tv The Briefing BBC News July 2, 2023 3:30am-4:00am BST
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to remind russians he is still in charge around here. waiting for vladimir putin, 2500 soldiers and guards, waiting for vladimir putin, and the defence minister. 2500 soldiers and guards, having survived it a time to say thank you. translation: you have saved our motherland from upheaval. - in fact, you have stopped a civil war. in fact, the reality was rather different. the wagner soldiers, who had been cheered on the streets of rostov, had only stopped the rebellion out of the kremlin did a deal promising not to press charges against them and their leader yevgeny prigozhin. still, kremlin spin
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is present this as a triumph for their leader. the uprising is over and the kremlin is trying to reframe the optics as what happened as a victoria bought the president and for russia. but where is yevgeny prigozhin? under his deal with the kremlin, he agreed to leave russia for belarus. today, the leader of belarus, alexander lukashenko, said yes, he is here, but in exile, could mr prigozhin still be a threat to the kremlin? not if vladimir putin could help it. he is suggesting that investigators might probe the wagner group. a less than subtle hint to the wagner chief not to make trouble.
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the last few days have put him under huge pressure. now president putin is determined to show he is in control. here in the ukrainian capital, i have spent most of the day talking to senior members of president zelenskyy�*s administration to see the mimic of the current situation. there has to be a major pinch of salt when you talk to people who are fighting what they believe is a life—and—death struggle for the independents of this country, but it is interesting nonetheless to get their opinions. and all of them said they believed that president putin was effectively finished, that the countdown was ticking down on his future. and they also said that there were, they believed, groups
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within moscow who were waiting to take their chance to push their preferred candidate for the succession when it ended. when and if president putin steps down. i emphasise this is the opinion of the leadership here, so you have to accept that, that they are looking at it from a certain angle. one more thing, too — i asked about the progress of the ukrainian offensive, and one of the senior advisers said to me, "look, the mutiny did not make much "difference on the battlefield, because it did not last very "long." and another one said, when i asked about progress, he made a face and did something like that, as if to say it is going slowly and they have not got all that far, although he was of course hopeful that things were going to get better from their point of perspective. and what i think they are trying to do is manage expectations
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in case any of their western allies get overexcited, because despite everything that has happened in moscow, the russian army is still a formidable foe for the ukrainians. in nanterre today, thousands gathered to mark the void left by one local teenager and the rage that flowed in to fill it. the violence here last night still mapped onto the surrounding streets in ash and debris. nahel�*s mother leading a chant of "police, assassins." evan came from a suburb on the other side of paris, but the problems there were just the same, he said. translation:
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we do not have jobs. we do not get hired if we do not lie on our cv. there is nothing for us, and on top of that, we get attacked by the people who are supposed to protect us. this is enough. this is one offence too many. the march ended this afternoon in a different kind of protest, burning cars, tear gas, clashes with police. one local resident told us her own teenage son had been mistreated by police, and that the violence following nahel�*s death was justified. translation: i would not be surprised if the trouble - continues as long as there are no consequences for this police officer. i am not in the heads of the young people here, but what is happening here is justified. police at delinquency, not the youth. parents are doing everything they can. the officer is now in custody and fitting it onto voluntary homicide. the french interior minister said it was time for the violence to stop.
