welcome to hardtalk, i'm stephen sackur. the war in ukraine is stuck in a form of bloody winter stalemate. but the expectation is major military offensives are coming as both russia and ukraine seek a game—changing shift in the dynamic of the conflict. putin has a clear numbers advantage when it comes to fighting an all—out war, but will that be enough given russia's evident vulnerabilities? my guest is vetreran russian foreign policy analyst and kremlin adviser sergey karaganov. is putin's invasion turning into a longterm disaster for russia?

sergey karaganov in moscow, welcome to hardtalk. good afternoon. good afternoon and welcome and let me ask you a simple question, after almost a year of war in ukraine is russia ready to acknowledge that it is going badly wrong? it is a war. and we will be winning the war, there is no question about that, the question is of course, the casualties, the destruction of ukraine, ukrainians are used as cannon fodder in order war as cannon fodder in our war with the west, i sympathise with them. but it is their fate. i'm surprised you say that because a month before the invasion

began on the 24th of debris, on the 19th of january you actually said this. i am sure we have no plans to invade ukraine because it would be and to quote your precise words, senseless. at thatjuncture this piece was never published. iassumed... but you still wrote it? i wrote it. i accept that. i assumed it would happen later or else i thought that it should have happened earlier but it happened when it happened. so the juncture was a while away. the winning of the war, the destruction of the ukrainian armed forces, of course, an honorary defeat of the western liberation of ukraine from the nazi

regime and destruction of the ukrainian military. that is quite a wish list. would you agree with me that one important measure of the health of a society whether it's fighting a war or not is honesty, whether a culture or a society is prepared to be honest with itself. do you think russia is being honest with itself today? most russians understand it is a war for life or death. it is existential war. so we are going to win. let's be specific. you have made that point several times. you say it is a matter of life or death. at the moment, for many tens of thousands of russian men in military uniform, it is a question of death, isn't it, so when it comes to honesty is a time for russia to be honest is it

time for russia to be honest with its own people about how many russians have lost their lives? the us estimates around 188,000 russian military personnel killed or injured. isn't it time to come clean? i did not know the figures but i think the figures are at least quantified by ten. but anyway. every man lost is a loss for the country and also i sympathise with hundreds of thousands of ukrainians which are perishing in this conflict. but it is a war. and we have to win, there is no question about that. it is really unfortunate that ukrainians are being used as cannon fodder. i guess that one point, president zelensky and the russian government does not reveal figures but are honest with the ukrainian

population about the figures of losses. but to quote the head of the russian douma defence committee, he says the kremlin must stop lying to the russian people about the state of the war and casualties, do you agree? it is a war so we did not know... my estimate is the casualties are heavy but again, i am not happy about that. ukrainians are losing 8—10 times more but that is terrible because it is a war. in many ways, a civil war. i want to talk a little bit about the state of the conflict. do you believe russia is capable of launching a major late winter or spring offensive because there is much talk about that. if it does not launch it in the coming weeks, it will launch it later and also,

of course, there is also the possibility that if the west continues to support ukraine as it is supporting and building against russia, that violence could go on a higher level. you see, one clear advantage russia has over ukraine is scale, especially when it comes to potential military personnel. the ukrainians say they believe russia is currently trying to mobilise up to half a million new recruits into the russian army. but then i look at reality, the hundreds of thousands of russian men who fled the country to escape mobilisation. i look at the telegram social media channel which shows russian troops on the ground complaining that they do not have equipment, body armour, guns, accommodation. how is russia possibly going to mobilise hundreds

of thousands of new fighters? i am sorry but you are a victim of your propaganda! things are of course, not ideal, absolutely. i mean, daily, my friends are coming forth from the front and the picture is very different, believe me. and that is first hand experience of the men and women which i trust. you see, i do not want to peddle propaganda, i look very carefully at what some russians are beginning to say. i do not know if you saw the words issued by a former vice president of russia under boris yeltsin who just some days ago made this statement. i am not sure he meant it for public consumption but it came out anyway

and he said our armed forces are unable to conduct strategic offensive operations. for 20 years or more the armed forces have been headed by totally incompetent people, right now russians are dying senselessly with the slogan defend russia. why, he says, why are they defending russia and what are they dying for? nobody has the right to take the lives of russians like this. he is weird and he has been a deputy to the president in the worst days of russian collapse. and he has to share the guilt. so it is very strange that he reappears and i hope that he will disappear forever.

critics of vladimir putin to have a tendency to disappear. we are fighting the cancer, the cancer is called nato and its expansion and we tried to persuade... by surgery, i hope it will not come to radiology, or it will be a more complex treatment. i'm sorry, are you alluding to nuclear weapons capability of russia when you talk about... i am not alluding to anything, i say we will solve the worth i say we will solve the war whatever that means and the result, i assume, we have all kinds of possibilities, i hope we will not be using all these possibilities.

