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tv   The Context  BBC News  July 19, 2023 9:00pm-9:30pm BST

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hello, i'm christian fraser. and this is the context. it shows that if the government and bank of england are prepared to take difficult decisions, we can win the battle against inflation. but nonetheless, for families up and down the country, prices are rising much too fast, there's a long way to go. there are still big challenges out there. we need to stabilise the economy, because whether it's your energy bills, the weekly food shop or, indeed, increasingly, mortgages and rents, they're going through the roof and people's wages just aren't keeping pace with that. the bacon and the gammon products since the turn of the year, _ they've gone up considerably. we are finding they're levelling, but i don't feel we're _ going to find a decrease.
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welcome back. some better news on inflation today, but why is the uk still lagging behind the rest? and what do today's figures mean to the cost of living? we will discuss that further tonight our with our panel, we will discuss that further tonight with our panel, the independent�*s sketch writer tom peck and republican strategist maura gillespie. i'm sure they will have a view on this. mobile phone footage which shows the russian mercenary leader yevgeny prigozhin in belarus — the first time we have seen him since the failed mutiny last month. and is there a greenlash under way, a self—serving revolt over the cost of a green transition? so, do we dare to believe that we are past the worst?
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audio loss average price today is about £1.43 price a litre — this time last year, it was a bit below £1.90. let's get the export of expert's view. mohamed el—erian is chief economic adviser at allianz and president of queens�* college cambridge. thank you very much for being with us. what do you see in today's figures? us. what do you see in today's fi . ures? , , us. what do you see in today's fiaures? , , ., ., , figures? first, it is good news relates to _ figures? first, it is good news relates to what _ figures? first, it is good news relates to what we _ figures? first, it is good news relates to what we expected. | figures? first, it is good news- relates to what we expected. and thatis relates to what we expected. and that is a change. for the last four months, we have had worse news than we expected, so it is good news that inflation is coming down, both at the headline number and the core level, but we should 19 carried away. it is still way too high at
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7.9%. it hits the poor particular hard. food inflation is above 17% still. and relative to other countries, our inflation rate is still too high. it is good news, it is not great news, but it is good news. �* , . , news. and it is lagging behind the other g7 countries, _ news. and it is lagging behind the other g7 countries, which - news. and it is lagging behind the other g7 countries, which is - news. and it is lagging behind the other g7 countries, which is the i other g7 countries, which is the real concern. why is that? some technical issues _ real concern. why is that? some technical issues to _ real concern. why is that? some technical issues to do _ real concern. why is that? some technical issues to do with - real concern. why is that? some i technical issues to do with timing, but there are some deeper issues. one is the things we import from europe have become less efficient, less cost—effective, because of brexit stopped two, our labour market is tighter, our wages are going up faster than they are in europe. and then, three, our domestic response i , the ability of the private sector to respond to high prices, is less than in the us for example where inflation is down to 3%. these are
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reasons that are not going to go away any time soon and they stretch the need notjust to focus on the bank of england, in terms of what it is doing, but also on the government in terms of what it is doing to improve the labour market and energy and productivity. the improve the labour market and energy and productivity-— and productivity. the obr said last week that we _ and productivity. the obr said last week that we have _ and productivity. the obr said last week that we have the _ and productivity. the obr said last week that we have the wrong - and productivity. the obr said last week that we have the wrong kind | and productivity. the obr said last i week that we have the wrong kind of inflation compared with other countries, so wages are not rising fast enough to generate the additional tax revenues that the chancellor needs. is that the problem, that now underpins the british economy? and how do you solve that?— british economy? and how do you solve that? , ., ., , ., , solve that? there is a real problem that wa . es solve that? there is a real problem that wages have _ solve that? there is a real problem that wages have been _ solve that? there is a real problem that wages have been eroded - solve that? there is a real problem that wages have been eroded in - solve that? there is a real probleml that wages have been eroded in real terms, meaning that whatever you earn, you are buying less with it, your purchasing power has been taken away from you by inflation, because wage growth has not been the same as inflation. but then opinions differ after that factual statement. there are those who say that's a good thing because the last thing we need
