live from london, this is bbc news. a new climate update is issued — warning that the world is likely to break the 1.5 degree temperature threshold, in at least one of the next five years. severe flooding kills at least eight people in northern italy and force the emilia romagna grand prix to be cancelled. $3 billion is required to help protect those affected by the crisis in sudan. hello, i'm sarah campbell. we start with new figures which suggest global temperatues are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years. the world meteorological

organisation says: there is a 66% chance that we will break — the 1.5 degree temperature threshold for at least a year. there is a 98% chance of the warmest year on record before 2027. arctic heating will likely be three times higher than the global average. and the reason for these worrying predictions? temperatures being driven up by ongoing carbon emissions plus the likely onset of a naturally occurring el nino event — which can trigger more extreme weather and climate events, including severe rainfall and drought, depending on the region. laurie goering is the climate change editor at the thomson—reuters foundation. i asked her to explain the significance of these figures. i think the real message from this is that these climate change impacts are coming much faster than scientists had predicted. scientists are inherently conservative and what we are seeing is that a lot of different things from hate to

sea—level rise are probably going to happen a lot faster than we had imagined. we had predicted initially that 1.5 would be breached sometime in the 2013s and we are now saying that this could happen really very soon. �* f , that this could happen really very soon. �* f, . that this could happen really very soon-— that's - that this could happen really very - soon.— that's because soon. and why's that? that's because we are continuing _ soon. and why's that? that's because we are continuing to _ soon. and why's that? that's because we are continuing to use _ soon. and why's that? that's because we are continuing to use coal, - soon. and why's that? that's because we are continuing to use coal, oil - we are continuing to use coal, oil and gas and release those emissions are driving climate change. it's a problem globally because we now have renewable sources of energy that are actually cheaper in most of the world that we could be switching to but there are a lot of barriers in the way of that happening, including political ones and the tradition of things like fossil fuel subsidies. in terms of the real—time results of that, what is it actually mean? this is auoin to that, what is it actually mean? this is going to have _ that, what is it actually mean? ti 3 is going to have big implications for things that we all care about a lot from food prices to migration. one of the problems is that they have predicted if we go past 1.5

celsius for any period of time we may see global tipping points. that's things like the total melding of the greenland ice sheet, meaning seven metres of sea level rise around the world. another tipping point is the melting of the west antarctic ice sheet which over time could raise sea levels of a three 3.3 metres, i believe. so we are talking about serious problems globally because we have a lot of cities on coastlines that would be affected by sea—level rise. and here in the uk and ireland we have a lot of coastline. in the uk and ireland we have a lot of coastline-— in the uk and ireland we have a lot of coastline. you were saying about timescales. — of coastline. you were saying about timescales, this _ of coastline. you were saying about timescales, this temperature - of coastline. you were saying about timescales, this temperature has . timescales, this temperature has happened more quickly than we might have predicted, so presumably these potentially catastrophic results is the time scale quickening on that as well. , , . ., , ., well. yes, the predictions for thin . s well. yes, the predictions for things like — well. yes, the predictions for things like sea-level- well. yes, the predictions for things like sea-level rise - well. yes, the predictions for things like sea-level rise are| well. yes, the predictions for - things like sea-level rise are still things like sea—level rise are still very are conservative but what we are seeing happening in the real world as faster than that so we may

need to advance a lot, not only our efforts to quickly cut emissions so this doesn't get any worse, but also to adapt to some of what is coming and make plans for a quite a changed world that may be coming up. these are serious problems like losses of more and more clocks around the world if we see temperature extremes because in many places they won't do as well. if we see extreme weather, which is already causing huge problems everywhere, that's likely to get worse, and he waves in themselves are a huge risk that is under recognised and a real threat to human health. you under recognised and a real threat to human health.— under recognised and a real threat to human health. you heard laurie goerin: to human health. you heard laurie goering talk _ to human health. you heard laurie goering talk about _ to human health. you heard laurie goering talk about extreme - to human health. you heard laurie. goering talk about extreme weather events. it would appear that is what is happening in italy at the moment. the emilia—romagna formula 1 grand prix has been cold off because of severe weather and widespread flooding. this picture of the track has just come flooding. this picture of the track hasjust come in. organisers flooding. this picture of the track has just come in. organisers say the extreme conditions mean it'sjust

