tv Political Thinking with Nick... BBC News May 21, 2023 12:30pm-1:00pm BST
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this is bbc news. the headlines... ukraine's president zelensky has said he won't enter into peace talks with russia until its army leaves ukrainian territory. speaking at the g7 summit injapan, he said other leaders could be tempted to "wage similar wars" if putin's aggression was left unchecked. president biden says vladimir putin "will not break our resolve" as the us announces a new package of military aid for ukraine including ammunition, artillery, armoured vehicles, and training for soldiers. representatives of the warring factions in sudan have signed an agreement for a week—long ceasefire, following talks in jeddah. the deal will allow humanitarian access and the withdrawal of forces from hospitals and essential facilities. people in greece are voting
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in parliamentary elections. polls suggest the governing centre—right new democracy party is on course to win the most seats. now on bbc news, political thinking with nick robinson. hello and welcome to political thinking, a conversation with, rather than an interrogation of, someone who shapes our political thinking about what shapes theirs. it isn't that long ago, since nicola sturgeon looked to be unassailable as first minister of scotland. she and her party, the snp, were held up as a contrast to the chaos and the division of the tories down south. yet since she stood down as first minister, pretty much
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anything that could go wrong has gone wrong, as part of a police investigation into the snp�*s finances, which has a long way to run yet. now, even though no—one�*s been charged, her party finds itself in the worst crisis it's faced, certainly since alex salmond became first minister 16 years ago. my guest this week is not sturgeon, it's not salmond. it is the new rising star of the snp, the leader of the party in westminster, stephen flynn, who seized thejob. and yes, many people think he did seize it, at the age ofjust31i. the leader of the third biggest party in the house of commons is already beginning to dream out loud about the possibility of being the kingmaker after the next westminster election. stephen flynn, welcome to political thinking. thank you, nick. could you have possibly picked a worse time to become a leader of the snp? it's been an interesting period, to say the least.
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i don't think anyone had foreseen some of the challenges which we've had to face internally. but, you know, where there's challenge, there's also opportunity. i'm a big believer in grasping opportunities. it's why i'm probably sitting here talking to you just now. so it's an opportunity for the party to look at itself and see what can and should be done better. i know the first minister, humza yousaf, is obviously in the same headspace as i am in relation to that and i think the membership are as well. we've got to renew notjust the party but to renew our message and make sure that that, you know, that trust that we've built up with the electorate over so many years continues well into the future. as you've watched this unfold, nicola sturgeon herself says even in her worst nightmares, she couldn't have imagined what has unfolded in recent weeks, how is it left you? i mean, angry, confused, sad? maybe all of those things at different moments. i mean, we've kind of had
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to take it on the chin. and, you know, certainly from myself, i've had to to answer a lot of questions in relation to things that i don't really know a lot about. the internal workings of the party is not something that i'd ever closely associated myself with or necessarily thought about in great detail. you know, maybe, maybe that's my feeling. —— you know, maybe, maybe that's my failing. maybe i should have done that and i should have done that as well. but, you know, we're i guess we need to be and what we need to be focused on is what is what comes next and how we fix this. i raised an eyebrow when i mentioned how young you are, and the reason i mentioned it is as i was looking into your career, it made me realise that so much of what has formed the backdrop to modern politics, you weren't old enough to really experience. you've no memories of margaret thatcher, i assume. you were nine when tony blair was elected. you're only 18 when alex salmond became first minister and the era
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of snp dominance began. it means, in a sense, you've never known it hard for your party, have you? no, i don't think that would be the case, because i don't think it gets harder than what we had to deal with in 2014 when, you know, everything that we worked towards for many people for decades, me for for a few years, in terms of the independence referendum, that was the hardest moment because we had scotland's future in our hands and, and we chose not to... well, the people of scotland chose not to follow the path i thought they would. that was the hardest moment without a shadow of a doubt. you thought they would, you believed you'd win? 0h, absolutely. and, you know, i was pounding the streets like everyone else and the positivity of the campaign. and, you know, we really believed that we were part of something that was going to going to change society for the better. now, is that in part because you grew up not in a politicalfamily, but you did grow up in a city that became known as scotland's yes city. there were more votes for independence in dundee than anywhere else. yeah.