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is a wage price spiral and there are those that say that's a bad thing because it also means that our growth will be lowered and our standard of living will be lower. the reality is, it points to the need for many measures to bring down inflation and notjust focusing on one. otherwise we risk bringing down inflation at the cost of a recession. and that would be really bad because, first, you have your pay cheque you know a bike inflation and then you have your pay cheque disappear. so that is not a good way of doing it, but that is the risk we face if we focus simply on one tool, which is interest rates. let face if we focus simply on one tool, which is interest rates.— which is interest rates. let me brina in which is interest rates. let me bring in our — which is interest rates. let me bring in our panel— which is interest rates. let me bring in our panel on - which is interest rates. let me bring in our panel on this, - which is interest rates. let me bring in our panel on this, if i l bring in our panel on this, if i can. tom, really important week politically. we've got our super thursday, three by elections around the country. you cannot keep taxes high and tell people to be patient and not see any benefit for your mortgage rate going up. does this give the government a bit of a shot
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in the arm? it give the government a bit of a shot in the arm?— give the government a bit of a shot in the arm? , ., , , in the arm? it is obsolete good news for ou in the arm? it is obsolete good news for you sunak _ in the arm? it is obsolete good news for you sunak in _ in the arm? it is obsolete good news for you sunak in the _ in the arm? it is obsolete good news for you sunak in the sense _ in the arm? it is obsolete good news for you sunak in the sense that - in the arm? it is obsolete good news for you sunak in the sense that he i for you sunak in the sense that he promised — for you sunak in the sense that he promised at the start of the year that he _ promised at the start of the year that he would cut inflation by half by the _ that he would cut inflation by half by the end of it, but he made that promise because it was forecast to be an_ promise because it was forecast to be an extremely easy promised to keep her~ — be an extremely easy promised to keep her. and has been harder to keep— keep her. and has been harder to keep that — keep her. and has been harder to keep that he thought and it shows that maybe he will achieve it, but the main — that maybe he will achieve it, but the main point is what has happened has nothing to do with any decision made _ has nothing to do with any decision made by— has nothing to do with any decision made by him. you have jeremy hunt talk about— made by him. you have jeremy hunt talk about what governments can achieve _ talk about what governments can achieve if— talk about what governments can achieve if they make courageous decisions — achieve if they make courageous decisions. he has not made any courageous decisions for the eye talks— courageous decisions for the eye talks to — courageous decisions for the eye talks to a — courageous decisions for the eye talks to a friend of mine who is the chief uk _ talks to a friend of mine who is the chief uk economist for a very well—known ink and he said, you cut inflation _ well—known ink and he said, you cut inflation if— well—known ink and he said, you cut inflation if your central bank by raising — inflation if your central bank by raising interest rates. by the government, what you do is you raise taxes _ government, what you do is you raise taxes or— government, what you do is you raise taxes or cut _ government, what you do is you raise taxes or cut public spending, neither— taxes or cut public spending, neither of which he has the clinical capitat— neither of which he has the clinical capital to— neither of which he has the clinical capital to do, but they would just take credit for achievements by the bank of— take credit for achievements by the bank of england essentially —— neither— bank of england essentially —— neither of— bank of england essentially —— neither of which he has the political— neither of which he has the political capital to do. the cause
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is brexit— political capital to do. the cause is brexit and you have a chancellor who campaigned for remain, knows brexit— who campaigned for remain, knows brexit is— who campaigned for remain, knows brexit is a _ who campaigned for remain, knows brexit is a terrible idea but does not have — brexit is a terrible idea but does not have the courage to say that, he 'ust not have the courage to say that, he just has— not have the courage to say that, he just has the — not have the courage to say that, he just has the courage to say he has done _ just has the courage to say he has done courageous things when he has not. tate— done courageous things when he has not. ~ ., done courageous things when he has not. . . . , ., ' done courageous things when he has not. . . ' ., not. we