sunshine, more dry day. warm in the sunshine, more of a breeze perhaps tomorrow —— fewer showers. 2a or 25 in the midlands and across eastern parts of england. more rain to come overnight heading into tuesday. this could be heavy and thundery, pushing across england and wales. again heading northwards in that muggy air toward scotland with sunshine and thundery showers breaking out elsewhere. maybe not quite so warm on tuesday. typical temperatures, 20 to 22 celsius. the next few days, the threat of more thunderstorms and warm sunshine. late in the week, it does become a bit drier, especially in the south—east of the uk. with that sunshine, it will get hotter here as well. saturday could be back up here as well. saturday could be back up to 30 degrees in the south—east. darren, thank you very much. and that's bbc news at ten. there's more analysis of the day's stories on the bbc news website. now it's time to join our colleagues across the nations and regions for the news where you are. from all of us, goodnight.

we'll have all the day's headlines from the uk and around the world at the top of the hour. but first on bbc news, it's unspun world. hello, and welcome to unspun world — the programme where the bbc�*s global team of experts tells us what's really going on. today: is russia managing to defend itself successfully against ukraine's counter—offensive? russia is still, and the ukrainians know this, a weakened but formidable fighting force.

runners and riders in the american presidential race. but can donald trump be stopped? there's about 30% of republican voters who are going to live and die by donald trump. that's his base. and they're going to stick with him through thick and thin. and a heartfelt account from our correspondent injohannesburg about south africa's future. i want to believe that things are going to change for the better. i want to still live in a south africa that was prosperous because it still can be prosperous. ukraine's counteroffensive is well under way against the russian invaders. but if people in the west, often encouraged by commentators in the media, thought it was going to be a walkover, well, it hasn't been, so far, at any rate. i asked jonny beale, the bbc�*s defence correspondent, for his views about the way

the counter—offensive is going. it's going to take time. it could take weeks, it could take months, i think more likely months. and i don't think what we've seen so far necessarily tells you where ukraine's main effort might be, where they're going to put most of their resources. they've got 12 new brigades. they've already introduced some of those units into the battle to take back territory in the east near donetsk. and they've had limited success there in the south as well. so i think what you're seeing is essentially probing attacks like the russians did in the early stages, trying to work out where the weak points are before you see the main action. i've read loads of articles, often by military or ex—military people, saying that there's a very strong possibility the russians mightjust crumble and collapse in the face

of a ukrainian counteroffensive. i mean, they're not doing that at the moment, are they? i don't think that you get any sense that the russians are going to crumble. you know, they've got significant... they've had significant resources. they've suffered heavy losses, yes. but you don't get any sense that... you know, from some of these initial encounters, we've seen western weapons destroyed, western armoured vehicles and tanks. so, you know, russia is still, and the ukrainians know this, a weakened but formidable fighting force, which, you know, has got putin breathing down its neck saying you've got to hold the line. russians often talk in rather sort of self—pitying ways about how their real enemy is nato. it's not ukraine. but they're right, aren't they? there aren't, apart from handfuls

of western special forces, there aren't nato boots on the ground. they're not doing, they're not engaged in the fighting in the same way ukraine is. so the west can continue to argue that it is not directly involved in the conflict. but the truth is, as you say, you are supplying the western weaponry to ukraine. you know, it's clear which side the west is backing and it's doing more... it's providing intelligence. it's doing more than just providing weapons. and it is helping ukraine, try to defeat russia. so, russia can use that argument. the west can always say, well, hang on a sec, we haven't got boots on the ground. i think people willjudge for themselves whether, you know, who's telling the truth. and probably, there's a bit of truth on both sides. can i finally ask you the question that nobody in your position should be forced to answer? how is this going to end?

ukraine's vision of victory, it says, is taking back all its territories. do you think, do i think that people in the west believe it's going to do that in this offensive? and i think the answer's no. and then you've got the problem of, you know, if you're going to continue backing ukraine, what is enough in terms of changing the battle as it currently is? what gains have ukraine got to make? and i think the answer is probably different around capitals of the world. you know, the enthusiasm may be affected by how big the success is of ukraine on the battlefield or not. there is also a realisation, and we talked about this before, about the political cycles that happen in the west, the presidential election, you know, that is going to start soon.

