already had higher oil and gas prices as i world emerge from go it induced, and the demand came back

and then they were rocketing when you had russia invaded ukraine and things like russian oil and gas supplies were either shot off or shunned by international buyers making the market, people a lot of demand for what was up. that is a context for this. i doubt they will be touched next year because profits are coming down but there is, inflation at a 40 year high, people's energy bulls have doubled, trebled in some cases, and so there is an understandable outrage in some quarters that they think that shell should be paying much more tax. weirdly for the last five years shell has paid zero tax in the uk, for two reasons, one is 90% of their money comes from outside the uk, made and taxed elsewhere, the gulf of mexico, indonesia, brazil, etc, is only a tiny bit concerned the uk and they are allowed to offset investments they make an oil and gas projects here, said decommissioning

oil rigs against a profit so they end up with no profit at all and not paying a tax, they will pay some taxes here in 2022 and i expect them to pay hundreds of millions of uk tax next year but their numbers will look small compared to the vast profits and people will be concerned with. as we've been hearing, it comes at a time when households are feeling their budgets squeezed by the higher cost of energy and fuel. lisa nandy is the shadow levelling up secretary — she says the government needs to make energy companies pay a higher windfall tax. look, we welcome the fact that the government finally conceded the principle of a windfall tax last year. but let's not forget, they had to be dragged kicking and screaming to do it at a time when there were stories emerging from every part of this country about people who simply couldn't afford their heating. we believe that when companies are making record profits and families can't heat their homes, we should close those loopholes. they'll still make profits, but we should close the investment allowance loophole that allows them to get tax breaks for investing in fossil fuels.

we should backdate the windfall tax to when the government ought to have done it, not when they actually did it. and by doing so, we could get real help to families who are struggling now. the energy industry economist dr carole nakhle says the windfall taxes are controversial for the energy companies. windfall taxes are pretty controversial because we already saw such taxes implement last year, and the oil industry is already paying higher taxes than other sectors in the uk and many other producing countries. we have to understand the purpose of taxes, not only imposed to capture the profits companies make, because we need to keep some profits for the companies so that they can sustain their business, but also more importantly to invest. those windfall taxes that are imposed usually come with some incentives to invest in certain areas, so in the uk you have higher windfall tax, like we saw in previous years,

but that additional levy comes with an incentive for investment, so if the company spends £1 on investing in oil and gas exploration, they can claim around 90p of that pound spent, so there is this kind of carrot and stick whereby you want to capture more profits, more revenues from the profits made by the oil and gas companies, but you also want to direct investment in a way that you find it suitable and beneficial for the country, then more green energy investment. british gas has suspended the forced installation of pre—payment metres because of reports that debt collectors it employed forced their way into the homes of vulnerable customers to fit them. some of those customers were disabled, or single parents. the regulator 0fgem has launched an investigation. aru na iyengar reports. hello? british gas, your gas supplier. we're here with a court warrant. can you please open the door? otherwise we have a locksmith

who will open it for you. knocking this is the exciting bit. i love this bit. paul morgan—bentley, a times newspaper reporter, says he has witnessed instances of energy companies using strong—arm tactics when customers fall into debt. there's a company that the major energy firms, including british gas and others, use to do this very aggressive debt collection. they're called arvato. and when i found out about this, i applied to work there undercover. on some of the coldest days in recent weeks, i was in teams of either four orfive men, breaking into families' homes and force fitting pay—as—you—go meters for british gas. having a meter like this means you pay up front. if you can't top it up, there's no heating. the energy firms need a court warrant. they're supposed to check if the customer is vulnerable. this is the home of a single dad with three children. they weren't in when the team

entered the property. in the kitchen there was a child's ventolin asthma inhaler and eczema cream. the person living there, if they couldn't afford to top up, they'd go off supply. and we walked in and the radiators were hot. and we left and the radiators were cold. this agent offered tips on judging a customer's vulnerability. if theyjust say, "oh, - i'm a single mum and i've got three kids", that'sl not a vulnerability. it is a vulnerability, but i'm a bit old school, a bit hard—nosed. i the reporter worked in teams enforcing warrants for british gas, which included the homes of a 77—year—old man, and a mother aged 25 with four children. how old are your children? my youngest is three—weeks—old. this woman said her bills had jumped from 54 to £364 a month. the debt agent in this case decided to walk away without fitting a prepayment meter, but said other agents might act differently. it's a very unusual

situation at the moment. and this kind of very aggressive debt collection just feels very, very unfair. 0fgem has now confirmed it's investigating, telling the bbc... there is nothing that i can say that can express the horror every one of our customers deserve to be treated with respect and that is what i expect of our colleagues and colleagues and contractors. and so as soon as we heard this we suspended arvato. they are not doing any work for us right now. we then commissioned an independent report so we can get to the bottom of what's going on and therefore when we get to the bottom we'll therefore then fix it. where we've got it wrong, we will make it right. we also yesterday morning announced that we have suspended any installation of pre—payment meters under warrant. with energy prices remaining high, companies and regulators may need to find a better way to sort out those

who refuse to pay and those who just can't. i'm nowjoined by morgan wild, who is head of policy at citizens advice. thanks for coming in. how many of these sorts of cases are you hearing about and when did it start to get more difficult? i about and when did it start to get more difficult?— more difficult? i think what the times has _ more difficult? i think what the times has uncovered _ more difficult? i think what the times has uncovered is - more difficult? i think what the times has uncovered is really l times has uncovered is really shocking that it is not surprising. we have seen widespread reports of this type of activity, prepayment meters being installed regardless of whether people are vulnerable or have disabilities, something we have really seen it take off over the past year and what is really concerning is we are seeing huge numbers of people who have these prepayment meters installed and then just aren't in a position to top up, to use any energy so they are effectively left in the cold, in the dark, unable to use energy which in too many cases is absolutely

essential for a disability or because they are older and for protections that are in place are just being routinely ignored. itrai’hat just being routinely ignored. what sort of stories _ just being routinely ignored. what sort of stories are _ just being routinely ignored. what sort of stories are you _ just being routinely ignored. what sort of stories are you hearing about from people who can switch the power off? we about from people who can switch the ower off? ~ ., ., ., , power off? we saw one woman, she came to us — power off? we saw one woman, she came to us shortly _ power off? we saw one woman, she came to us shortly after _ power off? we saw one woman, she came to us shortly after christmas l came to us shortly after christmas and they had been switched, they had and they had been switched, they had a smart meter, they had been switched to a smart prepay mode without their knowledge and the first i heard of it was not being able to turn the lights on over christmas, they spent christmas in the cold and dark, had a disabled son, and didn't understand what had happened until they came to citizens advice and we were able to explain what had happened and it is that kind of case that we keep on seeing day in, day out and why we are calling on the government to put a

formal moratorium on first installation is prepayment meters to give space for the regulator to put a new protection regime in place. and people with disabilities and their families and people with disabilities and theirfamilies are and people with disabilities and their families are supposed to be protected anyway. ed miliband this morning the shadow minister on this said we need to have a national debate about whether anyone should have their power in this country and we don't switch off water supplies, in the past people might have lost their lives as a result he said, should we be doing this in this day and age at all to end? i should we be doing this in this day and age at all to end?— and age at all to end? i think the comparison _ and age at all to end? i think the comparison with _ and age at all to end? i think the comparison with water _ and age at all to end? i think the comparison with water is - and age at all to end? i think the comparison with water is exactly| comparison with water is exactly right. water is essential for life, so was energy. there has to be a move to a new regime where the consequence of falling behind on your bill shouldn't be that you are cut off from power altogether. thank ou. pressure is mounting on the prime minister to explain what he knew about allegations of bullying made against dominic raab, before appointing him

asjustice secretary. we'rejoined now by dave penman, general secretary of the fda union, which represents civil servants. thank you very much forjoining us. what are your concerns on this? we know obviously an investigation is under way and the number of people have given evidence.— have given evidence. there are a coule of have given evidence. there are a couple of things, _ have given evidence. there are a couple of things, first _ have given evidence. there are a couple of things, first we - have given evidence. there are a couple of things, first we need . have given evidence. there are a | couple of things, first we need to understand what the prime minister did and didn't know or stop he has pointedly refused to answer the pointedly refused to answer the point about whether he was briefed about concerns about dominic raab before he appointed him, he has relied on the fact there were no formal complaints and keep using that deliberate language, we need to know what he did know and didn't know what he did know and didn't know and that is important because not only did he say he would lead a government of integrity but at the end of the day when this investigation is concluded, it is the prime minister who has to determine the outcome. the qc who is doing an investigation is only astonishing with ice, the prime

minister will determine the outcome of this and those complaints need to know at the beginning of this process whether he was aware of concerns about dominic raab and where that places him in relation to making the decision at the end of the process. making the decision at the end of the process-— the process. what do you say to concerns that _ the process. what do you say to concerns that all _ the process. what do you say to concerns that all this _ the process. what do you say to concerns that all this is - the process. what do you say to concerns that all this is a - concerns that all this is a politically mounted campaign against dominic raab? itrai’hat politically mounted campaign against dominic raab?— politically mounted campaign against dominic raab? what we know is there are eiuht dominic raab? what we know is there are eight separate _ dominic raab? what we know is there are eight separate complaints. - dominic raab? what we know is there are eight separate complaints. we i are eight separate complaints. we think that involves over two dozen civil servants, think that involves over two dozen civilservants, it think that involves over two dozen civil servants, it relates to three different government departments and it is spread over a period of four years, are people really saying that there is a coordinated political conspiracy among civil servants, in that case, that number of civil servants over the period of time, against dominic raab and for what specific purpose? that is the excuse, a desperate excuse for those who are trying to defend the deputy prime ministerjust now and it is also insulting to civil servants who

serve the government of the day and ministers like dominic raab impartially. they are not acting in a political way, they are asking out of desperation because they have no choice because they are feeling they have been bullied and they have to raise a formal complaint. it is riaht raise a formal complaint. it is right given — raise a formal complaint. it is right given that _ raise a formal complaint. it is right given that inquiry has not yet reported surely that rishi sunak have the ability to appoint him into cabinet before any findings were made against him surely? ii the made against him surely? if the prime minister _ made against him surely? if the prime minister was _ made against him surely? if the prime minister was briefed i made against him surely? it trte: prime minister was briefed which is part of the normal process when a prime minister appoints a cabinet, that there were concerns about dominic raab, it is important we know what he did, was he curious, did he ask any questions, what was the detail given to him and why if that was the case did he decide not to do anything with that and appoint dominic raab to cabinet? that is a really important point. he could have said before that appointment, i need to do more, i need to investigate what this is about, but

again the prime minister is dodging the question is on this. we need to understand exactly what he was told and if there is nothing to hide he should come clean on that point. thy, should come clean on that point. a lot of those details might be confidential, might relate to internal staffing matters where people don't want details revealed, surely the prime minister and a ministerial teams have a right to privacy on certain issues. qt ministerial teams have a right to privacy on certain issues. of course but what the _ privacy on certain issues. of course but what the prime _ privacy on certain issues. of course but what the prime minister - privacy on certain issues. of course but what the prime minister hasn't| but what the prime minister hasn't said is what he did. if actually he was briefed about concerns and he established that there was no evidence behind him or that it wasn't something he had to take into account that is fine, he is not doing that, he is dodging the question and every time he dodges that question he raises concerns about his ability to be the judge and jury on the outcome of this investigation because if he did now and he prioritised his own political priorities over the well—being of civil servants, what does that say about his ability to make a judgment

