i'm helena humphrey. glad you could join me. we start with what has been an extraordinary 2a hours in russia. the head of the wagner mercernary group, yevgeny prigozhin, has left for belarus. prigozhin told his forces to return to their bases earlier to "avoid bloodshed" after negotiations with belarusian leader alexander lu kashenko to end their rebellion against the russian defence ministry. wagner fighters have been leaving the southern city of rostov—on—don according to reports. security had been tightened in moscow, with the mayor telling residents to avoid travelling. all mass outdoor events have been cancelled until 1 july. but russia's tass news agency is now reporting that all restrictions previously imposed on russia's motorways have now been lifted. here you see the wagner leader departing russia for belarus earlier,

following the announcement to cancel the rebellion. prior to that announcement, a huge convoy had been heading towards moscow in what vladimir putin had described, as an attempted mutiny. charges against prigozhin and his wagnerforces will be dropped. president putin's press secretary said that wagner mercenaries who wish to sign a ministry of defence contract can, and fighters who took part in the uprising will not be prosecuted. meanwhile, these are the latest images of locals chanting "wagner" as the troops from the mercenary group were leaving rostov. and here you see tanks boarding trucks and leaving the area. earlier in an audio message posted on telegram, progoshin said the time had come to stand down. here's an english translation of his message. translation: they wanted to disband the wagner. - onjune 23rd, we went out on a justice march. within a day, we were just 200 kilometres away from moscow. during that time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. now the moment has come when the blood can be spilt. therefore, understanding all the responsibility for the fact that russian

blood will be spilt on one of the sides, we're turning our comms back and leaving in the opposite direction to the field camps, according to the plan. with me is barbara starr, former pentagon correspondent at cnn and senior fellow at the usc annenberg center in california. barbara, a truly remarkable for hours with the retreat of prigozhin. do you think this will pause or potentially and fighting between vladimir putin and yevgeny prigozhin? it will in this phase of it, i think. the question will be what comes next, what will putin's ability to prosecute the war in ukraine to prosecute the war in ukraine to make sure that prigozhin doesn't rise up again against him. prigozhin�*s group, the

wagner group, has some 50,000 troops in ukraine according to the russian ministry of defence. so it is still an entity that vladimir putin may have to deal with. the other thing that is beginning to emerge, we have talked about the us needs and the allies need intelligence about what happened and what will happen now, but there is increased reporting that indicates the us and the allies had some indication that prigozhin was up indication that prigozhin was up to something, that he was stockpiling ammunition, weapons, that he was planning something that was very worrisome, the us didn't know exactly what, so there was some understanding that something was about to happen. now they have to figure out with these steps announced by moscow and belarus, what happens next. but the administration did seem a little surprise. do you think thatis little surprise. do you think that is concerning? i little surprise. do you think that is concerning?- little surprise. do you think that is concerning? i think it

is an acknowledgement - that is concerning? i think it is an acknowledgement thati that is concerning? i think it l is an acknowledgement that is much intelligence as they think they might have, which is what they might have, which is what they thought, with vladimir putin, it is going to be very difficult. he is very isolated and doesn't confide in a lot of people. he was somewhat estranged, if you will, from his own military high command in recent days, so nobody really knew what his thinking was, and to take prigozhin at his word would have been a very problematic enterprise, given his record and who hears. so this was an incredibly tough intelligence challenge. i don't think they knew with certainty that any of this was going to happen. that any of this was going to ha en. ~ ., ., that any of this was going to hauen. ~ ., ., ., happen. with all of that in mind, happen. with all of that in mind. we _ happen. with all of that in mind, we know— happen. with all of that in mind, we know today - happen. with all of that in mind, we know today that i happen. with all of that in - mind, we know today that joe mind, we know today thatjoe biden, defence secretary austin, antony blinken, secretary of state, have been speaking to allies about these events. how do you think that the us will react to this? i think the bug administration is going to stay out of it publicly. they don't want to give vladimir putin any excuse

