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tv   BBC News  BBC News  March 20, 2023 2:00am-2:31am GMT

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welcome to bbc news. i'm vishala sri—pathma. our top stories — switzerland's biggest bank, ubs, takes over its rival, credit suisse to help restore global financial stability. environmental scientists prepare to unveil eight years of work — showing the scale of the climate crisis. the temperature up here in the alps is rising by about twice the global average, it's already increased by two celsius and is having a devastating impact on the snow and ice up here. ukraine condemns president putin's surprise visit to the russian—occupied city of mariupol — devastated in the early months of the war. translation: like all - ukrainians, like all mariupol residents, ifeel that today a war criminal, whose name is vladimir putin, visited the scene of a crime he committed several months.
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it's been 20 years since the us led coalition began its war in iraq — to topple the dictator saddam hussein — we'll assess the legacy. and — valencia's streets come to life — for a five—day festival — celebrating the spanish city's culture — history — and people. switzerland's biggest bank, ubs, has agreed to take over its troubled rival, credit swiss. the rescue deal follows a weekend of emergency talks between the two banks, after credit swiss saw its value plummet over the past week. banking regulators hope the deal will restore confidence to the financial markets. credit suisse had been caught up in the market uncertainty triggered by the collapse,
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nine days ago, of america's silicon valley bank. here's the swiss president speaking at a press conference. on friday, the liquidity outflows and market volatility showed it was no longer possible to restore the necessary confidence, and that the swift and stabilising solution was absolutely necessary. this solution is a takeover of credit suisse by ubs. it is supported by the federal council, following several meetings with the swiss national bank, with our regulator, with credit suisse and ubs. we welcome this takeover, and support it, by guaranteeing the framework conditions necessary for its success. the federal council is therefore confident that in this difficult situation, the takeover of credit suisse
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by ubs is the best solution for restoring the confidence that has been lacking in financial markets recently, and for best managing the risk to our country and its citizens. so why is this deal so important? here's our business editor, simonjack well, how come credit suisse became the biggest and most important casualty of a situation that has already seen the failure of two mid—size us banks, silicon valley and signature bank, and the emergency whip—round for another, first republic bank? the main reason behind it all is this — global interest rates, these are us interest rates, after many years have been close to zero, have rocketed, as countries have tried to bring down inflation, caused mainly by higher energy prices, as russian energy was shut off or shunned. now that sudden change has hit the value of some
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of even the safest investments the banks keep some of their money in, so the big question is are we back to 2008, is this a rerun of the financial crisis? well, this is precisely what the authorities are trying to avert. they, in the us and in the uk, are tonight saying they support this particular deal, and they stress that banks are strong, much stronger than they were in 2008, and peoples�* savings and deposits are safe. we can now speak to danny blanchflower, who's a professor of economics at dartmouth college and previously sat on the bank of england's monetary policy committee. thank you forjoining us again. we have been talking about this for a while now. is this a repeat of the financial crisis in 2008? we keep being told and reassured by central banks that it is not. what is your view? well, let's hope it isn't, but the evidence seems to be
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pointing that way. a little too late, probably, the central banks have essentially caused this by raising rates too fast, so we've seen this attempt today to sort out credit suisse. one of the big stories is that it wiped out bondholders. well, what does that do? it means that bondholders who invested in the past see this as a much more risky investment, so the cost to everybody of borrowing has actually risen. this is equivalent probably, the whole affair is equivalent perhaps to global interest rates rising by two percentage points. so that is representing if you like a slowing of the global economy, and then if you look at the attempts in the united states, first republic bank you just talked about, they put in the $30 billion from other banks, on friday shares fell by a third, and snp havejust lowered their credit rating. so i think the big deal is we are going to find out over the next couple of days if it really is
