natural north yorkshire. it isn't natural labour territory. labour activists would be the first to admit that. people obviously may have seen it as a one—off to give the government a bit of a kicking or be part bit of a kicking or it may be part of a longer term trend. remember, though, the turnout was well down on the general lot of the general election. a lot of people did stay at home. but this was the sort of result that labour people did stay at home. but this was t probably result that labour people did stay at home. but this was t probably have t that labour people did stay at home. but this was t probably have onlyt labour people did stay at home. but this was t probably have only dreamt' people did stay at home. but this was t probably have only dreamt of could probably have only dreamt of at the start of the campaign. when the by—election was called, a lot of pundits had it's the by—election was called, a lot of pundits had its neck and neck the by—election was called, a lot of pundits had it's n( might neck the by—election was called, a lot of pundits had it's n( might be ck the by—election was called, a lot of pundits had it's n( might be in with a they thought they might be in with a shout. as the campaign went they thought they might be in with a shout. as the (this aign went they thought they might be in with a shout. as the (this area nent they thought they might be in with a shout. as the (this area with big labour flooded this area with big hitters. you can see many of them here today, �*faces from here today, many familiar faces from labour's front bench on the hallowed turf of the selby town fc this morning. at the campaign went on, they really thought they might be in they legllthbougthhey mighthe in �* the last they legllythougthhey mighthe in �* the last few days when i after the last few days when i thought it is pretty much prized in that a labour victory be that a labour victory would be forthcoming. that a labour victory would be forthcoming-—

that a labour victory would be forthcoming. that a labour victory would be forthcomina. ., ., , , ., forthcoming. tim, great to see you and net forthcoming. tim, great to see you and get your— forthcoming. tim, great to see you and get your analysis, _ forthcoming. tim, great to see you and get your analysis, we - forthcoming. tim, great to see you and get your analysis, we will - forthcoming. tim, great to see you and get your analysis, we will keepi forthcoming. tim, great to see you and get your a shot is, we will keepi forthcoming. tim, great to see you and get your a shot of we will keepi forthcoming. tim, great to see you and get your a shot of selby ill keepi forthcoming. tim, great to see you and get your a shot of selby town pi forthcoming. tim, great to see you | and get your a shot of selby town fc an eye of that shot of selby town fc where we are waiting to hear, as we heard, from the labour party leader sir keir starmer, who heard, from the labour party leader sir keir ste and ', who heard, from the labour party leader sir keir ste and congratulating, big welcoming and congratulating, big keir congratulating little keir andy �* being the new labour mp little keir being the new labour mp kier mathur, 25 years and he kier mathur, 25 years old and he secured that huge win. a historic victory and with a to the victory and with a big swing to the labour party last night, he will be victory and with a big swing to the labour party las the ht, he will be victory and with a big swing to the labour party las the house. vill be victory and with a big swing to the labour party las the house. we je victory and with a big swing to the labour party las the house. we will the new baby of the house. we will take you back there as soon as he goes to the stage. the leader of the liberal democrats, ed davey, has commented the victory in somerton and frome he's been talking to our correspondentjonathan blake. he's been talkir really ii’ he's been talkir really hard. a fantastic candidate in sarah. we the were saying that they felt the conservatives were out of touch,

we re were let down by their previous they were let down by their previous conservative mp speaking conservative garment wasn't speaking up conservative garment wasn't speaking up for them. whether conservative garment wasn't speaking up for them. \a nhs er conservative garment wasn't speaking up for them. \a nhs dentists for the conservative garment wasn't speaking up for them. \a f living, tists for the conservative garment wasn't speaking up for them. \a f living, peoplerthe kids, the cost of living, people felt it was time for a change and they like that the liberal felt it was time for a change and they like that the l democrats were —— what the liberal democrats were saying. i am gratefulfor the labour voters and green voters who got behind sarah as the person who was able to defeat the conservatives. it able to defeat the conservatives. it a very powerful message will send a very powerful message and we are back in the west country, will stop across the west country will stop you are undoubtedly very confident, you are undoubtedly very confident, you claimed victory before midnight in to be back in the say, you claim to be back in the west country. but there is a of level of support at the number of mps that you had in this part of the uk. danger that you are uk. is there a danger that you are overconfident and perhaps complacent? a but a thing, as you well know, but a general election is very different. we certainly won't