you know, european countries involved in their own domestic politics. the patience of the west, and ukraine is acutely aware of this, may be limited. and i think, you know, ukraine's own resources are limited and russia's still not had a call—up of all its fighting—age males. you know, ukraine is, one of the things that struck me when i went to ukraine recently is the, you know, the danger of running out of people. yeah, yes, definitely. that is a worry as to how long they can do it. so, you know, i think what's been amazing so far is, is the west, you know, and they all talk about it, the unity. there has been relative unity about ukraine. but, you know, that gets harder the longer this war goes on. according to american media reports at any rate, ex—president donald trump kept

documents containing some of america's greatest secrets in cardboard boxes in, among other places, a shower room at his place in florida, mar a lago, where any visitors could see them. two of his visitors apparently were chinese nationals. now, ex—president trump is facing 37 criminal charges as a result, all of which he denies. and yet it only seems to be making him more popular with the republican party, as anthony zurcher, one of the bbc�*s north america correspondents, explains. well, you know, the polls certainly seem to indicate that donald trump is a prohibitive favourite right now. if you look at them, he's at about 50% approval, support from republican voters in primaries. and that is a serious advantage. i think more than that, though, there's about 30% of republican

voters who are going to live and die by donald trump. that's his base. and they're going to stick with him through thick and thin. even if some of those other voters peel off, 30% is enough to win a lot of primaries in a crowded field. and you talk about all the riders. well, the more people there are in the field, the more that vote is divided and the easier it will be for donald trump. but he's coming into this kind of like an incumbent, really. and that's partially because a lot of republican voters view him as the incumbent. they think that the election was stolen from him in 2020, without any kind of evidence supporting that. but that's what they believe. that's what donald trump has told them, and that's the way they're operating. it's his party and they're sticking with him. so who else should we be looking at? well, i think first and foremost, you should look at ron desantis. he is the person who has the most significant support outside of donald trump. he's the governor of florida, a conservative. he has really leaned

heavily into social issues, criticising transgender rights, being in favour of gun freedoms, gun rights, limiting abortion rights in his state. but more importantly, just talking about how there is a liberal, a woke liberal agenda that is taking away people's rights and he's the one who is pushing back against it, that he has a conservative record in florida accomplishments. other ones — vice president mike pence is running a campaign that's focusing on conservative christian voters. he has a strong base of support among evangelical voters, particularly in early voting states like iowa and south carolina. this is the first time in modern american history that a former vice president is taking on his former president, his ticket mate. so that makes for an unusual dynamic. beyond those, there are some governors. there is a senator from south carolina running, there's a former governor, chris christie, who ran in 2016 and lost to donald trump. but right now, all of those people are pretty low, single digits at best in the polls.

there's no question, is there, that the wheels ofjustice could move fast enough for trump to be actually in jail in the months running up to to the election. if you look at the new york indictment, that state level indictment, there's not going to be a trial now until march of next year. that is going to take a lot of time. and who knows what other delays there might be. the federal case — a lot of it depends on what the judge presiding over this case, aileen cannon, who was a trump appointee, and has had rulings related to this case favourable to donald trump last year, what she does, what sort of motions she entertains as far as challenges to evidence. legal experts say this could drag on into next year. a trial in this case may not even happen before election day next year. and that could put us in a position where voters are going to the polls in november of 2024, not knowing if donald trump is going to go to prison, not knowing if he's going to be

found guilty in any of these cases. ok, let's turn the coin over and look atjoe biden. really looking his age, acting his age sometimes. is he nevertheless going to be able to defeat donald trump, do you think? well, you know, i mean, a lot of that depends on how he looks and how he campaigns. i think there's going to be an expectation that he have a vigorous presidential campaign, unlike 2020, when a lot of it was done virtually, a lot of it limited his ability to travel. he is going to have to get out there and show the american public that he still has the vitality, the energy to be president until he's 86 years old. if you look at polls, joe biden runs neck and neck with donald trump,

but it's early and you really can't read too much into horse race polls. but when it comes down to it and american voters have a choice betweenjoe biden and donald trump, democrats are not going to vote for donald trump. election after election, ever since i can remember really, well, certainly back into the 705, people around the world say, "is this the best that america can do?" "these two men?" it's not good for america, this, is it? this is the kind of scenario where a third—party candidate might actually attract significant support because of this dissatisfaction with both candidates who have very, very clear flaws. donald trump, obviously, there's a track record for him now. what happened while he was in office, the way he ended his presidency with the january sixth attack on the capitol. and joe biden, you have to remember, he was the safe choice for democrats in 2020. the problem with that is that four years later, you havejoe biden, an incumbent who is 80 years old,

and he is going to want to be president for another four years. and maybe they didn't think about that at the time. they were too focused on the present. but it's a difficult situation i think for a lot of voters and is going to be one of these cases where they go to the polls in november and maybe choose the lesser of two evils or the lesser of two uneases when they cast their ballots. extraordinary shifts are taking place in the middle east. saudi arabia has long ceased to be the somnolent, obedient follower of washington, and a new and previously unthought of loose association of countries seems to be forming. the saudis, their former enemy, iran, the gulf states and increasingly syria, which brings in russia, and russia brings in china. but what initially brought iran and saudi arabia together? i asked baron abbasi of bbc persian to explain. iran has been under

