the kremlin says the mercenaries will not be prosecuted and will be allowed to join the russian army. vladimir putin says he is confident in what he calls russia's special military operation in ukraine in new comments made to russian state tv. some breaking news coming into us here. vladimir putin will take part in a regular russian security council meeting next week. that is vladimir putin taking part in a russian security council meeting next week.

the last day or so has seen an extraordinary turn of events in russia. the russian president vladimir putin has survived an immediate threat to his power after the leader of the wagner mercenary group agreed to end his mutiny against the russian army. yevgeny prigozhin called off his wagner troops�* march to moscow late saturday night after negotiations with putin's ally and belarus�* leader alexander lukashenko. he also agreed to leave russia for belarus, and the kremlin has said it will not pursue punishment against him or wagnerfighters. but there are many questions unanswered about what's happened. to help unpack some of these i'm joined now by a panel of experts. joining me live are vitaly shevchenko, who is from bbc monitoring, jade mcglynn is a researcher at the war studies department at king 5 college london. she's also the author of memory makers: the politics of the past in russia and russia 5 war. she joins us from oxfordshire.

justin crump is a military veteran and chief executive of the risk intelligence firm. sib-line a key question we are getting from viewers on bbc news isjust remind us exactly what is happening in russia right now.— us exactly what is happening in russia right now. there is a certain sense of things _ russia right now. there is a certain sense of things the _ russia right now. there is a certain sense of things the escalating - russia right now. there is a certain sense of things the escalating and l sense of things the escalating and tensions easing in russia. we are seeing reports from various regions in south—western russia of restrictions being lifted, in particular restrictions on traffic, roads being reopened and in rostov—on—don, which is the main city taken by wagner yesterday, the only thing that reminds local residents of the dramatic events yesterday is the tony abbott tarmac

in central parts of the city because of all the tanks that drove up and down those streets yesterday. tomorrow is still going to be a day off in moscow but by and large things seem to be getting back to normal and looking at state television, for example, it seems to be business as usual. at least that is the impression that the kremlin�*s media machine wants to give to its viewers. ~ ., ., viewers. with regard to the kremlin's — viewers. with regard to the kremlin's media _ viewers. with regard to the kremlin's media machine, | viewers. with regard to the | kremlin's media machine, it viewers. with regard to the - kremlin's media machine, it has always portrayed vladimir putin as a man of power, a man in control and of stability. people are then asking why did the wagner group turn against russia, turning against the person who created the group or at least gave it its power? that person who created the group or at least gave it its power?— least gave it its power? that is a ureat least gave it its power? that is a great question. _ least gave it its power? that is a great question. the _ least gave it its power? that is a great question. the problems i least gave it its power? that is a great question. the problems of| least gave it its power? that is a - great question. the problems of the russian _ great question. the problems of the russian military— great question. the problems of the russian military about _ great question. the problems of the

russian military about 2022 - great question. the problems of the russian military about 2022 are - russian military about 2022 are obvious — russian military about 2022 are obvious and _ russian military about 2022 are obvious and they _ russian military about 2022 are obvious and they turned - russian military about 2022 are obvious and they turned to - russian military about 2022 are i obvious and they turned to wagner russian military about 2022 are - obvious and they turned to wagner in particular— obvious and they turned to wagner in particular to — obvious and they turned to wagner in particular to help— obvious and they turned to wagner in particular to help with _ obvious and they turned to wagner in particular to help with their— particular to help with their efforts— particular to help with their efforts when— particular to help with their efforts when they - particular to help with their efforts when they ran - particular to help with their efforts when they ran into. particular to help with their- efforts when they ran into trouble last yeah — efforts when they ran into trouble last year. within _ efforts when they ran into trouble last year. within that, _ efforts when they ran into trouble last year. within that, it - efforts when they ran into trouble last year. within that, it was - last year. within that, it was arguing _ last year. within that, it was arguing about _ last year. within that, it was arguing about the _ last year. within that, it was. arguing about the prosecution last year. within that, it was - arguing about the prosecution of the conflict _ arguing about the prosecution of the conflict yevgeny— arguing about the prosecution of the conflict. yevgeny prigozhin - arguing about the prosecution of the conflict. yevgeny prigozhin has- conflict. yevgeny prigozhin has always — conflict. yevgeny prigozhin has always argued _ conflict. yevgeny prigozhin has always argued that _ conflict. yevgeny prigozhin has always argued that it _ conflict. yevgeny prigozhin has always argued that it was - conflict. yevgeny prigozhin has always argued that it was not l conflict. yevgeny prigozhin has- always argued that it was not being prosecuted — always argued that it was not being prosecuted correctly _ always argued that it was not being prosecuted correctly and _ always argued that it was not being prosecuted correctly and not - always argued that it was not being i prosecuted correctly and not getting on with _ prosecuted correctly and not getting on with the — prosecuted correctly and not getting on with the senior _ prosecuted correctly and not getting on with the senior military— on with the senior military leadership, _ on with the senior military leadership, so— on with the senior military leadership, so you - on with the senior military leadership, so you almosti on with the senior military- leadership, so you almost had two military— leadership, so you almost had two military is— leadership, so you almost had two military is indeed _ leadership, so you almost had two military is indeed rivalry. - leadership, so you almost had two military is indeed rivalry. a - leadership, so you almost had two military is indeed rivalry. a few- military is indeed rivalry. a few weeks — military is indeed rivalry. a few weeks ago. _ military is indeed rivalry. a few weeks ago, within _ military is indeed rivalry. a few weeks ago, within part - military is indeed rivalry. a few weeks ago, within part of- military is indeed rivalry. a few weeks ago, within part of thatl military is indeed rivalry. a few- weeks ago, within part of that power struggle. _ weeks ago, within part of that power struggle. the — weeks ago, within part of that power struggle, the russian— weeks ago, within part of that power struggle, the russian mod _ weeks ago, within part of that powerl struggle, the russian mod demanded that under— struggle, the russian mod demanded that under a _ struggle, the russian mod demanded that under a new— struggle, the russian mod demanded that under a new law, _ struggle, the russian mod demanded that under a new law, the _ struggle, the russian mod demanded that under a new law, the pmc- that under a new law, the pmc contractors, _ that under a new law, the pmc contractors, the _ that under a new law, the pmc contractors, the soldiers - that under a new law, the pmc. contractors, the soldiers working for wagner, _ contractors, the soldiers working for wagner, would _ contractors, the soldiers working for wagner, would have - contractors, the soldiers working for wagner, would have to - contractors, the soldiers working i for wagner, would have tojoin the regular— for wagner, would have tojoin the regular russian _ for wagner, would have tojoin the regular russian military, _ for wagner, would have tojoin the regular russian military, they- for wagner, would have to join the i regular russian military, they would have to _ regular russian military, they would have to accept — regular russian military, they would have to accept contracts, _ regular russian military, they would have to accept contracts, and - regular russian military, they would have to accept contracts, and that l have to accept contracts, and that not only— have to accept contracts, and that not only struck— have to accept contracts, and that not only struck at _ have to accept contracts, and that not only struck at yevgeny- have to accept contracts, and that . not only struck at yevgeny prigozhin plus mike _ not only struck at yevgeny prigozhin plus mike powell— not only struck at yevgeny prigozhin plus mike powell group _ not only struck at yevgeny prigozhin plus mike powell group but- not only struck at yevgeny prigozhinl plus mike powell group but members of the _ plus mike powell group but members of the wagner — plus mike powell group but members of the wagner group, _ plus mike powell group but members of the wagner group, and _ plus mike powell group but members of the wagner group, and that- plus mike powell group but members of the wagner group, and that has. of the wagner group, and that has escalated — of the wagner group, and that has escalated tensions— of the wagner group, and that has escalated tensions over _ of the wagner group, and that has escalated tensions over the - of the wagner group, and that has escalated tensions over the last i escalated tensions over the last weeks. — escalated tensions over the last weeks. and _ escalated tensions over the last weeks. and it— escalated tensions over the last weeks, and it is— escalated tensions over the last weeks, and it is notable - escalated tensions over the last weeks, and it is notable that. weeks, and it is notable that yevgerry— weeks, and it is notable that yevgeny prigozhin's - weeks, and it is notable that yevgeny prigozhin's actions i weeks, and it is notable that - yevgeny prigozhin's actions were quite _ yevgeny prigozhin's actions were quite premeditated, _ yevgeny prigozhin's actions were quite premeditated, had - yevgeny prigozhin's actions were quite premeditated, had built. yevgeny prigozhin's actions were quite premeditated, had built upi quite premeditated, had built up over a _ quite premeditated, had built up over a period _ quite premeditated, had built up over a period of—