at the end of this process? civil servants don't need to guess about this. they saw this is exactly what happened when they complaints that were investigated about priti patel. the prime minister sat on the report for six months when it was forced out of him, he ignored the evidence that she had believed civil servants and breached the ministerial code and breached the ministerial code and gave her get out ofjail card. that is what civil servants have seen from previous prime minister. this primer has to prove to civil servants they can trust him. fin this primer has to prove to civil servants they can trust him. on the ruestion servants they can trust him. on the question of — servants they can trust him. on the question of strikes, _ servants they can trust him. on the question of strikes, the _ servants they can trust him. on the question of strikes, the cabinet i question of strikes, the cabinet office minister oliver dowden has claimed just 12% of civil servants participated in strike action yesterday, and he said essential public services continued uninterrupted, what would you say about that? i uninterrupted, what would you say about that?— about that? i would hope oliver dowden rather _ about that? i would hope oliver dowden rather than _ about that? i would hope oliver dowden rather than trying i about that? i would hope oliver dowden rather than trying to i dowden rather than trying to celebrate that somehow those who went on strike would supporting the government position understand that some union members went to strike action, most civil servants and union members are unhappy with the

government to push the pace whether they took strike action are not the idea that civil servant get a two to 3% increase with inflation or is somehow happy and supporting the government because i haven't taken strike action is nonsensical. what the government need to do is a red the government need to do is a red the fundamental causes of the strike action. they have done nothing. they keep saying the country can't afford inflation proof pay rises but will they haven't done as a single thing beyond two or 3% for single servants or the recommendations from the review bodies when it comes to elsewhere in the public sector. the government need to get round the negotiating table and solve this dispute. they need to understand there is a cult is in crisis and a staffing crisis across the public services, and crowing about the numbers of civil servants who went on strike is not way to solve it. thank you. the current wave of bird flu in the uk is spilling over to mammals. more than 200 cases have already

been recorded in animals like otters and foxes that are believed to have eaten infected birds. health officials say the risk of the virus jumping to humans is very low but they'll carry out more targeted testing and surveillance — both of animals and humans exposed to the virus. our environment and rural affairs correspondent claire marshall reports. this is now, by far, the worst avian flu outbreak in global history. more than 200 million birds both wild and farmed have died or had to be cullled. a development that is worrying scientists now is the spill over into mammals. in the uk, the virus has been found in foxes. they are scavengers and can feed on birds. it's also been found in otters, the kind of animal also likely to encounter infected birds. so, what about the risk to humans? ok, so, this is the genetics laboratory. we were shown into the government lab in surrey at the heart

of the uk's fight against avian flu. so, here we have some of the latest technology and innovation in order to speed our work and generate that really important data. so this virus is absolutely on the march. how much of that is a worry to you that this might be be the next covid—19? i think when you are working with this disease every day, you are acutely aware of the risk and what it can become, and without overplaying, this global spread is a concern. if we don't solve the problem across the globe, we are going to continue to have that risk. this view is held around the globe. we spoke to the head of science at the world we spoke to the head of science at the world organisation for animal health. there is a risk for further transmission between species and we cannot underestimate the potential adaptation to humans. and that, in addition to the risk for impacting animal health, will have a very important impact on public health.

the threat to humans is still said to be very low. overwhelmingly, the virus infects birds. in warwickshire, this lake is treasured by locals. many migrating waterfowl come here. last month there was an outbreak of avian flu and restrictions are still in place. sue runs a volunteer group. we are out here every day and we can see what is going on and we can see the state of the birds that are in and we check all the areas around with the binoculars to make sure there is no dead animals in the corners, especially if the wind blows, it moves them up to a particular end. and we just keep an eye on it. the advice is clear. heed any warning signs and don't touch any dead or dying birds. claire marshall, bbc news. staying with avian flu. we can talk now to muhammad munir, professor in virology at the university of lancaster. how could this spread to humans?

normally this infection is restricted to the birds, as is the name bird flu. however over the time itjumped for burrs to some of the mammals as we are seeing in the uk, and foxes, then the virus would evolve some of those mutations that make this virus more susceptible and more adoptive for the humans and in humans it can store into the upper respiratory tract and that is the wade barrett has adopted into the human population historically, this bird flu, it is key to get this infection, secretions from the dead birds were six birds from mucus and faeces but it is because contact and touch his services to gases infection, it is not airborne so it is not easy to capture humans. the fact it is spreading to mammals, foxes obviously, not only in the countryside but towns and cities,

what should people be aware of if they are worried about infected foxes? i they are worried about infected foxes? ., they are worried about infected foxes? ~' ,., ., they are worried about infected foxes? ~' ., ., foxes? i think the important factor is the virus — foxes? i think the important factor is the virus not _ foxes? i think the important factor is the virus not only _ foxes? i think the important factor is the virus not only bird _ foxes? i think the important factor is the virus not only bird flu, i foxes? i think the important factor is the virus not only bird flu, but i is the virus not only bird flu, but many circulate into animals and those animals, particularly wild, because they have a lower level spray will inspect so we don't know about circulating into the animals so the best thing to do is to provide the close contact and i think contact is really key because we now have a million viruses circulating into the birds and we cannot eliminate all of those because that would be a pull is errant if we aim to remove those viruses but all we can do is reduce close contact between the animals and humans so these viruses do not come into the uk mid because more chances we have, higher likelihood it will adopt into operation. itrai’hat it will adopt into operation. what about dogs _ it will adopt into operation. what about dogs and _ it will adopt into operation. what about dogs and cats, _ it will adopt into operation. what about dogs and cats, if _ it will adopt into operation. what about dogs and cats, if it - it will adopt into operation. what about dogs and cats, if it is in foxes and other mammals can it not then come into domesticated pets?

absolutely. recently we have noticed bird flu, it is having more adaptability for mammals, we notice around the world that all cats, badgers, and a cat in france has been infected with h5n1 so the best possible scenario is if someone feels their dog or cat has picked up a dead bird onto the street, the best possible way is get out contested and make sure the animals are not carrying an infection and not posing a risk to humans. worrying. thanks very much indeed for your time. now it's time for a look at the weather with carol. hello again. the weather for the next few days is going to remain mild, but that doesn't mean necessarily dry everywhere nor sunny everywhere. we've got rain at the moment,

which is becoming increasingly confined to the north—west of scotland. the winds picking up here as well. out towards the west there is a bit more cloud producing some patchy light rain and drizzle. the brighter skies today across central and eastern areas. but these temperatures, eight to 13 degrees, way above average for the time of year, which is roughly seven to nine north to south. now, through this evening and overnight, the rain sinks southwards out of scotland into northern england and northern ireland, and it pivots round. behind it there'll be some clear skies and a few showers, and ahead of it there'll also be some clear skies. but it's going to be a mild night for the time of year. tomorrow, the rain continues to push northwards. the gales we'll have overnight across the far north of scotland easing, the brighter skies further south. and these are our temperatures, seven to 14 degrees. hello, this is bbc news.

the headlines... interest rates are expected rise for a tenth consecutive time, following an announcement at noon, from the bank of england. the oil and gas giant shell reports record annual profits of £32 billion — the highest in its 115—year history. british gas suspends it's force—fitting of prepayment meters after a report that it was imposing them on vulnerable customers. it's chief executive, chris 0'shea has apologized. there is nothing i can say to express the horror i felt when i learned about this. that is unacceptable. sport now. and for a full round up from the bbc sport centre, here's laura. the 2020 36 nations get under way on

saturday. scotland and england will battle it out for the calcutta cup. gregor townsend has named his team for the opener. there is no place in the squad for an established forward or glasgow warriors scrum—half ali price. or glasgow warriors scrum-half ali rice. . , or glasgow warriors scrum-half ali rice. ., , ., price. the last time we were at twickenham — price. the last time we were at twickenham we _ price. the last time we were at twickenham we played - price. the last time we were at twickenham we played really i price. the last time we were at i twickenham we played really well. there were no crowds that day. three years prior to that we were 31—0 down after 30 minutes. not the best performance that day. we came back and almost won the game. as a venue it is one of the toughest places to go. recent memories and evidence that if we play our game, if we are focused and accurate, we can make it really difficult for england. the manchester — really difficult for england. the manchester united manager has told his players a wembley appearance will mean nothing unless they beat newcastle in the league cup final.

there 3—0 lead against nottingham forest was added to in the second leg. it is confirmed united's first domestic final appearance since 2019 and puts them a win away from ending their six year wait for winning a trophy. it their six year wait for winning a troh . , their six year wait for winning a tro .h _ , ., ., their six year wait for winning a troh. , ., trophy. it is good to reach the final, of course. _ trophy. it is good to reach the final, of course. it _ trophy. it is good to reach the final, of course. it is - trophy. it is good to reach the final, of course. it is not i trophy. it is good to reach the | final, of course. it is not about reaching the final, it is about winning the final. it is going to be tough, we had a great opponent, so we will prepare well. now we have everything on the premier league because in two days the premier league will continue. it because in two days the premier league will continue.— because in two days the premier league will continue. it has been announced _ league will continue. it has been announced that _ league will continue. it has been announced that some _ league will continue. it has been announced that some fans i league will continue. it has been announced that some fans will i league will continue. it has been | announced that some fans will be allowed to stand at the final. 600 safe standing seats will be allocated to each club behind the goals. it would be the first major domestic england's men's final in 35 years to allow standing. more

countries could join ukraine in calling for a boycott of the next olympics if russian and belarusian athletes are allowed to compete. russia has said a campaign to exclude it from international sport will fail and the committee president says he does not want to punish individual athletes. some baltic nations are meeting later to come up with a joint appeal to the ioc asking them to sustain the band. insanity. we cannot really be thinking seriously about equal opportunities for the russian athletes to compete compared with the ukrainians. they are trying to put them on the same field to compare compete with each other. there is massive support through the ranks through the russian olympic team of support for the war and we still allow the people who support

the atrocities and murders of russian armies to compete on a global stage of peace. seriously, it cannot be really right. thy, global stage of peace. seriously, it cannot be really right.— cannot be really right. a teenage leg-spinner— cannot be really right. a teenage leg-spinner has _ cannot be really right. a teenage leg-spinner has been _ cannot be really right. a teenage leg-spinner has been called i cannot be really right. a teenage leg-spinner has been called up l cannot be really right. a teenage| leg-spinner has been called up to leg—spinner has been called up to the england limited overs squad for the england limited overs squad for the first time. he became the youngest man to play for england in the final test against pakistan just before christmas. he has now been included for the one day and t20 tool of bangladesh in march. —— t20 tour. instead of restricting racegoers from watching the action in certain enclosures based on what they are wearing, they say they want visitors to dress as they feel most comfortable and confident. the change takes place with immediate effect and follows feedback. more in

the next hour. an mp has said she was "bombarded" with death and rape threats after speaking out against controversial social media influencer andrew tate. alex davies—jones, the labour mp for pontypridd, said she received the abuse to her email and her office. andrew tate, who's amassed millions of followers for his divisive content, has been detained in romania as part of a human trafficking and rape investigation. he denies the allegations. alex davies—jonesjoins me now from pontypridd. thank you for your time. can you tell us a bit about what you have been through on this? whenever you decide to speak _ been through on this? whenever you decide to speak out _ been through on this? whenever you decide to speak out on _ been through on this? whenever you decide to speak out on an _ been through on this? whenever you decide to speak out on an issue i been through on this? whenever you decide to speak out on an issue like l decide to speak out on an issue like this, you know there will be some backlash. sadly that is the case for many politicians who choose to speak out on issues like this. i knew it was going to happen, sadly. my social media, my office, my e—mail