not possible to ensure the safety of fans, staff at the track, or the teens. looking at that picture you can see why. the organisers issued this statement, saying they don't want to put any more pressure on the emergency services. so in all so far eight people are known to have been killed by a catastrophic flooding. this is in the emilia—romagna region of italy. you can see it there. one of italy. you can see it there. one of the european nations that has suffered the most from extreme weather in recent years. let's look at some of the pictures they have been coming out. these are the streets of forli. officials have been responding to hundreds of incidents across the region, including stranded motorists and people trapped in their homes as rivers burst their banks and flooded houses. this is the town of faenza where residents have had to be rescued from their roofs by helicopter, as you can see. these pictures show the town of bologna.

cars and trucks have been stranded in the overflowing streets. let's look at just a in the overflowing streets. let's look atjust a no, this is a town the local authorities say that 1a rivers have broken their banks and in some areas it wasn't possible to gauge the rainfall accurately because the amount that fell exceeded what their instruments could record —— gers aina. let's hearfrom could record —— gers aina. let's hear from the mayor of that town. translation: we hear from the mayor of that town. translation:— hear from the mayor of that town. translation: we can't rule out the ossibili translation: we can't rule out the possibility of — translation: we can't rule out the possibility of further _ translation: we can't rule out the possibility of further breaches - translation: we can't rule out the possibility of further breaches of - possibility of further breaches of the banks as happened yesterday at apm. we reiterate our cool to citizens to stay away from rivers, not into basements or underground rooms for any reason, and for those who live near the river to stay on the first floor and not go down to the first floor and not go down to the ground floor. our correspondent sophia bettiza sent this report from northern italy. heavy rainfall and flooding have hit the region of emilia—romagna in in northern italy. local authorities are warning people

to be extremely careful and are saying that this emergency is not over. and not to go near any rivers because this emergency is far from over. the mayor of the city of ravenna said that last night was the worst night in the history of the region of emilia—romagna, and that his town is unrecognisable because of the damage. several people are currently missing, and thousands have been evacuated. they are taking shelter in gyms and in schools. several of schools are closed, lots of trains are not running, and some of the rescuers were quite dramatic. several rivers broke their banks, forcing people, for example, in the town of cesena to climb on top of their rooftops and be rescued by firefighters in helicopters or in rubber dinghies. the mayor in chassaing that said the situation is catastrophic and there

are thousands of people living in situations that only have a ground for a need to be rescued as soon as possible. the whole city has no electricity. weather—related disasters are getting more and more common in italy. this heavy rainfall comes after weeks of drought, which made the land drier, that makes it in turn much harderfor the land to absorb water, so when floods like this happen the consequences our very, very serious. local authorities are saying that for days and probably until the end of may. sofia bettiza are giving us an update from northern italy. let's look at some of the pictures, as pictures are coming in from all over italy this afternoon. this is from the town of cesena where we had the mayor talking about the situation from. i think we can see somebody

being rescued from a building. this picture hasjust being rescued from a building. this picture has just frozen. being rescued from a building. this picture hasjust frozen. obviously it is not the best conditions for cameras to work in at the moment. so we will bring you those pictures as and when we get them. clearly lots of rescues going on across italy at the moment so we will keep you updated if there is further development. forthe updated if there is further development. for the moment, updated if there is further development. forthe moment, let's move onto another major story we covering this afternoon, the gathering of european leaders which has been taking place in iceland. and ukraine has been one of the major discussion topics. german chancellor olaf scholz, french president emmanuel macron and the british prime minister are among the leaders emphasising their support. and rishi sunak and the dutch prime minister, mark rutte, have promised to build an "international coalition" to provide fighterjet support for ukraine. meanwhile in berlin, the british and german defence ministers have been meeting — here's the uk's ben wallace.