quite premeditated, had built up over a period of time, _ quite premeditated, had built up| over a period of time, stockpiling weaponry— over a period of time, stockpiling weaponry and _ over a period of time, stockpiling weaponry and things _ over a period of time, stockpiling weaponry and things like - over a period of time, stockpiling weaponry and things like that. i over a period of time, stockpilingi weaponry and things like that. to what _ weaponry and things like that. to what extent— weaponry and things like that. to what extent it _ weaponry and things like that. to what extent it was _ weaponry and things like that. to what extent it was a _ weaponry and things like that. to what extent it was a gambit - weaponry and things like that. to what extent it was a gambit for. weaponry and things like that. to - what extent it was a gambit for them to overcome — what extent it was a gambit for them to overcome this _ what extent it was a gambit for them to overcome this need _ what extent it was a gambit for them to overcome this need for— what extent it was a gambit for them to overcome this need for them - what extent it was a gambit for them to overcome this need for them to i to overcome this need for them to take on— to overcome this need for them to take on these _ to overcome this need for them to take on these contracts, _ to overcome this need for them to take on these contracts, yevgenyl take on these contracts, yevgeny prigozhin — take on these contracts, yevgeny prigozhin protecting _ take on these contracts, yevgeny prigozhin protecting himself, - prigozhin protecting himself, protecting _ prigozhin protecting himself, protecting his— prigozhin protecting himself, protecting his power- prigozhin protecting himself, protecting his power base, . prigozhin protecting himself, protecting his power base, is prigozhin protecting himself, - protecting his power base, is still unclear, — protecting his power base, is still unclear, but— protecting his power base, is still unclear, but that _ protecting his power base, is still unclear, but that was _ protecting his power base, is still unclear, but that was the - protecting his power base, is still unclear, but that was the genesis protecting his power base, is still. unclear, but that was the genesis of the export— unclear, but that was the genesis of the export reactions _ unclear, but that was the genesis of the export reactions we've - unclear, but that was the genesis of the export reactions we've seen- unclear, but that was the genesis of| the export reactions we've seen over the export reactions we've seen over the weekend~ — the export reactions we've seen over the weekend. find _ the export reactions we've seen over the weekend-— the weekend. and we have had a lot of focus on — the weekend. and we have had a lot of focus on wagner _ the weekend. and we have had a lot of focus on wagner and _ the weekend. and we have had a lot of focus on wagner and yevgeny - of focus on wagner and yevgeny prigozhin, but that is not the only mercenary group being operated in and around russia, is it? he. mercenary group being operated in and around russia, is it?— and around russia, is it? no, it is b far and around russia, is it? no, it is by far the — and around russia, is it? no, it is by far the most — and around russia, is it? no, it is by far the most prominent, - and around russia, is it? no, it is by far the most prominent, but i and around russia, is it? no, it is| by far the most prominent, but all of the oligarchs _ by far the most prominent, but all of the oligarchs have _ by far the most prominent, but all of the oligarchs have built- by far the most prominent, but all of the oligarchs have built their. of the oligarchs have built their own pmc — of the oligarchs have built their own pmc. there _ of the oligarchs have built their own pmc. there is _ of the oligarchs have built their own pmc. there is a _ of the oligarchs have built their own pmc. there is a huge - of the oligarchs have built their. own pmc. there is a huge network working _ own pmc. there is a huge network working to — own pmc. there is a huge network working to a — own pmc. there is a huge network working to a greater— own pmc. there is a huge network working to a greater or _ own pmc. there is a huge network working to a greater or lesser - working to a greater or lesser extent — working to a greater or lesser extent. wagner, _ working to a greater or lesser extent. wagner, as— working to a greater or lesser extent. wagner, as the - working to a greater or lesser . extent. wagner, as the flagship working to a greater or lesser - extent. wagner, as the flagship one, was a _ extent. wagner, as the flagship one, was a big _ extent. wagner, as the flagship one, was a big broblern _ extent. wagner, as the flagship one, was a big problem. yevgeny- extent. wagner, as the flagship one, i was a big problem. yevgeny prigozhin was a big problem. yevgeny prigozhin was the _ was a big problem. yevgeny prigozhin was the most — was a big problem. yevgeny prigozhin was the most outspoken _ was a big problem. yevgeny prigozhin was the most outspoken leader - was a big problem. yevgeny prigozhin was the most outspoken leader of - was a big problem. yevgeny prigozhin was the most outspoken leader of a l was the most outspoken leader of a pm _ was the most outspoken leader of a pm the _ was the most outspoken leader of a pm the rest — was the most outspoken leader of a pmc. the rest have _ was the most outspoken leader of a pmc. the rest have kept— was the most outspoken leader of a pmc. the rest have kept their- was the most outspoken leader of a | pmc. the rest have kept their heads down _ pmc. the rest have kept their heads down more — pmc. the rest have kept their heads down more than _ pmc. the rest have kept their heads down more than he _ pmc. the rest have kept their heads down more than he has _ pmc. the rest have kept their heads down more than he has done. - pmc. the rest have kept their heads . down more than he has done. perhaps there _ down more than he has done. perhaps there is— down more than he has done. perhaps there is a _ down more than he has done. perhaps there is a desire _ down more than he has done. perhaps there is a desire to— down more than he has done. perhaps there is a desire to make _ down more than he has done. perhaps there is a desire to make an— down more than he has done. perhaps there is a desire to make an example i there is a desire to make an example of wagner— there is a desire to make an example ofwagner in— there is a desire to make an example of wagner in particular— there is a desire to make an example of wagner in particular to _ there is a desire to make an example

of wagner in particular to make - there is a desire to make an example of wagner in particular to make the l of wagner in particular to make the others _ of wagner in particular to make the others toe — of wagner in particular to make the others toe the _ of wagner in particular to make the others toe the line. _ of wagner in particular to make the others toe the line. the _ of wagner in particular to make the others toe the line. the very- of wagner in particular to make the others toe the line. the very threati others toe the line. the very threat you get _ others toe the line. the very threat you get when — others toe the line. the very threat you get when you _ others toe the line. the very threat you get when you have _ others toe the line. the very threat you get when you have a _ others toe the line. the very threat you get when you have a large - you get when you have a large independent _ you get when you have a large independent pmc— you get when you have a large independent pmc is— you get when you have a large independent pmc is like - you get when you have a large independent pmc is like this l you get when you have a large . independent pmc is like this that can threaten _ independent pmc is like this that can threaten the _ independent pmc is like this that can threaten the state _ independent pmc is like this that can threaten the state authority, i can threaten the state authority, especially — can threaten the state authority, especially within— can threaten the state authority, especially within such _ can threaten the state authority, especially within such a - can threaten the state authority, | especially within such a fractured structure — especially within such a fractured structure that— especially within such a fractured structure that russia _ especially within such a fractured structure that russia has, - especially within such a fractured structure that russia has, thesel structure that russia has, these rival— structure that russia has, these rival power— structure that russia has, these rival power centres, _ structure that russia has, these rival power centres, and - structure that russia has, these rival power centres, and really i structure that russia has, these i rival power centres, and really that allow _ rival power centres, and really that allow the _ rival power centres, and really that allow the creation _ rival power centres, and really that allow the creation of _ rival power centres, and really that allow the creation of this _ rival power centres, and really that allow the creation of this very - allow the creation of this very strong — allow the creation of this very strong and _ allow the creation of this very strong and threatening - allow the creation of this very strong and threatening one, i allow the creation of this very. strong and threatening one, as allow the creation of this very - strong and threatening one, as we have _ strong and threatening one, as we have seen — strong and threatening one, as we have seen hie _ strong and threatening one, as we have seen-— strong and threatening one, as we have seen. ~ ., , ., have seen. we have been hearing in the last few — have seen. we have been hearing in the last few minutes _ have seen. we have been hearing in the last few minutes comments - have seen. we have been hearing in i the last few minutes comments coming out of russia on state tv saying that vladimir putin will continue to focus on what he calls the special military operation, he will convene a regular meeting of the security council as well. i work viewers and readers of the life page at bbc news website are also wanting to know what else vladimir putin will do as a result of these events. what what else vladimir putin will do as a result of these events.— what else vladimir putin will do as a result of these events. what do we exect to a result of these events. what do we expect to see — a result of these events. what do we expect to see from _ a result of these events. what do we expect to see from him? _ a result of these events. what do we expect to see from him? first - a result of these events. what do we expect to see from him? first of- expect to see from him? first of all, expect to see from him? first of all. we _ expect to see from him? first of all, we expect to see him probably being _ all, we expect to see him probably being a _ all, we expect to see him probably being a lot — all, we expect to see him probably being a lot more present, which ties in with— being a lot more present, which ties in with some — being a lot more present, which ties in with some of the announcements we have just _ in with some of the announcements we have just heard, but the big question—

have just heard, but the big question is, what does he do with the top _ question is, what does he do with the top military brass, the ministry of defence, the head of the armed forces, _ of defence, the head of the armed forces, and — of defence, the head of the armed forces, and i think that will be the key question because one of yevgeny prigozhin's _ key question because one of yevgeny prigozhin's demands has been to change _ prigozhin's demands has been to change those in charge of the so-called _ change those in charge of the so—called special military operation, russia's war on ukraine. however. _ operation, russia's war on ukraine. however. if— operation, russia's war on ukraine. however, if he was to move them, that would — however, if he was to move them, that would weaken his system quite considerably, given the way it is quite _ considerably, given the way it is quite finely balanced, a balance that can — quite finely balanced, a balance that can sometimes be very easily upset _ that can sometimes be very easily upset as— that can sometimes be very easily upset as we saw yesterday on competing interests and managing those _ competing interests and managing those competing interests well, which _ those competing interests well, which is — those competing interests well, which is something vladimir putin has not _ which is something vladimir putin has not been doing of late. and since _ has not been doing of late. and since the — has not been doing of late. and since the start of the full scale invasion — since the start of the full scale invasion. that said, for him to not do anything — invasion. that said, for him to not do anything would be very difficult because _ do anything would be very difficult because of yevgeny prigozhin, as we saw, they're — because of yevgeny prigozhin, as we saw, they're welcome that he got an sendoff— saw, they're welcome that he got an sendoff that he had in rostov—on—don

