i had a better seat than a lot of the seats in the abbey. 91 years old and still playing. now a chelsea pensioner, basil king was amongst the crowds lining the procession route on coronation day, as trumpeter with the royal military band. there was excitement around | and i felt a little bit proud that i had been on such an occasion. i was only one out of thousands, but the lads in the band, - all of those from the school - of music, they were all of the same mind that it was a great day, apart from the weather. - universally modest about their contributions, they will all be watching closely tomorrow.

this programme continues on bbc one. or power. —— labour say that they are preparing for power. labour wins back chunks of the red wall in the north of england and also makes new inroads into bastions of conservative brexit support in the south east, such as medway. this was blair land. is it now starmer land?

cheering and crucially, is the rest of middle england starmer land? it's labour land, and crucially, we haven't won here in medway, since 1998. the lib dems lay siege to the backyards of tory big beasts, flipping councils containing the seats of michael gove and theresa may. and yet the underlying trends in these english elections might also suggest keir starmer not heading for a clear majority in a general election. speaker we'll conduct a full post—mortem with the three main parties involved asking if this more than just the latest turn in the political cycle, but the start of a more fundamental structural change. and we pick through the consequences of it all good evening, 1,040 councillors lost in england — on any objective measure that represents a local election drubbing for the conservative party,

especially as the starting point was the already significant losses inherited from thresa may in 2019. this is a figure already worse even than the expectation management number briefed by tory campaigners. but it is notjust about the numbers — it is the names and places — swindon, medway, dover, iconic swing—seat territory gained by labour from conservatives for the first time since the blair era. and then elsewhere, the conservatives under attack from liberal democrats and greens too — losing surrey heath, even windsor and maidenhead. all of this raises a more fundamental question about both sides of the government's 2019 majority coalition being eaten away by different opposition parties, and the impact of what could be demographic change in what was the true blue south of england. the pm acknowledged the disappointment before a busy day of hosting world heads of state ahead of the coronation. but even as some projections suggest labour did not perform well enough to be heading for a majority, serious questions arise about rishi sunak�*s own crown. nick has been testing

the water in medway. a timeless feel and a familiar routine on the waters in the shadow of change online. kier on the pier as labour marched back into the bellwether medway towns. ., �* , . . towns. you didn't 'ust march in, you blew the doors off. this was blair land. is it now starmer land? cheering and crucially, is the rest of middle england starmer land? it's labour land, and crucially, we haven't won here in medway, since 1998. and that is an incredible tribute to the labour party here, the quality of the candidates but notjust here in medway, in plymouth we have had a stunning result, in stoke, in middlesbrough, these as you know are the key battlegrounds going into the

next general election and that is why it is absolutely clear from these results that we are on course for a majority labour government at the next general election. fire for a majority labour government at the next general election.— the next general election. are you confident it _ the next general election. are you confident it is _ the next general election. are you confident it is a _ the next general election. are you confident it is a slam _ the next general election. are you confident it is a slam dunk, - the next general election. are you confident it is a slam dunk, some| confident it is a slam dunk, some people say that your lead may not be in tony blair territory. look people say that your lead may not be in tony blair territory.— in tony blair territory. look at the results, in tony blair territory. look at the results. the _ in tony blair territory. look at the results, the way _ in tony blair territory. look at the results, the way that _ in tony blair territory. look at the results, the way that we - in tony blair territory. look at the results, the way that we have - in tony blair territory. look at the | results, the way that we have won here in medway, the places we have been winning, key battlegrounds, it is absolutely clear in my mind that we have changed the labour party and earned the trust and confidence of voters and this is absolutely clear that we are now on the part of that majority labour government at the next general election. an next general election. an ecstatic welcome for _ next general election. an ecstatic welcome for keir _ next general election. an ecstatic welcome for keir starmer - next general election. an ecstatic welcome for keir starmer and - welcome for keir starmer and chatham. he says labour is back in business here after labour failed to win here since 2010. the question is whether the party is back in business in other parts of england. labour success... we business in other parts of england. labour success. . ._ business in other parts of england. labour success... we have a perfect storm. labour success... we have a perfect storm- and — labour success... we have a perfect storm- and a _ labour success... we have a perfect storm. and a tory _ labour success... we have a perfect storm. and a tory postmortem - labour success... we have a perfectl storm. and a tory postmortem about the ast storm. and a tory postmortem about the past and — storm. and a tory postmortem about

the past and present. _ storm. and a tory postmortem about the past and present. rishi _ storm. and a tory postmortem about the past and present. rishi sunak- the past and present. rishi sunak shows himself _ the past and present. rishi sunak shows himself to _ the past and present. rishi sunak shows himself to be _ the past and present. rishi sunak shows himself to be a _ the past and present. rishi sunak shows himself to be a safe - the past and present. rishi sunak shows himself to be a safe pair i the past and present. rishi sunak shows himself to be a safe pair of hands and has set out five things he wants to achieve but rome was not built in a day and this will not happen overnight stop it can take a lot more than six months to put some of those things in place, things like stop the boats, good sound bite, but kent and to a lesser extent medway, kent is flooded with boat people on a daily basis, and people have just about had enough of it. people have 'ust about had enough of it. ., ., pilin: it. three, two, one... piling pressure — it. three, two, one... piling pressure on _ it. three, two, one... piling pressure on the _ it. three, two, one... piling pressure on the tories - it. three, two, one... piling pressure on the tories as i it. three, two, one... pilingl pressure on the tories as the it. three, two, one... piling - pressure on the tories as the lib dems celebrated their success. friends, this is a wonderful morning _ friends, this is a wonderful morning. liberal— friends, this is a wonderfull morning. liberal democrats friends, this is a wonderful- morning. liberal democrats making bil morning. liberal democrats making big gains— morning. liberal democrats making big gains across _ morning. liberal democrats making big gains across the _ morning. liberal democrats making big gains across the country. - morning. liberal democrats making big gains across the country.- big gains across the country. bacon sandwiches — big gains across the country. bacon sandwiches for _ big gains across the country. bacon sandwiches for the _ big gains across the country. bacon sandwiches for the troops, - big gains across the country. bacon sandwiches for the troops, hand . sandwiches for the troops, hand delivered by a solemn prime minister downplaying the results. i will delivered by a solemn prime minister downplaying the results.— downplaying the results. i will not be takin: downplaying the results. i will not be taking any _ downplaying the results. i will not be taking any maceo _ downplaying the results. i will not

