this is bbc news, we'll have the headlines and all the main news stories, straight after hardtalk. welcome to hardtalk. i'm stephen sackur. the first anniversary of russia's all—out invasion of ukraine is fast approaching. there's both a feeling in kyiv and in moscow that it would herald a new phase in the war. president zelensky is

visiting european allies with his focus firmly on the challenges to come. a new russian offensive is seemingly imminent. the west is arming ukraine, but still not at the speed and scale kyiv would wish. my guest is ukrainian mp kira rudik. can ukraine win a long war? kira rudik in kyiv, welcome. thank you so much for having me. a pleasure to have you. i would like you to reflect on president zelensky�*s message here in europe. do you think the focus from the ukrainian government

is more on the gratitude for what european partners have already delivered or more on the urgency to give more now? i think it is 50—50. what we learned over this last year is that you have to create alliances, you have to keep it and you keep the alliances with gratitude but also we want the world to keep supporting us. the war did not start a year ago. it started in 2014 and what was the most painful is after a year, it became a new normal. a new normal for everyone and we still had to fight our fight. so right now we don't want to repeat the story. we want to keep the war on the agenda and get enough weapons so that we can

actually win the war. because the russian strategy is to drag everyone into this long fight with the hope that the allies will not sustain it. that at some point everybody will move on. this is what he has done in georgia and what he did to us in 2014, this is his plan moving on. and we need... and our plan is to get the most of what we can, fight him back, win and then defend our borders. is there a degree of fear in kyiv right now fear of ukraine fatigue setting in europe and may be in the us as well? we live side by side with this fear is probably since the second week of the full—scale invasion. this is why are working

on international fronts this is why president zelensky is doing his international visits, showing gratitude, but also saying we are still fighting, we are still here, please don't forget about us. please stand with us, please win with us. talking of fear, i do sense a different tone in recent weeks coming from your government about the scale of the immediate threat posed by russian forces on the front lines. after all of the optimism in the autumn when ukrainian forces pushed them back from swathes of occupied territory what we have heard in recent days is ukrainian intelligence and military chiefs talking about 300,000-500,000 newly mobilised russian troops being sent to the front line. we have had predictions that there is going to be an imminent and massive russian push on various fronts, particularly in the east.

how much fear is there in kyiv that the threat now posed, it may not be something that ukraine's current military configuration cannot cope with? let's look at the facts here. first, the mobilisation started in autumn so by this time, they were already able to mobilise and train those troops and we have confirmation that they have been moving those troops closer to the battlefield. this is fact one. fact two is putin did not have any major victory on the battlefield since before the counteroffensive on kherson, since autumn. and he has to have some wins, he has to show why he started a war to his people, allies, the whole world.

third, what we have learned during the last year is putin is absolutely particular on the dates. so the major attacks on cue in all of the cities were at hundreds day of war, and therefore half of the one—year anniversary and christmas and etc. so we are getting closer to one—year anniversary and we don't anticipate, we know that the offensive from the russian side will be related to this date. if you believe this one—year anniversary date is important to moscow, how disappointed will you be if you don't have the modern battle tanks that the americans have promised because they have promised 100 at least, yes, but there is no way that they will be available to your troops until later in the spring. that is a big problem, is it not? it is. and of course we are

disappointed and upset and, you name it, the feelings. however, when we are talking about the disappointment, we are also looking back and saying, but look how far we come and how much better we are, better shape with better equipment than we were a year ago. so there were so many impossible things that you and me would never think that would happen actually did starting with the heavy weapons, right now the promises of the tanks is much better than no promises because we know that at some point we will have them. sure in the short run they can't fight with promises, never mind the tanks issue where at least you have a commitment to tanks coming, when it comes to war planes, combat aircraft, president zelensky in london again made a passionate plea for these warplanes, he called them "the wings for freedom."