yesterday _ sendoff that he had in rostov—on—don yesterday or _ sendoff that he had in rostov—on—don yesterday or the early hours of this morning. _ yesterday or the early hours of this morning, yevgeny prigozhin is also a figurehead _ morning, yevgeny prigozhin is also a figurehead for an anger that many in russia _ figurehead for an anger that many in russia feel, and notjust among people — russia feel, and notjust among people but also among certain parts of the _ people but also among certain parts of the elite, that the war is not being _ of the elite, that the war is not being fought correctly. it is not being _ being fought correctly. it is not being fought correctly. it is not being fought in the right way and this has— being fought in the right way and this has tapped into an anti—elitism, a sense of anti—corruption, which for obvious reasons— anti—corruption, which for obvious reasons has— anti—corruption, which for obvious reasons has a strong constituency in russia, _ reasons has a strong constituency in russia, so— reasons has a strong constituency in russia, so it — reasons has a strong constituency in russia, so it is a difficult position _ russia, so it is a difficult position. i think if i were to put myself— position. i think if i were to put myself in — position. i think if i were to put myself in his shoes somewhat reluctantly, i would say that probably the most likely option is going _ probably the most likely option is going to — probably the most likely option is going to be that whatever happens, it is going _ going to be that whatever happens, it is going to be an effort to try to distract _ it is going to be an effort to try to distract by going hard at within the counter offensive. sorry, within fighting _ the counter offensive. sorry, within fighting back against the counter offensive in ukraine. expect to see more _ offensive in ukraine. expect to see more missile impacts on kyiv, not

that they— more missile impacts on kyiv, not that they have been let up, and a focus _ that they have been let up, and a focus on — that they have been let up, and a focus on trying to show that they can succeed in the war. but with morale — can succeed in the war. but with morale as— can succeed in the war. but with morale as it _ can succeed in the war. but with morale as it is and even further destroyed, _ morale as it is and even further destroyed, i think that will be a hard _ destroyed, i think that will be a hard task _ destroyed, i think that will be a hard task. , ., destroyed, i think that will be a hard task-— hard task. there is a question i want to put _ hard task. there is a question i want to put to _ hard task. there is a question i want to put to you _ hard task. there is a question i want to put to you all- hard task. there is a question i want to put to you all in - hard task. there is a question i want to put to you all in a - hard task. there is a question i - want to put to you all in a moment with regards to possible ploys or deception that viewers have asked, but with regards to your role at bbc monitoring, which monitors language services and media around the world, and in your position with regards to russia, we know that for decades vladimir putin and the kremlin has had a vice —like grip, increasingly so, on media. to what degree do you think people beyond rostov—on—don, beyond moscow will be aware of what has been happening in the west of the country in recent days? do you think in the siberian hinterlands, people will be aware of what has taken place? i people will be aware of what has taken place?— people will be aware of what has taken lace? ~ ., , ., ., , taken place? i think anyone with any interest in what _ taken place? i think anyone with any interest in what is _

taken place? i think anyone with any interest in what is going _ taken place? i think anyone with any interest in what is going on - taken place? i think anyone with any interest in what is going on in - interest in what is going on in russia and the world, they will be able to find out what yevgeny prigozhin has been doing over the past couple of days, even though the kremlin's official media machine does not really want the russians to have the complete picture of all the confusing events that have taken place. state tv has been doing what it is used to doing, presenting mainly the good news and downplaying the bad news. if you were to sit down and watch russian tv somewhere in the siberian hinterland, the impression you are going to get is that there is nothing to see here, there has been a bit of trouble but now things are back to the ordinary, do not worry. but russians are still able to access a variety of social

media platforms, even those which are officially banned they are able to access them using various circumvention tools such as virtual private networks, and that is wait the more real conversation is taking place. that is where a lot of questions are being asked and one of those questions is, was this real? was this possibly a this question is being asked both by supporters of vladimir putin and his special military operation and opponents of the kremlin, and one reason for that is because for many years what has been happening in russia has been shrouded in secrecy and time and again, what russian media and officials told their audiences in russia, it turned out to be untrue. let's pick up on that ploy potential that you touched on, because that is

what a lot of our viewers and readers of the website have been asking. could this be a ploy to redeploy yevgeny prigozhin and his wagner forces redeploy yevgeny prigozhin and his wagnerforces into redeploy yevgeny prigozhin and his wagner forces into belarus so they could potentially have another attempt at a lightning strike on kyiv, which lies to the south of the belarusian border. we have seen in recent weeks and months that those wagner fighters have been recent weeks and months that those wagnerfighters have been incredibly effective. they took a long time to succeed in bakhmut but they eventually did it. it succeed in bakhmut but they eventually did it.— succeed in bakhmut but they eventually did it. it would be the most extraordinary _ eventually did it. it would be the most extraordinary way - eventually did it. it would be the most extraordinary way to - eventually did it. it would be the i most extraordinary way to achieve that outcome _ most extraordinary way to achieve that outcome. the _ most extraordinary way to achieve that outcome. the most _ most extraordinary way to achieve i that outcome. the most convoluted way. that outcome. the most convoluted way~ some — that outcome. the most convoluted way~ some of — that outcome. the most convoluted way. some of the _ that outcome. the most convoluted way. some of the supporters- that outcome. the most convoluted way. some of the supporters of- way. some of the supporters of vladimir— way. some of the supporters of vladimir putin, _ way. some of the supporters of vladimir putin, as _ way. some of the supporters of vladimir putin, as this- way. some of the supporters of vladimir putin, as this 3d - way. some of the supporters of. vladimir putin, as this 3d master chess _ vladimir putin, as this 3d master chess player, _ vladimir putin, as this 3d master chess player, which— vladimir putin, as this 3d master chess player, which is— vladimir putin, as this 3d master chess player, which is a - vladimir putin, as this 3d master. chess player, which is a reputation that has— chess player, which is a reputation that has not— chess player, which is a reputation that has not survived _ chess player, which is a reputation that has not survived certainly - chess player, which is a reputation that has not survived certainly at l that has not survived certainly at the last — that has not survived certainly at the last 18 — that has not survived certainly at the last 18 months, _ that has not survived certainly at the last 18 months, it— that has not survived certainly at the last 18 months, it is- that has not survived certainly at the last 18 months, it is a - that has not survived certainly at the last 18 months, it is a very. the last 18 months, it is a very complicated _ the last 18 months, it is a very complicated way— the last 18 months, it is a very complicated way of— the last 18 months, it is a very complicated way of having - the last 18 months, it is a very complicated way of having a l the last 18 months, it is a very- complicated way of having a perch and moving — complicated way of having a perch and moving these _ complicated way of having a perch and moving these people - complicated way of having a perch and moving these people to - complicated way of having a perch i and moving these people to belarus. you could _ and moving these people to belarus. you could do— and moving these people to belarus. you could do it — and moving these people to belarus. you could do it much _ and moving these people to belarus. you could do it much more _ and moving these people to belarus. you could do it much more secretly. you could do it much more secretly and quietly— you could do it much more secretly and quietly and _ you could do it much more secretly and quietly and draw— you could do it much more secretly and quietly and draw less _ you could do it much more secretlyl and quietly and draw less attention. and at— and quietly and draw less attention. and at the _ and quietly and draw less attention. and at the moment, _ and quietly and draw less attention. and at the moment, it— and quietly and draw less attention. and at the moment, it is—

