the in parts of the south—east. the worms did spawn some showers, still a few of those in part of the midlands and eastern england —— warmth. the night, the first signs of the humid air, more cloud and rain in parts of northern ireland, and western scotland, so outbreaks of rain moving across northern ireland across scotland. some patchy rain in north—east england and parts of wales and it will be quite breezy in the west. the best of any sunshine, north—east scotland will do well, the highest temperatures in the south—east. maybe not as warm as today but it will be more humid so i think it will feel pretty warm out there. we take the humid feel into saturday with a lot of cloud to begin and some rain in the north—west of the uk but spells of sunshine developing which will left the temperatures to 25 in 29 in london. forthe the temperatures to 25 in 29 in london. for the second half of the

weekend, it is almost to the west because we have a frontal system are pushing in and it will take awhile to get here but it will eventually bring some heavy thunder and rain and behind ita bring some heavy thunder and rain and behind it a westerly wind and a return to something a bit fresher but ahead of the weather front, we can see highs of 30 or 31. on sunday afternoon. to sum it up it will be very warm indeed, the knights will be humid, it could be uncomfortable for sleeping and increasing chance of thundery downpours. that is what i have got a few. thanks, ben. and that's bbc news at ten on thursday the 22nd ofjune. there's more analysis of the day's main stories on newsnight with mark urban, which isjust getting under way on bbc two. the news continues here on bbc one, as now it's time to join our colleagues across the nations and regions for the news where you are. but from the ten team, it's goodnight.

if more pain for borrowers as the rates go up again. the bank of england governor says �*unsustainable' wage rises are part of the problem but many tories mps are blaming the bank for being too slow to fight inflation. by getting it wrong, they are hurting — by getting it wrong, they are hurting an awful lot of people. and that cannot be right. they have been tasked _ that cannot be right. they have been tasked to _ that cannot be right. they have been tasked to keep inflation below 2% and they— tasked to keep inflation below 2% and they let the genie out of the bottle _ this former bank of england economist says

there is a better option than rate hikes. also tonight. we'll have the latest as the us coast guard says wreckage of the submersible titan has been found on the sea bed. the debris is consistent with the catastrophic loss of the pressure chamber. upon this determination, we immediately notified the families. ukraine's counter offensive continues, give us time they say, we'll examine the tactics they and the russians are using as they struggle for victory. and this... the mother of a woman killed when she tried to divorce her husband tell us he didn't want her to have her own voice. we lost our unborn grandson as well.

two lives have been lost, it's double murder. good evening. inflation is rampant, productivity stalled, and the threat of recession. it's a daunting economic situation and it's producing a good deal of friction among those trying to manage the economy. today's big interest rate rise is meant to choke inflation by making mortgages so expensive that many households haven't got enough money for doing much other than servicing that debt. if it's not hurting — as a former conservative chancellor said — it's not working. it's certainly going to hurt for many now, but will it work in getting the government on top of inflation, and are there alternatives? here's ben. a super—sized 0.5% rate hike from the bank of england, swelling uk interest rates to their highest level since 2008. pretty much everyone agrees that high inflation

is a problem and it does seem to be a particular problem in the uk. but are there alternative ways, other than interest—rate hikes, to bringing it down? 5% plus interest rates are a pretty blunt tool, especially given they will mainly work by squeezing 7.5 million mortgaged households, and the financial impact of that are not going to be equal either, socially or generationally. this shows the proportion of homeowners with a mortgage split by age. the highest share is among 35—44 —year—olds at 29%, and here is the share who own it outright. it's much higherfor the over 60s, where almost 62% are owner occupiers. the implications of this is that the pain of rate hikes will hit younger generation is considerably harder. also, average wages might be growing at over 7% year—on—year, alarming bank of england about the impact of this on inflation, yet that's still less than actual inflation, meaning in real terms average wages are still falling.