have all been subjected to some of the most violent and horrendous abuse, death threats as a result of speaking up and calling for more support for teachers who are having to deal with the issue every day. also calling on the government to do more to protect women and girls, picky online, because this is where all the harmful content is perpetuating on stop —— nonstop. people might think those in front line politics might be an year to this sort of stuff but what does it feel like? it this sort of stuff but what does it feel like? , . ' this sort of stuff but what does it feel like? , ., , ., , this sort of stuff but what does it feel like? , ., ' ., , ., feel like? it is awful, awfulto have any _ feel like? it is awful, awfulto have any kind _ feel like? it is awful, awfulto have any kind of _ feel like? it is awful, awfulto have any kind of abuse - feel like? it is awful, awfultoj have any kind of abuse hurled feel like? it is awful, awful to i have any kind of abuse hurled at feel like? it is awful, awful to - have any kind of abuse hurled at me, particularly of something which is such a threatening level. people saying they know where you live and they are coming to get you. it can be incredibly demoralising. it is not uncommon. it is not about me as

a politician, iam not uncommon. it is not about me as a politician, i am a front line politician. i will debate readily. they are following teachings, as he likes to refer to them as. it is about harmful content which is about targeting people. it is not about me as an individual or andrew tait and people like him, it is about how dangerous the misogyny and violent content is and it is having real—world impact. content is and it is having real-world impact.- content is and it is having real-world impact. content is and it is having real-world im act. ., , , ., real-world impact. there has been a lot of debate — real-world impact. there has been a lot of debate about _ real-world impact. there has been a lot of debate about what _ real-world impact. there has been a| lot of debate about what government can do to regulate this sort of stuff. specifically, what do you ink the government should be doing right now? we the government should be doing right now? ~ ., ,,., , �* now? we have the online safety bill makin: its now? we have the online safety bill making its way _ now? we have the online safety bill making its way through _ now? we have the online safety bill making its way through parliament. | making its way through parliament. sadly, it has been watered down for that there was talk of doing something to regulate the legal but harmful content. the pro—suicide

content, pro eating disorder content is pushed towards individuals via algorithms and business models. has now been removed from the bill. there is very little in there to protect people online, particularly women and girls and people of colour. it is incredibly harmful. there are limited resources for teachers, professionals in the community who are having to deal with the fallout of this content online having off—line impact. whenever i chat to teachers they are telling me day in and day out they are having to deal with online harm's —— real world harm's the online content is causing. share harm's -- real world harm's the online content is causing. are you auoin to online content is causing. are you going to be _ online content is causing. are you going to be careful— online content is causing. are you going to be careful about - online content is causing. are you going to be careful about what i online content is causing. are you | going to be careful about what you say and how much police protection have you had? what about the staff

you work with? mr; have you had? what about the staff you work with?— you work with? my staff are brilliant and _ you work with? my staff are brilliant and had _ you work with? my staff are brilliant and had been i you work with? my staff are i brilliant and had been supporting me. sadly, they are having to receive most of this through e—mails and social media, having to deal with this day in and day out. the local police. been outstanding, i cannot thank them enough. it is not about the individual, it is sad that i am having to deal with this. i chose to become an mp. i knew i would be putting myself out there to talk about these issues. they must be tackled and we must see real leadership. this is what women and girls are facing every single day in all of their work places. it may not be as high profile but they are dealing with misogyny, sexism and violence. we are dealing with an epidemic in this country against women and girls. it takes a culture step to make a difference. if nichols for a policy change, i will

continue to do that. —— if it causes a policy change. a year—long review into children's social care services has prompted the government to announce £200 million of extra funding, which it says will transform the sector and provide better support for vulnerable families. record numbers of children are currently in care in england — kinship care, where a child is looked after by a relative, is being prioritised with training promised for carers. but charities say the money may not be enough to solve all the problems. sanchia berg reports. stacy works at durham university, and used to have a very independent life. now she's a kinship carer for her four—year—old niece, georgie. adult activity has been replaced by a round of school, gymnastics, soft play. i love my life now. it is vastly different to what it was and what it could have been. i love my little person. i love that she's cheeky, mischievous, and it's kind of an avenue that i didn't think i wanted. i certainly don't want my own

children, but i like georgie. stacy stepped in to stop georgie being taken into care. a court order made her georgie's special guardian, but she doesn't get an allowance as a foster carer would, and it can be hard to make ends meet. i'm not ashamed to say it, but we make it into a game, where georgie will go and find the yellow stickers when we're out shopping and see if we like what items are there. and, you know, they don't know why kind of we're doing that. but, yeah, kind ofjust making the most of the amount of money we've got. the government has promised to support carers like stacy in the strategy for children's social care announced today. it says it will put families at the heart of reform, focus on more family—like placements, including kinship carers, give early support for families with addiction, domestic abuse and mental health difficulties. what we're trying to do is make sure that families can get the early help that they need, so they don't end up escalating

in crisis and we can keep more families together. but where children can't stay with their families, they're going into a family—like environment, maybe kinship carer, or with a foster carer. and where that's not possible, they're going into children's homes. we also can make sure that they have a stable and loving environment. this children's centre in north london is a model the minister would like to see copied elsewhere. it's helped cut the number of children going into care. i think it's down to taking a whole system approach and to making l that decision to invest in early intervention to make sure i that families can get - the support when they need it at the first opportunity. can you get a green one? such early intervention is expensive. observers say the government's plans are too small scale. they only promise a fifth of the money recommended by last year's independent review into the sector. so there won't be any more cash in stacy's wallet. there you go, tabby. sancha berg, bbc news.

i'm joined now by wendy a kinship carer, who's bringing up two of her grandchildren. thank you so much for your time today. can you tell us what it has been like for you bringing up your grandchildren? what position has it that un? i grandchildren? what position has it that un? ., , grandchildren? what position has it that un? .,, ., ~ ., that un? i was working. i went to work one morning, _ that un? i was working. i went to work one morning, at _ that un? i was working. i went to work one morning, at eight i that un? i was working. i went to l work one morning, at eight o'clock. my work one morning, at eight o'clock. my ten o'clock i had stopped work and i was looking after my grandson. your life completely changed, obviously, from that point. absolutely. i had a fairly well—paid job, he had double income, looking towards retirement. suddenly back to being parents on a single income. you are also looking after another grandchild. you are also looking after another urandchild. , , u, ., you are also looking after another urandchild. , , u, ., ., grandchild. yes, she came later, a few ears grandchild. yes, she came later, a few years later- — grandchild. yes, she came later, a few years later. i _ grandchild. yes, she came later, a few years later. i had _ grandchild. yes, she came later, a few years later. i had her - grandchild. yes, she came later, a few years later. i had her from - few years later. i had her from birth. i

few years later. i had her from birth- i am _ few years later. i had her from birth. i am sure _ few years later. i had her from birth. i am sure your _ few years later. i had her from - birth. i am sure your grandchildren are a source ofjoy and they are very lucky to have you. tell me about some of the challenges he faced as a result. figs about some of the challenges he faced as a result.— faced as a result. as you have already heard _ faced as a result. as you have already heard we _ faced as a result. as you have already heard we don't - faced as a result. as you have already heard we don't have l already heard we don't have automatic access to all the things that foster carers would have, for instance. a lot of our children to have problems from what they may have problems from what they may have been exposed to before they came to us. unfortunately, the provision for counselling isn't there. 50 provision for counselling isn't there. ,, ., . ., provision for counselling isn't there. . ., ., there. so the children are not havin: there. so the children are not having any — there. so the children are not having any therapy, _ there. so the children are not having any therapy, or - there. so the children are not having any therapy, or any i there. so the children are not - having any therapy, or any external help, which you think would be valuable? ., ., ., valuable? not without a huge fight. what about the _ valuable? not without a huge fight. what about the financial _ valuable? not without a huge fight. what about the financial situation? | what about the financial situation? what about the financial situation? what do you think needs to happen? the whole thing needs to be looked at properly. when you consider the figures do not actually work out. there are 75,000 children in social

care, all of whom are known about. there could be as many as 300,000 children in kinship care, who are not registered. they need to be treated equally and to have the financial allowance in line with what foster families get. that is because in _ what foster families get. that is because in your _ what foster families get. that is because in your view, _ what foster families get. that is because in your view, obviously | what foster families get. that is i because in your view, obviously it is saving the social care system money by not placing children into care homes. 0bviously, money by not placing children into care homes. obviously, it places a strain on you and your husband when your partner, i presume. the outcomes— your partner, i presume. the outcomes for _ your partner, i presume. tue: outcomes for children your partner, i presume. tta: outcomes for children in your partner, i presume. tt2 outcomes for children in kinship care is far better financially, educationally, you know, everything is much betterfor a kinship child. we need to be announced to be able to bring them up. i let you know,

when you work it out, we are this little forgotten army who actually save the government millions every year. save the government millions every ear. . save the government millions every ear, ., . ., , save the government millions every ear. ., , ., save the government millions every ear. ., year. that comes as a customer you in personal _ year. that comes as a customer you in personalfinances. _ year. that comes as a customer you in personal finances. thus _ year. that comes as a customer you in personal finances. thus an - year. that comes as a customer you in personal finances. thus an idea i in personalfinances. thus an idea of the numbers you are juggling with. —— give us an idea. t of the numbers you are juggling with. -- give us an idea.- with. -- give us an idea. i have lost my pension, _ with. -- give us an idea. i have lost my pension, my _ with. -- give us an idea. i have lost my pension, my private . with. -- give us an idea. i have - lost my pension, my private pension. i had to cash that in because i could not get legal aid to go to chil to get my arrangement order. so many of us have this. housing is a problem stop there you have a smaller property or you even have your own children still at home, your own children still at home, your house has to expand to take in kinship children.— kinship children. have you had any financial support _ kinship children. have you had any financial support at _ kinship children. have you had any financial support at all? _ kinship children. have you had any financial support at all? i - kinship children. have you had any financial support at all? i have - kinship children. have you had any financial support at all? i have had some, i financial support at all? i have had some. i have _ financial support at all? i have had some, i have been _ financial support at all? i have had some, i have been really - financial support at all? i have had some, i have been really lucky. i. some, i have been really lucky. i had to fight for it but i did get some. unfortunately it is a postcode

lottery again. it depends where you live as to what financial support is in place. if the child comes to you from another area that can also cause problems. who is going to take responsibility for giving those allowances? this is why a national, straightforward across the border allowance for all kinship carers would be really good.- allowance for all kinship carers would be really good. would you mind me -auttin would be really good. would you mind me putting to — would be really good. would you mind me putting to you _ would be really good. would you mind me putting to you counter _ would be really good. would you mind me putting to you counter argument l me putting to you counter argument which some people might ink, we do not want to talk about. there are lots of circumstances why people become kinship carers which we are not going to go into. at the end of the day family or a close friend you are helping out, some might say it is is the duty of a family or delete map and not the responsibility of taxpayers. —— and not the

