optimistic and yet pessimistic, the imf paints a fuzzy picture forward for the global economy. we will have the latest. plus, too big to ignore, spain's vice—president speaks to the bbc on china and the shift in the international world order. hello and welcome to asia business report. i'm karishma vaswani. ourtop business report. i'm karishma vaswani. our top story for you today, the international monetary fund has worn that global growth is expected to slow to levels not seen since the 1990s. in his latest report, the imf says chronic

inflation and high interest rates, and banking instability have contributed to this year's gloomy economic forecast stock but it is a global recession is not likely stop business reporter katie silver has been looking into this story for us and joins me now on the programme with the details. great to get you on the show. talk through what you have seen today. 50 talk through what you have seen toda . ~ ., , talk through what you have seen toda . ~ .,, , today. so the imf has seen it has been _ today. so the imf has seen it has been a — today. so the imf has seen it has been a perilous - today. so the imf has seen it i has been a perilous combination of vulnerabilities and they are calling on central banks around the world to keep monetary policy tight and that means high interest rates in order to stave off dental economic crisis or a decrease in economic growth. so the fund has revised their forecast for this year and next, lowering both from what was predicted in january by one tenth of a percentage point, they are predicting a 2023 will see economic growth in the order of 2.8% and next year 3%. they are saying this is because of weaker economic growth and some of the world's largest economies, the likes of germany, brazil, india, japan,

as as potential crises or vulnerabilities when it comes to the banking sector. one of the bright sparks was they were saying the us and indeed the uk economy are doing better than expected, but this will all depend on what was he going forward when it comes to the attempts to control inflation as well as the cost of energy given the ongoing conflict in ukraine. ., given the ongoing conflict in ukraine. . ,, ., ukraine. katie silver, thanks forjoining — ukraine. katie silver, thanks forjoining us— ukraine. katie silver, thanks forjoining us on _ ukraine. katie silver, thanks forjoining us on the - ukraine. katie silver, thanks forjoining us on the show. ukraine. katie silver, thanks l forjoining us on the show with that update. for a closer look at the projections, particularly in this part of the world, we can speak to krishna v nevaeh austin and he joins me on the programme. thank you so much forjoining us on asia business report. i don't know how much of my colleague's assessment you are able to hear their particular when she was talking about the imf saying countries like india and japan, the outlook is a bit lower than we have seen before, how do you see the rest of asia panning out?— panning out? sorry, couldn't hear what — panning out? sorry, couldn't hear what your _ panning out? sorry, couldn't hear what your reporter -

panning out? sorry, couldn't hear what your reporter said | hear what your reporter said earlier, let me report for asia we have growth at ii.i6's in 2023, this reflects a couple of big changes, emerging markets in asia we have growth at 4.3% and four the advance we have i.6%, this is an adjustment upwards of 0.4 percentage points for emerging markets and lowerfor points for emerging markets and lower for advanced economies points for emerging markets and lowerfor advanced economies in lower for advanced economies in asia. lowerfor advanced economies in asia. now, for emerging markets, the big news for china where we have increased production sent —— the projection from 4.4% from 2 october by 20% now. this reflects largely a rebound in consumption following owner opening of the economy forced economic restraints being lifted, so we have consumption led growth or projected consumption led growth in china which will provide the rest of the region in asia. it's interesting you say that,

because a little earlier i was speaking with an economist alicia garcia—herrero, at natixis bank and she was saying china's economic outlook is not that strong and it can't preferred the booze that many hoped it would for the global economy. in hoped it would for the global economy-— economy. in fact, other countries _ economy. in fact, other countries might -- - economy. in fact, other countries might -- the| economy. in fact, other. countries might -- the biz. countries might —— the biz. have a listen to what she said stop frankly speaking, because china is in a slowdown we need to find other sources, other engines of growth and we know that asean and india are there basically as major higher growth environments or economies than china. what she was saying there, if you're finding it a little difficult to listen to the, is asean and india are the areas of growth that she sees providing that fillip to the global economy where china has some real structural problems going ahead. i structural problems going ahead. ~' ., structural problems going ahead. ~ ., . ~' ahead. i think we need to make ahead. i think we need to make a distinction _ ahead. i think we need to make a distinction here, _ ahead. i think we need to make a distinction here, what - ahead. i think we need to make

