responsibility of again given us responsibility of governing the country the next five years. governing the country the next five ears. t, , t, governing the country the next five ears. ;, , k, , , years. people on the streets here are already _ years. people on the streets here are already convinced _ years. people on the streets here are already convinced that - years. people on the streets here are already convinced that he - years. people on the streets here are already convinced that he has} are already convinced that he has already won this election, most of the votes are counted, he is currently seven percentage points ahead. this is bbc news, welcome to istanbul, but heart of turkey's largest city. you can see the atmosphere on the streets. you can see behind me the headquarters of erdogan�*s to party after he declared victory in the turkish presidential election. that is yet to be officially confirmed, but better than main news agencies, one which

is a state agency controlled by erdogan, has a wide sweep... the other is in opposition leaning news agency. both of them now are reporting the same result which is that president erdogan looks like he is about to get another five years in power. he has gone over that 50% line which is needed to be turkey's next president. kilicdaroglu, his challenger has been speaking this evening in ankara, talking about dark days ahead, he says the turkey. people have been taken aggravating here all day. as soon as soon as abating finished at five o'clock, those ballot boxes were opened and the votes were counted. we expected it, always, to be a quick process can lead to two weeks ago, the first presidential election, which was also wrapped in with parliamentary elections. that time around, we saw queues at polling stations because the ballot paper were so long that some people were struggling to fold it up and squeeze it into the envelope they had to put it in to

make it official. this time around, it has been much swifter, and as night has fallen here in istanbul, and as the rain starts to fall, the party on the streets here are just beginning. it is a very different picture in ankara, at the opposition party headquarters, where kilicdaroglu chp opposition party and the other parties who coalesced around him as he the main opposition candidate are trying to decide what to do next. they have urged dead supporters even now to stay close to the ballot boxes and watch all of those... to make sure there is no impropriety. i was talking earlier... we go to this report. that sounds very different there. i am outside the opposition headquarters, the chp building here in ankara. i can hear... i'm not sure the microphone is picking up, butjust outside here is a big road,

a a—lane highway, lots of honking going on, lots of people honking to support erdogan. they are yelling good kemal out of the window. it is very dirty in the morning, people are honking. there is a big banner here with kemal kilicdaroglu face on it people are honking and responding to it. the energy here is not the same as you are seeing there. figs to it. the energy here is not the same as you are seeing there. as we were “ust same as you are seeing there. as we were just discussing, _ same as you are seeing there. as we were just discussing, obviously - same as you are seeing there. as we were just discussing, obviously you | were just discussing, obviously you can see what is happening there, in ankara, where president erdogan will head and make an acceptance speech from the presidential palace... people here don't wait for those official results, and you can see from the reaction, as you can see, the honking horns, the flags... people make up their mind based on what the politicians are telling them, they don't wait for the official confirmation, of those

official confirmation, of those official things... official confirmation, of those official things. . ._ official things. .. definitely. i think it is — official things. .. definitely. i think it is only _ official things. .. definitely. i think it is only helped... - official things. .. definitely. i | think it is only helped... that atmosphere, by the president claiming victory. everybody is getting behind him, it seems that they are thinking that this is the end of it, this is another road. we should say that kilicdaroglu has not conceded defeat, yet. we are expecting to hear from conceded defeat, yet. we are expecting to hearfrom him conceded defeat, yet. we are expecting to hear from him shortly, later this evening. so, expecting to hear from him shortly, laterthis evening. so, not expecting to hear from him shortly, later this evening. so, not sure if he will concede then, or if he will say... has been said fast in both rounds in saying that every one of their election... should stay at the boxes until every last vote is counted. tonight, we have been in the press room in the building behind me, and that is what they have been reading. do not leave your station and tell every single ballot has been counted, even though the numbers, at least when i looked, it was 52 to 47% in favour of the president, they say, it is not official until everyone is counted.