is a rate hike induced slowdown, perhaps even a recession, really going to be good for workers? but what might these alternatives to rate hikes be? some have suggested price controls. so we have price controls already, we have the energy price guarantee implemented by this government, so my suggestion would be to look at how can we extend it. it's currently planned to be phased out in the autumn, so extend it into the next year, like germany, france and others are doing, and also expanded to more businesses. it would bring inflation down. we know the energy price guarantee last year has brought inflation down instantaneously by about two percentage points, so it has already helped, we know it works so why not do more of it? in france, the finance minister bruno le maire said this month he had secured a pledge from food companies to cut prices on hundreds of products to reflect a fall in raw material costs. profits on some businesses

in some areas are exceptionally high, and some businesses, they should be taking profit hits because people take wage hits, they are keeping them up or increasing them, and there is some evidence to show that in the food manufacturing sector this is also the case, and france has taken tough action to say, if your input prices go down, you should also lower your prices, and this is what the uk government should do as well. but unorthodox approaches to inflation control, like the turkish president's order for his country's central bank to cut interest rates in the face of high inflation in 2021 did not end well. the inflation rate quadrupled to 80%. is that a lesson on the dangers of seeking to avoid the bitter medicine of rising interest rates? the soviet union used to set prices better. while that may have worked for a while, economic history suggests it is not sustainable. i think if you take a medium—term

view it is better to have an economy, better for all of us to have an economy where inflation is low and stable and as predictable as possible. it's good for business, it's good for all of us, and inflation makes us all poorer, so to the extent that you have to do something, what we are doing now is kind of the least worst option, because to not get inflation under control would be a worse situation in the medium to long term for all of us. inflation eats away at the money in your pocket and that's wrong. but it's a simple reality that fiscal policy for ministers, tax rises or spending cuts, can also influence what the bank needs to do on interest rates to tame inflation. the lever that the bank of england has is setting the base rate which then has a transmission effect throughout the economy. of course, when they do set they take into account what the government may have independently decided to do, so if the government decided to try to reduce demand in some other

way then they may have to raise interest rate less. for the bank of england, when it comes to controlling inflation, there might be no alternative to hiking interest rates, but government ministers are not merely spectators. they are also able to make the weather. earlier we spoke to the conservative mp and treasury select committee memberjohn baron. he's been critical of the bank of england, so i began by asking him whether or not he approved of today's interest rate rise. i don't. and the reason i don't is because i think that consumers and households are now paying the price for the bank of england having been asleep at the helm over the last few years when it comes to trying to keep inflation tamed. they've been too far behind the curve, and i think we are now paying the price for that. but does that mean you think they should have done this sooner, or you just don't think that interest rates should be at these levels? no, they should have done it sooner, because there were clear signs quite a while ago that inflation was picking up. initially, they ignored the signs.

then they said the inflation was going to be transitory. to give you an indication, they say that it's all down to external shocks. of course, they can't be predicted. but a month before the invasion of ukraine, inflation was running at 6%. interest rates were still half a percent. and their task is to keep inflation — running at six at that point — down to two or below. and in terms of the effect on voters, doubling or even trebling mortgage repayments, it's going to hurt the government, isn't it, this? well, we'll have to wait and see. all i know is that all political parties believe that the bank of england should be independent. it is independent. i don't hear any political parties suggesting that they should take back control of interest rates. but there may be a follow—through on this when it comes to voting, we'll have to wait and see. what i'm more concerned with at the moment is getting, doing the right thing for the country, and the government... not the government, sorry,

the bank of england now must actually get its act together and fundamentally review how it makes economic forecasts and inflation forecasts. something they've committed to doing, but it must be be fundamental and take into account a whole range of variables which, hitherto, they have not. now, i take it from what you've just said that you personally don't favour transferring control of interest rates back to the treasury, back to the government? no, i don't. i think it was a wise move to make the bank of england independent. you can't have, in my view, political parties controlling interest rates. it makes for all sorts ofjiggery—pokery. so does that mean that the prime minister's target of trying to halve inflation — which we reckon would be tojust over 5%, compared to when he made that pledge — is attainable before a general election or not, do you think? i don't know. what i do know is this, is that when you increase interest rates, they often have a 12 to 15—month lag

