this is bbc news. we'll have the headlines and all the main news stories for you at the top of the hour, straight after this programme. hello, everybody. a very warm welcome to talking business weekly with me, aaron heslehurst. on the show, the windfalls of war. $200 billion, what's that? that's the total amount of profit taken last year alone by the world's major oil companies. president biden and other world leaders are accusing the oil majors of war profiteering at a time of a cost of living crisis not seen in a generation. so instead of reaping the cash

and paying much of it out to shareholders, should big oil be pumping it back into exploration, or even into the great energy transition? i will be discussing all of that with these two. president of energy policy research foundation, and senior director of energy campaigns for the sierra club. also, your clothes, food, tv, much of the energy that you use, all brought to you by a ship. so i will be taking the pulse of the industry with the big boss at the helm of the world's biggest shipping company. wherever you are watching,

hello, and welcome to the show. 2022 was a tough year for the global economy. just as we began to see the green shoots of recovery from the covid pandemic, russian tanks rolled into ukraine, throwing europe into armed conflict for the first time in over two decades. it's a strategic hotspot, a country with close links to the east and the west, and essentially a buffer zone between russia and its nato adversaries to the west. and because of western sanctions on russian oil global oil prices soared to $127 a barrel, over concerns of a shortfall in supply from russia. that spurred stinging inflation worldwide. but all of that turned out to be very good news for the big oil producers. last year, each of the big five saw their profits at least double, compared to the year before. it's an all—time record. but it certainly raised eyebrows in the white house. big oiljust reported its profits, record profits.

last year they made $200 billion, in the midst of a global energy crisis. i think it's outrageous. they used the record profits to buy back their own stock, rewarding their ceos and shareholders. corporations ought to do the right thing. that is why i propose we quadruple tax on corporate stock buy—backs and encourage long—term investment. critics say these profits are the windfalls of war, but share buy—backs and pumped—up dividends have raised questions about why they don't put money into renewable security. they could even be a survival strategy for the energy demands of tomorrow. rather than hydrocarbons accounting for 85% of the energy mix, as they do today, it will maybe be 40—60% of energy mix by the middle of the century. the successful oil and gas companies that survive

through that period are going to be those that can diversify their portfolios, so that they have a core of key oil and gas assets in their portfolio, but are also able to bring their key skill set to bear on a build—out of a more sustainable energy system, whether in renewable power, biofuels, carbon capture and storage, or in electric vehicle networks. so it's flexibility, it's financial discipline, it's a strong position in research and development. so, here are the big questions for big oil. how do theyjustify reaping record profits when hundreds of millions, if not billions of people, are struggling to heat their homes and fill up their cars? and are they investing enough, and smartly enough,

to secure their own survival to 2050 and beyond? let's get those answers from a man who is a big figure in the us oil industry, and has been working on oil politics since the energy crisis of the early 1970s. he's now president of the energy policy research foundation in washington. lucian puliarisi, a pleasure having you on the show. i know you like to go by lou. oil prices have pretty much stabilised somewhere around 85 bucks a barrel in recent months butjust under one year ago, it topped out at close to $130 per barrel, and that resulted in huge profits for the oil companies. and you know this, lou, critics will say, including your president and other world leaders, it looks like war profiteering. how does the industry defend that? there are periods of time when the industry makes a lot of money, but there are periods when it loses money. nobody has a meeting on capitol hill to say, this is horrible, the oil industry is losing money,

maybe we should give them some money. i'm not sure oil profiteering is a good comment. most of the oil industry is a price taker. the price of oil is set in the world market, the industry itself cannot lower the price, only thing it can do is produce more oil. in recent weeks, some of the big oil companies have been distributing these record profits to shareholders. what's driving them to do that, rather than investing more of it into green technologies, refineries, exploration? investors are demanding in order to have access to this capital and equity that they get their rate of return on their investment. so part of it is that. it is not a bad way to reward investors, through buy—backs, it's much better than dividends, because dividends

create the expectation that they will continue. so i think part of what is going on here is the industry is reflecting the demands of their stockholders. you mention the difference between that is better to do buy—backs and payback dividends, but at least one of the big five is actually paying out more in dividends back to shareholders than it is investing in renewables. some will say isn't that short—sighted? possibly. but i think there is also a poor understanding of how difficult the energy transition really is. transforming the world from where we are today, to a world of net zero, is a huge, costly and very risky effort. the market itself is saying, wait a minute, this is going to be quite difficult. so i think here, bets people place on the fuels of the future and the renewables are kind of reflecting that reality.