general election is very different. we certainly wo conservatives keep granted and the conservatives keep taking people in the west granted and the conservatives keep taking people in the service the record on the health service and the economy. the liberal democrats want to do that, we won't be economy. the liberal democrats want to do there �*e won't be economy. the liberal democrats want to do there are on�*t be economy. the liberal democrats want to do there are 15't be economy. the liberal democrats want to do there are 15 seats in the at all. there are 15 seats in the west country with a majority at all. there are 15 seats in the west country with a major was. we had than somerton and frome was. we had the amazing by with tiverton by—election victory with tiverton and honiton. we had great council election votes, we had and honiton. we had great council el believe >tes, we had and honiton. we had great council el believe that we had and honiton. we had great council el believe that people across the to believe that people across the west country, cornwall, devon, somerset, wiltshire and so on, they are turning to the liberal somerset, wiltshire and so on, they are turning to the liberé in this as the party best placed in this part of our country to defeat the conservatives. and as part of our country to defeat the conservatives. a— part of our country to defeat the conservatives. a speaks for them. weight ed davey, the leader— -- - speaks for them. weight ed davey, the leader_ -- ed | are celebrating this morning —— ed davey. coming in this morningour political correspondent ione wells.

corre have ient ione wells. corre have they one wells. corre have they been iells. corre have they been saying today? there is corre have they been saying today? ther about their big losses in selby mps about their big losses in selby but also in somerton as well, both south—west feeling tory mps in the south—west feeling nervous about some of those seats and the threat that but also that huge democrats oppose. but also that huge swing to labour in selby has got a mps nervous. they have lot of tory mps nervous. they have also been talking about how they feel like an already sort of bleak national picture for them in the polls wasn't helped by what some feel to be not a strong feel to be not a very strong campaign. i heard this a look through the campaign as well, for campaign. i heard this a look through the campaigi concerns for campaign. i heard this a look through the campaigi concerns that example, there were concerns that the conservative brand wasn't even being used on campaign literature. the conservative brand wasn't even being used on campaigr evenature. the conservative brand wasn't even being used on campaigr even being that rishi sunak wasn't even being talked about as part of the it was exemplary about how campaign. it was exemplary about how a lot of mps were nervous but the central party on the doorstep. wasn't helping them on the doorstep. that is the picture we were hearing from conservatives this morning. that is the picture we were hearing from conservativt labour, orning. that is the picture we were hearing from conservativt labour, sadly . that is the picture we were hearing from conservativt labour, sadly they when it comes to labour, sadly they feel there is a lot to celebrate. they are success they had

to talk about that success they had in selby. there is the recognition, though, of a in selby. there is the recognition, though, o they will be a bit of uxbridge. they will be a bit of soul—searching going on today. clearly ulez, they are both it riveting that wind to that, conservatives and labour. however, some in the party are saying why is it there was enough of an offer more generally that was to override generally that was able to override that very local factor? that is the question which now members of the shadow cabinet will be thinking about. how do they pitch shadow cabinet will be thinking abol they iw do they pitch shadow cabinet will be thinking abol they are o they pitch shadow cabinet will be thinking abol they are worth pitch shadow cabinet will be thinking abol they are worth voting for? that that they are worth voting for? that they have more options for constituents to tackle the of constituents to tackle the cost of living, for example, in the face of something like ulez, which, as living, for example, in the face of something like ulez, vspoke as living, for example, in the face of something like ulez, vspoke about it mentioned, when she spoke about it this morning, she linked back to the cost of living. she said people this morning, she linked back to the cost o to ving. she said people this morning, she linked back to the cost o to be j. she said people this morning, she linked back to the cost o to be j. she sa about ale this morning, she linked back to the cost o to be j. she sa about what needs to be thinking about what policies it can do to help people. the conservative party didn't get the rout that the rout ten, the drubbing, that many of them feared. they managed to

hold on to seat —— hold on to the uxbridge seat —— didn't get the ranting. the prime minister congratulated steve tuckwell, the new conservative mp you think they for uxbridge. what do you think they had to say that it is not a done looked so relieved? deal, he looked so relieved? last—minute dash to uxbridge, i don't think the conservatives were expecting to win it. certainly the mps felt a triple loss was baked in. this was something to be relieved about this this was something to be relieved about th rishitning 7 , ,, we. ,,, this was something to be relieved about th rishi sunak. 77 , 7 we. ,,, this was something to be relieved about th rishi sunak. it, , ,, we. ,,, this was something to be relieved about th rishi sunak. it showed , e. w this was something to be relieved about th rishi sunak. it showed the- , we minister rishi sunak. it showed the next general election was done next general election was not a done deal. a nod to the fact that their polls have not been couple conservatives over the last couple of months. the fact he has said that perhaps some felt the election was a done deal. he pointed in his interview to how the next election will be fought on issues of substance, pointing back to his five

