everything worked for zak crawley. a vindication of his approach, it's why the crowd rise to him, why england keep selecting him. 189 to put england in the lead, and he made the australians look human. i always believed i had good knocks in me, i never doubted my best was good enough, it was just that stuff in between, i was a little bit inconsistent, and i don't mind the inconsistency as long as i can produce days like today. yeah, bat brave, and crawley had excellent company. joe root�*s sparkling 84 included his speciality shot. england will resume 67 runs ahead. there's loads of time left in the test, unless you look at the weather forecast. joe wilson, bbc news, at sunny old trafford. time for a look at the weather, here's tomasz schafernaker. sarnie for now at old trafford! the

jet stream is going to be responsible for very wet weather come the weekend. in fact, we could see a month of rainfall in just a couple of days, but at the moment the jet stream is south of us, and that means the cooler air streaming in from the northern climes, that is how it will stay, we will be predominantly in the cool north atlantic air. this is the rainfall accumulation over the next few days and into monday, noticed that central parts of the uk, we are nudging into that teal colour, 50—60 millimetres of rain, just about 48 hours or so, but not through tonight or tomorrow, tonight isjust hours or so, but not through tonight or tomorrow, tonight is just a hours or so, but not through tonight or tomorrow, tonight isjust a case of a few showers across northern ireland and northern england, and a lot of dry weather with clear spells, as low as 6 degrees in rural spots

a triple threat for number 10, as many conservatives fear they face the biggest by—election reverse for any sitting government in half a century. conservatives acknowledge a "very challenging set" of by elections but could they really lose all three in very distinct geographies within england, including two of its safest seats, and the seat of the former pm? and where does that take them, their policies, and the opposition's strategy? we will speak to all three main parties, and are live in all three by—election constituencies.

tories believe they have lost all three contests. i was mauled on the doorstep, one tory mp told me. and why rishi sunak will be hoping to avoid an historically bad night and comparisons to harold wilson. also tonight: a newsnight investigation into the row inside academia over controversial abortion research published here that's shaping us law. what happened when an independent panel called for it to be withdrawn? the royal college of psychiatrists are the owner of the journ and journal and said they were not prepared for that to happen. so both of us that were on that panel that were part of that investigation felt were part of that investigation felt we had to resign. and grain prices surge after the collapse of russia—ukraine export deal that helped avert famines last year. what are the consequences for the global south of stopping the supply of key crops?

we speak to the world food programme. good evening. 53%, 56%, 60% - those are the conservative vote shares at the last general election for the seats where counting has begun. it is quite an exraordinary state of affairs that all three are up for grabs tonight. there are very big questions notjust for the pm, but also for the opposition, as returing officers crack open the ballot boxes to count the votes. in north yorkshire, in somerset and in uxbridge, former home of borisjohnson. in a moment we'll be speaking to david simmonds who's at the count in uxbridge. labour party chair anneliese dodds. at the somerset and frome count is christine jardine, the lib dem spokeswoman for the cabinet office, women and equalities and scotland. and nick watt will be joining us from selby in a moment, but firstjoe's here to explain what's at stake.

the prime minister is facing a trim by—election, butjudging by the mood of some of his mps, you would think it is a triple bypass. some times these by—elections are boring, but occasionally they disstill a mood, a moment or a shift. there are examples of snp supporters and winnie ewing's win. and the sdlp�*s shirley williams overturned a big tory majority. hartlepool boasted boris johnson's tory majority. hartlepool boasted borisjohnson's reputation as governments rarely gain seats. keir starmer proved injune he could win back a red wall seat and the liberal

democrats say taking seats off the tories are evidence of their resurgence. keep an eye on swing, on turn out and tactical voting. but why are we so intrigued about tonight? obviously because we have three by—elections in seats the government is defending happening all on one day. but what makes it more fascinating is that these are taking place in three very drcht different parts of the country. uxbridge is the one labour should win, borisjohnson's old seat has a smallish majority. they only need a swing of 7.5 percentage points. there have been some demographic shifts as younger families move. but there are a lot of motorists and siddique khan's emission zone is divisive. and the yorkshire a larger