but our western partners or enemies or whomever are ramming the door. i promise you, we will come back to that discussion about the full weapons capability of russia and further that might involve weapons of mass destruction, we will come back to that but before we get there, let's stick to where we are right now on the multiple battle fronts. can you define for me, as a veteran strategist in russia and an adviser to the kremlin in the past, can you lay out for me what you believe the strategy of vladimir putin is today, what is his strategic objective? if i understand the strategic objective of russia is to stop this cancer, nato expansion, which was becoming extremely dangerous to russian security.

and that is the main task. there are other tasks like doing away with the ukrainian state as it is which is a neo—nazi state. on that point, if i may, you have used the word neo—nazi twice now, you were asked directly eight so long ago do you think president zelensky is a nazi and you said no so why do you appear to have changed your mind? he is moving in that direction, the problem is that a state can be led not by a nazi in a clear sense but they are very much like germans became since 33. they have walked the same route and they are very similar to the german wars and germans had to pay for that.

for that price. unfortunately, ukrainians will have to suffer the same fate. let's take at face value your claim that this war is about addressing what you call the cancer of nato. even on its own terms, surely the last year shows us that that objective is failing and failing miserably? nato is stronger and more united today than it was before this war began. nato is now committed to sending a highly potent list of weapons systems to ukraine on the basis that it will do whatever it takes to stand by and defend ukraine. so on what measure are you tackling the cancer of nato? as i have said, the methods are becoming stronger

so the medicine should become stronger too. we are only at the early stages of possible escalation. and we have been too careful and we will have to act tougher and tougher and we are sick and tired of our nato partners, they have to be taught a lesson. with all due respect, as we learn of the weapon systems now to be sent to ukraine from the german leopard tanks to the us abrams tanks, to the uk challenger tanks, the french mobile smaller tanks, the artillery systems, and many other systems beside it, the long—range rockets, the us sending rocket systems that can reach 150 kilometres in range, these are all systems which right now russia is struggling to cope with and the struggle is going to get harder and harder.

for russian forces in ukraine. napoleon brought an old european army to russia, most of the nations sent their troops with napoleon, where is napoleon? hitler had an 80% of europe with him and most of european countries sent his troops except for britain. and i think greece and the former yugoslavia. britain would have sent if hitler had not made the fatal mistake of attacking the soviet union before conquering britain. we are used to the situation.

i do not wish to be rude but you are bluffing, aren't you? i am looking at something you said in april 2022, just two months into the war and you said then, if nato continues to arm ukraine, it is obvious that targets in europe can and will be hit. here we sit in february 2023, nato is ramping up massively its arms supplies and weapons systems to ukraine and russia is not hitting the supply chains, not hitting the rail links in poland, not doing all of these things you said it would do eight months ago. russia is bluffing ? i am not a military planner. and if i were... but if needed, it will be done. but we do not want to use the medicine which would kill the body.

of europe. forgive me for feeling this, but it seems to be you are constantly coming back to this implied threat of a nuclear option to be used by moscow. why should we believe in that when in the late summer of 2022, vladimir putin said if there is a direct threat to russia's national security, all means necessary will be employed and he went on to look at the camera and said darkly, this is not a bluff. only a month or two after that and a massive ukrainian counter offensive, they took territory which you in moscow defined as russian, for example in person, in part of the luhansk and donetsk as russian, for example in kherson, in part of the luhansk and donetsk, the ukrainians were taking back russian soil as defined by you and yet moscow

did not escalate. we are cautious. we are waiting for the better moment. and we are waiting to see whether this disease can be treated by less desperate methods but if needed, and if we get really tired and there is a real threat to russia, all means will be used, no problem. you are quite at peace with the thought of russia launching a first strike nuclear attack? i am not speaking about a first strike nuclear attack but what i am saying is that our european and american neighbours are insane, or their leaders, by running the door. you see, there are people

in the united states and europe who listen to that and they think it is simply a sign of your desperation that you make these solutions to weapons allusions to weapons of mass destruction. what they also see is that rather than doing that, what russia actually does on the ground is time after time, aim their rockets and missiles at civilian targets, they clearly, according to all the evidence gathered by the icc and the un investigators, have targeted civilians in towns and villages occupied by russian forces. they have, it seems, consistently contravened international law, committed according to many experts, and according to the evidence, crimes of war, crimes against humanity. do you, as a man who sits on a human rights committee inside russia, do you sit comfortably with what

your forces have done? i am not sitting comfortably with the policy of the west and nato which for a quarter of a century, was telling them and us that it would lead to war. as you well know, that is not my question. that is not my question at all. looking at one human rights commission report, please answer the question, when i quote to you, a human rights report from the un talking about summary executions committed by russian forces in 30 settlements. large numbers of executions, visible signs on the bodies of hands being tied behind backs, gunshot wounds to the head, slit throats and widespread evidence of sexual abuse and rape of civilians. you sit on the human rights committee inside russia, the council for the development of civil society and human rights. how on earth can you even

