fears mount over a potential default in washington. lawmakers are still unable strike a deal and the deadline looms ever closer. we'll have the latest. plus, the price of milk spikes in india as the world's largest producer faces a combination of lower yields and rising costs. hello and welcome to asia business report. i'm monica miller. we start in the united states, where fears of a potential default are growing. lawmakers are struggling to reach a deal on the country's debt ceiling, with the us house speaker kevin mccarthy saying on wednesday that negotiators remain far apart. our north america business correspondent michelle fleury has the latest from new york.

there is a roughly one in four chance that the us will hit the so—called x—date, when the us government runs out of money to pay its bills without a deal to raise the debt limit. that is according to the banking giantjp morgan chase. and they say the odds are getting worse. that forecast comes after house speaker kevin mccarthy said on wednesday that he thought progress could be made, but warned the two sides remain far apart. republicans are warning that any deal must cut future federal spending in exchange for raising the debt ceiling — a red line for the white house. on wall street, us stocks fell as investors have been watching these talks closely for any sign of an agreement. and even if a deal is done in time, economists say that depending on the details, cuts to government spending are likely create economic headwinds that could bring down inflation — a possible silver lining for the federal reserve, which has been raising interest

rates to fight inflation. fed officials are still debating whether to raise interest rates or hold them steady when they meet injune. that was michelle fleury reporting. the debt ceiling brinkmanship has resulted in a credit rating agency, fitch, placing the us triple—a the debt ceiling brinkmanship has resulted in the credit rating agency, fitch, placing the us triple—a status into negative territory. fitch said the increase reflects the political partisanship that is hindering the resolution to raise or suspend that debt limit. let us move to the latest fed minutes. the us central bank are still undecided on the outlook for interest rate increases. the aggressive rate hikes in the us last year had put pressure on central banks in the region to keep up. so what does this latest fed minute mean for interest rates in asia? i spoke to diana mousina, deputy chief economist at australia's amp. earlier, she said that we are

getting very close to the peak of interest rates for many major central banks in the region. i suppose the biggest risk is really around future rate hikes and the potential for those rate hikes, because the sentiment over the past few months across most global central banks has been one where we are seeing central banks really take their foot off the brake and we are getting very close to the peak in the level of interest rates, and for the majority of the major central banks, we are actually looking at potentially one more rate hike, if any, but the risk here, and the talks from central bank governors in the us over the past weeks have indicated that the risk is still with another hike in the us and maybe across other regions as well because inflation is proving to be harder to reduce than expected, especially around things like food inflation. we saw that in the uk. while the risk is with another

one or two hikes, i think we are very close to the end of the global tightening cycle. are we out of the woods when it comes to a recession, talk of a recession, in this part of the world? i don't not think that we are completely out of the woods on that. i think the global economy has a risk of going into recession —— i don't think that we are completely out of the woods on that. i think the global economy has a risk of going into recession sometime in the next 12 to 18 months. that is a very large time horizon, but the recession odds just keep getting pushed back because the global economy actually turned up at the beginning of the year so i think recession risks in 2024 are quite high. i would give it a 40% to 50% chance that the global economoy will beat a recession. shares of nvidia have spiked in after hours trading. thejump comes after the chip—maker issued a better than expected forecast when it released its quarterly earnings on wednesday. nvidia's shares have already been trending upwards this year over optimism on the company's

leading position for ai—related chips. nvidia is a leading maker of chips used for video games and cloud computing applications. the chinese commerce minister wang wentao is expected to meet the us trade representative katherine tai later this week. mr wang is scheduled to meet ms tai on the sidelines of the apec ministerial gathering scheduled for the 25th and 26th of may in detroit. the expected engagement comes after us presidentjoe biden said at the g7 summit in hiroshima this past weekend that the focus is on de—risking confrontations with china, not de—coupling. in this context, de—risking is meant to be a slightly more moderate approach to reducing reliance on trade ties with china while protecting national interests and technological advances. earlier, i spoke to frank lavin, chief executive of export now and a former us ambassador to singapore. he told me any meeting between the officials would be a good gesture. i think it is an important

gesture, and a useful meeting, but businesses are all recalibrating their china exposure, in part because of the political tensions, and in part because chinese economic growth is slowing down a bit, but, look, it is still the number two market in the world, so our businesses have to take china seriously. the new term that came out of the g7 summit is de—risking, what are the main issues to be discussed at this two day meeting? i think from the chinese side they were unhappy with the extra tariffs president trump originally imposed and president biden retained in place. they are also unhappy about some of the chip policy and some of the tech policies that they view might harm chinese industries. and from the us side the us has been prominently unhappy about access to markets and what the us views as unfair trading policies that china tends to have one of the highest tariff rates of the major economies so it is harderfor the us companies to sell onto that market. that is former us ambassador

frank lavin there. the taliban in afghanistan say the national flag carrier ariana afghan airlines has formally resumed direct passenger service to china. the flight from kabul to the xinjiang region will operate once a week and will return to kabul on the same day. the air route was halted three years ago due to the covid pandemic. the taliban run administration has not been internationally recognised but china is among the countries trying to build a relationship with the country. taliban officials say a chinese company has recently expressed interest in investing billions of dollars in afghanistan's lithium deposits. milk prices in india have risen by around 15% over the course of last year. from the consumer to the dairy farmer, everyone has been feeling the pinch. the bbc�*s arunoday mukharji finds out what is ailing the industry in a country that is the world's largest milk producer, contributing to a quarter of all global output.