for saying that the us is getting involved in russia's — what he sees as internal russian affairs. there won't be any public moves, i don't think, but caveat, none of us really — this has been — most predictions are likely to be wrong. i think that right now the major effort is to gather as much intelligence as possible, whether it is satellite imagery, radar, eavesdropping on conversations out of the kremlin, find out who is saying what to whom and what may be happening next so they can come to some judgements about where vladimir putin really stands now. easy we can? how we can dizzy? what ou think we can? how we can dizzy? what you think their _ we can? how we can dizzy? what you think their assessment - we can? how we can dizzy? what you think their assessment will be? you think they will see this potentially as an opportunity for ukraine on the battlefield or do you think there will also be looking at this, nato allies saying this is potentially and actually

very dangerous moment in this war? to make if you don't know what is only prudent is going to do next, you will want to move cautiously.— to do next, you will want to move cautiously. the advice you ukraine to _ move cautiously. the advice you ukraine to be _ move cautiously. the advice you ukraine to be very _ move cautiously. the advice you ukraine to be very aware - move cautiously. the advice you ukraine to be very aware that i ukraine to be very aware that they don't really know what putin will do next and if putin's track record six, he will lash out militarily and will lash out militarily and will lash out at ukraine. there will lash out at ukraine. there will be some concern about whether there is a need to bolster nato's eastern flank, which buts up against ukraine and russia, just in case putin makes any moves. that is a very typical response by the us and the allies. it doesn't seem likely that vladimir putin will move quickly to do that, though, but again, where were we 48 hours ago? i don't think either you or i could have predicted any of this. certainly not. went to have your analysis, certainly not. went to have youranalysis, barbara certainly not. went to have your analysis, barbara starr. thank you. your analysis, barbara starr. thank vom— your analysis, barbara starr.

thank yon-— let's look back at the past 24 hours. early friday, prigozhin criticised the war in ukraine, launching a rent naming —— questioned the war in ukraine, launching a rant blaming russian defence minister sergei shoigu for the war in ukraine, claiming he did it to gain military honours. prigozhin called for an armed rebellion, vowing to "march forjustice" and accuses the kremlin of hitting his troops with a missile strike on friday. in moscow, security is stepped up as prigozhin takes rostov—on—don. saturday, prigozhin declares 25,000 of his troops have crossed the border from ukraine in the early hours of the morning. a video appeared online showing prigozhin inside russia's southern military headquarters. russian president vladimir putin denounced the "criminal adventure" and warned of punishments in a tv address. over the course of the day, wagner forces make

progress up the m4 motorway towards moscow, seizing military facilities in voronezh. just hours ago, prigozhin said on his telegram channel that he has agreed to stop the movement of his troops, turning them around from their route to moscow. belarus reveals its leader, alexander lu kashenko, had been holding talks with prigozhin and putin had agreed to the conversation and a deal is struck. russian state media reports that prigozhin will leave for belarus, and that criminal charges against him and his troops will be dropped. joining me to discuss this further is former us ambassador to ukraine, bill taylor. ambassador, welcome back to the program. we spoke last night as events were begining to unfold. at that time, you said this is very serious for putin, and he could be in trouble. since then, prigozhin's man, we have seen them retreat. is vladimir putin still in trouble? he seen them retreat. is vladimir putin still in trouble?- putin still in trouble? he is certainly — putin still in trouble? he is certainly diminished. - putin still in trouble? he is certainly diminished. he i putin still in trouble? he is certainly diminished. he is| certainly diminished. he is certainly diminished. he is certainly diminished. he is certainly diminished. both sides, putin and prigozhin make statements that indicated that they were up for a fight. you

have reported both of those. putin said this is treason and he is going to crush them. and prigozhin said that all the ministry of defence was doing was killing russians and there was killing russians and there was no reason for vladimir putin's invasion in the first place. so they were both staking out strong positions and they both backed down. they both backed down today. neither one wanted to have the real fight, it looks like so the compromise was what we saw him today. compromise was what we saw him toda . �* ., ., today. i'm wondering, though, if they did _ today. i'm wondering, though, if they did appear _ today. i'm wondering, though, if they did appear to _ today. i'm wondering, though, if they did appear to back - if they did appear to back down, about the optics and what that might lead to in this, because you said that the russians are supposed to be fighting the ukrainians and they might be distracted, those soldiers might even run. what do you think that these latest developments, these latest optics mean for vladimir putin's army? i