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like 2008, and the question is can the authorities stop it? my suspicion is they are not going to be able to, not least because people are pulling deposits out of these regional banks in the united states, and putting them into big banks, so these regional banks are going to tumble one after another, unless the united states actually guarantees all deposits, and so that would be just enormous. so the worry is this is looking increasingly like 2008, but we're probably going to know by wednesday, i would say, when the fed meets. a lot of the central bankers and the people involved in that deal with credit suisse were hoping that actually by monday we would know the answer to that question, and the markets will give them a big thumbs up. the situation now, we have had from various central banks they are doing what they can, are you not reassured by that? hot you not reassured by that? not reall . you not reassured by that? not really- they —
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you not reassured by that? iirrt really. they should have been thinking about this, why did they know about this three weeks ago and four weeks ago to know —— to stop the chaos that has come this week? they said that kind of thing in 2008, and we had northern rock, and lehman brothers, and then we got the fall of rbs and lloyds will stop so they weren't able to stop it then. i think the other big worrying thing is ubs were actually given 9 billion swiss francs to take on credit suisse, basically to protect them from things that you and i don't even know that is there, so the danger is ubs are going to open the box and look inside and find really bad things, and other banks did business with credit suisse. british banks did business with them. what are we going to find? what are the repercussions of this deal? so yes, let's hope, but i bet you this is a broader, deeper problem than the central bankers are hoping and the difficulty will be, let's see what happens when the markets
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open tomorrow and i think it will be a bloodbath. fin open tomorrow and i think it will be a bloodbath.- will be a bloodbath. on an individual, _ will be a bloodbath. on an individual, you _ will be a bloodbath. on an individual, you mentioned| will be a bloodbath. on an i individual, you mentioned to assurances for individuals with money, clearly people will be concerned if they have savings or mortgages with banks. in terms of that, how well it in fact impact ordinary people? we have seen different countries respond differently to these sort of ongoing developments. well, obviously the worry is that if banks are in trouble, what are the central bank is going to do? think of the small banks in america. if you are sitting there, you should take your money out and move it to a very large bank. what about in the uk? if someone has £1 million in the bank account in the uk, is it safe? i'm clear, deposit insurance is not actually that high so hopefully all things will be fine but we don't really know, so people obviously should be concerned. we don't want to spread panic, but if you have a large amount
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of money in a bank, you might want to be really concerned, is my bank safe, is my bank going to be there tomorrow? think about it, if you were at silicon valley bank, roku had $5 billion of that bank account, they would have us that if the government didn't step in. it is going to have implications for people in terms of their pensions, with their pensions holding bonds at credit suisse? presumably many people's pension funds, there were $17 billion held in bonds that were wiped to zero. in terms of interest rates, what will happen now? markets are pricing interest rates cuts here and in europe? i have written a — here and in europe? i have written a piece _ here and in europe? i have written a piece for - here and in europe? i have written a piece for the - written a piece for the treasury select committee that is reported on in the guardian today. i think what we're seeing now is the necessity for central banks to cut rates. i think there is every prospect certainly in the us and the uk if monday and tuesday this week are as bad as i suspect they
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will be, far from are as bad as i suspect they will be, farfrom raising rates, they will have to cut rates, they will have to cut rates, and basically tell people, this problem was caused by wrongly raising rates too much for the wing and a prayer hope, just hoping that raising rates wasn't going to have an effect, but of course it was. ten years of low interest rates, people had invested in things that had low interest, think of mortgages, mortgage actually people were holding at two and now they have kicked up to six, so the central bank should have worked this out. i put it fully at the door of the bank of england, at the fed and the ecb. they raised rates too quickly. it was going to have consequences and they kept saying, no it won't, it will be fine, it will be a soft landing, and basically they've got it wrong, so i put it entirely at the door of the central banks, and they are going to have to do screeching u—turn is, they will have to do interest rate cuts, stop quantitative tightening, they will have to loosen and compensate for the fact that also fiscal authorities are actually tightening as well. so
