hello, i'm lewis vaughanjones. you're watching the context on bbc news. all ukrainian tanks and all ukrainian soldiers will gather in one place, and then a general will come out with a starting gun and things will begin to happen. we are saying that look, whatever happens is never announced. ukrainian forces really try to stretch the russians in as many directions as possible, because when you're defending a 600 mile long front line, it is not possible to cover it all at once. vladimir putin has said about the situation on the battlefield, about reports of a ukrainian counteroffensive — absolutely nothing. keep calm and carry on, basically is mr putin's style. welcome to the programme.

ukrainian military sources have told the bbc their forces are carrying out a series of �*small scale�* armoured attacks against russian occupiers and "shifting to offensive actions" in some areas along the front line. we'll take a look at claims from moscow that a full ukrainian counter offensive has begun. joining me on my panel tonight for the next hour, is the writer and broaddcaster chris morris — and stephanie bolzen, washington correspondent for the german newspaper die welt. we will say hello to both in just a moment. also tonight, prime minister rishi sunak announces that two new barges have been bought to house up to 1,000 migrants. he says his plan to stop small boats crossing the channel is working. we'll ask a migration expert if she agrees. and more peoplejoin the race to be the next us president. former vice president mike pence files his papers to run, putting him in direct competition with his former boss, donald trump.

but first — the war in ukraine. looks like a significant escalation in the fighting. is this the start of a counter offensive? we'll ask our experts in a moment. first we're going to look at what we know and don't know. the ukrainian army has released these images. they say — their forces attacking russian troops in the area of bakhmut. the bbc hasn't verified the date of these images. on the other side, russia released this video. saying it's repelling armoured attacks. inflicting heavy losses on ukraine. there's no independent confirmation. ukraine says russia is not to be trusted as a source of information. back to ukraine. they put out this video. it shows their soldiers asking for silence about their military plans. so ukraine won't say whether this is the start

of their long—awaited, full—scale counter—offensive. on to social media now. reports there say ukrainian forces have made several probing attacks, along the south and eastern front line. let's look at where. around bakhmut. and the western part of the zaporizhzhia region. russian military bloggers have spoken of ukrainian advances west of vuhledar. joining us to discuss, is evelyn farkas, former us deputy assistant secretary of defense for russia and ukraine and dr patrick bury, senior lecturer in security at the university of bath and former nato analyst. welcome everyone. thank you for being with us. a potentially very significant day. i'd like to start evelyn, with you. do you think this is a day we will be remembering is the start of the counter offensive, or is itjust a day of small attacks? i or is itjust a day of small attacks?— or is itjust a day of small attacks? ~ , ., ., , , .,

attacks? i think it is hard, as you said in the _ attacks? i think it is hard, as you said in the beginning, _ attacks? i think it is hard, as you said in the beginning, to - attacks? i think it is hard, as you said in the beginning, to clearly. said in the beginning, to clearly delineate the day before the counter offensive and the day it starts. because all of the attacks, i believe, that happened, launched in last week and a week before on logistical supply lines, trains that have been derailed inside russian territory, behind the lines. i think they were all aimed at shaping and creating the conditions for a counter offensive, which means they are part of the counter offensive. yes, we may now be seeing an intensification, but i think the counter offensive probably already started. , ., . ~ counter offensive probably already started. , . . ~ ., started. interesting. patrick, what is our started. interesting. patrick, what is your reading? — started. interesting. patrick, what is your reading? i _ started. interesting. patrick, what is your reading? ithink— started. interesting. patrick, what is your reading? i think emma - started. interesting. patrick, what is your reading? i think emma is l is your reading? i think emma is sot-on is your reading? i think emma is spot-on really- _ is your reading? i think emma is spot-on really. phase _ is your reading? i think emma is spot-on really. phase one - is your reading? i think emma is spot-on really. phase one was l is your reading? i think emma is l spot-on really. phase one was the spot—on really. phase one was the shipping _ spot—on really. phase one was the shipping operations of setting the conditions as best possible for the next phase, and i think we are transitioning into phase two, which is reconnaissance and probing. you would _ is reconnaissance and probing. you would expect them to do that across the line _ would expect them to do that across the line stop ukraine has generally a smaller_ the line stop ukraine has generally a smaller army against a bigger force. _ a smaller army against a bigger

force. so— a smaller army against a bigger force. so it _ a smaller army against a bigger force, so it needs to use its own resources — force, so it needs to use its own resources and stretch the russians as much— resources and stretch the russians as much as — resources and stretch the russians as much as possible. that is what they are — as much as possible. that is what they are doing is the moment by attacking — they are doing is the moment by attacking relatively small—scale, in different— attacking relatively small—scale, in different locations. it is interesting to see the information space _ interesting to see the information space battle that is going on. ukraine — space battle that is going on. ukraine being quiet about it, which actually— ukraine being quiet about it, which actually allowed russia to maybe get the edge _ actually allowed russia to maybe get the edge and say it had repelled a large—scale attack. it doesn't seem like that— large—scale attack. it doesn't seem like that to — large—scale attack. it doesn't seem like that to me anyway, it looks like that to me anyway, it looks like it _ like that to me anyway, it looks like it was— like that to me anyway, it looks like it was at company level or a bit bigger— like it was at company level or a bit bigger maybe. it was initially, potentially rebels, but they have then advanced in the area down to lower— then advanced in the area down to lower donetsk. they have actually countered — lower donetsk. they have actually countered that village, so it is going — countered that village, so it is going very well for the ukrainians in that— going very well for the ukrainians in that area so far going very well for the ukrainians in that area so fa— in that area so far evelyn, come back to you- _ in that area so far evelyn, come back to you. what _ in that area so far evelyn, come back to you. what should - in that area so far evelyn, come back to you. what should we . in that area so far evelyn, come back to you. what should we be j back to you. what should we be looking out for in the next couple of weeks, or what are you looking out for full of weeks, or what are you looking out forfull signs of of weeks, or what are you looking out for full signs of success? well, obvious signs _ out for full signs of success? well, obvious signs of _ out for full signs of success? well, obvious signs of success _ out for full signs of success? well, obvious signs of success would - out for full signs of success? -ii obvious signs of success would be advancing. would be surprise attacks