be taking any maceo brown - downplaying the results. i will not be taking any maceo brown spelll downplaying the results. i will not. be taking any maceo brown spell of opinion towards the labour party or excitement for their policies, we are pursuing policies that are this government's priorities and that is what you are going to deliver. in what you are going to deliver. in the end, labourwinning what you are going to deliver. in the end, labour winning 35% of the national vote projected in england with the conservatives on 26%, and nine point labour lead. the lib dems on 20%. . . . ., ., on 20%. labour have hit a lot of the taruets on 20%. labour have hit a lot of the targets they — on 20%. labour have hit a lot of the targets they would _ on 20%. labour have hit a lot of the targets they would be _ on 20%. labour have hit a lot of the targets they would be wanting - on 20%. labour have hit a lot of the targets they would be wanting to i targets they would be wanting to hit. that is the best they have managed in this period of opposition. it is better than most oppositions have managed but not as good as david cameron achieved an opposition before taking office and not as good as tony blair achieved an opposition, before taking office either. ., . j , , either. one of the day's number crunchers _ either. one of the day's number crunchers says _ either. one of the day's number crunchers says labour _ either. one of the day's number crunchers says labour faces - either. one of the day's number crunchers says labour faces an l crunchers says labour faces an historic task.— historic task. one of the challenging _ historic task. one of the challenging things - historic task. one of the challenging things for i historic task. one of the l challenging things for keir historic task. one of the _ challenging things for keir starmer in this coming general election is

he has to do in one leap, what labour achieved in several stages in the 1980s and 90s. just to get to majority of one, he needs a swing, as large as tony blair achieved in 1997, to win a landslide majority, so it is a really high bar to clear. a commentator sees a twin challenge for the tories. a commentator sees a twin challenge for the tcries-— for the tories. they will have quite a tou . h for the tories. they will have quite a tough sort _ for the tories. they will have quite a tough sort of _ for the tories. they will have quite a tough sort of attack _ for the tories. they will have quite a tough sort of attack for - for the tories. they will have quite a tough sort of attack for the - a tough sort of attack for the liberal— a tough sort of attack for the liberal democrats in sees in what has been — liberal democrats in sees in what has been termed the blue wall, seats were historically the lib dems have done quite — were historically the lib dems have done quite well but not in recent years— done quite well but not in recent years and — done quite well but not in recent years and with the lib dems you are releasing _ years and with the lib dems you are releasing them starting to shake off the unpopularity that they attracted as a result of going into coalition with the — as a result of going into coalition with the conservatives, then you have _ with the conservatives, then you have labour doing quite well in some of those _ have labour doing quite well in some of those six _ have labour doing quite well in some of those six borisjohnson one, in 2019 _ of those six boris johnson one, in 2019. , ., , of those six boris johnson one, in 2019. , ., y ., of those six boris johnson one, in 2019. , ., ., , 2019. history and patriotism in the heart of middle _ 2019. history and patriotism in the heart of middle england. - 2019. history and patriotism in the heart of middle england. once - heart of middle england. once difficult terrain for labour, no

contemplating change. —— now contemplating change. —— now contemplating change. in a moment i'll be talking to labour's anneliese dodds and then helen morgan from the liberal democrats, but first, the policing minister chris philpjoins me. it is not your first interview today. i know that you will say this has been disappointing and you would deliver on those five tests but how are you going to change as a result of what is quite compressive rejection stop speaker back —— of what is quite compressive rejection stop speaker back —- their rejection stop speaker back -- their results are — rejection stop speaker back —— ii�*uéi " results are disappointing, but the point the outgoing medway council leader made, halving inflation, growing the economy, cutting hospital waiting lists and stopping the boats, that's what the public wants but the prime minister only made those pleasures three months ago and what we have to do is a government to show the public we are serious about doing those things, i know that rishi sunak is serious, thought they could and driven and what we have to do for the next election, saying autumn 2024, i do