are celebrating 7.9 today. you look at _ not. we are celebrating 7.9 today. you look at us _ not. we are celebrating 7.9 today. you look at us inflation _ not. we are celebrating 7.9 today. you look at us inflation numbers, | you look at us inflation numbers, they were comparatively low at 3% last week, the slowest pace in nearly two years, which does suggest the fed's aggressive tactics on interest rates, perhaps more than the bank of england, has worked, and yet they have common with a lot of stick from your side, from the republicans. it stick from your side, from the republicans— stick from your side, from the reublicans. ., . republicans. it is a balancing act to avoid a recession _ republicans. it is a balancing act to avoid a recession but - republicans. it is a balancing act to avoid a recession but what - republicans. it is a balancing act to avoid a recession but what is. to avoid a recession but what is problematic— to avoid a recession but what is problematic is _ to avoid a recession but what is problematic is that _ to avoid a recession but what is problematic is that food - to avoid a recession but what is problematic is that food is - to avoid a recession but what is problematic is that food is stilll to avoid a recession but what is i problematic is that food is still up month— problematic is that food is still up month over— problematic is that food is still up month over month _ problematic is that food is still up month over month of— problematic is that food is still up month over month of energy - problematic is that food is still up. month over month of energy prices are still— month over month of energy prices are still up— month over month of energy prices are still up month _ month over month of energy prices are still up month over— month over month of energy prices are still up month over month, - are still up month over month, housing — are still up month over month, housing prices— are still up month over month, housing prices are _ are still up month over month, housing prices are still- are still up month over month, housing prices are still up - are still up month over month, i housing prices are still up month over— housing prices are still up month over month _ housing prices are still up month over month of _ housing prices are still up month over month of is _ housing prices are still up month over month of is why— housing prices are still up month over month of is why what - housing prices are still up monthj over month of is why what you're seeing _ over month of is why what you're seeing the — over month of is why what you're seeing the republicans _ over month of is why what you're seeing the republicans react- over month of is why what you're seeing the republicans react to, | over month of is why what you're i seeing the republicans react to, not the core _ seeing the republicans react to, not the core inflation _ seeing the republicans react to, not the core inflation going _ seeing the republicans react to, not the core inflation going down, - seeing the republicans react to, not the core inflation going down, it - seeing the republicans react to, not the core inflation going down, it is i the core inflation going down, it is their— the core inflation going down, it is their frustrations _ the core inflation going down, it is their frustrations over— the core inflation going down, it is their frustrations over prices - the core inflation going down, it isj their frustrations over prices being hi-h their frustrations over prices being high on _ their frustrations over prices being high on those _ their frustrations over prices being high on those three _ their frustrations over prices being
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high on those three main - their frustrations over prices being high on those three main things i their frustrations over prices being i high on those three main things that are actually— high on those three main things that are actually impacted _ high on those three main things that are actually impacted their - are actually impacted their constituents. _ are actually impacted their constituents.— are actually impacted their constituents. . ., ~ ., ., constituents. can we talk about what the banks do — constituents. can we talk about what the banks do next? _ constituents. can we talk about what the banks do next? we're _ constituents. can we talk about what the banks do next? we're talking - the banks do next? we're talking about the fed there, you look at america, there still a tight labour market, wage growth is a bit sluggish. does the fed think inflation concerns have gone away in america and think again about what it does next month, because of course the bank of england does tend to follow suit was yellow the fed — — follow —— follow suit? -- follow suit? the fed has in a hue -- follow suit? the fed has in a huge weight. — -- follow suit? the fed has in a huge weight, first _ -- follow suit? the fed has in a huge weight, first in _ -- follow suit? the fed has in a huge weight, first in 2021, - -- follow suit? the fed has in a huge weight, first in 2021, kept| huge weight, first in 2021, kept repeating that inflation is transitory, because it conveys this notion of temporary and reversible the meaning, don't worry about it, so we lost a good 7—8 months. that was mistake number one. mistake number two happened at the beginning of this year when chair powell believed the dip in inflation you're getting in the beginning of the year was going to last, so there now