before they hit the real economy. now, my question to the bank of england is, if they are confident and if central banks generally are confident in their inflation forecasts by the year end, which are lower than where they are now, then why are they still increasing interest rates? and the governor, andrew bailey, does he still have your confidence? actually, my confidence is running low in the whole of the mpc. and don't forget, this problem started with interest rates significantly being behind the curve of inflation a year or two ago, before andrew bailey turned up. so i think this is a bigger problem than just one individual. by getting it wrong, they are hurting an awful lot of people, and that cannot be right. they've been tasked to keep inflation below 2% and they let the genie out of the bottle. if we can just round up this by summing up at the end, you're saying the inflation genie is out of the bottle. global factors are to blame. it sounds like you feel

the government is heading towards a general election with no real agency or control of this. what i'm saying is, is that global interest rates have been behind the curve. this is notjust a bank of england issue. but when it comes to the bank of england, many of us have been saying for a little while now that, come on, raise your game, you're too far behind the curve on inflation, and now we're paying the price. let us hope that the steps, sincerely hope the steps the bank has taken now, when it comes to a fundamental review of how it conducts its forecasting, pays off. but they've got to get on with the job and they've got to do it quickly. danny blanchflower was a member of the bank of england monetary policy committee, which sets interest rates during the last financial crisis and is an economics professor at dartmouth college. thank you forjoining us on newsnight. do i understand, professor, that you think it will

hurt but not work?— professor, that you think it will hurt but not work? that is exactly what i think- _ hurt but not work? that is exactly what i think. inflation _ hurt but not work? that is exactly what i think. inflation is _ hurt but not work? that is exactly what i think. inflation is clearly i what i think. inflation is clearly hurting people. i dissent strongly from the previous commentator because we have just had two giant shocks which is the covid shock in the ukraine war and added to that, brexit. the interest rises really have very little effect. inflation has come down from one point, which suggests that interest rate rises are not the right tool. the idea you make a promise by the prime minister to halve inflation without actually saying, what are the costs of doing that? to the costs of doing that we are hearing very quickly about. we are hearing very quickly about. we are hearing very quickly about. we are hearing about collapsing housing markets and especially we will hear about a shattered economy, recession and unemployment rising which it turns out by all the evidence is much worse so anything imposed is worse. y much worse so anything imposed is worse, , ., much worse so anything imposed is worse. , ., , , ,

worse. sorry to “ump in because we will come back— worse. sorry to jump in because we will come back to _ worse. sorry to jump in because we will come back to the _ worse. sorry to jump in because we will come back to the rishi - worse. sorry to jump in because we will come back to the rishi sunak i will come back to the rishi sunak pledge, i hope, on halving inflation, but let's come back to your central point, that it is a blunt and ineffective instrument, so what is your alternative for trying to get on top of inflation on the situation? i to get on top of inflation on the situation? ~ , situation? i think the first thing, and the dissenters _ situation? i think the first thing, and the dissenters have - situation? i think the first thing, | and the dissenters have probably situation? i think the first thing, - and the dissenters have probably got it right, and the reality is that the bank is actually forecasting that insulation will be below the target in about 18 months' time. that is actually a significant chance of deflation so here we have an incoherence. their own forecasts tell you that they should be cutting rates, this is a complete incoherence, and it even says in the notes that we expect inflation to be below the target. so they have basically said you raise these rates and it is going to take a while for them to have an effect, you don't

need to raise rates now, and in a sense in addition to what ben chu was saying, what you need to do is wait and wait for the interest rate rises, 13 in a row, to take effect. do you still believe those bank of england projections? because asjohn baron was saying, they were slow to acknowledge we were getting into heightened inflation and they have been predicting a steeper fall than has transpired, so they don't seem to be great forecasters? the forecasting _ to be great forecasters? the forecasting of _ to be great forecasters? the forecasting of the _ to be great forecasters? tue: forecasting of the bank of to be great forecasters? tt9: forecasting of the bank of england was the bugbear of my life. remember that they completely missed the great recession in 2008 and we see no real improvement there. i think the answer is that there have been continuing shocks hitting the system, i think the answer is inflation is going to eventually go away and in all probability within two years, and that is the experience we have seen in the