conservative majority means a bigger swing is needed of about 18 percentage points. if labour win this tectonic plates could be shifting. if youlike if this tectonic plates could be shifting. if youlike— this tectonic plates could be shifting. if youlike if you look at the successes _ shifting. if youlike if you look at the successes of _ shifting. if youlike if you look at the successes of tony _ shifting. if youlike if you look at the successes of tony blair, - shifting. if youlike if you look at the successes of tony blair, the labour managed swings of over 20%. that is what, we should be looking for double figure swings and for labour swings closer to 20% than 10%. labour swings closer to 20% than 1096. �* labour swings closer to 2096 than 1096. �* , labour swings closer to 2096 than 1096. ~ , a ., y 1096. and then the west country. the assumption — 1096. and then the west country. the assumption is _ 1096. and then the west country. the assumption is the _ 1096. and then the west country. the assumption is the liberal— 1096. and then the west country. the assumption is the liberal democrats| assumption is the liberal democrats are the challengers in froome, because they held that seat between 97 and 15. they would need a 15% swing. but if the liberal democrats do win it, a word of caution about the significance uk—wide. in

do win it, a word of caution about the significance uk-wide. in truth it won't necessarily _ the significance uk-wide. in truth it won't necessarily tell _ the significance uk-wide. in truth it won't necessarily tell us - the significance uk-wide. in truth it won't necessarily tell us as - the significance uk-wide. in truth | it won't necessarily tell us as much about the national situation, because despite the occasional by—election success, on high swings, there is no consistent evidence in there is no consistent evidence in the national opinion polls of liberal democrats advancing on the 11, 12% they got in 2019.— 11, 1296 they got in 2019. where could the drama _ 11, 1296 they got in 2019. where could the drama leave - 11, 1296 they got in 2019. where could the drama leave this - 11, 12% they got in 2019. where | could the drama leave this man? 11, 12% they got in 2019. where - could the drama leave this man? the rishi sunak wins any of the three, i think he will chalk that up as a victory. if not he bill the first prime minister to lose three by—election seats on the same day since 1968 and harold wilson and two years later he lost the general election. let's speak to nick. nick, you're in selby. how are the parties saying how they have done overrall? well, there is a different mood in each of the parties. for the conservatives it is gloom. they think they are going to lose all three seats. for the labour party cautious, they think they will just

get over the line in uxbridge, boris johnson's old seat. in selby, they say that is too close to call. for the liberal democrats smiles on theirfaces, they think the liberal democrats smiles on their faces, they think they will do well in somerton and froome. the conservatives think their problem is they're not managing to turn out their vote. they think the problem is high inflation and the legacy of the liz truss government. on the the up the liz truss government. on the the up side they say there is zero switching from labour to conservative and it could be a different story come the general election. and also they're confident that boris johnson election. and also they're confident that borisjohnson is now history and nobody is objecting to rishi sunak on the doorsteps. for labour, they believe that in uxbridge their vote is coming out in the right areas. here in this seat, a 20,000 majority nor the conservatives, so they don't have much of a presence. they don't have the data, but

they're too cautious to say they have got it. for the liberal democrats, somerton and froome was their seat until 2015, they think they're doing well there and they will be saying tomorrow they're now backin will be saying tomorrow they're now back in their old heartland of the west country. back in their old heartland of the west country-— west country. some classic expectations _ west country. some classic| expectations management, west country. some classic - expectations management, give your view of the by—elections. i4141431111 expectations management, give your view of the by-elections._ view of the by-elections. well let's start here in _ view of the by-elections. well let's start here in selby, _ view of the by-elections. well let's start here in selby, it _ view of the by-elections. well let's start here in selby, it has - view of the by-elections. well let's start here in selby, it has been - start here in selby, it has been held by the conservatives since 2010. a 20,000 majority last time. labour thought it was a labour/conservative race and the conservatives would win it. it took them a week to say, hey, this not looking bad and they shifted resources up here from uxbridge, high hopes that would be a big win. in uxbridge they started thinking we should be ok, it is a 7,000 majority for borisjohnson at the last election. we should do that. then

the data looked bad, because of anger over ulez. it looked bad. in the last two weeks the data has looked betterfor the last two weeks the data has looked better for labour and they're confident. forthe looked better for labour and they're confident. for the liberal democrats in somerton and froome, everyone started that campaign thinking they would win it and everyone is ending it thinking they will win it. rumours of reshuffles, where does politics go from here? yes. rumours of reshuffles, where does politics go from here?— politics go from here? yes, well, obviously. _ politics go from here? yes, well, obviously. big — politics go from here? yes, well, obviously, big impact _ politics go from here? yes, well, obviously, big impact on - politics go from here? yes, well, obviously, big impact on the - obviously, big impact on the reshuffle. rishi sunak would like to have a reshuffle. he has been working on a reshuffle. the problem is the by—election are getting in the way. i was talking to one of his allies who had a conversation with the prime minister about the reshuchl shuffle and the view is it would be good for governance to have the reshuffle now as parliament breaks for the summer recess and they will be across their briefs by they will be across their briefs by the autumn. good for governance, but