sanctions for years now because of its nuclear programme and also because of its human rights record. and in recent months, it's been under huge pressure domestically because of the nationwide protests in iran against the regime. and also it signed a strategic partnership deal with china in 2021. it's a long—term one. it spans out over 20 years. one of the conditions would be to increase stability in the region, and china would definitely want that. china is iran's biggest trading partner. israel was another problem, because israel is warming up to arab nations. it's a stunning blow to israel, isn't it? exactly. because israel was hoping to resume relations with saudi arabia through its abraham accord. i mean, it did do that

with the uae and bahrain. but the real deal was saudi arabia. it was hoping to achieve that. and not only did that not happen, saudi arabia is resuming diplomatic relations with its arch rival, iran, and also is warming up to syria's bashar al—assad, which is a mortal enemy of israel. it really is quite extraordinary, given the hostility that the saudis have always had to shia islam, to come to the biggest shia islam nation and make peace with them? yeah, and also iranians. i mean, the iranian leader used very demeaning words against saudi arabia when the diplomatic relations broke up. like, he called them idiots, he called them incompetent. it seems that prince mohammed bin salman of saudi arabia,

the crown prince, pursues his economic interests of saudi arabia and also i think saudi arabia feels a bit insecure when it comes to the region and the fact that the us used to offer guarantees, security guarantees to saudi arabia. but as it ended its dependency on saudi oil, it seems that their paths kind of diverged and the fact that the biden administration has publicly criticised the foreign policy of saudi arabia, the killing of jamal khashoggi, the journalist. and also the war in yemen. it seems that they kind of are cosying up to china now for guarantees for security. in terms of sectarianism, it won't go away overnight, because it's been going on for decades. well, centuries, millennia. yeah, yeah.

what do you think it means for the war in yemen? saudi arabia didn't want to, i think, carry on with the war. but they needed some sort of opportunity to end the war in yemen and i think iran wants it as well. so i think for yemen, it could bring some sort of stability and some sort of peace. also it could happen in lebanon, maybe more stability in lebanon, in iraq, because iran is wielding a lot of power, political and military power through its shia militia in both countries. looking at the overall picture, it really does strengthen that notion that china, russia, iran, i mean, all the kind of enemies of the west are coming together? exactly, it seems they are this small club of authoritarian regimes that have come together and they are not genuine friends, they are kind of business partners. but they are pursuing their own

strategic interests and also they kind of want to challenge the us dominated world order. especially in the middle east, as the us role diminishes. it doesn't show that much interest in the middle east any more. it seems that china is growing its influence and for russia, it made perfect sense i think for iranians and russians to kind of partner up over the war in ukraine, and for iran to sell weapons to russia, because they are both under sanctions. they are both feeling isolated. i think they've learnt to kind of work together, but it doesn't seem they are genuine partners. south africa, once the biggest economy on the continent of africa and an example of tolerance and political compromise to the entire world, is in a real mess. daily power cuts, frightening levels

of crime, corruption on a breathtaking scale. nomsa maseko, the bbc�*s south africa corresspondent, is south african herself. in a gap between power cuts, i talk to her, notjust about the country's disastrous politics, but about what it meant to her as a south african and as a mother. this is the first time in many years that south africans truly believe that this presidency is not doing what it is supposed to be doing. there were promises back in 1994, you know, when nelson mandela said south africa was going to provide a better life for all, in a democratic south africa. however, nearly 30 years into this democracy, there's a lot that south africans seem to think that yes, cyril ramaphosa is the president, but possibly not the right person for the job right now. do you think that all the power

outages and the constant problems that every south african... i mean, yourself included, have to suffer, is that down to individual government ministers or government officials? or is itjust a system that ought to have been sorted out years ago and never quite was? the mess that south africa finds itself in is actually the country's own doing. because there were calls many years ago that the system was under severe constraint and that there were maintenance issues that needed to be addressed. there were grid collapses that literally were hanging on by a thread. that is what we are currently experiencing here in south africa. there is even allegations that someone or some people within the government are earning a lot of money because of the power cuts that we are seeing

because of subcontractors, because some companies need to be brought in, because the system needs to be fixed. questions are being asked. is the system really broken? there are calls to privatise some state—owned entities so that there can be people who can be held accountable. there's a lot of despondency at the state, regarding the power cuts and how they have translated into millions and millions ofjob losses. because companies can no longer operate the way they used to, an eight—hour day has been cut to say maybe four, even three hours of electricity. south africans want a solution and they want it now. well, it's going to be in the hands of individual south africans next year, when there is an election. what do you think?