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yeah, there was. and i guess a lot of my politics has been shaped by my upbringing and my experiences. and, you know, ijust wish that we'd got to a place where aberdeen, where i'm proud to call home and have lived for a long time, if people of aberdeen had followed the same route as the people of dundee, but you know, next time they will, next time, they will. he says confidently! we'll talk about that a little bit later on. what then drew you into politics? your dad's an engineer, your mum a nurse, it's not, as i understand it, a political family. yeah, well, when i was growing up, there wasn't politics on the table what my mum and dad were focused on. and at that time, my mum had very many differentjobs, was just to put food on the table. and, you know, we were like passing ships in the night, sometimes, just getting by. that's a normal life for for so many people. but what kind of focussed my mind
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was certainly around the era of the iraq war, and looking at that and, you know, a government making a decision which the public quite clearly didn't agree with, that the scottish public most definitely didn't agree with. and we had no agency. so you're feeling like a spectator as decisions are taken for scotland. did you personally feel like a spectator? because you had this bad accident in your teens which left you pretty much bedbound for a while? yeah, so i was walking through school one day and collapsed and i had a rare hip condition called vascular necrosis, which left me disabled for the best part of 17 or 18 years. when i was diagnosed with that condition, i had to think long and hard about what i wanted to do with my life, because i couldn't go and follow my mates into being welders or plumbers orfiries or something. and i had to do something different. so i picked up books and started reading and learning. so how disabled were you? how long were you having to spend in bed? how unable were you to have the normal life of a teenager? yeah.
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it was taken away from me entirely. i was laid up in bed on traction. i was in and out of hospital. looking back on it, i was probably depressed because your hopes and aims and everything that you enjoy doing was taken away from you. and i ended up, i was told at one point you'll be in a wheelchair, which i didn't want to do, so i ended up on double crutches, then taught myself to kind of walk with one crutch, which when i was obviously elected to parliament, i still had. but not now because you've had a new hip. yeah, i had a hip replacement a couple of years ago now, which has completely transformed my life. now, i'm fascinated by the link between what happened to you and the politician you are. this gave you a lot of time. was that time to study politics? was that time to watch the tv, listen to the radio, read the papers? yeah, yeah. and it allowed me to change my outlook on where things were, maybe not to change it,
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but perhaps to understand the world better than i ever had before. and it focused my mind on making use of the talents that i had and where my interests lay. and, you know, i was the first member of my family to get a degree from university, and then obviously to break into the political world was was quite a step. there's not a lot of folk with my background growing up in a variety of different places and dundee and up in brecon and angus as well, who, who find themselves in the house of commons asking questions to the prime minister. you made a point of that when you delivered your maiden speech, not just where you're from, not just the fact you're working class, but also the fact that you had, i assume it's not a word you'd use now, you were disabled rather than that you are, and that was unusual. do you think what you experience gave you a drive, a passion to get over it?
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yes. i actually didn't talk about being disabled until probably after i got the hip replacement, because it was very difficult for me to accept that. i never wanted to be defined by my injuries, as i seen it. but, yeah... i's funny, i get obviously heckled quite a lot, but i've got quite a thick skin because i've had to experience quite a lot at a young age. what did you experience? yes, i recall being in the street and people shouting at me, calling me a benefits cheat when i'm walking down the street with my wife, my then girlfriend. how would they possibly come to thatjudgment? i don't know. because you had crutches? yeah, because i had a crutch and i was walking in a way which obviously upset them. they thought you were putting it on? yeah. effectively, yeah. and at that point i was a leading councillor in the city. and you know, when you go through the school of hard knocks, you realise what's important and what's valuable. and i guess when you're in the heat of the westminster chamber, it allows you to reset quite quickly. i just wonder though whether it gave you that determination.