and quietly and draw less attention. | and at the moment, it is completely unclear— and at the moment, it is completely unclear where — and at the moment, it is completely unclear where the _ and at the moment, it is completely unclear where the wagner— and at the moment, it is completely unclear where the wagner fighters . unclear where the wagner fighters are going — unclear where the wagner fighters are going there _ unclear where the wagner fighters are going. there is— unclear where the wagner fighters are going. there is no _ unclear where the wagner fighters are going. there is no indication. are going. there is no indication they— are going. there is no indication they are — are going. there is no indication they are going _ are going. there is no indication they are going to _ are going. there is no indication they are going to belarus. - are going. there is no indication they are going to belarus. and i they are going to belarus. and whether— they are going to belarus. and whether yevgeny _ they are going to belarus. and whether yevgeny prigozhin - they are going to belarus. and| whether yevgeny prigozhin has they are going to belarus. and - whether yevgeny prigozhin has even .one whether yevgeny prigozhin has even gone there _ whether yevgeny prigozhin has even gone there is— whether yevgeny prigozhin has even gone there is a — whether yevgeny prigozhin has even gone there is a separate _ whether yevgeny prigozhin has even gone there is a separate issue. - whether yevgeny prigozhin has even gone there is a separate issue. he l gone there is a separate issue. he has rather— gone there is a separate issue. he has rather disappeared _ gone there is a separate issue. he has rather disappeared at - gone there is a separate issue. he has rather disappeared at the - has rather disappeared at the moment _ has rather disappeared at the moment. that— has rather disappeared at the moment. that is— has rather disappeared at the moment. that is a _ has rather disappeared at the moment. that is a rather- has rather disappeared at the - moment. that is a rather convoluted explanation — moment. that is a rather convoluted explanation but _ moment. that is a rather convoluted explanation but it— moment. that is a rather convoluted explanation but it is— moment. that is a rather convoluted explanation but it is doing _ moment. that is a rather convoluted explanation but it is doing the - explanation but it is doing the rounds— explanation but it is doing the rounds because _ explanation but it is doing the rounds because a _ explanation but it is doing the rounds because a lot- explanation but it is doing the rounds because a lot of- explanation but it is doing the . rounds because a lot of president putin— rounds because a lot of president putin fans — rounds because a lot of president putin fans are _ rounds because a lot of president putin fans are trying _ rounds because a lot of president putin fans are trying to _ rounds because a lot of president putin fans are trying to find - rounds because a lot of president putin fans are trying to find some meaning. — putin fans are trying to find some meaning. and— putin fans are trying to find some meaning. and i_ putin fans are trying to find some meaning, and i think— putin fans are trying to find some meaning, and i think they- putin fans are trying to find some meaning, and i think they are - putin fans are trying to find some . meaning, and i think they are trying too hard _ meaning, and i think they are trying too hard to— meaning, and i think they are trying too hard to find _ meaning, and i think they are trying too hard to find meaning. _ meaning, and i think they are trying too hard to find meaning. if- meaning, and i think they are trying too hard to find meaning. if you - too hard to find meaning. if you wanted — too hard to find meaning. if you wanted to— too hard to find meaning. if you wanted to create _ too hard to find meaning. if you wanted to create that _ too hard to find meaning. if you wanted to create that threat, i too hard to find meaning. if you wanted to create that threat, it| wanted to create that threat, it would — wanted to create that threat, it would be — wanted to create that threat, it would be much _ wanted to create that threat, it would be much easier- wanted to create that threat, it would be much easier to- wanted to create that threat, it would be much easier to move| wanted to create that threat, it - would be much easier to move those troops _ would be much easier to move those troops around — would be much easier to move those troops around in _ would be much easier to move those troops around in smaller _ would be much easier to move those troops around in smaller numbers i would be much easier to move those. troops around in smaller numbers and create _ troops around in smaller numbers and create a _ troops around in smaller numbers and create a surprise _ troops around in smaller numbers and create a surprise. there _ troops around in smaller numbers and create a surprise. there is _ troops around in smaller numbers and create a surprise. there is no - create a surprise. there is no surprise _ create a surprise. there is no surprise if _ create a surprise. there is no surprise if they _ create a surprise. there is no surprise if they are _ create a surprise. there is no surprise if they are very - create a surprise. there is no - surprise if they are very obviously being _ surprise if they are very obviously being moved _ surprise if they are very obviously being moved there. _ surprise if they are very obviously being moved there. that - surprise if they are very obviously being moved there. that said, . surprise if they are very obviously. being moved there. that said, there are two— being moved there. that said, there are two issues — being moved there. that said, there are two issues in— being moved there. that said, there are two issues in belarus, _ being moved there. that said, there are two issues in belarus, one - being moved there. that said, there are two issues in belarus, one for. are two issues in belarus, one for ukraine _ are two issues in belarus, one for ukraine and — are two issues in belarus, one for ukraine and one _ are two issues in belarus, one for ukraine and one for— are two issues in belarus, one for ukraine and one for belarus - are two issues in belarus, one for| ukraine and one for belarus itself. it is ukraine and one for belarus itself. it is a _ ukraine and one for belarus itself. it is a potential— ukraine and one for belarus itself. it is a potentialjumping _ ukraine and one for belarus itself. it is a potentialjumping off- ukraine and one for belarus itself. it is a potentialjumping off point i it is a potentialjumping off point for a _ it is a potentialjumping off point for a new— it is a potentialjumping off point for a new front _ it is a potentialjumping off point for a new front and _ it is a potentialjumping off point for a new front and if _ it is a potentialjumping off point for a new front and if ukraine - it is a potentialjumping off point i for a new front and if ukraine were to break— for a new front and if ukraine were to break through _ for a new front and if ukraine were to break through in _ for a new front and if ukraine were to break through in the _ for a new front and if ukraine were to break through in the south, - for a new front and if ukraine were to break through in the south, onej to break through in the south, one of the _ to break through in the south, one of the final— to break through in the south, one of the final cut _ to break through in the south, one of the final cut of _ to break through in the south, one of the final cut of the _ to break through in the south, one of the final cut of the kremlin - of the final cut of the kremlin holes — of the final cut of the kremlin holes is — of the final cut of the kremlin holes is to— of the final cut of the kremlin holes is to do _ of the final cut of the kremlin holes is to do something - of the final cut of the kremlinl holes is to do something from belarus — holes is to do something from belarus to— holes is to do something from belarus to draw— holes is to do something from belarus to draw attention - holes is to do something from i belarus to draw attention away holes is to do something from - belarus to draw attention away from that area _ belarus to draw attention away from that area but— belarus to draw attention away from that area. but belarusian _ belarus to draw attention away from that area. but belarusian stability i that area. but belarusian stability is a very— that area. but belarusian stability is a very fragile _ that area. but belarusian stability is a very fragile indeed _ that area. but belarusian stability is a very fragile indeed and - that area. but belarusian stability is a very fragile indeed and there i is a very fragile indeed and there is a very fragile indeed and there is a very fragile indeed and there is a need — is a very fragile indeed and there is a need to— is a very fragile indeed and there is a need to prop _ is a very fragile indeed and there is a need to prop up _ is a very fragile indeed and there is a need to prop up the - is a very fragile indeed and there is a need to prop up the regime i is a need to prop up the regime there _ is a need to prop up the regime there and — is a need to prop up the regime there and russia _ is a need to prop up the regime there and russia has _ is a need to prop up the regime there and russia has done - is a need to prop up the regime

there and russia has done that| is a need to prop up the regime - there and russia has done that with some _ there and russia has done that with some troops— there and russia has done that with some troops placed _ there and russia has done that with some troops placed there, - there and russia has done that with some troops placed there, so- there and russia has done that with some troops placed there, so the l some troops placed there, so the belarusian — some troops placed there, so the belarusian leader— some troops placed there, so the belarusian leader is _ some troops placed there, so the belarusian leader is looking - some troops placed there, so the belarusian leader is looking for l belarusian leader is looking for support— belarusian leader is looking for support at— belarusian leader is looking for support at the _ belarusian leader is looking for support at the moment - belarusian leader is looking fori support at the moment because belarusian leader is looking for - support at the moment because he is looking _ support at the moment because he is looking very — support at the moment because he is looking very fragile. _ support at the moment because he is looking very fragile. they _ support at the moment because he is looking very fragile. they say - support at the moment because he is looking very fragile. they say it - support at the moment because he is looking very fragile. they say it is - looking very fragile. they say it is time _ looking very fragile. they say it is time to— looking very fragile. they say it is time to do— looking very fragile. they say it is time to do something _ looking very fragile. they say it is time to do something in - looking very fragile. they say it is time to do something in belarus, | time to do something in belarus, time _ time to do something in belarus, time to— time to do something in belarus, time to remove _ time to do something in belarus, time to remove the _ time to do something in belarus, time to remove the regime - time to do something in belarus, i time to remove the regime there, time to do something in belarus, - time to remove the regime there, so attention on — time to remove the regime there, so attention on belarus _ time to remove the regime there, so attention on belarus but— time to remove the regime there, so attention on belarus but i— time to remove the regime there, so attention on belarus but i don't- time to remove the regime there, so attention on belarus but i don't see i attention on belarus but i don't see attention on belarus but i don't see a strategy— attention on belarus but i don't see a strategy to— attention on belarus but i don't see a strategy to create _ attention on belarus but i don't see a strategy to create a _ attention on belarus but i don't see a strategy to create a military - a strategy to create a military advantage _ a strategy to create a military advantage se _ a strategy to create a military advantage-— a strategy to create a military advantage. a strategy to create a military advantaae. ., ., , ., advantage. so on that basis, if all these events _ advantage. so on that basis, if all these events are _ advantage. so on that basis, if all these events are genuine, - advantage. so on that basis, if all these events are genuine, as - advantage. so on that basis, if all these events are genuine, as we | advantage. so on that basis, if all. these events are genuine, as we see them play out, this interplay between yevgeny prigozhin and president putin, and the russian military and sergei shoigu, does this give vladimir putin an opportunity to dispose of yevgeny prigozhin and remove him from the picture? prigozhin and remove him from the icture? ., ., , ., ., picture? vladimir putin has long had that opportunity _ picture? vladimir putin has long had that opportunity but _ picture? vladimir putin has long had that opportunity but generally - that opportunity but generally yevgeny prigozhin has had more use, or at least— yevgeny prigozhin has had more use, or at least he has been perceived in that way— or at least he has been perceived in that way because there are different