responsibility of taxpayers. flan responsibility of taxpayers. can they afford _ responsibility of taxpayers. can they afford to _ responsibility of taxpayers. (can they afford to put the children into foster care?— foster care? people who may be lookinr foster care? people who may be looking after— foster care? people who may be looking after children _ foster care? people who may be looking after children and - looking after children and struggling with finances have had to think about letting go of children because it is too much of a financial stretch, are people having those debates?— those debates? they are. they are lookinr those debates? they are. they are lookin: at those debates? they are. they are looking at it _ those debates? they are. they are looking at it because _ those debates? they are. they are looking at it because it _ those debates? they are. they are looking at it because it is - those debates? they are. they are looking at it because it is what - those debates? they are. they are looking at it because it is what is i looking at it because it is what is best for the child. if they cannot cope, what is best for the child quest but we all look round for yellow stickers and how we can cut costs but, you know, i think it is the overall feeling of actually, it is the anxiety and trying to keep the children on an even keel as well because they have not got those pressures. they have undergone quite a lot of changes in their lives

already. a lot of changes in their lives alread . ~ . a lot of changes in their lives alread .~ ., a lot of changes in their lives alread . ~ ., ., a lot of changes in their lives alread. ., ., . , a lot of changes in their lives alread. ., ., . already. what sort of choices are ou already. what sort of choices are you having _ already. what sort of choices are you having to _ already. what sort of choices are you having to make _ already. what sort of choices are you having to make day-to-day i already. what sort of choices are l you having to make day-to-day to you having to make day—to—day to keep going at the moment? you having to make day-to-day to keep going at the moment? obviously, the same as any _ keep going at the moment? obviously, the same as any other _ keep going at the moment? obviously, the same as any other parent _ keep going at the moment? obviously, the same as any other parent would - the same as any other parent would be. you know, you havejust got to tailor your budget to what your income is. you know. pardon. and great you knowjust income is. you know. pardon. and great you know just to income is. you know. pardon. and great you knowjust to keep the children happy while fed and warm. —— and, you know, just to keep their children happy. -- and, you know, 'ust to keep their children happy.— children happy. many people will be watchini in children happy. many people will be watching in kenya _ children happy. many people will be watching in kenya are _ children happy. many people will be watching in kenya are doing - children happy. many people will be watching in kenya are doing an - watching in kenya are doing an amazing thing. i am sure those children are very lucky to have you. king charles will not feature on australia's new $5 note, the country's central bank has announced. the new design will pay tribute to "the culture and history" of indigenous australians, the reserve bank of australia says. a portrait of the late queen elizabeth ii appears on the current design

of the $5 note. i'm joined now by dr agnieshka sobochinska, director of the menzies australia institute at kings college london. thank you forjoining us. people might say, about time stop strong republican sentiment. this might say, about time stop strong republican sentiment.— republican sentiment. this is not necessarily _ republican sentiment. this is not necessarily a _ republican sentiment. this is not necessarily a signal— republican sentiment. this is not necessarily a signal moment - republican sentiment. this is not necessarily a signal moment the | necessarily a signal moment the independent identity for australia. it has been brewing for buy leather 100 years, whether australia represents itself as a former british colony, allegiance to the monarchy being part of that or to what extent it projects an independent identity. has been matters of debate for decades now. this would be the latest in a very long chapter of those debates. halal long chapter of those debates. how much are people — long chapter of those debates. how much are people paying attention? do you think it would matter to people on a day—to—day basis? tn a you think it would matter to people on a day-to-day basis?— you think it would matter to people on a day-to-day basis? in a sense it does. it on a day-to-day basis? in a sense it does- it comes _ on a day-to-day basis? in a sense it does. it comes up _ on a day-to-day basis? in a sense it does. it comes up over— on a day-to-day basis? in a sense it

does. it comes up over and - on a day-to-day basis? in a sense it does. it comes up over and again i on a day-to-day basis? in a sense it| does. it comes up over and again for a reason. there was never a big ceremony granting australia full independence in terms of political independence. of course the australian population often has retained long, personal, deep ties to the uk. 0n the one hand it takes place at a symbolic level, we are talking about national symbols that it is something australians feel in their day—to—day lives. the population is changing, it is no longer a predominately british and anglo—saxon country. how we manage those relationships and how australia's project themselves to the world more broadly, its allies, partners and friends, but also to the indo—pacific region which is often seen in australia has been the most significant region for australia now and in the future. how to represent australia in a way that

is most accessible, the most presentable to a region that is a colonised region where independent national identity really matters. and the indigenous faces that are going to be projected now, tell us about those. how important is it for those communities to be recognised? again, when australia often thinks about how to present itself to the world and to its own people, in recent years it had really become clear how much more of a recognition indigenous australians deserve and needin indigenous australians deserve and need in australia. at the moment there will be a referendum this year in australia for a voice to parliament, an advisory body that will communicate directly with parliament in order to say what indigenous australians want and what indigenous australians want and what indigenous australians want and what indigenous australians need. this

broader recognition and sort of political role indigenous australians have been playing over the past decades but particularly in the past decades but particularly in the last year or two has come to the forefront of the australian discussion. this is very much alive this year. i think this symbolic statement by putting an indigenous base instead of that of king charles on a $5 note is another step in the long process of shifting australia's identity from one focused on the uk to one more focused on the indigenous australia image in particular. now it's time for a look at the weather with carol. hello again. as we go through the next couple days and nights, it's going to be mild for the time of year till we get to later on saturday when it's going to turn that bit colder. the other thing about the weather for the next few days is it's going to be mostly dry. there is some patchy light rain and drizzle in the forecast and there's some heavier rain

today across scotland. you can see the mild yellows across the chart. look at the squeeze in the isobars. it's going to turn windier across the western isles later on. increasingly, the rain will become confined to the north—west. there will be a bit more cloud at times in western areas generally, producing some patchy light rain or some drizzle, but not all the time. some brighter breaks as well. but the lion's share of the sunshine today will be across some central and eastern areas. the black circles represent the average wind speeds. 0ur temperatures, 8 in lerwick, to 13 in london and norwich. temperatures at this time of year, we'd expect around about 7 in edinburgh, to 9 in london. through this evening and overnight, our weather front sinks south across scotland and northern ireland, as a weakening feature. as it gets into northern england, it starts to pivot because tomorrow it's going to be pushing northwards. ahead of it, you'll see a lot of clear skies, a few showers in scotland and also gales across the far north and northern isles. further south, we'll also have some clear skies and it's going to be a mild night. through tomorrow, this is our weather front which has pivoted, heading back towards the north—east

as a weak feature. so after a bright start in some eastern parts, you can see how this patchy rain moves across scotland, out of northern ireland and across northern england. further south, we're looking at brighter skies and also some sunshine. the white circles represent the average wind speed, so not particularly windy tomorrow with the wind easing across the far north. temperatures 7 to potentially 14 around the london area. then, beyond that, we've got the mild conditions on friday but, as we head on into saturday, this cold front is coming our way. as it sinks southwards across us all, it will bring some rain, but it will be weakening all the time. but look at the blues representing the cold air. but high pressure is still in charge, so even though it's going to be colder on sunday, it still is going to be fairly settled. but behind the weather front in scotland on saturday, there will be winteriness on the hills in the north of scotland later, potentially to lower levels but sunnier on sunday.

this is bbc news. the headlines... the bank of england is about to announce its latest interest rate decision — and they're expected to rise for the tenth time in a row. the oil giant shell reports record annual profits of £32 billion — the highest in its 115—year history. an apology from the head of the company that owns british gas after it emerged the company is force—fitting prepament meters in vulnerable homes. there is nothing that i can say that can express the horror i had when i heard this, when i saw this. it is completely unacceptable, that language is completely unacceptable.

the bank of england is about to announce the level of interest rates. they currently stand at 3.5%. analysts expect them to rise to li%. with me now to discuss this is the head of investment at the online investment service interactive investor — victoria scholar. forgive me if i keep looking at my scheme because i am looking out for the newsagency, and the bbc reports, but people have talked about 0.5% or 0.25% price of a. tide but people have talked about 0.5% or 0.25% price of a.— 0.25% price of a. we already heard from the us _ 0.25% price of a. we already heard from the us central— 0.25% price of a. we already heard from the us central bank— 0.25% price of a. we already heard from the us central bank last - 0.25% price of a. we already heard from the us central bank last night which raised rates by 0.25% but it looks like the bank of england will raise rates by 0.5%, as the central bank with defiant curtails of those inflationary pressures, inflation is

still stuck in double digits so the bank of england target is for inflation to be around 2% so there we have been seeing inflation eased a bit there is still a long way to go. tt a bit there is still a long way to i o, , a bit there is still a long way to ho, , a bit there is still a long way to go. it is confirmed the bank of eniland go. it is confirmed the bank of england has — go. it is confirmed the bank of england has now _ go. it is confirmed the bank of england has now raised - go. it is confirmed the bank of. england has now raised interest rates to li% from 3.5%, confirmed, the bank of england raising rates by 0.5% up to li% and that is what was expected. 0.5% up to 496 and that is what was ex-ected. ., , 0.596 up to 496 and that is what was ex-ected. ., , ., .,, , . expected. that is what was expected so a lot of this _ expected. that is what was expected so a lot of this has _ expected. that is what was expected so a lot of this has already _ expected. that is what was expected so a lot of this has already been - so a lot of this has already been priced into financial markets, the unknown is whether the bank of england goes next, thejury is out as to whether we will get 0.25% or 0.5%, the bank of england is treading a fine line at the moment, it was to try to bring inflation down under control but it doesn't want to induce unnecessary economic pain potentially tipping us into recession. , , pain potentially tipping us into recession-— pain potentially tipping us into recession. , , ., , ., recession. this is raising rates for the tenth time _ recession. this is raising rates for

the tenth time in _ recession. this is raising rates for the tenth time in a _ recession. this is raising rates for the tenth time in a row, - recession. this is raising rates for the tenth time in a row, rising - recession. this is raising rates for the tenth time in a row, rising to| the tenth time in a row, rising to 4%, to try to stem rising prices and takes the right to the highest since 2008. interest rates going up to the highest level now since 2008 and it will increase mortgage payments for homeowners and for those with loans at a time when many are still struggling at the moment but it helps savers. just on people with mortgages who perhaps are on track at rates or variable rates or having to renew them, what are they going to renew them, what are they going to be faced with now? tt is to be faced with now? it is estimated _ to be faced with now? it is estimated there _ to be faced with now? it is estimated there are - to be faced with now? te 3 estimated there are around 2 million people on variable rate mortgages so they will seek monthly repayments rise immediately, also about 350,000 on fixed term mortgages, set to expire this quarter is available have to move to new mortgage rates which will be a bit higher, so mortgage holders, it will be more

