this is bbc news. we will have the headlines and all the main news stories for you at the top of the hour as newsday continues straight after hardtalk. welcome to hardtalk, i'm stephen sackur. the war in ukraine is stuck in a form of bloody winter stalemate. but the expectation is major military offensives are coming as both russia and ukraine seek a game—changing shift in the dynamic of the conflict. putin has a clear numbers advantage when it comes to fighting an all—out war,

but will that be enough given russia's evident vulnerabilities? my guest is vetreran russian foreign policy analyst and kremlin adviser sergey karaganov. is putin's invasion turning into a longterm disaster for russia? sergey karaganov in moscow, welcome to hardtalk. good afternoon. good afternoon and welcome and let me ask you a simple question, after almost a year of war in ukraine is russia

ready to acknowledge that it is going badly wrong? it is a war. and we will be winning the war, there is no question about that, the question is of course, the casualties, the destruction of ukraine, ukrainians are used as cannon fodder in order war of ukraine, ukrainians are used as cannon fodder in our war with the west, i sympathise with them. but it is their fate. i'm surprised you say that because a month before the invasion began on the 24th of debris, on the 19th of january you actually said this — i am sure we have no plans to invade ukraine because it would be and to quote your precise words, senseless. at thatjuncture this piece was never published. iassumed...

but you still wrote it? i wrote it. i accept that. i assumed it would happen later or else i thought that it should have happened earlier but it happened when it happened. so the juncture was a while away. the winning of the war, the destruction of the ukrainian armed forces, of course, an honorary defeat of the western liberation of ukraine from the nazi regime and destruction of the ukrainian military. that is quite a wish list. would you agree with me that one important measure of the health of a society whether it's fighting a war or not is honesty, whether a culture or a society is prepared to be honest with itself. do you think russia is being

honest with itself today? most russians understand it is a war for life or death. it is existential war. so we are going to win. let's be specific. you have made that point several times. you say it is a matter of life or death. at the moment, for many tens of thousands of russian men in military uniform, it is a question of death, isn't it? so when it comes to honesty is a time for russia to be honest so when it comes to honesty is it time for russia to be honest with its own people about how many russians have lost their lives? the us estimates around 188,000 russian military personnel killed or injured. isn't it time to come clean? i did not know the figures but i think the figures are at least quantified by ten.

but anyway, every man lost is a loss for the country and also i sympathise with hundreds of thousands of ukrainians which are perishing in this conflict. but it is a war. and we have to win, there is no question about that. it is really unfortunate that ukrainians are being used as cannon fodder. i guess that one point, president zelensky and the russian government, it does not reveal figures but are honest with the ukrainian population about the figures of losses. but to quote the head of the russian douma defence committee, he says the kremlin must stop lying to the russian people about the state of the war and casualties, do you agree? it is a war so we did not know... my estimate is the casualties are heavy but again, i am not happy about that.

ukrainians are losing 8—10 times more but that is terrible because it is a war. in many ways, a civil war. i want to talk a little bit about the state of the conflict. do you believe russia is capable of launching a major late winter or spring offensive? because there is much talk about that. if it does not launch it in the coming weeks, it will launch it later and also, of course, there is also the possibility that if the west continues to support ukraine as it is supporting and building against russia, that violence could go on a higher level. you see, one clear advantage russia has over ukraine

is scale, especially when it comes to potential military personnel. the ukrainians say they believe russia is currently trying to mobilise up to half a million new recruits into the russian army. but then i look at reality, the hundreds of thousands of russian men who fled the country to escape mobilisation. i look at the telegram social media channel which shows russian troops on the ground complaining that they do not have equipment, body armour, guns, accommodation. how is russia possibly going to mobilise hundreds of thousands of new fighters? i am sorry but you are a victim of your propaganda! things are of course, not ideal, absolutely. i mean, daily, my friends are coming forth from the front and the picture is very

different, believe me. and that is first hand experience of the men and women which i trust. you see, i do not want to peddle propaganda, i look very carefully at what some russians are beginning to say. i don't know if you saw the words issued by a former vice president of russia under boris yeltsin who just some days ago made this statement. i am not sure he meant it for public consumption but it came out anyway and he said our armed forces are unable to conduct strategic offensive operations. for 20 years and more the armed forces have been headed by totally incompetent people, right now russians are dying senselessly with the slogan defend russia. why, he says, why are they defending russia and what are they dying for? nobody has the right to take the lives of russians like this.