not have inside information, and speculating, but it is, we have 18 months to show the public we have delivered on most things, and if we do, they will respond positively to that. �* do, they will respond positively to that. . , ., do, they will respond positively to that. �* , do, they will respond positively to that. . , . do, they will respond positively to that. , . , . , that. are you sure that the strategy doesnt that. are you sure that the strategy doesn't change? _ that. are you sure that the strategy doesn't change? delivery _ that. are you sure that the strategy doesn't change? delivery of - doesn't change? delivery of those five promises _ doesn't change? delivery of those five promises is _ doesn't change? delivery of those five promises is right _ doesn't change? delivery of those five promises is right thing - doesn't change? delivery of those five promises is right thing to - doesn't change? delivery of those five promises is right thing to do, | five promises is right thing to do, we only started on that path fairly recently. we only started on that path fairly recentl . ., . ., . we only started on that path fairly recentl . ., _, . , , . recently. you could argue the public was well aware _ recently. you could argue the public was well aware of _ recently. you could argue the public was well aware of the _ recently. you could argue the public was well aware of the promises, - was well aware of the promises, you say them every couple of minutes in any interview, most ministers are the same but every one of those pledges refers to some sort of public policy development that that has got worse on your government's watch advertisement will be seeing we do not want the arsonist to turn up we do not want the arsonist to turn up with a fire bucket to put a little bit of the fire out. some of these things _ little bit of the fire out. some of these things result _ little bit of the fire out. some of these things result from - little bit of the fire out. some of these things result from global. these things result from global factors, let me finish... you blame labour on — factors, let me finish... you blame labour on the _ factors, let me finish... you blame labour on the financial— factors, let me finish... you blame labour on the financial crisis, - factors, let me finish... you blame labour on the financial crisis, the l labour on the financial crisis, the same thing. labour on the financial crisis, the same thing-— same thing. the cost of living crisis, food _ same thing. the cost of living crisis, food prices _ same thing. the cost of living crisis, food prices and - same thing. the cost of living

crisis, food prices and letting| crisis, food prices and letting quickly is happening across europe. it is highest and seems to be sticking in the uk.— it is highest and seems to be sticking in the uk. price inflation is similar across _ sticking in the uk. price inflation is similar across western - sticking in the uk. price inflation | is similar across western europe, europe—wide phenomena and we will take action to fix it. and energy bills, they are half the level they would otherwise be. without our intervention.— intervention. logo, waiting this, all not intervention. logo, waiting this, all got worse — intervention. logo, waiting this, all got worse on _ intervention. logo, waiting this, all got worse on your— intervention. logo, waiting this, all got worse on your watch. --| intervention. logo, waiting this, i all got worse on your watch. -- low urowth all got worse on your watch. -- low growth and — all got worse on your watch. -- low growth and waiting _ all got worse on your watch. -- low growth and waiting lists. _ all got worse on your watch. -- low growth and waiting lists. we - all got worse on your watch. -- low growth and waiting lists. we are i growth and waiting lists. we are taking action to protect people. the worst global pandemic for 100 years has an impact on the nhs and economy, the war in ukraine has unleashed inflation across the west and people understand that. we must show we are taking the right action to sort it out but party for the reasons you mention, words alone are not enough and we need to see actual delivery. on the psychology of these election results, what is interesting is although they are

clearly disappointing for the conservatives, they are not great for labour. —— on the pspehology. that is the pspehology. they are doing a similarjob to ed miliband in 2012, he was about 7—8 points ahead of us, they are in the same zone and being in ed miliband 2012 territory... i zone and being in ed miliband 2012 territo ~ ., . . ., territory... i know that you want to talk about labour _ territory... i know that you want to talk about labour but _ territory... i know that you want to talk about labour but i _ territory... i know that you want to talk about labour but i have - territory... i know that you want to talk about labour but i have the i talk about labour but i have the number in front of me, minus 1061 councillors. the worst case scenario was 1000 and you have managed to exceed that. was 1000 and you have managed to exceed that-— was 1000 and you have managed to exceed that. those were estimates, and it turns — exceed that. those were estimates, and it turns out _ exceed that. those were estimates, and it turns out they _ exceed that. those were estimates, and it turns out they were _ exceed that. those were estimates, and it turns out they were almost i and it turns out they were almost exactly right which is why they are the country's leading election experts. the country's leading election ex - erts. the country's leading election exerts. , , . ., , experts. the best you have got is that labour— experts. the best you have got is that labour as _ experts. the best you have got is that labour as short _ experts. the best you have got is that labour as short a _ experts. the best you have got is that labour as short a blair- experts. the best you have got is that labour as short a blair style | that labour as short a blair style landslide? , , ., landslide? there is everything to -la for. landslide? there is everything to play for- if _ landslide? there is everything to play for- if we — landslide? there is everything to play for. if we deliver _ landslide? there is everything to play for. if we deliver on - landslide? there is everything to play for. if we deliver on those i play for. if we deliver on those five places which i will spare repeating, we have a good chance of

winning the next election but even if we don't doctor got the alternative is some kind of labour and snp coalition which i think people will be concerned about and what we need to do is roll our sleeves up, deliver those pledges and everybody recognises, even his opponents, rishi sunak is a very seriously though, good at getting things done, good at detail, good at driving change through, and if we deliver come the autumn of 2024, we will get a fair hearing and we can win that election.— will get a fair hearing and we can win that election. alternatively the lesson is that _ win that election. alternatively the lesson is that you _ win that election. alternatively the lesson is that you are _ win that election. alternatively the lesson is that you are trying - win that election. alternatively the lesson is that you are trying to - lesson is that you are trying to mark rishi sunak is a different administration but is being held accountable for some of the errors and mistakes saw in the mini budget and mistakes saw in the mini budget and you will not be able to shift back. ., , and you will not be able to shift back. . , . . , ., back. there have been challenges to the cost of living _ back. there have been challenges to the cost of living across _ back. there have been challenges to the cost of living across the - back. there have been challenges to the cost of living across the west i the cost of living across the west and incumbent governments have these challenges, we need to show that we are rising today by helping with the cost of living as we have been, and delivering those five pledges, but delivery is critical, words are not enough.