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everything jeremy hunt dead in his budget makes matters much worse. . ~' his budget makes matters much worse. ., ~ i. ., his budget makes matters much worse. ., ~ ., ., worse. thank you for “oining us. worse. thank you for “oining semi worse. thank you for “oining sorry to�* worse. thank you for “oining us. sorry to depress _ worse. thank you forjoining us. sorry to depress you - worse. thank you forjoiningj us. sorry to depress you all! environmental scientists around the world spent the last eight years analysing evidence about the climate crisis. their work for the united nations will be revealed this monday, in the town of interlaken, high in the swiss alps. the report will become the benchmark for all discussions by politicians and governments on how to respond to the growing threat the planet faces. and as our climate editor justin rowlatt has been discovering, there's already clear evidence of dramatic change in the surrounding alpine environment. dave searle is climbing an ice face, high in the alps. his safety depends on the strength of the ice. you're listening for a good thunk, and making sure that the ice axe isn't wobbly. but the ice in the high mountains of europe
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and the world is changing. for me, it's been quite shocking, how fast it's been developing. the winters arejust much more mild. we're getting rain higher up the mountain. the greenhouse gases emitted since the industrial revolution have already raised global temperatures by a little over one degree, but the effects are even greater in the alps. that's because, as the snow melts, the ground absorbs more heat. the temperature up here in the alps is rising by about twice the global average. it has already increased by 2 celsius, and it is having a devastating impact on the snow and ice up here. at an observatory, 3.5km up this swiss mountain, they've been monitoring the changing alpine climate for decades. 30 years ago, it never rained, but nowadays in summer, very often, there is rain,
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even up here at 3,500 metres. wow. yep. last year, the ice melt hit a new record. the glaciers of the alps lost 6% of their total volume. the very best forecastl for the future of alpine glaciers is that we can save about one third i of the ice falling. this is the best case. in the worst case, we'rel going to lose everything. look how the glacier below the weather station is expected to retreat over the next few decades in that worst—case scenario. so, what does dr huss think the message from the un scientists should be? action is now urgently needed. for the glaciers, we see - the effects of climate change. this is illustrating how| urgent it is to act now. this landscape appears eternal — literally frozen in time. but without dramatic reductions
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in greenhouse gas emissions, the ice up here at the top of europe will be lost forever. justin rowlatt, bbc news, in the swiss alps. exactly 20 years ago, us forces, with the uk and other allies, invaded iraq in order to oust the dictator saddam hussein. it was part of the us' war on terror, begun by president george w bush in the wake of the terrorist attacks of september 11th 2001. the first raids were on the capital baghdad — it took the us just over a month to overwhelm iraqi forces, and for saddam's ba'athist government to collapse. but the effects of the war have been hugely controversial. our international editorjeremy bowen is in baghdad — here's his assessment of war�*s legacy on iraq. iraq went through a catastrophe. hundreds of thousands of people were killed, no—one knows exactly how many. the consequences spread violence elsewhere in the middle east.
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they still rumble on. iraq is a highly corrupt, violent and fragile society. it's had a better year so far in 2023, but the foundations left by the legacy of all that killing are fragile, and people constantly worry that they might slide back into some kind of internecine fight or the risks of foreign intervention. iran is particularly influential here, its allies run the government. jeremy bowen speaking from baghdad. joining me now is douglas silliman. he is is president of the arab gulf states institute in washington. he previously served as us ambassador to iraq. thank you forjoining us. in terms of reflection and clearly you have been closely involved, where do you think the us will
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feel things have gone right and gone wrong?— gone wrong? first of all, the decision to _ gone wrong? first of all, the decision to watch _ gone wrong? first of all, the decision to watch the - gone wrong? first of all, the | decision to watch the invasion get —— launch the invasion was ill—conceived, part of the reason was american policymakers never really defined the reasons for the war for the american public and for themselves either. they did not do a very good job of planning for the day after a successful invasion, there was an assumption right could somehow fall back into place and become stable even though the united states and allies had overthrown the government i think from the very beginning, the lack of clear goals and the lack of preparation for the day after set a very bad precedent for what was going to subsequently happen. for what was going to subseuuentl ha en. ., , subsequently happen. there was some sunport. — subsequently happen. there was some support, the _ subsequently happen. there was some support, the us _ subsequently happen. there was some support, the us was - subsequently happen. there was some support, the us was able i some support, the us was able to get the support of the uk for example and also critics and people that suffered under