we need to signal to russia that we as nations we have no principal objection to supplying ukraine capabilities that it needs depending on what is going on on the battlefield. that is fundamentally what we hear about. we started this whole process with gifting light anti—tank weapons and today we are standing here debating about whether we help as you 2115 be able to be sustained versus f16s. i've been speaking to james rands from the defence intelligence agency janes — and i asked him about the significance of western countries giving ukraine more air defence capabilities. the devil of this will always be in the detail. it is in principle possible to set up your international coalition to deliver jets but there are a number of issues. ukrainian pilots are used to flying old soviet model aircraft and they would need to convert to the f16 which is the american jet air

superiority fighter which is what they have mentioned. that comes up against problems, nato countries have problems and of training their own pilots. they also need a lot of those airmen and airframes actually in the airflying those airmen and airframes actually in the air flying deterrent missions in the air flying deterrent missions in defence of their own territory. when we get more detail we will have a sense of where that actually goes. rishi sunak has talked about providing pilot training. my reading from that was really teaching novice flyers how to fly in the first place rather than converting to jets. it is quite a change of tack, isn't it? because we know that president zelensky has been asking for air support for a long time, particularly f—16jets. support for a long time, particularly f—16 jets. what is your sense of why there suddenly seems to be momentum for this? and we can talk about the us reaction as part of this as well. i talk about the us reaction as part of this as well.— of this as well. i think what we have seen _ of this as well. i think what we have seen is _ of this as well. i think what we have seen is a _ of this as well. i think what we have seen is a gradual - of this as well. i think what we l have seen is a gradual evolution of this as well. i think what we -

have seen is a gradual evolution of the position, western countries have been very keen to avoid what might been very keen to avoid what might be escalator measures. but within the last week we have seen that the uk has provided storm shadow, a missile which gives 250 kilometres plus reach, and that means that we have broken a threshold just as the us did when they delivered himars which gave 70 kilometre range, pushing back some of the russian headquarters and some of the logistics basis. whether this is really the watershed moment, i don't know yet to be perfectly honest. but obviously the concern has been come up obviously the concern has been come up until this point, about a fear of escalation, particularly this concept of bringing in f—16s, so is that something that is still a concern at the moment? it is a

olitical concern at the moment? it is a political decision. _ concern at the moment? it is a political decision. but - concern at the moment? it is a political decision. but the - concern at the moment? it is a political decision. but the big l political decision. but the big driver of the f—16s potentially at the moment is that the russians have deployed the kinzhal missile which they cool a hypersonic missile. whether it can be accurately described as that is debatable. but thatis described as that is debatable. but that is launched from a jet. the russian air force until relatively recently didn't have a huge part to play in this war. ukrainian air defences turned out to be better—than—expected, there has really been more or less a stalemate in the air. with those jets firing missiles which are pretty effective and are hard to shoot down, there is and are hard to shoot down, there is a drive to put more air superiority fighters in the air. that would seem to be a counter measure rather than an escalator remeasure. but of course that is a political viewpoint

that each side will hold and each of the individual countries within nato will hold. i the individual countries within nato will hold. , , ,, ., will hold. i suppose the russian reaction to _ will hold. i suppose the russian reaction to this _ will hold. i suppose the russian reaction to this change - will hold. i suppose the russian reaction to this change of - will hold. i suppose the russian reaction to this change of tack l will hold. i suppose the russian - reaction to this change of tack from european leaders, have we had any reaction from russia? how are they viewing this? indie reaction from russia? how are they viewing this?— viewing this? we haven't seen any et, viewing this? we haven't seen any yet. however _ viewing this? we haven't seen any yet, however with _ viewing this? we haven't seen any yet, however with each _ viewing this? we haven't seen any yet, however with each new - viewing this? we haven't seen any l yet, however with each new delivery the response has been pretty similar. so there has been the suggestion that a red line has been crossed. this is an escalator remeasure and some form of revenge will be taken in military means. but that has been the case since himars was delivered and we haven't really seen anything to justify those claims. seen anything to 'ustify those claims. ., ~ seen anything to 'ustify those claims. . ~' , ., seen anything to 'ustify those claims. . ~ ., seen anything to 'ustify those claims. . ., claims. thank you for staying with us on bbc news. _ ijust want i just want to bring you

ijust want to bring you a little bit of breaking news. we have very little detail at the moment but there has been a tweet. the ex prime minister of pakistan imran khan says police have surrounded his house and his arrest is imminent. we have no more details other than that at the moment but you will remember he was arrested and released last week. but at the time they were saying that he would be rearrested, or that was certainly the concern of the pakistani ex prime minister. and it appears that that situation has developed. so once again a tweet, pakistan ex prime minister imran khan says police have surrounded his house and his arrest is imminent. around the world and across the uk. this is bbc news. the train now approaching doesn't stop here yet but it soon will. the first new station to be built within