delivery is critical, words are not enou:h. �* , , . ,, delivery is critical, words are not enou:h.�* , , . ,, enough. anneliese dodds, thank you for 'oinin: enough. anneliese dodds, thank you forjoining us. _ enough. anneliese dodds, thank you forjoining us. so _ enough. anneliese dodds, thank you forjoining us, so despite _ enough. anneliese dodds, thank you forjoining us, so despite the - enough. anneliese dodds, thank you forjoining us, so despite the three l forjoining us, so despite the three prime ministers in four chancellors, you are not precisely heading for a majority, why not? i you are not precisely heading for a majority. why not?— you are not precisely heading for a majority, why not? i am afraid that we are decisively _ majority, why not? i am afraid that we are decisively heading - majority, why not? i am afraid that we are decisively heading for- majority, why not? i am afraid that we are decisively heading for that i we are decisively heading for that majority, — we are decisively heading for that majority, that is precisely what these — majority, that is precisely what these results show, that actually we are winning — these results show, that actually we are winning in the north and midlands and in the south we are gaining _ midlands and in the south we are gaining support in those areas that are so— gaining support in those areas that are so critical to establishing majority— are so critical to establishing majority government. i have been campaigning up and down the country from sunderland to swindon, looking at the _ from sunderland to swindon, looking at the results we have seen today, winning _ at the results we have seen today, winning as — at the results we have seen today, winning as you mentioned at the beginning — winning as you mentioned at the beginning of this piece in medway but also _ beginning of this piece in medway but also in dobro, mansfield, middlesbrough, winning also in places— middlesbrough, winning also in places like east staffordshire. —— and that— places like east staffordshire. —— and that has been happening because first of— and that has been happening because first of all— and that has been happening because first of all people know that their last 13 _ first of all people know that their last 13 years have not worked for them _

last 13 years have not worked for them and — last 13 years have not worked for them and the conservatives have had 13 years _ them and the conservatives have had 13 years. chris suggests the conservatives almost when they came into power— conservatives almost when they came into power with the election of rishi _ into power with the election of rishi sunak. that is not the case. secondly, — rishi sunak. that is not the case. secondly, those results took place and people chose labour because they know that _ and people chose labour because they know that labour would be acting now to top _ know that labour would be acting now to top the _ know that labour would be acting now to top the cost of living, to cut the crime _ to top the cost of living, to cut the crime and to cut waiting lists. the conservatives have made the cost of living _ the conservatives have made the cost of living crisis worse. they have added _ of living crisis worse. they have added £500 on many mortgages, and that we _ added £500 on many mortgages, and that we have seen food inflation that we have seen food inflation that is— that we have seen food inflation that is worth in our country because of tory— that is worth in our country because of tory policies. en that is worth in our country because of tory policies-— of tory policies. en today's results. — of tory policies. en today's results, you _ of tory policies. en today's results, you are _ of tory policies. en today's results, you are up - of tory policies. en today's results, you are up 500, l of tory policies. en today's i results, you are up 500, but of tory policies. en today's - results, you are up 500, but it was a split opposition, the conservatives lost well over 1000 but the lib dems did well, up, 400, the greens doing spectacularly well. there is a split opposition and that is what is raising doubts amongst

expert pspehologists, saying that you are not assured, confident as you are not assured, confident as you are, of a majority which puts all sorts of other things into play. in we have seen in practice over a number of local elections taking place over the last few years that

smaller parties and independent candidates tend to do far better in local elections than they then go on to do at the general election. this election is no _ to do at the general election. this election is no different. most people would be very surprised indeed — people would be very surprised indeed if we saw smaller parties and incumbents winning up to 25% of the vote _ incumbents winning up to 25% of the vote that is— incumbents winning up to 25% of the vote. that is very unlikely in the general election. these results show that in those critical places while the establishment of a majority government, labour is moving forward. there are still more work to do— forward. there are still more work to do but it — forward. there are still more work to do but it shows that we are setting our back programme, those policies. _ setting our back programme, those policies, that would make a difference more u nless unless you being complacent, that actually you have tried to appeal, and we know —— but we know about the battle over the red wall, trying to appeal to that demographic you might have annoyed younger voters who are going to the lib dems and the greens. you are in oxford surrounded by a sea of yellow and green. actually i think the results point to the opposite. if you look at brighton _ to the opposite. if you look at brighton for example, it switched awaym _ brighton for example, it switched awa . , ., brighton for example, it switched awa... . , ., ., ., brighton for example, it switched l away. . ._ towards away... that is not oxford! towards labour. away... that is not oxford! towards labour- lots _ away... that is not oxford! towards labour. lots of _ away... that is not oxford! towards labour. lots of other _ away... that is not oxford! towards labour. lots of other places - away... that is not oxford! towards labour. lots of other places not. away... that is not oxford! towards labour. lots of other places not so | labour. lots of other places not so far away— labour. lots of other places not so far away from where people have chosen _ far away from where people have chosen labour but also those up and down _ chosen labour but also those up and down the _ chosen labour but also those up and down the country, and i find the same _ down the country, and i find the same reaction, ifi down the country, and i find the same reaction, if i have been talking — same reaction, if i have been talking with a young person as i was a couple _ talking with a young person as i was a couple of— talking with a young person as i was a couple of days ago in milton keynes. — a couple of days ago in milton keynes. i_ a couple of days ago in milton keynes, i was talking with older people — keynes, i was talking with older people in— keynes, i was talking with older people in bolsover, talking with both of— people in bolsover, talking with both of them about the cost—of—living crisis command in both— cost—of—living crisis command in both cases — cost—of—living crisis command in both cases i _ cost—of—living crisis command in both cases i have the same response. why are _ both cases i have the same response. why are the _ both cases i have the same response. why are the conservatives not acting on this? _ why are the conservatives not acting on this? why are they not freezing council— on this? why are they not freezing council tax — on this? why are they not freezing council tax as labour called for by

