hello, i'm nuala mcgovern. this is outside source. the bank of england raises interest rates to 4%, the highest level since 2008. a warning from president putin to the west that a "new war with russia" could move beyond conventional weapons. translation: we are - once again being threatened with german leopard tanks. once again, they are preparing to battle russia on ukrainian soil. he was speaking on the 80th anniversary of the soviet victory over nazi germany. also in the programme: the united states reaches a deal to increase its military presence in the philippines as it seeks to counter chinese influence in the region.

we start here in the uk, where the bank of england has raised interest rates to their highest level for m years. the increase will leave millions of households facing higher mortgage payments at a time when many people are already struggling with crippling energy and food bills. the bank has raised rates by half a percentage point, to 4%. the aim — to make it more expensive to borrow and spend so businesses and households rein in, meaning less upward pressure on prices. uk inflation eased slightly in december but was still at 10.5%, close to the highest level in a0 years and more than five times the bank of england's target. the bank governor said inflation had turned the corner, but the battle against surging prices wasn't over yet. we have done a lot on rates already. the full effect of that is still to come through. but it is too soon to

declare victory just yet. inflationary pressures are still there, and we can see that in the data and we hear it from our agents. and we need to be absolutely sure that we really are turning the corner on inflation, and that's why we've increased bank rate today, and that is why we will, of course, continue to monitor the data very carefully. let me just remind you how steeply interest rates have risen in recent months. today's rate hike was the tenth consecutive increase. however, for the first time in this series, the bank of england's language suggested that the job might be done, or very nearly done. let's hear from the chancellor — or uk finance minister — jeremy hunt on the bank's latest move. we recognise it is very difficult for families, businesses up and down the country when interest rates go up, but much harder for them would be is if we didn't take decisive steps to bring down inflation. and that's why the bank of england is absolutely right to do

what they've done today, and we in the government must make sure we support them by what i do in the budget, to make sure that we make it easier, not harder, for them to do what we all want to do, which is to halve inflation. his labour shadow rachel reeves says she respects the independence of the bank of england, but today's increase will "put even more pressure on people with mortgages". a strong economy has got to be built on a rock of fiscal- and financial responsibility. that's why the conservatives got it so wrong last year, - when they tried to push _ through a load of unfunded tax cuts which had disastrous consequences. the international monetary fund | pointed this week to the impact| of mortgages in the uk contributing to the worst outlook in the uk - compared to countries around i the world, so we are still feeling the effects of thosel misjudged decisions by the conservative party just last year. _ rachel reeves.

let's just touch on what the bank of england is forecasting for the uk economy this year. it says britain remains set for recession, but a "much shallower" one than previously feared. it sees the economy shrinking by 0.5% in 2023 as energy bills fall and price rises slow. that compares with the 1.5% contraction forecast in november. here's our economics correspondent andy verity on that. some critics might say, "well, why are you raising interest rates, which makes life harderfor a lot of households and gives them less money to spend when we're already headed for recession?" the answer to that is that they are worried that inflationary pressure, which had been imported so far — from gas prices and the like — is becoming embedded domestically, in, for example, the price of services, which has gone up by more than they expected. so they are worried that wage rises are reflecting expectations that inflation will stay high and that could become a bit of of a self—fulfilling prophecy. in an interview with the bbc, andrew bailey admitted that it's

"extraordinary" that the uk economy isn't expected to rebound to its pre—pandemic size until 2026. it is extraordinary, actually. now, of course, you may have to conclude that covid has had bigger long—run effects than we thought it would, particularly in terms of things like the labour supply, people choosing to come out of participating in the labour force. but you're right, it is quite remarkable, in that sense. today's bank of england rate rise will have knock—on effects for people with mortgages, credit card debt and bank loans. those with a typical tracker mortgage will pay about £49 — or $60 — more a month, while those on a variable mortgage will pay an extra £31 a month. here's one homeowner. i was kind of hoping that the days of nervously checking the bank balance once you get a couple of weeks into the month were gone, but they're kind of back with a vengeance now, and it's back to the days of, you know, panicking every time there's an unexpected bill.

but with expectations that interest rates are close to their peak, mortgage brokers say more and more customers are looking at variable rate mortgages — rather than fixed rate — to benefit from falling rates. with a fixed rate mortgage, - you could lock in for a two—year, a five—year, a ten—year. obviously, the benefit of locking in for longer is that you know- exactly what you're monthly payments are going to be — the downside can be, _ if the market rates come down — | so if interest rates come down —| you might actually be overpaying versus the base rate or the interest rates that are available _ at the time. the recent run of rate rises is qualified good news for savers. here's claire mofatt, pensions expert at the royal london insurance group. for the last ten, 15 years, those who have savings only and don't have mortgages, they've really struggled because interest rates have been so low, it certainly we would traditionally think of retirees in that space. —— and certainly.

but of course, even with that increase in savings, everything else has got more expensive, hasn't it? so, cost of living crisis, our energy bills are up, our food costs are up, so even with that increase, it's not going to deal with the impact that high inflation has had. the move comes as central banks around the world act to tackle rocketing inflation. the european central bank also raised rates by half—a—percent today to 2.5% and signalled at least one more hike next month. the increase on wednesday from the us central bank was just half that — a quarter—of—a—percentage point — though the federal reserve was more aggressive in raising the cost of borrowing at the beginning of the cycle. joining me is tony yates, former head of monetary policy strategy at the bank of england. lovely to have you with us, thanks for coming into us an outside source. is this what you expected? pretty much. all central—bank cert facing primus the same pressure, a huge rise in inflation we have had to weather because of the energy price increases caused by russia's invasion of ukraine, walking a

tightrope between not wanting to cause a huge recession, and at the same time not wanting to let inflation get out of control. but what about _ inflation get out of control. but what about this 4%? we heard there the recession will go to a recession, the perhaps shallower than expected. how would you consider it and what are you expecting? my consider it and what are you meeting?— consider it and what are you expecting? consider it and what are you exectina? g ,, , _, expecting? my guess is they are robabl expecting? my guess is they are probably done- _ expecting? my guess is they are probably done. if— expecting? my guess is they are probably done. if you _ expecting? my guess is they are probably done. if you look - expecting? my guess is they are probably done. if you look at - expecting? my guess is they are | probably done. if you look at the way the forecast is at the moment, if they were to increase rates any more, inflation, although it is very high at the moment, is going to fall very past, falls in any other target, so i am not going to expect any more rises in the uk. for target, so i am not going to expect any more rises in the uk.— any more rises in the uk. for the averaue any more rises in the uk. for the average person. _ any more rises in the uk. for the average person, they _ any more rises in the uk. for the average person, they usually - any more rises in the uk. for the | average person, they usually have any more rises in the uk. for the i average person, they usually have a mixture of things. they probably have a mortgage and a credit card, maybe some savings if they are lucky. will they feel any relief in the day—to—day? lucky. will they feel any relief in the day-to-day?— lucky. will they feel any relief in the day-to-day? today's rise, the brute fact is _

the day-to-day? today's rise, the brute fact is it _ the day-to-day? today's rise, the brute fact is it is _ the day-to-day? today's rise, the brute fact is it is designed - the day-to-day? today's rise, the brute fact is it is designed to - the day-to-day? today's rise, the brute fact is it is designed to hit i brute fact is it is designed to hit them, because that is what helps bring prices down. as you pointed out earlier in your segment, it is forcing people to rein in spending, which is really unfortunate. that is a fact of life. average people will feel, some people will benefit and most people will not. how feel, some people will benefit and most people will not.— feel, some people will benefit and most people will not. how do you see it, we saw most people will not. how do you see it. we saw the — most people will not. how do you see it, we saw the imf _ most people will not. how do you see it, we saw the imf saying _ most people will not. how do you see it, we saw the imf saying the - most people will not. how do you see it, we saw the imf saying the uk - most people will not. how do you see it, we saw the imf saying the uk was| it, we saw the imf saying the uk was one of the only advanced countries expected to have this low rate of growth? it expected to have this low rate of urowth? ., ~ , expected to have this low rate of i rowth? ., ~' , ., , growth? it makes a very grim readin. growth? it makes a very grim reading- if— growth? it makes a very grim reading. if you _ growth? it makes a very grim reading. if you stand - growth? it makes a very grim reading. if you stand back - growth? it makes a very grim reading. if you stand back a l growth? it makes a very grim - reading. if you stand back a little bit, we are in the middle of a catastrophic and unprecedented stagnation and output per head, prosperity essentially, since the beginning of the financial crisis of and that is really the main challenge for policymakers. what the bank of england does here or there, a half percent increase or decrease in rate, it is small compared to the