a distinction here, what i - ahead. i think we need to make a distinction here, what i was . a distinction here, what i was talking about was the growth projection for 2023, where we had earlier 4.4% and now we have 5.2%. and one factor to note is every time china's growth goes up by one percentage point, the rest of asia goes zero and three percentage points over the medium term. that said, we have lowered our forecast for growth in china over the medium term below 4%, so that is what really she was talking about, but of course you also have countries like india, which are going pretty fast at five x 9% in 2023 -- going pretty fast at five x 9% in 2023 —— growing. we need to discuss the short—term fillip to the medium—term headwinds in asia. i to the medium-term headwinds in asia. ~ ., , to the medium-term headwinds in asia. ~ . , ., ., , asia. i think that is a really aood asia. i think that is a really good point- _ asia. i think that is a really good point. just _ asia. i think that is a really good point. just finally, - asia. i think that is a really good point. just finally, ifi good point. just finally, if you don't mind, outline some of the challenges as we go forward into this year and into 2024. so i think, talking specifically about asia, i will say a couple of things we need to worry about, one is headline

inflation, inflation in asia is coming down, headline inflation is coming down, but core inflation is well above central bank tige simmons economies of the region. and we expect core inflation to be sticky. there are a couple of forces at work. one is in asia in many countries, they're closing countries, they�* re closing close, countries, they're closing close, and significantly back of the position which happened last year. what we find is when inflation is high the exchange can be quite long and hard, so these factors lead us to believe that core inflation or underlying inflation in asia could be sticky, which means that countries in the region have to tackle this by continuing with the base tightening, so higherfor tightening, so higher for longer tightening, so higherfor longer is what we would say is the monetary policy in asia. that is the first factor, the second factor is debt levels in

asia have risen quite a lot from the pandemic, pre—pandemic a's share of it was 3.5%, now altis re—buy daveson, that is debt across public—sector balance sheets, and other balance sheets, and other balance sheets. so in the context of high interest rates that could be a significant headwind for growth in some parts of asia.— headwind for growth in some parts of asia. right. and when we will be _ parts of asia. right. and when we will be looking _ parts of asia. right. and when we will be looking at very - we will be looking at very closely on asia business report. for now, thank you very much forjoining us. krishna srinivasan, the imf director for the asia—pacific region. the spanish vice presidents as the means of the chinese economy means it cannot be overlooked and there has been a tectonic shift in the international world order. north america business correspondence samira hussain was speaking to her on the sidelines of the meeting. indie sidelines of the meeting. we cannot just — sidelines of the meeting. - cannotjust ignore the chinese economy. it is one of our main

if not our main trading partner. it is a very large economy. it is a very important player. we have every interest in engaging constructively and at this point in time i think we have two top priorities in this regard, visible to engage, to ensure that china engages in a constructive manner to put in an to the war and to avoid trading and fragmentation that slows down growth and makes us walk backwards and lose all the progress we have achieved in the last decade thanks to international trade.- the last decade thanks to international trade. how do the fra ed international trade. how do the frayed relations _ international trade. how do the frayed relations between - international trade. how do the frayed relations between the i frayed relations between the united states and china impact other countries? indie united states and china impact other countries?— other countries? we are living throu~h other countries? we are living through a _ other countries? we are living through a massive _ other countries? we are living through a massive technology| through a massive technology shift in international world order and it is clear there are new superpowers and there are important changes, geopolitical, geo— economic tensions, so multilateral institutions have a key role to

play in ensuring that we are all round the same table, we engage constructively and find common solutions to global challenges —— tectonic. common solutions to global challenges -- tectonic. using the united — challenges -- tectonic. using the united states _ challenges -- tectonic. using the united states should - challenges -- tectonic. using - the united states should remove any trade barriers it has with china? i any trade barriers it has with china? ~ ., , china? i think that putting trade barriers _ china? i think that putting trade barriers and - china? i think that putting l trade barriers and resorting china? i think that putting - trade barriers and resorting to nationalistic policies and market fragmentation, we have lived through this and we know it impoverished us all. so we all should have a rules—based international order trade framework that works to the benefit of citizens throughout the world. benefit of citizens throughout the world-— benefit of citizens throughout the world. ., ., ., , ., the world. how worried are you about trade _ the world. how worried are you about trade protectionism? - about trade protectionism 7 history about trade protectionism? history has taught us that trade protectionism is not good for any of the parties. we have every interest in ensuring there is a rules —based international trade framework that works to the benefit of all countries and all citizens throughout the world. in other stories we're _ throughout the world. in other stories we're india's _ throughout the world. in other stories we're india's reporting | stories we're india's reporting inflation numbers for march lead on and prizes the are expected to have moderated after remaining elevated for several months. our india