behind enemy lines. all of this probing, as your other guest rightly said, to get the russians to spread out, and also to throw them off balance and to try to figure out where they might be weaker. where there might be an opportunity for there might be an opportunity for the ukrainian forces. but i think it is going to be interesting to see when the ukrainians decide to deploy the armoured vehicles that we have given them. that will be, of course, a decisive moment. but i think it is anyone's guess really. they want to introduce manoeuvre warfare onto the battlefield, i believe. they don't want to be caught in this kind of static fighting that they have been enduring, frankly, since 2014. interesting. patrick, iwant enduring, frankly, since 2014. interesting. patrick, i want to build on that point in terms of what has been used out there. we were told to wait for any counter offensive depended on things like the ground tightening up to move up more easily. but they won't going to

wait for the jets more easily. but they won't going to wait for thejets in more easily. but they won't going to wait for the jets in the more easily. but they won't going to wait for thejets in the sky and that full dominance in the air. so, what is the status, and what will be used now? it what is the status, and what will be used now? ., ., what is the status, and what will be used now? ~' what is the status, and what will be used now? ,, ., ., , used now? it looks like at least some of the — used now? it looks like at least some of the tanks, _ used now? it looks like at least some of the tanks, for - used now? it looks like at least| some of the tanks, for example used now? it looks like at least i some of the tanks, for example dj used now? it looks like at least - some of the tanks, for example dj at next turn, _ some of the tanks, for example dj at next turn, has orally been used in some _ next turn, has orally been used in some of— next turn, has orally been used in some of the — next turn, has orally been used in some of the attacks, a lighter tank than the _ some of the attacks, a lighter tank than the leopard, so these tanks have _ than the leopard, so these tanks have been— than the leopard, so these tanks have been used. —— has already been used _ have been used. —— has already been used we _ have been used. —— has already been used. we wouldn't commit these ground _ used. we wouldn't commit these ground forces but for combined arms. they have _ ground forces but for combined arms. they have the artillery, the drones. they have the artillery, the drones. they wouldn't commit to an attack like this— they wouldn't commit to an attack like this without air support. they don't _ like this without air support. they don't even — like this without air support. they don't even really have air parity. potentially, this attack does become successful— potentially, this attack does become successful somewhere. the first thing _ successful somewhere. the first thing is — successful somewhere. the first thing is to — successful somewhere. the first thing is to open a breach, and then to pour— thing is to open a breach, and then to pour through heavy armour that can exploit — to pour through heavy armour that can exploit. they are trying to create — can exploit. they are trying to create chaos for the russians behind them _ create chaos for the russians behind them so. _ create chaos for the russians behind them. so, you are basically forcing them _ them. so, you are basically forcing them to— them. so, you are basically forcing them to decide what to do. by the time they— them to decide what to do. by the time they do that, you have already moved _ time they do that, you have already moved on. — time they do that, you have already moved on, and they are reacting on

