historic day. what an astonishing 24 hours, i historic day. what an astonishing 24 hours. i mean. _ historic day. what an astonishing 24 hours, i mean, at— historic day. what an astonishing 24 hours, i mean, at one _ historic day. what an astonishing 24 hours, i mean, at one point- historic day. what an astonishing 24 hours, i mean, at one point we - historic day. what an astonishing 24 | hours, i mean, at one point we were talking about this rebellion, the spectre of civil war in russia, and then suddenly, this deal. meanwhile, then suddenly, this deal. meanwhile, the russian authorities _ then suddenly, this deal. meanwhile, the russian authorities say _ then suddenly, this deal. meanwhile, the russian authorities say that - the russian authorities say that some red restrictions remain in place in moscow and the m4 motorway. the threat of a major uprising against the russian president vladimir putin appears to have receded, after a deal was struck which enabled the rebellious leader to retreat. yevgeny prigozhin, the head of the wagner mercenary group, pictured here leaving the russian city of, is going into exile in belarus after abandoning his advance on moscow. and with wagner forces firing their guns into the sky, and cheers from the watching

public, his troops also departed the city, just hours after they controlled a military building, with further wagner troops moving towards moscow. travelling north on the m4 motorway, passing the city of vuronezh and were spotted as far north as the region, which is around 300 miles south of moscow. then, in the early evening, prigozhin announced that he had agreed to stop the advance. tensions had been building between mr prigozhin and russia's military leadership for some time, over their approach to the war in ukraine. sarah rainsford reports. mutineers cheered as heroes. cheering. this crowd are shouting "wagner", the name of the mercenary group that vladimir putin had accused of treason only hours earlier. the fighters were clearly among friends here. just one bizarre scene in a day of high drama. the wagner group had rolled into rostov on saturday morning, placing tanks on city streets

and taking over a military command post for the ukraine war. there, wagner's boss was filmed haranguing senior military figures. in extraordinary scenes, yevgeny prigozhin demanded the downfall of russia's defence minister and its chief of staff, accusing them of mishandling the war on ukraine. soon came reports of wagner troops heading north, though there were very few images. this sign points to voronezh, that's already halfway to moscow. in the same region, a driver sees a roadblock. he says wagner have smashed through. further north still, a man finds his way home blocked by a trench dug into the tarmac. this march on moscow turned all eyes on yevgeny prigozhin. he's a former convict who became a chef to vladimir putin,

but he did a lot of the kremlin�*s dirty work to from disinformation by running troll farms to covert fighting in syria and ukraine. since the full scale invasion, prigozhin had been recruiting soldiers from prisons for some of the fiercest battles, but he'd also been feuding openly with russia's defence ministry. and this weekend, that dispute exploded. vladimir putin declared the mutiny a betrayal, a stab in the back. but it was a problem that he himself had allowed to get out of hand. as a counter—terror operation was launched to defend the capital the potential for clashes was clear. and then as suddenly as it began, it was over. prigozhin said his men were turning round to avoid bloodshed and belarus announced it helped negotiate that. late last night, pictures

emerged of the man himself leaving for belarus as part of the climbdown deal. yevgeny prigozhin�*s next steps are unclear like so much in this story. vladimir putin didn't win the showdown. he just survived it. for once, the russian strongman looked weak. sarah rainsford, bbc news. let's look back at what's actually happened over the past couple of days. early on friday, yevgeny prigozhin questioned the war in ukraine and the role of the russian defence minister sergei shoigu, claiming he did it to gain military honours. prigozhin called for an armed rebellion and accused the kremlin of hitting his troops with a missile strike on friday. in moscow, security was stepped up as wagner took rostov—on—don. on saturday, prigozhin declared 25,000 of his troops had crossed the border

from ukraine in the early hours of the morning. the russian president vladimir putin denounced this action as a "criminal adventure" and warned of punishments in a tv address. over the course of the day, wagner forces made progress towards moscow, seizing military facilities in voronezh. the hours later, prigozhin said that he had agreed to "stop" the movement of his troops, turning them around from their route to moscow belarus revealed its leader, alexander lukashenko, had been holding talks with prigozhin and putin. russian state media reported that prigozhin is leaving for belarus, and criminal charges against him and his troops would be dropped. earlier, our russia editor steve rosenberg gave us his assessment of what's happened in russia in the past day. what an astonishing 24 hours. at one point we were talking about rebellion, the spectre of civil war in russia and then this deal, this resolution was announced and de—escalation. it's almost like a tornado has swept