business correspondent has more. inflation is expected to dip below the upper tolerated limit, it is expected to come in at about five as opposed to 6.4% in the last month because according to a consensus estimate of economists polled by reuters, this is largely driven by moderation in food prices which account for about half of overall inflation a dip in vegetable prices is expected to have brought down food inflation, but the cost of fuel has gone up recently and that would push up overall inflation again according to economists. lastly, the reserve bank of india kept rates on hold after six consecutive heights, surprisingly markets which were expecting a zero 25% increase in rates. the governor did say to the central banks the job was not finished and the war against inflation had to continue given that it had proven to be more sticky than expected. the reserve bank of india expect inflation to remain at about 5.2% in

financial year 2024, which began on i april. nikhil inamdar, bbc news, mumbai. that is it from us, goodbye. reading. it is not something becomes easierfor reading. it is not something becomes easier for everyone. and for 35—year—old aaron it has been a struggle. i and for 35-year-old aaron it has been a struggle.- has been a struggle. i was really scared, _ has been a struggle. i was really scared, i've - has been a struggle. i was really scared, i've felt - really scared, i've felt embarrassed, quite silly, if i'm honest, but now i'm as far as what i am i'm proud of myself for doing it.- as what i am i'm proud of myself for doing it. twice a week aaron _ myself for doing it. twice a week aaron has _ myself for doing it. twice a week aaron has a - myself for doing it. twice a week aaron has a session l myself for doing it. twice a i week aaron has a session with coach and who helps in breakdown big and complicated words. 50 breakdown big and complicated words, , ., ., breakdown big and complicated words-_ and - breakdown big and complicated words._ and he l words. so legislation. and he is doinu words. so legislation. and he is doing this _ words. so legislation. and he is doing this for _ words. so legislation. and he is doing this for one - words. so legislation. and he is doing this for one very i is doing this for one very special person.— is doing this for one very special person. i've got a little girl _ special person. i've got a little girl and _ special person. i've got a little girl and she - special person. i've got a little girl and she likes i special person. i've got a| little girl and she likes me special person. i've got a i little girl and she likes me to read books and stuff like that, like peppa pig, ben and holly,

hey dougie. and because they couldn't read properly they seized the opportunity to learn how to read better.— how to read better. and, a retired speech _ how to read better. and, a retired speech therapist, l retired speech therapist, wanted to use her skills to help people like aaron. i wanted to use her skills to help people like aaron. i am in awe of the _ help people like aaron. i am in awe of the people _ help people like aaron. i am in awe of the people who - help people like aaron. i am in awe of the people who come . awe of the people who come along because they are so brave to start it in the first place and hold their hand up and say i need's emell. the and hold their hand up and say i need's emell.— i need's emell. the bbc's learning _ i need's emell. the bbc's learning to _ i need's emell. the bbc's learning to read - i need's emell. the bbc's learning to read a - i need's emell. the bbc's learning to read a 51 i i need's emell. the bbc's learning to read a 51 with| i need's emell. the bbc's i learning to read a 51 with joe learning to read a 51withjoe blaze also quite the impact on people and reading groups in this region went from six and 2021 to 15 at the end of 2022. and there is one more thing aaron wants you to know, if i can do it, anybody can do it. hi, i'm kirsty with the catch up. four days of strikes byjunior doctors have started across england, they want a 35% pay increase, the union

representing them say they have had 15 years of below inflation pay rises. health secretary steve barclay says he won't talk to unions until they scrap the what he calls unreasonable demands. and he says the government is to focus on slowing down how quickly prices are rising. next, 1 million smokers in england are going to be offered a free vaping starter kit by the government. the hope is that less than 5% of people will smoke cigarettes by 2030. but charities have warned that swapping cigarettes for vapes is nowhere near sufficient in stopping addiction. the plans also want to tackle underage vape sales and illegal vape product. some other stories now. and logan paul signed a new multi—year deal with wwe. when he firstjoined back injuly, lots of people thought it was just a bit of a pr stunt, but it looks like he is serious about it and the fans say he has got talent. and millie bobby brown is engaged.

the 19—year—old stranger things actress posted this picture with her boyfriend jake bongiovi, who she has been dating for 2.5 years. it is time now to leave you with ten seconds of fossils. i promise it is not from a blocked toilet, scientists say this is a squirrel from about 30,000 years ago. they reckon it died while hibernating back in the ice age. you are all caught up now, have a good night.

hello, i'm paul scott at the bbc sport centre. coming up on this programme: a masterclass in manchester as city thrash bayern munich to take control of their champions league quarterfinal. benfica get the blues as inter milan take control of their tie, winning 2—0 in portugal. and not quite convincing on the clay — novak djokovic begins his monte carlo masters campaign with a win, but calls his victory ugly. hello and welcome along to the programme. lots to get through.

we will start with football and what was a big night