united states, where inflation there is 4% and will be less than 3% in a month's time. the one thing you have to ask is why as the uk different and the answer is because of brexit, thatis and the answer is because of brexit, that is the only thing we can come up that is the only thing we can come up with, so the answer is maybe inflation will remain too high but raising rates will not solve the brexit problem. we raising rates will not solve the brexit problem.— raising rates will not solve the brexit roblem. ~ :, ., brexit problem. we are near the end and i am terribly _ brexit problem. we are near the end and i am terribly sorry _ brexit problem. we are near the end and i am terribly sorry to _ brexit problem. we are near the end and i am terribly sorry to jump - brexit problem. we are near the end and i am terribly sorry to jump in - and i am terribly sorry tojump in again. do you think that given the 18 month timescale you have set out, which is suspiciously close to the electoral timescale, that the governmentjust has to sit there and say that neither we nor the bank of england can do much about this and leave well alone, and there this politically possible? t leave well alone, and there this politically possible?— leave well alone, and there this politically possible? i don't think it is politically _ politically possible? i don't think it is politically possible. - politically possible? i don't think it is politically possible. what. politically possible? i don't think it is politically possible. what is| it is politically possible. what is going to happen is the outcome now generated by these rate rises and austerity on the part of the government, refusalto austerity on the part of the government, refusal to help homeowners, what we will see is that that outcome is much worse, so a rise in unemployment by 1% is about

five times worse in well—being terms and probably in voting terms of a 1% rise in inflation. so basically these rate rises have given up any hope rishi sunak had of winning the election and it may well decimate the tory party so i think the answer is these rate rises day two of the ukraine recovery conference wound up in london today. there were pledges — financial and otherwise — to help re—build the country. but one of the reasons why those haven't been bigger is that many companies are reluctant to invest while the bombs are still falling. many supporters of ukraine had cherished the hope that this summer might see a military offensive that could liberate occupied territory and lead to peace. it started early this month. the western consensus about ukraine's counter—offensive seems to be that it's too early to say whether it's succeeding.

so what are the ukrainians trying to achieve? and how long will it take to see the limits of how far they've got? the main effort we've seen so far is a broad—front attack across this space, about 150 kilometers wide. the aim is to breach minefields, advance and draw out russian artillery into action, so it can be found and destroyed. this incident last week was perhaps the ukrainians' most spectacular success so far in that tactic, seeing the rapid destruction of five modern russian self—propelled guns.

they've knocked out dozens during the past few weeks too. artillery is so important in this war that if it can be thinned, parts of the russian defence may well be opened up. first, minefields have to be breached, the ukrainians taking significant casualties and in places — for example, where the western—trained 37th marine brigade has been engaged — not getting very far. there have been a few kilometres gained in other sites, but they're still 15 or 20 kilometres short of the main russian defence belt. for their part, the russians have launched local counter—attacks. but their more effective tactic has involved using ground attack aircraft and helicopters to blunt the ukrainian attacks. we've seen quite a few images like these in recent weeks of ukrainian columns being hit.

the russians have the advantage of flying over their own troops when they launch these attacks, so the risks of losing the aircraft are less. what's more, russia's shifted its long—range missile and drone attacks around ukrainian towns in recent weeks, from kyiv to 0desa, kryvyi rih and kharkiv. if ukraine has to defend so many places against these strikes, it keeps their limited number of anti—aircraft missiles and guns rooted to those places, rather than allowing them to use those weapons to cover their advances in the south and east from russian air attack. another tactic the russians have used is to mount their own pushes. here in the donbas earlier this week, for example. that's costly for russia too, of course, exposing them to the kind of bombardments the ukrainians have had down south.