tucked away in the heart of old delhi is this 80—year—old shop. its claim to fame, traditional indian milk sweets. it sees a steady stream of customers through the day. but with milk prices on the boil all through last year, business has simmered. translation: our profits are down. i customers are now buying half the quantity of sweets compared to a year ago. india's food inflation is primarily driven by cereals and milk. and in the world's largest milk producing nation, import of milk and cream has gone up by over 40% in the last two years. travelling 100 kilometres outside delhi to neighbouring haryana, the reasons become clear. this was once a village of dairy farmers. until two years ago, this man had run a thriving dairy farm for two decades.

translation: our cattle were falling severely ill and dying. i buying new ones is very expensive and the cost of fodder had also doubled. nearly 200,000 cattle died of lumpy skin disease in india last year, stemming the flow of milk production in the country. industry experts say the actual number could be higher. this dairy farmer admits it's been tough to keep his business afloat. supply chain disruptions post—covid coupled with climate change has meant cattle feed now costs twice what it did two years ago. translation: | had two | employees, but i couldn't afford their salaries, so i let them go. i too am thinking of leaving this business. a majority of the farmers of this village are slowly switching from dairy farming to regularfarming. but experts say it's very important to maintain the health of the indian dairy sector because, as per government estimates, it employs nearly 80 million

people and is worth around $121 billion. according to major players, india's production is still below global standards, and a lot can be done to make dairy farming profitable. translation: the indian dairy farmer gets only ten to 15 - litres of milk per cow per day. but the same cow abroad will give 28 to 32 litres of milk. we need to accept global practices and invest more in research and development. to do that, experts say the government should ramp up vaccinations for livestock, help regulate fodder costs and provide dairy farmers and assured income for their output. otherwise, being the world's largest milk producer could come at a steep cost. arunoday mukharji, bbc news. follow the latest news on the

website. i am monica miller, goodbye for now. it may seem strange that london's violence reduction unit would come to a primary school like this one in croydon, but the idea is that children who need support should be given that from the earliest possible point. and this school already benefits from funding for schemes that teach about healthy relationships and teamwork. but £4 million is to be made available from next september to primary schools specifically for speech and language skills. what we know is that, sadly, one in two prisoners have been excluded from school, and what we further know is that if you've got special educational needs, then you're four times as likely to get excluded. we really need to be investing

in programmes like tender and nurture that give additional support, absolutely, to young people who need it. it also gives the space for teachers. and in that way, we hope to be investing in inclusion but making sure that we're reducing exclusions. the funding is going to schools in seven boroughs with higher levels of children being absent from school or being suspended or with higher levels of domestic violence, like here in croydon, and the hope is that the earlier that support comes, the better chance of setting those children on a positive path. hey, i'm zof with the catch up! tonight — netflix cracks down, euro qualifiers and a surprise statue. first, though, some breaking news to bring you. tina turner has died aged 83 after a long illness. she was one of the most

famous rock singers ever — known for hits like proud mary and simply the best. next, more details from police in south wales about events that led to the deaths of kyrees sullivan and harvey evans in cardiff on monday. security cam footage showed a police van following two teenagers on an bike, at a distance, minutes before the accident. police confirmed that officers had briefly followed two boys but say they were half a mile away at the time of the accident. the families of both boys have said the pair were best friends and paid tribute to them. now, are you using someone's netflix account you shouldn't be? you might not be able to soon, cos they're cracking down on password—sharing in the uk. netflix have started sending emails reminding people it is one household for use. so if you are using your ex's netflix account, maybe log out now!

in football, it's all things euro 2024 qualifiers today. eze has been picked for the england squad for the first time, but sterling's been left out. and time now to leave you with ten seconds of surprise! this is a lewis capaldi statue made by his old school. it kind of looks like me rolling out of bed on a monday, not going to lie, but the students deliberately made it look unusual and lewis, of course, loves it! you're all caught up now — have a good night!

hello there. welcome along. i'm paul scott at the bbc sport centre. and here's what we've got coming up on the programme. fans and team—mates show support for viniciusjunior, ahead of real madrid's first match since the brazilian was subject to racist abuse at valencia. a photo finish at the giro d'italia, as geraint thomas remains in the pinkjersey heading into the final stages. and we meet the nigerian teenager moulded by the uk's nfl academy and tipped to be a star of the future.

hello there. welcome along to the programme.