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i mean, you look at your career, you only run for council in 2015. you're the group leader a year later. you only become an mp in 2019, you become the leader three years later. pretty much everybody we called to ask about you said he's ruthless. is that the right word? lucky, ruthless, probably a bit of both. as i said at the start, when i see an opportunity, i like to to grasp it. i've never been given a hand up in life, i've had to work for everything that's been in front of me. maybe there's nothing wrong with being ruthless. no, maybe there isn't. and, you know, i think it's something which is bred into a lot of folk, certainly from my sort of background that you need to get on and do things, and nobody can hold you back but yourself. so i've just gone for the opportunities as i've seen them. i think you've always denied it,
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but pretty much everybody in westminster thinks you ousted ian blackford as the leader of the snp in westminster. yeah. i don't know which part of him you were supposed to have stabbed, whether it was the front or the back. but they think you got rid of him. well, you don't tend to do that to someone and still have a pretty good relationship with them as me and ian do. now, this ruthlessness, it seems to me, continues in the way you've used the opportunity because you're the leader of the third biggest party. the snp gets two questions at prime minister's questions. you get a lot of prominence as a result of that. prominent political commentator tim shipman of the sunday times said you always come to prime minister's questions with a flick—knife in your pocket. let's say that's one way of putting it. i like to make sure that i don't miss at pmqs, whether that's whether i'm talking about the conservative party, the labour party or, on the odd occasion, the lib dems. was it a conscious decision to be different from your predecessor? it's just my style. and how did you develop that?
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because i guess when you were bedbound, you had quite a lot of time to sit and watch and admire and think, that works and that doesn't. yeah, i've always been a fan of, and this is going to make me sound a little bit of an anorak, but when i'm listening to people doing interviews or listening to people speaking, i like to pause it and think, what would i say? how would i answer that? and then listen to what they do. and the same applies to the house of commons chamber. how do you present yourself in a way which captures people's imagination? one of the best speeches i've seen since i was elected was tom tugendhat, on the back of the situation in afghanistan. now the conservative security minister. yeah, of course. and tom had the entire chamber in the palm of his hand. and the ability to control the westminster chamber is quite a thing. who else in the commons do you look at and think they know how to give a speech? 0h, david lammy. david's ability to control the chamber, and certainly when i was in there and he was doing a lot of stuff, it was just
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phenomenal to sit and watch how he controlled the chamber. now why westminster? it seems to me the logic — a young man whose life is in scotland, who wants scotland to be independent, go into the scottish parliament. yeah. so at that time in 2019, the battle for brexit was here. that was the big issue in politics. so we wanted to come down and make sure that we could be that loud voice for scotland to try and stop brexit. so of course what happened in england kind of made that a bit of a moot issue because boris won so handsomely. because there's an irony at the moment, the consensus amongst people who follow these things, the political experts, is the snp are going to lose seats in the westminster election. now i'm not going to insult your intelligence by asking you because you've got to deny it but that's what they think, 0k? and at the very moment everybody�*s talking about the snp going backwards, stephen flynn comes along, having just become leader and says, i'm going to be the kingmaker after the next general election. so how much do you want to be
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nick clegg to keir starmer? definitely won't be doing any nick clegg type policy u—turns, that's for sure. look, there's an opportunity... quite like the job? in terms of being...? deputy prime minister? 0h goodness, no. look, we're not here to be in government. we're here to secure concessions in relation to devolution, where i think we need to get the discussion to. i think we need to be saying to the labour party, why, why don't we devolve energy policies and migration on the single market access like northern ireland has? but then also why don't we devolve those powers over scotland's constitutional future as well? the puzzle people have is how you think you can get concessions. now we're speculating, labour might get a majority, they might lose the election, but let's just imagine it's a hung parliament with labour as the biggest party. along comes stephen flynn and he says, we'll never back the tories, we're the snp. so keir starmer says to you, doesn't he, thank you very much indeed, bring us down if you like, you'll pay a huge price if you do, bye. if keir starmer wants to get