through, leaving debris. what can we conclude from all of this? first of all, vladimir putin. he does not emerge from this looking particularly strong, you would have to say. if you look at the ease with which the wagner mercenary group swept in to rostov on don and took the military sites, and moved towards moscow, that is quite astonishing. mr putin had come on national television yesterday with strong words, talking about treachery and betrayal. and russia being stabbed in the back. and yet by the end of the day all charges were dropped against yevgeny prigozhin and you are free to go to belarus! so that is regarding vladimir putin. also, many people have been

wondering whether yevgeny prigozhin with his private army could be a threat to the russian authorities, so perhaps there is a question about the judgment of the kremlin? 0n the other hand, let's look at yevgeny prigozhin, what does this tell us about the chief of wagner? it tells us you can have a private army and you can mutiny and you can set the goal of toppling the military leadership of russia and at the end of the day, you are free, you are a free man. all right, he has to go to belarus as a result of the deal with the kremlin but think back to the 1990s, 1991, a coup against mikhail gorbachev, what happened to the leaders? they were all put in prison. back in '93, a rebellion against boris yeltsin, the leaders were put in prison. after this armed mutiny

in russia, what has happened to yevgeny prigozhin? off you go to belarus as a free man. that is quite interesting. also interesting is how he was cheered apparently by some of the crowds in rostov on don last night as wagner fighters pulled out of the city so that will have buoyed up yevgeny prigozhin, i think. in kyiv, the ukrainian president, volodymyr zelensky, said the wagner mutiny was a clear sign of weakness in the kremlin. meanwhile, ukrainian forces have been pushing to recapture some of the territory invaded by russia, including settlements in the eastern donetsk region, and the southern region of zaporizhzhia, but progress has been slow. fighting is also continuing around the eastern city of bakhmut, most of which is still under russian control, after prolonged fighting, and this is where the wagner group have suffered heavy losses. earlier i spoke to our correspondent, andrew harding, who's in the donbas region of ukraine. is really is business as usual

here is more incoming fire overnight from russian forces, in zaporizhzhia, further south, continuing. and, we know accounts from ukraine, forces further north, some progress made. here, near bakhmut, also, ukrainian forces reporting that they are making progress. so, if you like, the war goes on regardless of what chaos there may or may not be, and what aftershocks there may be in russia and amongst the military. but, clearly, at the same time, ukrainian officials, particularly military planners, are engaged in this massive counteroffensive which is building up now with many, many forces, extra forces, thousands more men and western weapons, poised to enter the front lines, and to start breaking through the front line.

they are going to be watching closely for any signs of opportunity presented by the chaos within the russian military, within the wagner group, who of course, pulled out of those front line some time ago to go back and try to make that extraordinary march towards moscow. well they now return to the front, what is going to happen? will there be any invasions of low morale, of infighting, that the ukrainians could exploit in the days and weeks to come. lets speak now to matthew sussex. he's a a senior fellow at the centre for defence research at the australian defence college and joins me now from canberra. what happened yesterday and what will its impact to be? it is what happened yesterday and what will its impact to be?— will its impact to be? it is quite extraordinary, _ will its impact to be? it is quite extraordinary, even _ will its impact to be? it is quite extraordinary, even by - will its impact to be? it is quite extraordinary, even by the - will its impact to be? it is quite - extraordinary, even by the standards normally set by russian politics which tend towards the extreme. you

have an individual who has been close to vladimir putin, venerated by state media as a hero of the russian federation. effectively calling for an armed rebellion saying on telegram that russia deserves a different president. and really challenging the centre and the kremlin in a way that has not been done before. to see him escape with little more than a rap over the knuckles, exile to belarus where presumably he will continue to have control over wagner's extensive operations in africa, is with the aquatics surprising and an indication that vladimir putin has been fundamentally enfeebled by what yevgeny prigozhin has done. the? yevgeny prigozhin has done. they have allowed _ yevgeny prigozhin has done. they have allowed them _ yevgeny prigozhin has done. they have allowed them deniability and an almost arms reach level of force