roles that _ that way because there are different roles that he plays. you have wagner that is— roles that he plays. you have wagner that is an _ roles that he plays. you have wagner that is an offensive force that has proved _ that is an offensive force that has proved itself to be effective, certainly more effective than the traditional russian military, but he also provided a bit of an outlet for some _ also provided a bit of an outlet for some of— also provided a bit of an outlet for some of his — also provided a bit of an outlet for some of his angry patriots. some of those _ some of his angry patriots. some of those who— some of his angry patriots. some of those who were not happy with how there _ those who were not happy with how there won't — those who were not happy with how there won't was being played out, how there — there won't was being played out, how there were was being waged, and who were _ how there were was being waged, and who were critical of the policy. it allowed — who were critical of the policy. it allowed people to remain critical of the policy— allowed people to remain critical of the policy but not to become too critical _ the policy but not to become too critical of — the policy but not to become too critical of the leadership. clearly that the — critical of the leadership. clearly that the rubicon if not entirely passed — that the rubicon if not entirely passed certainly was almost definitely passed yesterday, so the extent _ definitely passed yesterday, so the extent to _ definitely passed yesterday, so the extent to which that will continue to be, _ extent to which that will continue to be, yevgeny prigozhin will continue _ to be, yevgeny prigozhin will continue to be useful for that is probably— continue to be useful for that is probably already answered, but that anger— probably already answered, but that anger will— probably already answered, but that anger will already be there, that anger— anger will already be there, that anger at— anger will already be there, that anger at how the war is being waged ineffectively, so it is not necessarily that the war is being

waged, — necessarily that the war is being waged, that will still be there and that tension within society, particularly among nationalist groups— particularly among nationalist groups who are overwhelmingly sided with wagner yesterday as well, there are all— with wagner yesterday as well, there are all of— with wagner yesterday as well, there are all of these different elements bubbling _ are all of these different elements bubbling up under the surface and they tend — bubbling up under the surface and they tend to be armed and they tend to be heavily motivated. yevgeny prigozhin — to be heavily motivated. yevgeny prigozhin was one way of keeping a lid on _ prigozhin was one way of keeping a lid on them — prigozhin was one way of keeping a lid on them to a certain extent, so i lid on them to a certain extent, so i would _ lid on them to a certain extent, so i would be — lid on them to a certain extent, so i would be sceptical. it is not within— i would be sceptical. it is not within the _ i would be sceptical. it is not within the realms of possibility. people — within the realms of possibility. people die in mysterious circumstances in russia, particularly if they have affected the leadership, but i would be sceptical— the leadership, but i would be sceptical of thinking that is definitely going to happen simply because — definitely going to happen simply because there are many other forces at play— because there are many other forces at play and _ because there are many other forces at play and simply removing yevgeny prigozhin _ at play and simply removing yevgeny prigozhin does not necessarily remove — prigozhin does not necessarily remove the issues for which yevgeny prigozhin _ remove the issues for which yevgeny prigozhin is _ remove the issues for which yevgeny prigozhin is the figurehead. and while vladimir _ prigozhin is the figurehead. fific while vladimir putin was prigozhin is the figurehead. 2:1c while vladimir putin was facing prigozhin is the figurehead. 2.1c while vladimir putin was facing a challenge of some degree from yevgeny prigozhin and wagner, that

at the same time, another pmc and its leader left to the support of vladimir putin. that was the chechen leader and his fighters. as we mentioned withjustin, it is worth remembering that there are still other allies that vladimir putin has and there are other pmc in operation. and there are other pmc in operation-— and there are other pmc in o eration. . �*, , ., operation. and it's interesting to think that the _ operation. and it's interesting to think that the situation - operation. and it's interesting to think that the situation was - think that the situation was resolved just as the chechen fighters _ resolved just as the chechen fighters were coming close to... i think— fighters were coming close to... i think they— fighters were coming close to... i think they had just reached the outskirts— think they had just reached the outskirts of rostov—on—don. that would _ outskirts of rostov—on—don. that would have — outskirts of rostov—on—don. that would have been... that could have caused _ would have been... that could have caused a _ would have been... that could have caused a lot— would have been... that could have caused a lot of issues because basically— caused a lot of issues because basically you would have had wagner, who have _ basically you would have had wagner, who have some popularity among russian _ who have some popularity among russian people, fighting chechens, weigh— russian people, fighting chechens, weigh among ethnic russians, chechens _ weigh among ethnic russians, chechens are not universally popular. _ chechens are not universally popular, certainly in nationalist

groups. — popular, certainly in nationalist groups, and they have been growing during _ groups, and they have been growing during the _ groups, and they have been growing during the war, f note nationalist i mean, _ during the war, f note nationalist i mean and — during the war, f note nationalist i mean and i— during the war, f note nationalist i mean, and i think that could have led to— mean, and i think that could have led to very— mean, and i think that could have led to very unpredictable and unpleasant situation if they had come _ unpleasant situation if they had come to— unpleasant situation if they had come to fight one another. justin, ou were come to fight one another. justin, you were nodding _ come to fight one another. justin, you were nodding along. - come to fight one another. justin, you were nodding along. your- you were nodding along. your thoughts on that situation? i agree completely- _ thoughts on that situation? i agree completely- l _ thoughts on that situation? i agree completely. i think— thoughts on that situation? i agree completely. i think the _ thoughts on that situation? i agree completely. i think the optics - thoughts on that situation? i agree completely. i think the optics of. completely. i think the optics of that were — completely. i think the optics of that were difficult _ completely. i think the optics of that were difficult and _ completely. i think the optics of that were difficult and it - completely. i think the optics of that were difficult and it all- completely. i think the optics of| that were difficult and it all drew efforts _ that were difficult and it all drew efforts away _ that were difficult and it all drew efforts away from _ that were difficult and it all drew efforts away from the _ that were difficult and it all drew efforts away from the front - that were difficult and it all drew efforts away from the front line. that were difficult and it all drew i efforts away from the front line as well _ efforts away from the front line as well the — efforts away from the front line as well. the chechens— efforts away from the front line as well. the chechens were - efforts away from the front line as well. the chechens were pulled i efforts away from the front line as i well. the chechens were pulled away from where _ well. the chechens were pulled away from where they— well. the chechens were pulled away from where they were _ well. the chechens were pulled away from where they were to _ well. the chechens were pulled away from where they were to be - well. the chechens were pulled away from where they were to be the - from where they were to be the reaction — from where they were to be the reaction force _ from where they were to be the reaction force and _ from where they were to be the reaction force and again - from where they were to be the reaction force and again it - from where they were to be the reaction force and again it is- from where they were to be the reaction force and again it is so| reaction force and again it is so telling — reaction force and again it is so telling that _ reaction force and again it is so telling that the _ reaction force and again it is so telling that the reaction - reaction force and again it is so telling that the reaction force i reaction force and again it is so| telling that the reaction force to this incident— telling that the reaction force to this incident was _ telling that the reaction force to this incident was the _ telling that the reaction force to this incident was the chechen . telling that the reaction force to l this incident was the chechen god battalions, — this incident was the chechen god battalions, which— this incident was the chechen god battalions, which have _ this incident was the chechen god battalions, which have not - this incident was the chechen god battalions, which have not been l battalions, which have not been substantially— battalions, which have not been substantially committed - battalions, which have not been substantially committed to - battalions, which have not been i substantially committed to fighting at any— substantially committed to fighting at any point — substantially committed to fighting at any point. there _ substantially committed to fighting at any point. there are _ substantially committed to fighting at any point. there are doubts - substantially committed to fightingj at any point. there are doubts over how effective — at any point. there are doubts over how effective they— at any point. there are doubts over how effective they really— at any point. there are doubts over how effective they really are. - at any point. there are doubts over how effective they really are. theyl how effective they really are. they are more _ how effective they really are. they are more a — how effective they really are. they are more a political— how effective they really are. they are more a political force. - how effective they really are. they are more a political force. there . are more a political force. there was nothing _ are more a political force. there was nothing else _ are more a political force. there was nothing else really. - are more a political force. there was nothing else really. what i are more a political force. there was nothing else really. what it| are more a political force. there i was nothing else really. what it did show _ was nothing else really. what it did show was _ was nothing else really. what it did show was how _ was nothing else really. what it did show was how weak _ was nothing else really. what it did show was how weak the _ was nothing else really. what it did show was how weak the defence i was nothing else really. what it did show was how weak the defence of| show was how weak the defence of