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saddam hussein were happy to see him go. do you think there are some positives there, clearly you don't feel there was a huge amount of support initially, do you think overall, it has been a positive move? i overall, it has been a positive move? ~ ., ., , ., , move? i think that many iraqis see the overthrow— move? i think that many iraqis see the overthrow of _ move? i think that many iraqis see the overthrow of the - move? i think that many iraqis i see the overthrow of the saddam hussein regime which had been quite a repressive regime especially for the shi'ite community and iraqi kurds and a number of minority communities, many iraqis applauded the overthrow of saddam hussein. i also think the expected united states and the uk and others involved in the invasion to sit iraq right, to make it look like the west and a short period of time. and as i said there was really no concrete plan to do that, and frankly imposing a western style parliamentary democracy on the political system left by saddam
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hussein was a very difficult task to begin with. now, i think what has gone right, as all iraqis are a bit more empowered than they were before, and in particular, iraqi youth, who are facing great pressure from climate change, from the lack of the development of iraq's economy, have begun to protest and explain to the iraqi government very directly what they want to see in the future. and while i'm not very happy with what has happened in the intervening 20 years, a lot of young iraqis are looking to try to find ways to have a better future going forward. . ~ to have a better future going forward. ., ~ , ., to have a better future going forward. . ~' , ., , to have a better future going forward. ., ~ i. , . forward. thank you very much, fascinating _ forward. thank you very much, fascinating to _ forward. thank you very much, fascinating to talk _ forward. thank you very much, fascinating to talk to _ forward. thank you very much, fascinating to talk to you. - fascinating to talk to you. stay with us, valencia's streets come to life or a five day festival celebrating the spanish city's culture, history and people.
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applause. i'm so proud of both of you. let there be no more war or bloodshed between arabs and israelis. with great regret, the committee has decided that south africa will be excluded from the 1970 competition. chanting. streaking across the sky, the white—hot wreckage from mir drew gasps from onlookers on fiji.
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this is bbc news. the latest headlines: switzerland's biggest bank, ubs, has taken over its rival, credit suisse, to help restore global financial stability. russia's president vladimir putin and china's president xi jinping are scheduled to meet in moscow on monday. it's the first time the leaders have met face—to—face since the beginning of the ukraine war. the two—day visit comes as beijing, an ally of russia, offered proposals to end the war. meanwhile, ukraine has condemned mr putin's visit to the devastated city of mariupol. an aide to president zelensky called him a criminal returning to the scene of his crime. our diplomatic correspondent james landale reports from kyiv. vladimir putin arrived in mariupol by helicopter,
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at least according to pictures broadcast by russian state television. then he drove himself into the city amid tight security on what's thought to be his first known visit to parts of ukraine seized by russian forces after last year's invasion. in the darkened streets, he met what were described as local residents. the bbc can't verify who they were. the kremlin said it was a "spontaneous visit". "we need to start getting to know each other better," mr putin said. "we pray for you," one woman said. "finally, you are here. we have waited for you so long." mr putin was invited inside to see one of their homes, seemingly a new apartment — the aim, it would appear, to show a city being rebuilt after last year's devastation. for this is what mariupol looked like last year after three months of russian bombardment,
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during which ukrainian fighters held out here at the azovstal steel plant — their long defence a symbol of ukrainian resilience. it was here, too, where russian forces bombed a maternity hospital — an early alleged war crime — along with a theatre where hundreds of civilians were sheltering and died. here in kyiv, the mayor of mariupol told me how he felt seeing mr putin in his city. translation: like all ukrainians, i feel that today, a war criminal whose name is vladimir putin visited the scene of a crime he committed for several months — destroying the city of mariupol. the only city russian aviation is carpet bombing is mariupol. this is what parts of mariupol actually look like — contemporary images from local residents showing still—ruined tower blocks.
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long lines of people queuing for food. all in stark contrast to the reconstruction that mr putin did get to see, including a theatre that had been rebuilt. under bright street lights, he was also shown a playground, only days after he was accused by international prosecutors of illegally deporting thousands of children from occupied parts of ukraine to russia. james landale, bbc news, kyiv. let's get some of the day's other news. an extradition hearing has begun in australia in the case of a former us marine pilot accused of helping train members of the chinese military. last year, australian authorities approved a request by the us to extradite daniel duggan, who became an australian citizen in 2012. mr duggan denies the charges, president macron of france faces no—confidence motions on monday after his government pushed through an unpopular rise in the state pension age.