expensive repayments, largely, but it is a boost for savers, we are seeing savers rates go up but the sting in the tail is inflation is still sharply higher than savings rates so in real terms it is still difficult to say in this environment.- difficult to say in this environment. . ., �* environment. and the banks don't alwa s environment. and the banks don't always pass _ environment. and the banks don't always pass on — environment. and the banks don't always pass on the _ environment. and the banks don't always pass on the full _ environment. and the banks don't always pass on the full value - environment. and the banks don't always pass on the full value of. environment. and the banks don'tl always pass on the full value of the higher rates to customers. that always pass on the full value of the higher rates to customers.- higher rates to customers. that is ri . ht and higher rates to customers. that is right and when — higher rates to customers. that is right and when we _ higher rates to customers. that is right and when we look— higher rates to customers. that is right and when we look at - higher rates to customers. that is right and when we look at banks l higher rates to customers. that is| right and when we look at banks at the moment they have been doing very well because they have been charging more on their loans to customers but on the flip side they are not necessarily passing on those additional costs, benefits, to consumers, so we have seen banks do pretty well in this rising rate environment.— pretty well in this rising rate environment. , ., ., environment. the question of whether it has picked — environment. the question of whether it has picked is — environment. the question of whether it has picked is what _ environment. the question of whether it has picked is what we _ environment. the question of whether it has picked is what we were - it has picked is what we were talking about a couple of minutes

ago because the expectation is that rates could go higher now? it is having to pursue as tightening policy despite the backdrop of weak growth we saw the imf report giving

a pretty damning assessment the uk's economic outlook at the moment. 0bviously economic outlook at the moment. obviously the government and bank of england are trying to deal with that and this is part of it. tt is england are trying to deal with that and this is part of it.— and this is part of it. it is but essentially — and this is part of it. it is but essentially the _ and this is part of it. it is but essentially the biggest - and this is part of it. it is but i essentially the biggest problem and this is part of it. it is but - essentially the biggest problem the bank of england and the government are trying to deal with now is sky high inflation and that is why it is time to take these measures either by raising interest rates or raising taxation or cutting spending to try to bring those price levels down and thatis to bring those price levels down and that is weighing on our growth outlook. those imf forecasts were extremely dire suggesting we will perform even worse than russia but we have some other analysts a little bit more optimistic suggesting we could actually possibly narrowly stave off a recession. haifa could actually possibly narrowly stave off a recession. how much of this is to do _ stave off a recession. how much of this is to do with _ stave off a recession. how much of this is to do with what _ stave off a recession. how much of this is to do with what is _ stave off a recession. how much of this is to do with what is going - stave off a recession. how much of this is to do with what is going on i this is to do with what is going on with ukraine and russia and linked with ukraine and russia and linked with the kwasi kwarteng liz truss budget in the autumn? irate with the kwasi kwarteng liz truss budget in the autumn?— with the kwasi kwarteng liz truss budget in the autumn? we saw a huge s-ike in budget in the autumn? we saw a huge spike in mortgage _

budget in the autumn? we saw a huge spike in mortgage rates _ budget in the autumn? we saw a huge spike in mortgage rates after - budget in the autumn? we saw a huge spike in mortgage rates after the - spike in mortgage rates after the mini budget but a lot of the broad inflationary pressures in the uk are coming from overseas firstly because of the war in ukraine and secondly because a post—pandemic pent up supply chain issues that caused imbalance between supply and demand and prices to go up. faisal imbalance between supply and demand and prices to go up— and prices to go up. faisal islam is 'oinini and prices to go up. faisal islam is joining us- — and prices to go up. faisal islam is joining us. update _ and prices to go up. faisal islam is joining us. update us. _ and prices to go up. faisal islam is joining us. update us. 0.596- and prices to go up. faisal islam is joining us. update us. 0.596 rise i and prices to go up. faisal islam is. joining us. update us. 0.596 rise and interest rates _ joining us. update us. 0.596 rise and interest rates at _ joining us. update us. 0.596 rise and interest rates at a _ joining us. update us. 0.596 rise and interest rates at a 14 _ joining us. update us. 0.596 rise and interest rates at a 14 year _ joining us. update us. 0.596 rise and interest rates at a 14 year high - joining us. update us. 0.596 rise and interest rates at a 14 year high of. interest rates at a 14 year high of 4%, that was expected, it was a vote of 7—2, two members of the 9—member committee in the bank of england that decide on interest rates taught interest rate should not gone up but seven voted for it so they have gone up seven voted for it so they have gone up to 4% and that is a 14 year high, it is meant to try and hammer down on inflation. what is perhaps more intriguing is the change in the language in the account of why they made that decision, where they lose some of the more forceful language

about how rates have to go up and up into the future, they lose that and suggest pretty clearly that rates would have to go up only if inflationary pressures proved to be more persistent than they expect. that is quite a shift and it suggests we are at or very close to the peak in interest rates, four and a half % or maybe 4% where we are right now, it depends, that is interesting stuff. they also say the anticipated recession forecast in november lasting eight quarters, two years, being pretty deep in terms of historical context will be significantly milder, still expecting a recession, it will last five quarters which sounds like quite a long time, a year and three months, but it will be more shallow. so that is good news. the reason why thatis so that is good news. the reason why

that is the case is gas prices are far lower than they were. those interest rates are set to be lower than had been anticipated and workers are finding their incomes still end theirjob situation better than they had expected. so that is relatively speaking better than they had thought. there is a twist, there are ways as with economists in the bank of england which is that you recovery out of this energy shock recession, although that will be milder, it is quite sluggish and the reason why it is these socks that have hit the economy and that they expressly talk about brexit, the corbett pandemic, the energy shock, the hit from that is proving more enduring than had been anticipated, on the pandemic we have heard about the work force of the united kingdom not returning to full strength, we think it is because people in their 50s retired early and are not coming

back, that is a permanent and enduring hit to the economy. 0n brexit they have recalculated the official trade figures and settled on an adjusted basis the head to trade is happening more quickly than expected, also affecting the economy. investment levels are lower. so although you have a more shallow hit from the energy shock at the recovery over two or three years is a big priority for the government and opposition, it looks quite sluggish and in fact the size of the economy which right now is smaller thanit economy which right now is smaller than it was just before the pandemic, they anticipate in this report we won't exceed the size of the economy at the end of 2019 until 2026. it was promised the economy would have a roaring 20 20s, it certainly seems of this forecast is right that that is a lost pap decade and more. tt right that that is a lost pap decade and more. .. ., right that that is a lost pap decade and more. ,, ., . ., and more. if the ukraine war continues— and more. if the ukraine war continues how _ and more. if the ukraine war continues how much -

and more. if the ukraine war continues how much can - and more. if the ukraine war continues how much can the| and more. if the ukraine war i continues how much can the uk government do to bring down inflations and therefore eventually bring interest rates down? to things iioin on bring interest rates down? to things going on there. _ bring interest rates down? to things going on there, firstly _ bring interest rates down? to things going on there, firstly what - bring interest rates down? to things going on there, firstly what europe i going on there, firstly what europe is a whole has shown, the eu, probably more, and the uk as well, as i can sit out even a significant cut to energy supplies from russia, they can have the storage capacity and even when russia supplies go down, energy supplies can still be there enough and therefore prices have come down markedly notjust in europe but for all of us including the uk. it has brought energy prices down in the markets and it will eventually, bring down energy bills. so there is that factor but there is also the factor that obviously it is uncertain what will happen between ukraine and russia, if that were get significantly worse that is a big

factor of uncertainty which is recognised here but if things stay where they are, if the markets are right about where energy prices will go over the next 12 months, it should bring down inflation and should bring down inflation and should bring down energy bills and should bring down energy bills and should help the difficultjob of the government and the bank of england have to do in terms of this trade—off of sluggish economy and still high rates of inflation. that is the dilemma, the tricky balancing act they have been trying to pull up here and it has been made a little bit easier in a medium term but because of the test of the economy that was assessed by the forecasted might be more difficult. we that was assessed by the forecasted might be more difficult.— might be more difficult. we have seen a lot of— might be more difficult. we have seen a lot of strikes _ might be more difficult. we have seen a lot of strikes in _ might be more difficult. we have seen a lot of strikes in the - might be more difficult. we have seen a lot of strikes in the publicj seen a lot of strikes in the public sector, the government are saying they don't want to yield to those demands because of inflation, interest rates go up and inflation stabilises a bit, what does that do to public sector pay demands and the government response? the government would an ue government response? the government would argue that — government response? the government would argue that it _ government response? the government would argue that it is _

government response? the government would argue that it is this, _ government response? the government would argue that it is this, at _ government response? the government would argue that it is this, at the - would argue that it is this, at the moment the bank of england dropping hints that interest rates might have to go up much further, but there is a big f to that, if inflation pressures proved persistent they might change their mind and interest rates might go further. the government was likely to jump on that and say that is exactly why we think public sector pay should remain moderate because we don't want the inflationaryjeannie that is clearly out there in the economy, we don't want that flame to be lit or turn into inferno because everybody is asking for double—digit wage rises, that is their argument, obviously much argued with by the unions, the bank of england about a year ago i spoke to the governor and he said to me people should perhaps try away from asking for excessive pay rises, he got slapped down at the time by number 10 and now i think they would agree very much with that argument but he has tended to shy away from trying to have a comment on political issues like the state of the strikes. we will be speaking to him later so we will put

that to him, so that is an interesting dimension to this which is the extent with which wage pressures are spreading around the economy, affecting prices. lithe economy, affecting prices. one moment. _ economy, affecting prices. one moment. iust _ economy, affecting prices. one moment, just want _ economy, affecting prices. one moment, just want to - economy, affecting prices. one moment, just want to say goodbye to viewers on bbc two. thanks for watching. stay with us on the news channel. sorry to interrupt. i wanted to ask you, we have had a response from the chancellor to the bank of england interest rate decision, he says inflation is a stealth tax, the biggest tax for living standard so we support the action of the bank today, so we succeed in cutting inflation in half this year. people are still facing, evenif this year. people are still facing, even if inflation slows down, much higher costs and now they are facing still higher interest rates, if redoing a mortgage or trying to buy a house, this will be felt in everyone's pockets, isn't it? yes,

so we have _ everyone's pockets, isn't it? yes, so we have to _ everyone's pockets, isn't it? yes, so we have to be _ everyone's pockets, isn't it? yes, so we have to be careful- everyone's pockets, isn't it? yes, so we have to be careful of- everyone's pockets, isn't it? yes, so we have to be careful of the i so we have to be careful of the message of the recession being less mild,, it is less bad news, clearly the interest rate rises are weighing on the housing market, savers are getting returns they have almost this for over a decade and it is a complicated series of moving parts in the economy. i think the government is keen, we have heard from the prime minister and chancellor saying this is their mission and they want to take lots of credit for the halving of inflation, it will still be going up and going up by an amount that would have been considered huge in any other circumstance at the end of the year by four or 5% but that is obviously a lot less bad than 10 or 11% which is where we have been but it doesn't mean prices are coming down, just that the rate of increase of prices is lower. so anyone is going to the shops are looking at their energy bill expecting it to be

markedly lower in the next year it is not what we mean by lower inflation, we mean the rate at which they are rising and starting to slow down, that is what the target here and they see this great move as on a path towards meeting that target and getting it down from 10%, unthinkable for many years, down to more like 2%, but they also feel that they can do that perhaps with fewer rate rises than we had previously expected. just finally, . iven previously expected. just finally, given inflation _ previously expected. just finally, given inflation has _ previously expected. just finally, given inflation has been - previously expected. just finally, given inflation has been such - previously expected. just finally, given inflation has been such a i given inflation has been such a concern for so many people, why have they not moved to increase interest rates more because that would have had a sharper effect, is itjust to worry about tipping people over the edge for example, house repossessions on mortgages? the riiht repossessions on mortgages? the ri . ht to repossessions on mortgages? tt2 right to change as you get on a day like today aren't really designed to deal with the inflation rate you have today. it is actually designed to try and work out what is happening in a year or two years'