if we look ahead ten or 20 years, how well prepared is the industry for its own survival, with growing pressure to shift away from fossil fuels and embrace green, renewable energy? over the next 30 years, the world is going to need the addition of electric power, electrification, currently amount equivalent to what the entire 0ecd is using. in order to do that, in a purely renewable fuel set, we are going to have to have massive additions of solar, wind, land requirements, probably exceeding, just for wind alone, the entire state of texas, solar power that equivalents to the entire landmass

of california. all of that places tremendous cost risks and technology concerns. we are not even going to be able to get the critical materials and minerals, lithium, for electric vehicles. and by the way, the non—0ecd is just not going to do it. they are not buying what we are selling. you might have three million people in denmark who are net zero, go to indonesia, there are 300 million people there, it's hot, and they all want air conditioning. 0k, let me in on this. the international energy agency says burning oil drives about a third of global emissions. so how do we justify our ongoing reliance on oil while we have the fears over climate change, which are looming so large of the planet? why do we rely on oil? why do we rely on it?

it has a lot of features that people like. it is highly dense. it is portable. it can be moved around. and it is available on demand. and all those features make the transition quite difficult. because there is no, really, magic bullet, we can move to these technologies, but with them also come technological and environmental problems. take a volkswagen, an all—electric volkswagen, according to estimates by volkswagen itself, looking at how these vehicles are used, it takes 70,000 to 80,000 miles before they achieve a net reduction in carbon. we probably have to spend a lot more money on research and development, we have to have a very serious discussion on adaptation, versus mitigation, and come with a more pragmatic approach. otherwise we are likely to face a lot of failure nodes,

which are quite damaging to our national economy and our way of life. on that note, a real pleasure having you on the show. thank you for your time. i will talk to you soon. thank you so much. there is still, as lou says, a place for oil in the energy mix of the future, but are they doing enough to work towards a more sustainable future? i've been catching up with an energy campaigner who has been raising some of these important questions. she is head of energy campaigns at the sierra club, an environmental group in united states. kelly shehan, a pleasure having you on the show. it has been a tumultuous period these last couple of years, first covid, then the horrendous war in ukraine, between them, they've had a big effect on the global economy, high inflation driven by those high energy prices. do you welcome high oil prices simply as a way to dampen demand?

no. high oil prices mean that families that are already struggling with high inflation and cost of living are further struggling to put gas in their cars, and we need to see the oil companies investing in a transition that will truly be an affordable one for families and households. and that is on reliant on clean energy not the continued expansion of fossil fuels. those high prices have brought in enormous profits for big oil. what is your message to those oil companies, how should they be allocating these profits nowadays? these are windfall profits that they made off of war profiteering. the oil companies have known for decades that their business model, their core business model, is exacerbating the climate crisis, which means we are seeing severe weather,

like fires and droughts and storms and flooding, depending on where you live in the world. what that means is that if they continue to invest in expansion of oil and gas that we will only have more hardships for our families. instead, they have a role to play in getting our energy economy into the 21st economy by accelerating the transition to clean energy. i think most people would rather see the long—term energy security of a transition to clean energy, that is what they could be to miss those investments instead. how do you react when you hear that some companies are paying more money back to shareholders than the money they are investing in renewables. some might suggest it is short—sighted? it is short—sighted, outrageous, and a poor business model. the oil industry is facing competition like never before, and they would be wise to get on—board with energy and invest into new fields. look, they have

known for decades that their core business model is exacerbating the climate crisis, causing pollution and harm in many communities. ok, so what role, kelly, do think the world's fossil fuel producers have in navigating towards a post—oil future? because, again, some may say, is it really their responsibility? i think it's the role of the financial industry primarily right now to be putting capital towards clean energy solutions and investment in solar and wind, electric vehicles and heat pumps, and to power a clean energy economy. i think that you have seen many of the banks or asset managers make these commitments to net zero, make these commitments to huge ambitious climate pledges and in order to realise that, they need to be stopping investments in the oil majors who are expanding, still, oil and gas drilling, and instead investing in clean energy.

