this is bbc news, the headlines: downing street says talks with the eu over a brexit deal covering northern ireland have been "positive" — raising hopes of an imminent new agreement on trade. a fifth person has been arrested in connection with the attempted murder of the off—duty police officerjohn caldwell in omagh

who remains in a critical condition in hospital. millions of nigerians have been voting in their country's most competitive election since military rule ended there more than two decades ago. china's plans for peace in ukraine cause ripples around the world — president zelensky says he wants to hear more — and the leader of russia's key ally belarus announces plans to fly to beijing. you're watching bbc news. now it's time for talking business. hello, everybody. a very warm welcome to talking business weekly with me, aaron hazelhurst. with me, aaron heslehurst. let's go and take a look at what's on the show.

counting the cost of war as ukraine marks a year since the invasion, we're going to take a look at the toll it's taken on the economy. ukraine's vast farms were feeding the world, but the country is now reliant on billions of dollars of help just to get through every month. ukraine's finance minister tells me how he's kept the economy functioning despite the missiles and the deliberate targeting of infrastructure, including the power grid. also, i'm going to be hearing from a leading business voice on how private companies have managed to keep doing business in a war zone and how they're supporting their staff through it all. many thousands of homes and buildings have been destroyed by russian bombs. so how will ukraine afford to rebuild when the fighting stops? the european bank for reconstruction and development will play a leading role, and its president tells me that the work has already begun. wherever you'rejoining me from around the world, once again, a big hello and a warm welcome to the show.

you know, ukraine, it's been suffering for a year now. it's 12 months since russia invaded because of what president putin said was a need to demilitarize and de—nazify that country. and in that time, thousands have died as ukraine continues to valiantly defend itself. but it's also come at a huge economic cost for both ukraine and the rest of the world. and that's one of the reasons why western allies have at times seemed reluctant to throw their full support behind president zelensky. ukraine has perhaps suffered most. the size of its economy shrunk more than 30% last year as fighting age men left the workplace for the front line. as fighting age men left the difficulty of running a war zone economy means that inflation is running at more than 26% as the country struggles just to keep supply chains going for everything from food to energy. one of the biggest problems ukraine faces is the disruption to its vast farming industry. before the war, it was one of the world's biggest suppliers

of foodstuffs — things like wheat, barley and sunflower oil. however, russian bombing means that fields are not as productive as they were, and ukraine is still facing shipping restrictions, which limitjust how much it can export to the rest of the world. the government says there'll be at least 20% less land to farm this year than before the war. that's because of the fighting. it's one reason global food prices remain at historically high levels. for ukraine, less food out means less cash in, so its allies have been helping out. as you can see here, the us and eu were the biggest contributors last year. but as the war continues, so does the need for cash. the government thinks it needs more than $3 billion a month this yearjust to keep going. it means ukraine's debts continue to balloon. they were $95 billion before the war, which was less than half the size of the entire economy. but this year, that debt could hit $114 billion. so for ukraine, there's a clear, ongoing need for outside support in the run up to the anniversary

of the war. presidentjoe biden was amongst the high profile visitors, and the united states has been kyiv�*s biggest single financial backer. but also there was the head of the international monetary fund, kristalina georgieva. so just how difficult is it to keep a wartime economy running? well, i've been catching up with ukraine's finance minister. sergeii marchenko, my friend, a real pleasure having you on my show again. and sorry it's under these circumstances. but, let's start with this, it's been a year since the war began and the cost in human lives and suffering has been unimaginable during this time. but so what about the impact on the economy as a whole paints a picture? just how bad has it been? unfortunately, the damage done by russian aggression

for ukraine is tremendous. last year we lost particularly more than 30% of our gdp. there was no country with comparable effect, a one year effect on the economy. that's why we suffered a lot. we lost part of our territory. but we are still capable. we're still able and we still can execute our key function as a government. starting from the first days of war, we are able to pay pensions for our people. we pay necessary social protection expenditures as well. we have done all necessary steps to increase our military budget. half of our budget is the military budget. and of course it's not an easy way to run the country in a war. how much money do you need every month to keep the economy going? last year our estimation was 5 billion per month. this year this amount is lower because currency depreciation, because our currency depreciated around 35% last year,

and because other steps and measures which the ukraine government have done to decrease our expenditure and this year our needs has demanded around 3.5 billion per month. so less than last year. the latest numbers show that inflation is running at 26% in ukraine. you've you've had to put interest rates up to 25%. what are you doing to support ukrainian people so they can afford the basics such as food and energy? it's a good question because what we realize that up to 5 to 8 million ukrainians now abroad. so they are immigrants. they left ukraine and now a lot of internally displaced people around ukraine. and for this year, it's also up