will be fought on issues of substance, pointing backi economy pledges, particular on the economy and urging people to stick pledges, particular on the economy and l 0f1g people to stick pledges, particular on the economy and l of course, e to stick pledges, particular on the economy and l of course, he 3 stick pledges, particular on the economy and l of course, he has ck pledges, particular on the economy and l of course, he has talked plan. of course, he has talked extensively now about his five pledges, to halve inflation, grow the economy, get debt down, stop the boats, tackle nhs waiting lists. the problem he is facing, which we saw reflected in that big swing to labour in selby, is that, at the moment on the progress on these five targets isn't going particularly well. we know nhs waiting lists are up, the economy hasn't been growing, well. we know nhs waiting lists are up, the econon high, 1't been growing, well. we know nhs waiting lists are up, the econon high, debtien growing, well. we know nhs waiting lists are up, the econon high, debt is| growing, inflation is still high, debt is still very high as well. this is the of question which is concerning kind of question which is concerning the conservatives at the moment, which is that if these are the five going to the pledges we are going to the electorate with, are they going to charge us on them and are they going well? ., , charge us on them and are they going well? , , , , charge us on them and are they going well?— coming - the prime minister in the coming hours is the question of a reshuffle. lots of commentators were well be one, suggesting there may well be one, especially if there were three losses for the party. do you think thatis losses for the party. do you think that is likely to happen now? it is

taken as a _ that is likely to happen now? it is taken as a given _ that is likely to happen now? it 3 taken as a given that at that is likely to happen now? it 1 taken as a given that at some stage the prime minister is going to reshuffle his top team. essentially, gather together who he wants to be the team going into an election with. at the team going into an election with. �* .,, the team going into an election with. �* , , ., ., , with. at the most it is going to be 18 months away. _ with. at the most it is going to be 18 months away. at _ with. at the most it is going to be 18 months away. at most, - with. at the most it is going to be 18 months away. at most, 18 - with. at the most it is going to be i 18 months away. at most, 18 months awa . lots 18 months away. at most, 18 months away- lots of — 18 months away. at most, 18 months away. lots of spec _ 18 months away. at most, 18 months away. lots of spec elation _ 18 months away. at most, 18 months away. lots of spec elation about - 18 months away. at most, 18 months away. lots of spec elation about an l away. lots of spec elation about an election at some stage next year. it is never really particularly wise to put a date on when an election should be. nor is it particularly wise to confirm when a reshuffle could be. it is never confirmed unless we see ministers walking up and down downing street. lots of talk about rishi sunak wanting to reshuffle in september after mps are back from their summer break. we know the defence secretary, ben announced he would zannouncedhewouldbe " ' wallace, announced he would be departing at the next reshuffle confirming that there is going to be won. the question of what labour does and when they may decide to reshuffle their top team too. both parties are now very much thinking that they are between a year and a year—and—a—half out

that they are between a year and a year—ar election. )ut1= ~ ~ ~ ' ' ~ ~ ' '* that they are between a year and a year—ar election. pretty " ~ ~ ~ , , ~ ~ , a that they are between a year and a year—ar election. pretty much ~ , , ~ ~ , a general election. pretty much anything they do from this stage is getting them ready for that moment. we are waiting to hear from getting them ready for that moment. we are waiting to hearfrom sir keir starmer, he will take to that stage in selby, to give his congratulations to the new labour mp there. what is his top team going to be reflecting on amongst themselves today with that loss in uxbridge? and how significant that is, given, as you said, they haven't managed to come up with something that would be an issue that would eat the issue of the expansion of the ultra low emission zone, which is a hot potato —— that would eat the issue. it is -- that would eat the issue. it is not a national _ -- that would eat the issue. it is not a national issue. _ -- that would eat the issue. it is not a national issue. it _ —— that would eat the issue. it 1 not a national issue. it shows the power particularly in by—elections. they don't play more of a role in by—elections compared to general elections. on this specific issue of ulez, it has drawn a split in the labour party about this ulez, it has drawn a split in the labour sadiq about this ulez, it has drawn a split in the labour sadiq khan this ulez, it has drawn a split in the labour sadiq khan has. ulez, it has drawn a split in the labour sadiq khan has been pretty his position on it, that he firm on his position on it, that he has argued that this is a way to