bad information. that is what you are trying — bad information. that is what you are trying to do. and if they can do that, _ are trying to do. and if they can do that, if— are trying to do. and if they can do that, ifthat— are trying to do. and if they can do that, if that breakthrough happen somewhere, i am fairly confident it will actually happen somewhere. i think— will actually happen somewhere. i think the — will actually happen somewhere. i think the ukrainians have the edge in terms _ think the ukrainians have the edge in terms of— think the ukrainians have the edge in terms of training and morale, and that can _ in terms of training and morale, and that can prove decisive. that would open _ that can prove decisive. that would open the _ that can prove decisive. that would open the way, you know, for the next phase, _ open the way, you know, for the next phase, and _ open the way, you know, for the next phase, and you just basically keep trying _ phase, and you just basically keep trying to— phase, and you just basically keep trying to roll with the momentum, to keep it _ trying to roll with the momentum, to keep it going through these different phases. the logistics is then incredibly important to maintaining that momentum. interesting. i would like to spend a minute on the information war. chris, let's come to you. you spend a lot of yourjournalistic career trying to work out exactly what is true and what isn't. what have you made about the claim and counterclaim today? i made about the claim and counterclaim today? made about the claim and counterclaim toda ? ~ ., counterclaim today? i think that we don't know a _ counterclaim today? i think that we don't know a lot, _ counterclaim today? i think that we don't know a lot, but _ counterclaim today? i think that we don't know a lot, but one _ counterclaim today? i think that we don't know a lot, but one thing - counterclaim today? i think that we don't know a lot, but one thing we | don't know a lot, but one thing we can he _ don't know a lot, but one thing we can be absolutely— don't know a lot, but one thing we can be absolutely sure _ don't know a lot, but one thing we can be absolutely sure of - don't know a lot, but one thing we can be absolutely sure of is - don't know a lot, but one thing we can be absolutely sure of is that. can be absolutely sure of is that they will— can be absolutely sure of is that they will he _ can be absolutely sure of is that they will be vast _ can be absolutely sure of is that they will be vast amounts - can be absolutely sure of is that they will be vast amounts of- can be absolutely sure of is that| they will be vast amounts of this information— they will be vast amounts of this information on— they will be vast amounts of this information on all— they will be vast amounts of this information on all sides - they will be vast amounts of this information on all sides in - they will be vast amounts of this information on all sides in the i information on all sides in the coming — information on all sides in the coming weeks _ information on all sides in the coming weeks. the _ information on all sides in the coming weeks. the fog - information on all sides in the coming weeks. the fog of- information on all sides in the i coming weeks. the fog of war, if information on all sides in the - coming weeks. the fog of war, if you like. coming weeks. the fog of war, if you like so. _ coming weeks. the fog of war, if you like so. we — coming weeks. the fog of war, if you like. so, we have _ coming weeks. the fog of war, if you like. so, we have to— coming weeks. the fog of war, if you like. so, we have to be _ coming weeks. the fog of war, if you like. so, we have to be very- coming weeks. the fog of war, if you like. so, we have to be very careful. like. so, we have to be very careful about _ like. so, we have to be very careful

about what — like. so, we have to be very careful about what we _ like. so, we have to be very careful about what we can _ like. so, we have to be very careful about what we can actually - like. so, we have to be very careful about what we can actually verify. i about what we can actually verify. one interesting _ about what we can actually verify. one interesting thing _ about what we can actually verify. one interesting thing that - about what we can actually verify. one interesting thing that we i about what we can actually verify. one interesting thing that we can| about what we can actually verify. i one interesting thing that we can be fairly sure _ one interesting thing that we can be fairly sure about _ one interesting thing that we can be fairly sure about is _ one interesting thing that we can be fairly sure about is that _ one interesting thing that we can be fairly sure about is that russian i fairly sure about is that russian defences— fairly sure about is that russian defences should _ fairly sure about is that russian defences should be _ fairly sure about is that russian defences should be better- fairly sure about is that russian i defences should be better prepared than they— defences should be better prepared than they were _ defences should be better prepared than they were east _ defences should be better prepared than they were east of _ defences should be better prepared than they were east of kharkiv- defences should be better prepared than they were east of kharkiv for. than they were east of kharkiv for example — than they were east of kharkiv for example last _ than they were east of kharkiv for example last september, - than they were east of kharkiv for example last september, when . than they were east of kharkiv for- example last september, when ukraine recaptured _ example last september, when ukraine recaptured a _ example last september, when ukraine recaptured a lot — example last september, when ukraine recaptured a lot of _ example last september, when ukraine recaptured a lot of occupied _ recaptured a lot of occupied territory _ recaptured a lot of occupied territory very _ recaptured a lot of occupied territory very quickly. - recaptured a lot of occupied territory very quickly. but . recaptured a lot of occupied . territory very quickly. but how recaptured a lot of occupied - territory very quickly. but how much better— territory very quickly. but how much better prepared _ territory very quickly. but how much better prepared are _ territory very quickly. but how much better prepared are the _ territory very quickly. but how much better prepared are the russians? l better prepared are the russians? what _ better prepared are the russians? what is _ better prepared are the russians? what is russian _ better prepared are the russians? what is russian morale _ better prepared are the russians? what is russian morale like? i better prepared are the russians? what is russian morale like? on l better prepared are the russians? . what is russian morale like? on the other— what is russian morale like? on the other side, _ what is russian morale like? on the other side, our— what is russian morale like? on the other side, our new— what is russian morale like? on the other side, our new ukrainian - what is russian morale like? on the other side, our new ukrainian units. other side, our new ukrainian units really— other side, our new ukrainian units really properly— other side, our new ukrainian units really properly equipped _ other side, our new ukrainian units really properly equipped now - other side, our new ukrainian units really properly equipped now to i other side, our new ukrainian unitsl really properly equipped now to use the new— really properly equipped now to use the new equipment _ really properly equipped now to use the new equipment they— really properly equipped now to use the new equipment they have - really properly equipped now to use i the new equipment they have gained? ithink— the new equipment they have gained? i think all— the new equipment they have gained? i think all of— the new equipment they have gained? i think all of these _ the new equipment they have gained? i think all of these are _ the new equipment they have gained? i think all of these are questions i i think all of these are questions to which— i think all of these are questions to which we _ i think all of these are questions to which we are _ i think all of these are questions to which we are only— i think all of these are questions to which we are only really- i think all of these are questionsj to which we are only really going i think all of these are questions i to which we are only really going to find out _ to which we are only really going to find out the — to which we are only really going to find out the answer _ to which we are only really going to find out the answer in _ to which we are only really going to find out the answer in the - to which we are only really going to find out the answer in the next i to which we are only really going to find out the answer in the next few| find out the answer in the next few weeks _ find out the answer in the next few weeks but— find out the answer in the next few weeks. but while _ find out the answer in the next few weeks. but while we _ find out the answer in the next few weeks. but while we pour- find out the answer in the next few weeks. but while we pour over- find out the answer in the next few weeks. but while we pour over the| weeks. but while we pour over the details. _ weeks. but while we pour over the details. i_ weeks. but while we pour over the details, ithink— weeks. but while we pour over the details, i think it _ weeks. but while we pour over the details, i think it is _ weeks. but while we pour over the details, i think it is also _ weeks. but while we pour over the details, i think it is also really- details, i think it is also really important _ details, i think it is also really important to _ details, i think it is also really important to think _ details, i think it is also really important to think of - details, i think it is also really important to think of the i details, i think it is also really important to think of the big i important to think of the big picture _ important to think of the big picture the _ important to think of the big picture. the big _ important to think of the big picture. the big picture i important to think of the big picture. the big picture is i important to think of the big i picture. the big picture is that this was, _ picture. the big picture is that this was, and _ picture. the big picture is that this was, and still— picture. the big picture is that this was, and still is— picture. the big picture is that this was, and still is a - picture. the big picture is that this was, and still is a military invasion— this was, and still is a military invasion of— this was, and still is a military invasion of a _ this was, and still is a military invasion of a sovereign - this was, and still is a military. invasion of a sovereign country, this was, and still is a military- invasion of a sovereign country, in europe, _ invasion of a sovereign country, in europe, in— invasion of a sovereign country, in europe inthe— invasion of a sovereign country, in europe, in the zist—century. i invasion of a sovereign country, in europe, in the zist—century. the l europe, in the zist—century. the worst— europe, in the zist—century. the worst war— europe, in the zist—century. the worst war on _ europe, in the zist—century. the worst war on our— europe, in the zist—century. the worst war on our continent i europe, in the zist—century. the worst war on our continent in i europe, in the 215t—century.thej worst war on our continent in 80 years _ worst war on our continent in 80 years and — worst war on our continent in 80 years and that _ worst war on our continent in 80 years. and that is _ worst war on our continent in 80 years. and that is why— worst war on our continent in 80 years. and that is why this i worst war on our continent in 80 j years. and that is why this really matters — years. and that is why this really matters to— years. and that is why this really matters to all— years. and that is why this really matters to all of— years. and that is why this really matters to all of us. _ years. and that is why this really matters to all of us.— years. and that is why this really matters to all of us. going to that wider context _ matters to all of us. going to that wider context there. _ matters to all of us. going to that wider context there. i _ matters to all of us. going to that wider context there. i would i matters to all of us. going to that wider context there. i would like l matters to all of us. going to that. wider context there. i would like to come to you in washington, dc there.