as you say, people are making up their own minds about the conclusion of the election. you their own minds about the conclusion of the election.— of the election. you specialise in business and _ of the election. you specialise in business and finance, _ of the election. you specialise in business and finance, let's - of the election. you specialise in business and finance, let's talk i business and finance, let's talk about that, the problems with the turkish economy have been going on for a long time now, some people blame president ed wang for making those problems worse in terms of some of the decisions he has made about interest rates. what does that mean for the turkish economy, the people here have already and suffering for a long time. that is in question _ suffering for a long time. that is in question everyone _ suffering for a long time. that is in question everyone has - suffering for a long time. that is in question everyone has been l suffering for a long time. that is - in question everyone has been asking during this campaign. they ask, what is anotherfive during this campaign. they ask, what is another five years after two decades of leadership, what will it mean? the president has been very opposed to higher interest rates to come back, he has called on the mother and father of all evil, and he told cnn in an interview earlier this week that he would continue with that policy, preventing the central bank from raising interest rates, as i say, which is a tool that most central banks in the rest of the world, certainly in the us

and the uk, they all use it to contain rising prices. here, inflation has raised eight and a half percent, 8.5%. it was at that in october, it has since fallen to 44%. i've been speaking to people rather season about what inflation means, and what the economic impact of that is. people say it is difficult to make ends meet, queueing at the grocery store has become much more expensive from a personal perspective. i shop at the same stores as everyone else in the capital, and i can see... on the shelves, because... food rotting on the shelves because people cannot afford to buy it. there is a rising inflation, they will have to see what policies he puts in place. some say he may raise rates a little bit, it is getting a bit loud again, you can hear outside, the president's supporters out here on the road.

that is a journalist in ankara tonight, you can see the different moods in those two camps here in turkey. thejubilation, the turkey. the jubilation, the exuberance, turkey. thejubilation, the exuberance, of the supporters of erdogan looking at a third term of him as president. remember, he was originally prime minister, 20 years in power now. and of course, the more muted reaction in the opposition areas tonight as they start to look at if any of the policies, any of the vision they have the turkey will be implemented in the coming days and weeks. let's talk, also in istanbul, to an economist and pollster. it is nice to talk to you. in this case, we had something to bolster the polls, the first round of presidential voting two weeks ago. does it look as if today has gone according to expectations?—

today has gone according to exectations? , ., ., expectations? this time around, definitely. _ expectations? this time around, definitely, the _ expectations? this time around, definitely, the polls _ expectations? this time around, definitely, the polls got - expectations? this time around, definitely, the polls got it - expectations? this time around, definitely, the polls got it more | definitely, the polls got it more right in comparison to the first round. you know, the official results are not in yet, but it seems like many of the polls got it right this time. ., ~ ., .,, this time. talk me through those olls that this time. talk me through those polls that we _ this time. talk me through those polls that we saw, _ this time. talk me through those polls that we saw, of _ this time. talk me through those polls that we saw, of course, - this time. talk me through those polls that we saw, of course, in i this time. talk me through those i polls that we saw, of course, in the first round, it was very much a close race, in fact, some pollsters were saying that in the to that first round, kilicdaroglu could win, he could win in round one. of course that was not the case. where did things go wrong? i that was not the case. where did things go wrong?— things go wrong? i am sorry, i didn't get _ things go wrong? i am sorry, i didn't get the _ things go wrong? i am sorry, i didn't get the last _ things go wrong? i am sorry, i didn't get the last bit - things go wrong? i am sorry, i didn't get the last bit because| things go wrong? i am sorry, i l didn't get the last bit because of the honking in the background. serra; the honking in the background. sorry about that, it — the honking in the background. sorry about that, it is _ the honking in the background. sorry about that, it is as _ the honking in the background. sorry about that, it is as noisy _ the honking in the background. sorry about that, it is as noisy where you are as it is where i am, down the road from akp. what went wrong in terms of the poll is the first time around, at one stage, the word was that kilicdaroglu could have won this in the first round of voting. why do you think the polls did not quite call it right? i why do you think the polls did not quite call it right?— quite call it right? i think that they main _ quite call it right? i think that they main issue _ quite call it right? i think that they main issue in _ quite call it right? i think that they main issue in the - quite call it right? i think that