reading's boundaries in over a century opens to the public a week on saturday 27th of may. workers are putting the finishing touches to the new stop on the line between reading and basingstoke. it's been built with an eye towards future growth. what we have done here is build a station which is fit for the future, so two and three carriage trains are running now but in the future of those could well expand to up to six carriages and beyond with automatic closing doors. carriages and beyond with automatic closing doors-— closing doors. green park started out as a site _ closing doors. green park started out as a site for _ closing doors. green park started out as a site for business - closing doors. green park started out as a site for business but - closing doors. green park started out as a site for business but it's| out as a site for business but it's now a sizeable spill—over from reading itself. these are the latest of more than 1179 homes being built here. it's all part of the explanation why this will be one of a handful of new stations opened this year. you're live with bbc news. over to sudan where ongoing fighting between the sudanese armed forces and the rapid support forces has caused widespread displacement

of over 700,000 people. now, the united nations humanitarian response plan is seeking $2.56 billion to help people affected by the crisis. the refugee agency is also seeking more funding to assist those who were forced to flee the country. sara creta, a filmmaker covering migration issues who is on the ethiopia—sudan border — has been telling the bbc about her experience. there are a few days already i am unable to enter sudan, it seems that there is a ban on foreigners, foreignjournalists, and also humanitarian workers to enter the country. so this is really concerning, especially because there are no western journalists at the moment in khartoum, in sudan, and it is disappearing. what is happening in sudan, here at the border between ethiopia and sudan.

we see a constant stream of refugees arriving from khartoum. there are many women, many children, especially from eritrea but also from syria, and sudanese themselves trying to leave safely. according to the un, more than 20,000 people arrived at this border post in the past few days and the situation on the ground is really difficult for these hundreds of people arriving every day. they can't find drinking water, the town here is extremely hot. kids don't find support, and especially for eritreans and other refugees who are in khartoum and were working there, with the united nations, those eritreans now can't travel further. they have no travel documents to continue theirjourney and their lives are on hold.

they are unable to register within the humanitarian aid coordination hub that is here on the ground because the number is increasing olga sarrado, spokesperson for the un's refugee agency, brought the bbc up to date with the situation. launched an appeal today for over $3 billion to support those that are displaced within the country and also outside. we have to take into consideration that in just two months there have been over 1 million people displaced. this includes about 800,000 people who have been displaced inside the country but also over 220,000 people that have been forced to leave sudan and cross to neighbouring countries searching safety. these countries that are neighbouring sudan had already huge humanitarian needs.

these people are arriving into areas that are extremely remote where there is very limited services, so the assistance for food, shelter and other items to be provided to them in those areas is crucial. ijust i just wanted to ijust wanted to bring you up—to—date on that breaking story i mentioned a few moments ago that the former pakistan prime minister imran khan said that police had surrounded his house and that his arrest was imminent. it does appear now that the former prime minister is doing a live address now on youtube. i'm not sure that we can hear exactly what he is saying butjust to give you a bit of background to this, imran khan was arrested last week by the anti—corruption agency in a

corruption case and this was before a court granted him bail. you may remember his arrest have sparked violent protests across the nation, killing at least eight people. he was arrested, and then he was released on friday, but back then he had expressed concern that he could be rearrested fairly quickly. and as we have been saying this afternoon, he has tweeted that police have surrounded his house in lahore and that his arrest is imminent. obviously if we get any more on that story, if we hear any more on what imran khan is saying we will let you know, clearly a developing story in pakistan. let's move on for the moment, but we will keep you updated on that situation. the us state of north carolina has passed legislation banning most abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy. it comes after the state's republican—controlled general

assembly overrode a veto from the democratic governor. the law bans abortions after the first trimester, except in cases of rape, incest, life—limiting foetal anomalies and medical emergencies. abortion is now banned or severely restricted in much of the south, with georgia's laws only allowing a window for the first six weeks of pregnancy. the carolinas, florida and virginia are the main destinations to seek a legal abortion. however, in florida, the procedure is banned after 15 weeks of pregnancy with a court ruling pending to tighten this to six weeks. cbs news correspondent caitlin huey—burns is in raleigh in north carolina — and i asked her to explain just what has happened — and what the implications are. since the overturning of roe v wade we have seen this now go to the states and now several states, now with north carolina 19 states, have