so i think that's where a lot of the responsibility lies is in the financial sector and i think it will pay off in the long run, and even in the short run. and i think the oil companies should be planning for this transition. and let me end on this, kelly — even if every country were to cease using oil as a fossil fuel tomorrow, it will still be needed for petrochemical production, for the likes of insulation, pharmaceuticals, plastics, etc. and the iea, the international energy agency, says about 12% of oil demand is driven by petrochemical production. that percentage is only going to grow. i mean, do you see that ongoing demand as a problem? when you're talking about petrochemicals, you are talking that some things that are real staple in our lives and in the economy, and you're talking about growing a demand

for petrochemicals that go into single—use plastics, or throwaway water bottles, or increasing unnecessary plastic packaging for our household goods. i don't think that's a smart choice economically orfor our communities, or water, air or climate. i think there are many more ways they could go about transitioning off of fossil fuels and off of oil in order to have a stake in the future for our families and our communities. kelly, a real pleasure having you on the show, thank you for your time. i will check in with you soon. thank you. some of the world's biggest cargo ships ferry tens of thousands of containers all around the world. that is very attractive to pirates seeking a big payday. so, how do the big shippers manage that risk? and since we have been talking a lot about oil, here is a fact for you — global shipping burns 300 million tonnes

of oil every year. that swallows up 5% of the world's total. so, what are they doing to change tack? i've been catching up with the big boss of maersk, which operates over 700 ships. that is the biggest fleet on the planet. vincent clerc, a pleasure having you on the show. where to start the current picture of shipping? we all know about the supply chain chaos. the price to fill a standard container soared from $2,000 to over $12,000. we had containers in the wrong part of the world, perhaps sitting empty in china, when they were needed in united states. so, basically, where are we at today? i wonder if we've returned to some sort of normality? you could say that we have returned to something that looks a lot more like normal. what is not finished yet is the fact that the learnings about everything that led to these pandemic disruptions, learning from this and making the fundamental changes that would be necessary to prevent that from happening

or to mitigate the impact of having something like this, how we can manage this, that's still something we have in front of us. the global economy is not a pretty picture. you have said recently that you expect a drop in the number of containers needed to ship all our goods around the world, and that will result in your profits dropping by 75%. that is a staggering number. so, actually, that is correct because there are two things playing out. one is the volume aspect, the other is the price aspect. we are coming down 75% because the prices that we have seen as the dominating prices here in 2021 and 2022, are prices we have never seen before, and profits that have been out of the norm in the industry we operate in. we always always knew that was a temporary effect, linked to congestion and different disruptions that were pandemic—related.

and as this is abating, then you see the price is normalising. and this normalisation of prices, when you see such a large delta on the prices, this is having a very significant impact on the earnings. before the russian invasion in ukraine — and correct me if i'm wrong here — apparently one in three containers that was sitting in russia belonged to you, belonged to maersk. how difficult was it to extract those containers? the decision that we took to exit russia as a consequence of the invasion of ukraine was a decision we took quite rapidly, actually. we are very strong believers in openness, free trade, in a world where countries don't invade each other. we had significant investments in russia in terms of infrastructure, warehouses, ports and so on. we decided to exit those. that was a decision — the decision made was relatively easy and fast,

the execution of that decision actually took quite a few months to do. we are getting close now to the final stage of the last few bits that we need to finalise, but it is actually something that is quite complicated to do. let us talk about the reopening of the great exporter, vincent, which is china. that reopening has come hundreds of millions of chinese coming down with covid, that means less productivity for its factories, its truck drivers and port workers. how is that impacting maersk? it has had an impact. productivity is not at the same level as pre—pandemic, but it has rebounded significantly and is close to those levels. the ability of the chinese to manufacture the goods that are needed, to get them moved to the ports, then get them transported where they need to go, this is restored at this stage. what we are left with is consumers — one of the largest consuming markets in the world

that is coming out of a very prolonged isolation, if you will, and i think if we look at what could be the macroeconomic upside for 2023, it is pent—up consuming demand in china as they catch up with some of the experiences, some of the consumption that they haven't had in the last couple of years. vincent, i want to ask you at the dangers of piracy. many of us know about the hijacking of the maersk alabama off somalia in 2009 — that was made into a film starring tom hanks. even in the past couple of years, you have had attempted attacks. how big of a problem is piracy today? it used to be an issue off somalia, in east africa. today, some of the incidents we have had are not so much on the eastern coast of africa, but mostly in the gulf of guinea, near nigeria, where we have had different incidents in the last couple of years that we had to deal with. the difference with the gulf

of guinea, this is not a well—travelled trade route where you just sail back. most of the ships being attacked are ships that are servicing this local economy, servicing nigeria and the countries there. the option to sail a different route is not there. the choice is to sail those countries and serve those customers in those countries or not to do it. yes, obviously when you are engaged into having ships sail all around the world, the safety of the crew is something that we are concerned about. and these attacks of piracy, as the movie with tom hanks illustrates, is something where you have your people on the ship being in real danger. this is maersk alabama. we are an unarmed freighter. we have two skips approaching with armed intruders. - potential piracy situation. it's something it's preoccupying for us. we are engaging with governments in africa, europe and in united states to make sure that safe trade routes — the safety of the changes can be guaranteed. do your crews get a higher pay,