enormous policy challenge. what in rate, it is small compared to the enormous policy challenge. what did the need enormous policy challenge. what did they need to — enormous policy challenge. what did they need to do? _ enormous policy challenge. what did they need to do? the _ enormous policy challenge. what did they need to do? the government? | they need to do? the government? very controversial, _ they need to do? the government? very controversial, how— they need to do? the government? very controversial, how to - they need to do? the government? very controversial, how to sort - very controversial, how to sort that. it is kind of the golden chalice which all economists are seeking, but public services are strained to impact on the economy, lots of people pulling out of the labour force because they are ill or not being attended tough. energy, electricity supply. there are all sorts of things that are dysfunctional in the moment and might help. if i are dysfunctional in the moment and miiht hel-. are dysfunctional in the moment and miiht heli. , ., ., might help. if i turn instead to the fed cut i mentioned _ might help. if i turn instead to the fed cut i mentioned it _ might help. if i turn instead to the fed cut i mentioned it quite - might help. if i turn instead to the | fed cut i mentioned it quite briefly there, the united states, they acted more aggressive earlier in the rate cycle. was that the right thing to do? ., , . , ., �* cycle. was that the right thing to do? ., , ., do? the two experiences don't act economies — do? the two experiences don't act economies have _ do? the two experiences don't act economies have experienced - do? the two experiences don't act economies have experienced it - economies have experienced it differently, because the us is energy independent —— the two economies. they are different. they

have similar mandates, similar kind of people pursuing them, so i would not say what the us did means what the bank did were too slow in raising rates, ithink the bank did were too slow in raising rates, i think that would be too harsh. ' :: raising rates, i think that would be too harsh. ':: , raising rates, i think that would be too harsh. ' :: , ., ., too harsh. 10.5 is the inflation rate at the _ too harsh. 10.5 is the inflation rate at the moment. - too harsh. 10.5 is the inflation rate at the moment. let's - too harsh. 10.5 is the inflation rate at the moment. let's see too harsh. 10.5 is the inflation - rate at the moment. let's see what happens in the coming weeks and months. thank you very much. now to russia, where president vladimir putin has compared the country's invasion of ukraine to the fight against nazi germany and hinted that he could seek to move beyond conventional weapons. he was speaking in volgograd in southern russia, which is marking the 80th anniversary of the battle of stalingrad. cadets dressed in modern and soviet uniforms marched along the main city's square. and they were not alone. modern and world war ii—era tanks rolled through the city centre. some of the vehicles were marked with the letter z, which has become the symbol of russia's invasion.

putin laid flowers at the grave of the soviet marshal who oversaw the defence of the city and visited the main memorial complex, where he led a moment of silence for those killed in the battle. he also sought to make a comparison between that conflict and the situation in ukraine. take a listen. vladimir vladimirovich putin. cheering translation: now, unfortunately, we see that the ideology of nazism | in its modern form and manifestation once again directly threatens the security of our country. again and again, we have to repel the aggression of the collective west. it's incredible, but it's a fact — we are once again being threatened with german leopard tanks. once again, they are preparing

to battle russia on ukrainian soil. a reminder that last month, germany agreed to allow its leopard tanks to be used to help ukraine fight the russian invasion. but that only followed a long delay and pressure from other allies. as the aggressor in two world wars, many germans are wary of being the main provider of battle tanks in ukraine. putin's comments come as russia's foreign minister has also been speaking on state tv. in comparison to his boss, sergei lavrov struck a more consolatory tone, saying moscow was ready for peace but must also be ready to defend itself. translation: | am | absolutely for peace. i am for peace. i don't remember who said, "if you want peace, prepare for war." i don't agree with this philosophy. i'd put it this way — if you want peace, always be ready to defend yourself. and i think we will emerge stronger from the current geopolitical situation. the eu today announced that it

would provide military training for another 15,000 ukrainian soldiers, doubling the size of that programme. the bloc�*s foreign policy chief josep borrell was speaking to the ukrainian prime minister denys shmyhal on a visit with other senior eu politicians to kyiv. some of the soldiers will be trained to use equipment, including modern leopard 2 tanks. the european commission president ursula von der leyen, who is also visiting kyiv, said russia was paying a heavy price for the conflict. she put a number on it, too — 160 million euros a day. that's what she claims moscow is losing from the price cap on crude oil. and there was more. and we will keep on turning up the pressure further. we will introduce, with our 67 partners, an additional price cap on russian petroleum products. and by the 24th of february, exactly one year since the invasion started, we aim to have the tenth package

of sanctions in place. ukraine's president volodymyr zelensky has been pushing the eu to tighten sanctions still further. he said it was important to keep up the pressure on moscow. translation: we all know that russia is concentrating its forces _ for a revenge attempt not only. against ukraine and also against the free europe and free world. in order to defeat such an enemy, success on the battlefield - alone is not enough. faith in europe is needed, - faith in free, peaceful europe, united europe, with the strength of our institutions. _ on the ground in ukraine, a russian missile destroyed an apartment building in the eastern city of kramatorsk. local police reported that at least three people were killed and 20 injured. rescuers have been searching the rubble. the regional governor condemed the attack. translation: this is the centre of the city. j only civilians live here, which is why any attempts to justify this are futile

at the very least. months after russian forces retreated from ukraine's kherson region, life carries on in its small villages. the damage inflicted by fighting means some local residents have no access to heating or water and rely on firewood and humanitarian aid. one resident explained what life was like there now. translation: my heart hurts for everything - that is going on in the world. when i walk around and i hear the tiniest sound, i almost faint. it is very scary. we are under occupation for eight to ten months, and now after the occupation, it is not any easier. while in the chernobyl exclusion zone, near the border with belarus, ukraine's army has been staging drills. kyiv says it's increasing troops readiness in case of another russian assault from the neighbouring country. the defence minister has said the kremlin is preparing a major new offensive and warned that it could begin as soon

as the 24th of february. to talk about all this, i'm joined by oleksii goncharenko, a member of ukraine's parliament. he's from the southern port city of odesa but is currently in the us. very welcome to outside source. thank you so much forjoining us. let me begin with some of those figures that we are hearing about. the eu will train more ukrainian soldiers. how much of a difference will that make? it is soldiers. how much of a difference will that make?— will that make? it is very important. _ will that make? it is very important, and - will that make? it is veryj important, and definitely will that make? it is very - important, and definitely that will that make? it is very _ important, and definitely that makes a difference. we have a lot of manpower, people who want to fight for their country, for the homeland, but they are untrained. they are it specialists, designers, even we have ballet dancers coming into the army. definitely to be effective, they not just need high morale but to be trained, so we are very thankful for all countries, including the united kingdom and other countries which have provided training to our troops. i5 have provided training to our troo is. , ., ., have provided training to our troo-s. , ., ., , have provided training to our troo-s. , ., . , troops. is the morale still hi? definitely. —

troops. is the morale still hi? definitely, because... - troops. is the morale still hi? definitely, because... we - troops. is the morale still hi? i definitely, because... we don't troops. is the morale still hi? - definitely, because... we don't have any other option. for us, it is existential. it is to be or not to be. russia is committing genocide against ukrainians and yucky by territory, so either they will kill all of us or we will win this war. the word genocide is always a controversial term, the word genocide is always a controversialterm, but the word genocide is always a controversial term, but that is your characterisation of it. i was reading their... i characterisation of it. i was reading their. . ._ characterisation of it. i was reading their... i am sorry, but i want to tell— reading their... i am sorry, but i want to tell you, _ reading their... i am sorry, but i want to tell you, according - reading their... i am sorry, but i want to tell you, according to i want to tell you, according to united nations charter on prevention of genocide, there are five criteria of genocide, there are five criteria of what is genocide and unfortunately all five are met in ukraine. putin says ukrainians do not exist. they destroy our cultural heritage, there is sexual violence, there is mass murders of and the forced deportation of people, including children. all five criteria. that will of course _ children. all five criteria. that will of course be _ children. all five criteria. that will of course be for _ children. all five criteria. that will of course be for war - children. all five criteria. that will of course be for war crimes tribunals, which i know so many investigations are under way already, but let me turn to the 24th