but the russians' hope would seem to be to draw ukrainian troops east, away from their main axis of advance. so how long can this go on? ukraine creeps along on that southern front and in the donbas, to the north and south of bakhmut. it's keeping its strategic reserve centrally placed, so it can reinforce success in either of those directions. we believe that elements ofjust half of the ukrainian 12 brigades kept in reserve for this counter—offensive have been committed so far. all in the south. until the bulk of them have — and have taken significant losses — it will be hard to say that ukraine's attempts to re—take big parts of their country this summer are over. but that said, at the rate the two sides are going at it, a decision point would seem to be weeks, rather than months, away. each army will be hoping to destroy the other�*s artillery and most modern armour ahead of the other,

and to weaken the line and attain a breakthrough. the ukrainians still believe that's quite possible, but they will need a change of fortunes to do it. well, to discuss those tactics — and how the counteroffensive might develop from here — we're joined now byjustin crump, a defence and intelligence analyst who served for 27 years in the british army, and from kyiv by 0leksandr merezhko, an mp and chair of the ukrainian parliament's foreign affairs committee. welcome to you both. if i could start with you, 0leksandr merezhko. this use of aviation by the russians to mount these attacks, has that been a nasty surprise for you and for the soldiers at the front or did you fear that something like this might happen? find you fear that something like this might happen?— you fear that something like this miahthauen? , :, :, might happen? and by the way, one of our military goals _ might happen? and by the way, one of our military goals is _ might happen? and by the way, one of our military goals is to _ might happen? and by the way, one of our military goals is to prevent - our military goals is to prevent russia from dominating our sky. this is exactly why one of the reasons why we have been asking from our

allies and our partners to provide us with adequate air defence. but of course, we were prepared. and we have adequate military response to this russian tactic.— this russian tactic. justin, everybody _ this russian tactic. justin, everybody of _ this russian tactic. justin, everybody of course - this russian tactic. justin, everybody of course is - this russian tactic. justin, - everybody of course is saying, look, give this time. but we are heading for three weeks into this. are you disappointed with the ground gained so far? t disappointed with the ground gained so far? ~ , disappointed with the ground gained so far? ~' , : ., , so far? i think they certainly feelin: , so far? i think they certainly feeling. they _ so far? i think they certainly feeling, they hope - so far? i think they certainly feeling, they hope ukraine i so far? i think they certainly - feeling, they hope ukraine might be able feeling, they hope ukraine might be abie to— feeling, they hope ukraine might be able to do— feeling, they hope ukraine might be able to do more quickly in the russian — able to do more quickly in the russian forward defensive zone, so the area _ russian forward defensive zone, so the area in— russian forward defensive zone, so the area in front of the main russian _ the area in front of the main russian lines with the equipment that was— russian lines with the equipment that was donated and the newly trained — that was donated and the newly trained brigades. but to be honest, we were _ trained brigades. but to be honest, we were not surprised at the lack of progress _ we were not surprised at the lack of progress on — we were not surprised at the lack of progress on the ground. because of the difficulty of the task if you took_ the difficulty of the task if you took at — the difficulty of the task if you look at what is ahead of the ukrainians, it is a very well to defence. _ ukrainians, it is a very well to defence, the russians have had months — defence, the russians have had months to— defence, the russians have had months to build this up coming units dedicated _ months to build this up coming units dedicated to that defence. they have

placed _ dedicated to that defence. they have placed a _ dedicated to that defence. they have placed a huge amount of mines and that has— placed a huge amount of mines and that has been one of the biggest problems, they have concentrated their helicopters and that has been a challenge in this phase for ukraine _ a challenge in this phase for ukraine i_ a challenge in this phase for ukraine. ithink a challenge in this phase for ukraine. i think what is important is ukraine — ukraine. i think what is important is ukraine is— ukraine. i think what is important is ukraine is managing to wear down ukrainian _ is ukraine is managing to wear down ukrainian guns as you mentioned before, _ ukrainian guns as you mentioned before, that is a huge part of this phase _ before, that is a huge part of this phase of— before, that is a huge part of this phase of fighting. russian guns, yes _ phase of fighting. russian guns, yes that— phase of fighting. russian guns, yes. that will set a pattern for fighting — yes. that will set a pattern for fighting. it is too early to say. but ukraine i think would have hoped to have _ but ukraine i think would have hoped to have done more earlier, but they have followed back to a style of fighting — have followed back to a style of fighting very familiar to them and has yielded results in the past. 0leksandr last summer, there was a sort of flexing back and fourth between kherson in the south and kharkiv in the east, trying to see what is the better avenue, and after reverses in kharkiv —— in kherson, they did have results and kharkiv. it took two or three months to do that last summer, do they have time