not good for politics, because if you do it now, it could look like it was a panicked reaction to what this cabinet minister described to me as what a widely expected to be disastrous by—elections for the conservatives. disastrous by-elections for the conservatives.— disastrous by-elections for the conservatives. we are hoping to talk to david simmonds. with me now is anneliese dodds the mp and labour party chair and christine jardine. anneliese dodds, your chances of winning, it will be disappointed if you don't win now?— winning, it will be disappointed if you don't win now? good evening, well actually _ you don't win now? good evening, well actually we _ you don't win now? good evening, well actually we have _ you don't win now? good evening, well actually we have a _ you don't win now? good evening, well actually we have a situation . well actually we have a situation here of three constituencies that have never returned a labour mp. if labour were to win in uxbridge that

would require a bigger swing than we even had in the 97 landslide election. if we win in selby, it would require the biggest swing to labour ever in a by—election. so these are incredibly challenging elections for labour. but i think what ever the result one thing is very clear and it has been clear to me when i have been speaking with people on the doorstep that there will be people in the election who will be people in the election who will be people in the election who will be voting labour for the first time. they can see that keir starmer has turned the labour party around, that the labour party is in the service of working people, and i think that will definitely be the case whatever the eventual result from these by—elections. case whatever the eventual result from these by-elections.- case whatever the eventual result from these by-elections. some of our re ”ortin from these by-elections. some of our reporting in — from these by-elections. some of our reporting in the _ from these by-elections. some of our reporting in the field _ from these by-elections. some of our reporting in the field there _ reporting in the field there suggests, well, maybe you are winning over them, but the conservative vote is staying at home? ~ ., , conservative vote is staying at home? . ., , ., ., home? well, actually i have found many people _ home? well, actually i have found many people are _ home? well, actually i have found many people are really _ home? well, actually i have found many people are really listening . many people are really listening carefully to labour's message when we have had that dialogue and we are

having an open dialogue with voters about the issues that they care about. as i said, people are see labour is a credible government in waiting and particularly on the issues that the conservatives were desperate to run away from during the by—elections. they can see that labour's offering something very different indeed. on the cost—of—living crisis, on the crisis of crime on our streets, the crisis in our nhs, labour has very clear plans to set our country back on the right path to support people right now, no plans coming from the conservatives at all.— now, no plans coming from the conservatives at all. let's bring in christine jardine. _ conservatives at all. let's bring in christine jardine. you _ conservatives at all. let's bring in christine jardine. you have - conservatives at all. let's bring in christine jardine. you have a - conservatives at all. let's bring in | christine jardine. you have a habit christine jardine. you have a habit of calling these by—elections early doors have you won in somerset and froome? �* ., ., ., froome? don't want to go counting any chickens — froome? don't want to go counting any chickens too _ froome? don't want to go counting any chickens too early, _ froome? don't want to go counting any chickens too early, but - froome? don't want to go counting any chickens too early, but we - froome? don't want to go counting any chickens too early, but we are l any chickens too early, but we are confident — any chickens too early, but we are confident. we have had a very positive — confident. we have had a very positive response on the doors and i think. _ positive response on the doors and i

think. you _ positive response on the doors and i think, you know, iwould positive response on the doors and i think, you know, i would say quietly confident, _ think, you know, i would say quietly confident, but we are not being too quiet _ confident, but we are not being too quiet about— confident, but we are not being too quiet about it. we are confident that we — quiet about it. we are confident that we will see a result in our favoun — that we will see a result in our favour. and that would be huge. it is a 19,000 — favour. and that would be huge. it is a 19,000 majority that the conservatives are defending. it would — conservatives are defending. it would take a 15% swing. if you think about— would take a 15% swing. if you think about the _ would take a 15% swing. if you think about the fact that there are about 30 conservative mps in the south of england _ 30 conservative mps in the south of england who have demand a 10% swing to beat _ england who have demand a 10% swing to beat them, you see the significance of us winning here tonight, — significance of us winning here tonight, if we do in somerton and froome — tonight, if we do in somerton and froome it — tonight, if we do in somerton and froome. it could make a massive difference — froome. it could make a massive difference to the next parliament. we will _ difference to the next parliament. we will put this to the serve mp when me get him. —— conservative mp when me get him. —— conservative mp when he get him. he is stuck in traffic. the christine, you have benefitted, some argue, in somerton from the low profile of the greens and labour party, some suggestion they are not trying hard. do you think the back door co—operation is what you need more generally? i110. think the back door co—operation is what you need more generally? ha. i what you need more generally? no, i think what we — what you need more generally? no, i think what we have _ what you need more generally? no, i think what we have seen _ what you need more generally? no, i think what we have seen in _ what you need more generally? no, i think what we have seen in somerton is people _ think what we have seen in somerton is people who voted conservatives all is people who voted conservatives att their—