we know that from 0laf scholz in germany and most particularly tojoe biden in the united states, the answer still is we do not think it is right for us to send warplanes to ukraine. so again, ultimately, it is a question of disappointment, is not? not really. we again learned that �*no�* is something that you could work with. something that you can fight. we have heard this �*no�* for a year, since day one when i was sitting in the same room begging the world to help us because the bombardment was everywhere. the explosions that you could have heard on tv when it was happening. everyone said no and they said no for many other things. that right now have turned to yes. so we know thatjust like another international project that we have had to work with to get their warplanes. no—one is talking about them,

and to answer your question — what would happen if we fail? what would happen if we stopped existing? to be honest, if you read carefully what western politicians are continuing to say, their focus is often on not so much what happens if ukraine is defeated, there focuses on what happens if we supply potent weapons which become escalatory, a word often used with regard to their relationships with russia and their fear of a moscow inspired escalation. to quote 0laf scholz when he ruled out sending warplanes to ukraine to use the simple phrase. "nato is not at war with russia." do you find that thinking problematic or do you recognise it as absolutely what western leaders would have to say? two months ago, 0laf scholz and many others is said absolutely no to tanks.

so right now when they are saying we are not in war with russia, we totally agree. but the question we never heard in answer to is when everyone is afraid of russia escalating — to what — a nuclear attack? after discussions with president xijinping and with india it has been pretty much ruled out. so what the escalation would look like? i don't think there is a proper answer to that. the escalation is that russia will go and attack nato countries? excuse me, they are failing and ukraine right now. they don't have potency for that definitely. so the question again that we need to reform the ideas about you mentioned is, what would happen if ukraine fails?

because i have an answer to that. right now it is not only russia who is watching on the world's response. nato already committed to supporting ukraine in is already battlefield between putin and the whole western world who is supporting ukraine. so if we fail, it would mean that tyranny wins. that the whole forces of nato is not enough to combat russia. then i can name you many tyrants who will raise their hands and say, great, thank you so much for this fantastic example. now we know how we should act. we should get a nuclear weapon and then we should take over our neighbours' land and we know that we will get away with it. this is not the world that we want to live in, right? this is something opposite that we want to build. one key element you thought would sustain you and make you

victorious was notjust the military balance which you feel, will ultimately work in your favour if the west gives you weapons, but also the economic arena where you appear to believe that the isolation of russia and consistent sanctions imposed by the international community would, in the end, bring russia down. how do you feel about the fact that the imf now predicts the russian economy is actually going to grow in 2023 by 0.3% and by 2% in �*21i. does it feel like that economic battle is one that you will not win? when we are talk about russian economy and sanctions, we need to remember that real sanctions that were hitting russia hard only started working in january of this year. the embargo on oil and the cap

on gas and oil prices. before that, they were rather sanctional so cutting ability to trade and hitting particular personalities. so we will need to fight for probably another year to see how bad they perform under the sanctions. you need to be a realist here, you probably know better than i do that russia's deepened its economic with china and president xijinping is expected to go to moscow quite soon to get symbolise that partnership. we know the indians are actually buying more russian energy because of the opportunistic price levels they can get it out. we know that brazil and south africa and a host of other countries are not only refusing to impose sanctions but are also refusing, frankly, to condemn putin and want friendly relations with him. the idea that you could isolate

russia and bring it low, economically, frankly, it does not seem as though it will work. it will work in the long term. so again, we cannot expect that it will happen overnight, that russia will be weakned overnight. and what needs to happen soon is acknowledging russia, as a state sponsor of terrorism, putting secondary sanctions on them, pushing harder. basically what has been done to them was the hope that the economy will be torn apart wasjust step one of the longer plan. one of the items that we are working on is making sure that russian central bank assets are being confiscated. so putin has been preparing for the war and has stored about $500 billion in the countries that he actually despises. so in the united states, canada, united kingdom, other democratic countries. and what we should do