they main issue in the first i quite call it right? i think that . they main issue in the first round was that... whether polls got it wrong... two things are underestimated. or miscalculated. firstly, the turnout for kilicdaroglu's supporters and adam and's supporters... the turnout was around 88%. when you look at it on a district level... kilicdaroglu's supporters turned out less and in the first one. it was... the impact of the fighting terrorism rhetoric that erdogan proposed... whereby he proposed that if kilicdaroglu were to win, he would not fight terrorism as well as he could... the impact of those two things were under calculated. i those two things were under calculated-— those two things were under calculated. i wonder about... obviously. — calculated. i wonder about... obviously, you _ calculated. i wonder about... obviously, you are _ calculated. i wonder about... obviously, you are an - calculated. i wonder about... - obviously, you are an economist. i wonder about mr adam and's handling

of the economy. some bot that would stand against him in this election —— mac mr erdogan. that does not seem to have affected his polling, does it? , ., , , seem to have affected his polling, does it? , ., _ ., . does it? obviously, the economic oli does it? obviously, the economic policy choices _ does it? obviously, the economic policy choices of _ does it? obviously, the economic policy choices of the _ does it? obviously, the economic policy choices of the current - policy choices of the current administration had lead turkey to an undesirable position in terms of inflation and economic vulnerabilities. it appears very clearly that the electorate, a, found erdogan a more credible going forward, and the, found the identity proposal of mr erdogan around... the identity that mr erdogan put forward over the economy polls that they have been chasing for the last year and a half. ~ ., .,

have been chasing for the last year anda half. ~ ., ., ~' and a half. what do you think will ha en and a half. what do you think will happen next? _ and a half. what do you think will happen next? obviously, - and a half. what do you think will happen next? obviously, those i and a half. what do you think will- happen next? obviously, those issues that were so important before the election, none of them have gone away. as you rightly say, we are still waiting for the final result, it looks all intents and purposes like erdogan has one. how will he deal with those issues? will he see this as an endorsement of the approach he has taken thus far? look, now, the people's alliance, led by erdogan has a majority in parliament and he has a clear winner in the presidential election. now it is up to him to fix the economy. the first speech he gave... many of the statement he made before the first round and between the first round of the presidential election, where that as far as economic policy is concerned, he would follow the same policies. obviously, economic theory tells us that he should not, after the summer is over, turkey is

looking at a rather bleak picture from an economic perspective. come the fall... i think a course correction is needed. we haven't seen any signs in that direction so far stop we will know more once we know his references for minister of treasury and finance, as well as his preference for a central bank governor. if we see no change in that, then that lets us know that he sees these results as an endorsement of his pre—existing policy. his initial remarks in istanbul were not very unifying, but i think we need to wait and see what he will say in ankara in front of the presidential palace. ., . ankara in front of the presidential palace. ., , ., , palace. that will be an interesting s - eech. palace. that will be an interesting speech- thank _ palace. that will be an interesting speech. thank you _ palace. that will be an interesting speech. thank you very _ palace. that will be an interesting speech. thank you very much. -

palace. that will be an interesting i speech. thank you very much. hello, there are children around tonight. the rain is falling. you can see me getting increasingly wet here on the streets, but it doesn't seem to be putting people off. they are still waving their flags, still taking part in this party atmosphere. you can also see on your screen, live pictures of the celebration here in istanbul, we have heard... at times, you are probably struggling to hear me over the horns, the music, the drummers, they are going up and down the street, here. the supporters of president erdogan, we spoke to him earlier, in his home in istanbul. he made a speech which was relayed on the big screen to rapturous applause and chanting from the people who turned out in the rain. let's get a perspective... the us ambassador to