to 1 billion expenditures to support internally displaced people, to help them to find necessary apartments, shelters, to pay forfood, something like that. your country, sergeii, has had tens of billions of dollars of international support from the likes of the us and the eu and others, just to keep basics going, such as pension payments, government salaries. are you confident that that sort of help is just going to keep coming? we are confident when we see money in our accounts, if not we should keep moving. we should keep negotiation. of course, now we see that ukraine is under tremendous support. all democracies support ukraine, and it also creates necessary environment for political support for ukraine, where despite that, there could be some fatigue for ukraine's case. now, we haven't seen fatigue. much of the support you've received,

particularly from the eu, has been in the form of repayable loans rather than donations. much of the support you've received, particularly from the eu, has been in the form of repayable loans rather than donations. i mean, i'mjust wondering, are you worried that ukraine is going to be saddled with a mountain of debt, that you're just not going to be able to pay off? we're not worried about that concern right now, of course, for us is preferable to receive grant financing, but mfa finance and micro financial assistance from the eu, it's the money which they can provide for us, and the money which we are attracting from the eu is rather cheap money because eu borrows from their risk as well as money with a long term maturity.

as last year it was 15 plus. this year is around 30 years to full repayment. sergeii, you recently met with the boss of the imf, the international monetary fund, when she came to kyiv. you were looking to negotiate a big long term loan. just how vital is that? what exactly do you want from them? why do you need imf support? because imf is an anchor for other donors in the west in particular, for the united states, for the eu, for bilateral credit, etc. when imf stepped in, they can easily trust their finances towards ukraine with an eye to rebuilding. this can cover our financial needs.

this is our chance. we will try to rebuild our government and install the necessary institutions in place and try to provide everything necessary. we should use it as much as possible. necessary. we should use it as much as possible-— as possible. you recently met with the to as possible. you recently met with the tap wall _ as possible. you recently met with the top wall street _ as possible. you recently met with the top wall street bank, - as possible. you recently met with the top wall street bank, jp - as possible. you recently met with i the top wall street bank, jp morgan, the top wall street bank, jp morgan, about private sector funding for ukraine. what role do you want the private sector to have and and why would it make sense for them to risk their money in a country that has seen two

wars in eight years? good question. and that's why it's necessary for us, together with our key partners. i mean, the united states, the united kingdom, the european union to realise that official support, that concessional financing, is a good way to support ukraine in a war period. but we should look farther away and understand what business environment we should create in place to be able to attract foreign direct investment in different forms. agriculture is very important to the ukrainian at conwy and the latest numbers suggest there's about 20% less land available to plant crops on, so what is the economic impact of that? �* . , ., ., of that? agriculture is one of the key spheres _ of that? agriculture is one of the key spheres of — of that? agriculture is one of the key spheres of our _ of that? agriculture is one of the

key spheres of our economy - of that? agriculture is one of the key spheres of our economy and | of that? agriculture is one of the i key spheres of our economy and we invested in this and we continue to use it as a tool for the development of ukraine. we tried to do the necessary operations and to grab back our territory which we lost in the first days of war. and for people to be able to provide their goods for people and to export grain and food. and so, let me end on this. how long is it going to take to rebuild ukraine's economy and get back to the size it was before the war started? and what gives you hope that it can be done?

hope is good, but the real step is better. i would prefer a clear vision and crystal clear estimates of what we should do to bring our economy back to 2021. what we really need is a very cohesive policy within the government, very wise steps towards necessary policy tools and steps to help our economy to be in the position before the war. well, on that point, sergeii marchenko, ukraine's finance minister, a real pleasure, as always, having you on the show. thanks for your time. stay safe. good luck and i'll talk to you soon. thank you very much. so, over recent years, ukraine has been trying to modernise its economy, making it a better place for major international companies to to do business as it tries to join the european union. but all of that, of course, has been fiercely disrupted by the war.