which, at times, from the moscow perspective, has been a strength but thatis perspective, has been a strength but that is increasingly seen as a weakness for the level of control in the kremlin. weakness for the level of control in the kremlin-— the kremlin. yes, that is precisely ri . ht. the kremlin. yes, that is precisely right- wagner _ the kremlin. yes, that is precisely right. wagner has _ the kremlin. yes, that is precisely right. wagner has been _ the kremlin. yes, that is precisely right. wagner has been notionally| the kremlin. yes, that is precisely. right. wagner has been notionally a private military company but it is a de facto arm of the russian state and particularly the russian security services. it trains at military defence facilities. it is made up of predominantly, least overseas, former russian military personnel often highly specialised and highly trained and it has a code of conduct which is to advance russian interests everywhere. that ultimately doesn't sound like a private military company at all. it has been used somewhat effectively by vladimir putin to effectively throw some shade on the russian armed forces and their performance.

it seems that, really, what putin has done is create something which is potentially a rival power base to his leadership.— is potentially a rival power base to his leadership. thank you so much for our his leadership. thank you so much for yourtime- _ a little while ago i spoke to lord dannatt, the former british chief of general staff, or head of the army. he told me what he understood of progoizhin's motivations. i think we have to remember that prigozhin's fight ostensibly was not to try and topple putin, but to have a crack at defense minister sergei shoigu and the chief of general staff, valery gerasimov. go back several months when the wagner group was doing the heavy lifting, the heavy fighting and the dying in their attempt to capture bakhmut, prigozhin got progressively more and more angry with shoigu and gerasimov for denying him, as he saw it, the ammunition that his troops needed.

so his venom, if you like, has been most accurately pointed at those two military leaders. and when he yesterday started to move towards moscow, undoubtedly it rattled vladimir putin. i think when we saw him on television yesterday morning, he looked a very worried man when he was talking in terms of an armed mutiny. but if you played that one through, what was prigozhin going to do? was he going to go all the way to moscow and hope that no—one would oppose him and march into the kremlin and topple putin? i don't think he thought he could do that. but what he has done, and therefore turning around was probably the only thing that he could do, he has still put a lot of pressure on those two russian defence leaders. shoigu seems to have disappeared at the present moment. and i think gerasimov, we must also think, is weakened. this is a very bad time for the russian armed forces, when the ukrainian counteroffensive is undoubtedly building up. and we could well see the main breakthrough or break in and breakthrough attempts

by their maneuver brigades — the ones well trained and well equipped with western equipment. that's what we're waiting for and i think we will start to see that quite soon now. live now to our eastern europe correspondent, sarah rainsford, who's been following events from warsaw. what actions will he undertake to show strength? i want to pick up on some comments you shared that vladimir putin does not like betrayal and does not like disloyalty and therefore, the situation where we are hearing that there are going to be no charges against yevgeny prigozhin where the wagnerfighters. what against yevgeny prigozhin where the wagner fighters. what you against yevgeny prigozhin where the wagnerfighters. what you make against yevgeny prigozhin where the wagner fighters. what you make of that? do you think really is going to be the case?— to be the case? well, it is certainly _ to be the case? well, it is certainly what _ to be the case? well, it is certainly what the - to be the case? well, it isj certainly what the kremlin to be the case? well, it is - certainly what the kremlin are saying. they are saying that the case for an armed insurrection has been or will be closed. but there will be no criminal prosecution of yevgeny prigozhin and presumably that means for all of his fighters, too. i mean, i have to sayi that means for all of his fighters, too. i mean, i have to say i was extremely surprised when i heard

that because it is not in character for vladimir putin. it is not in character for the for vladimir putin. it is not in characterfor the legal for vladimir putin. it is not in character for the legal system as a whole in russia which is highly politically controlled. for him to sort of step back like that in such a dramatic raven is already openly defined yevgeny prigozhin as a man who has betrayed him, stabbed him in the back. yes, it is surprising. will it continue? will that remain a commitment? well, i guess it depends what yevgeny prigozhin now gets up to. what exactly is the deal that is being done to secure him his continued freedom? we are told he is heading to belarus, if he is not already there but we have not had that confirmed. we don't know what he is going to do. i don't expect he will dig potatoes or drive a tractor. you want to continue in some capacity as its role in our