turkey between 2008 and 2010 is here. thank you forjoining us here on bbc news this evening. we have talked a lot about what erdogan needs to do domestically, but of course, turkey has an important geopolitical position in the world, doesn't it? sat; geopolitical position in the world, doesn't it? ., ., geopolitical position in the world, doesn't it?_ i - geopolitical position in the world, doesn't it?_ i am - geopolitical position in the world, doesn't it?_ i am so i doesn't it? say again? i am so sor ,i doesn't it? say again? i am so sorry. iwas— doesn't it? say again? i am so sorry, i was welcoming - doesn't it? say again? i am so sorry, i was welcoming you i doesn't it? say again? i am so sorry, i was welcoming you to | doesn't it? say again? i am so i sorry, i was welcoming you to bbc news and asking you to tell us about the geopolitical position of turkey. this is notjust an election that matters domestically, it matters which country you are in because of the position that president ativan, those relationships that he has forms to be malformed web—based east and west. it is forms to be malformed web-based east and west. , ., ., ., , :: and west. it is one of the top 20 economies _ and west. it is one of the top 20 economies in — and west. it is one of the top 20 economies in the _ and west. it is one of the top 20 economies in the world. - and west. it is one of the top 20 economies in the world. it i and west. it is one of the top 20 economies in the world. it has l and west. it is one of the top 20 economies in the world. it has aj economies in the world. it has a powerful conventional military

force, over seven or eight in all of asia. it projects power. it is a nato ally, but her complicated one. it is existentially threatened by iranians and russian expansion, which means that it finds itself usually on our side, but it also has close relations... especially in the tried area with a variety of unresolved issues. all of this complicates what should be what should be and could potentially be a good relationship with erdogan. hosp good relationship with erdogan. how did he find managing that relationship —— or how did you find managing that relationship when you ambassador? was it difficult to navigate? it ambassador? was it difficult to navi . ate? ., . ambassador? was it difficult to naviaate? ., , ., , ambassador? was it difficult to naviuate? ., . ambassador? was it difficult to naviaate? ., ., navigate? it was easier. erdogan was much more — navigate? it was easier. erdogan was much more accommodating, - navigate? it was easier. erdogan was much more accommodating, then. i much more accommodating, then. except for regarding the cyprus dispute and the ceasefire... and

across the board, we expect tilly mac had excellent relations. when i worked with erdogan in 2018 we had more difficulties, possibly over the russian missiles, the differences... these were resolvable problems, but they made things worse. president erdogan, and his general anti—western demeanour, was very irritating in washington and brussels. this will continue. what brussels. this will continue. what about the position _ brussels. this will continue. what about the position in _ brussels. this will continue. what about the position in nato? i brussels. this will continue. what about the position in nato? bringing the second biggest army, but standing on the way of sweden's joining. to think that is something that will continue? will erdogan see this as an endorsement in that position and continue along the

course? ., . course? erdogan... one the requirements _ course? erdogan... one the requirements for _ course? erdogan... one the requirements for finland i course? erdogan... one the l requirements for finland were course? erdogan... one the - requirements for finland were easy. severing ties with the pkk... sweden has, over the year, severing ties with the pkk... sweden has, overthe year, much severing ties with the pkk... sweden has, over the year, much deeper and broader ties with the pkk organisations, and it is going to take... the expectation is, when sweden passes a new anti—terrorism bill, that erdogan could be willing to do this. but, this will be an early test of whether he is willing to make any compromise to make this a stronghold in nato. he to make any compromise to make this a stronghold in nato._ a stronghold in nato. he has been foruain a stronghold in nato. he has been forging stronger— a stronghold in nato. he has been forging stronger relationships i a stronghold in nato. he has beenj forging stronger relationships with putin and xijinping, do you think this will continue, and if it does, will it make maintaining relationships with the us and the west more difficult? that relationships with the us and the west more difficult?— relationships with the us and the west more difficult? that is a yes and no question. _