of february, because that is the date the defence minister has said the kremlin could be preparing a major offensive. using ukraine is ready to combat that? —— do you think? ready to combat that? -- do you think? , ~ ., , ready to combat that? -- do you think? , ~ . , ., , ., ., , think? yes, ukraine is ready for any develoiiin think? yes, ukraine is ready for any developing of— think? yes, ukraine is ready for any developing of the _ think? yes, ukraine is ready for any developing of the situation, - think? yes, ukraine is ready for any developing of the situation, but - think? yes, ukraine is ready for any developing of the situation, but we | developing of the situation, but we ask our partners to help us to give us weaponry quicker and when i hear that canada said, we will give ukraine fourtanks, united kingdom is saying 14 tanks, i'm very thankful. four is better than zero, 14 is better than zero, but we know how many russia had at this time in the invasion, from ii,000—20,000, so watch make tanks, 14 tanks, that is very important, but it will not make a difference —— four tanks. we urge people to give us long—range missiles, to give us fighters. that

is vital for our victory.— is vital for our victory. you're in the united _ is vital for our victory. you're in the united states. _ is vital for our victory. you're in the united states. what - is vital for our victory. you're in the united states. what you . is vital for our victory. you're in - the united states. what you asking for when you speak to people that have power, to make these decisions? you see, this is the white house, you see it, and there is a very important decision taken there. the weaponry is the most important today. it is long—range missiles, heavy drones, fighterjets and others. that is what we need today. with this, we will finish this war in several months to the benefit of the whole world. without this the will be prolonged for a very long time and the whole world will suffer from this. ., ., , ~ time and the whole world will suffer from this. ., ., , ,, .., from this. you really think it could end in a number— from this. you really think it could end in a number of— from this. you really think it could end in a number of months? - from this. you really think it could | end in a number of months? yeah, from this. you really think it could - end in a number of months? yeah, we can win in several _ end in a number of months? yeah, we can win in several months _ end in a number of months? yeah, we can win in several months if _ end in a number of months? yeah, we can win in several months if we - can win in several months if we receive all weaponry that we need exactly. receive all weaponry that we need exactl . . ., receive all weaponry that we need exactl. . ., ., ,, exactly. oleksii goncharenko, thank ou ve exactly. oleksii goncharenko, thank you very much _ exactly. oleksii goncharenko, thank you very much for — exactly. oleksii goncharenko, thank you very much forjoining _ exactly. oleksii goncharenko, thank you very much forjoining us. - exactly. oleksii goncharenko, thank you very much forjoining us. thank| you very much for “oining us. thank ou. to the philippines now,

where the us has been granted access to four more military bases, as it tries to counter chinese influence in the region. the agreement was signed off by the us defence secretary lloyd austin after talks in manila. here's mr austin announcing the deal. america's commitments to the defence of the philippines is ironclad. we discussed expanding the enhanced defence cooperation agreement, which allows our forces to operate together more efficiently from key sites across the philippines. and we're pleased to announce today that president marcos has approved four new edca locations. that brings the total number of edca sites to nine. here's our asia correspondent rupert wingfield—hayes on why this deal is important for the us. this behind me here is camp aguinaldo. it's the headquarters of the philippine armed forces, and this is where the us secretary of defence lloyd austin came today to announce this agreement.

why is the philippines so significant? well, it's really about geographical location. if you look at the military alliances the us has in east asia, to the north, you have korea, japan, and in the south, you have australia. but here in southeast asia, the philippines really sits in the most significant strategic position — next to the south china sea, close to taiwan — and that's why the americans have been pushing hard for this agreement to regain access for their troops. under the enhanced defence cooperation agreement, the us had been given limited access to five military bases. now they will have extended access to nine. philippine officials say locations being considered include bases in northern luzon — near taiwan — and palawan near the south china sea. james derleth from the marshall center says the agreement is one part of a larger strategy to deter china. it'll affect it to some extent, but it won't solve the whole problem. as we saw in the black sea or we've

seen in the south china sea fora number of years, military force is only one component. in this strategic competition we have going on now, it's got to be a holistic approach. that means economic, that means... ..economic, social, political. it can'tjust be military. but it's one piece. it shows presence. let's take a closer look at what the philippines could gain from this deal. over the past decade, manila has watched china redraw the map of the south china sea, with little power to intervene. in 2012, china seized control of scarborough shoal, which is inside the philippines exclusive economic zone. and since 2014, china has been building artificial island bases near the disputed spratley islands — including one at mischief reef, which is also inside the philippines exclusive economic zone. the philippines defence minister said thursday's deal was an important strategic step for the country. for the defence department, to make sure that not an inch of our nation's territory will be lost. and our people's security and safety

will be ensured by the strengthening of our diplomatic relations with our allies, preserve peace and create a stable international environment in the asia—pacific region. the philippines�* former president rodrigo duterte had sought closer ties with china. as this deal shows, the new administration of ferdinand — known as bongbong — marcos has been keen to reverse that. but he needs to tread a careful diplomatic line, because while the philippines may want to protect its territory, china is its biggest trading partner. here's hermin kraft from university of philippines. this is, to a certain extent, part of the foreign policy plan of the marcos administration

about being friends to all, but at the same time, you have to take into consideration the strategic relationship between the philippines and the united states has been a long—standing one. and the idea of increasing or putting some teeth to american guarantees of security has been something that the philippines have been asking for for quite some time now. while the deal was being announced, a group of protestors set fire to american flags outside the military headquarters. some left—wing parties in the philippines have argued against deepening ties with the us military. the history of violence and abuse by us troops in the philippines is still a sensitive subject. china has criticised the deal and accused the us of escalating tensions in the region. here's our asia correspondent rupert wingfield—hayes again. china's reaction has been relatively mute. it has essentially said this is the americans trying to trick the philippines into a trap and they are advising the philippines against doing anything. translation: out of selfish - interests, the us has continuously strengthened military deployment in the region, which exacerbates regional tensions and endangers regional peace and stability. countries should remain vigilant against this and avoid being used by the united states. so that suggests that beijing wants to keep good relations with manila and won't retaliate,

at least for the moment. thank you very much for watching. do stay with us. more editions of outside source to come. good evening. a feed of mild, moist air from the atlantic brought unseasonably high temperatures today, widely up into double digits, but it also brought a lot of cloud and a lot of rain for some. that was the scene earlier on in the highlands. this pipeline of cloud shows up very clearly on our earlier satellite image. it is also going to be very windy for a time in the north of scotland, but those winds still coming from the atlantic, from the west or the southwest, so broadly speaking, it stays mild through tonight and into tomorrow. but those wind gusts widely 40, 50, even touching 60 miles per hour in northern scotland, at least for a time. overnight, this band of cloud and patchy rain sinks southwards before then heading northeastwards once again. temperatures between 5 and 10 degrees, so a very mild starts to friday morning with our band of cloud and mostly light

and patchy rain, clearing northern ireland very quickly, affecting parts of northern england and then drifting its way up across scotland. something a little brighter likely to develop as we head into the afternoon across south—west scotland and north—west england. northern ireland brightening up quite nicely. for wales, for central and southern parts of england, here, we will see some sunny spells, often quite large amounts of cloud, but really mild — 12 degrees for glasgow, 14 in london. and we start the weekend within this wedge of mild air. but as you can see behind me, there is something a little bit different waiting in the wings, some colder air waiting behind this weather front, this band of cloud and rain, which through saturday will get in across northern ireland and the western side of scotland. further south and east, england and wales largely dry with large amounts of cloud, some sunny spells, temperatures of 10, 11 or 12 degrees. but during saturday night, that frontal system will push southeastwards, the rain fizzling

all the while. and this big, strong area of high pressure is going to build its way in across the uk for sunday. so, yes, we will be left in some colder air, but we will also have bright skies overhead, largely clear skies and lots of sunshine. bit of cloud lurking across the far southwest, a bit of cloud in the north of scotland as well. temperatures down a little bit, 8 or 9 degrees. and then into next week, broadly speaking, quite a chilly feel to the weather. dry in many places, some rain at times in the north and west.

hello, i'm nuala mcgovern. this is outside source. the bank of england raises interest rates to 4%, the highest level since 2008. a warning from president putin to the west, who says a "new war with russia" could move beyond conventional weapons. translation: we are - once again being threatened with german leopard tanks. once again, they are preparing to battle russia on ukrainian soil. he was speaking on the occasion of the 80th anniversary of the soviet victory over nazi germany. also in the programme. oil and gas giant shell posts record profits — after a surge in energy prices due to the war in ukraine.