to do that again this summer? weill. to do that again this summer? well, of course, to do that again this summer? well, of course. we _ to do that again this summer? well, of course, we can _ to do that again this summer? well, of course, we can try _ to do that again this summer? well, of course, we can try this. _ to do that again this summer? well, of course, we can try this. but - to do that again this summer? -tt of course, we can try this. but you know, we have to be smart and at the same time, we understand the enemy also draws some lessons from the previous experience. and i think that the surprise factor this time will also play its role. right now, as i see it, we are trying to probe russian defence lines and we are trying to find so to speak the achilles' heel of russian defence. and i am sure that it will be very unexpected breakthrough. but of course, take some time.- course, take some time. justin crum - , course, take some time. justin crump. we _ course, take some time. justin crump. we were _ course, take some time. justin crump, we were talking - course, take some time. justin crump, we were talking about| course, take some time. justin . crump, we were talking about this attritional process and of course, this goes on day after day. each side trying to hunt the other�*s artillery and tanks and that kind of thing. how do we know or do we have to admit we don't know who is ahead on that the moment? t to admit we don't know who is ahead on that the moment?— to admit we don't know who is ahead on that the moment? i think we don't know which huge _ on that the moment? i think we don't know which huge accuracy, _ on that the moment? i think we don't know which huge accuracy, i - on that the moment? i think we don't know which huge accuracy, i think - on that the moment? i think we don't know which huge accuracy, i think it l know which huge accuracy, i think it is one _

know which huge accuracy, i think it is one of— know which huge accuracy, i think it is one of the — know which huge accuracy, i think it is one of the frustrating thing is often _ is one of the frustrating thing is often especially when we speak to journalists and others. how many tanks _ journalists and others. how many tanks have — journalists and others. how many tanks have russia got left? you can have an _ tanks have russia got left? you can have an approximation, but it is hard _ have an approximation, but it is hard to— have an approximation, but it is hard to know completely and even if you have _ hard to know completely and even if you have vehicles in pictures, there is often _ you have vehicles in pictures, there is often uncertainty about that or a disabled _ is often uncertainty about that or a disabled vehicle —— vehicle can be brought— disabled vehicle —— vehicle can be brought back into service —— service so it— brought back into service —— service so it is— brought back into service —— service so it is hard — brought back into service —— service so it is hard to— brought back into service —— service so it is hard to tell exactly. but if you _ so it is hard to tell exactly. but if you can — so it is hard to tell exactly. but if you can ignore the claims from both— if you can ignore the claims from both sides — if you can ignore the claims from both sides in detail of the losses they have — both sides in detail of the losses they have inflicted on the enemy because — they have inflicted on the enemy because as you know, it is confusing in warfare _ because as you know, it is confusing in warfare and there will also always— in warfare and there will also always be uncertainty even if both sides— always be uncertainty even if both sides try— always be uncertainty even if both sides try to spin the numbers, but you can _ sides try to spin the numbers, but you can see — sides try to spin the numbers, but you can see the proportion of targets— you can see the proportion of targets claimed along the lines of guns. _ targets claimed along the lines of guns. air— targets claimed along the lines of guns, air defence and mines claimed by ukraine— guns, air defence and mines claimed by ukraine has increased and that is often _ by ukraine has increased and that is often packed with visual evidence. not for— often packed with visual evidence. not for everything, but for some of it. not for everything, but for some of it and _ not for everything, but for some of it and i_ not for everything, but for some of it. and i think that definitely shows— it. and i think that definitely shows the trend. we can see that trend _ shows the trend. we can see that trend climbing, it shows what ukraine — trend climbing, it shows what ukraine is— trend climbing, it shows what ukraine is doing, russia knows this. russia _ ukraine is doing, russia knows this. russia has— ukraine is doing, russia knows this. russia has no alternative but to expose — russia has no alternative but to expose its — russia has no alternative but to expose its guns if they are to fire back— expose its guns if they are to fire back at _ expose its guns if they are to fire back at the — expose its guns if they are to fire back at the ukrainians. i think you can see _ back at the ukrainians. i think you can see the — back at the ukrainians. i think you can see the trend if not the