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into a situation where our very basic asks in relation to the devolution of further powers to holyrood, the right to decide our own future, if he's not willing to countenance that discussion, i guess that's a matter for him to then explain that to the people of scotland. i would perhaps flip it back onto the labour party. i think that when push comes to shove, keir starmer is going to want certain things. —— is going to want certainty. what we know from keir starmer up to now is he's desperate to be prime minister, it's why he's changed his mind on so many policies. it's why he was an arch remainer and is now an arch brexiteer. he's not an arch brexiteer. he's the man that thinks going back in the single market would be daft. so i think we need to reflect upon where labour are in terms of the policies and also how we can perhaps drag them to a position which is much more progressive and beneficial, notjust for people in scotland, but people right across the uk. so that's the position. you'll make demands. you won't want to go into government, but demands for a period of stability. yeah.
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and those policy issues will be quite clear. it will be empowering scotland's parliament on the big issues to make sure that we can grow our economy and offer opportunity to people, but also to to allow people in scotland to decide their future. i think that's a pretty basic thing. can't help noticing that one of the things you're talking about is not a second independence referendum, but more devolution. so do you think there's another phase in devolution? it may be worth talking to gordon brown about this, who's been looking at this for keir starmer. so, on the gordon brown side of things, i think we need to see much more meat on the bones, and we can offer the solutions to the labour party in that regard. let's talk about energy policy, immigration policy, access to the eu single market, the employment law that the stuc agree with us that should be devolved to holyrood. but within that, we need to have that discussion about can we devolve the powers for scotland to decide its own future to holyrood, to let holyrood decide at a time of its choosing to allow the people of scotland to define their own future? is that a conversation you can have
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with senior labour figures, with gordon brown, before a general election, or do you think you're just putting down a marker? "we're ready to have the conversation, but not yet." yeah, i don't think gordon brown is going to come and have a conversation with me about such things, if i may. because the labour party would be very worried about the optics. i'm not going to disabuse you of this notion. yeah. and what we do know is likely there's going to be a hung parliament and it's time for scotland's voice to be held in westminster. so let's do it. well, let's go to independence then. mike russell, president of the snp, didn't only say what you and others have said, that this is the biggest and most challenging crisis the snp has ever faced. he then went on and said, i don't think independence can be secured right now. does that mean
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this year or do you think it means not for a long time? so i think when mike was was making those comments a few weeks ago, what we hadn't seen was the local government elections in england and the labour party are not where they need to be in order to win a majority, irrespective of what keir�*s tried to try to put forward. and that political reality of the hung parliament affords us an opportunity. it's a political opportunity, but we also need to get... just to be clear what you mean by that, an opportunity to demand a second referendum. to demand that holyrood is empowered to make its own choice in relation to scotland's constitutional future? absolutely. in other words, not that westminster agrees to a date for a second referendum, as it were, like cameron did with alex salmond, but he hands the power across to the edinburgh parliament? yes, this is the important point because as we now know, due to the supreme court last year, the authority and control over this rests with westminster. that's wrong. it should rest in holyrood and it should be for democratically elected members in scotland to have the power to defend —— elected members in scotland to have the power to define our own future and to put that