either banned or restricted the procedure. so what you have in the united states now when it comes to abortion access is a real patchwork of laws. your rights to the procedure now depend on where you live in the country. the question now is our other states going to move to enact further restrictions. ——the question now is are other states going to move to enact further restrictions. in the south, that's really important what's happened here in north carolina, because in the south and now there are onlyjust two states that will have a relatively unrestricted access to abortions. that's virginia and south carolina. but in south carolina they are working to pass a six—week ban, and in virginia, democrats in the state assembly were able to deny a 15—week ban but the governor there does support that restriction. so a lot remains to be seen but the big headlines this morning here in the us are that the south now has greater restrictions. and really interesting reaction, quite an

interesting political situation in north carolina, because this was after a veto, a veto was overridden that had been put in by the democratic governor roy cooper, and he has made a statement. he said, we will never stop fighting to protect women's health, never, never, never stop fighting to protect the health of women here. so there are strong views on both sides. where is the future? is there any way back for north carolina? can this be overridden again? it will be very difficult to make changes to the law now. the governor told others in an interview earlier this the governor told us in an interview earlier this week that he will use whatever executive authority he has on the issue of abortion, but really this has been up to the state legislature. and you mentioned that the legislature has a super majority, and that is a new thing here in north carolina. a democrat earlier this year, just last month, actually, switched her registration to republican and that's what gave the republican party

the numbers to be able to override this veto from the governor. so there is very little that he can do unilaterally but he has told us that he will try to do everything he can. this bill does include some exceptions, as you mentioned, at the top, and republicans who have pushed for this bill argue it is not as restrictive as some of the other neighbouring states in the south, but advocates here we have been speaking to over the last several months had been worried about something like this happening and the uncertainty that it means for those seeking the procedure here. just a reminder of that story that has been developing in pakistan as we have been on there. the former prime minister imran khan tweeted that police had surrounded his house and his arrest was imminent. as you can see there he is doing a live broadcast on youtube at the moment.

we will keep you up—to—date on that developing situation. stay with us on bbc news. it is another relatively settled day and the trend through the rest of the week will be temperatures on the rise, still lovely and dry but not a case of wall—to—wall sunshine, there will still be some cloud and showers around. at the moment still settled for most of us because of this ridge of high pressure but there is this set of fronts just around the top of the high meaning some outbreaks of rain for scotland and for much of the uk today there is a case of dry conditions, sharp as possiblejust about anywhere but generally speaking these are very much few and far between, and we will see some areas of cloud mixed in with some bright or sunny spells. if you are heading out this evening temperatures generally in the

mid—teens in any sunshine and it should feel quite pleasant, not too much of a breeze for most of us. into tonight we are looking at further outbreaks of rain over scotland, tending to become light and patchy in nature where we have had some daytime showers elsewhere and the should largely fade away adding variable amounts of cloud over night. it will be milder than the nightjust gone with the overnight lows dipping away to around 7—10 c. as for tomorrow we do have a cold front working eastwards but actually it is not making much in the way of progress inland. it will bring a bit more cloud to parts of northern ireland and scotland which could locally be on the heavy side. furthersouth which could locally be on the heavy side. further south are dry a story but still cloud building is the day wears on, showers cropping up generally from around dorset to around yorkshire and then any way to the south—east of that, some of these showers could be on the sharp side. if you are in the sunshine and temperatures could get up to around 19 or 20 celsius at best, and looking further out thursday night into friday this cold front making

its journey south—eastwards across the country will tend to pep up some of their showers, too. the showers focused across wales, central and eastern england, and could feel quite wet in places, actually come out feeling quite cool if you are stuck under the cloud. but it will be a drier day for parts of scotland and northern ireland. temperatures once again getting up into the mid to upper teens for many of us. as for this weekend, the further south you are something drier and brighter. always the chance for a bit more cloud and outbreaks of rain over scotland and northern ireland. but in the sunshine it should feel pleasantly warm.

you are watching the football news show, we are live on a day that could define the history of one love modern football's great clubs. we're at the etihad stadium — where in about 5 hours — manchester city will attempt to take a huge leap towards a tantilising treble when they face real madrid in the champions league semi final second leg.

already the concourses are milling with activity.