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translation: last night's riots and burning a school, _ a town hall, a social centre, that has nothing to do with what happened in nanterre. those responsible for the trouble should now go home. but nobody we spoke to thought the anger had run its course. there is anger at french president emmanuel macron and his government. there is anger at politics in general, but there's also a deep disappointment with the french state and the broken promises that people feel it makes to them. and the government is worried that that deep disappointment might fuel a pattern of nightly riots, and so it is trying to curb the unrest, really on two different ways, and it is walking something of a tight rope between them. on the one hand, it wants to show that it understands the anger people feel towards the police actions that led to nahel�*s death. on the other, to sticking to an increase tough policing approach violence on the streets, and the atmosphere here today was pretty tense at times, and i think there are many people
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here in paris tonight watching very carefully what tonight will bring. george birnbaum may be one of the most influential people in the world you have never heard of, a sought—after political consultant who has helped a string of world leaders to power. benjamin netanyahu, viktor orban, as well as a serbian president, an austrian chancellor, and prime ministers in romania, the czech republic, bulgaria and even the mayor of kyiv, vitali klitschko. politically conservative with a strong sense of his jewish identity, he joined forces with arthur finkelstein in the 1990s. finkelstein was famous for making liberal a dirty word for many in america. a brilliant mathematician who liked to crunch electoral numbers. george birnbaum worked
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on the campaign strategy. their first big joint success was benjamin netanyahu's surprise victory in israel in 1996 against the strong favourite. how did you help benjamin netanyahu win? that is a fascinating case. when we came in, we took the system, a different system than people understand. your tv time is limited by the government. we came in and the idea of repetition. we would repeat the same advert several times in a four—minute block. what was the message? the message was about jerusalem, i think? two main messages there, but the main one was that paris would dividejerusalem, and the other was peace through security. in israel, there is a dividing line, and there has been for many years, between the right
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on the left. the left by and large, and this goes to the language and messaging, want peace at almost any cost, whereas the right side, we want security first, then peace. so part of the language we used was netanyahu for secure peace. we took the language of the left and the right and put them together, because back then, the other dividing line was people who identified first as a jew versus people who identified first as an israeli. they were very different in the way they acted and the way they voted. so we needed to make sure that the people who self identified asjews, who tend to vote more right of centre the left of centre, turned out to vote, and we had the palace will dividejerusalem was really meant to drive out the voters right of centre, and identified as jews first. was it true? would peres have divided jerusalem? it is hard to say. whether there would be a line down
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jerusalem, i don't think so, but there were areas of the palestinian authority discussed as part of a peace deal. finkelstein and birnbaum taught benjamin netanyahu the art of reducing his campaign to a few simple slogans and then repeating them until enough people believe him. he fell from power in 1999, spent ten years in opposition before coming back, then remained israel's prime minister for the next 12 years. he finally lost in 2021, but bounced back last year for his sixth term as prime minister. mr netanyahu spoke of the need to reinvent yourself as the leader of the disenfranchised masses, face—to—face with a mythical elite. was that you and arthur finkelstein�*s idea, too? i will say this — any country anywhere in the world were people feel disenfranchised, who feel like they are not
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getting the opportunity that others get, and i will say that in most elections, people vote from the heart not the head, but on emotions — hope being the strongest emotion in elections. so what that means is different to every individual. could be a betterjob, a better education for their child, a better car, who knows what that means to someone? when you come in to help politicians plan a political campaign, is that what you are looking for helping them to find ways to represent the disenfranchised masses? it is not the disenfranchised, i will tell you this, the most important aspect a politician running for office can have, the most important attribute, is that a voter looks at them and says, he or she is one of us. they understand my problems, they understand what i go through every day. so i think
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it is an exaggeration to say we pray on the desires of the disenfranchised. no. we talk to average people, to real people, and let them know, we understand what you're going through, we understand what your challenges are. we are going to make those challenges easier and better for you, we are going to give you a better tomorrow. that was reagan's message, that was donald trump's message in his first election. benjamin netanyahu introduced the finkelstein birnbaum duo to hungarian politician viktor orban in 1998. then in opposition, orban and his party won the 2010 election and have stayed in power ever since, using the techniques they taught him. it is not just it is notjust a way of simplifying your own message but of identifying an enemy, one that the public is told they ought to fear. first a suitable candidate needs to be found, one that cannot fight back.
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netanyahu and george birnbaum once said that viktor orban and benjamin netanyahu were their best pupils. he won in 2010 with a landslide, then he faced a problem, he had annhialated the opposition. you helped him find a new opponent, george soros. tell me about that. i have a problem with any leader in any country staying in power for too long. the other thing i have come to know_ the other thing i have come to know after all these years. i have a real problem with outside money influencing elections. whether it is a foreign national going into another countrx _ in the united states, you have a large donor in michigan putting money into a race in california. i have a real problem with money influencing elections from the outside. and george soros, although he is hungarian, i will say this, i am the son and grandson of holocaust survivors. george soros is a survivor. he has built an empire. i have enormous respect,
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especially as a jew, for what george soros might have been able to do post—world war ii, post—holocaust. i have a real problem with george soros' ideology and using his wealth to project that throughout the world. george soros set up an open society foundation in hungary in the late 1980s, supporting young democrats including, at that time, viktor orban. but orban's growing interest in an illiberal democracy increasing which clashed with soros' vision of a liberal one. but soros, like george birnbaum and arthur finkelstein, was jewish. identifying soros as an enemy from a country in which more than half a millionjews were deported and murdered in the second world war risked replacing the demons of the past with the demons of the present. the new threat, according to orban, came from muslim immigrants,
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brought into europe, however implausibly, by another outsider, a jew. although george birnbaum stopped working for viktor orban in 2015, and arthur finkelstein died in 2017, orban continued to vilify soros in his political campaigns. the duo had given viktor orban one of the keys to his remarkable electoral success. giant billboards went up around the country selling george soros faced with the slogan, do not let the side of the last laugh. it was around the country and seemed to repeat a trip people saw in the 1930s of the grinning jew, the laughing financier exploiting the public, having a malign effect. what do you think of that campaign? i do not see it as an anti—semitic trope.