plugging — council tax as labour called for by plugging those holes in the windfall tax? they— plugging those holes in the windfall tax? they are incredulous that the conservatives not abolishing that non-dom — conservatives not abolishing that non—dom tax exemption, putting the money— non—dom tax exemption, putting the money into— non—dom tax exemption, putting the money into the nhs. people know elections — money into the nhs. people know elections are about choices and labour— elections are about choices and labour set at the choices we would be making — labour set at the choices we would be making at this election and people — be making at this election and people voted for the choices we were setting _ people voted for the choices we were setting out — people voted for the choices we were setting out. we people voted for the choices we were settin: out. ~ , , . setting out. we must believe that the are setting out. we must believe that they are bringing _ setting out. we must believe that they are bringing helen _ setting out. we must believe that they are bringing helen morgan i setting out. we must believe that. they are bringing helen morgan from they are bringing helen morgan from the liberal democrats. thanks for joining us. he always over perform in the local elections, it's not going to transfer to the general election, is it? taste going to transfer to the general election, is it?— election, is it? we have had a spectacular — election, is it? we have had a spectacular evening _ election, is it? we have had a spectacular evening and - election, is it? we have had a spectacular evening and day l election, is it? we have had a| spectacular evening and day to election, is it? we have had a - spectacular evening and day to day, we have _ spectacular evening and day to day, we have made — spectacular evening and day to day, we have made real— spectacular evening and day to day, we have made real inroads- spectacular evening and day to day, we have made real inroads in- spectacular evening and day to day, we have made real inroads in some| spectacular evening and day to day, i we have made real inroads in some of those _ we have made real inroads in some of those critical— we have made real inroads in some of those critical seats— we have made real inroads in some of those critical seats in— we have made real inroads in some of those critical seats in the _ we have made real inroads in some of those critical seats in the blue - those critical seats in the blue wall in— those critical seats in the blue wall in the _ those critical seats in the blue wall in the south—east - those critical seats in the blue wall in the south—east and - those critical seats in the blue - wall in the south—east and further up wall in the south—east and further up into— wall in the south—east and further up into the — wall in the south—east and further up into the midlands. _ wall in the south—east and further up into the midlands. we - wall in the south—east and further up into the midlands. we have - wall in the south—east and further i up into the midlands. we have been really— up into the midlands. we have been really pleased — up into the midlands. we have been really pleased with _ up into the midlands. we have been really pleased with the _ up into the midlands. we have been really pleased with the performance today and _ really pleased with the performance today and i— really pleased with the performance today and i think _ really pleased with the performance today and i think it _ really pleased with the performance today and i think it will— really pleased with the performance today and i think it will bode - really pleased with the performance today and i think it will bode well. today and i think it will bode well for us _ today and i think it will bode well for us when — today and i think it will bode well for us when it— today and i think it will bode well for us when it comes _ today and i think it will bode well for us when it comes to - today and i think it will bode well for us when it comes to the - today and i think it will bode well. for us when it comes to the general election _ for us when it comes to the general election but— for us when it comes to the general election. but we _ for us when it comes to the general election. but we know— for us when it comes to the general election. but we know we _ for us when it comes to the general election. but we know we have - for us when it comes to the general election. but we know we have to l election. but we know we have to fight _ election. but we know we have to fight for— election. but we know we have to fight for every _ election. but we know we have to fight for every vote, _ election. but we know we have to fight for every vote, we _ election. but we know we have to fight for every vote, we are - election. but we know we have to fight for every vote, we are not i fight for every vote, we are not complacent _ fight for every vote, we are not complacent and _ fight for every vote, we are not complacent and we _ fight for every vote, we are not complacent and we will - fight for every vote, we are not complacent and we will keep i fight for every vote, we are not - complacent and we will keep working hard in _ complacent and we will keep working hard in those — complacent and we will keep working hard in those seats _ complacent and we will keep working hard in those seats we _ complacent and we will keep working hard in those seats we can _ complacent and we will keep working hard in those seats we can win - complacent and we will keep working hard in those seats we can win until. hard in those seats we can win until the general— hard in those seats we can win until the general election— hard in those seats we can win until the general election happens. -