right now, what is fair and logical way to go on is to confiscate those assets and use them to support ukraine. that would be another hit to the russian economy and that would be the fair way not make people in the country that support us pay for putin's crimes, but also, make putin pay for his crimes and for the destruction that he made. and when we are talking about the international coalition and the countries that do not want to stop dealing with mr putin, it will be another sign for them that the ones who are breaking the international laws will be punished as well. i guess the theme of our conversation today is that this is now looking like a very long war and ukraine has to prepare itself for that long struggle. do you think, in terms of ukraine's internal cohesion as a society, it is able

to sustain all of the pressures that come with fighting in all—out existential war for years? it is a challenge indeed. and it is easy to be united for one month, it is harder to be united for six months and it is very hard to be united and cohesive for years. but for us, the question is — what is the alternative? 0n the political matter, it has been a year and we were doing very well for this year, we made a vow at the very beginning, at the first day of the full—scale invasion to put political differences aside and to work as one. and no matter how painful it was, i think we managed to sustain it. but aren't there are now signs of fragmentation? i mean, one immediate example — your defence minister was widely tipped just a few

days ago to be removed. it was felt that zelensky wanted a new approach in the defence ministry. reznikov made it plain that he was not prepared to budge, and now there is a great deal of uncertainty about exactly what is happening. this is not good for that projection of unity, is it? ah, of course, and this is why we are working to make sure that media announcements are not being made before the decisions are made, because they hurt everybody. it's not a good time to change a minister of defence when you are on track to getting the weapons that you need and that when you are preparing for a massive attack from your enemy. however, the reasons why the minister of defence was supposed to be removed were the recent claims of the corruption that we are fighting,

and this is one of the huge challenges for our country. do you think... it should be clear to everybody — you are actually the leader of an opposition party in kyiv, the holos party. so in a sense, before the war began, you were a harsh critic of zelensky when it came to allegations of corruption in high places in ukraine and the failure to take on the so—called oligarchs. are you satisfied with what he has done in the recent days and weeks? we have seen various senior officials fired, allegations of corruption, even within the defence department when it comes to the procurement of basic goods like foodstuffs for the armed forces. zelensky says he is now on top of it. do you think he is? i think firing people and creating cases for people is a good start, but i will be satisfied when i see that the processes are

changed and that there is a proper control of them and that we are moving towards the transparent procurement for the army. this is what we are fighting for, not for having somebody fired, but to make sure that every single day we are becoming better in those processes and those matters. we understand that the war can be long—run for us. this is why we need to prepare on a larger scale, not on the scale of one or two or three people fired. what does an opposition leader do at a time like this? when all of the talk of need for national unity, have you buttoned up your lips to a certain extent when it comes to critiquing the government and president zelensky in particular? yes, we are doing it behind the scenes. i am working as team ukraine,

not as an oppositional leader. there is no opposition in times of war. but hang on. that is very interesting. you say you have signed up to team ukraine. there are questions about how he is handling the reform of the constitutional court, which the european union is not happy with. there are also questions about the way in which the county government is handling the question of minority rights when it comes to russian language in russian culture in your country. doesn't ukraine, even at this time of terrible war, doesn't it need an opposition that is really willing and able to confront difficult truths? this is the work that is being done. we have all the spectrum of opinions in ukrainian parliament, and we are the people who are telling our

government when they are doing things wrong. however, because of the war, we are doing it behind the scenes. not on the tv and not in a public matter as we used to do before. but the whole point of ukraine's battle is that you are fighting, you say, for freedom and democracy, and democracy has to play out in public. how can the people of ukraine be entirely confident that behind the scenes, you are really fighting for what you believe to be freedom and justice? so, first of all, we do hope that the limitations that we all put on ourselves are temporary. and we know that the fact that we are fighting for those democratic values is so important that we keep them all intact. like, the freedom of speech, the freedom of religion, the freedom of democracy and processes. however, at every single point,