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i think it was seen as this extravagant kind of secretive multi—billionaire spreading his influence. which is of course what the nazis accused the jews of in the 1930s. sure, but in a very different way, and to compare one individual george soros to an entire people, i think is very different, very unfair. george soros was an individual target. and the fact he wasjewish, was that ever discussed between you and viktor orban or his advisers? never once came up. never once. did it cross your mind? not at any point. in 2017, my 14—year—old son was playing football at school, and whenever one of the kids shouted stop, another kid shouted soros. is that not the danger of powerful political messaging, and it goes very deep in the society and actually divides that society
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even more than it was before? it is interesting. political campaigns are all based on one thing, advertising, and winning any advertising campaign, whether you are coca—cola or a politician, is getting people to remember and repeat the message. the critical thing. we call it message penetration. if you turn one politician into a hero, do you have to demonise his or her opponent? you don't always have to demonise the opponent. but it can help? what's that? but it can help? it depends, it depends on where the votes are. it is good to have an enemy, and very rarely... not in a way that again, i would never run a campaign attacking somebody based on their heritage. you can absolutely demonise someone on their ideology, i have no problem with that,
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elections are about ideologies and people choosing a set of policies that they think will make their lives better. this polarisation, eroding the centre, getting rid of the centre where everyone used to feel comfortable, aren't you one of the profits, as it were, of polarisation in order to win elections? no, i think in fact that is very wrong. if you polarise too many people, you will not get to a majority of votes. i think polarisation is very dangerous. in fact, i think it is the opposite. i think you need to find the majority of voices in order to win an election, not the small wing of the party. that works in primaries, we have in the united states our primary elections,
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and in order to win a primary, usually the person, on the democratic or republican side, whoever takes the most extreme position wins the primary. the extremists are the most energised voters to turn out, and part of the problem of polarisation i think is forcing people who normally would make good candidates for office stay out of the electoral process altogether, because they do not want to be a part of what is going on. so i think polarisation, in the sense that it exists today, at least in the us and some other countries, is very dangerous for democracy. i am not in favour of that at all. if trump wins the republican nomination, would you work for him? no. why not? first of all, i have no desire to work in american politics, and i also do not know that... i learned this from arthur finkelstein. electing a president
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of the united states is a very serious business, it affects millions of people. it affects not just it affects notjust hundreds of millions of people but billions of people. arthur said, i really have to believe 100% and love deeply person i am working for to be president of the united states, and he had many offers to work for different people over the years, and he said no. i kind of feel that way about donald trump. i just don't have the deep feeling that i would want to work for a donald trump. quite frankly, you ask me who i would want to work for in the united states elections, i do not know the answer. so the short answer is no. the long answer as it is a very serious to elect a president of the united states, and i have to be fully behind that individual. the constant use of service to collect our personal data
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is combined with deep learning algorithms to monitor our online habits. political parties gain a remarkably accurate database of the gender, age, and personalities of the voters, and the tools to target them with new messages in real—time. donald trump and joe biden in the us, the brexit leave campaign in the uk, and viktor orban in hungary, learned how to create a wave of public opinion, then how to surf it. the modern campaign tools, social media, algorithms, appear to be creating an atmosphere of hatred, even mutual hatred. how worried are you by that? i am terrified by it, completely terrified. i grew up in an era where, although there were ideological differences, people put their country first. ronald reagan sat down with tip o'neill, put the country first, bill clinton sat down with newt gingrich, put the country first. that does not exist today, and that terrifies me, because at the end of the day, whether you are electing a president, thompson, senator, congressman,
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it is about putting the country first, people first. we have good political ideology and power first, that to be as dangerous and could mean the end of democracy in the long run, because as long as we go down this path, focusing on extreme ideologies, hatred, on scaring one another, on putting power before people, we are in a lot of trouble as a society, and that's where are headed. let's talk about ukraine and russia. please. you are an adviser to vitali klitschko, mayor of kyiv. how are you helping the image of ukraine in the world? when the war started, i was very concerned. i was very concerned for ukraine, because i've been working in ukraine for many years, as i said, my wife is ukrainian, and i saw the beauty of ukrainian culture and history. but i saw from a political point of view,
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that by and large the people did not feel that they had an identity, it ukrainian identity. when the war broke out, suddenly ukraine found its identity, and so quite frankly, there's nothing i can do to help that image. that is something they did themselves, that is something that when this war ends, the people of ukraine for generations should be very proud of. vladimir putin has said that liberalism has become obsolete. he depicts the world as a battle between a declining west, something that viktor orban speaks about, something that donald trump has spoken about as well. he wanted a divided europe. now he has a unified europe. he wanted a weakened nato. he now has a stronger nato. he wanted a weakened west. he now has a stronger west. he has reminded us why freedom matters, why democracy matters. i hope is that this war reminds us why we have to find ways of working together across political divides within democratic countries and not focus on the divisions.