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burns twice, and very cautious, so they will keep on saying that the inflation battle is not won when —— and when they meet next week they will increase interest rates again by quarter percentage point. that will be the 14th time massaro the 11th time, in 12 meetings they have done that. —— sorry, the 11th time. and they'll keep adding. the marketplace believes you do not need anything after that, but we will wait to hear what they think. just before i wait to hear what they think. just before i let _ wait to hear what they think. just before i let you _ wait to hear what they think. just before i let you go, the point that tom made, the chancellor is talking about tough decisions they made. is he right? is it really the central banks that mostly have done the work here, the heavy lifting, or are there some decisions you could point to that the government might take credit for? the to that the government might take credit for? . ., ~ to that the government might take credit for? . . ,, ., , credit for? the central bank has done most _ credit for? the central bank has done most of _ credit for? the central bank has done most of the _ credit for? the central bank has done most of the heavy - credit for? the central bank has done most of the heavy lifting, | credit for? the central bank has . done most of the heavy lifting, and the bank of england has been criticised for what that has done to mortgage rates for example, was a
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—— which is a real issue for households. the government has refrained from doing things that would hurt. they have not increased spending, they have not cut taxes. they've also started, and i want to say started because we have not seen the impact yet the efforts to improve the functioning of the labour market, bringing more people into the river market, to help on that side, and they are also trying to improve the energy situation. but tom is right. if you look at who has delivered most in terms of ledgers, effective measures, it has been the bank of england.— bank of england. yeah, and in america and — bank of england. yeah, and in america and also _ bank of england. yeah, and in america and also here - bank of england. yeah, and in america and also here in - bank of england. yeah, and in america and also here in the i bank of england. yeah, and in i america and also here in the uk, approval ratings for the conservatives and joe biden are suffering as a result. it is really good to see you. thank you for coming on so late. we really do appreciate it. coming on so late. we really do appreciate it-— so, yevgeny prigozhin has reappeared — sort of.
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there is a video circulating on social media today in which he is seen addressing wagnerfighters in belarus. it has been filmed in the dark, but the silhouette is familiar, and so too is the rhetoric. the wagner leader speaking his mind about the situation on the front line in ukraine, describing it as a "disgrace", which would seem to imply further criticism of the russian leadership, although no names are mentioned. it is all truly bizarre. and be assured even the head of m16 views it as an extraordinary set of events. the day that we saw, that particular saturday when prigozhin made his move, his extended road trip through rostov and approaching moscow, was extraordinary. if you look at putin's behaviours on that day, prigozhin started off, i think, as a traitor at breakfast, he had been pardoned by supper, and then a few days later, he was invited for tea. so there are some things that even the chief of m16 finds a little bit difficult to try and interpret, in terms of who's in and who's out.
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in other parts of his speech today, sir richard set out a withering assault on putin's regime, describing russia as an "unstable autocracy" whose "inexorable decay" has been exposed by prigozhin's recent mutiny. our security correspondent frank gardner was watching. this was quite a revealing speech by sir richard moore, the chief of m16, because he only makes one public appearance each year, one public speech, and this was it. he's chosen prague because it's 55 years since russian tanks, soviet tanks at the time, rolled into czechoslovakia and crushed what was called the prague spring. and he said there was a similar kind of disillusionment at the time. at the time, there were a number of russians that were appalled by that. and he said what's happening now is that there are... he didn't specify the number, but a certain number of russian people in sensitive places. so these could be military officials, diplomats, intelligence officials, who are appalled at the ukraine