west more difficult? that is a yes and no question. erdogan - west more difficult? that is a yes and no question. erdogan is i west more difficult? that is a yes and no question. erdogan is a i and no question. erdogan is a transactional guy. we in the west do not like transactional leaders. with erdogan, that is what we have. he has probably done more especially on trade and any other nato group. he has also made more hostile's lives difficult, cutting off reinforcements, enforcement from syria, the drone supply from ukraine, negotiating prisoner exchanges, on balance, he is a major positive force. at the same time, he is a problem with his relationship with putin. he is not going to break off his relations, i don't think washington will ask him to. thank ou ve washington will ask him to. thank you very much _ washington will ask him to. thank you very much for _ washington will ask him to. thank you very much for talking - washington will ask him to. thank you very much for talking to i washington will ask him to. thank you very much for talking to us. i you very much for talking to us. ambassadorfrom 2008 to

you very much for talking to us. ambassador from 2008 to do thousand and ten. the rain has stopped a little even as the parties continue on the street. we spoke —— adam... erdogan spoke earlier, and we also heard from kilicdaroglu speaking at the chp headquarters, a far more dejected speech. he spoke about fears and concerns for turkey over the next five years. we are of course waiting for the final result, the y s k, the official election board. they are slower than the news agencies to release their final results. we know that most of the ballots have been counted. erdogan did say that he has been receiving calls from other world leaders congratulating him on his victory, thatis congratulating him on his victory, that is all but academic now, it

appears. let's now talk to a journalist here in istanbul. it is nice to talk to you again, we met yesterday. at one president erdogan's final appearances before the polls open. then, he seemed quietly confident. do you think you have expected this victory —— and mark might this have surprised him? i think he was expecting it. maybe he thought that the gap would be more narrow. because, for leaders like that, he would have preferred a much, much bigger difference... his organisations had been extremely vigilant on the ballot boxes. they wouldn't... any votes going away. we just wanted to secure his face. —— he just wanted to secure his mates. as you can hear, what is

interesting, actually, as well, the voters were of all ages, here. often, we see political parties are attracting a certain demographic, but particularly here this evening, there appears to have been a real mix of ages, men and women. this outstanding representative of erdogan's appeal across turkey? it's not something we are seeing here in isolation here tonight?— isolation here tonight? usually, erdouan isolation here tonight? usually, erdogan gets — isolation here tonight? usually, erdogan gets more _ isolation here tonight? usually, erdogan gets more female i isolation here tonight? usually, i erdogan gets more female voters than male. he has a very strong support base, especially among conservative, pious women because she has, as have the populist leaders, monetised family values. a lot of conservative women, especially the pious sectors, they varied extremely importantly when you modify motherhood, just

being alive. at erdogan has played on the fear factor, saying that may be the secular segments in the opposition bloc could erode the gains that were made by the conservative women, who are especially wearing scarves. actually, the opposition, i believe, were a bit counting on the young voters, and the young conservative segments. it appears that they also remained loyal to erdogan. what remained loyalto erdogan. what about where _ remained loyalto erdogan. what about where president _ remained loyal to erdogan. what about where president erdogan goes nextin about where president erdogan goes next in terms of policy and how he chooses to leave the country? even on the figures we are seeing, 52, 50 3%, he has won comfortably. it is not an overwhelming margin, do you think you might take on board some

of the opposition policies, will he see this as a clear mandate for him continuing to run a country how he already has been? why— already has been? why are... the fact that despite _ already has been? why are... the fact that despite all _ already has been? why are... the fact that despite all the _ already has been? why are... the fact that despite all the pressure i fact that despite all the pressure on the supporters of the opposition, despite the fact that his party has become a state party, or a party state, using massively state means... despite that, when he sees these result, i think you would feel these result, i think you would feel the breath of the opposition on his neck. i do not believe that he would take a more considerate retort. the next step will be the municipal elections, especially, he is known to have said that whoever wins this istanbul wins turkey, therefore i think you will continue on this especially policies mission towards