is people who voted conservatives all their lives are fed up with this conservative government being out of touch with _ conservative government being out of touch with the problems that they face _ touch with the problems that they face. with high mortgages, inflation that is— face. with high mortgages, inflation that is still— face. with high mortgages, inflation that is still too high. the nhs is in crisis — that is still too high. the nhs is in crisis. education is in crisis. that— in crisis. education is in crisis. that is— in crisis. education is in crisis. that is what— in crisis. education is in crisis. that is what we are seeing here, people _ that is what we are seeing here, people turning to the liberal democrats, because they know sarah bike, she _ democrats, because they know sarah bike, she has run a fantastic campaign, she is from a local farming — campaign, she is from a local farming family and they see the amount— farming family and they see the amount of work she has done. and they know— amount of work she has done. and they know that liberal democrat mps work for _ they know that liberal democrat mps work for their chunt. community what we have _ work for their chunt. community what we have seen are people who are fed up we have seen are people who are fed up and _ we have seen are people who are fed up and looking for an alternative. sounding — up and looking for an alternative. sounding confident there in somerton, christinejardine, anneliese dodds would you co—operate in some way with other opposition parties against the conservatives? well, i have to say that when there has been talk of pacts, or back room

deals, that is the generally come from the conservatives, to distract from the conservatives, to distract from their own chaos. actually labour has a strong candidate in somerton, neil geldy who understanding local transport and services in t area and we want to set out the clear plans, keir�*s missions for our country, an end to sticking plaster politics. let’s sticking plaster politics. let's talk about — sticking plaster politics. let's talk about that _ sticking plaster politics. let's talk about that anneliese - sticking plaster politics. let's talk about that anneliese dodds. the criticism would be all we hear from labour is hauer what you are not going to do. why have you ruled out expanding benefits to third and fourth children? i think that labour saying we are determined to shatter the class ceiling for our children in school is a really clear commitment, and we have said for example we are

determined to put in breakfast clubs for every primary school child, that is critical for their educational development, it is critical for counterling food poverty and it is critical for their families so they can access work, because so many people right now simply can't afford childcare. faith they can't afford the services. labour is setting out those plans. the services. labour is setting out those plans-— the services. labour is setting out those lans. ., , , ., . those plans. scrapping the two child oli is those plans. scrapping the two child policy is essential _ those plans. scrapping the two child policy is essential to _ those plans. scrapping the two child policy is essential to stop _ those plans. scrapping the two child policy is essential to stop people - policy is essential to stop people going to food banks do you agree with that now?— going to food banks do you agree with that now? well, look, we have been really — with that now? well, look, we have been really clear— with that now? well, look, we have been really clear that _ with that now? well, look, we have been really clear that if _ with that now? well, look, we have been really clear that if labour - with that now? well, look, we have been really clear that if labour is i been really clear that if labour is to come into government, as i hope that we will, we will inherent a very difficult fiscal situation, the conservatives have caused immense damage to our public finances, they crashed the economy last year, and labour's been very, very clear on this, we will not make unfunded promises, we know the damage from doing, liz truss did that and added

hundreds on to people's mortgages and we learned today many of those engaged in that process are receiving severance pay under the conservatives, that is the difference.— conservatives, that is the difference. ., , ., difference. you sent a letter in 2020 to boris _ difference. you sent a letter in 2020 to boris johnson - difference. you sent a letter in i 2020 to boris johnson suggesting 2020 to borisjohnson suggesting that this two child policy, that scrapping the policy was essential to stopping people and kids going to food bank, do you not agree with that any more?— that any more? there is so many thins that any more? there is so many things that _ that any more? there is so many things that the conservatives - that any more? there is so many. things that the conservatives have done that have been incredibly damaging to families, i could list many of them, in fact i could probably spend hours doing that, policies that have been damaging to families that have been damaging to our country, but labour's been really clear, we know we will inherit, if we come into government, an incredibly challenging set of fiscal circumstances, the conservatives crashed the economy last year, but, even beyond that for the last 13 years they have run downturn finances and we are not