because the support of the us is absolutely vital. and there were, not concerns but mutterings, about the longer the delay to any counter offensive went on, the more at risk the whole operation becomes, because potentially, a falling away of the us support if the presidential election goes a certain way. talk to is about that. election goes a certain way. talk to is about that-— is about that. indeed. i'm here in washington. _ is about that. indeed. i'm here in washington, the _ is about that. indeed. i'm here in washington, the counter - is about that. indeed. i'm here in| washington, the counter offensive is about that. indeed. i'm here in i washington, the counter offensive in ukraine is watched very closely here. and as you say, the administration and also very much in congress, they want to see ukraine succeed, because that would give the argument to deliver more weapons to ukraine, to strengthen their military forces. and because we are already starting the election campaign for 2024, and on the republican side, especially donald

trump and also to some degree run dissenters, they have indicated they would not support ukraine the way joe biden does. so, it is crucial to show the counteroffensive has been a success —— and also desantis. riff success -- and also desantis. of course, success —— and also desantis. of course, putting a timescale on something like this is also almost impossible, just like vladimir putin hoping this would be done in days or weeks at the beginning. what is your overall picture now and ask for this conflict? i overall picture now and ask for this conflict? ~ ., ,, ., �* , conflict? i think that suzanne's oint is conflict? i think that suzanne's point is really _ conflict? i think that suzanne's point is really spot _ conflict? i think that suzanne's point is really spot on. - conflict? i think that suzanne's point is really spot on. the i point is really spot on. the ukrainians need to show momentum, and they need to show, continue to show they are the winners. strategically, we know that russia is not going to win, but tactically and operationally, the ukrainians need to continue to advance and they need to continue to advance and they need to continue to advance and they need to show they are winners. why are? because frankly, the money that the congress has authorised and appropriated for ukraine's defence from the united states will run out.