save lives, tackle pollution in the city. clearly, there are some the city. clearly, there are some in the labour party who feel like perhaps he didn't sell that message in a positive enough manner, which allowed it to be very much capitalised on by the conservatives who used the cost of living as a way, i think, who used the cost of living as a way, ithink, to who used the cost of living as a way, i think, to hammer labour in that particular election. more generally, when you zoom out of uxbridge to the wider issues at play for the parties, as i mentioned, the issues people in labour will be discussing this morning is — how do we make a pitch to the electorate that can override some of those issues that will be playing local issues that will be playing out. it also shows where labour is in power, issues can be used against out. it also shows where labour is in pow for ssues can be used against out. it also shows where labour is in pow for example, be used against out. it also shows where labour is in pow for example, in used against out. it also shows where labour is in pow for example, in wales, gainst out. it also shows where labour is in pow for example, in wales, the st them. for example, in wales, the labour party is in government. will be conservatives in wales will be thinking about? how can they draw on issues which elected labour politicians are putting into policy? these are questions that labour need to think about and come up with a sort of strategy for how they show they are the party that can offer

and a fresh something different and a fresh start for people at the next general election. 7, ~ ~ election. thank you very much. we will take you _ election. thank you very much. we will take you straight _ election. thank you very much. we will take you straight to _ election. thank you very much. we will take you straight to selby - election. thank you very much. we will take you straight to selby as i will take you straight to selby as soon as we hear from the will take you straight to selby as soon as we h let's m the will take you straight to selby as soon as we h let's remind ourselves party leader. let's remind ourselves what the prime minister has been saying. rishi sunak has been visiting the constituency of uxbridge and south ruislip this morning — after the conservative victory there. but in other parts of the country where you did very well in 2019, do the results from last night not show us that the country isn't buying your message and you still have a mountain to climb? look, westminster�*s been acting like the next election�*s a done deal. the people of uxbridge have just told all of them that it's not. that when confronted with the actual reality of the labour party, people vote conservative.

joining me now is samuel kasumu, former advisor to borisjohnson and who stood to be conservative candidate samuel, good to see you, what is your result in your reaction to that result in uxbridge, first of all?- uxbridge, first of all? very interesting _ uxbridge, first of all? very interesting results. - uxbridge, first of all? very interesting results. for- uxbridge, first of all? very l interesting results. for most people, they would assume that the main or only reason for the result was the ulez expansion and the fact that many residents in outer london are upset about it. but if you look at the constituency, there is actually a much more interesting story here. it has a growing south asian population. that population over the �*so have been over the last decade or so have been slowly but surely shifting over the last decade or so have been slowly but sun hindu ting over the last decade or so have been slowly but sun hindu specifically the indian and hindu specifically part of the asian population, shifting towards considering the conservatives as an actual home. you see the same harrow and in see the same trend in harrow and in slough and also in leicester. the story is not so slough and also in leicester. the story is thinko slough and also in leicester. the story is think it is just because of

people think it is just because of ulez. people think it is 'ust because of ulez. . ., �* ., , people think it is 'ust because of ulez. . . �* ., , .,~ ulez. yeah, we haven't really talked about ou ulez. yeah, we haven't really talked l about — you say about demographics today but you say thatis about demographics today but you say that is really significant?— that is really significant? hugely significant _ that is really significant? hugely significant. as _ that is really significant? hugely significant. as i _ that is really significant? hugely significant. as i say, _ that is really significant? hugely significant. as i say, - the| significant. as i say, look at the result in harrow in recent elections and in slough i think it was this year and in leicester, we are seeing the south asian population is one of very few populations that are still shifting towards the conservatives. what about the general result overnight across the what about the general result overnight are >ss the 11:15 what about the general result overnight are they |e 11:15 what about the general result overnight are they of 1:15 what about the general result overnight are they of the 1? what about the general result overnight are they of the state of reflective are they of the state of the conservative party and the increasing support for the labour party do you think? the increasing support for the labour party do you think?— party do you think? the cost of livin: party do you think? the cost of living crisis _ party do you think? the cost of living crisis is _ party do you think? the cost of living crisis is something - party do you think? the cost of living crisis is something that, l party do you think? the cost of. living crisis is something that, you know, pretty much the living crisis is something that, you know, j is tty much the living crisis is something that, you know, j is feeling. i the living crisis is something that, you know, j is feeling. a 1e living crisis is something that, you know, j is feeling. a lot of people country is feeling. a lot of people want to send a clear message country is feeling. a lot of people want 1 minister clear message country is feeling. a lot of people want 1 minister and r message country is feeling. a lot of people want 1 minister and the essage country is feeling. a lot of people want 1 minister and the conservative prime minister and the conservative party that they are not happy with how things are going. we should take party that they are not happy with how things the going. we should take party that they are not happy with how things the going. ministerld take party that they are not happy with how things the going. minister could 5 worst thing the prime minister could do is dismiss this as a simple bye election defeat because it is more than that and we have to demonstrate there is empathy and for the prime