going to make unfunded promises, thatis going to make unfunded promises, that is no good for anybody and not good for those on low incomes because they have suffered the most from the conservative economic chaos. . . from the conservative economic chaos. , , , . ,, chaos. let us bring christine back in, i chaos. let us bring christine back in. i don't — chaos. let us bring christine back in, i don't know— chaos. let us bring christine back in, i don't know if— chaos. let us bring christine back in, i don't know if you _ chaos. let us bring christine back in, i don't know if you heard - in, i don't know if you heard professorjohn curtice saying there was no convincing evidence your local by—election victories round temperatures place, you are advancing nationally, you were stuck on 11—2% in the polls and that is your problem on. . it on 11-296 in the polls and that is your problem on. ._ on 11-296 in the polls and that is your problem on. . if you look at history tells _ your problem on. . if you look at history tells us _ your problem on. . if you look at history tells us this, _ your problem on. . if you look at history tells us this, if _ your problem on. . if you look at history tells us this, if we - your problem on. . if you look at history tells us this, if we win i history tells us this, if we win tonight— history tells us this, if we win tonight our fourth by—election victory— tonight our fourth by—election victory so _ tonight our fourth by—election victory so far, the last time that happened. _ victory so far, the last time that happened, was in the time of paddy ashdown— happened, was in the time of paddy ashdown when he was the leader between — ashdown when he was the leader between 92 and 97, that was the start— between 92 and 97, that was the start of— between 92 and 97, that was the start of a — between 92 and 97, that was the start of a very successful period for the — start of a very successful period for the liberal democrats, and what we are _ for the liberal democrats, and what we are seeing now is people all over the country— we are seeing now is people all over the country coming to us, as an alternative _ the country coming to us, as an alternative to the conservatives, now you won't see that... alternative to the conservatives, now you won't see that. . .- now you won't see that... your .a l now you won't see that... your party. forgive _ now you won't see that... your party. forgive me _

now you won't see that... your party, forgive me is _ now you won't see that... your party, forgive me is very i now you won't see that... your. party, forgive me is very cunning, they are against house building in by—election target donees and nationally you are for out. it doesn't make sense. hs2, you are the literal nimby party. irate doesn't make sense. hs2, you are the literal nimby party.— literal nimby party. we are for buildin: literal nimby party. we are for building the — literal nimby party. we are for building the right _ literal nimby party. we are for building the right houses i literal nimby party. we are for building the right houses in i literal nimby party. we are for| building the right houses in the right— building the right houses in the right places, that is down to what communities want and need and that is what _ communities want and need and that is what we _ communities want and need and that is what we are in favour of. what we are seeing _ is what we are in favour of. what we are seeing is— is what we are in favour of. what we are seeing is people recognising that. _ are seeing is people recognising that. in— are seeing is people recognising that, in different parts of the country. _ that, in different parts of the country, you are not going to see that reflected in a national poll because — that reflected in a national poll because it is not a uniform thing, but we _ because it is not a uniform thing, but we are — because it is not a uniform thing, but we are for the right policies for the — but we are for the right policies for the right people, and liberal democrats are all about decision making — democrats are all about decision making at— democrats are all about decision making at a local level and we have seen _ making at a local level and we have seen we _ making at a local level and we have seen we is — making at a local level and we have seen we is have been successful in the west— seen we is have been successful in the west country, in local elections and people — the west country, in local elections and people know that we work for the communities and that is what is important. _ communities and that is what is important, that is why we are winning — important, that is why we are winning the by—election, four in this parliament. now that hasn't happened since paddy ashdown and it was the _ happened since paddy ashdown and it was the start of a very successful period. _ was the start of a very successful eriod. . .. was the start of a very successful

eriod. ., ~' i. , period. thank you. christine sounding — period. thank you. christine sounding confident - period. thank you. christine sounding confident and i period. thank you. christine sounding confident and we | period. thank you. christine i sounding confident and we hope to catch up with david similar mondays in a moment or two, but for now, an investigation by newsnight and the bmj hasn't covered a rover over research of the impact on abortion on the melt oflet. on the mental health of women. the research is still being used in high profile us legal cases about women's access to abortion — including the supreme court's decision to overturn roe vs wade a year ago. this programme has learned that an independent panel reviewing the paper, resigned from the britishjournal of psychiatry after their recommendation to withdraw it, was not followed. here's kate. this story ripples across the atlantic. in the us it asks whether public policy is based on sound research. without that, we are adrift and rudderless and we endanger the lives and wellbeing