the general election happens. interesting _ the general election happens. interesting the _ the general election happens. interesting the greens - the general election happens. interesting the greens have i the general election happens. i interesting the greens have done the general election happens. - interesting the greens have done so well, which you would acknowledge, in some places you have... i in a word about them taking some of your vote? , , ., . , �* vote? the greens vote hasn't translated — vote? the greens vote hasn't translated into _ vote? the greens vote hasn't translated into westminster. vote? the greens vote hasn't - translated into westminster votes going _ translated into westminster votes going forward _ translated into westminster votes going forward -- _ translated into westminster votes going forward. —— westminster. translated into westminster votes - going forward. —— westminster seats. we had _ going forward. —— westminster seats. we had 700 _ going forward. —— westminster seats. we had 700 gains— going forward. —— westminster seats. we had 700 gains in— going forward. —— westminster seats. we had 700 gains in the _ going forward. —— westminster seats. we had 700 gains in the same - going forward. —— westminster seats. we had 700 gains in the same seat. we had 700 gains in the same seat last around — we had 700 gains in the same seat last around 2019, _ we had 700 gains in the same seat last around 2019, we _ we had 700 gains in the same seat last around 2019, we made - we had 700 gains in the same seat| last around 2019, we made another 400 today, — last around 2019, we made another 400 today, i— last around 2019, we made another 400 today, ithink_ last around 2019, we made another 400 today, ithink it's— last around 2019, we made another 400 today, i think it's been- last around 2019, we made another 400 today, i think it's been a - 400 today, i think it's been a really— 400 today, i think it's been a really good _ 400 today, i think it's been a really good showing - 400 today, i think it's been a really good showing for- 400 today, i think it's been a really good showing for us i 400 today, i think it's been a - really good showing for us across the board — really good showing for us across the board we _ really good showing for us across the board. we are _ really good showing for us across the board. we are feeling - really good showing for us across i the board. we are feeling confident following _ the board. we are feeling confident following today's _ the board. we are feeling confident following today's result _ the board. we are feeling confident following today's result and - the board. we are feeling confident following today's result and i- the board. we are feeling confident following today's result and i thinkl following today's result and i think we can _ following today's result and i think we can translate _ following today's result and i think we can translate those _ following today's result and i think we can translate those results - following today's result and i think i we can translate those results today into westminster _ we can translate those results today into westminster seats _ we can translate those results today into westminster seats going - into westminster seats going forward, _ into westminster seats going forward, because _ into westminster seats going forward, because where - into westminster seats going forward, because where we l into westminster seats going i forward, because where we do into westminster seats going - forward, because where we do well we tend to _ forward, because where we do well we tend to stay _ forward, because where we do well we tend to stay in — forward, because where we do well we tend to stay in control, _ forward, because where we do well we tend to stay in control, we _ forward, because where we do well we tend to stay in control, we tend - forward, because where we do well we tend to stay in control, we tend to - tend to stay in control, we tend to prove _ tend to stay in control, we tend to prove to _ tend to stay in control, we tend to prove to people _ tend to stay in control, we tend to prove to people what _ tend to stay in control, we tend to prove to people what could - prove to people what could hard—working _ prove to people what could i hard—working representatives prove to people what could - hard—working representatives we prove to people what could _ hard—working representatives we are. pleased _ hard—working representatives we are. pleased we _ hard—working representatives we are. pleased we have _ hard—working representatives we are. pleased we have done _ hard—working representatives we are. pleased we have done well— hard—working representatives we are. pleased we have done well today - hard—working representatives we are. pleased we have done well today and | pleased we have done well today and hope we _ pleased we have done well today and hope we can — pleased we have done well today and hope we can improve _ pleased we have done well today and hope we can improve going _ pleased we have done well today and hope we can improve going forward. i hope we can improve going forward. everyone _ hope we can improve going forward. everyone upbeat— hope we can improve going forward. everyone upbeat after— hope we can improve going forward. everyone upbeat after a _ hope we can improve going forward. everyone upbeat after a set - hope we can improve going forward. everyone upbeat after a set of- everyone upbeat after a set of results from the local elections. nearly finished now counting all of those results come as i said. so, some big inroads into tory territory,

going beyond the recent obsession with the so—called red wall on northern brexit—voting traditional labour seats, but what path does this put the country on? is this a normal turn of the political cycle where an acute cost of living crisis, rising interest rates and economic uncertainty have been blamed on the government? or is this something more fundamental about changes in the satellite towns around big cities? has boris johnson's unwieldy 2019 brexit coalition fallen apart, perhaps completely? here's david at the newsnight wall. the first question we're supposed to ask on occasions like this is, "what does all this mean for the next general election?" so let's look at the last 11 general elections — the first one there, margaret thatcher's victory in 1979 right up to borisjohnson's 40 years later in 2019. and from them, let's pick out the three elections where the government changed hands. now what we want to know

is where were the opposition party — the one that went on to win the general election — where were they in the local elections one year before each of those general election victories? in 1978 the conservatives were 12 points up on labour. in 1996 labour were 16 points up on the conservatives. and in 2009 david cameron's conservatives were 15 points ahead of labour. so we can see of those three, the minimum margin is 12 points a year before a general election. a bit of a health warning — we of course don't know exactly when the next general election will be, only that it has to be sometime before january 2025. but where is sir keir starmer right now, according to the local elections' projected national share of the vote? he's nine points up. but there's a big caveat that i'm going to come back to in a moment. let's look at the other eight

general elections for the incumbent won. how badly did things go in the local elections the year before, but the party in power still managed to hang on? you can see there is quite a range there, from the incumbent party neck and neck in 2018 to behind by 12 points in 2004, when tony blair still went on to win the next general election. so, sir keir starmer�*s nine point lead is still, on historical precedents, firmly in the "could go either way" category. the psephologist professor rob ford has offered a seat projection of what this result could mean in terms of westminster. he stresses that this is a bit of fun and not to be taken too seriously. but it shows a hung parliament. now, that really important caveat i mentioned earlier. we are in a very different political landscape now to back when tony blair was knocking out

double digit margins of victory in local elections. since 2014, the rise of smaller parties — ukip, independents and greens in england, and the extraordinary rise of the snp in scotland. in the 2015 election they went from six seats to 56 seats in scotland, 40 of them at the expense of labour. so, if sir keir starmer can get some of those seats back in scotland, where the snp are having some well publicised problems, and persuade enough labour voters who defected to ukip and then the conservatives to return to labour — and there is some evidence from the council elections that this is happening — in those circumstances, a nine point margin now might actually be enough for a labour majority at the next election. well, here to chew over what these results can tell us, we have former labour adviser, now times radio presenter and columnist ayesha hazarika, and the mail on sunday's dan hodges.