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forward to the public. you mentioned 2014, the year, of course, of the referendum. what we might one day call the first referendum on scottish independence. since then everything has gone the snp�*s way. you've had english conservative rule for 13 years. you've had a conservative leader who you can portray as an out of touch tory toff. borisjohnson. you've had brexit that you'd said was a disaster for scotland and the scots didn't want. you've had not one, but two charismatic first ministers and leaders of the snp. you have had 16 years in government, your party, to prove what you can do. you've barely moved a percentage point in favour of independence. we are basically where we were when i was reporting on the independence referendum back in 2014. yeah, we're basically 50—50 and have been for for a long time. 50—50 is generous. depending on what is on 46 in one poll, 48. these numbers do matter. yeah, but broadly speaking, there's been one in the last couple of years where we've been ahead and then the no side's being ahead as well. but broadly speaking, roughly 50—50,
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we're stuck in a logjam. and the only way to break that logjam, in my view, is to obviously let folk decide where they want to go. but we need to have an opportunity to get to that space, which is what the hung parliament affords us, that affords us the opportunity for scotland to be empowered. let's just get a sense on a few issues, on independence, obviously we talk about this if there ever is a referendum again about it, would an independent scotland have a monarchy? would king charles or king william, if it's king william by then, be the monarch of scotland? so i'm quite relaxed about this because i think that the people of scotland should be able to say who the head of state is, and if they want it to be the monarchy, then so be it. if they don't, then they should be empowered to change it. you are a republican and so is humza yousaf, the first minister, you both went to the coronation anyway.
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yeah. so you're saying, well, there'll be a referendum before you went to the coronation of king william? yeah, i think. i think it's for the folk in scotland to decide where they want to go. and what does that mean? it means that if they want to change the head of state to a democratically elected one, then that would that would be something that isn'tjust a bailout. you're a republican. you don't believe it's democratic to have a monarch. you just sit it out. no, no. i would be i would be supportive of, obviously, a democratically elected head of state. i think that's important. and a referendum on it? yeah, of course. at a time that the public want that, people stick it in their manifestos and independent scotland and then let's do it. but the point of like why we went to the coronation is an important one because the head of state is our head of state and deserves to be respected in that regard. now, if you have a democratically elected head of state who's not of the political ilk that you like, you're still going to have to go and respect them because that's how democracy works. but at a personal level rather than a political level, how was it for you, working class boy from dundee who doesn't believe in the monarchy, and there you are, sat in a row
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with a lot of people being asked to notjust pay their respects, much more than that? i was quite uncomfortable with it. the opulence, you know, there's there's folk in my constituency, right across scotland, who've got nothing, can't afford to heat their homes or feed their kids, can't afford baby formula, as we've seen in the news over the course of the last few days. and meantime, there's one of the world's most expensive jewels walking past you on a crown on someone�*s head. that's a hard thing for me to to get my head around. i don't necessarily understand why we're in that space. but i was there for the reason that i'm the leader of the third party at westminster. it's the head of state and i'll respect them whilst they're still in that role. did you mouth the oath of allegiance or do you think it was hypocritical to do it? i didn't open my mouth. apart from to express complete shock at how good the welsh singer was, i've forgotten... bryn. phenomenal that i think that was the only occasion i opened my mouth in the course of the couple hours i was there. now, you said at the beginning that this was an opportunity, this crisis your party faced.