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so the ideas of liberal democracy, human rights, things which among others george soros stands for, they are alive and kicking? notjust george soros, i think billions of people around the world stand for that. but george soros as well? he does, which is fantastic, and i appreciate that. again, there are a lot of things he stands for but i disagree with politically and ideologically, but there are places where we can always find common ground, and if that means liberal democracy and human rights is one of the places we can find common ground, i would be happy to have a coffee with him and talk to him about it. you have helped many politicians emerge as strong leaders. how should a leader in the 21st century heal the divisions, reunify a country in a benign way? again, i think you need a leader who will talk to the commonality of human nature,
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someone who will be able to relate to what is important to everyone. it is not about ideology, it is about making sure people's hopes and dreams are realised, and that is the solution for diminishing this polarisation of that exist today. george birnbaum, thank you very much for speaking to us today. thank you very much. hello there. it looks like this cool and blustery wind will continue to blow through the rest of this weekend. at least, though, we're seeing some sunshine. this was the scene yesterday afternoon at sutton coldfield in the midlands. further north and particularly in the north and west of scotland, this is where we've had more cloud and some
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rather frequent and even heavy showers as well. we've got showers in the same area at the moment. the blustery wind coming in from the west or north—west and it's not particularly warm because the air is originating from around iceland or even greenland. these are the temperatures we're starting with early on sunday, so double—figure temperatures but a fresher feel for england and wales than it was at the same time on saturday. we'll see some sunshine to begin with. the cloud will bubble up. it's mostly fair weather cloud for england and wales. the odd light shower maybe for north wales, more likely in north—west england. some showers developing in northern ireland and particularly again in scotland, where some could be heavy and possibly even thundery as well. strongest winds will be in scotland. blustery everywhere. temperatures on the cool side. 17 scotland, northern ireland to a high of 22 in the south—east of england. and even as we head into the beginning of next week, we've still got those rather cool and blustery winds around as well. that weather front continues to bring some wet weather in the far north of scotland. elsewhere, there'll be some sunshine but we're likely to find more showers breaking out and we could see a spell of wet weather pushing its way
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eastwards over the irish sea and eastwards across england and wales to give some late showers for the first day of wimbledon. and those temperatures are still below par for this time of the year — 16—21 celsius. now, we're in cooler air for the next few days. the jet stream is to the south of the uk. the position of the jet and the strength of the jet is going to be crucial because it could develop this area of rain here into a deeper area of low pressure that could bring some stronger winds as well as some wet weather. a lot of uncertainty about the details, it has to be said, for tuesday. got some rain moving down across scotland and northern ireland, then some showers. now, it looks like the wetter weather will push eastwards across more southern and central parts of england with sunnier skies later in wales and the south—west, but things could well change. but what isn't changing is just how chilly it is going to be — 16—20 degrees — and it's going to stay cool for much of the week ahead. after tuesday, it does look a bit drier. if you're looking for any warmth, you probably have to wait until friday in the south—east.
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of a teenager shot dead live from washington, this is bbc news. more than 400 people have been arrested across france as violence continues into a fifth night. the dutch king makes a personal apology for his country's role in slavery. and visiting haiti — the un secretary general urges the international community not to forget about the country in the grip of gang violence. i'm helena humphrey. we start in france where more than 400 people have now been arrested as unrest continues into a fifth night.
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