he is weird and he has been a deputy to the president in the worst days of russian collapse. and he has to share the guilt. so it is very strange that he reappears and i hope that he will disappear forever. critics of vladimir putin to have a tendency to disappear. we are fighting the cancer, the cancer is called nato and its expansion and we tried to persuade... by surgery, i hope it will not come to radiology, or it will

be a more complex treatment. i'm sorry, are you alluding to nuclear weapons capability of russia when you talk about...? i am not alluding to anything, i say we will solve the worth i say we will solve the war whatever that means and the result, i assume, we have all kinds of possibilities, i hope we will not be using all these possibilities. but our western partners or enemies or whomever are ramming the door. i promise you, we will come back to that discussion about the full weapons capability of russia and further that might involve weapons of mass destruction, we will come back to that but before we get there, let's stick to where we are right now on the multiple battle fronts. can you define for me, as a veteran strategist

in russia and an adviser to the kremlin in the past, can you lay out for me what you believe the strategy of vladimir putin is today, what is his strategic objective? if i understand the strategic objective of russia is to stop this cancer, nato expansion, which was becoming extremely dangerous to russian security. and that is the main task. there are other tasks, like doing away with the ukrainian state as it is, which is a neo—nazi state. on that point, if i may, you have used the word neo—nazi twice now, you were asked

directly eight so long ago do you think president zelensky is a nazi and you said no so why do you appear to have changed your mind? he is moving in that direction, the problem is that a state can be led not by a nazi in a clear sense but they are very much like germans became since 33. they have walked the same route and they are very similar to what germany was and germans had to pay for that. for that price. unfortunately, ukrainians will have to suffer the same fate. let's take at face value your claim that this war is about addressing what you call

the, "cancer of nato. " even on its own terms, surely the last year shows us that that objective is failing and failing miserably? nato is stronger and more united today than it was before this war began. nato is now committed to sending a highly potent list of weapons systems to ukraine on the basis that it will do whatever it takes to stand by and defend ukraine. so on what measure are you tackling the "cancer of nato?" as i have said, the methods are becoming stronger so the medicine should become stronger too. we are only at the early stages of possible escalation. and we have been too careful and we will have to act tougher and tougher and we are sick and tired of our nato partners, they have to be taught a lesson.

with all due respect, as we learn of the weapon systems now to be sent to ukraine from the german leopard tanks to the us abrams tanks, to the uk challenger tanks, the french mobile smaller tanks, the artillery systems, and many other systems beside it, the long—range rockets, the us sending rocket systems that can reach 150 kilometres in range, these are all systems which right now russia is struggling to cope with and the struggle is going to get harder and harder. to get harder and harder for russian forces in ukraine. napoleon brought an old european army to russia, most of the nations sent their troops with napoleon, where is napoleon? hitler had an 80% of europe with him and most of european

countries sent his troops except for britain. and i think greece and the former yugoslavia. britain would have sent if hitler had not made the fatal mistake of attacking the soviet union before conquering britain. we are used to the situation. i do not wish to be rude but you are bluffing, aren't you? i am looking at something you said in april 2022, just two months into the war and you said then, "if nato "continues to arm ukraine, it is obvious that targets "in europe can

and will be hit." here we sit in february 2023, nato is ramping up massively its arms supplies and weapons systems to ukraine and russia is not hitting the supply chains, not hitting the rail links in poland, not doing all of these things you said it would do eight months ago. russia is bluffing ? russia is bluffing. i am not a military planner. and if i were, i wouldn't agree with you. but if needed, it will be done. but we do not want to use the medicine which would kill the body. of europe. forgive me for feeling this, but it seems to be you are constantly coming back to this implied threat of a nuclear option to be used by moscow. why should we believe in that when in the late summer of 2022, vladimir putin said

if there is a direct threat to russia's national security, all means necessary will be employed and he went on to look at the camera and said darkly, this is not a bluff. only a month or two after that in a massive ukrainian counter offensive, they took territory which you in moscow defined as russian, for example in kherson, in part of the luhansk and donetsk as russian, for example in kherson, in part of the luhansk and donetsk, the ukrainians were taking back russian soil as defined by you and yet moscow did not escalate. we are cautious. we are waiting for the better moment. and we are waiting to see whether this disease can be treated by less desperate methods but if needed, and if we get really tired and there is a real threat

to russia, all means will be used, no problem. you are quite at peace with the thought of russia launching a first strike nuclear attack? i am not speaking about a first strike nuclear attack but what i am saying is that our european and american neighbours are insane, or their leaders, by ranning the doors of hell. you see, there are people in the united states and europe who listen to that and they think it is simply a sign of your desperation that you make these solutions to weapons desperation that you make these allusions to weapons of mass destruction. what they also see is that rather than doing that, what russia actually does on the ground is time after time, aim their rockets

and missiles at civilian targets, they clearly, according to all the evidence gathered by the icc and the un investigators, have targeted civilians in towns and villages occupied by russian forces. they have, it seems, consistently contravened international law, committed according to many experts, and according to the evidence, crimes of war, crimes against humanity. do you, as a man who sits on a human rights committee inside russia, do you sit comfortably with what your forces have done? i am not sitting comfortably with the policy of the west and nato, which for a quarter of a century, was telling them and us that it would lead to war. as you well know, that is not my question. that is not my question at all. looking at one human rights commission report, please answer the question,