let's return to the war in ukraine now. a former russian army officer — the most senior to have spoken out openly — has told the bbc that he witnessed russian soldiers committing crimes in ukraine, including torture, looting, and threats of rape. konstantin yefremov says he saw one ukrainian prisoner of war being beaten, shot and humiliated. mr yefremov is now seen by russia as a traitor. he's been speaking to our russia editor, steve rosenberg. this is the war in ukraine, the official russian version of it. packaged, promoted, propagandised by moscow. fearless russian soldiers fighting the good fight, defending the motherland. but konstantin yefremov was there, and the reality, he says, is very different. konstantin was a senior lieutenant in the russian army,

but he's fled russia and he's agreed to tell me about crimes he says he saw russian soldiers committing in ukraine. starting here. this is one of konstantin�*s first photos from ukraine — an air base seized by russian troops in melitopol. translation: i saw looting there. soldiers and officers grabbed everything they could. they climbed all over the planes and went through all the buildings. buckets, axes, bicycles — they bunged it all in trucks. konstantin says that on the day russia invaded ukraine, he tried to quit the army. he was warned he'd face up to ten years in prison for desertion. in occupied ukraine, he was sent to guard this artillery unit, and then a facility where he says he witnessed ukrainian prisoners

of war being tortured. the ukrainian had a blindfold on. the colonel put a pistol to the prisoner's forehead and said, "i'm going to count to three and then shoot you in the head." he counted and then fired just to the side of his head, on both sides. the colonel started shouting at him. isaid, "comrade, colonel, he can't hear you. you've deafened him." the interrogations became increasingly violent, claims konstantin. during another interrogation, the colonel shot the prisoner in the arm and in the right leg, under the knee and hit the bone. i went to the commanders and said, "the ukrainian needs to go to hospital. he'll be dead by morning from blood loss." we dressed him up in a russian uniform and took him to hospital. we told him, "don't say you're

a ukrainian prisoner of war because either the doctors will refuse to treat you or the injured russian soldiers will hear you and shoot you." the bbc has verified documents, photographs and videos provided by konstantin confirming his identity and his movements. once he'd returned to russia, back on base, he was accused of a serious breach of discipline — for refusing to go back to ukraine. he was dismissed from the army. a russian human rights group, gulagu.net, has helped him leave the country. i apologise to the whole ukrainian nation for coming to their home as an uninvited guest with a weapon in my hands. i don't even have a moral right to ask forforgiveness from the ukrainians. i can't forgive myself, so i can't

expect them to forgive me. konstantin says that senior officers called him a traitor for being anti—war, but he points out that he gave an oath to protect his country, not to attack another. steve rosenberg, bbc news, moscow. turning now to a big business story. europe's biggest energy company shell has made the biggest profit in its more than 100 year history. its profits hit nearly 40 billion dollars — double last year's. that's around 32.2 billion pounds. that's due — at least in part — to the surge in oil and gas prices because of the war in ukraine. here's our business editor — simonjack. it is notjust the most money that shell has ever made in its 115 year

history. by my estimations it is the biggest profit ever recorded by a uk—based company. $40 billion, £32 billion and as you say, we have had rocketing oil and gas prices. they have started to come down a bit here but this is 2022's numbers. we already had higher oil and gas prices as the world emerged from a covid induced coma and demand came back. and there than they were rocketing when you had russia invaded ukraine and had things like russian oil gas and supplies shut off or shunned by international buyers. making the market, there was a lot of demand for what was left. so that is the context for this. i doubt they will be that next year because of the profits are coming down but we have inflation at a 40 year high, people's energy bills have doubled in some case tripled in some instances and so there is in understandable outreach in some quarters that they think shell should be paying much more tax. as simonjack mentioned there — these record profits have renewed

the debate about how much tax oil giants like shell should pay. shell says it's expecteing to pay an additional 2.3 billion dollars in tax on its 2022 earnings, that's because of the eu's windfall tax, and the uk's energy profits levy — imposed last year. remember, the idea behind this is to target firms which benefit from something they were not responsible for — in other words, a windfall. but some say this doesn't go far enough. we believe that when companies are making record profits and families can't heat their homes, we should close those loopholes. they'll still make profits, but we should close the investment allowance loophole that allows them to get tax breaks for investing in fossilfuels. we should backdate the windfall tax to when the government ought to have done it, not when they actually did it. and by doing so, we could get real help to families who are struggling now. but some argue taxation isn't the answer — this is the perspective of andy brown — a former oil executive.

the problem started before the war. the prices were very high. why? because the supply was not keeping up with demand. if you tax more, there's less money to invest in supplies. so actually, it's a downward spiral by taxing more. what you've got to do is stimulate investment, and particularly in green energy. so this is not about taxation to hand money back. this is about providing more supply. so why is this happening? well in part — it's because of the russian invasion of ukraine. oil and gas pricesjumped over concern about supplies. on wednesday, oil giant exxon also reported a new record — nearly 56 billion dollars. the white house called it �*outrageous after american people were forced to pay such high prices at the pump amidst putin�*s invasion�*. let�*s put that into context — this is how one energy economist sees it. so record prices last year for national gas and shell in particular have a very lucrative

liquefied natural gas business and that has driven the profit, but the irony is that only a few years ago many people were writing off the old ——oil company saying the old investor is over but we are seeing today record prices driven by —— record profits driven by high prices because of the crisis. alice harrison is the fossil fuels campaign leader at campaign organisation global witness. i suppose first your reaction to some of these figures. figs i suppose first your reaction to some of these figures.- i suppose first your reaction to some of these figures. as he said shell made _ some of these figures. as he said shell made over _ some of these figures. as he said shell made over £32 _ some of these figures. as he said shell made over £32 billion - some of these figures. as he said shell made over £32 billion profit| shell made over £32 billion profit last year and i think it is important to put that into context. that is over £1000 a second. that would be enough to pay the annual energy bills of almost half of the uk population. bearing in mind energy is very expensive right now. it would obviously would have been more than enough to cover the £28 billion the uk government says would be needed to give all public sector

workers a pay rise in line with inflation. the oil and gas industry has always been a rich but it is particularly shocking to see shell and other oil and gas companies raking in such huge sums in the midst of an energy affordability crisis here in the uk that has obviously pushed millions of families into poverty. it is important to recognise shell is richer because we are all poorer. let�*s talk about this because they say they are paying tax, do to pay $134 million in uk windfall tax for 2022 and more than 500,000,020 23 and i know it is billions instead of their profits but they say they would drive only about 5% of its revenue from the uk. the rest is made and taxing otherjurisdictions. how are you suggesting that that be

changed, if you are? so how are you suggesting that that be changed, if you are?— changed, if you are? so look, the windfall taxes _ changed, if you are? so look, the windfall taxes that _ changed, if you are? so look, the windfall taxes that have - changed, if you are? so look, the windfall taxes that have been - windfall taxes that have been imposed in some parts of the world but actually, a few countries may seem like a high rate on the surface but they are massively undercut by tax breaks and by other subsidies that governments give to oil and gas companies. so the uk is long been one of the most generous places in the world for oil and gas companies. the windfall tax we have in place here is not a permanent one. it is only set to continue for a few years and we are actually calling for the uk government to match the approach that the norwegians have taken. they have imposed a total permanent tax on oil and tax industry, 78%. if that was done if uk estimates suggest that that would free up £33.73 suggest that that would free up £33.3 billion within a few years. obviously that is money that could be well spent giving our public sector workers the pay rise that

they deserve. d0 sector workers the pay rise that they deserve-— sector workers the pay rise that they deserve. sector workers the pay rise that the deserve. , ., ~ , they deserve. do you think there is the political _ they deserve. do you think there is the political will _ they deserve. do you think there is the political will to _ they deserve. do you think there is the political will to do _ they deserve. do you think there is the political will to do that - the political will to do that under this government?— the political will to do that under this government? absolutely not. this is a very _ this government? absolutely not. this is a very fossil— this government? absolutely not. this is a very fossil fuel _ this government? absolutely not. this is a very fossil fuel friendly . this is a very fossil fuel friendly government. it receives millions in pounds in party political donations, rishi sunak last year, a quarter of his donations received came for people with investments in oil, gas, aviation. liz truss, her election campaign has the biggest donor for that was the wife and former vp —— bp executive i recently appointed climate minister was recently outed as having received a large donation from one of the uk�*s... i did as having received a large donation from one of the uk's. . .— from one of the uk's... i did not have any — from one of the uk's... i did not have any of— from one of the uk's... i did not have any of those _ from one of the uk's... i did not have any of those people - from one of the uk's... i did not have any of those people to - have any of those people to respond directly to the way that you have characterised that but i understand thatis characterised that but i understand that is where you�*re coming from at your organisation. thank you so much for talking with us interesting ideas you are bringing up in a way