the opposition. at the end of the day, when we see a neck and neck competition, it is in the big cities. he has big margins in rural areas, but in big cities, the gap is even narrower. therefore, that would suggest to me he will continue his inflexibility and intolerance towards supporters of the opposition. towards supporters of the opposition-— towards supporters of the ouosition. ., ~ ., ., opposition. thank you for 'oining us. interesting, i us. interesting, the municipal elections. this is an opposition city, it has an opposition mayor, as does the capital, ankara. some have said that there may perhaps should have been the candidate instead of kilicdaroglu. he was a quiet, softly spoken civil servant, perhaps the mayors of the cities have a bit more star power, they are more familiar with performing on a political

stage, they might have produced a stronger result. that is all academic now. with the final official results seem to be announced, still to be announced, we don't know when the announcement will come, everyone, ithink, including kilicdaroglu and erdogan have accepted that erdogan has won this presidential election, this presidential run—off, the first turkey has seen. as we wait for a further reaction, further analysis, further reaction, further analysis, further atmosphere on the streets here in istanbul, you can follow along the story with the bbc website. there is a live page where you can see what is happening across the country. we will be back here, and i will take a towel to my hair. and we will return to continue looking at this developing story. i am glad to say that it is dry on the studios here in london. we will let you find that towel and have a break from a very busy istanbul. let's

take a moment, take a pause, and remember why we are where we are. this is the presidential election in turkey. this was the incumbent, erdogan, facing a candidate put forward by a coalition of six opposition parties. that was a candidate in kilicdaroglu. there was a first round of voting on the 14th of may which involved a third candidate. if any one of those three men got beyond 50 plus 1% of the vote, they would have secured presidency erdogan got 49.52%. kilicdaroglu got 45%. that meant, for the first time in the presidential election history, there was a second round. the two frontrunners put forward to the ballot, around 60 or two million of the 85 million people in turkey, including 3.5 million people around the world. they could go to their

embassies to cast their ballots. people in countries bordering turkey could go to border posts to cast theirs. that is what has brought us to this state of play. we have not yet had the official announcement, as we had there, who has won this ballot, but it looks to all intents and purposes as though president erdogan has secured another five years in the post. we're also seeing, i am looking at the screen, leaders around the world sending their congratulations. emmanuel macron congratulated erdogan his re—election. egypt, president putin from russia, the leaders of the uae in qatar... an important moment in turkish politics because it plays such an important role in the world's stage, the 19th largest economy in a bowl. what is a feature look like in turkey? our senior international correspondent spent the day in the turkish capital, ankara, and has been looking at the

challenges which lie ahead. that is one way of getting votes. president ada ran handing out cash outside a polling station in istanbul. like a modern day sultan. the authoritarian leader wants a third term, and plenty of people are willing to give it to him. this woman told us that the erdogan era has brought development. translation: i've been a teacher for 25 years and when i look back. i see how far turkey has come. there have been many changes. many improvements. but better for who, in this deeply polarised society? despite a deluge, supporters waited patiently for the opposition leader, kemal kilicdaroglu, then charting his slogan.

"everything will be beautiful." he has run as mr nice guy but he's now vowing to send all refugees home if he wins. including three million syrians. it's a bid to woo nationalists. he needs every vote. the choice here is stark. two very different options. a seasoned autocrat or an untested democrat. turnout looked lower than last time around, but it reached 87%. the process is carried out very carefully, here. you have to arrive with a voting slip and with your id. your name is checked on the list and after you vote, you sign that you have done so. there are observers here too from all the political parties. but president erdogan has gone into this contest with key advantages, not least almost total