when i quote to you, a human rights report from the un talking about summary executions committed by russian forces in 30 settlements. large numbers of executions, visible signs on the bodies of hands being tied behind backs, gunshot wounds to the head, slit throats and widespread evidence of sexual abuse and rape of civilians. you sit on the human rights committee inside russia, the council for the development of civil society and human rights. how on earth can you even try to justify any of that? it is a war, we have the absolutely opposite picture of ukrainian troops, but we know the cultural level you allow ukrainian neighbours so i know officers are working and soldiers and i assume

of course, all kinds of things could happen. but from my point of view, you just picture the atrocities of the ukrainian side. i talked about honesty earlier. are you aware the bbc has spoken to a russian officer called constantine who has fled from russia having served with the russian military in ukraine for months and this has been verified, some of the pictures he took have been verified to verify his locations at the time and he talked about seeing a russian colonel shoot a prisoner of war in the arm and leg, conduct a mock execution. he saw the systematic looting by russian troops and officers. this is a russian officer testifying. he ran over the hill

and i do not know him. whoever he is. let me tell you that we have tonnes of evidence of the opposite behaviour of ukrainian troops and they will pay for that. it is a war and war is terrible. but we have to do that. as to these alleged crimes, they could happen everything but i can assure you that is against the idea of our war, ——their we are freeing ukrainian people and we are trying as much and we have been trying as much as possible to save the civilian population. before the war, there was a semi—war for eight years, the donbas area had been bombarded by ukrainian forces, thousands upon thousands of civilians died and nobody cared about that.

we are running short of time. so what is the endgame? you have called this an existential war is for us russia is concerned. if vladimir putin does not win, is he finished? i do not think that russia will lose. it is not the question of our president. the question of survival of our country so we shall win as we have won always in big wars. isn't the truth that there are senior figures like the both of the private military contractor group the magna contractor group the wagner group circling around the kremlin underground power and they do not believe it seems that if vladimir putin cannot deliver victory he will continue in power? it is unbelievable what you are saying!

do you really trust words? i commend you on your bravery of challenging but believe me, i mean... it is an avalanche of information. i sympathise with you. do you believe what you have been telling me? absolutely, absolutely. and if i were younger, i would have been on the front line. hundreds upon thousands of people like my friends are going as volunteers and using their personal money. sergey karaganov, i thank you very much forjoining me on hardtalk. we have to end there. thank you.

hello. weather change is on the way at the weekend. i'll detail in a moment. first, it's been a pretty wet 2a hours across parts of northern scotland, over 50 millimetres of rain in places, overfive hours of sunshine in the sunniest parts of kent on thursday. although much of the uk has been cloudy. some cloud, rain we are all in the mild air at the moment. it's this that changes at the weekend. by sunday, the blue takes over. it will be turning colder but actually will be tipping the balance on sunday in favour of sunnier skies. once again with a big area of high pressure moving right across the uk. we're not there yet and there will be a lot of clouds to start off on friday. there'll be a damp start across parts of southern scotland, northern ireland and northern england, particularly mild here though, double figure temperatures from the word go. now, any early rain will clear away from northern ireland and northern england and push north across scotland. so any early sunny spells here will be short lived

for northern ireland. for england and wales into the afternoon. a lot of cloud around you may still encounter some light rain or drizzle, but there'll also be some brighter spells developing in a few places too. and as for temperatures, there will be a little bit higher than they were on thursday, up to around 13—14 celsius for, say, hull and for london. now on through friday night, we'll keep a good deal of cloud around. it's western areas that are most likely to get some further light rain or drizzle very of wet weather poised to move into scotland as we go on through saturday. another mild start to the day. so here's the weekend under way. we've noticed a lot of cloud around during daylight hours. for england and wales it'll stay mainly dry. there will be a few sunny spells here and there. whereas for scotland and for northern ireland, we'll see this band of rain working its way southwards during the day, and temperatures for many still in double figures. it will be turning colder in those areas. seeing the back of the rain

before the end of the day. and it's the rain along with this weather front that just moves its way southwards and weakens overnight saturday night into sunday morning. and it's behind that — it is a cold front. the colder air moves in, but with a big area of high pressure across the uk. see the wind circulating around it here. there will be loads of sunshine around on sunday, just parts of scotland, maybe the far southwest of england, holding on to some cloud temperatures down, yes, and a frosty night to follow on sunday night.

welcome to newsday. reporting live from singapore, i'm karishma vaswani. the headlines: the us defence department says it's confident a balloon spotted over montana is a chinese surveillance platform. the us also reaches a deal to increase its military presence in the philippines, as it seeks to counter chinese influence in the region. a former russian officer tells the bbc he witnessed russian soldiers humiliating and shooting ukrainian prisoners of war. translation: the ukrainian had a blindfold on. you _ translation: the ukrainian had a blindfold on. you cannot - translation: the ukrainian had a blindfold on. you cannot put. a blindfold on. you cannot put a blindfold on. you cannot put a pistol to the present apps for head and said i am going to counter three, and then shoot in the head.

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