to change the rate at that windfall tax. to washington, dc now. marking the anniversary of the family and american leave act. before i started running for president i was a governor but i was very interested in this issue in i kept noticing that they introduce this bill every year. and he introduced it for six years before it passed. so he passed it and it got vetoed and then he passed it again and it got vetoed again. but the time i started running for president i basically made it a part of my stump speech because i thought it both embodied what was wrong then

by the polarised politics of washington and embodied the hazards of overlooking the country when it has changed on the ground. what do i mean by that? the president and i and need cn chris hugh —— nancy, all of us who are 75 years or older grew up in a different time.— of us who are 75 years or older grew up in a different time.- myj up in a different time. laughter. my mother always _ up in a different time. laughter. my mother always worked _ up in a different time. laughter. my mother always worked in _ up in a different time. laughter. my mother always worked in my - but they were atypical. . by the 1992 election _ but they were atypical. . by the 1992 election unfolded - but they were atypical. . by the 1992 election unfolded there i but they were atypical. . by the i 1992 election unfolded there were more and more families where both the mother and father had to work to make a living. or where there was

only one parent in the home with the children. in a situation like that both society and its political leaders looked oddly hypocritical if they say if there is nothing more important than raising children. —— utterly. how about a little help to do that? oh we can�*t do that. so... the rest of us followed the lead of senator dodd and the others in the senate and there were republicans to that work for it. that was a different time. there were more than 200 women, children, labourand faith organisations led by the national partnership for women and

families. {lii national partnership for women and families. .., , national partnership for women and families. , ,, , families. of course us president -- former us — families. of course us president -- former us president _ families. of course us president -- former us president bill _ families. of course us president -- former us president bill clinton i former us president bill clinton there with president biden marking there with president biden marking the anniversary of the fmla family medical and leave act mr biden is called for an expansion of federal worker access to leave and also expanding access to paid and unpaid leave for government agencies. that is by mr clinton was referring back to the working lives of his mother and grandmother there. i suppose perhaps, it is in a way campaigning. we do know the presidential campaign start very early. stay with us. medics in iran condemn the brutal tactics of security forces —— who often shoot protesters in the face, leaving them with life—changing injuries. a global wave of bird flu — which has killed more than 200 million birds —

is spilling over to some mammals, according to research in the uk. animal health officials have detected the disease in otters and foxes. more targeted testing and surveillance is to be carried out — but the risk to humans is described as very low. here�*s claire marshall. more than 200 million birds have died as a result of the worst avian flu outbreak in global history. now the virus is being found in mammals. in the uk in a small number of foxes. they could have eaten infected birds. it�*s also been found in a handful of otters, another animal likely to encounter diseased birds. we were given rare access to the government lab in surrey at the heart of the uk�*s fight against avian flu. this is where they test and monitor changes in the virus. this buzzard has been sent in. it is not infected. it�*s ten times as many

birds as we used to do. it�*s critical we carry on with this testing. we want to be sure we in the uk. determine the extent in the uk. now having found the virus in foxes and otters, they will be doing more work on mammals. we haven't got evidence of these viruses can maintain in those populations, but we are doing more surveillance. we have kicked off a formal ramping up in the last two weeks, but it is targeted. it is looking for where there is a real risk of spill—over into mammals so we can be watchful. right now the threat to be humans is still said to be very low but the world health organization told the bbc it was very concerned and monitoring the situation closely. the advice is clear. he�*d any warning signs and don�*t touch any sick or dead birds. claire marshall, bbc news.

this is outside source live from the bbc newsroom. our lead story is... the bank of england raises interest rates to 4%, the highest level since 2008. it�*ll hit mortgages, credit card debt and bank loans — but help those saving money. now to iran where young protesters are being shot in the face with rubber bullets or metal pellets, often resulting in the loss of their eye. whether to discourage or humiliate demonstrators, iran�*s revolutionary guards have ramped up the use of this technique. ophthalmologists across iran have called for a review by the ministry of defence to put a stop to it. parham ghobadi has more —— and a warning his report contains some graphic images of injuries. he said to me, "go or i shoot you in the eye." mariam was intentionally shot in the face by revolutionary guards while she was protesting in tehran last october, a method used more

and more by iranian forces wanting to put a stop to the protests. one plainclothes agent appeared and began shooting at me with rubber bullets from about a metre and a half away. he shot me eight times. i fell down. the same officer pointed his shotgun back at me and shot me in the eye. bbc news identified dozens of victims all over iran who were intentionally targeted and lost their eye as a result. aydin is one of them. they pointed a laser at my head and fired birdshot from a 15—metre distance. six pellets ended up all over my body. these are the type of ammunition the revolutionary guards have been using to deter protesters. according to the united nations human rights guidance on less lethal weapons, kinetic impact projectiles such as rubber bullets should not be targeted at the head, face and neck, and metal pellets, such as those fired from shotguns,

should never be used. a doctor removed three at home, but i needed to go to a hospital for the rest, as one went through my eye and landed in my sinuses near my brain. but the hospital is not always a safe place for wounded protesters. someone had to flee from his hospital bed after being intentionally shot in the face by a rubber bullet. i had to escape from the hospital because two officers were after me. before going to the hospital, i didn�*t go home for 20 days and change places every night. salman has now left the country. he said he was shot by a plainclothes officer who recognised him and identified him as a protester. as soon as he saw me he raised his paintball gun and shot rubber bullets at me. i lost my sight in my left eye permanently. i can�*t even see light. i also suffered injuries in my teeth and skull. due to inflammation of my brain veins

i was an inch away from becoming brain dead. i saw similar cases in the hospital, people who were shot in the eyes, but with birdshot. they were 50, 60 metal pellets in their bodies and one to three pellets in their eyes. salman and others we spoke to all said that despite going blind, they see light at the end of the tunnel, and they will not give up. parham ghobadi, bbc news. the recent massacre at a dance hall in california, during the lunar new year celebrations left the local asian—american community shocked — but also defiant. 11 people died when a gunman opened fire in monterey park, just east of downtown los angeles. many of the victims were keen ballroom dancers — a pasttime which is very popular among their community. our correspondent ben derico went to meet a ballroom dancing group in san francisco to find out how they are responding to the attack. on lunar new year�*s eve, the los angeles suburb

of monterey park became the site of a terrible shooting. 11 people were killed at star ballroom as they danced and celebrated with friends and family. for seniors in the asian—american community, ballroom dancing has become an incredibly popular hobby and the shooting has reverberated around dance halls across the country. this shooting in los angeles is not going to stop us. no, people still come. ruby and peter wong have run premiere ballroom near san francisco for almost 30 years. me and peter, we love to dance, so we opened this studio. i think this is very important to the community and they are like my family and they think it�*s theirfamily too. it�*s also a place where dancers can take a break from the stresses of their daily lives. ballroom dancing makes me happy.

and i can see people, i talk to people, i listen to music and maybe i have something stress, then the music can make me, two or three hours, not thinking about that. for hiroshi and juliana kawanami, dancing has been at the centre of their marriage and the friendships they�*ve created for 40 years. my wife and i, we met through the dancing. that's how we started. this is our second marriage. so dancing is really bringing us together. while some dancers come just to strut their stuff, others take lessons from ruby. many here say they have no plans of staying away from the dance floor any time soon. i think they still want us

to continue for, you know, to enjoy our dancing because all those people there, they love dancing, you know, just like us. as for ruby, she�*s not scared either. oh, i�*m not afraid at all. i will be the one at the front desk. protect everybody. ben derico, bbc news, san francisco. a rare green coloured comet has made its closest approach to earth for 50 thousand years, at a distance of around 26 million miles away. the last time it was visible from earth, neanderthals were around to see it. astronomers say the green tinge is thought to come from a reaction between sunlight and atoms in the comet. it was caught on film by george chan in his back garden on the outskirts of nottingham. experts say if you don�*t spot it this time, the comet will be back in another 50 thousand years.