it is estimated to run out in the fall. i haven't checked in at that time frame. i may be up a little bit. of course, a lot depends on what we are providing them, because it would use the money to buy more expensive things, the money will run out sooner. but there is a deadline in terms of the next decision that needs to be made by congress to help ukraine. i think that is also something that is motivating the ukrainians, besides, of course, as you mentioned, the need to have the right terrain and right equipment. lets go back to this idea that with the right equipment, but the risk of doing this without airpower, what is your assessment of how successful, how comprehensive this counter offensive can actually be? it is more risky _ offensive can actually be? it is more risky without _ offensive can actually be? it is more risky without airpower. you're going _ more risky without airpower. you're going to _ more risky without airpower. you're going to take more casualties. i have _ going to take more casualties. i have been— going to take more casualties. i have been an infantry officer and calling _ have been an infantry officer and calling in— have been an infantry officer and calling in air power is a massive difference _ calling in air power is a massive difference, because of the accuracy and precision of munition onto the exact— and precision of munition onto the exact location that you can use wood

like a _ exact location that you can use wood like a laser _ exact location that you can use wood like a laser pointer to guide it down — like a laser pointer to guide it down to— like a laser pointer to guide it down to the pilots. you can imagine the kind _ down to the pilots. you can imagine the kind of— down to the pilots. you can imagine the kind of momentum, that blitzkrieg is based on airpower. it is about— blitzkrieg is based on airpower. it is about getting a fast moving aircraft — is about getting a fast moving aircraft to drop two targets. without _ aircraft to drop two targets. without that, everything is a bit slower— without that, everything is a bit slower and a bit more risky. i'm confident— slower and a bit more risky. i'm confident that somewhere, the ukrainians will punch through. i don't _ ukrainians will punch through. i don't know the extent of once they punch _ don't know the extent of once they punch through the line what it'll be like. punch through the line what it'll be like but— punch through the line what it'll be like but i— punch through the line what it'll be like. but i think what we are looking _ like. but i think what we are looking at is a summer where basically— looking at is a summer where basically you will have what will be an early— basically you will have what will be an early summer offensive, and i would _ an early summer offensive, and i would expect hopefully it goes well, and a _ would expect hopefully it goes well, and a late _ would expect hopefully it goes well, and a late summer offensive, and that will— and a late summer offensive, and that will have delivered potentially to mac _ that will have delivered potentially to mac big enough blows which may then shake the decision—making in then shake the decision—making in the capitals which will decide the outcome — the capitals which will decide the outcome of this. still though, i think— outcome of this. still though, i think it — outcome of this. still though, i think it will not be a knockout by the summer, but it might start to create _ the summer, but it might start to create the — the summer, but it might start to create the conditions for negotiation, and it may not. i 'ust want to pickfi negotiation, and it may not. i 'ust want to pick upi negotiation, and it may not. i 'ust want to pick up on i negotiation, and it may not. i 'ust want to pick up on that i negotiation, and it may not. inst want to pick up on that phrase that used up punch through. just talk to is a bit about what you mean that.

is that a significant breach of line, separating large geographic areas that russia controls? what do you mean? areas that russia controls? what do ou mean? ~ ., ,., areas that russia controls? what do ou mean? ~ ., y., ., , ., ., you mean? what you are trying to do is some sort — you mean? what you are trying to do is some sort of— you mean? what you are trying to do is some sort of encirclement. - you mean? what you are trying to do is some sort of encirclement. i'm i is some sort of encirclement. i'm talking _ is some sort of encirclement. i'm talking about punching through a defensive line and getting around behind _ defensive line and getting around behind them. and encircle them and force them _ behind them. and encircle them and force them to react, and maybe even to surrender~ — force them to react, and maybe even to surrender. a punch through would have been_ to surrender. a punch through would have been like what we saw in kharkiv— have been like what we saw in kharkiv in _ have been like what we saw in kharkiv in september last year. where — kharkiv in september last year. where it — kharkiv in september last year. where it was quite easy for the ukrainians, once they were able to come _ ukrainians, once they were able to come up _ ukrainians, once they were able to come up with the help of allied intelligence support, identify weak, tired out— intelligence support, identify weak, tired out units and thenjust drive motorised — tired out units and thenjust drive motorised brigade through them. and they had _ motorised brigade through them. and they had a _ motorised brigade through them. and they had a stunning success. whether it will— they had a stunning success. whether it will be _ they had a stunning success. whether it will be as _ they had a stunning success. whether it will be as big as that i don't know. — it will be as big as that i don't know. but— it will be as big as that i don't know, but that is what you are trying — know, but that is what you are trying to — know, but that is what you are trying to achieve. | know, but that is what you are trying to achieve.— know, but that is what you are trying to achieve. i want to give the last what — trying to achieve. i want to give the last what do _ trying to achieve. i want to give the last what do you _ trying to achieve. i want to give the last what do you ever- trying to achieve. i want to give | the last what do you ever know, because patrick brought up the idea of enough gains to bring up negotiations or talks or something. how do you envisage that? what is the kind of endgame? how does the

diplomatic solution, about to? right, | diplomatic solution, about to? right, i think patrick is right. i did very end of this, obviously if there is going to be some kind of negotiation and some kind of peace agreement, the way that it comes about is either the russians are routed to, meaning their military is on the run, and the general say, mr president, we can't do this any more. and then the russian government is forced to go to the negotiating table. or alternatively, the ukrainians decides that they have achieved enough, and they are too tired. i don't think that they will be routed. they will not give up, but there may come a point where they decide, ok, we had gotten enough on the battlefield, let's see what we can get at the negotiating table. . ~ what we can get at the negotiating table. ., ,, , ., ., ., what we can get at the negotiating table. ., ,, y., ., ., , table. 0k, thank you all a very much. around the world and across the uk. this is bbc news.