absolute _ can see the trend if not the absolute numbers. and of cauca —— and of— absolute numbers. and of cauca —— and of course, what is uncertainty and of course, what is uncertainty and its— and of course, what is uncertainty and it's picking the moment in uncertainty where you think the parameters are lining up as best as they can _ parameters are lining up as best as they can to— parameters are lining up as best as they can to line up your offensive and that— they can to line up your offensive and that is— they can to line up your offensive and that is what you are looking for. ~ , :, and that is what you are looking for. ~' , :, ~' :, and that is what you are looking for. ~ , . ,, ., . ., , for. 0leksandr, ukraine clearly, regardless _ for. 0leksandr, ukraine clearly, regardless of _ for. 0leksandr, ukraine clearly, regardless of whether _ for. 0leksandr, ukraine clearly, regardless of whether this - for. 0leksandr, ukraine clearly, regardless of whether this goes j regardless of whether this goes really well or not so well, has no choice but to fight on and there could come a moment when there is a realisation in the army that not much more can be achieved this summer. do you think that will be a difficult moment if that comes, how to communicate that with the public? well, first of all, i am optimistic and we all understand that we have no choice but to liberate our entire territory, including ukraine. and i think we are going to conduct counter—offensive is, as many as it takes to do it. of course, life is not predictable and there can be some kind of respite. we cannot rule this out. but i'm sure that the next

month will be crucial and they will think, what is the major tendency towards our victory? mt think, what is the ma'or tendency towards our victory?_ towards our victory? all right, oleksandr_ towards our victory? all right, 0leksandr merezhko - towards our victory? all right, 0leksandr merezhko and - towards our victory? all right, | 0leksandr merezhko and justin towards our victory? all right, - 0leksandr merezhko and justin crump, 0leksandr merezhko and justin crump, thank you both very much indeed for joining us. in 2021, a woman was found, terribly injured, at the foot of arthur's seat in edinburgh. she later died, and a police investigation led to a trial. in an exclusive interview with bbc newsnight, yasminjaved, mother of fawziyahjaved, reveals details of her daughter's tragic murder. she was killed by her partner. yasminjaved believes one of the motives for her daughter's death was so—called "honour", based alongside coercive control and jealousy. kashif anwar — fawziyah's partner — was convicted and received a minimum

sentence of 20 years, although he intends to appeal the ruling. here's yasminara. fawziyah was a beautiful soul. she was a gift to mankind. perfect in every way. an angel on earth. kind, generous and would do anything for anybody. wore her heart on her sleeve. the most perfect daughter. fawziyahjaved, a solicitor, was married to kashif anwar, an optical assistant, in an islamic ceremony on the 25th of december 2020. the first time that we met him, thought he was a polite, well—mannered young person. when did you start realising that things weren't right for fawziyah

in her marriage? a few months after the marriage, fawziyah, although she was one of them people that was always upbeat and smiling, i could tell as a mother, something wasn't quite right. slowly, slowly, she started telling me. she told me how abusive that he was. three months after the wedding, anwar knocked fawziyah unconscious in a cemetery. at around the same time, he put a pillow over her face and punched her in the head. he also withdrew £12,000 from her bank account while she was sleeping. obviously, i was encouraging fawziyah to leave and she was, "i am going to leave him. "i'm buying my time. "i know what i'm doing." and one of the things that she was trying to do was to get the money back that he'd stolen from her, which i had to go along with. fawziyah was planning to leave, wasn't she? she was. she'd contacted divorce lawyers

to get the ball rolling to get a divorce, because he always said, "i'm never going to divorce you". she'd also made voice recordings of him where he's been threatening and abusive towards her. so obviously, that was all evidence how he was treating her. fawzia went to the police twice so that there was a record of anwar�*s behaviour, although she didn't want them to intervene at that point. the second police report was made just days before anwar killed her on a weekend away in edinburgh. the couple were captured on cctv heading to the arthur's seat hilltop. after anwar pushed her off, fawziyah was able to tell passers by what happened to her before she died. what was going through your head when you were in court? fawziyah's last words.