thank you so much and you stay with us on the bbc if you can. good evening. a feed of mild, moist air from the atlantic brought unseasonably high temperatures today, widely up into double digits, but it also brought a lot of cloud and a lot of rain for some. that was the scene earlier on in the highlands. this pipeline of cloud shows up very clearly on our earlier satellite image. it is also going to be very windy for a time in the north of scotland, but those winds still coming from the atlantic, from the west or the southwest, so broadly speaking, it stays mild through tonight and into tomorrow. but those wind gusts widely 40, 50, even touching 60 miles per hour in northern scotland, at least for a time. overnight, this band of cloud and patchy rain sinks southwards before then heading north—eastwards once again. temperatures between 5 and 10 degrees, so a very mild starts to friday morning with our band

of cloud and mostly light and patchy rain, clearing northern ireland very quickly, affecting parts of northern england and then drifting its way up across scotland. something a little brighter likely to develop as we head into the afternoon across south—west scotland and north—west england. northern ireland brightening up quite nicely. for wales, for central and southern parts of england, here, we will see some sunny spells, often quite large amounts of cloud, but really mild — 12 degrees for glasgow, 14 in london. and we start the weekend within this wedge of mild air. but as you can see behind me, there is something a little bit different waiting in the wings, some colder air waiting behind this weather front, this band of cloud and rain, which through saturday will get in across northern ireland and the western side of scotland. further south and east, england and wales largely dry with large amounts of cloud, some sunny spells, temperatures of 10, 11 or 12 degrees. but during saturday night, that frontal system will push south—eastwards, the rain fizzling all the while.

and this big, strong area of high pressure is going to build its way in across the uk for sunday. so, yes, we will be left in some colder air, but we will also have bright skies overhead, largely clear skies and lots of sunshine. bit of cloud lurking across the far southwest, a bit of cloud in the north of scotland as well. temperatures down a little bit, 8 or 9 degrees. and then into next week, broadly speaking, quite a chilly feel to the weather. dry in many places, some rain at times in the north and west.

hello, i�*m nuala mcgovern. this is outside source. a warning from president putin to the west, that a "new war with russia" could move beyond conventional weapons. translation: we are once again being threatened i with german leopard tanks. once again, they are preparing to battle russia on ukrainian soil. he was speaking on the 80th anniversary of the soviet victory over nazi germany. also in the programme... the united states reaches a deal to increase its military presence in the philippines, as it seeks to counter chinese influence in the region. the bank of england raises interest rates to 4%, the highest level since 2008.

now to russia — where president vladimir putin has compared the country�*s invasion of ukraine to the fight against nazi germany, and hinted that he could seek to move beyond conventional weapons. he was speaking in volgograd in southern russia, which is marking the 80th anniversary of the battle of stalingrad. cadets dressed in modern and soviet uniforms marched along the main city�*s square. and they were not alone — modern and world war ii—era tanks rolled through the city centre. some of the vehicles were marked with the letter z, which has become the symbol of russia�*s invasion. putin laid flowers at the grave of the soviet marshal who oversaw the defence of the city, and visited the main memorial complex, where he led a moment of silence for those killed in the battle. he also sought to make a comparison between that conflict and the situation in ukraine. take a listen.

vladimir vladimirovich putin. cheering translation: now, unfortunately, we see that the ideology of nazism | in its modern form and manifestation once again directly threatens the security of our country. again and again, we have to repel the aggression of the collective west. it�*s incredible, but it�*s a fact — we are once again being threatened with german leopard tanks. once again, they are preparing to battle russia on ukrainian soil. a reminder that last month, germany agreed to allow its leopard tanks to be used to help ukraine fight the russian invasion. but that only followed a long delay — and pressure from other allies.

as the aggressor in two world wars, many germans are wary of being the main provider of battle tanks in ukraine. sergey karaganov is chair of russia�*s council on foreign and defence policy. he�*s been speaking with stephen sackur on hardtalk, where he compaired nato to a cancer. we are fighting the cancer, the cancer called nato and its expansion. we tried to persuade by surgery. i hope it will not come to radiology, ora surgery. i hope it will not come to radiology, or a more complex... surgery. i hope it will not come to radiology, ora more complex... i�*m radiology, or a more complex... i'm sor , radiology, or a more complex... i'm sorry. sir. — radiology, or a more complex... i'm sorry. sir. are _ radiology, ora more complex... i'm sorry, sir, are you alluding to russia�*s nuclear weapons capability when you talk about... i�*m russia's nuclear weapons capability when you talk about. . .— when you talk about... i'm not alludini when you talk about... i'm not alluding to _ when you talk about... i'm not alluding to anything, - when you talk about... i'm not alluding to anything, i'm i when you talk about... i'm not| alluding to anything, i'm saying when you talk about... i'm not i alluding to anything, i'm saying we alluding to anything, i�*m saying we shall win the war, whatever that means. and i assume that we have all

kinds of possibilities — i hope we will not be using all these possibilities about our western partners or enemies, or whoever. they are ramming the door. the eu today announced that it would provide military training for another 15,000 ukrainian soldiers, doubling the size of that programme. the bloc�*s foreign policy chief, josep borrell, was speaking to the ukrainian prime minister denys shmyhal, on a visit with other senior eu politicians to kyiv. some of the soldiers will be trained to use equipment including modern leopard ii tanks. the european commission president, ursula von der leyen — who is also visiting kyiv — said russia was paying a heavy price for the conflict. she put a number on it, too — 160 million euros a day. that�*s what she claims moscow is losing from the price cap on crude oil. and there was more. and we will keep on turning up the pressure further. we will introduce, with our g7 partners, an additional price cap

on russian petroleum products. and by 24 february, exactly one year since the invasion started, we aim to have the tenth package of sanctions in place. ukraine�*s president, volodymyr zelensky, has been pushing the eu to tighten sanctions still further. he said it was important to keep up the pressure on moscow. translation: we all know that russia is concentrating its forces _ for a revenge attempt not only. against ukraine and also against the free europe and free world. in order to defeat such an enemy, success on the battlefield - alone is not enough. faith in europe is needed, i faith in free, peaceful europe, united europe, with the strength of our institutions. _ on the ground in ukraine, a russian missile destroyed an apartment building in the eastern city of kramatorsk. local police reported that at least three people were killed, and 20 injured. rescuers have been searching the rubble. the regional governor

condemned the attack. translation: this is the centre of the city. j only civilians live here, which is why any attempts to justify this are futile at the very least. oleksii goncharenko, a member of ukraine�*s parliament. he�*s from the southern port city of odesa, but is currently in the us. i began by asking him about the eu plan to train ukrainian soldiers. it's it�*s very important, and definitely that makes a difference that we have a lot of manpower, people who want to fight for the country. but they are untrained — icy specialists, designers, we even have belly dancers coming down. and to be effective, they notjust need high morale, but to be trained. so we are thankfulfor all morale, but to be trained. so we are thankful for all countries, including the united kingdom and other countries providing training

to our troops. i5 other countries providing training to our troops-— to our troops. is the morale still hi? definitely _ to our troops. is the morale still hi? definitely - because - to our troops. is the morale still hi? definitely - because we i to our troops. is the morale still| hi? definitely - because we don't have any other _ hi? definitely - because we don't have any other option. _ hi? definitely - because we don't have any other option. to - hi? definitely - because we don't have any other option. to us, i hi? definitely - because we don't have any other option. to us, it's have any other option. to us, it�*s existential, it�*s to be or not to be. russia is committing genocide against ukrainians on the territories. so either they will kill us or we will win that word. genocide is a controversial term but thatis genocide is a controversial term but that is your characterisation of it. i was reading there that the kremlin... i was reading there that the kremlin. . .— i was reading there that the kremlin... �* , , ., ., kremlin... i'm sorry, but i want to tell ou kremlin... i'm sorry, but i want to tell you that according _ kremlin... i'm sorry, but i want to tell you that according to the i tell you that according to the united nations charter on the prevention of genocide, there are five criteria of what is genocide — unfortunately, all five are met in ukraine. they publicly denounced ukraine. they publicly denounced ukraine exists, food and describes them as russians, but bad russians. they�*ve destroyed our cultural heritage, there is sexual violence, and mass deportations of people including children. all five criteria, like in the textbook. find criteria, like in the textbook. and of course i _ criteria, like in the textbook. and of course i will _ criteria, like in the textbook. and of course i will be _