of the public. in the uk it questions how legal threats may influence science. slightly chilling, really, if science can be shut down that way. i think science should be adjudicated based on science. the two are connected by a scientific paper produced in 2011 by us psychologist professor priscilla coleman. it pulled together previous research to conclude women who have been through an abortion have an 81% increased risk of mental health problems. over the last year, as abortion access has been rolled back across the us, it has been regularly cited by those keen on further restrictions. in april, when a texas court decided one of the two main drugs used for medical abortion in the us, mifepristone, should have its approval suspended, this paper was cited in thejudge's decision. this meta analysis was also cited in the dobbs case in the amicus brief, and the dobbs case of course is what eliminated the constitutional right to an abortion here in the us. amicus briefs are submitted

by special interest groups. this one was part of efforts to overturn the historic rowe versus wade decision. priscilla coleman herself has been an expert witness in more than 20 court cases. thank you ma'am, you may have a seat for your comfort. but this now influential paper, linking abortion and poor mental health, has been controversial from the moment it was released in 2011. so a colleague of my brought my attention to the paper and said "what do you think of this meta analysis?" and i looked at it, and was really concerned... professorjulia littell is one of those who wrote to the britishjournal of psychiatry, which published this research, asking for it to be taken down. she points to guidelines for this kind of study, called amstar. because it does not meet those standards, we don't believe that the results are reliable or credible. in fact, julia littell says, out of 11 amstar criteria, priscilla coleman's paper doesn't meet any. i have never seen it before.

usually when we critique a meta analysis, maybe four or five of the criteria are met. for a good one, eight to ten are met. i have also never called for the retraction of a paper before, but in this — this is a very serious lapse of scientific integrity, in my view. professor littell argues that profesor coleman didn't given enough detail as to how she identified previous research to use, so her work couldn't be replicated. the scientific quality of those studies wasn't clearly assessed, and, littell says, in combining studies to produce an overall average, coleman's method counted the same women multiple times. newsnight has spoken to an independent expert, who agreed there were significant questions as to how this study was conducted. a review co—authored by the royal college of psychiatrist, the owner of the journal which published coleman's paper, also found that methodological problems brought into question coleman's results. we should say not all

the reaction was negative. the journal's 2011 editor felt, despite flaws, it was important to have the paper's viewpoint expressed. when we approached professor coleman for comment, she emphasised her long experience publishing and sharing research. she argues there are no hard and fast rules for these studies, and her work met relevant recommendations. but with the research still influencing us health care in 2022, scientists who complained 11 years earlier were concerned. having deeply flawed manuscripts in the scientific literature emperils our ability to craft sound public policy. i gathered a group of scholars, who had previously published concerns about this paper, in response to the fact that the british journal of psychiatry platformed a new research integrity group. so we saw this as an opportunity to resubmit our concerns. priscilla coleman alleges criticism of her work is driven

by the political nature of the topic, something the complainants deny. would you consider yourself pro choice? i would. do you think that has played... that is not the issue here. because priscilla coleman's lawyers would say that biased attempt to discredit her work. that is unfair, and there is no, no basis for that, because again, our critique has nothing to do with her findings. i mean, if — i would make the same criticism if she found exactly the opposite thing. the issues, the integrity, the science, full stop. newsnight and the bmj have learned that in response to the 2022 complaint, the britishjournal of psychiatry formed an independent panel to investigate. dr alex tsai was asked to join. we obtained feedback from a statistician and a news editor of b] psych to supplement our own investigation.

all in all i would say we probably spent maybe about four, four months from june through december, investigating. the panel said professor coleman was unable to provide detail on how to replicate her paper's original findings. with the investigation ongoing, the journal told professor coleman they wanted to put a notice on her article to raise awareness of a possible problem. the response via her lawyer said she would take any and all legal options available, if that happened. professor coleman did start legal action against a differentjournal when it retracted another of her papers last december. so far those actions have been rejected by a swiss court. no notice of concern was placed on her 2011 paper, the panel continued its investigation. retracking paper is not something anyone should do lightly. retracting paper is not something anyone should do lightly. but we had, we had enough concerns to suggest it should be retracted, yes. was that unanimous among the panel? yes.