optics mean for vladimir putin's army?— optics mean for vladimir putin's arm ? ~ , ., , putin's army? i think his army has been _ putin's army? i think his army has been shaken. _ putin's army? i think his army has been shaken. they - putin's army? i think his army has been shaken. they have l putin's army? i think his army - has been shaken. they have been shaken by this mutiny, by one of their best forces, one of the best units, the prigozhin wagner group was one of the toughest ones. they did grinding work but they did effective work, in bakhmut, as we know, and they were pulled off line. prigozhin pulled the wagner group of the line too much north towards moscow. it's a though they might be going back to the south. they haven't gone back into ukrainian. all to say that the russian forces are still weaker, today, that they were two days ago. russian forces in ukraine, trying to defend that long line of lake 600 miles, 900 kilometres, that is a long line for them to defend, and they have fewer people to do it, and their morale is lower because they have seen this chaos in the

kremlin. have seen this chaos in the kremlin-— have seen this chaos in the kremlin. , ~ ., , kremlin. sorry, ambassador, but with all of this _ kremlin. sorry, ambassador, but with all of this in _ kremlin. sorry, ambassador, but with all of this in mind, _ with all of this in mind, potentially diminished morale, the fact that these troops haven't yet gone back what could this essentially been on the battlefield for you ukraine? how could they take this moment to capitalise, and also do they have what they need to do so? we also do they have what they need to do so?— also do they have what they need to do so? we will see if they have — need to do so? we will see if they have what _ need to do so? we will see if they have what they - need to do so? we will see if they have what they need - need to do so? we will see if they have what they need to | need to do so? we will see if i they have what they need to do so. if they succeed, if they break through the line, and they then exploit that breakthrough in the russian rare, then they will know they have what they needed. we should give them more and make sure we have given them everything they need. but you askedif everything they need. but you asked if there is an opportunity. there is. the russians, as we said, are weaker. they are demoralised. ukrainians are emboldened and pleased that their enemy is in disarray and the ukrainians have been looking for

weaknesses up and down the line, preparing their new brigades, newly equipped, newly trained, ready to go, those are just — the timing is really good for the ukrainians because even before this craziness of the last day, ukrainians were mounting or about to mount or about to commit their main forces into this counteroffensive. so they are in a good position to explode. so how long do you think it will be before we see some potential successes and gains? i would say weeks. i would say weeks. certainly the summer we will see those potential gains. and what about for vladimir putin. he said to these wagner troops that they won't necessarily be punished or them won't be repercussions, and has asked them to sign up with his forces. we don't know how that will play out right now. ultimately, do you think that putin can succeed on the

battlefield without those wagner troops?- battlefield without those wagner troops? over the long-term. _ wagner troops? over the long-term, he _ wagner troops? over the long-term, he probably i wagner troops? over the . long-term, he probably can. long—term, he probably can. there are a lot of russians. there are a lot of russians. there are a lot of russians. there are 140 million russians. he has a lot of russians to pull in to draft, but it will take time. it will take a long time to round them up. it will take a long time to train them. it will take a long time to equip them. they have lost a lot of equipment at these battles. so over the long—term, putin, yes, can regenerate those forces. that is why the ukrainians need — and they know they need — to move now. it they need — to move now. if you're talking about regenerating the forces, what does this mean for people still in russia right now? does this mean more draconian laws, drafts, further crackdowns? it absolutely does. it absolutely does. people say that the crackdowns so far are as bad as

people can remember in living memory. that is the oppression right now, the control, that putin has over the country is firmer now, is harsher now, that it was during soviet times. as you say, it will only get worse. if he has to institute the draft again, another mobilisation, a larger mobilisation than last time, even last time he had trouble getting his 300000 and more than a million left the country. so he has problems but he can do that. there is a large pool of russians that he can draft into his army overtime. it take time. it can draft into his army overtime. it take time. if we contemplate _ overtime. it take time. if we contemplate for _ overtime. it take time. if we contemplate for a _ overtime. it take time. if we contemplate for a moment, | overtime. it take time. if we | contemplate for a moment, a ratio without burden, would that mean for the country? would that lead to some kind of political vacuum? what could we then bubble up?—