russia _ show was how weak the defence of russia is, — show was how weak the defence of russia is, the _ show was how weak the defence of russia is, the russians _ show was how weak the defence of russia is, the russians fighting - show was how weak the defence of russia is, the russians fighting forj russia is, the russians fighting for ukraine _ russia is, the russians fighting for ukraine have — russia is, the russians fighting for ukraine have shown— russia is, the russians fighting for ukraine have shown there - russia is, the russians fighting for ukraine have shown there is - russia is, the russians fighting for ukraine have shown there is no - russia is, the russians fighting forl ukraine have shown there is no real defence _ ukraine have shown there is no real defence inside _ ukraine have shown there is no real defence inside russia _ ukraine have shown there is no real defence inside russia because - ukraine have shown there is no real defence inside russia because so i defence inside russia because so much _ defence inside russia because so much of— defence inside russia because so much of the _ defence inside russia because so much of the russian _ defence inside russia because so much of the russian military- defence inside russia because so i much of the russian military effort, nearly— much of the russian military effort, nearly all— much of the russian military effort, nearly all the — much of the russian military effort, nearly all the conventional- much of the russian military effort, nearly all the conventional ground i nearly all the conventional ground forces, _ nearly all the conventional ground forces, are — nearly all the conventional ground forces, are committed _ nearly all the conventional ground forces, are committed to - nearly all the conventional ground forces, are committed to fightingl nearly all the conventional ground i forces, are committed to fighting in ukraine _ forces, are committed to fighting in ukraine and — forces, are committed to fighting in ukraine and there _ forces, are committed to fighting in ukraine and there is _ forces, are committed to fighting in ukraine and there is nothing - forces, are committed to fighting in ukraine and there is nothing else i forces, are committed to fighting in ukraine and there is nothing else inj ukraine and there is nothing else in attack, _ ukraine and there is nothing else in attack, so _ ukraine and there is nothing else in attack, so that _ ukraine and there is nothing else in attack, so that highlighted - ukraine and there is nothing else in attack, so that highlighted how- attack, so that highlighted how little _ attack, so that highlighted how little they— attack, so that highlighted how little they was _ attack, so that highlighted how little they was to _ attack, so that highlighted how little they was to deal - attack, so that highlighted how little they was to deal with - attack, so that highlighted how little they was to deal with the| little they was to deal with the situation — little they was to deal with the situation like _ little they was to deal with the situation like this. _ little they was to deal with the situation like this. i _ little they was to deal with the situation like this. i think- little they was to deal with the situation like this. i think it. situation like this. i think it certainly— situation like this. i think it certainly added _ situation like this. i think it certainly added to - situation like this. i think it certainly added to the - situation like this. i think it. certainly added to the urgency situation like this. i think it - certainly added to the urgency of resolving — certainly added to the urgency of resolving the _ certainly added to the urgency of resolving the situation _ certainly added to the urgency of resolving the situation before - certainly added to the urgency of resolving the situation before it. resolving the situation before it -ot resolving the situation before it got out — resolving the situation before it got out of — resolving the situation before it got out of hand. _ resolving the situation before it got out of hand. it _ resolving the situation before it got out of hand. it was - resolving the situation before it. got out of hand. it was becoming a lose - _ got out of hand. it was becoming a lose - lose — got out of hand. it was becoming a lose — lose situation— got out of hand. it was becoming a lose — lose situation for— got out of hand. it was becoming a lose — lose situation for all- lose — lose situation for all parties _ lose — lose situation for all parties in _ lose — lose situation for all parties in russia _ lose — lose situation for all parties in russia and - lose — lose situation for all parties in russia and it - lose — lose situation for all- parties in russia and it brought that to — parties in russia and it brought that to an— parties in russia and it brought that to an end, _ parties in russia and it brought that to an end, but _ parties in russia and it brought that to an end, but it— parties in russia and it brought that to an end, but it really- that to an end, but it really undermines _ that to an end, but it really undermines the _ that to an end, but it really undermines the idea - that to an end, but it really undermines the idea that l that to an end, but it really. undermines the idea that this that to an end, but it really- undermines the idea that this was somehow— undermines the idea that this was somehow planned, _ undermines the idea that this was somehow planned, it _ undermines the idea that this was somehow planned, it was - undermines the idea that this was. somehow planned, it was contrived undermines the idea that this was - somehow planned, it was contrived to brin- somehow planned, it was contrived to bring opponents — somehow planned, it was contrived to bring opponents into— somehow planned, it was contrived to bring opponents into the _ somehow planned, it was contrived to bring opponents into the open. - bring opponents into the open. vladimir— bring opponents into the open. vladimir putin— bring opponents into the open. vladimir putin is— bring opponents into the open. vladimir putin is not— bring opponents into the open. vladimir putin is not an - vladimir putin is not an opportunist. _ vladimir putin is not an opportunist. he - vladimir putin is not an opportunist. he has - vladimir putin is not an i opportunist. he has seized vladimir putin is not an - opportunist. he has seized the opportunity— opportunist. he has seized the opportunity in _ opportunist. he has seized the opportunity in this _ opportunist. he has seized the opportunity in this but - opportunist. he has seized the opportunity in this but he - opportunist. he has seized the opportunity in this but he is. opportunity in this but he is juggling _ opportunity in this but he is juggling all— opportunity in this but he is juggling all the _ opportunity in this but he is juggling all the things - opportunity in this but he is juggling all the things thatl opportunity in this but he is- juggling all the things that jade mentions, _ juggling all the things that jade mentions, all— juggling all the things that jade mentions, all these _ juggling all the things that jade mentions, all these different. mentions, all these different factions. _ mentions, all these different factions, and _ mentions, all these different factions, and overall- mentions, all these different factions, and overall they. mentions, all these different. factions, and overall they have mentions, all these different- factions, and overall they have to be weaker— factions, and overall they have to be weaker as _ factions, and overall they have to be weaker as a _ factions, and overall they have to be weaker as a result, _ factions, and overall they have to be weaker as a result, pulling - factions, and overall they have to l be weaker as a result, pulling away what they— be weaker as a result, pulling away what they can — be weaker as a result, pulling away what they can from _ be weaker as a result, pulling away what they can from the _ be weaker as a result, pulling away what they can from the front line, i what they can from the front line, it has— what they can from the front line, it has now — what they can from the front line, it has now got _ what they can from the front line, it has now got to _ what they can from the front line, it has now got to go _ what they can from the front line, it has now got to go back, - it has now got to go back, everyone's_ it has now got to go back, everyone's attention - it has now got to go back, everyone's attention on i it has now got to go back, i everyone's attention on the it has now got to go back, - everyone's attention on the front line distracted, _ everyone's attention on the front line distracted, and _ everyone's attention on the front line distracted, and if— everyone's attention on the front line distracted, and if you - everyone's attention on the front line distracted, and if you are - everyone's attention on the front

line distracted, and if you are a i line distracted, and if you are a russian — line distracted, and if you are a russian soldier— line distracted, and if you are a russian soldier at— line distracted, and if you are a russian soldier at the - line distracted, and if you are a russian soldier at the moment| line distracted, and if you are a - russian soldier at the moment based in ukraine _ russian soldier at the moment based in ukraine and— russian soldier at the moment based in ukraine and behind _ russian soldier at the moment based in ukraine and behind you _ russian soldier at the moment based in ukraine and behind you is - russian soldier at the moment based in ukraine and behind you is chaos. in ukraine and behind you is chaos emerging— in ukraine and behind you is chaos emerging and— in ukraine and behind you is chaos emerging and you— in ukraine and behind you is chaos emerging and you are _ in ukraine and behind you is chaos emerging and you are learning - in ukraine and behind you is chaos| emerging and you are learning bits of it on— emerging and you are learning bits of it on telegram _ emerging and you are learning bits of it on telegram and _ emerging and you are learning bits of it on telegram and people - emerging and you are learning bits of it on telegram and people you . of it on telegram and people you respect — of it on telegram and people you respect like _ of it on telegram and people you respect like yevgeny _ of it on telegram and people you respect like yevgeny prigozhin, i of it on telegram and people you i respect like yevgeny prigozhin, who fought— respect like yevgeny prigozhin, who fought hard. — respect like yevgeny prigozhin, who fought hard. is— respect like yevgeny prigozhin, who fought hard, is telling _ respect like yevgeny prigozhin, who fought hard, is telling the _ respect like yevgeny prigozhin, who fought hard, is telling the entire - fought hard, is telling the entire war is— fought hard, is telling the entire war is being _ fought hard, is telling the entire war is being fought— fought hard, is telling the entire war is being fought on— fought hard, is telling the entire war is being fought on the - fought hard, is telling the entire war is being fought on the lie i fought hard, is telling the entirel war is being fought on the lie and fought— war is being fought on the lie and fought badly— war is being fought on the lie and fought badly as— war is being fought on the lie and fought badly as well, _ war is being fought on the lie and fought badly as well, your - war is being fought on the lie and| fought badly as well, your morale war is being fought on the lie and i fought badly as well, your morale is not going _ fought badly as well, your morale is not going to — fought badly as well, your morale is not going to be _ fought badly as well, your morale is not going to be high, _ fought badly as well, your morale is not going to be high, so _ fought badly as well, your morale is not going to be high, so none - fought badly as well, your morale is not going to be high, so none of- not going to be high, so none of this helps— not going to be high, so none of this helps the _ not going to be high, so none of this helps the russian _ not going to be high, so none of this helps the russian forces - not going to be high, so none of this helps the russian forces inl not going to be high, so none of. this helps the russian forces in any way. this helps the russian forces in any wa . , ., ., , this helps the russian forces in any wa. ,, this helps the russian forces in any wa. ., , way. one question that comes up as a consistent theme _ way. one question that comes up as a consistent theme is _ way. one question that comes up as a consistent theme is the _ way. one question that comes up as a consistent theme is the relationship i consistent theme is the relationship between belarus and russia and exactly what that relationship is, because many of these us will look and go, belarus is being used as a staging post for parts of the invasion. —— many of the viewers. what exactly is the interplay between belarus and moscow? belarus is completely — between belarus and moscow? belarus is completely and _ between belarus and moscow? belarus is completely and utterly _ between belarus and moscow? belarus is completely and utterly dependent i is completely and utterly dependent on russia and its leader, alexander