so just how are private companies managing to keep the wheels of the economy rolling? the likes of bmw, coca cola, nestle and visa, they're some of the more than 600 members of the american chamber of commerce in ukraine. so i've been speaking to its big boss. andy, a real pleasure having you on the show. it's really good to see you. andy, let's start with this. us companies, they are up and running in ukraine. you have 600 members, the likes of mcdonald's, coca cola. this can't be an easy environment for them to be operating in? well, exactly. i mean, one year on and the kyiv stands, ukraine stands and business business stands and business stands with ukraine. and we've seen phenomenal resilience and bravery on the front lines by the armed forces, but also we've seen phenomenal bravery and resilience on the business front. i think the fact that the businesses continue to operate over 70%, they are up and running fully, over 80% are continuing to pay salaries. and i think it's one year on,

it's really understanding and having that picture in your head how companies and businesses continue to operate during a war. so we've seen about 20% have had damage to their properties. so, the factories, especially as the russians came in through the north or through the east, my favorite factory was the 0reo factory, the factory that made 0reos. the cookie? the cookies. yeah, that's been destroyed. that unilever factory that packaged the tea through the north, that's been pretty much destroyed. but still, we've seen that the over 70% are continuing. so to say this is a hostile working environment is an understatement. well, exactly. i think we hear the air raid sirens almost on a daily basis. when president biden was in kyiv, you could hear the air raid sirens going off.

and what that means is for any business, be it a restaurant like mcdonald's or any factory. as soon as the air raid siren starts wailing, you hear it. you have to close the restaurants. you have to kindly ask all the customers to leave. you have to get your staff into safety down into a bunker if you have one, if not to the closest underground metro so that's the first thing about and that happens regularly almost every day. and then that's the first thing. and now since october, we've seen the strikes on the infrastructure, on the electricity, on the distribution network. so what that means is many days the electricity is just cut off. so if you're running a restaurant, a factory, you need to have these generators, diesel generators, and they are behind the restaurants or behind the the factory and they keep the lights on so you can keep on working even when the grid has been has been cut. andy, you mentioned the horrendous human cost here. i'm just wondering, how are your members coping with all the loss as well as supporting their current workforce? and i guess the communities?

well, as you say, we have approximately a fifth of employees that have been at least one employee that's been injured and a fifth that's been killed. so the cost, the human cost is truly enormous. but i think it's the companies they are supporting. they're supporting the families, they are supporting the employees. we have one of our colleagues who is on the front lines and we all chipped in and we bought him a four by four vehicle. we buy night vision so that and we make sure they've got the right equipment to do the job and the kit. and it's really supporting and the nations coming together and everyone sort of supporting one another during this really difficult times. but it is providing and the companies we see, they are providing a lot of support, paying salaries to those that are continuing to work, those serving in the army and to the families of those frail

seem a real human suffering. i do see that many businesses do see this as a responsibility to keep the economy going. you mentioned factories, some of the factories being destroyed. i believe a third of your members have had businesses or factories destroyed. are they are they rebuilding now or is it a wait and see? well, we see that some... i mentioned, coke. coke came in straightaway. they rebuilt, they had damage. so it was damaged? it was, they had damage. and not only did they rebuild the factory, but they also rebuilt the kindergarten, the nursery, the children's nursery in the town, because that was totally damaged. and we see others are rebuilding. others are still wondering, you know, when is the right time to rebuild? let me end on this. you mentioned that three quarters of your members are optimistic that they believe the war will end this year, 2023. what about you ? because some will say, is that a bit too optimistic? i think we see where we were a year ago. a year ago, people were saying leave ukraine, it's going to fall. you know, kyiv stands, ukraine stands.

i think we've seen phenomenal resilience of ukrainians on the front lines. i think we've seen phenomenal unity of the western nations. i think with the support, i think the two factors, the ukrainian resilience and bravery will continue. i think with the united front of the western allies, i think it's possible that ukraine will win this war and will win this war this year. well, on that optimistic point, andy hunter, a real pleasure. always good to thank you, my friend. good luck. thank you. be safe and i'll definitely talk to you soon. thank you. the destruction of large swathes of the country has made it hard for the economy to function as well as it did before russia's invasion. and that means the government has had less tax money coming in and has become massively reliant on outside support. one of the biggest providers

of that is the ebrd. that's the european bank for reconstruction and development, the multilateral development bank. it was set up when the soviet union collapsed as a way for western countries to help eastern europe back on its feet. so i've been speaking to its president about how it's now helping ukraine. a real pleasure, my friend, having you on the show. let's start with this, because you were you were the first big boss of a multilateral development bank to visit kyiv since the war began. in fact, you were there in october of last year. we know president zelensky left you in no doubt about the scale of assistance that's needed. is it achievable? yes, i think it's achievable. i think what is important is to support ukraine now. and i think, one, the level of support and the commitment of countries supporting ukraine is amazing. and it's not only about military support, which is absolutely fundamental, but it's also about economic support, support for the government to be able to pay a civil servant, but also support to the economy.