taking those riskier routes? no, they do not. ok, let's talk shipping emissions, because compared to energy needed to move goods by plane or truck, shipping is far less damaging in terms of greenhouse gases released. but here is your problem — the shipping industry is so big, so collectively, if you added shipping to the list of the world's most polluting countries, it would be something like the sixth most polluting nation on the planet. that is not a good look. what are you doing to not be a part of that problem? let me start with a complete admission that the facts that you just brought, they are correct. we have been part of the problem. we have a role to play — a leading role to play — in being part of the solution here. we started by announcing as the first one that we would be carbon—free by 2050. in the course of last year, we shortened to window that it would take us to achieve these

goals from 2050 to 2040. it gives us a good 17, 18 years for us to achieve this. it is about the time that we need to renew the fleet. the ships that we have, they have an economic life of about 25 years. if you have 18 years to do it, and you only order ships that are compliant, most of your fleet will be renewed on a new type of energy by the time of 2040. the typical seafarer, those that work on the ships, typically male, typically filipino male — filipinos make up about a third of those out at sea — but only 2% of ship workers are women. that is a dismal rate for your industry. what are you doing to attract more women, and how do you do it? that is a good question. i agree that 2% is a really abysmal rate. if you want to change this, you need to take not only

a passive view on let's hire those that want to apply, but also engage with institutions, marine academies, job fairs and so on, in order to show what the potential of such a career has not only for men, but also for women. we have seen when you do that, you have a lot more success. last year, in india, we were able to hire ten times more women in 2022 than in 2021 because we took a more proactive stance in seeking this out and selling this as a career that was attractive across both sexes. on that point, vincent clerc, the big boss of maersk, thank you for being on the show. thanks for your time and i'll talk to you soon. thank you. that is all for now. i hope you enjoyed it. don't forget you can keep up on the latest on the global economy on the bbc website or the smartphone app. or you can follow me on twitter. tweet me — i will tweet you back. you can get me @bbcaaron.

thank you for watching. goodbye. hello there. we're seeing a change to cooler weather on wednesday, even with some rain around as well. now, it has been really dry for many central and eastern parts of england this month. we started the week with temperatures as high as 17 celsius. but things are changing because we've got this cloud that's moving up from northern france to bring some showers, and that's ahead of this thicker band of cloud that's bringing the rain on that weather front there. that's going to continue to push its way steadily eastwards, and then

following on from that, this is where we get the cooler air coming in from the atlantic. and we start the day with temperatures around about 5—6 celsius with a lot of cloud around. we've got the rain across eastern scotland that will move away, sunshine and showers will follow wintry over the hills, perhaps, and a cool wind for northern ireland, sunshine and showers here. more cloud for england and wales, could keep some rain across some northern and eastern parts of england, may well turn a bit brighter with some sunshine, but again, some showers for wales, the south west and later the midlands. and for all of us, it's a bit cooler, the temperatures typically around nine celsius or so. now we've got cooler weather because we're changing the wind direction. instead of that very mild south—westerly that we started the week with, it's more of a north westerly wind turning northerly across england and wales as we head into thursday. around the top of that area of high pressure, some weather fronts will bring some wetter, windy weather across the north, but we've still got some rain to clearfrom overnight across southern parts of england. that cloud could be very slow to break up, other parts of england, of wales seeing some sunshine, more cloud coming into scotland

and northern ireland, wet and windy weather coming into the far north of scotland. temperatures could make double figures in scotland and northern ireland, but it's chilly 8—9 celsius for england and wales. that high pressure is not really dominating just yet. instead, we've got this weather front, an area of low pressure sliding down through the north sea. now, there's not going to be much rain left on that weather front. it's a band of cloud, most of the rain dying out, we'll get a northerly wind following on behind, maybe a bit of sunshine coming back into scotland and some sunshine perhaps towards wales and the south west of england. probably quite a bit of cloud on friday, although it won't be quite as cold, those temperatures generally around 9—10 celsius. so we've got some wet weather around the middle part of the week, that's going to introduce something a little bit colder. but then with high pressure building through the rest of the month, looks like we're back into dry weather.

welcome to bbc news. i'm lisa—marie misztak. our top stories: two presidents, two versions of history: the leaders of america and russia clash over the conflict in ukraine. translation: to defend our historical lands and liquidate | the threat of the neo—nazi regime, we launched a special operation. we are seeing again today what the people across poland and across europe saw for decades, appetites of the autocrat cannot be appeased. born in the rubble: the baby who lost her entire family in the deadly turkish earthquake who now has new hope. the east coast of madagascar is being lashed by high winds and heavy rain as cyclone freddy makes landfall.

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