then bubble up? yes, after putin, it — then bubble up? yes, after putin, it could _ then bubble up? yes, after putin, it could get - then bubble up? yes, after putin, it could get worse i then bubble up? yes, afterj putin, it could get worse or then bubble up? yes, after. putin, it could get worse or it could go into chaos, as you said. it is unlikely to get better but it could get worse. the chaos could be the scenario for a while, probably a putin were to leave, one way or another, the prime minister would take over, not a strong leader and there would be continued to be jockeying, leader and there would be continued to bejockeying, we remember when stalin died. this is likely what would happen, so it would be a difficult time, a time of troubles for the russians but again, the ukrainians would have an opportunity, a great opportunity, a great opportunity to force them to the negotiating table, to push the negotiating table, to push the russians out of ukraine, thatis the russians out of ukraine, that is a scenario, and to force the new government to negotiate. force the new government to negotiate-— negotiate. very briefly if you don't mind. _ negotiate. very briefly if you don't mind, we _ negotiate. very briefly if you don't mind, we have - negotiate. very briefly if you don't mind, we have seen i negotiate. very briefly if you | don't mind, we have seen one cracked come to the fore here

with prigozhin. could we see other cracks, other forms of dissent rise up in russia right now, do you think? it is dissent rise up in russia right now, do you think?— now, do you think? it is not impossible. _ now, do you think? it is not impossible, helen, - now, do you think? it is not impossible, helen, not- impossible, helen, not impossible. more beyond the right them a lot, the oppression of the russian people, nibali is not getting out of jail. people, nibali is not getting out ofjail. the other opposition is outside of the country, so you don't see it from the other side, you see it from the other side, you see it from the other side, you see it from the right so that is where we are likely to see that. thank you, bill taylor, greg pleasure to have you want. this let's take a closer look at the man who called for the rebellion, yevgeny prigozhin, and the group of mercenary soldiers he leads, known as the wagner group. 0ur security correspondent gordon corera has more details. translation: yevgeny prigozhin outside russian military headquarters

——heaquarters in rostov—on—don this morning, boasting his wagner group have taken it without firing a shot. butjust who is this man challenging russia's leaders? prigozhin began as a criminal from st petersburg. after leaving jail, he began selling hotdogs but then graduated to running expensive restaurants. he caught the attention of russia's leader, leading him to be known as putin's chef. he catered to world leaders when they visited, even america's president, but also became rich from lucrative military contracts. about a decade ago, he began to carry out operations around the world on behalf of the kremlin, even interfering in america's 2016 election. he catered to world leaders when they visited, even america's president, but also became rich from lucrative military contracts. but prigozhin became best known as head of wagner, an often—brutal private mercenary group working to the kremlin's agenda. it has been operating across the middle east and africa, including syria, libya and mali, allowing putin to project power without being directly involved. but it is in the last year in ukraine that it has really come to the fore.

as putin's plans for a quick victory faded, prigozhin's forces undertook some of the heaviest fighting. some of them came from prisons. here's prigozhin recruiting them in return for an early release. laying flowers on the graves of those who died helped him cultivate an image in russia as a nationalist hero, one who would fight harder in ukraine. but battles like the one in bakhmut have led to growing tension between prigozhin and the regular russian military leadership. he angrily accused its leaders, like the defence minister shoigu and military chief gerasimov, of using his men as cannon fodder and denying them vital supplies. prigozhin claimed russia's soldiers had been let down by their leaders and his attacks on them became increasingly outspoken. it was clear one side or other would have to move, bringing what had been a simmering crisis to the boil.