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invasion and the assault on a fellow slavic country. and they are, of course, ripe for recruitment. normally, there are different ways of recruiting people. the reasons people get recruited as spies or as defectors or double agents, it's often money. they can be hacked off with their career not going anywhere. but in this particular case, it seems to be ideological. and he was very interesting, actually, aboutjune the 24th, which was the day of the mercenary march on moscow. he said, look, you know, you might think that, as head of britain's secret intelligence service, i'm supposed to know everything. but he said, no, i was absolutely baffled, he said, by that, by what was going on there. they got to within 120 miles, 200 kilometres, of moscow. and president putin, he said, has had to cut a humiliating deal with wagner. he didn't dare confront them openly because wagner are heroes in many people's eyes in russia. so it has put him in a very
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difficult position. but he made one thing really clear, which is that he did not want to see the collapse of the russian government or the russian regime of putin, even — he just simply would like, like every other western leader, russia to pull its troops out of ukraine, and that would solve a lot of things. we were grips today because he'll mystique once a year, sir richard moore, and we were all hoping you lift the lid on when ashley went on —— he only speaks once a year. no, he was agog just as the rest of us were! why do you think prigozhin is still alive? because other detractors have been shuffled off. it is mind—boggling to think that he is still alive, because of the way he embarrassed without ever putting, and quite frankly it has got to impact his relationship with lukashenko, so i cannot imagine that
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has been a welcomed arrival —— he embarrassed vladimir putin. reporting to be in charge from what it sounds like. they're making it known they are going to be there for sometime the statement reads. so it is very interesting to see how this will play out, with the relationship between belarus and russia, because they are such close allies, but i'm just as surprised to be honest. but he obviously still needs him, because prigozhin is talking in this video about sending some of his fighters to africa, some of them will stay in belarus and train the belarusian army. he serves a purpose. i am at a loss to explain what that purpose is, because surely others could do it. he what that purpose is, because surely others could do it.— others could do it. he honestly has a hold on the _ others could do it. he honestly has a hold on the men _ others could do it. he honestly has a hold on the men who _ others could do it. he honestly has a hold on the men who are - others could do it. he honestly has a hold on the men who are with - others could do it. he honestly has i a hold on the men who are with him, right? a hold on the men who are with him, riuht? he a hold on the men who are with him, right?- he has _ a hold on the men who are with him, right?- he has some _ a hold on the men who are with him, right? right. he has some kind of . ri . right? right. he has some kind of tl’l- on right? right. he has some kind of grip on them _ right? right. he has some kind of grip on them and _ right? right. he has some kind of grip on them and they _ right? right. he has some kind of grip on them and they are - right? right. he has some kind of grip on them and they are all- grip on them and they are all on board. they went to the very front, right? thinking about the risk they
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all took in standing up against putin and they stood behind him, and i guess agreed to do so again, by going with him to belarus and by being part of this mutiny, this group that is training to continue. whether that is in ukraine the more that in africa, he made note in his video or his statements that the work continues and they're going to monitor it. it is almost sort of threatening in that way, that they are threatening to use his impact, however he deems necessary. tom, james cleverly. _ however he deems necessary. tom, james cleverly, who _ however he deems necessary. tom, james cleverly, who has _ however he deems necessary. tom, james cleverly, who has been - however he deems necessary. tom, james cleverly, who has been at - however he deems necessary. tom, james cleverly, who has been at the un this week, foreign secretary, he is at the aspen institute today, speaking about the war in ukraine and he has echoed what sir richard moore was saying, it doesn't matter how putin tries to spin this, an attempted coup is never a good look and it undermines or shines a light onjust how fragile and it undermines or shines a light on just how fragile russia and it undermines or shines a light onjust how fragile russia is. that said we were discussing on the
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programme last night there are still 160,000 troops on the line and now everyone is saying we need to be patient with the counteroffensive. what do you make of it all? you have 'ust what do you make of it all? you have just shown the _ what do you make of it all? you have just shown the head _ what do you make of it all? you have just shown the head of— what do you make of it all? you have just shown the head of m16, - what do you make of it all? you have just shown the head of m16, is - what do you make of it all? you have just shown the head of m16, is one i just shown the head of m16, is one public— just shown the head of m16, is one public appearance a year, admitting he does _ public appearance a year, admitting he does not have a clue what is going _ he does not have a clue what is going on — he does