criteria, like in the textbook. and of course i will be for war crimes tribunals, which i know many investigations are under way already. but let me turn to 24 february, because that is the date the defence minister has said the kremlin could be preparing a major offensive. do you think ukraine is ready to combat that?— offensive. do you think ukraine is ready to combat that? yes, ukraine is ready for— ready to combat that? yes, ukraine is ready for any _ ready to combat that? yes, ukraine is ready for any development i ready to combat that? yes, ukraine is ready for any development or i ready to combat that? yes, ukraine is ready for any development or any situation. but we ask our partners to help deliver us weaponry quicker. and you know when i hear canada saying we will give ukraine for tanks or the uk saying 14 tanks — i�*m grateful, for is better than zero, 14 is better than zero. but do you know how many tanks russia had at the start of the invasion? they went from 11 to 20,000 — so for tanks, 14 tanks is very important, but it will not make a difference. so we urge our allies to give as

long—range missiles, fighters— that is so vitalfor our long—range missiles, fighters— that is so vital for our victory today. you�*re in the united states, what are you asking for when you speak to people that have power to make these decisions? you people that have power to make these decisions? ., , , , decisions? you see, this is the white house — decisions? you see, this is the white house - _ decisions? you see, this is the white house - there _ decisions? you see, this is the white house - there are i decisions? you see, this is the white house - there are very l white house — there are very important decisions taken there for weaponry. that�*s the most important today. this is long—range missile attacks, drones, fighterjets, f—16s and others. that�*s what we need today. we will finish up this war in several months to the benefit of the whole world. without these, it can be prolonged for a very long time and the whole world will suffer from this. ., . , ~' ,, and the whole world will suffer from this. ., ., , ,, i. .., this. you really think you could end in a couple — this. you really think you could end in a couple of _ this. you really think you could end in a couple of months? _ this. you really think you could end in a couple of months? yes, - this. you really think you could end in a couple of months? yes, we i this. you really think you could end | in a couple of months? yes, we can win in several— in a couple of months? yes, we can win in several months if— in a couple of months? yes, we can win in several months if we - in a couple of months? yes, we can win in several months if we will- win in several months if we will receive the weaponry we need. to the philippines now — where the us has been granted access

to four more military bases, as it tries to counter chinese influence in the region. the agreement was signed off by the us defence secretary lloyd austin after talks in manila. here�*s mr austin announcing the deal. america�*s commitments to the defence of the philippines is ironclad. we discussed expanding the enhanced defence cooperation agreement, which allows our forces to operate together more efficiently from key sites across the philippines. and we�*re pleased to announce today that president marcos has approved four new edca locations. that brings the total number of edca sites to nine. here�*s our asia correspondent on why this deal is important for the us. this behind me here is camp aguinaldo. it�*s the headquarters of the philippine armed forces, and this is where the us secretary of defence lloyd austin came today to announce this agreement.

why is the philippines so significant? well, it�*s really about geographical location. if you look at the military alliances the us has in east asia, to the north, you have korea, japan, and in the south, you have australia. but here in southeast asia, the philippines really sits in the most significant strategic position — next to the south china sea, close to taiwan — and that�*s why the americans have been pushing hard for this agreement to regain access for their troops. under the enhanced defence cooperation agreement, the us had been given limited access to five military bases. now they will have extended access to nine. philippine officials say locations being considered include bases in northern luzon, near taiwan, and palawan, near the south china sea. james derleth from the marshall centre says the agreement is one part of a larger strategy to deter china. it'll affect it to some extent, but it won't solve the whole problem. as we saw in the black sea or we've seen in the south china sea

fora number of years, military force is only one component. in this strategic competition we have going on now, it's got to be a holistic approach. that means economic, that means... ..economic, social, political. it can'tjust be military. but it's one piece. it shows presence. let�*s take a closer look at what the philippines could gain from this deal. over the past decade, manila has watched china redraw the map of the south china sea, with little power to intervene. in 2012, china seized control of scarborough shoal, which is inside the philippines exclusive economic zone. and since 2014, china has been building artificial island bases near the disputed spratley islands — including one at mischief reef, which is also inside the philippines exclusive economic zone. the philippines defence minister said thursday�*s deal was an important strategic step for the country. for the defence department, to make sure that not an inch of our nation�*s territory will be lost. and our people�*s security and safety

will be ensured by the strengthening of our diplomatic relations with our allies, preserve peace and create a stable international environment in the asia—pacific region. the philippines former president rodrigo duterte had sought closer ties with china. as this deal shows, the new administration of ferdinand — known as bongbong — marcos has been keen to reverse that. but he needs to tread a careful diplomatic line. because, while the philippines may want to protect its territory, china is its biggest trading partner. here�*s hermin kraft from university of philippines. this is, to a certain extent, part of the foreign policy plan of the marcos administration about being friends to all, but at the same time, you have to take into consideration the strategic relationship between the philippines and the united states has been a long—standing one. and the idea of increasing or putting some teeth to american guarantees of security has been something that the philippines

have been asking for for quite some time now. while the deal was being announced, a group of protestors set fire to american flags outside the military headquarters. some left—wing parties in the philippines have argued against deepening ties with the us military. the history of violence and abuse by us troops in the philippines is still a sensitive subject. a spokesperson from of one of the left—wing parties was at the protest. filipinos do not need additional american troops and facilities. it will only serve to increase the tensions in the south china sea and the taiwan strait. and deploying additionalfacilities in the taiwan strait. and deploying additional facilities in troops the taiwan strait. and deploying additionalfacilities in troops in the philippines will direct the country into the conflict between china and the united states. china has criticised the deal and accused the us of escalating tensions in the region. here�*s our asia correspondent rupert wingfield—hayes again. china�*s reaction has

been relatively mute. it has essentially said this is the americans trying to trick the philippines into a trap and they are advising the philippines against doing anything. translation: out of selfish - interests, the us has continuously strengthened military deployment in the region, which exacerbates regional tensions and endangers regional peace and stability. countries should remain vigilant against this and avoid being used by the united states. so that suggests that beijing wants to keep good relations with manila and won�*t retaliate, at least for the moment. stay with us on outside source. still to come: we take a look at what lies ahead for the uk, now that the bank of england has raised interest rates to their highest in 14 years. this is the moment that millions in iran have been waiting for. after his long years in exile, the first hesitant steps

of ayatollah khomeini on iranian soil. south africa�*s white government has offered its black opponents concessions unparalleled in the history of apartheid, and the anc leader nelson mandela is to be set free unconditionally. three, two, one. a countdown to a critical moment. the world's most powerful rocket ignited all 27 - of its engines at once. and apart from its power, - it's this recycling of the rocket — slashing the cost of a launch —| that makes this a breakthrough in the business of space travel. two americans have become the first humans to walk in space without any lifeline to their spaceship. one of them called it a piece of cake. thousands of people have given the yachtswoman ellen macarthur a spectacular homecoming in the cornish port of falmouth after she smashed the world record for sailing a solo around the world nonstop.