i mean will the traditional support for the ancjust come out in sufficient numbers to vote them back? based on all the wrong, you know, things that are actually taking place, the power cuts, unemployment, government corruption, crime, a lot of south africans are starting to question if the anc is still the right party to continue governing in this country and to govern on its own. a lot of people believe that even though there is no credible opposition at this stage, they believe that once the anc loses its dominance and its majority in parliament, perhaps that will be a wake—up call. so there is a belief that perhaps south africa is ready for a coalition government. it does appear that the youth vote

is going to be the decider in next year's general election. because young people are tired of sitting at home and doing nothing. young people are tired of drugs. young people are tired of seeing government ministers driving around in blue lights and expensive german cars when they are sitting at home with nothing to do, while they have degrees, they have gone to study. and yet, still don't have jobs. can i ask you as a person, are you optimistic about the future of south africa? or do you think it really is on a downward trend that nothing is going to stop? as a south african, i want to believe that things are going to change for the better. as a mother to a toddler, i want to believe that there is still a future in this country for my child. i want to still live in a south africa that was prosperous

because it still can be prosperous. i want to live in a country where not everything is highly politicised. because the issues that south africa is currently going through are not the kind of issues that only politicians need to fix, but it takes all of us as south africans to fix this country. nomsa maseko, the bbc�*s southern african correspondent speaking from johannesburg. for me, there's a real poignancy about contemplating what's going on in south africa at the moment. the entirely peaceful handover of power back in 1994 from the apartheid government to nelson mandela and the anc was really the high point my entire career. i've seen south africa at its nadir, its very worst, when i was the bbc correspondent there in the apartheid days of the mid—705. and to be on hand for the miracle,

the settlement which included blacks, whites, indians, mixed race people was quite simply wonderful. so what's gone so badly wrong? well, lots of things. but chief among them has been, i would say, the fact of the creation of what is in effect, a one—party state. the anc started out in many ways, an attractive, broad based organisation. but its decades in power led to a culture of entitlement and a willingness to cover up for corruption. and such corruption. who can entirely blame a teenager who steals the copper wiring from the country's power lines when top government officials are creaming off millions and people

at the very top are alleged to have pocketed billions. well, next year's elections may well see a major reckoning in south africa. who knows, maybe i'll be lucky enough to be on hand for that, too. that's it from unspun world this week. from the production team and from me, goodbye. hello, thanks forjoining me. it was quite a wild day for some of us with those thunderstorms. started off quite sunny, then the cloud started to build and storms formed. 0n the satellite picture, you can see the motion of the cloud coming in from the south, a warm direction. humid air, a lot of energy in the atmosphere, and then those thunderstorms started to develop.

a lot of rainfall in a short space of time, and it's been so dry in many areas of the uk that all that rainfall falling onto that solid ground meant flash flooding in at least some areas. now, through the course of the night, the storms will rumble away for a time and then we'll see the heaviest of the rain across northern parts of england and into southern and central scotland. so a very wet night across this part of the country, i think especially eastern and central areas of scotland, and again a possibility of some flash flooding. to the south of that, much quieter, still muggy. temperatures early in the morning on monday around about 13—15 celsius. how about the week ahead? it's going to stay on the warm side, but there's still a chance of catching some showers and thunderstorms. so here's the forecast for monday, then. still quite wet, at least early in the morning, across parts of scotland.

it will take time for that weather front to move away to the north. and then behind it, it's basically a mixture of sunshine and scattered showers. again, some of them could be heavy, there could be 1—2 downpours, again, 1—2 cracks of thunder, but nowhere near as widespread or as potent, those showers, as sunday. temperatures up to 25 celsius on the north sea coasts. it really will feel quite warm. on tuesday, we still see globs of blue, and this is air generally coming in from the southwest, coming in from the southwest, so a relatively warm direction, so a relatively warm direction, and the possibility of some showers and thunderstorms. i think on tuesday, there's a greater chance once again of catching some rain, almost anywhere, really. and those temperatures, bang—on average for most of us for the time of the year, around the low 20s. that's tuesday, let's have a look at wednesday's weather forecast now. and you can see that we're starting to see this ridge of high pressure building in from the southwest. yes, still a chance of a few showers, i think broadly speaking, across the northern half of the uk. but here from the southwest, that high pressure, the sinking air, inhibiting those showers

is starting to build. again, temperatures around the average, typically the low 20s. let's see how things unfold, then, from wednesday onwards. and, yes, we still have low pressure out into the atlantic. that will be probably brushing northwestern parts of the uk, but ahead of it, there's that ridge of high pressure building with the sinking air. that is also going to allow for the warm air to spread in from iberia and france into the uk, and there is an indication that temperatures are going to be climbing, at least across parts of england, as we go towards the end of the week. no guarantee that we're going to see a hot spell because the less hot air, that fresher air in the atlantic, may actually cut off the supply of that heat from the south. but if you look at the apps, if you're going to be following them, you'll notice that, in fact, already, we're seeing temperatures in the high 20s across some southern parts of the uk. but from the weather icons, you'll also notice that the weather

is more mixed, with certainly a few showers on the horizon. bye— bye.