time and manage that process and in particular to stop high inflation becoming an expectation because when it becomes an expectation it becomes so fulfilling, people start asking for double—digit wage rises, prices go for double—digit wage rises, prices 9° up for double—digit wage rises, prices go up by double digits, it becomes the inflationaryjeannie out of the bottle and that is what they are trying to stop, they haven't prevented inflation heading from 10%, it will come down and they are trying to make sure that is as quick as possible, but what they are talking about and trying to do with these moods is prevented being embedded in the system for years to come. .,, ., , ., , embedded in the system for years to come. ., , ., , ., come. those more question but i am told i have to — come. those more question but i am told i have to let _ come. those more question but i am told i have to let you _ come. those more question but i am told i have to let you go. _ come. those more question but i am told i have to let you go. thank- told i have to let you go. thank you. europe's biggest energy firm, shell, has reported record annual profits of nearly $40 billion in 2022, more than double what it made in the previous year. the profits are the biggest in the firm's history — boosted by higher energy prices since the start of the ukraine war. shell has already said it will pay tax in the uk for the first time since 2017 —

as a result of the government's windfall tax. let's take a closer look at the figures shell released this morning. it said its adjusted earnings had more than doubled to $39.9 billion — around £32.2 billion. the company said it expected to pay an additional $2.3 billion in tax on its 2022 earnings as a result of the eu's windfall tax, and the uk's energy profits levy. it returned 26 billion to shareholders in 2022, through share buy—backs and dividends. it plans to spend a further $4 billion on buying back its own stock in the next three months. buying back shares is a way of increasing their value in the market. but the company invested only $3.5 billion on renewables and low carbon technologies in the last year. our business editor simonjack has more. this is notjust the most money that shell has ever made in its 115 year history. by my estimation is the biggest profit ever recorded by a uk based company.

$40 billion. £32 billion. we have had rocketing oil and gas prices. this is 2022 and we already had higher oil and gas prices as the world emerged from its covid—induced coma and the demand came back and then they were rocketing when you had russia invade ukraine and things like russian oil and gas supplies were either shut off or shunned by international buyers making the market, people, a lot of demand for what was left. that is a context for this. i doubt they will beat that next year because profits are coming down but there is, inflation at a 40 year high, people's energy bills have doubled, trebled in some cases, and so there is an understandable outrage in some quarters that they think that shell should be paying much more tax. weirdly for the last five years shell has paid zero tax in the uk, for two reasons, one is 90% of their money comes

from outside the uk, made and taxed elsewhere, the gulf of mexico, indonesia, brazil, etc, only a tiny bit comes from the uk and they are allowed to offset investments they make in oil and gas projects here, offset decommissioning old oil rigs against those profits so they end up with no profit at all and not paying a tax, they will pay some taxes here in 2022 and i expect them to pay hundreds of millions of uk tax next year but their numbers will look small compared to the vast profits and people will be concerned about that. joining me now is the renewable energy entrepeneur and founder of the energy firm ecotricity, dale vince. thanks forjoining us. what do you make of these profits that we are seeing today?— make of these profits that we are seeini toda ? , ., ., , ., seeing today? they are outstanding. it -roves seeing today? they are outstanding. lt proves what _ seeing today? they are outstanding. lt proves what a _ seeing today? they are outstanding. it proves what a lot _ seeing today? they are outstanding. it proves what a lot of _ seeing today? they are outstanding. it proves what a lot of people - seeing today? they are outstanding. it proves what a lot of people were i it proves what a lot of people were saying last year when rishi sunak was a councillor and he came out belatedly and i would say

begrudgingly with the windfall tax but it wasn't good enough, it didn't start until lastjuly, we are already halfway through the energy crisis by then and so no profits before 2022 were touched, we can see the proof in these bumper profits from shell and all of this money is coming from consumer energy bills, there are two sides of the coin, consumers are paying record high prices for energy, the government has spent nearly 100 trying to subsidise as an oil and gas companies are running away will tend to plenty pounds worth money. idinihat to plenty pounds worth money. what do ou to plenty pounds worth money. what do you think — to plenty pounds worth money. what do you think should _ to plenty pounds worth money. what do you think should happen as a result because we know obviously we have heard cals per eye windfall taxes but energy companies say the numbers go up and down and this, we can't necessarily sustain or are likely to sustain the sorts of profits and we have to invest ourselves. profits and we have to invest ourselves-— profits and we have to invest ourselves. these are windfall hrofits, ourselves. these are windfall profits. they _ ourselves. these are windfall profits, they weren't - ourselves. these are windfall profits, they weren't planned j ourselves. these are windfall - profits, they weren't planned for, they don't need them, they shouldn't have them, they should come back to

the country where the money has come from. we make 50% of around gas from our own north sea but we allow global commodity markets to set the price of that. we pay 10 times more for it during the energy crisis and we did before and all that was windfall profits to oil and gas companies, we shouldn't have let that happen. th companies, we shouldn't have let that happen-— companies, we shouldn't have let that ha- hen. , ., ., ., that happen. in terms of the amount that happen. in terms of the amount that they are — that happen. in terms of the amount that they are spending _ that happen. in terms of the amount that they are spending on _ that they are spending on renewables, i am sure you'll say they should spend more. where do you draw a line, what sort of percentage of it should be spent on that sector now? , , ., , .., , now? interesting question because shell are in — now? interesting question because shell are in the _ now? interesting question because shell are in the news _ now? interesting question because shell are in the news today - now? interesting question because shell are in the news today also - now? interesting question because shell are in the news today also for this, there is an organisation in the us are called global witness that have taken a complaint to the securities exchange commissioner who runs the american stock exchange to say shell are misleading shareholders on the stock market by claiming to spend 10% of all capital expenditure on renewable energy investment when the real figure they would say is 1.5% which is obviously nowhere near enough. the global

figure last yearfor all nowhere near enough. the global figure last year for all oil and gas companies wasjust 5% figure last year for all oil and gas companies was just 5% and is growing at a rate of about i% a year. this is not going to work for us. we need a transition from oil and gas investment and production and i% a year swapping from that investment in renewables is nowhere near enough. it has to change rapidly now. we have to go for 100% the next 10 years. now. we have to go for 10096 the next 10 ears. ., . .. now. we have to go for 10096 the next 10 ears. ., . ,, , now. we have to go for 10096 the next 10 ears. , , .,�* 10 years. hack these companies don't 0 herate 10 years. hack these companies don't operate iust — 10 years. hack these companies don't operate just in _ 10 years. hack these companies don't operate just in britain, _ 10 years. hack these companies don't operate just in britain, they _ 10 years. hack these companies don't operate just in britain, they are - operatejust in britain, they are global companies, so there might be an argument that why should uk members of the public benefit from something that is a global company? uk members of the public right now are having a death benefit from something that is a global market in oil and gas, we make 50% of our own gas but we are paying... we shouldn't let international markets at the price, we do live in a globalised world but that is having a negative impact on our people. find

a negative impact on our people. and the whole question of when full tax it is an easy idea to understand in a headline term, but we don't live in a society like that, companies have good years and bad years, you have good years and bad years, you have to encourage companies to go out and take risks and sometimes they will be profitable but others they will be profitable but others they won't be. t they will be profitable but others they won't be— they won't be. i don't think exploring _ they won't be. i don't think exploring for _ they won't be. i don't think exploring for oil _ they won't be. i don't think exploring for oil and - they won't be. i don't think exploring for oil and gas i they won't be. i don't think exploring for oil and gas is | they won't be. i don't think. exploring for oil and gas is a they won't be. i don't think- exploring for oil and gas is a risk, i don't think it has been a risk for many decades because the world depends on them, we have to look at how we set up as a society because the huge gains from the relatively small numbers of shareholders of these big oil and gas companies are coming at the real cost of living pain of millions, tines of millions of people in our country and around the world, why should we allow that to happen? the world, why should we allow that to ha- hen? ., .. the world, why should we allow that to ha- hen? ., ,, i. the world, why should we allow that to ha-nen? ., ,, , the world, why should we allow that to ha-nen? ., ~' , . the northern ireland secretary chris heaton—harris is due to announce

in the next hour or so whether he'll order a public inquiry into the 1998 0magh bombing, the biggest single atrocity in the troubles which killed 29 people and injured hundreds of others. the attack was carried out by dissident republicans. in 2021 the high court said there should be investigations into whether intelligence information could have prevented the real ira attack. 0ur ireland correspondent chris page is in 0magh. just tell us a bit more. in terms of lives lost. — just tell us a bit more. in terms of lives lost, the _ just tell us a bit more. in terms of lives lost, the bombing _ just tell us a bit more. in terms of lives lost, the bombing here i just tell us a bit more. in terms of lives lost, the bombing here in i just tell us a bit more. in terms of| lives lost, the bombing here in the town of 0magh in county tyrone in august 1998 was the worst single atrocity of the conflict in northern ireland. 29 people were killed, including a woman who was pregnant with twins. the dissident republican group known as the real ira who were opposed to the peace process and a car bomb just down the street from where i am speaking to you now, on a busy saturday afternoon. ever since

then a number of the families have been campaigning forjustice, known has been successfully prosecuted and there has been a long—running legal case brought by michael gallagher whose son was killed in the bombing, he and some other relatives want there to be a full public inquiry into what happened here in 0magh. in 2021 about 18 months ago a judge at the high court in belfast said at the high court in belfast said at the end of the case that there was a prospect the bombing could have been prevented, in essence this is about whether intelligence information could have been pieced together by the security forces on both sides of the irish border and whether they could have been a campaign of disruption in the judges words in order to stop that attack from being carried out. so the government has been under a legal duty to respond to that court ruling, we are expecting the northern ireland secretary chris heaton—harris to make a statement to parliament in the next hour or so to

announce what he has decided. the judge didn't specify what form a new investigation should take, but he did say there should be a new investigation and it should look at those elements around whether the bombing could have been prevented. so as far as the family's campaigning fora so as far as the family's campaigning for a public inquiry go they say it is a series of hearings which the evidence will be heard in public to it which will deliver the best result but they have also been emphasising this morning that this is not about shifting the blame for the bombing, they say the blame will always lie with those paramilitaries who planted the bomb but they do say they think lessons can be learned from what has happened here in 0magh and from what happened in the run—up to the bomb attack so it is an anxious wait this morning i think for michael gallagher and there's relatives but in the next 60 or 90 minutes they should know what the

government has decided to do in response to the campaign and a legal judgment that they want. she, judgment that they want. a long—running high—profile judgment that they want. a long—running high—profile case judgment that they want. a long—running high—profile case they are. thanks. we will be back with you for an update. ben rich has got the latest weather. it is looking cloudy for many of us. this picture sent in western scotland earlier on today. not quite that gloomy everywhere. a little bit of sunshine out there. the very best of sunshine out there. the very best of that right now is across parts of eastern england, this is a scene right now, a pretty cloudy scene, some spots of drizzle around some hills in the west of england and wales a bit of drizzle across northern ireland and heavier rain which will continue to fall in the north and north—west of scotland. it is really piling up across the north—west highlands. the winds will be picking up eras well through the day. but it is mild out there, 11-13, day. but it is mild out there, 11—13, and usually mild for this point in early february. this evening and tonight we will see a

band of cloud and increasingly light and patchy rain putting little further southwards, windy for a time in the north of scotland but a very mild night, 7—10. tomorrow this panda cloud and patchy rain will push back north—eastwards again, something a little brighter to the south, another mile day on saturday, colder but brighter sunday.