lukashenko is dependent on vladimir putin, so from that point of view, i would struggle to see how alexander lukashenko could have played an independent role in all this. of course, belarus is russia's key ally in this part of the world, one of the most loyal allies among the former soviet union —— soviet republics, but to see alexander lukashenko as someone who could step in and resolve differences between vladimir putin and somebody who used to serve him at his restaurant in saint petersburg all these years ago, i think it is unlikely and whatever role alexander lukashenko played, i am sure it required encouragement if not orders from

moscow. it encouragement if not orders from moscow. , ., , ., moscow. it is worth remembering that back in 1997, — moscow. it is worth remembering that back in 1997, belarus _ moscow. it is worth remembering that back in 1997, belarus and _ moscow. it is worth remembering that back in 1997, belarus and russia i back in 1997, belarus and russia signed the union state agreement that created a supranational union consisting of the two that looked to deepen the relationship between the two states both economically and defensively, so this is not a new situation we are seeing now. this has been going on for several decades with regard to that supranational state. with regards to the newer entities, wagner, and the pmc, what happens to that now? what happens in the coming weeks? i think there is a lack— happens in the coming weeks? i think there is a lack of _ happens in the coming weeks? i think there is a lack of clarity _ happens in the coming weeks? i think there is a lack of clarity around - there is a lack of clarity around aspects — there is a lack of clarity around aspects of— there is a lack of clarity around aspects of how— there is a lack of clarity around aspects of how this _ there is a lack of clarity around aspects of how this situation . there is a lack of clarity around i aspects of how this situation will develop — aspects of how this situation will develop but _ aspects of how this situation will develop but from _ aspects of how this situation will develop but from what _ aspects of how this situation will develop but from what we - aspects of how this situation will - develop but from what we understand, the contract _ develop but from what we understand, the contract audit _ develop but from what we understand, the contract audit still— develop but from what we understand, the contract audit still stands - develop but from what we understand, the contract audit still stands in - the contract audit still stands in force _ the contract audit still stands in force so— the contract audit still stands in force so the _ the contract audit still stands in force, so the pmc _ the contract audit still stands in force, so the pmc fighters - the contract audit still stands in force, so the pmc fighters are i force, so the pmc fighters are expected _ force, so the pmc fighters are expected to _ force, so the pmc fighters are expected to be _ force, so the pmc fighters are expected to be assimilated i force, so the pmc fighters are i expected to be assimilated into force, so the pmc fighters are - expected to be assimilated into the russian _ expected to be assimilated into the russian armed _ expected to be assimilated into the russian armed forces. _ expected to be assimilated into the russian armed forces. they - expected to be assimilated into the russian armed forces. they couldl russian armed forces. they could always _ russian armed forces. they could always have — russian armed forces. they could always have joint _ russian armed forces. they could always have joint russian - russian armed forces. they could always have joint russian regularl always have joint russian regular forces, _ always have joint russian regular forces, they— always have joint russian regular forces, they are _ always have joint russian regular forces, they are in _ always have joint russian regular forces, they are in wagner- always have joint russian regular forces, they are in wagner for. always have joint russian regular forces, they are in wagner for a i forces, they are in wagner for a

reason — forces, they are in wagner for a reason some _ forces, they are in wagner for a reason. some are _ forces, they are in wagner for a reason. some are not— forces, they are in wagner for a reason. some are not legally i forces, they are in wagner for a - reason. some are not legally allowed toioin_ reason. some are not legally allowed toioin russian— reason. some are not legally allowed tojoin russian forces, _ reason. some are not legally allowed tojoin russian forces, for— reason. some are not legally allowed to join russian forces, for example . tojoin russian forces, for example the ex-convicts_ tojoin russian forces, for example the ex—convicts and _ tojoin russian forces, for example the ex—convicts and people - tojoin russian forces, for example the ex—convicts and people like i the ex—convicts and people like that _ the ex—convicts and people like that 0ther— the ex—convicts and people like that. other more _ the ex—convicts and people like that. other more experienced i that. other more experienced fighters — that. other more experienced fighters are _ that. other more experienced fighters are making _ that. other more experienced fighters are making a - that. other more experienced fighters are making a lot- that. other more experiencedl fighters are making a lot more that. other more experienced - fighters are making a lot more money and have _ fighters are making a lot more money and have a _ fighters are making a lot more money and have a lot — fighters are making a lot more money and have a lot more _ fighters are making a lot more money and have a lot more freedom - fighters are making a lot more money and have a lot more freedom to - and have a lot more freedom to operate — and have a lot more freedom to operate within _ and have a lot more freedom to operate within the _ and have a lot more freedom to operate within the pmc - and have a lot more freedom to . operate within the pmc structure, and have a lot more freedom to - operate within the pmc structure, so i operate within the pmc structure, so i can't _ operate within the pmc structure, so ican't imagine — operate within the pmc structure, so i can't imagine there _ operate within the pmc structure, so i can't imagine there is _ operate within the pmc structure, so i can't imagine there is a _ operate within the pmc structure, so i can't imagine there is a great - i can't imagine there is a great appetite — i can't imagine there is a great appetite from _ ican't imagine there is a great appetite from any— ican't imagine there is a great appetite from any of— i can't imagine there is a great appetite from any of them i i can't imagine there is a great appetite from any of them to i i can't imagine there is a great i appetite from any of them to want i can't imagine there is a great - appetite from any of them to want to 'oin appetite from any of them to want to join the _ appetite from any of them to want to join the russian _ appetite from any of them to want to join the russian forces _ appetite from any of them to want to join the russian forces with - appetite from any of them to want to join the russian forces with all- appetite from any of them to want to join the russian forces with all the i join the russian forces with all the restrictions— join the russian forces with all the restrictions and _ join the russian forces with all the restrictions and the _ join the russian forces with all the restrictions and the culture - join the russian forces with all the restrictions and the culture withini restrictions and the culture within the russian — restrictions and the culture within the russian forces _ restrictions and the culture within the russian forces in _ restrictions and the culture within the russian forces in particular. i the russian forces in particular. and neither— the russian forces in particular. and neither are _ the russian forces in particular. and neither are they— the russian forces in particular. | and neither are they necessarily going _ and neither are they necessarily going to — and neither are they necessarily going to be _ and neither are they necessarily going to be welcomed _ and neither are they necessarily going to be welcomed into - and neither are they necessarilyl going to be welcomed into these units _ going to be welcomed into these units many— going to be welcomed into these units many of— going to be welcomed into these units. many of them _ going to be welcomed into these units. many of them are - going to be welcomed into these units. many of them are now i going to be welcomed into these i units. many of them are now tainted, potentially _ units. many of them are now tainted, potentially viewed _ units. many of them are now tainted, potentially viewed with _ units. many of them are now tainted, potentially viewed with suspicion, i potentially viewed with suspicion, so the _ potentially viewed with suspicion, so the idea — potentially viewed with suspicion, so the idea that _ potentially viewed with suspicion, so the idea that they— potentially viewed with suspicion, so the idea that they will- potentially viewed with suspicion, so the idea that they will be - so the idea that they will be distributed _ so the idea that they will be distributed across— so the idea that they will be distributed across a - so the idea that they will be distributed across a number so the idea that they will be i distributed across a number of units, — distributed across a number of units, that— distributed across a number of units, that would _ distributed across a number of units, that would weaken - distributed across a number ofj units, that would weaken their ability— units, that would weaken their ability to— units, that would weaken their ability to operate _ units, that would weaken their ability to operate as _ units, that would weaken their ability to operate as a - units, that would weaken their ability to operate as a body, i units, that would weaken their i ability to operate as a body, which is where _ ability to operate as a body, which is where they— ability to operate as a body, which is where they have _ ability to operate as a body, which is where they have been _ ability to operate as a body, which is where they have been effective, so it is— is where they have been effective, so it is diluting _ is where they have been effective, so it is diluting their— so it is diluting their effectiveness- so it is diluting their effectiveness as i so it is diluting their effectiveness as a l so it is diluting their- effectiveness as a fighting so it is diluting their— effectiveness as a fighting people as well— effectiveness as a fighting people as well as — effectiveness as a fighting people as well as creating _ effectiveness as a fighting people as well as creating this _ effectiveness as a fighting people as well as creating this culture i effectiveness as a fighting people as well as creating this culture of| as well as creating this culture of mistrust — as well as creating this culture of mistrust and _ as well as creating this culture of mistrust and uncertainty. - as well as creating this culture of mistrust and uncertainty. i- as well as creating this culture of mistrust and uncertainty. i thinkl mistrust and uncertainty. i think the best— mistrust and uncertainty. i think the best of— mistrust and uncertainty. i think the best of them _ mistrust and uncertainty. i think the best of them will— mistrust and uncertainty. i think the best of them will carry - mistrust and uncertainty. i think the best of them will carry on i the best of them will carry on operating _ the best of them will carry on operating overseas, - the best of them will carry on operating overseas, africa . the best of them will carry oni operating overseas, africa has the best of them will carry on - operating overseas, africa has been the traditional— operating overseas, africa has been the traditional large _ operating overseas, africa has been the traditional large focus _ operating overseas, africa has been the traditional large focus of- the traditional large focus of wagner— the traditional large focus of wagner and _ the traditional large focus of wagner and they— the traditional large focus of wagner and they have - the traditional large focus of wagner and they have got . the traditional large focus of- wagner and they have got thousands of people _ wagner and they have got thousands of pe0ple there. _ wagner and they have got thousands of people there, so _ wagner and they have got thousands of people there, so that _ wagner and they have got thousands of people there, so that is _ wagner and they have got thousands of people there, so that is the - of people there, so that is the place — of people there, so that is the place to—