i'm joined now by former deputy secretary general of nato, rose gottemoeller. thank you so much forjoining us here on bbc news. l thank you so much for “oining us here on bbc news.i thank you so much for “oining us here on bbc news. i want to beain b us here on bbc news. i want to begin by getting _ us here on bbc news. i want to begin by getting your— us here on bbc news. i want to begin by getting your thoughts| begin by getting your thoughts on what we have just witnessed unfold in russia over the past 24 hours. unfold in russia over the past 24 hem-— 24 hours. we have seen the putin regime _ 24 hours. we have seen the putin regime become i 24 hours. we have seen the putin regime become more| 24 hours. we have seen the i putin regime become more and more brutal with different parts of the government contradicting each other, with the attacks by the wagner head, prigozhin, as your correspondence was just reporting, so it is clear that a lot of people were becoming more and more worried about the future of this regime, putin himself very isolated. i have noticed in the last couple of weeks he has been handing out medals and reading endorsements at, and evenjust as medals and reading endorsements at, and even just as this was all unfolding he was essentially talking about the

denazification of ukraine, in his normal way, in such a way that made me think that he himself had become somewhat detached from the reality of the situation and the dire circumstances he has been in. while this action is clearly woken up vladimir putin, given the strong speech he gave abreaction last night, so but it is a brutal situation and a situation that i think could continue to change very, very rapidly. bill taylor is right, this is the first phase that could lead to very many additional phases. could lead to very many additional hases. ~ , ., additional phases. when you say it could unfold _ additional phases. when you say it could unfold and _ additional phases. when you say it could unfold and escalate i it could unfold and escalate very, very rapidly and you say it is brittle do you fancy potentially a regime that potentially a regime that potentially breaks apart? i think that is quite possible. i think that is quite possible. i think there are others who can clearly step forward. and i think it is important to recollect that russia is really held together by profoundly talented technocrats and experts who really know what

they are doing, for example running the central bank in that type of thing so it is not as if the government is totally out of control. they have been quite skilled actually at managing the dire economic crisis that has come about because of the thick layer of sanctions applied to russia since the invasion of ukraine, so there are a lot of talented people engaged and involved in governing the country. the question will be who gains the ultimate authority for decision—making and how is he unable to stabilise that authority and carry the country forward? at the moment, of course, putin is very much still in power, we can't say he will be departing anytime soon but i also agree with all of your commentators who say his position has been weakened by this crisis. i position has been weakened by this crisis. ., , this crisis. i think it is interesting _ this crisis. i think it is interesting you i this crisis. i think it is interesting you say i this crisis. i think it is i interesting you say there this crisis. i think it is - interesting you say there are others that could potentially step forward in russia, who? who do you think those people are? ~ �* ., , ., are? well, i'm not sure that amon: are? well, i'm not sure that among the _ are? well, i'm not sure that among the technocratic i are? well, i'm not sure that i among the technocratic class, that would be the immediate group, that would be called

upon, but it depends. clearly there is the prime minister, again, bill taylor mentioned him, he would be the normal line of succession but i would expect somebody putin's l, 70 stepping forward from security service such as nikolai budjerah slabb, the national security adviser, a lot of history in running security service in russia so we must expect someone of putin's elk, if he was to be a replaced for whatever reason, only as time has gone on and with the necessity of governing the country and getting from out of the crisis they are in the by ending the war in ukraine and pulling richmond river back and begin the process of really does make pulling russian troops back, and atoning for their sins in troops back, and atoning for theirsins in ukraine troops back, and atoning for their sins in ukraine and paying for the reconstruction there. at that point i think we may see the turn to moreover technocratic leadership.-

technocratic leadership. what kind of conversations - technocratic leadership. what kind of conversations based l technocratic leadership. what kind of conversations based on the events we have seen in the past 24 hours do you think that jens stoltenberg is having right now? i jens stoltenberg is having right now?— jens stoltenberg is having riaht now? ~ , , right now? i think he is very keen on _ right now? i think he is very keen on all— right now? i think he is very keen on all of— right now? i think he is very keen on all of the _ right now? i think he is very keen on all of the nato i right now? i think he is very | keen on all of the nato allies are very keen right now to stay in close communication among each other. they are of course continuing to assist in the support of ukraine and the support of ukraine and the support of ukraine and the support of the ukrainian defensive that is now going on, but they will also be very keenly aware of the potential for uncertainty with regard to the defence of europe and any kind of even accidental action that could take place against nato territory, they would be very keen to be prepared to defend against that and ensure that it did not lead to escalation. there are a lot of russian units at there right now, we're not sure what their command and control structure is and there are not only the regular russian armed forces but militias that are attached to large corporations like gas