hello. this is bbc news. the headlines... the bank of england raises interest rates from 3.5% to 4% in a bid to tackle inflation. shal reports record profits, double the year

before. british gas suspends enforcement of prepayment meters. its chief executive has apologised. there is nothing i can say that can express the horror i had when i heard this and saw this. it is completely unacceptable, the language is unacceptable. the bank of england is making its announcement about interest rates. let's listen in. welcome to the press conference. today we have increased the bank rate by 0.5 percentage points to 4%. i will start to explain why the have done this. the outlook for inflation... since the november report we have seen the first signs that inflation has turned the corner. annual consumer price inflation has come down from 11.1% inflation has come down from 11.1% in october to 10.5% in december.

below where we thought it would be in the november report. we think it will continue to full and more rapidly in the second half of the year. this has a lot to do with energy prices. last year's very large increases are beginning to drop out of the annual calculation of the consumer price index. wholesale gas spot prices have fallen by 50% since november and gas future prices have also come down markedly. the chart shows the npc central projection for inflation which is conditional on a market implied bank rate peaking at around 4.5% by the middle of this year. the central projection, consumer price inflation. around 10% by the end of year. the purple bars on the chart illustrates a sizeable part of the full can be explained by direct effects from energy prices. however the expected fall of inflation is

notjust the expected fall of inflation is not just about energy the expected fall of inflation is notjust about energy prices. global price pressures are easing a supply chain disruptions are lessened across most of the world. we therefore expect headline inflation to full rapidly based on lower external cost prep pressures more broadly. this will alleviate the real shock we have had to national income as a country. while external pressures are easing, other indicators of inflationary pressures have proved fun than expected. the labour market remains tight by historical standards and annual private sector pay great increase to 7.2% in the three months to november. as you can see in this chart, while full goods inflation has fallen other inflation rose to a high in december about what we expected in the november monetary

policy report. bank staff project services inflation will rise further in the near term, consistent with the strength in wages and other costs affecting service sector companies. it is price and wage setting dynamics in the uk economy that ultimately determine how long it takes to determine inflation to target on a sustainable basis. while we are confident inflation will come down this year, developments over the coming quarters will be crucial in determining how quickly overall inflationary pressures are based. judging sustainability requires us to look further ahead. that is where uncertainties increase. in the monetary policy committee's best collective judgment when the most likely outcome is an increasing degree of economic slack alongside reduced pressures means inflation wilful below the 2% target from around spring 2020 for next year. besides the market implied rate,

this is conditional on wholesale energy prices following their projected curves. in other words the forecast suggests inflation will come down and it wilful quite sharply. events may not unfold in this way. with inflation currently about 10% we are in uncharted territory. energy prices may not full by as much as currently expected in financial markets and evenif expected in financial markets and even if they did a period of very high inflation could play into wage inflation. the tightness in the labour market reinforces this risk. we think the risks around a central projection for inflation showed in the chart asking significantly to the chart asking significantly to the upside and more so than at any time in the history of the monetary policy committee. our decision to

increase bank rate today, despite a weak outlook in central projection, reflexes and certainties. uncertainties over the extent to which external and domestic inflationary pressures develop and wider uncertainties over the trajectory of the economy and inflationary dynamics further ahead. we had done a lot on rates already. the full effect of that is still to come through. it is too soon to declare victory just yet. inflationary pressures are still there. we can see that in the data and hear it from our agents. we need to be absolutely sure we really are turning the corner on inflation. that is why we have increased the bank rate today and why we will of course continue to monitor the database carefully. i want to say a few more things about the key judgments underlined in the forecast. these are important. the first keyjudgment is about

potential supply. the level of output the economy can sustain without generating too much inflation. over recent years the uk economy has been hit by a series of significant economic shocks that have affected potential supply. this includes the change in trading relationship with the european union, the coronavirus pandemic and developers in global energy prices relating to the brutal war by russia on ukraine and its people. these shocks have held back productivity and labour supply. we describe our assessment of these shocks in the monetary policy report published today. i will point to one important part of the story. as this chart shows, since the start of the coronavirus pandemic we have seen a large increase in another people who do not take an active part in the labour market. some of this rising economic inactivity is caused by the population ageing. as the chart

shows those age 65 and above the for a third of the increase, shown in the blue bars. there has also been a marked increase in activity among 60 to 65—year—olds, the orange bars. many say they retired early, making a choice about the life they wanted to live. at the same time any report they are affected by long—term illness. a number of these people semi—are unlikely to come back in the labour market. this significant and lingering fall in labour supply weighs on the uk economy's potential. you can see this directly in this chart. the white solid line is the participation rate, the share of people over 16 taking part in the labour market. it fell sharply with the onset of coronavirus, which is not unusual by international standards. it is not reversed, which is unusual. we think this will take some time to unwind so we have

revised our estimates. persistent effects of coronavirus adding to population ageing. as the next chart shows, as a result of the rise in inactivity combined with effective shocks i briefly mentioned, the level of potential supply has not regained its pre—pandemic level. supply growth is weak by historical standards, hence we assume the level only covers gradually. this is the first keyjudgment underlying our february forecast. the second key judgment is that the squeeze on real incomes from high energy prices and the path of market interest rates continue to weigh on demand. economic output is expected to full slightly throughout 2023 ending the 2024. this is nevertheless a much shallower decline than expected in the november monetary policy report. this chart, which we have used a

recent press conferences, shows the projected downturn in the economy, while still technically a recession is now significantly milder than past recessions. that is the purple solid line, by the way. the peak to trough all of domestic output in the pipeline is less than 1%, compared with 3% in previous recessions. that is the yellow and red lines respectively. in part the smaller decline in output reflects the falling energy prices. related to that the moderation of rates on new mortgages from the elevated levels we saw in the autumn. the path of the shallower downturn reflects a reassessment of consumption relating to labour and earnings. the committee now expects a weakening in

labour demand to be met to a larger extent by a reduction in vacancies and hours worked and to a less extent by an increase in redundancies and unemployment. in turn households may worry less about the risk ofjob losses, which is likely to result in lower precautionary saving and higher consumption than previously assumed. this takes me to their third key judgment, that over the forecast period, what starts as excess demand becomes excess apply. you can see that in this charter where we have added their projected level of output to the estimated path of potential supply. notwithstanding the reassessment of outlook for demand, continued headwinds lead to an increasing degree of economic slack emerging from the second quarter of this year despite the weak outlook for supply. our fourth keyjudgment is on inflation. in the

central projection, as i have described the increasing degree of economic slack along with reduced pressures leaves inflation to full below 2% in the second half of the forecast. the committee has retained a judgment from previous forecast that given the pressure from wage growth, inflation will be somewhat more persistent than the balance of supply and demand alone would suggest. this pushes up inflation a little in the central projection. while there are still —— while this still leaves inflation below target, there are still risks around this projection. if wholesale energy prices remain at current levels, for example, consumer price inflation would be nearly one percentage point higher than towards the end of the forecast. domestic wage and price dynamics could prove more significant than central projection suggests. this will be a key

determinant of whether the risks materialise. to finish, this takes me back to the monetary policy decision today. headline consumer price inflation has begun to edge back and is likely to fall sharply over the rest of the year. this is of course very welcome. however the labour market remains tight and domestic price wage pressures have been stronger than expected, suggesting risks of greater persistence and underlying inflation. the extent to which inflationary pressures is will depend on evolution of the economy, including the impact of this american increases of bank rates so far. there are considerable uncertainties the outlet. we will continue to monitor closely indications of persistent inflationary pressures, including the tightness of labour market conditions and the behaviour of wage growth and services inflation. if they were —— as if there were to be

evidence of more persistent pressures, further tightening of monetary policy would be required. further ahead, the committee can adjust bank rate as necessary to return inflation to be 2% target sustainably. we will be happy to take your questions. thank you. usual processable questions. wait till the microphone comes round. state your name and media outlet. we'll kick things off. thank you. fin we'll kick things off. thank you. on the language you just mentioned, if persistent— the language you just mentioned, if persistent pressures were to materialise, can we conclude from this that _ materialise, can we conclude from this that the assumption or presumption could be rates might have peaked unless you get worse than expected news? | have peaked unless you get worse than expected news?— have peaked unless you get worse than expected news? i think the way i would than expected news? i think the way iwould nut than expected news? i think the way i would put that _ than expected news? i think the way i would put that is, _ than expected news? i think the way i would put that is, we _ than expected news? i think the way i would put that is, we see _ than expected news? i think the way i would put that is, we see from i than expected news? i think the way i would put that is, we see from the | i would put that is, we see from the statement that we had changed the

language used. that is changed in two respect. in the previous language we had a presumption that if the economy evolved as the forecast suggested, that is in november, we expected there to be a further rate increase. also that word borstal. we have changed both those points. i think that reflects the fact we have a combination of what i would call... we have seen a turning of the corner but it is very early days and the risks are very large. it is really that that i think shapes where we go from here. if those risks emerge and if we continue to get over shoots as we have seen in particularly wage data and particularly wage settlement data and services inflation, then we will have to respond to that because that will be evidence these risks are crystallising. if of course the

forecast, the economy were to evolve very much as the central case of the forecast like we would have to re—evaluate as we always do. you re-evaluate as we always do. you will have seen _ re-evaluate as we always do. you will have seen that _ re—evaluate as we always do. you will have seen that we stressed that more _ will have seen that we stressed that more persistent pace and as a governor— more persistent pace and as a governor said, the risks are still to the _ governor said, the risks are still to the upside. i do not think it is clear. _ to the upside. i do not think it is clear. not— to the upside. i do not think it is clear, not obvious to me looking at this in— clear, not obvious to me looking at this in what— clear, not obvious to me looking at this in what we have written that somehow — this in what we have written that somehow we know we have got to a point _ somehow we know we have got to a point where — somehow we know we have got to a point where there is a peak or even that their— point where there is a peak or even that their next made is equally likety— that their next made is equally likely in— that their next made is equally likely in one direction or the other~ — likely in one direction or the other. the committee is still very watchful — other. the committee is still very watchful. the signs are persistent. we had _ watchful. the signs are persistent. we had a _ watchful. the signs are persistent. we had a forecast relative to which the risks— we had a forecast relative to which the risks are very clearly and very significantly skewed to the upside. so i would — significantly skewed to the upside. so i would put it with that sort of edge _ so i would put it with that sort of edge to— so i would put it with that sort of edge to it — so i would put it with that sort of edge to it. you were right that increasingly over time, given the degree _ increasingly over time, given the

degree to — increasingly over time, given the degree to which we have already raised _ degree to which we have already raised interest rates, this didn't happen— raised interest rates, this didn't happen these data become more prominent and decisions become more sensitive _ prominent and decisions become more sensitive he _ prominent and decisions become more sensitive. ., ., sensitive. he mentioned about inflation easing _ sensitive. he mentioned about inflation easing off. _ sensitive. he mentioned about inflation easing off. we - sensitive. he mentioned about inflation easing off. we have i sensitive. he mentioned about i inflation easing off. we have seen on commodity prices. food inflation, which is obviously an essential to all households, is at a record high. wondering how it feeds into your estimation of painful households. also, as your model take into account the reduction in government support for businesses planning in in april on energy support? what we're hearing from a lot of businesses as they are very nervous about it and why redundancies have been very low so far, once a help is removed or lessened, they might have take action. == removed or lessened, they might have take action. ., ., , . take action. -- want that help. we do. it is