let's look at some of the other stories making headlines today. an inquest has heard that a rip tide may have led to a girl and a teenage boy drowning off bournemouth beach last wednesday. dorset police say they are keeping an open mind about the circumstances around the deaths of 17—year—old joe abbess, and 12—year—old sunnah khan, and are considering the potential effects of the weather conditions and the state of the water. the tv presenter holly willoughby has returned to the itv show this morning after her holiday break — saying it feels very strange without phillip schofield. he left the show after saying he had lied about an affair with a member of the show�*s production team. holly said she felt �*shaken, troubled, let—down, and full of questions.�* research suggests that mortgages have continued to rise in cost — with the average two—year fixed rate deal now £35 more expensive than a few weeks ago. inflation has remained higher than predicted, and many lenders are expecting another increase in the bank of england�*s interest rate.

i would just pause there to let our viewers around the world to rejoin us. here in the uk — the issue of migration. the prime minister rishi sunak sayst two more barges have been bought the prime minister rishi sunak says two more barges have been bought to house up to 1000 migrants. he says the number of people crossing the channel on small boats is down by a fifth since the same time last year. here is our political editor, chris mason. , , .,~ ., ., mason. rishi sunak went out into the en . lish mason. rishi sunak went out into the english channel _ mason. rishi sunak went out into the english channel this _ mason. rishi sunak went out into the english channel this morning - mason. rishi sunak went out into the english channel this morning to i mason. rishi sunak went out into the english channel this morning to talk. english channel this morning to talk to those responsible for rescuing those in small, flimsy inflatable boats, trying to make it to the uk. when you talk to the teams here who are the ones— when you talk to the teams here who are the ones who are out on the front— are the ones who are out on the front line. — are the ones who are out on the front line, picking up toddlers, who are suffering from hypothermia. if you're _ are suffering from hypothermia. if you're in— are suffering from hypothermia. if you're in a — are suffering from hypothermia. if you're in a makeshift dinghy, which is not _ you're in a makeshift dinghy, which is not seaworthy, where it is freezing, _ is not seaworthy, where it is freezing, i'm sorry, but that is completely and utterly wrong. the

inner tube of— completely and utterly wrong. iie: inner tube of a completely and utterly wrong. "iie: inner tube of a motor completely and utterly wrong. i““i9 inner tube of a motor bike completely and utterly wrong. ii9 inner tube of a motor bike tyre, a makeshift life jacket for a child. fuel cans and a foot pump. addressing reporters in dover, the prime minister claimed the government is making progress with what has been a problem getting bigger and bigger. what has been a problem getting biggerand bigger. but what has been a problem getting bigger and bigger. but the progress is modest. is it credible promise to stop them, literally no more boats? for the first time, numbers are down — for the first time, numbers are down this _ for the first time, numbers are down. this year, january to may, the numbers— down. this year, january to may, the numbers crossing are down by 20%, down _ numbers crossing are down by 20%, down by _ numbers crossing are down by 20%, down by a _ numbers crossing are down by 20%, down by a fifth. we haven't seen that before, and it is specific to the uk — that before, and it is specific to the uk if— that before, and it is specific to the uk. if you look at what is happening in europe, the number so far this _ happening in europe, the number so far this year— happening in europe, the number so far this year are happening in europe, the number so farthis yearare up. happening in europe, the number so far this year are up. but happening in europe, the number so far this year are up.— far this year are up. but the prime minister's promised _ far this year are up. but the prime minister's promised to _ far this year are up. but the prime minister's promised to clear i far this year are up. but the prime minister's promised to clear the i minister's promised to clear the backlog of long—standing asylum cases by the end of this year will only happen if the government manages to quadruple the rates of processing them. the total asylum backlog has gotten bigger over the last year. as part of their plan to

try to cut at least a bit the dust hotel bills for asylum seekers, this barge will be in dorset in the next few weeks. two more barges will soon how is another 1000 people, but we don't know where they will be yet. i don't know where they will be yet. i think everybody wants to make sure we stop _ think everybody wants to make sure we stop the boats, and we don't want people _ we stop the boats, and we don't want people making that dangerous journey — people making that dangerous journey. all we have really had from the government though is an announcement of a policy that doesn't — announcement of a policy that doesn't work, and the re—announcement of the same policy, essentiallx _ re-announcement of the same policy, essentiall . ., , ., ., re-announcement of the same policy, essentiall . ., ., . , essentially. people on a cliff in dover see _ essentially. people on a cliff in dover see the _ essentially. people on a cliff in dover see the issue _ essentially. people on a cliff in dover see the issue of - essentially. people on a cliff in i dover see the issue of migration close—up. a few have been roaming around the estate and walked into peoples houses. i leave my front door open when i at home. i don't any more. the prime minister says he wants to stop the boats, do you think you will manage? probably not. the net think you will manage? probably not. they get stepped _ think you will manage? probably not. they get stopped and _ think you will manage? probably not. they get stopped and taken - think you will manage? probably not. they get stopped and taken rover, i they get stopped and taken rover, two hotels, and there are people here in_ two hotels, and there are people here in the — two hotels, and there are people here in the breadline that don't have _ here in the breadline that don't have money to eat.— here in the breadline that don't have money to eat. come up all around the _ have money to eat. come up all around the cliffs _ have money to eat. come up all around the cliffs here _ have money to eat. come up all around the cliffs here and -