minister, sooner rather than later he is going to have to offer some hope and articulate a vision for the country that people can back. having said that, he has probably over a year to demonstrate he is the right person to lead the country. all isn't lost but these defeats must be taken very seriously. he isn't lost but these defeats must be taken very seriously.— taken very seriously. he said that toda , all taken very seriously. he said that today. all isn't — taken very seriously. he said that today, all isn't lost, _ taken very seriously. he said that today, all isn't lost, it _ taken very seriously. he said that today, all isn't lost, it is - taken very seriously. he said that today, all isn't lost, it is all- taken very seriously. he said that today, all isn't lost, it is all to - today, all isn't lost, it is all to play for is very much the messaging from him but when it comes to his five pledges that you referenced, he is failing on all of them. specifically and really importantly on inflation, which he promised to halve. it has on inflation, which he promised to halve. bi— as on inflation, which he promised to halve. bi— enough. my on inflation, which he promised to halve.�* bi- enough.— on inflation, which he promised to halve.�* bi- enough. nearly bi- enough. my own personal oinion is nearly bi- enough. my own personal opinion is that _ nearly bi- enough. my own personal opinion is that it _ nearly bi- enough. my own personal opinion is that it is _ nearly bi- enough. my own personal opinion is that it is not _ nearly bi- enough. my own personal opinion is that it is not the - nearly bi- enough. my own personal opinion is that it is not the prime . opinion is that it is not the prime minister, it is more the bank of england that is responsible for how we will get to a point where inflation is reduced. having said that, those five pledges are there to demonstrate the prime minister is competent. we know he is a half decent politician.— decent politician. yeah, but how competent _ decent politician. yeah, but how competent can _ decent politician. yeah, but how competent can he _ decent politician. yeah, but how competent can he show - decent politician. yeah, but how competent can he show himself| decent politician. yeah, but how l competent can he show himself as being if he hasn't achieved any of competent can he show himself as being if he hasn't a end ied any of competent can he show himself as being if he hasn't - any of. competent can he show himself as being if he hasn't - ofl competent can he show himself as being if he hasn't them? it is not the end of the year

et but them? it is not the end of the year yet but my — them? it is not the end of the year yet but my point — them? it is not the end of the year yet but my point is _ them? it is not the end of the year yet but my point is the _ them? it is not the end of the year yet but my point is the five - them? it is not the end of the year| yet but my point is the five pledges alone will not be what allows him to continue in downing street after the next general election. he will have to articulate a much broader, inspiring vision and that is what people buy into. look at what happened in uxbridge and rysel it. we had some demographic shifts which were partly responsible but also a really strong local candidate —— uxbridge and rice lake. he understood the challenges for people and had a clear set of ideas of how they would fight them. that is what they would fight them. that is what the prime minister will have to do for the whole country if he wants to be the minister.— be the minister. what should he be concentrating _ be the minister. what should he be concentrating on? _ be the minister. what should he be concentrating on? do _ be the minister. what should he be concentrating on? do you - be the minister. what should he be concentrating on? do you think- be the minister. what should he be concentrating on? do you think hel be the minister. what should he be l concentrating on? do you think he is the man to take the party forward? those five pledges made sense when he presented them at the beginning of the year. by the time we get to party conference in october, he will have to articulate a much more broad and inspirational vision about low productivity, which we had even before the pandemic, how productivity, which we had even befc ourie pandemic, how 111111111111 11 1 11 11 productivity, which we had even befc ourstandingnic, how 1 111 11 11 productivity, which we had even befc ourstanding on, how 1 111 11 11 productivity, which we had even befc our standing on thew 1111111111 111 11 11 with our standing on the international stage and so many other challenges that we don't really have an inkling about how the

prime minister will deal with these things. is he the right man for the job? i think rishi