this is outside source, live from the bbc newsroom. our lead story is... president vladimir putin has compared the country�*s invasion of ukraine to the fight against nazi germany, and hinted that he could seek to move beyond conventional weapons. this to move beyond conventional weapons. all comes. president this all comes as the ukrainian iresidenr , this all comes as the ukrainian ”residen , ~' ., this all comes as the ukrainian iiresiden , ~' . , , this all comes as the ukrainian iresideni ~' . , , ., president says ukraine deserves to start talks on _ president says ukraine deserves to start talks on eu _ president says ukraine deserves to start talks on eu membership i president says ukraine deserves to start talks on eu membership this| start talks on eu membership this year. here in the uk, the bank of england has raised interest rates to their highest level for 14 years. the increase will leave millions of households facing higher mortgage payments at a time when many people are already struggling with crippling energy and food bills. the bank has raised rates by half a percentage point, to 4%. the aim — to make it more expensive to borrow and spend, so businesses and households rein in, meaning less upward pressure on prices. uk inflation eased slightly in december but was still at 10.5% —

close to the highest level in 40 years, and more than five times the bank of england�*s target. the bank governor said inflation had turned the corner, but the battle against surging prices wasn�*t over yet. we have done a lot on rates already. the full effect of that is still to come through. but it is too soon to declare victory just yet. inflationary pressures are still there, and we can see that in the data and we hear it from our agents. and we need to be absolutely sure that we really are turning the corner on inflation, and that�*s why we�*ve increased bank rate today, and that is why we will, of course, continue to monitor the data very carefully. let me just remind you how steeply interest rates have risen in recent months. today�*s rate hike was the tenth consecutive increase. however, for the first time in this series, the bank of england�*s language suggested that the job might be done, or very nearly done. let�*s hear from the chancellor — or uk finance minister — jeremy hunt, on the bank�*s latest move. we recognise it is very

difficult for families, businesses up and down the country when interest rates go up, but much harder for them would be is if we didn't take decisive steps to bring down inflation. and that's why the bank of england is absolutely right to do what they've done today, and we in the government must make sure we support them by what i do in the budget, to make sure that we make it easier, not harder, for them to do what we all want to do, which is to halve inflation. here�*s his labour shadow, rachel reeves. a strong economy has got to be built on a rock of fiscal- and financial responsibility. that's why the conservatives got it so wrong last year, _ when they tried to push _ through a load of unfunded tax cuts which had disastrous consequences. the international monetary fund | pointed this week to the impact| of mortgages in the uk contributing to the worst outlook in the uk i compared to countries around i the world, so we are still feeling the effects of thosel

misjudged decisions by the conservative party just last year. _ let�*s just touch on what the bank of england is forecasting for the uk economy this year. it says britain remains set for recession, but a "much shallower" one than previously feared. it sees the economy shrinking by 0.5% in 2023, as energy bills fall and price rises slow. that compares with the 1.5% contraction forecast in november. in an interview with the bbc, andrew bailey admitted that it�*s some critics might say, "well, why are you raising interest rates, which makes life harderfor a lot of households and gives them less money to spend when we�*re already headed for recession?" the answer to that is that they are worried that inflationary pressure, which had been imported so far — from gas prices and the like — is becoming embedded domestically, in, for example, the price of services, which has gone up by more than they expected.

so they are worried that wage rises are reflecting expectations that inflation will stay high and that could become a bit of of a self—fulfilling prophecy. in an interview with the bbc, andrew bailey admitted that it�*s "extraordinary" that the uk economy isn�*t expected to rebound to its pre—pandemic size until 2026. it is extraordinary, actually. now, of course, you may have to conclude that covid has had bigger long—run effects than we thought it would, particularly in terms of things like the labour supply, people choosing to come out of participating in the labour force. but you�*re right, it is quite remarkable, in that sense. today�*s bank of england rate rise will have knock—on effects for people with mortgages, credit card debt, and bank loans. those with a typical tracker mortgage will pay about £49 — or $60 — more a month, while those on a variable mortgage will pay an extra £31 a month. here�*s one homeowner. i was kind of hoping that the days of nervously checking the bank balance once you get a couple of weeks into the month were gone, but they're kind of back

with a vengeance now, and it's back to the days of, you know, panicking every time there's an unexpected bill. but with expectations that interest rates are close to their peak, mortgage brokers say more and more customers are looking at variable rate mortgages, rather than fixed rate, to benefit from falling rates. with a fixed rate mortgage, i you could lock in for a two—year, a five—year, a ten—year. obviously, the benefit of locking in for longer is that you know- exactly what you're monthly payments are going to be — the downside can be, _ if the market rates come down — | so if interest rates come down —| you might actually be overpaying versus the base rate or the interest rates that are available _ at the time. the recent run of rate rises is qualified good news for savers. here�*s claire mofatt — pensions expert at the royal london insurance group. for the last 10—15 years, those who have savings only and don�*t have mortgages, they�*ve really struggled because interest rates have been so low, and certainly we would traditionally think of retirees in that space.

but of course, even with that increase in savings, everything else has got more expensive, hasn�*t it? so, cost of living crisis, our energy bills are up, our food costs are up, so even with that increase, it�*s not going to deal with the impact that high inflation has had. the move comes as central banks around the world act to tackle rocketing inflation. the european central bank also raised rates by 0.5% today, to 2.5% and signalled at least one more hike next month. the increase on wednesday from the us central bank was just half that — a quarter—of—a—percentage point — though the federal reserve was more aggressive in raising the cost of borrowing at the beginning of the cycle. tony yates is the former head of monetary policy strategy at the bank of england. all central—banks are facing primus the same pressure, a huge rise in inflation they�*ve had to weather because of the energy price increases caused by russia�*s invasion of ukraine,

walking a tightrope between not wanting to cause a huge recession, and at the same time not wanting to let inflation get out of control. but what about this 4%? because we heard there the recession will go to a recession, the perhaps shallower than expected. how would you consider it and what are you expecting? my guess is they are probably done. if you look at the way the forecast is at the moment, if they were to increase rates any more, inflation, although it is very high at the moment, is going to fall very past, falls in any other target, so i am not going to expect any more rises in the uk. —— fall very fast. -- fall very fast. we talked about savinis -- fall very fast. we talked about savings for _ -- fall very fast. we talked about savings for a _ -- fall very fast. we talked about savings for a mortgage. - for the average person, they usually have a mixture of things. they probably have a mortgage and a credit card, maybe some savings if they are lucky. will they feel any relief in the day—to—day? today�*s rise, the brute fact is it is designed to hit them, because that is what helps

bring prices down. as you pointed out earlier in your segment, it is forcing people to rein in spending, which is really unfortunate. that is a fact of life. average people will feel, some people will benefit and most people will not. how do you see it, we saw the imf saying the uk was one of the only advanced countries expected to have this low rate of growth? it makes a very grim reading. if you stand back a little bit, we are in the middle of a catastrophic and unprecedented stagnation and output per head, prosperity essentially, since the beginning of the financial crisis of and that is really the main challenge for policymakers. what the bank of england does here or there, a half percent increase or decrease in rate, it is small compared to the enormous policy challenge. what did they need to do?

thanks so much forjoining us, stay with us here on bbc news. good evening. a feed of mild, moist air from the atlantic brought unseasonably high temperatures today, widely up into double digits, but it also brought a lot of cloud and a lot of rain for some. that was the scene earlier on in the highlands. this pipeline of cloud shows up very clearly on our earlier satellite image. it is also going to be very windy for a time in the north of scotland, but those winds still coming from the atlantic, from the west or the southwest, so broadly speaking, it stays mild through tonight and into tomorrow. but those wind gusts widely 40, 50, even touching 60 miles per hour in northern scotland, at least for a time. overnight, this band of cloud and patchy rain sinks southwards before then heading northeastwards once again. temperatures between five and 10

degrees, so a very mild starts to friday morning with our band of cloud and mostly light and patchy rain, clearing northern ireland very quickly, affecting parts of northern england and then drifting its way up across scotland. something a little brighter likely to develop as we head into the afternoon across south—west scotland and north—west england. northern ireland brightening up quite nicely. for wales, for central and southern parts of england, here, we will see some sunny spells, often quite large amounts of cloud, but really mild — 12 degrees for glasgow, 14 in london. and we start the weekend within this wedge of mild air. but as you can see behind me, there is something a little bit different waiting in the wings, some colder air waiting behind this weather front, this band of cloud and rain, which through saturday will get in across northern ireland and the western side of scotland. further south and east, england and wales largely dry with large amounts of cloud, some sunny spells, temperatures of ten, 11 or 12 degrees. but during saturday night, that frontal system will push

southeastwards, the rain fizzling all the while. and this big, strong area of high pressure is going to build its way in across the uk for sunday. so, yes, we will be left in some colder air, but we will also have bright skies overhead, largely clear skies and lots of sunshine. bit of cloud lurking across the far southwest, a bit of cloud in the north of scotland as well. temperatures down a little bit, eight or nine degrees. and then into next week, broadly speaking, quite a chilly feel to the weather. dry in many places, some rain at times in the north and west.

welcome to hardtalk, i�*m stephen sackur. the war in ukraine is stuck in a form of bloody winter stalemate. but the expectation is major military offensives are coming as both russia and ukraine seek a game—changing shift in the dynamic of the conflict. putin has a clear numbers advantage when it comes to fighting an all—out war, but will that be enough given russia�*s evident vulnerabilities? my guest is vetreran russian foreign policy analyst and kremlin adviser sergey karaganov. is putin�*s invasion turning into a longterm disaster for russia?