not have a clue what is going on it _ he does not have a clue what is going on. it is not too much of an aggregation of duty for me to admit that i_ aggregation of duty for me to admit that i do— aggregation of duty for me to admit that i do not do silly company understand the intricacies of the putin— understand the intricacies of the putin prigozhin relationship. it is obviously— putin prigozhin relationship. it is obviously evidence that putin's inkster— obviously evidence that putin's inkster empire is crumbling, but robert _ inkster empire is crumbling, but robert mugabe's gangster empire expanded 20 years crumbling. one thing _ expanded 20 years crumbling. one thing they— expanded 20 years crumbling. one thing they did happen in the attempted coup was that putin admitted something publicly which he had not _ admitted something publicly which he had not done before it was that the doctor— had not done before it was that the doctor was— had not done before it was that the doctor was clearly —— wagner group acted _ doctor was clearly —— wagner group acted under— doctor was clearly —— wagner group acted under his instruction. these trips— acted under his instruction. these trips were — acted under his instruction. these trips were potentially loyal to the charisma — trips were potentially loyal to the charisma of prigozhin, so be it, but the money—
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charisma of prigozhin, so be it, but the money is — charisma of prigozhin, so be it, but the money is not coming from him, it is coming _ the money is not coming from him, it is coming from putin, so if these fighters — is coming from putin, so if these fighters are _ is coming from putin, so if these fighters are going to belarus, they are mercenaries, they're not going for free _ are mercenaries, they're not going for free if— are mercenaries, they're not going for free. if they are going to belarus. _ for free. if they are going to belarus, the money must be coming from somewhere, so the relationship you have _ from somewhere, so the relationship you have to— from somewhere, so the relationship you have to think is not entirely over~ _ you have to think is not entirely over. ., ., you have to think is not entirely over, ., ., ., you have to think is not entirely over. ., ., ., ., over. you got to figure about the instability they _ over. you got to figure about the instability they could _ over. you got to figure about the instability they could so - over. you got to figure about the instability they could so in - over. you got to figure about the | instability they could so in africa. they have done it before. a lot of them were in sudan, where there is a lot of gold, and it is that gold funding some of the war in ukraine, so they will be countries in africa listening to that from thinking, here we go again?— here we go again? they are operating- _ here we go again? they are operating. that _ here we go again? they are operating. that is _ here we go again? they are operating. that is what - here we go again? they are operating. that is what i'm| here we go again? they are - operating. that is what i'm trying to say, _ operating. that is what i'm trying to say, it — operating. that is what i'm trying to say, it is — operating. that is what i'm trying to say, it is now clear it is not in any— to say, it is now clear it is not in any way— to say, it is now clear it is not in any way deniable that they are operating under prutton's direct instruction and clearly, putin's empire — instruction and clearly, putin's empire is _ instruction and clearly, putin's empire is not as strong as it once was: _ empire is not as strong as it once was, so _ empire is not as strong as it once was, so countries in africa who fear wagner— was, so countries in africa who fear wagner mercenaries may find this to be a boost _ wagner mercenaries may find this to be a boost to them because no one
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really _ be a boost to them because no one really knows or understands quite how wagner will be operating in three _ how wagner will be operating in three months, six months' time. around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news. bbc news — bringing you different stories from across the uk. an invasion from a galaxy far, far away, a journey from light years beyond to peterborough cathedral for its unofficial galaxies exhibition. the exhibition features rare sci—fi artefacts. that is actually a star wars script signed by david prowse, actually the original darth vader. so try to imagine that one was in his hands when he was actually shooting the movie as darth vader. i think that is one of the most interesting, actually. but the venue is the real star. because the cathedral is huge, the setup is quite a challenge, because basically from one side to the other, you walk