bomber. so i think not knowing exactly where a potential publication may come nato territory there would be a clear effort to readiness —— have readiness against such, i'm not lindesay attack but is below from the ukraine conflict and nato would want to ensure its defence but of course prevent escalation. should we exect prevent escalation. should we exoect to _ prevent escalation. should we exoect to see _ prevent escalation. should we expect to see more _ prevent escalation. should we expect to see more bolstering of security on the eastern flank in coming days? i of security on the eastern flank in coming days? i think we would — flank in coming days? i think we would have _ flank in coming days? i think we would have seen - flank in coming days? i think we would have seen that i flank in coming days? i think i we would have seen that anyway pursuant to what going on in reparation for the new summit coming up of nato troops, continuing their training and there is a reinforcement inside nato anyway but i think they will be plans, four trips to be ready should they be any spillover or unexpected action from what is ensuing from what is occurring in russia.— is occurring in russia. deputy secretary _

is occurring in russia. deputy secretary general _ is occurring in russia. deputy secretary general - _ is occurring in russia. deputy secretary general - former i secretary general — former deputy secretary general of nato, rose gottemoeller, great to get your thoughts. thank you so much. a ., to get your thoughts. thank you so much. a ~' ,, for more information happening in russia right now, please let head to the website and our app where the team is of course tracking every development with all background, analysis and of course the latest bbc reporting. i am course the latest bbc reporting. iam helen course the latest bbc reporting. i am helen humphrey in washington. much more coming up in washington. much more coming up for you at the top of the hour. thank you for your company, see you soon. goodbye for now. hello. a hot night out there, very humid indoors, too, after what was a hot day. on saturday in the south east of england, temperatures hit 29 degrees celsius. and sunday is going to be hotter still. again, humid for many of us, and there's a chance of storms, particularly across northern parts of the uk.

now, some of the storms could be pretty nasty with frequent lightning, hail and gusty winds. this is what's happening right now. there is a cold frontjust to the west of our neighbourhood. it is going to sweep in some fresher conditions. but ahead of it, we've got that plume of heat and also moisture, that humidity coming in from the southern climes. so there is a change on the way. this is what it looks like early in the morning on sunday. those temperatures still holding around the high teens. this is where the weather front is, it's ready to sweep across the uk. not everybody�*s going to get the rain. the rain will fall in northern ireland during the morning. then the skies will brighten up, and it'll be a fresh afternoon. and then that rain will reach scotland and parts of northern england. there'll be a few showers in wales too, but it's across northern and eastern scotland, the north—east of england and all the way down to lincolnshire. this is where we're likely to see the heaviest downpours with the hail and the gusty winds, as well. south of that, that's where we'll have the heat and humidity. in london and the south east,

temperatures could hit 32 degrees celsius, but for the west, it's going to be fresher, plymouth, 23 celsius, about that in cardiff, and i think a very pleasant i9 degrees celsius in belfast in the sunny spells and maybe the odd shower. and during the course of sunday evening, still some showers there across parts of scotland and northern england. but for many of us, a very pleasant end to the day. let's have a look at monday now. we're sort of in between weather systems. 0ne weather front clears away, another one waiting in the wings out towards the west of the uk. so the morning starts off sunny on monday. through the course of the afternoon, clouds will bubble up. there'll be a few showers here and there, particularly across northern parts of the uk, but essentially a very pleasant day, a lot fresher, too. you really will notice the difference across many parts of england. in london, from the 32 celsius, more like 23 degrees celsius. and if we have a look at the weather for the week ahead, you can see the weather is looking a little bit mixed every now and then, but still pretty warm in the south, temperatures low or mid 20s. the high teens expected

further north. bye— bye.

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