we have to make tough decisions on how not to hurt our country at this time because winning the war is much more important than anything. the example is right now we have only one tv channel where all the channels are transmitting to. we have done that because the strength of the russian propaganda and the russian attacks at the very beginning of the full—scale invasion were very strong. it is temporarily, and this is one of the ways how we are defending ourselves against the enemy. we are almost out of time. a final question coming back to the notion of a long struggle, a long war. ukraine is a country with a population that is less than one—third of that of russia's. in terms of scale and the ability to fight a long war and to endure terrible cost, russia is better placed than ukraine. does that mean that at some point you recognise

there will have to be a negotiation and there will probably have to be some sort of compromise to end this war? it has been and it will be a david—versus—goliath situation where we cannot rely on the scale or on our similar ability to provide as many weapons, as many soldiers as russia. we have to find different strategy where we have to be smarter, stronger, more modern in fighting back. in terms of negotiations, what we learned is that you cannot have negotiations with russia unless you have a proper way of ensuring that they will keep their word. and there is no sign in the past that would prove that they will keep their word. it is quite the opposite. so before, there is any way a person or an organisation

or anything that can assure us that russia will not attack us again, there are no negotiations, there are no deals. you know, one of the personal things that we all share is we have seen all of the terrorists of this war and what we owe to our next generation is that this war will end on us. and for this particular sake, until we find a proper way to make sure that putin, russia or whatever would not attack us again, we will continue fighting. kira rudik, i thank you so much forjoining me on hardtalk. thank you very much indeed.

hello. looks like the weekend's not looking bad at all, it's just around the corner. a lot of dry weather on the way. how about friday? it is going to be quite cloudy, particularly across northern and western parts of the country. best of the sunshine in the south—east of the uk. and in fact, this is where the skies have been clearing. you can see all the cloud piling into north—western areas. milder conditions here too, with the south—westerly winds and bits and pieces of rain through the early hours. but where the clear skies have developed across southern parts of england, the temperatures will be lowest. first thing on friday in rural spots could be as low as minus five degrees. well, like plus five, i think, in the lowlands of scotland. and you can see how this milder air is pushing into scotland, northern ireland, northern parts of england and also into wales. but with that also comes a lot of cloud and at times the cloud will be thick enough

here in the west to produce a little bit of drizzle. but i think in western scotland it will be rain. 0n the other hand, in eastern scotland with some sunny spells in aberdeen, it could be around 13 degrees, but after a colder start to the day in the south, it will be about nine or so i think in london. and after a bright start, the clouds will thicken as well. let's have a look at the weekend then. high pressure in charge of the weather so you'd think all settled sunny weather well, not necessarily. there's a lot of clouds stuck in this area of high pressure and it will be slow to move across central parts of the uk. so i think saturday, at least at times will be cloudy. a few glimmers of sunshine certainly on the cards and temperatures quite uniform, typically between 11 and 13 degrees celsius. and the high pressure still with us on sunday. when you're in the centre of the high, the winds are very, very light around the edges of the high pressure, the winds tend to be stronger. so for northern ireland and western scotland, i think more of a brisk wind, whereas lighter winds

and feeling just that a little bit milder, there in the sunny spells across east anglia. and the high pressure — this is into next week, monday, tuesday, the high pressure still very much dominating the weather, notjust around the uk but across much of europe. so certainly i think until about tuesday, wednesday, very little change on the weather front beyond that. some rain possibly on the way but dry until then bye—bye.

welcome to newsday, reporting live from singapore. i'm karishma vaswani. the headlines: at least 20,000 people are now known to have been killed in the devastating earthquakes in turkey and syria. still, relatives hope their loved ones might still be alive. yesterday i tried. myself but you can't. you see the concrete like this, it pushes. we have no power to lift it. amid the misery there are miraculous rescues — a woman is freed after 87 hours under the rubble, but hope is fading for many others. we have seen the weight of

hope.