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three minutes — because the cathedral is just enormous. invasion of the city complete, inviting us to take a look at the dark side. for more stories from across the uk, head to the bbc news website. you're live with bbc news. i have seen one flash of news that netflix subscriptions... how many at home are trying to log on and re—log onto not flex? it was not any great surprise to me, this, because there were lots of people around the country who share their passwords and are using each other�*s accounts and, lo and behold, they have cracked down on it, 238 million! i once tried to get three of my mates to set— once tried to get three of my mates to set up— once tried to get three of my mates to set up a — once tried to get three of my mates to set up a sharing, where one of you buys— to set up a sharing, where one of you buys disney plus, another buys netflix, _ you buys disney plus, another buys netflix, so — you buys disney plus, another buys netflix, so i'm not surprised they have _ netflix, so i'm not surprised they have cracked down. how many people once they _ have cracked down. how many people once they have cracked down will
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decide, _ once they have cracked down will decide, actually, maybe i do need to buy my— decide, actually, maybe i do need to buy my own— decide, actually, maybe i do need to buy my own netflix? that is a decision for everybody to make. i think— decision for everybody to make. i think we — decision for everybody to make. i think we still pay for it even be on the next _ think we still pay for it even be on the next door room.— think we still pay for it even be on the next door room. yeah, everyone is off my account _ the next door room. yeah, everyone is off my account if— the next door room. yeah, everyone is off my account if anybody - the next door room. yeah, everyone is off my account if anybody is - is off my account if anybody is watching. and we be clear on that? we are going to need —— they are going to need the money, the studios, the mother of all strikes in hollywood. i studios, the mother of all strikes in hollywood-— in hollywood. i would think so. i thou~ht in hollywood. ! would think so. i thought we'll— in hollywood. i would think so. i thought we'll subscribe - in hollywood. i would think so. i thought we'll subscribe to - in hollywood. i would think so. i thought we'll subscribe to the i in hollywood. i would think so. i. thought we'll subscribe to the idea that sharing is caring, so i'm a little annoyed netflix has decided to go against that nice idea, but it will certainly be an issue for them, i would think. i have been kicked off one of the accounts i was on so i am feeling that pain.— off one of the accounts i was on so i am feeling that pain. yes. the me write that down, _ i am feeling that pain. yes. the me write that down, sharing _ i am feeling that pain. yes. the me write that down, sharing is - i am feeling that pain. yes. the me write that down, sharing is caring, l write that down, sharing is caring, in case they knock on my door. let's move on. there have been demonstations in kabul today. afghan women were back on the streets protesting the taliban's decision to shut down thousands of beauty salons for women.
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it didn't last very long. soon after the protest began, taliban guards fired wildly into the air and used water cannon to disperse the crowd. some of the protesters said they were tasered by the taliban guards, and who knows what further reprecussions there will be? so how should we view those events alongside the widely criticed —— so how should we view those events alongside the widely criticised comments of british conservative mp tobias ellwood? he recently visited afghanistan and later released a video in which he claims the country is "transformed". i'm here back in helmand province in afghanistan, courtesy of the halo trust. and with all that's happened here since 9/11, this is a very different country indeed. it feels different now that the taliban have returned to power. well, it may be hard to believe, but security has vastly improved. corruption is down. and the opium trade has all but disappeared. well, yesterday, mr elwood was challenged on those points
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by my colleague yalda hakim. do you think it sends a certain message when it comes to things like human rights, women's rights, if you just say, "well, they've got solar panels now, they've got less violence, and therefore we should open up our embassy and be back in the country"? you're simplifying what i'm saying. i'm saying the current strategy of us shouting from afar, to try and affect the agenda in afghanistan, is not working. we need to engage more directly, more robustly, and that can be done if we open up the embassy. shabnam nasimi is a former policy adviser to the minister for afghan resettlement and minister for refugees. she's also a human rights and girls�* education advocate. thank you for coming on the programme. mr ellwood has upset a lot of people with this video. how have his comments gone down with afghan women?— afghan women? thank you. look, i do auree afghan women? thank you. look, i do