swindon, dover, thanet, windsor, these are massive totemic names. it is part of a political seesaw are something more? i is part of a political seesaw are something more?— is part of a political seesaw are something more? i think this is a big moment _ something more? i think this is a big moment in — something more? i think this is a big moment in terms _ something more? i think this is a big moment in terms of - something more? i think this is a big moment in terms of where i big moment in terms of where our politics is certainly the journey for keir starmer, and i think when you look at the fact he has just been leader of the party which three years ago was absolutely in the toilet, it was a complete shambles, now he's taking the party to be organised and pretty competitive and i think appointed david may to the end is really important, scotland is to be critical of the next general election. no elections in scotland or wales and some of those other big urban areas by birmingham and london where labour have quipped strong results but for me, scotland is going to be really important because i think for the first time in scotland we have seen a decoupling from people who want independence and voting for the snp because of

nicola sturgeon's resignation and the shambles of the snp. so my take is, yes, it's a good night for labour but labour cannot be complacent and i think what they have to do is they can'tjust rely on either him not being jeremy corbyn and not being rishi sunak. starmer has to put flesh on the bone in terms of what is the alternative vision for britain. because labour wants a clear and convincing win with a mandate, notjust scraped by default. with a mandate, not 'ust scraped by default. , ,, . , , . default. rishi sunak's sales pitch, is it not working _ default. rishi sunak's sales pitch, is it not working quickly _ default. rishi sunak's sales pitch, is it not working quickly to - default. rishi sunak's sales pitch, is it not working quickly to put - default. rishi sunak's sales pitch, is it not working quickly to put it |

is it not working quickly to put it mildly, absolutely. these are absolutely terrible results for the tory party. absolutely terrible results for the to -a . . ~' , , absolutely terrible results for the to -a . . , , tory party. frankly, this is the beginning of— tory party. frankly, this is the beginning of the end - tory party. frankly, this is the beginning of the end of the i beginning of the end of the rishi sunak— beginning of the end of the rishi sunak government. if you look at these _ sunak government. if you look at these figures, i can't see any way these figures, ican't see any way you get— these figures, i can't see any way you get from here, with the timing he has, to— you get from here, with the timing he has, to an overall tory majority, which he _ he has, to an overall tory majority, which he would have to do to remain in downing _ which he would have to do to remain in downing street. a which he would have to do to remain in downing street.— in downing street. a lot of what ou're in downing street. a lot of what you're writing a _ in downing street. a lot of what you're writing a saying labour. you're writing a saying labour haven't done well enough. but this is the second half _ haven't done well enough. but this is the second half of the _ is the second half of the equation. you equally have to be honest, we have seen — you equally have to be honest, we have seen from the analysis from yourself and your colleagues, none of the _ yourself and your colleagues, none of the analysis of the moment has keir starmer securing an overall majority — keir starmer securing an overall ma'ori . �* ., , ., majority. but he would be getting to number ten based _ majority. but he would be getting to number ten based on _ majority. but he would be getting to number ten based on these - majority. but he would be getting to. number ten based on these numbers. is a most impossible to see him not going _ is a most impossible to see him not going into _ is a most impossible to see him not going into numberten is a most impossible to see him not going into number ten but the implication is notjust for him for the -- _ implication is notjust for him for the -- for— implication is notjust for him for the —— for the country are what happens — the —— for the country are what happens if— the —— for the country are what happens if keir starmer is in downing _ happens if keir starmer is in downing street, dependent on the votes _ downing street, dependent on the votes of— downing street, dependent on the votes of the snp, maybe the greens, and a _ votes of the snp, maybe the greens, and a lib— votes of the snp, maybe the greens, and a lib dem party that is still terrified — and a lib dem party that is still terrified and trying to cope with the last— terrified and trying to cope with the last time they were associated with government, crucially, 20 or 30

mps who— with government, crucially, 20 or 30 mps who frankly will be out for revenge — mps who frankly will be out for revenge because of what he did to jeremy— revenge because of what he did to jeremy corbyn. revenge because of what he did to jeremy corbyn-— revenge because of what he did to jeremy corbyn. you're thinking about the consequences _ jeremy corbyn. you're thinking about the consequences of _ jeremy corbyn. you're thinking about the consequences of this _ jeremy corbyn. you're thinking about the consequences of this but - jeremy corbyn. you're thinking about the consequences of this but you - the consequences of this but you don't necessarily think it affects where you think the election goes. so the conservatives leveraged the city of the coalition, whether at work again? i city of the coalition, whether at work again?— work again? i don't think it is auoin to work again? i don't think it is going to work _ work again? i don't think it is going to work to _ work again? i don't think it is going to work to the - work again? i don't think it is going to work to the same i work again? i don't think it is - going to work to the same effect. the last time it was leveraged, and i still have scars on my back from having worked with ed miliband, alex salmond was leading the snp, formidable character, quite scary to many people down south. humza yousaf doesn't even scare his own side, he is not even that well—known. i think just the sort of psychology of the country has changed in terms of that threat. the idea that coalition of chaos, rememberthe famous threat. the idea that coalition of chaos, remember the famous david cameron tweets, that is quite laughable now.— cameron tweets, that is quite laughable now. you don't think it will affect the _ laughable now. you don't think it will affect the election? - laughable now. you don't think it will affect the election? but - laughable now. you don't think it will affect the election? but at i will affect the election? but at least the snp _ will affect the election? but at least the snp back _ will affect the election? but at least the snp back then - will affect the election? but at least the snp back then were l