try to justify any of that? it is a war, we have the absolutely opposite picture of ukrainian troops, but that the cultural level you allow ukrainian neighbours so i know officers are working and soldiers and i assume of course, all kinds of things could happen but from my point of view, you just picture the atrocities of the ukrainian side. i talked about honesty earlier. are you aware the bbc has spoken to a russian officer called constantine who has fled from russia having served with the russian military in ukraine for months and this has been verified, some of the pictures he took have been verified to verify his locations at the time and he talked about seeing a russian colonel shoot a prisoner

of war in the arm and leg, conduct a mock execution. he saw the systematic looting by russian troops and officers. this is a russian officer testifying. i do not know him. whoever he is. let me tell you that we have tonnes of evidence of the opposite behaviour of ukrainian troops and they will pay for that. it is a war on what is terrible. it is a war and war is terrible. but we have to do that. as to these alleged crimes, they could happen everything

but i can assure you that is against the idea of our war, we are freeing ukrainian people and we are trying as much and we have been trying as much as possible to save the civilian population. before the war, there was a semi—war for eight years, the donbas area had been bombarded by ukrainian forces, thousands upon thousands of civilians died and nobody cared about that. we are running short of time so what is the endgame? you have called this an existential war is for us russia is concerned. war as far as russia is concerned. if vladimir putin does not win, is he finished? i do not think that russia will lose. that is not the question of our president. the question of survival of our country so we shall win as we have one always in big wars. isn't the truth that there

are senior figures like the both of the private military contractor group the magna group circling around the kremlin underground power and they do not believe it seems that if vladimir putin cannot deliver victory he will continue in power? it is unbelievable what you are saying! do you really trust those words? i commend you on your bravery of challenging but believe me, i mean... it is, i sympathise with you. do you believe what you have been telling me? absolutely, absolutely. and if i were younger, i would have been on the front line. hundreds upon thousands

of people like my friends are going as volunteers and using their personal money. sergey karaganov, i thank you very much forjoining me on hardtalk. we have to end there. thank you. in double digits, friday's weather chart brings this weather front northwards in eastwards and it will bring some cloud and some patchy rain and behind it, a resurgence of mild air, friday could be an even milder day. we have that weather front in place, it will bring some cloud, some outbreaks in patchy rain

eastwards across northern england and scotland comes up with scotland in northwest england likely to brighten up a little to the afternoon. northern ireland, wales, the middle and in the southwest of violence should see some spells of sunshine enlargements of cloud but temperatures in 13 or 14 degrees and we will start to see the weekend and the mild airand we will start to see the weekend and the mild air and quite a lot of cloud around in some sunny spells. however, this bend of cloud and rain will be seeking its way southwards and that will bring a change because thatis and that will bring a change because that is associated with a court front if you can tell that from the blue triangles here and behind that, the air is set to turn quarter. but of the same time, we see the strong area of high pressure building its way across the uk. while it will feel chillier on sunday, it should look brighter and remember, we look at our map scenes do not see cloud thatis at our map scenes do not see cloud that is because we are expecting sunshine. a bit of cloud preps lingering in the far southwest of

england and in the far north of scotland, temperatures down a little but eight or 9 degrees, that is certainly not anything unusually cold for this time of year. now, our area of high pressure will still be with us as we moved to sunday and monday. they could be a monday morning and maybe some fog patches too. the centre of the drifting further south eastwards in the line more cloud to filter into northern ireland, western scotland, maybe western england and wales as well this temperatures generally around eight or nine or 10 degrees. this area of high pressure is good to be area of high pressure is good to be a big feature of the weather throughout next week and as we move into tuesday, this frontal system tries to push and from the west because of our area of high pressure, that will squeeze the life out of the weather front and so, not much left on it by tuesday, does the bend cloud and maybe some bits and pieces of rain, sunny spells elsewhere in this temperatures around seven, eight or 9 degrees. as we look further ahead, it is likely

that our area of high pressure swing with the centre of the high will attend the slide eastwards out in the continent of europe but depending on exactly where it ends up, that will determine just some chilly things become as we go through next week. it may be the area of high pressure ends up a little further north than we have in our charts here. and i can deaden this really cold air from eastern europe and the most likely scenario is that the high tends to drift towards the southeast and we end up with more of the south or south easterly wind. at this time of the year that will not be particularly mild or particularly cold. so, as we look through next week, one thing we can say is that it will be largely dry with our area of high pressure close by with fog likely to develop it will be a little chilly or at least for a time but there is still a bit of uncertainty as to just how much chillier it will become. that's all for me. goodbye for now.

hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. the bank of england thinks we are at — or near to — the peak in interest rates, and maybe that recession won't be as deep as we expected. are we on the downward side of the economic crisis? no hardship for the energy companies — shell and exxonmobile record their biggest profits ever, on the back of the rising energy prices. and perhaps on the back of some of the most vulenerable, the energy regulator 0fgem asks suppliers to suspend the forced installation of prepayment meters after one company was caught forcibly installing them. tonight with the context — the republican political analyst and former spokesperson for the republican national committee, doug heye, and paul waugh — chief political

commentator for the i paper.