of people there, so that is the place to carry _ of people there, so that is the place to carry on _ of people there, so that is the place to carry on being - of people there, so that is the place to carry on being a - of people there, so that is the place to carry on being a pmc| place to carry on being a pmc operative _ place to carry on being a pmc operative overseas _ place to carry on being a pmc operative overseas at - place to carry on being a pmc operative overseas at the - place to carry on being a pmc- operative overseas at the moment, but it_ operative overseas at the moment, but it remains— operative overseas at the moment, but it remains unclear— operative overseas at the moment, but it remains unclear whether- operative overseas at the moment, but it remains unclear whether that will be _ but it remains unclear whether that will be allowed _ but it remains unclear whether that will be allowed to _ but it remains unclear whether that will be allowed to continue. - but it remains unclear whether that will be allowed to continue. if- but it remains unclear whether that will be allowed to continue. if they| will be allowed to continue. if they become _ will be allowed to continue. if they become part— will be allowed to continue. if they become part of— will be allowed to continue. if they become part of the _ will be allowed to continue. if they become part of the russian - will be allowed to continue. if they become part of the russian armed forces, _ become part of the russian armed forces, that — become part of the russian armed forces, that means— become part of the russian armed forces, that means it _ become part of the russian armed forces, that means it is _ become part of the russian armed forces, that means it is now- forces, that means it is now deployed _ forces, that means it is now deployed in_ forces, that means it is now deployed in combat - forces, that means it is now deployed in combat across l forces, that means it is now- deployed in combat across africa and the very— deployed in combat across africa and the very reason — deployed in combat across africa and the very reason is _ deployed in combat across africa and the very reason is that _ deployed in combat across africa and the very reason is that they- deployed in combat across africa and the very reason is that they were - the very reason is that they were not used — the very reason is that they were hot used for— the very reason is that they were not used for that _ the very reason is that they were not used for that in— the very reason is that they were not used for that in the - the very reason is that they were not used for that in the first - not used for that in the first place. — not used for that in the first place. so _ not used for that in the first place. so a _ not used for that in the first place, so a lot _ not used for that in the first place, so a lot of— not used for that in the first place, so a lot of questions| not used for that in the first - place, so a lot of questions still there _ place, so a lot of questions still there and — place, so a lot of questions still there and regardless _ place, so a lot of questions still there and regardless of- place, so a lot of questions stilli there and regardless of anything else, _ there and regardless of anything else, if— there and regardless of anything else, ifwagner— there and regardless of anything else, if wagner has _ there and regardless of anything else, if wagner has an _ there and regardless of anything else, if wagner has an effectivei else, if wagner has an effective part of— else, if wagner has an effective part of the _ else, if wagner has an effective part of the russian _ else, if wagner has an effective part of the russian combat - part of the russian combat structure. _ part of the russian combat structure, it— part of the russian combat structure, it is— part of the russian combat structure, it is certainly- part of the russian combat - structure, it is certainly diluted at the — structure, it is certainly diluted at the moment, _ structure, it is certainly diluted at the moment, and _ structure, it is certainly diluted at the moment, and that - structure, it is certainly diluted at the moment, and that is - structure, it is certainly diluted at the moment, and that is a l structure, it is certainly diluted i at the moment, and that is a net loss to _ at the moment, and that is a net loss to russia _ at the moment, and that is a net loss to russia in _ at the moment, and that is a net loss to russia in terms _ at the moment, and that is a net loss to russia in terms of- at the moment, and that is a net loss to russia in terms of their . loss to russia in terms of their combat — loss to russia in terms of their combat power _ loss to russia in terms of their combat power. while - loss to russia in terms of their combat power. while it - loss to russia in terms of their combat power. while it may. loss to russia in terms of their i combat power. while it may clear loss to russia in terms of their - combat power. while it may clear up some _ combat power. while it may clear up some of— combat power. while it may clear up some of the — combat power. while it may clear up some of the critical— combat power. while it may clear up some of the critical problems, - combat power. while it may clear up some of the critical problems, it- combat power. while it may clear up some of the critical problems, it is. some of the critical problems, it is not helping — some of the critical problems, it is not helping their— some of the critical problems, it is not helping their war— some of the critical problems, it is not helping their war effort - some of the critical problems, it is not helping their war effort in - some of the critical problems, it is not helping their war effort in anyi not helping their war effort in any way and _ not helping their war effort in any way and this— not helping their war effort in any way and this is— not helping their war effort in any way and this is a _ not helping their war effort in any way and this is a band—aid - not helping their war effort in any way and this is a band—aid over. not helping their war effort in any way and this is a band—aid over a| way and this is a band—aid over a long-term — way and this is a band—aid over a long—term problem. _ way and this is a band—aid over a long—term problem. [it— way and this is a band—aid over a long—term problem. [it is - way and this is a band-aid over a long-term problem.— long-term problem. it is a develtwping _ long-term problem. it is a developing situation, - long-term problem. it is a developing situation, a - long-term problem. it is a - developing situation, a developing one, thank you very much for your analysis there and for answering questions put to us by viewers of bbc news and readers of the live page on our website. a short time

ago, we brought you some news attributed to the task news agency about president putin taking part in about president putin taking part in a regular security council meeting next week at the russian president giving top priority to his so—called top military operation. there is some confusion about when those comments were made. it appears they were given in an interview before the events of this weekend. more on those comments live on bbc news. in some parts of the country, it is roasting and it could be the hottest day of the year so far, but it is changing in other areas. we are getting cooler air coming in from the atlantic into western parts of the atlantic into western parts of the uk. humid air towards the east and in between a weather front and thatis and in between a weather front and that is going to bring this rain. not much in the south at all but

heavy rain moving across northern areas. some thunderstorms as well and may be some gusty winds as well. all squeezing the heat and humidity into eastern england. 30 degrees around lincolnshire, 32 or more in london. really humid as well. 0ut towards the west, things are beginning to cool down a bit. the wetter weather that we have got across those northern areas does push away into the north sea. the showers become fewer and lighter. many places become dry overnight with clear skies. last night was really uncomfortable for sleeping. temperatures in scotland fell no lower than 20 degrees. crosby in merseyside, i9 celsius. tonight will be somewhat easier to sleep because temperatures are going to be lower. perhaps single figures in scotland and northern ireland. tomorrow, some sunny spells, some cloud will develop, and that will lead to some showers. any shower clouds will be

suppressed further south. it will feel cooler and fresher everywhere. temperatures dropping seven or 8 degrees in large parts of the uk, so a top temperature of 23, may be 2a in the south—east. everything is coming in from the atlantic. these weather fronts will be arriving on tuesday so we will see more cloud coming our way. once again looking dry towards south—eastern areas but some outbreaks of rain and drizzle further north and more of a breeze as well. these are the temperatures we are looking at. typically between 20 and 22 degrees. quite warm overnight for south—eastern parts of the uk heading into wednesday. we are in a warm sector between those two weather fronts. cooler air is going to be waiting to come in from the atlantic. following this band of rain that will be affecting scotland and northern ireland, pushing into england and wales once again. those temperatures dropping away in the north—west when we get some sunshine and showers. still dry and quite warm in the south—east, the mid 20s.

live from london. this is bbc news. wagner mercinary boss ngeney priogzhin is to leave russia for belarus, after calling off a rebellion against the russian military. cheers of support as wagner fighters cheers of support as wagner fighters return to their bases, return to their bases, the kremlin says it will not the kremlin says it will not prosecute them or their leader, prosecute them or their leader,

for their actions. for their actions. road restrictions remain in place around moscow — after emergency security measures were imposed during wagner's advance on the russian capital.