least the snp back then were relatively coherent. as we can see there _ relatively coherent. as we can see there are — relatively coherent. as we can see there are currently a shambles. so who is— there are currently a shambles. so who is keir— there are currently a shambles. so who is keir starmer's majority going to be _ who is keir starmer's majority going to be based — who is keir starmer's majority going to be based on? who are his partner is going _ to be based on? who are his partner is going to _ to be based on? who are his partner is going to be in this coalition crews— is going to be in this coalition crews will— is going to be in this coalition crews will be the snp? is is going to be in this coalition crews will be the snp?- is going to be in this coalition crews will be the snp? is not going to be the snp- _ crews will be the snp? is not going to be the snp. is— crews will be the snp? is not going to be the snp. is it _ crews will be the snp? is not going to be the snp. is it going _ crews will be the snp? is not going to be the snp. is it going to - crews will be the snp? is not going to be the snp. is it going to be - crews will be the snp? is not going to be the snp. is it going to be the | to be the snp. is it going to be the lib dems? — to be the snp. is it going to be the lib dems? no _ to be the snp. is it going to be the lib dems? no because _ to be the snp. is it going to be the lib dems? no because as - to be the snp. is it going to be the lib dems? no because as we - to be the snp. is it going to be the lib dems? no because as we knowj to be the snp. is it going to be the - lib dems? no because as we know the lib dems? no because as we know the lib dems _ lib dems? no because as we know the lib dems are... lib dems? no because as we know the lib dems are- - -— lib dems are... they don't want it. the are lib dems are... they don't want it. they are still _ lib dems are... they don't want it. they are still suffering _ lib dems are... they don't want it. they are still suffering from - lib dems are... they don't want it. they are still suffering from ptsd i they are still suffering from ptsd from _ they are still suffering from ptsd from last — they are still suffering from ptsd from last time. so where is it coming — from last time. so where is it coming from?— from last time. so where is it comin: from? �* ., ., ., . coming from? before we go down a sort of cul-de-sac _ coming from? before we go down a sort of cul-de-sac of _ coming from? before we go down a sort of cul-de-sac of minority - sort of cul—de—sac of minority government analysis, this idea of the conservative coalition won in 2019 so handsomely, whether they can just keep it going, keep both plates spinning, north and south. i just keep it going, keep both plates spinning, north and south.- spinning, north and south. i think we have seen _ spinning, north and south. i think we have seen that _ spinning, north and south. i think we have seen that they _ spinning, north and south. i think| we have seen that they absolutely cannot do that. why track or is it that rishi sunak can't do that boris

johnson couldn't? borisjohnson clearly couldn't because he couldn't even hold a coalition of his own mps together. what you have to do if you're honest, the truth is, it's difficult to extrapolate from this set of results exactly what's going to happen at the next election for all the reasons we have put forward. dan might be right, he might not, labour could get a majority after all this but what we can say for certain, looking at the results today across england, left right and centre, the length and breadth of the country, rishi sunak, this was his first test at the ballot box and he was absolutely rejected. and that is really important factor in of this. he can't limit on boris and liz truss, he is the face of a failing party. liz truss, he is the face of a failing party-— liz truss, he is the face of a failin: -a . ., ., , failing party. could the economy turnin: , failing party. could the economy turning, could _ failing party. could the economy turning, could anything - failing party. could the economy turning, could anything save - failing party. could the economy i turning, could anything save him? i think the economy to turn it but i don't _ think the economy to turn it but i don't think— think the economy to turn it but i don't think it will save him, think it will— don't think it will save him, think it will save — don't think it will save him, think it will save him, thinkable just sgueeze — it will save him, thinkable just squeeze again, squeeze the size of keir starmer's majority. but squeeze again, squeeze the size of keir starmer's majority.— squeeze again, squeeze the size of keir starmer's majority. keir starmer's ma'ority. but what we are both keir starmer's majority. but what we are both conceding _ keir starmer's majority. but what we are both conceding and _ keir starmer's majority. but what we are both conceding and we _ keir starmer's majority. but what we are both conceding and we might - keir starmer's majority. but what we i are both conceding and we might have different views about where things

get too, but what you're saying and what i'm saying we're looking at a fairly high probability of keir being prime minister. {lilia fairly high probability of keir being prime minister. ok, that's 'ust about being prime minister. ok, that's just about all — being prime minister. ok, that's just about all for _ being prime minister. ok, that's just about all for tonight. - let's have a quick look at the papers. and they are mainly not leading on what happened in the ballot boxes of england, they are leading on the coronation of king charles iii of course, and queen camilla. kirsty is presenting on tuesday, enjoy your extra long weekend — however you choose to spend it. we leave you with the most recent scenes from inside westminster abbey — where the eyes of many will be focused for that ceremony in 12 hours' time. goodnight.