—— makea —— make a paramilitary group. how can they operate outside the structures of the russian defence ministry? it is really a the situation with many unknowns. what situation with many unknowns. what does putin do _ situation with many unknowns. what does putin do to _ situation with many unknowns. what does putin do to try _ situation with many unknowns. what does putin do to try to _ situation with many unknowns. what does putin do to try to show an image of strength again? hit back, reduce civil liberties, what will he do in the coming days? he reduce civil liberties, what will he do in the coming days?— reduce civil liberties, what will he do in the coming days? he won't like what has happened _ do in the coming days? he won't like what has happened in _ do in the coming days? he won't like what has happened in any _ do in the coming days? he won't like what has happened in any sense. - do in the coming days? he won't like what has happened in any sense. i i what has happened in any sense. i suspect there will be a kind of, there is always a ratcheting up of there is always a ratcheting up of the hunting out of anyone who might be in any way linked to this betrayal. anyone in the security forces. anyone who did not show sufficient strength and loyalty to vladimir putin will be watching their backs now. generally, then we will see a rallying around fort president putin will portray as the

external threat he constantly talks about of western forces and he believes he is fighting that in ukraine so i think you will try to refocus attention to the fight in ukraine but he has been really quite badly dented by this challenge to his authority very directly.- his authority very directly. thank ou. his authority very directly. thank you- reports _ his authority very directly. thank you. reports from _ his authority very directly. thank you. reports from afp _ his authority very directly. thank you. reports from afp as - his authority very directly. thank you. reports from afp as saying j his authority very directly. thank - you. reports from afp as saying that wagner fighters are leaving southern ukraine. we sell them progressing through out m4 highway. reports that they have left that region. let's bring in our next guest. let's bring in our next guest. i'm joined now by dr sergey radchenko, professor of international relations atjohn hopkins university. it's not common to see allies having such open criticism of putin. how does this impact putin's position?

this could potentially still be disruptive for putin, from moscow? sarah is precisely right to emphasise how cautious we must be at this moment not to give too much credit to the russian pronouncement, belarusian pronouncement. when he turns out we can say, ok, he is there but given the extent of his betrayal of putin, i would certainly if i was yevgeny prigozhin be watching my back at this stage so it is not very clear how he comes out of this intact. whether he will be able to continue his operations, well, much depends on what happens to wagner now because there is the

july the 1st deadline for the subordinating wagner to the russian ministry of defence. one of the reasons that yevgeny prigozhin actually made his move to avoid this happening. now, will this go ahead? will yevgeny prigozhin lose control of wagner? those are the things we'll have to watch out for in the coming days. we'll have to watch out for in the coming deve— coming days. potentially the destabilisation _ coming days. potentially the destabilisation of _ coming days. potentially the destabilisation of mike - coming days. potentially the destabilisation of mike and l coming days. potentially the - destabilisation of mike and wagner have gone away but at the moment in history lingers, the open criticism lingers in the air, too. there is undoubtedly now a weakness to vladimir putin that we have not seen before. the other make there is absolutely no doubt that putin emerges from this weekend in the longer term and if you respect on the history of failed coups in russia and the soviet of 1991 when hardliners staged a coup. they failed after three days but the soviet union collapsed shortly after. another coup which also failed to enter in just a few months the bolsheviks came to power and we had a civil war that lasted for a long time and cost russia millions

of lives so there is a real bad historical precedent here as far as failed coups go and i wonder if putin is worried about this. will he continue to double down on the conflict in ukraine? the continue to double down on the conflict in ukraine?— conflict in ukraine? the bigger auestion conflict in ukraine? the bigger question is _ conflict in ukraine? the bigger question is whether _ conflict in ukraine? the bigger question is whether he - conflict in ukraine? the bigger question is whether he has - conflict in ukraine? the bigger question is whether he has to l conflict in ukraine? the bigger. question is whether he has to go. the next in russia in order to shore up the next in russia in order to shore up his authority. he has basically tighten screws over the last month and years and key dissidents are in prison but he could go much further because obviously has authority has been compromised or he may not do anything and continue drifting down that uncertain pathway towards what seems to be further deterioration of his authority and potential political meltdown in russia. thank ou. thank you. as events developed inside russia, the bbc�*s verify team worked to sift through videos on social media