"am i going to die?" "is my baby going to die?" them words go round and round my head every single day. alongside the grief and pain. i can't get them words out of my mind. when fawziyah was pushed, you didn't just lose fawziyah. no, no. of course, we lost our unborn grandson as well. two lives have been lost. it's double murder. do you feel like you've got justice for fawziyah? no, because, yeah, he has been convicted, but the fact remains, we don't have fawziyah with us, our lives have been destroyed. it's caused so much destruction. she's not here with us and we're having to push through time.

we're not living any more. we're just existing. during the trial, the court heard some of the secret recordings fawziyah herself had made. what do you think anwar�*s motive was? i think his motive was... honour based. alongside the fact that he was evil. jealous of fawziyah. insecure. when you say honour—based abuse, what do you mean? he used to say to fawziyah, we don't have divorces in our family, we don't divorce. we stay in marriages no matter what.

i mean, even in the recordings, he said to fawziyah, stop behaving like a british woman, meaning, you know, an independent, well—educated young woman. he didn't like that. he didn't like the fact that fawziyah had her own voice, her own opinions. he didn't like that. karma nirvana, the charity supporting yasmin, including prior to fawziyah's death, said that they recognised honour said that they recognised honour abuse as part of fawziyah's abuse as part of fawziyah's lived experience. lived experience. police scotland, who carried out the investigation into fawziyah's murder, told us they did not identify any honour—based abuse, adding that domestic abuse and coercive control were the main factors in this case. so anything that's here that you're probably going to say— belongs to you, you're not taking i anything from here. i believe he does have some control still from prison. he, well, the fact is, i still don't have all

of fawziyah's possessions back. the possessions that i have got back, i've had to fight tooth and nail to get them possessions back. and his parents are honouring that control by not giving all her possessions back to us. and not only that, they are spreading rumours that he is innocent, that fawziyah slipped, that it's nothing to do with their son. they have just added to my pain. the anwar family told us that they had returned all of fawziyah's possessions to the police and to her family. i've known fawziyah since 2010. she had come along to our events with her mother yasmin. she was a smart young woman who just wanted to help people and i think her volunteer work really was a testimony to her passion for socialjustice and she touched the lives of so many people.

it was a shock when we found out about fawziyah's murder, because she was educated, she knew her rights, she knew about violence against women and girls, she volunteered for us, yet she still ended up dead. it just shows you how partners can be so manipulative and controlling and she clearly wanted to get out of the _ relationship and found it very difficult. are there any extra barriers for women of south asian heritage trying to leave abusive relationships? so in muslim communities, the religious divorce is used as a method of coercive control and manipulation, so even when women leave abusive marriages, the husband will try and stop her from moving on with her life and stop her from getting a religious divorce. it is a method of coercive control. this is the first media interview i have done since the murder. i want to raise awareness, you know?

fawziyah, a very intelligent, articulate, strong very educated young woman, she had somewhere to go, let her parents, and she was in the process of coming back home. she was financially very stable so she didn't have to rely on the abuser financially, and this happened to her. it could happen to anybody. i just want to put the message out there, nobody is immune from this type of thing. yasminara khan reporting there. to consider the issues more broadly we're joined by polly harrar who founded the sharan project, an organisation supporting women who have been disowned.

this so—called honour —based violence, how do you define it? tt violence, how do you define it? tit is a very difficult situation to describe because it means different things in different cultures and communities, but ultimately it is an unwritten code of rules of honour, and if you break those rules, then you bring shame to your families. and as a result, you will experience abuse. so it is not homogenous to one particular culture. t5 it abuse. so it is not homogenous to one particular culture.— one particular culture. is it only within islamic— one particular culture. is it only within islamic cultures? - one particular culture. is it only - within islamic cultures? absolutely not. it is across _ within islamic cultures? absolutely not. it is across all _ within islamic cultures? absolutely not. it is across all cultures - not. it is across all cultures across the whole of the world, not just south asian but north african, chinese and traveller communities and beyond, so it is really important to recognise that honour is a code and practice of behaviours that crosses the whole world. and that crosses the whole world. and does it persist _ that crosses the whole world. and does it persist in communities?

would one think that someone who is