take action. -- want that help. we do- it is a — take action. -- want that help. we do. it is a complicated _ take action. -- want that help. we do. it is a complicated picture i take action. -- want that help. we | do. it is a complicated picture when you at— do. it is a complicated picture when you at the _ do. it is a complicated picture when you at the look effects of the sharp fall in— you at the look effects of the sharp fall in energy prices, the government support package which is in place _ government support package which is in place up _ government support package which is in place up until april, i think i am right— in place up until april, i think i am right in— in place up until april, i think i am right in saying and how those things— am right in saying and how those things interact month by month. i think— things interact month by month. i think i_ things interact month by month. i think i am — things interact month by month. i think i am right in saying that a course — think i am right in saying that a course at — think i am right in saying that a course at the moment the level of household — course at the moment the level of household energy prices has been fixed _ household energy prices has been fixed by— household energy prices has been fixed by that feeling that is put on. fixed by that feeling that is put on when— fixed by that feeling that is put on. when the ceiling comes off under the current— on. when the ceiling comes off under the current prices, there might be one month — the current prices, there might be one month gap where prices are and then we _ one month gap where prices are and then we would expect prices to come down _ then we would expect prices to come down much _ then we would expect prices to come down much more according to the 0fgem _ down much more according to the 0fgem pap, which would reflect the ofgem pap, which would reflect the niarket_ 0fgem pap, which would reflect the market curve. i would just go back to something i said early on in my remarks, — to something i said early on in my remarks, that is also an important part of— remarks, that is also an important part of the — remarks, that is also an important part of the story that inflation falls — part of the story that inflation falls more rapidly in the second half addition and it does in the first half— half addition and it does in the first half of this year. a big part of that— first half of this year. a big part of that is— first half of this year. a big part of that is inflation is an annual

calculation. you have to relate all of this— calculation. you have to relate all of this back— calculation. you have to relate all of this back to what happened last year~ _ of this back to what happened last ear. , . ~' , of this back to what happened last ear. , a , ., of this back to what happened last ear. , .~' , ., ., ., of this back to what happened last ear. , ., , year. very quickly on food. there is a i-rah year. very quickly on food. there is a graph and — year. very quickly on food. there is a graph and report. _ year. very quickly on food. there is a graph and report, 2.4, _ year. very quickly on food. there is a graph and report, 2.4, which i year. very quickly on food. there is a graph and report, 2.4, which has| a graph and report, 2.4, which has some of the underlying wholesale commodity prices. we do not forecast the components of inflation beyond the components of inflation beyond the very near term. i cannot tell you what the forecasting bodies overall in terms of food process. these are in dollar terms, the same is true in sterling. very steep rises in agricultural commodity prices, 30% kind of thing, during 2021. they have sort of comeback down and level down since. in time one would expect these very high rates of food inflation to start dissipating and prices to level off. you are right, a big part of

inflation currently has our more generally these prices of global trading goods. tt generally these prices of global trading goods-— generally these prices of global trading goods. generally these prices of global tradini ioods. ., ., ,, ., ., trading goods. if we look at what i call the big _ trading goods. if we look at what i call the big three _ trading goods. if we look at what i call the big three external- trading goods. if we look at what i call the big three external shocks| call the big three external shocks we have — call the big three external shocks we have seen, festival the supply chain— we have seen, festival the supply chain shock post covid, then the energy— chain shock post covid, then the energy shop and the feed shock. they are at— energy shop and the feed shock. they are at different phases of evolution. the global supply shop is coming _ evolution. the global supply shop is coming off— evolution. the global supply shop is coming off and has been for the last year~ _ coming off and has been for the last year. energy, we had talked about. we see _ year. energy, we had talked about. we see it _ year. energy, we had talked about. we see it now coming off but it is at a much — we see it now coming off but it is at a much earlier stage. ben is right — at a much earlier stage. ben is right we — at a much earlier stage. ben is right. we have a situation where we see at— right. we have a situation where we see at commodity price level things flattening _ see at commodity price level things flattening out that we have not seen it coming _ flattening out that we have not seen it coming through to the consumer price _ it coming through to the consumer price index — it coming through to the consumer price index. —— we have a chart which _ price index. —— we have a chart which shows— price index. —— we have a chart which shows that food price inflation _ which shows that food price inflation is contributing more and more _ inflation is contributing more and more to— inflation is contributing more and more to the overall level of

inflation _ more to the overall level of inflation-— more to the overall level of inflation. . , ., ., inflation. as a committee we are acutely conscious, _ inflation. as a committee we are acutely conscious, particularly i inflation. as a committee we are | acutely conscious, particularly for poorer households, their share with their consumption that is food and energy, these necessities. we are very conscious of the challenges that are being faced. your point on redundancies is exactly right in terms of where their data has got to so far. we are forecasting a pick—up in unemployment from the current, very low levels. one of the drivers for why we have a more... it is still technically in recession. i think we have a peak to trough full in gdp now ofjust under 1%. it might either technical definition of recession but it is much milder, as andrew was saying and we previously

heard. a key driver of why it is milder is we have changed our judgment on where unemployment... how much unemployment will rise. we still had it rising three this year but it now arises by the end of the forecast period to just over 5% whereas back in november, we had it rising to somewhere over 6%. things are going to be challenging and tough but the recession that we still have in the data is milder thanit still have in the data is milder than it was. tie still have in the data is milder than it was.— still have in the data is milder than it was. he attached in your 0 nienin than it was. he attached in your opening remarks _ than it was. he attached in your opening remarks on _ than it was. he attached in your opening remarks on the - than it was. he attached in your| opening remarks on the reasons behind the rise in activity in the labour market. —— as you touched stop you set your agents have identified little sign of people returning to the labour market due

to cost of living pressures. does that mean efforts to get people back into work may prove futile? what do you think is the best way to approach this? late you think is the best way to approach this?— you think is the best way to a- roach this? . ., ., , , ., approach this? we do not presume to be the expert — approach this? we do not presume to be the expert on _ approach this? we do not presume to be the expert on micro _ approach this? we do not presume to be the expert on micro economics i approach this? we do not presume to be the expert on micro economics of| be the expert on micro economics of the labour market in that sense. i would also say, i think, from the point of view of government policy it is early days. this issue is really —— has really surfaced in the last month. in terms of policies in the labour market there is clear intention by the government to do more. early days at this stage. i think what we see and we get this from talking to a lot of people, as i said, festival, there are two things going on. the population is ageing. —— as i said first of all. that would have happened irrespective of covid for instance.

we had to take that into account. it would have happened anyway, as it were. the second thing we observe in the uk, this is not the case in other countries, what was a fall in participation in the early part of covid has not reversed course. that is what makes the uk standout really. what i would say is i think evidence certainly suggest that while there is an increasing part of the population that when asked why it is not returning to the labour market cites long—term health conditions, i do not think that is the approximate reason given for leaving the labour force. there is this time gap in that sense. it is important it seems to me that we know a lot more collectively from a public policy point of view about why this is happening and what to be done to reverse it. that is getting beyond our area of expertise beyond that, i would say.—

that, i would say. earlier on this week no doubt _ that, i would say. earlier on this week no doubt you _ that, i would say. earlier on this week no doubt you will - that, i would say. earlier on this week no doubt you will have i that, i would say. earlier on this. week no doubt you will have seen there was an imf forecast for the global economy. there was lots of focus on what happened to the uk. the uk seemed in its forecast to be quite an outlier. i wanted to know, do you all the bank agree with that estimate? the forecast is about the uk. does it feel like we are an outlier, doing less and everyone else? ~ ., ., outlier, doing less and everyone else? ., ., , �*, outlier, doing less and everyone else? what are the reasons it's so? are forecast — else? what are the reasons it's so? are forecast for _ else? what are the reasons it's so? are forecast for uk _ else? what are the reasons it's so? are forecast for uk growth - else? what are the reasons it's so? are forecast for uk growth are i are forecast for uk growth are weaker this calendar year. —— are forecasts. worse than the eu and the us. we look to grow more strongly than the eu in 2022 and 2021. there

is a reasonable amount of volatility over a short period of time and we had to be careful in general about those comparisons. having said that, there are a couple of things. late those comparisons. having said that, there are a couple of things.- there are a couple of things. we are iioin to there are a couple of things. we are going to pull— there are a couple of things. we are going to pull out — there are a couple of things. we are going to pull out of _ there are a couple of things. we are going to pull out of that _ there are a couple of things. we are going to pull out of that press i going to pull out of that press conference with the bank of england, who had announced an increase in interest rates to 4%, up by not .5% as predicted. they are talking through their reasoning with inflation, unemployment was short it is in the labour market and projections for this year. —— with shortages in the labour market. much more on that at one o'clock. now for the weather. some of us are getting to see some brightness. sunshine is ensured supply. a lot of cloud has been rolling its way in from the

atlantic. this pipeline of cloud has been bringing in heavy rain across parts of north—west scotland. all of us are in this wedge of mild air. temperatures are above where they should be at this point in early february. forthe should be at this point in early february. for the rest of the day we will continue to see outbreaks of rain across the northern isles, the north—west of maine and scotland. the rain turning heavier through the afternoon. —— mainland scotland. some sunny spells. in any sense i'm feeling particularly mild highs of 13 degrees. —— as in any sunshine, feeling particularly mild. overnight this band of cloud and patchy rain will sink further south before beginning to drift north again. it will be an mild night the temperature is generally between six and 10 degrees. tomorrow the band of cloud and patchy rain will push north—east, up across north england

and scotland. much of the rain will be quite light and patchy. it would be quite light and patchy. it would be a grey and damp day for many. further south, for northern ireland, wales, the midlands and into the south of england we will see sunshine developing, perhaps more than today. temperatures up to 13, 14. we begin the weekend within this wedge of mild air. there is something colder waiting out in the wings. it is waiting behind this weather front when his wings. it is waiting behind this weatherfront when his band of rentals that will sink south—east into northern ireland and scotland as we go through saturday. increasing amounts of cloud and limited sunny spells. another mild day, not quite as mild, ten to 12 degrees. as the frontal system drifts south through saturday into sunday, we will take rain with it. behind it high pressure will build. it is going to be on sunday many fine day with lots of sunshine. but we will be in the colder air. a little bit more cloud perhaps in the

north—west of scotland. otherwise largely sunny skies overhead. a much brighter looking gay but are slightly colder feeling day. brighter looking gay but are slightly colderfeeling day. —— brighter —looking day but a slightly colder feeling day.

today at one: interest rates rise again — keeping them at their highest level since 2008. the bank of england increases rates from 3.5 to 4% as it tries to tackle soaring prices. it's back to the days of the, you know, panicking every time there's an unexpected bill. the bank says that the uk will enter recession this year, but it will be shorter than it previously thought. the boss of british gas says he's horrified that debt collectors working on the company's behalf are breaking in to the homes of vulnerable customers to fit energy meters. the energy company shell reports it's highest annual profits in its 115—year history. a former russian officer, the most senior to speak openly, gives the bbc an exclusive interivew detailing what he saw

while fighting in ukraine.