to track the convoy of wagner vehicles. they are now assessing the aftermath and where it leaves the wagner group. our correspondent, joe inwood, has been working with the team and is in the newsroom with more. it is one of the things everyone has said. we've got to be careful because there is a lot that we don't know. that is what the team have been trying to verify. it has been a busy 36 hours because of this man, yevgeny prigozhin as he was leaving yesterday. the day before that we were trying to track the convoy as it snaked its way up the m4. they then turned back and soak in many ways, the pictures that matter are these ones of yevgeny prigozhin leaving. what we don't know exactly is his location. what is going to be doing when he gets there or whether he will be saved. as it has been suggested, he has angered the man in the kremlin but for now, he has left rostov—on—don. if we go to other pictures, to tell you what we know

and what we are not so certain now. we know that this is a convoy of wagner vehicles leaving rostov—on—don, moving around rostov—on—don, moving around rostov—on—don because what we can say is where it is. we can say where we are going. are they rejoining the fight in ukraine where they go somewhere else? their armoured vehicles and of course, the main battle tanks we have seen on the streets of russia. over the is really interesting. it is this one. this one is from rostov—on—don, and this is the return of the russian police. when you watch through this footage what you can hear is people shouting. there is one voice in the video who shouts they are traitors. so if there is local anger the police that tells us something very interesting although it is worth pointing out that we don't know who these people are. as ever with footage coming out of russia we have to take it with a serious pinch of

salt. their involvement notjust in russia but particularly in africa. they have their tentacles are many places around the world but particularly in places like maori and the central african republic, wagner have been there for many years working for local governments often propping up not necessarily very pleasant or stable governments in those two bases and places elsewhere they are an important part of keeping the local regime in power and are very wealthy. often what they do is exchange the military services for extraction rights and things like diamonds or gold so there is a lot of money that they control there and a lot of men. they have lots of boots on the ground. where they go, who controls those

fighters. they stay or go freelance, does yevgeny prigozhin keep control somehow? there are lots and lots of really important unknowable questions which will be very important notjust for questions which will be very important not just for the questions which will be very important notjust for the conflict in ukraine and russia but for some people and some of the worlds poorest countries. follow that close the year on bbc news. another hot and humid day but changes are afoot in the west. istamens changes are afoot in the west. where the front which _ changes are afoot in the west. where the front which will _ changes are afoot in the west. where the front which will bring _ changes are afoot in the west. where the front which will bring heavy - changes are afoot in the west. where the front which will bring heavy end than we down boys for some during the west of today. the rain is

clearing away into sunshine and showers but fain developing more widely to scotland, parts of the north midlands and it is parts of eastern scotland where we are likely to see thunderstorms later. a lot of rain in a short space of time and flooding disruption possible. a few showers down to the south. many will stay dry. look at that. a hot day. lincolnshire to the south—east. 30-32 lincolnshire to the south—east. 30—32 compared to something fresher in northern ireland. 17—19 is that fresh air starts to wind over. it is not cold air but certainly compared to what we had, you will notice the difference. thunderstorms across parts of north—east scotland clear. temperatures dropping into single figures in rural areas but still not a cold night by any stretch of the

imagination to 14 celsius. a big difference. it will be as humid as it has been. very pleasant with lots of sunshine around to begin with. a bit more cloud bubbling up. many will stay dry for the fog of the day. some muggy air pushing in on tuesday. quite stormy low pressure system will push towards iceland. for us, though, as well as humidity levels lifting we will see lots of cloud. heaviest of central and northern parts. some rain remains. for the west of the week fairly changeable. a lot of cloud and

outbreaks of rain but still feeling warm in their sunnier moments. take care.

any criminal charges. this is bbc news. the headlines... cheering crowds watched the leader of the wagner mercenary group, yevgeny prigozhin, leave the russian city of rostov for belarus. it was only hours after he called off his rebellion against the russian military. the kremlin says he will not face