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what i didn't ask you and i should have done is, well, what has to change in your party for it to be an opportunity for the party? i think within the party itself, there's obviously a desire for a bit more openness, discussion, transparency, and i'm game for that. i think that's a good thing. disagreement, is that allowed? it was the most controlling party machine, and i've seen a few, that i have ever seen in british politics. well, i've neverfelt like i've not been able to to disagree within the party. i know all of us have. —— i know others have. you can disagree without being disagreeable. and i think within a political party, we need to be able to have disagreements and discussions both internally and externally. but once we decide where we want to go, we need to go there together as a united force. and i think we can get back to that place. and is it time to say, look, we've been kidding ourselves, a second independence referendum is years away. we should prepare for it, but it's not coming soon. so we need to do two things. we need to get the independence campaign up and running and be at the forefront of it. we are the party of change. we are the party of independence. not only, because some people
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say the snp is in risk of killing the independence campaign by trying to run every part of it. i think we can certainly be at the heart of the independence campaign because that's what we're here for. but simultaneously, that general election offers us an opportunity to to really see the stars align and give give us a chance to have that referendum. now, when you're not watching speeches and pausing them in your spare time, you're watching the beloved dundee united. indeed. now we're talking before, a crucial away game. yeah. against livingston. do you fear it could be a bad couple of years for both of the teams that you currently spend so much of your time supporting? i don't think united are in a particularly good spot at the moment, which is very frustrating for me. it's a big passion of mine and i'm fearing the worst at this point as i think a lot of united fans are. you think
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you're going down and the same with the snp going down? oh no, the snp are going up. you know, there's a lot of folk here who are hoping for the demise of the scottish national party, but i'm very confident about where we are. you know, we'rejust getting started and we're moving on to brighter and better things. i might test that with you in a few months�* time. stephen flynn, for now, thanks forjoining me on political thinking. thank you. well, so much has changed in just a few months. back then, we used to hear from leaders of the snp that a move to independence would come soon. it might be triggered by a general election victory. by victory in the courts over the resistance of the westminster government to agree to another referendum. whatever happened, it would come soon. now what we're hearing from the leader of the snp at westminster is if there's a hung parliament after the next general election, if the labour party are the largest party in that parliament and if they agree, they'll ask for the power to hold an independence referendum. when would it be? who knows? thanks for watching.
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there is a lot of fine weather to come across the uk in the week ahead — our good old friend high pressure building up from the azores. some areas may catch a few showers but those will be in the minority. in the sunshine, many will end up feeling rather warmer, actually, particularly in contrast to recent days. here is the high pressure stretching up from the azores. you can see it wobbles about day on day, and those changes in wind direction will have subtle effects on how the weather plays out. low pressure to the north occasionally trailing its weather fronts south, giving the increased chance of a shower in one 01’ two areas. here's how we end sunday afternoon in terms of our temperatures. 20—21 across many parts of england and wales, 16 for scotland
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and northern ireland, where we've had the tail end of a weather front around here through sunday daytime, and it will continue to slowly slip south overnight sunday. very little rain, though, in association with that. if anything, perhaps a greater chance of the odd punchier shower across east anglia thanks to something a little more unsettled out in the north sea. just 4 degrees for newcastle. clear skies, light winds underneath that ridge high pressure taking into monday. here's the high on monday. as you can see, just trying to continue pushing east, sending those showers further east into the north sea. could be the odd shower around early on, though, across parts of east anglia and i think we'll keep a little more cloud for lincolnshire, east anglia and into the south—east through the day. the weather front makes its way south, weakening all the while, but what it mightjust do is enable a few showers to break out across northern england on monday afternoon, the odd punchier one maybe, most likely for high ground across the pennines. 20—21 in the sunshine again on monday, a little warmer in scotland and northern ireland because there will be
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more sunshine here. we are looking at a glorious week ahead for the chelsea flower show, a lot of fine weather to come, just a bit of a dip in temperatures on tuesday. that could be the case for many parts of england and wales. little bit of a change of wind direction, pulling in something a little cooler off the north sea, and the chance of a little more cloud around. instead of 20—21, we are looking at 18—19. scotland and northern ireland, 16—17. as the week plays out, high pressure stays with us so, aside from the risk of the odd shower across scotland and northern ireland courtesy of the tail end of some weather fronts, very little rain to speak of through the week ahead.
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live from london, this is bbc news. ukraine's president zelensky says russia does not occupy the embattled city of bakhmut after the kremlin said it's taken full control of the city. bakhmut is not occupied by russian federation, as of today. there are no two or three interpretations of those words. president biden says putin "will not break our resolve" as the us announces a new package of military aid for ukraine. the a reaffirmed our shared and unwavering commitment to stand for the brave people of ukraine. —— dj seven.
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