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there have been weeks of protests and several nights of unrest. a day of nationwide industrial action is scheduled for thursday. it's been described as "five days and nights of madness and partying" with build up events for weeks beforehand, and now the spanish extravaganza known as las fallas festival has drawn to a close as stephanie prentice reports. and a warning, there are flashing images coming up. fireworks explode. the last day of an extravaganza, with colourful sculptures, some costing $200,000, burned to the ground. by day, the main streets of valencia have been a continuous street party, with processions combining satire and art.
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and these colourful firecrackers hung in the streets and let off day and night. when i was injapan and taking the spanish course, i see about a little movie about this. so i really want to see it in real. so i'm really happy to see it in real. i love the creations, and the people, these streets are so crowded, it's so interesting. i want to see what's going to happen because it's my first time here. the festival traces its origins back to 11197, but this year is being credited with igniting southern eastern spain's tourism industry. 2023 marks the first year that it's back to full strength since the pandemic. and as local valencians say, it's what rises from the ashes that counts. stephanie prentice, bbc news. that looks like a lot of fun. that's it for us from now. you can reach me on my socials on
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instagram and twitter. want to tweet me if you are at that festival. i'm @ bbcvishalasp. thank you for watching. hello. we'll need our raincoats and brollies this week. it really does look very unsettled indeed, and especially wet in western parts of the uk. monday is no different. i don't think it's going to be raining all the time, but certainly some rain on the way and just a few glimmers of brightness. a lot of cloud streaming in our direction but you can see it's coming in from the southwest, hence it stays mild. and multiple weather fronts crossing the country through the course of monday. more weather fronts out in the atlantic making a beeline for the uk. so the forecast then for monday shows mild conditions early in the morning. temperatures around five degrees in stornoway, nine in plymouth. and see where the heavier rain is in the morning across parts of northern england, southwestern scotland and northern ireland. that's one weather front,
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you can see it moves northwards. and then in the southwest later in the day, showers gather across cornwall, devon, parts of southern wales by around about 3pm. the best chance of any brightness would be across parts of the midlands, maybe east anglia, lincolnshire, perhaps yorkshire, and this is where will have the mildest weather up to about 16 celsius. elsewhere, the thicker cloud and the outbreaks of rain, it won't be quite as mild, closer to around 10—12 degrees. much fresher conditions in the north of scotland, with some sunshine in lerwick, about six or seven. through the course of monday evening, it does look as that rain would be more widespread and heavy as it spreads across the uk. here's tuesday's weather map, and a broad area of low pressure across the atlantic, sending weather fronts in our direction, quite a few isobars there, so that means the winds will be freshening as we go through tuesday and into wednesday. on tuesday, we are between weather systems, so one out in the north sea, another one here approaching ireland. we are in between with some sunny spells, but also some showers. you can see heavy showers in one or two areas.
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again, very mild, 13 or 1a, perhaps 15 degrees. through the course of the evening, the next weather front starts to sweep towards more eastern areas. through the course of wednesday, that big low pressure still dominating the weather across the atlantic. it's like a washing machine of clouds and showers circulating areas of low pressure. so, a very breezy day as well and gale force winds are possible around some western coasts. so, here's an overview of the week ahead, you can see most days have rain icons but, at least, it is relatively on the mild side. bye— bye.
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this is bbc news. the headlines — central banks in europe and north america have welcomed a government—backed deal in switzerland for the country's biggest bank, ubs, to take over its rival, credit suisse. the $3 billion deal was announced after emergency talks. there's been a subdued start to the week's trading on financial markets. environmental scientists from around the world, who have spent the last eight years analysing evidence about climate change, are due to unveil their work at the un. their report is expected to become the benchmark for discussions by governments on how to respond to the threat. president putin's visit to the devastated city of mariupol has been condemned by ukraine. an aide to president zelensky called the russian president
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a criminal returning to the crime scene.

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