at this point it would typically be left to editors at the british journal of psychiatry to decide what action to take. that is not what happened. royal royal college of psychiatrists the owner of the journal just said, that they were not prepared for that to happen, which was i think concerning because usually, you would have expected that to be an editorial decision. so at that point those of us on the panel who had been part of that investigation felt we had to resign. newsnight understands that all three panel members and two other members of the editorial board resigned, panel member expressed concern to us that coleman's legal threats may have influenced the college's action. alex tsai told newsnight there was some uncertainty about what legal support the royal college of psychiatrists would offer the journal which was considering retraction. if it truly becomes a thing where all they have to do is send a strongly worded legal letter,

i think that will undermine confidence in the journal's ability to police the content that it publishes, that thejournal does not up hold editorial independence is probably not long for this world. we asked the royal college for an interview on whether the threat of legal action influenced their decision, they didn't comment on that, but what they did tell us was this. given the distance in time since the original article was published, the widely available public debate on the paper, including the letters including the letters of complaint already available alongside the article online, and the fact the article has been subject to a full investigation it has been decided to reject the request for the article to be retracted. the original complainants say they were surprised and disappointed. the response we got from thejournal had nothing do with the science of this article. not a thing. our specific complaints remain unanswered. today, professor coleman's paper still sits prominently online,

it is still referenced in ongoing cases. what might seem academic in the uk, has real life consequences for women in the us. kate lamble there. and that investigation was produced by hannah barnes. we first broke the story this morning on the bbc news website and in the hours since we did so, three more members of the british journal of pyshciatry�*s wider editorial board have also resigned. one told us they did so as a matter of principle and in solidarity with others who have stood down. a deputy editor of the journal also resigned last week. we are still waiting to try to keep to a conservative mp david simmonds, who was due to speak to news uxbridge. that is the back of a sky tv presenter. but we don't have him yet. we are scouring high and low to find a conservative mp to answer the

important questions after the close of count in the by—elections. prices of wheat prices rising today by their highest amount since russia's invasion of ukraine. all of this occurs after the collapse of a special deal with russia that allowed safe passage for ukraine's ample supply of grain to be exported around the world. the world food programme told the bbc last year that without this deal the globe faced famines and malnutrition. in a moment we will talk to them about the consequences of an interruption of the food supply from one of the world's bread baskets. in kenya, anger has spilled over into violence over mounting cost of living pressures — and there are fears that the collapse of the grain deal could lead the country down an even darker path. here's emir�*s report. running battles through nairobi's streets, burning tyres and tear gas. kenyans back on the street today,

protesting a cost—of—living they say has become impossible. francis is one of those taking part. more of the people, because the prices of food are going up. they cannot afford food. they can only afford one meal and others can't afford at all. life is very difficult for everybody in kenya. these violent protests have brought the country to a stand—still. yesterday alone saw 300 people arrested and reports of deaths in clashes with the police. kenya's economic woes are being exacerbated by a severe drought, the worst in 40 years in east africa. it's scorched agricultural lands, livestock, and uprooted families in kenya, somalia and ethiopia searching forfood. and now, thousands of miles away, more unwelcome news. russian air strikes on odesa port's grain facilities, just after pulling out

of the black sea grain deal, tremors are being felt around the world. as global wheat prices have spiked, already rising 8% since the beginning of the week on western markets. the grain deal is not only about ukraine and russia, it is also about all the civilised world, because our grain, most modern countries in the world and more than half a billion people in the world needs our grain. so is this a story of global food security. the war�*s disruption to ukraine's grain exports helped push almost half of african countries into double digit inflation. the continent has suffered from a loss of 30 million tonnes of grain. some countries, like somalia, have been over 90% dependent on ukrainian and russian grain, where the precious imported crop is a vital substitute

for the parched local produce. explaining sharp comments from kenya's foreign ministry this week, one official calming president putin's decision a "stab in the back". then again once again ukraine cannot supply the grain, there will be a big problem indeed in sudan and i see kenya going that way. putin says his decision is final. the eu says it will spark a global hunger crisis. and so are the worrying scenes in kenya now a harbinger of unrest elsewhere to come? joining me now is the chief economist of the world food programme, arif husain. what is the impact of this rise in the wheat prices and the corn prices? the wheat prices and the corn rices? �* . .