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aaree with afghan women? thank you. look, i do agree with that — afghan women? thank you. look, i do agree with that the _ afghan women? thank you. look, i do agree with that the current _ afghan women? thank you. look, i do agree with that the current strategy i agree with that the current strategy of the uk and european countries trying to affect the agenda in afghanistan from afar is not working and that we do actually need to engage more directly and more robustly, but i think what is missing here and like tobias has really missed the mark is that he has airbrushed the ongoing cruelty of the taliban regime. i like many of the taliban regime. i like many of the taliban regime. i like many of the afghan diaspora women and men are in complete shock to hear that the taliban governance of afghanistan is being praised without mentioning that it has been 667 days since the taliban banned girls from school and shorter seven days since the taliban banned women from university, not mentioning the arbitrary arrests and shooting of former government and security personnel, public executions, not mentioning that women have been banned from working for ngos in the un. the special repertory called this gender apartheid. it was
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alarming that tobias mentioned afghanistan has for the moment accepted a more authoritarian leadership. one was the election? when was the referendum when the people's will was heard? we may have missed something here... this people's will was heard? we may have missed something here. . ._ missed something here... as you say, there are two — missed something here... as you say, there are two options _ missed something here... as you say, there are two options here. _ missed something here... as you say, there are two options here. either - there are two options here. either you can stay well away from afghanistan until they improve their ways, and improve relations have to come at they are only restored, these different medical nations, if something is given, or you go back into kabul as he is advocating and pressure from the inside, and sometimes you can only do that with personal relationships, can you? you don't form a — personal relationships, can you? gm. don't form a personal relationship with a group that is continuously oppressing its people, and for the last two years, we are coming up to two years in august of taliban rule, or they have broken all promises and they have shown no willingness to engage. what you're doing if you would do engage in open embassies in
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afghanistan, today, is you are legitimising their rule... we are out of time. _ legitimising their rule... we are out of time, sorry, _ legitimising their rule... we are out of time, sorry, we - legitimising their rule... we are out of time, sorry, we will- legitimising their rule... we are out of time, sorry, we will be i legitimising their rule... we are i out of time, sorry, we will be right back after this break, sorry. hello. i wonder if you remember what you were doing this time last year? well, chances are you were sweating. yes, it was the uk's hottest day on record — 40.3 celsius recorded in lincolnshire. fast—forward to today — what a different story. one year later, a lot of cloud around, some showers, and temperatures at best into the low 20s. now the day's showers are starting to fade away, so for many of us, the weather will become drier over the next few hours. a few showers pushing into the far north of scotland, though. quite a cool kind of night forjuly, with temperatures dipping
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down in single figures — scotland, northern ireland, wales and western areas of england. so a cool start to the day on thursday for the early—risers, but there should be plenty of dry weather and sunshine. showers will start to develop, and i think the greatest risk of seeing some of those showers will be across northern and eastern scotland, and into parts of northeast england. elsewhere, there should be some pretty big gaps between the showers — that means there'll be quite a few of you that stay dry all day. temperatures a little bit below average, but in thejuly sunshine should still feel 0k. friday, a largely dry picture with some sunshine for england and wales, but for scotland and northern ireland, this time, we'll see some thicker cloud working off the atlantic, with outbreaks of rain pushing in from the west through the day. those temperatures struggling — 16—17 degrees, not great in the north, and even 21 in london, that's still 2—3 degrees below average forjuly. the jet stream pattern this weekend, well, we keep the trough to the west of the uk that keeps our weather unsettled. it's this ridge in the jet stream that's been responsible for the extreme heat in europe and, if anything, that ridge is moving a little bit further eastwards — and so too will the highest temperatures. so, we're starting to see some indications that we could see some extreme heat in parts of greece this
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weekend, maybe even getting quite close to the all—time european temperature record. we'll keep a close eye on that. no chance of anything particularly hot, though, for the uk this weekend. it will, though, be particularly wet — and particularly for england and wales, outbreaks of rain moving in here, becoming heavy and persistent, and lasting right into sunday. scotland and northern ireland on saturday, yes, you get some rain, as well. wherever you are, it'll tend to be on the cool side, with temperatures for many of us around 17—18 celsius. but at least for scotland and northern ireland, the rain should pull away a little bit on sunday to allow something a bit brighter into the afternoon. and then, next week, well, we've got some further showers in the forecast. that's it for now.
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