have money to eat. come up all around the cliffs here and come| have money to eat. come up all. around the cliffs here and come up from _ around the cliffs here and come up from the _ around the cliffs here and come up from the beach. _ around the cliffs here and come up from the beach.— around the cliffs here and come up from the beach. what is so striking about this hugely _ from the beach. what is so striking about this hugely complex - from the beach. what is so striking about this hugely complex issue i from the beach. what is so striking about this hugely complex issue is| about this hugely complex issue is how prominent the prime minister has made it in shaping perceptions of his own competence. he wants to stop the boats, notjust reduce their number, and that is very, very difficult. then there is the issue of the backlog of asylum seekers, the cost of their accommodation, the difficulty of returning them home or elsewhere. steady progress still leaves a huge problem for this government and any successor. chris mason, bbc news in dover. lets government and any successor. chris mason, bbc news in dover.- mason, bbc news in dover. lets get the orts mason, bbc news in dover. lets get the ports of— mason, bbc news in dover. lets get the ports of our— mason, bbc news in dover. lets get the ports of our panel. _ mason, bbc news in dover. lets get the ports of our panel. chris, - mason, bbc news in dover. lets get the ports of our panel. chris, we'll. the ports of our panel. chris, we'll start with you. what you make of rishi sunak�*s plan? i start with you. what you make of rishi sunak's plan?— rishi sunak's plan? i think it is a bit too soon _ rishi sunak's plan? i think it is a bit too soon to _ rishi sunak's plan? i think it is a bit too soon to say _ rishi sunak's plan? i think it is a bit too soon to say it _ rishi sunak's plan? i think it is a bit too soon to say it is - rishi sunak's plan? i think it is a bit too soon to say it is working. | bit too soon to say it is working. the numbers are down from last year, for the first few months of the year, but that is partly because the weather hasn't been as good. you have to wait until the summer really, the peak crossing season when the seas are usually warmer and calmer. to see what happens to the

numbers there. i think, the wider point is that millions of people are on the move around the world, many of them are heading towards europe. the id you can put some kind of protective blankets around written specifically, even though it is an island, seems to be a bit far—fetched to me. he asserted he is certainly staking a lot in it, but i think he also has a problem with his legislation. it is controversial. the illegal migration bill. critics say, if ever netted in full could break international law. you may remember last month it was heavily criticised in the house of lords by the archbishop of canterbury, who says that britain would be failing in its moral responsibility. this is going to remain every divisive issue, but also a big one on both sides of the divide in the run—up to next election. but mack stephanie, what are your thoughts on the issue? i find one of a very interesting, which _ i find one of a very interesting, which was _ i find one of a very interesting, which was that there had been 40% more _ which was that there had been 40% more boats— which was that there had been 40% more boats intercepted, thanks to

the french— more boats intercepted, thanks to the french coastguard, and this comes— the french coastguard, and this comes now that rishi sunak has a much _ comes now that rishi sunak has a much better relationship with the french— much better relationship with the french president, emmanuel macron. that also_ french president, emmanuel macron. that also comes on the back of decisions — that also comes on the back of decisions in the context of brexit, with the _ decisions in the context of brexit, with the windsor framework and solutions— with the windsor framework and solutions being found on the very controversial issue of northern ireiahd — controversial issue of northern ireiahd i— controversial issue of northern ireland. i think it interesting that the cooperation with france is getting — the cooperation with france is getting better, and it shows that britain _ getting better, and it shows that britain needs a better relationship with european countries.— with european countries. chris, let's come _ with european countries. chris, let's come to — with european countries. chris, let's come to the _ with european countries. chris, let's come to the politics - with european countries. chris, let's come to the politics of- with european countries. chris, let's come to the politics of it. | let's come to the politics of it. the forts there that chris mason ended his report on. the choice of rishi sunak to make this such a central piece of his leadership. when, i think the polls over the years seem to suggest it is less of an issue than it once was. it is years seem to suggest it is less of an issue than it once was.- an issue than it once was. it is an interesting _ an issue than it once was. it is an interesting one, _ an issue than it once was. it is an interesting one, and _ an issue than it once was. it is an interesting one, and particularly, | interesting one, and particularly, as prince besides, he is saying stop the boats, not reduce the number of votes, like they won't be any more boats, which doesn't seem to me to

be a possibility. it reminds me of the long stated conservative ambition to reduce net migration to below 100,000. ambition to reduce net migration to below100,000. it ambition to reduce net migration to below 100,000. it has never happened. the thing about illegal migration, i spent a lot of time in 2015 in the greek islands and in italy. reporting on the arrival of hundreds of thousands of refugees by c onto the shores of southern europe. 0ne c onto the shores of southern europe. one thing that came up time and time again, was that when one which closed down, another one somewhere else opened up. it is a bit like putting your fingers somewhere else opened up. it is a bit like putting yourfingers in somewhere else opened up. it is a bit like putting your fingers in the dam to try to stop the water. there is a massive blow people and i think we to have a much more holistic approach in how we deal with it. let's go to the us, where you are. because that southern border is an absolutely huge issue. yes. because that southern border is an absolutely huge issue.— absolutely huge issue. yes, it is. it will be once _ absolutely huge issue. yes, it is. it will be once more _ absolutely huge issue. yes, it is. it will be once more one - absolutely huge issue. yes, it is. it will be once more one of - absolutely huge issue. yes, it is. it will be once more one of the l absolutely huge issue. yes, it is. i it will be once more one of the main topics _ it will be once more one of the main topics of— it will be once more one of the main topics of the — it will be once more one of the main topics of the election campaign, and the republicans claiming thatjoe biden— the republicans claiming thatjoe biden has opened the border, which is actually— biden has opened the border, which is actually not true. if you look at