and that's what we've been focusing on, which is really providing financial support to key infrastructure, such as the railway company, the electricity company which has been bombarded very regularly, has seen infrastructure under bombardment very regularly since october, but still is rebuilding and is able to provide electricity to the people of ukraine despite all the challenges. but given all of that and given the war is unfortunately still ongoing. the russians are engaging in massive destruction, and i realise it's difficult to totally cost reconstruction. butjust briefly, can you give us a rough estimate of what sort of number, what sort of numbers are we looking at here? it's very difficult because, as you are saying, the destruction is still ongoing. so figures are fluctuating every day.

i think the most robust assessment of the overall amount of destruction is the one done by the world bank and the eu in last autumn. then it was $350 billion of infrastructure, buildings and so destroyed. so i think this is the order of magnitude. it can be higher. if you look at the impact of loss of gdp and of course, it could be higher. and correct me if i'm wrong here, but you've agreed to commit up to more than $3 billion over 2022 and 23 to help ukraine's businesses and economyjust keep functioning. for the uninitiated, where does that money come from? so half of the money comes from our balance sheet, so we take the risk on as a bank and half comes with guarantees, grants from our key shareholders, us, but also european countries,

uk, france, germany, the european commission. norway has been also a very large contributor, the netherlands. so i mean, these are the key contributors that are accepted to cover half of the risk we are taking in the country. but i've got to ask you this, is the political will there? given some of the hesitancy that we've seen from from some european countries, also from some parts of the united states congress. i think we must acknowledge the efficiency of the president zelensky in his capacity to convince and to bring this political support to the country. by this i mean, capacity to connect and to explain the situation and get the support. so i think that the support remains very strong. of course, moving forward

is a challenge because it's a long term support that is needed with very high level of financial effort. so we always have to keep in mind what would be the counterfactual. so if it is not to succeed and if ukraine failed, in a way, the costs, the overall cost in terms of geopolitics, security situation, long term consequences. it would be huge. we have got the cost of living crisis and governments borrowing huge moneyjust to keep their economy is going, and this on top of the vast sums that were spent on covid and the lockdowns a couple of years ago, so how concerned are you that at some point the money is not going to be there to prop up one country such as ukraine?

governments, when they make the decision, they have got to take into account the context, and the new context is for example, that we will see an increase of military expenditure, and this is already happening. european countries realise that for their security, in this new world, they need to increase their military expenditure and that is continuing to support ukraine which is part of the effort to reflect and is part of the new geopolitical situation. where preserving security in this part of the world means providing support to ukraine. 0verall the world means providing support to ukraine. overall it is about the benefits of preserving long—term security, this is absolutely needed, and it makes sense. how do we make sure that ukraine isn'tjust saddled with unsustainable loan payments? i mean, that would be

a difficult question. and then it's very early to see the situation, because it very much depends on the duration of the war. but indeed, the question of the debt sustainability is a concern. i think that's why also we see some donors providing more grants. well, on that point, 0dile renaud, bassel, the big boss of the european bank of reconstruction and development. always a pleasure having you on the show. thanks for your time. i'll check in with you soon. thank you very much. well, that's it for this week. i hope you enjoyed the show. don't forget, you can keep up with all the latest on the global economy and the war in ukraine on the bbc news website and the smartphone app. of course, you can also follow me on twitter, tweet me, i'll tweet you back! you can get me @bbcaaron. thanks for watching. i'll see you soon. bye bye. hello.

well, it certainly feels on the chilly side today, particularly in the wind. and the sunshine has been somewhat hit and miss today as well. you can see rather a lot of cloud across many central, northern and eastern areas of the country. here's the forecast for this evening. that chilly breeze continues. even one or two showers. the skies will clear, particularly across western and central areas through the course of tonight. so there will be a touch of frost early in the morning. and then these are the mid morning temperatures, early to mid morning temperatures typically around i—5c. the forecast for tomorrow shows a few showers perhaps around the northeast of england, maybe the borders of scotland. but i think generally speaking, it's a dry day and a fairly bright one, too. again, quite chilly, but i think the winds won't be quite as strong tomorrow, so perhaps it'll feel a little less cold. the forecast then into monday shows very similar weather with that high pressure sticking around,

just the odd fleeting shower.

this is bbc news — welcome if you're watching here in the uk or around the globe. i'm frankie mccamley. our top stories: millions of nigerians have been voting in their country's most competitive election since military rule ended there more than two decades ago. china's plans for peace in ukraine cause ripples around the world — president zelensky says he wants to hear more — and the leader of russia's key ally belarus announces plans to fly to beijing. governments in london and dublin say talks over a brexit deal covering northern ireland have been �*positive' — raising hopes of an imminent new agreement on trade. i think the talks on reforming the

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