the wheat prices and the corn rices? �* , , ., ~ ., prices? it's terrible. you know, we were dealing _ prices? it's terrible. you know, we were dealing with _ prices? it's terrible. you know, we were dealing with the _ prices? it's terrible. you know, we were dealing with the situation i prices? it's terrible. you know, we were dealing with the situation in i were dealing with the situation in poor countries and also in not so poor countries and also in not so poor countries and also in not so poor countries of high food inflation and this type of situation, if there is this type of shock within one given day wheat prices go up almost 10% and corn prices go up almost 10% and corn prices by 8%, that has consequences. those consequences are for everybody. but particularly for the pooh everybody. but particularly for the poor. and the worst part over here is this is not the first shock. if this was the first shock, it would be bad enough. but it is successive shocks. dealt with covid, dealt with climate, dealt with conflict, dealt with war in ukraine and now on top of that we have to deal with this unnecessary shock. and that is the painful part of what is going on. 345 million people in 79 countries

are in crisis or worse level of food insecurity even before this last episode. world food programme assisted 160 million people. third year of consecutive records. i can say when world food programme is setting records, that is not a good thing for the world. right now, we are looking at severe funding short falls. we need $25 billion in 2023. we have, we project we will get about 10. we have, we project we will get about10. in we have, we project we will get about 10. in this type of environment, if the prices go up more, what does that mean? that means our ability to assist more people is minimised. we are making cuts after cuts, in many country in terms of substantial food commodities they need. your boss told me that _ commodities they need. your boss told me that after _ commodities they need. your boss told me that after the _ commodities they need. your boss told me that after the russian i commodities they need. your boss| told me that after the russian deal there would be some famines and

russia maybe weaponising food, do you still think that, do you think there is a risk of famine and do you blame russia for this? for there is a risk of famine and do you blame russia for this?— there is a risk of famine and do you blame russia for this? for us as the world food — blame russia for this? for us as the world food programme _ blame russia for this? for us as the world food programme what - blame russia for this? for us as the world food programme what is i world food programme what is important is the grain basket, which is the black sea grain basket. which includes ukraine, which includes russia, that needs to work, food need to come out. fertiliser needs to come out. because they they don't come out it hurts the rest of the world as well. we don't want poor people around the world to become a collateral damage of this war. thank ou for collateral damage of this war. thank you for that- —

collateral damage of this war. thank election three years ago? obviously, you for that. now _ collateral damage of this war. thank you for that. now we _ collateral damage of this war. thank we are defer now _ you for that. now we have _ collateral damage of this war. thank you for that. now we have found i collateral damage of this war. thank you for that. now we have found a i you for that. now we have found a conservative mp in harrogate. what collateral damage of this war. thank you for that. now we have found a i you for that. now we have found a conservative mp in harrogate. is the sense from the conservative you for that. now we have found a conse sense mp in harrogate. you for that. now we have found a conse sense from n harrogate. you for that. now we have found a conse sense from the irrogate. you for that. now we have found a conse sense from the conservative is the sense from the conservative perspective of what tonight will be perspective of what like? ~ ., ~ ., . is the sense from the conservative perspective girlie hat is the sense from the conservative perspective of what tonight will be like? . ., ~ ., . ~ hersectiv. ., 4' ., is the sense from the conservative --ersectiv ., ~ ., . is the sense from the conservative like? well, who knows? we think it is aroin to like? well, who knows? we think it is going to be _ like? well, who knows? we think it is going to be very _ like? well, who knows? we think it is going to be very close. _ like? well, who knows? we think it perspectiv— is going to be very close. i - like? well, who knows? we think it is going to be very close. i have i is going to be very close. i have only been in selby b i haven't been is the sense from the conservative to the other by—elections, so i ---ersectiv ., ~ ., . been f; only been in selby b i haven't been to the other the can't give you a broader comment. but i have been on the doors 5 over the past few weeks. it has felt a only been in selby b i haven't been to the other t it has felt a the past few weeks. it has felt a very individual by—election. i have very individual by—election. i have been going to by—elections for many years, it has felt more local and the past few weeks. it has felt a very individual bj more :ion. i have the past few weeks. it has felt a very individual bj more :ion. and 'e years, it has felt more local and more personal and i think that has more personal and i been caused by the reason the by—election is taking place. i think years, it has felt more local and more personaland reason years, it has felt more local and more personal and reason the been caused by the reason the by—election is taking place. i think it will be close. it is it will be close. by-election is taking place. i think it will be close.— it will be close. it is astonishing that some _ it will be close. it is astonishing that some of — it will be close. it is astonishing that some of these _ it will be close. it is astonishing that some of these seats i by—election is taking place. i think it will be c of e. by—election is taking place. i think it will be c of these it will be close. it is astonishing that some of these seats are i it will be close. it is astonishing j that some of these seats are up it will be close. it is astonishing i that some of these seats are up for grabs, given it was a 60% vote for conservatives at the general election three years ago? obviously,

we are defending _