the legislation which now came out recently. _ the legislation which now came out recently, because these covid measures runout on the 11th of may, which _ measures runout on the 11th of may, which meant the border patrol couldn't— which meant the border patrol couldn't return people and rejects them _ couldn't return people and rejects them at _ couldn't return people and rejects them at the border because of public health— them at the border because of public health issues and legislation. but your biden has introduced a much starker— your biden has introduced a much starker rule, and it is quite similar— starker rule, and it is quite similar to _ starker rule, and it is quite similar to the british one, which is that if— similar to the british one, which is that if you — similar to the british one, which is that if you have actually not claimed _ that if you have actually not claimed asylum somewhere else before you cross _ claimed asylum somewhere else before you cross the border to texas, may be texas _ you cross the border to texas, may be texas of — you cross the border to texas, may be texas of course, then you are not entitled _ be texas of course, then you are not entitled to _ be texas of course, then you are not entitled to ask for asylum. and recently. — entitled to ask for asylum. and recently, some of the last weeks, numbers— recently, some of the last weeks, numbers have also gone down, but when _ numbers have also gone down, but when you _ numbers have also gone down, but when you hear sources or reports from _ when you hear sources or reports from mexico, there are so many migrants — from mexico, there are so many migrants on the mexican side of the border— migrants on the mexican side of the border and — migrants on the mexican side of the border and sooner or later, it will start— border and sooner or later, it will start again — border and sooner or later, it will start again-— start again. chris, that'll be an issue come — start again. chris, that'll be an issue come the _ start again. chris, that'll be an issue come the presidential. issue come the presidential election. ., , ., ., ., election. for sure. no matter who, and i think— election. for sure. no matter who, and i think we're _ election. for sure. no matter who, and i think we're going _ election. for sure. no matter who, and i think we're going to - election. for sure. no matter who, and i think we're going to talk- and i think we're going to talk about that later, no matter who emerges on the republican side, they will be hammering joe biden if it is indeed your biden was the democratic candidate again, they will be

hammering him on that but you look back at trump's record in the southern border, and it wasn't too stellar either. the war that was going to be built all along the texan border never really materialised. it is a big issue everywhere in the world, because so many people are on the move. chris. many people are on the move. chris, stehanie, many people are on the move. chris, stephanie, thank _ many people are on the move. chris, stephanie, thank you _ many people are on the move. chris, stephanie, thank you both _ many people are on the move. chris, stephanie, thank you both for - many people are on the move. chris, stephanie, thank you both for the moment. we will be back with you in a few minutes. as chris alluded to there, we will be taking a closer look at us politics. certainly on the republican side as more and more candidates through their hat into the ring to take on donald trump and become the republican nominee for the presidential race. we will be taking a look at is that in a few minutes. do stay with us. for the moment though, you are watching the context here on bbc news. goodbye.

hello. we'll start by casting our eyes a little bit further into the week because some of you may actually see some rain this weekend. it's been a fair few weeks and it all links into what's been happening today. all this cloud here is associated with storm 0scar. it's been affecting particularly madeira, but to a lesser extent, the canary islands. here's the area of low pressure. it pushes its way northwards over the next few days. weakens, though, as it gets closer to us. it's never quite reaching, but it destabilises things enough for some showers and thunderstorms to brew. not everyone, though, will see the rain, but what we'll all feel is a feed of slightly warmer air come our way. humidity levels creep up and by the end of the weekend, temperatures widely in the mid, if not high 20s and certainly feeling warmer by night. that has been the big thing recently, those rather cool mornings. today, though, out in the sunshine, it's been pleasant enough, fairly fresh, 2a, very pleasant, under blue skies here

in northern ireland. but once again towards the east coast, temperatures struggling around 12 or 13 degrees and that low cloud once again becomes extensive through the night and into the morning, particularly across england, east wales, central and eastern scotland. the edges to the west where the skies remain clear. temperatures in rural parts down into lower single figures, but with the clouds in place around seven to 11 degrees to start tuesday. now, the main difference with tuesday compared with monday is that cloud is going to be slower to retreat back towards eastern counties again some and this time parts of yorkshire, lincolnshire, east midlands really struggling to lose it all day long. a brighter day perhaps for some across southernmost counties and also across the north east of scotland. but the winds strong across the south. again, it's been nagging for a good week or two so far and where the winds are lightest, western scotland, northern ireland, the highest of the temperatures again 23 or 2a degrees. pollen levels creeping up here as we head in towards the grass. pollen season remaining moderate to high across much

of england and wales, then into wednesday, well, it's across england, east wales. we start with that low cloud but actually should clear a bit quicker for many of those. some eastern coast, north east england down through towards lincolnshire may struggle to lose it all day long, warming up a little bit to the south and the west once again and maybe a little less chilly down those eastern coasts, too. but as i said, if you go through the end of the week, towards the weekend, shifting wind direction, warmer air comes in a bit more cloud around, the chance of one or two showers. but sunday will stay dry, but very humid by day and night.