really disappointing. whilst that row rumbles on, another seems to be resolved. captain millie bright will wear a fifa—approved unite for inclusion armband tomorrow, with the one love version effectively banned. that she's back to full fitness is a huge boost for england. when england walk out onto this pitch to face haiti, it'll be a very different—looking team to that which won the euros last summer. injuries to key players like fran kirby and leah williamson means that the spine of the team has had to change. it has dampened expectations, but still england remain one of the favourites to lift the world cup trophy. the challenge almost couldn't be greater for haiti, one of the lowest—ranked sides at the world cup. they're here for the first time in a tournament, they have done really, really well, and, yeah, we're trying to compete with every opponent who is in front of us, so we're trying to play a good game tomorrow and win it. off the pitch, england have found their voice.

now comes the time, once again, for them to make their mark on it. katie gornall, bbc news, brisbane. labour leader keir starmer tells this programme that "the tide is turning".

is there anything that the conservatives can do now to avert oblivion at the next general election? fresh on the face of it, things may seem bleak for the tories, but rishi sunak says it isn't a "done deal" for labour. horse we'll be pulling apart the results to work out the real winners and losers, and hearing from the main parties about lessons learned for the next general election campaign. what will the issues be that motivate, but also divide voters? we knew from the work we were doing in the constituency that ulez was an issue and that's why we lost in relation to uxbridge and we need to reflect on that, all of us need to reflect on that, all of us need to reflect on that, including the mayor. we'll be asking our what this means

for everything from net zero to crime to immigration, the red wall, the blue wall and to what extent these three constituency results might spell the end for the government next year — or indeed offer some hope in the shape of uxbridge and south ruislip. good evening. we now have the answer to a question people have been asking for months — would the conservatives' dire poll numbers be repeated in real voting? yes. and actually it may have been marginally worse. the tories were 18% behind labour in recent polling but, according to pollster sirjohn curtice, their vote was down 21% in yesterday's three by—elections. there were some crumbs of comfort, mainly holding on to borisjohnson�*s old seat, uxbridge and south ruislip, disappointing for labour. and the tory chairman was quick

to point out that labour had lost its deposit in somerton and frome. but does the rise of the liberal democrat vote there at the same time as the labour one in selby spell double trouble for the conservatives? let's start tonight then with nick in north yorkshire, scene of that 23% swing to labour. bells toll the tranquil rhythm of a summer's day. but in these lanes, a quiet revolution — a victory for labour in tory country. applause a celebratory walk for the leader, introducing his young name sake to the nation. it's the first time ever i have been able to say, well done keir! and the warrior against complacency unable to hide his delight. it's fair to say that when this by—election was called, most people said labour doesn't have a chance to get near a 20,000 tory majority.

and so the fact that we have i think shows the tide is turning. the tide's gone out a long way on the tory party and the predominant cry from selby and ainsty is they want change. i think that's reflected across the country. but we need to earn every vote for go for. but this is a very big step in the right direction as far as the labour party's concerned. the tide is turning, are you where your new best friend tony blair was in 96/97? look, we go into 2024 fighting the next election, not fighting the election in 1997. we have taken the labour party from a very bad result in 2019 to a position where we are credible contenders at the next general election. stepping into a new world. but cheering opponents after a no from uxbridge and south ruislip to the plan to extend an anti—pollution car charge. that is being blamed on labour's london mayor. westminster's been acting like

the next election's a done deal. the labour party's been acting like it's a done deal. the people of uxbridge just told all of them that it's not. no one expected us to win here, but steve's victory demonstrates that when confronted with the actual reality of the labour party, when there is an actual choice on a matter of substance at stake, people vote conservative. a lifeline for a prime minister who's suffered a difficult night. five, four, three, two, one! a liberal democrat caper with a confetti cannon after another liberal democrat crushing of the tories. did you like that?! celebrations for the winners, but behind the scenes for the two main parties, unease. for the conservatives, a sense of foreboding amongst many that they may well be heading towards a heavy general election defeat. but did that win in uxbridge hold out a glimmer of hope?

for keir starmer, that result in uxbridge, deep irritation with the london mayor, how can you, as one of his allies say, run a cost—of—living campaign and then expect people to pay £90 a week to drive their own car? quite a backdrop for the general election. an academic sees more of blair than kinnock in labour's performance. i think it's nearer 1997 than 1992. the results from somerset and yorkshire were very bad for the conservative party and worse than that, they see the liberal democrats eating into the conservative vote in parts of the country, labour elsewhere and tactical voting in those constituencies, where it is clear that labour voted for the liberal democrat candidate in one and the liberal democrats voted for the labour candidate in the other. that's not good for the conservatives. whether it's quite as good as 1997, uxbridge does just put that question mark there. a commentator on the tories said it could have been a lot worse for

rishi sunak. it is a mixed bag and not quite the full horror show that some tory mps were anticipating, which would have been a triple by—election defeat for rishi sunak. they managed to cling on in uxbridge. of course voters are undecided so not particularly decisive, but a win is a win in this case. that's giving i think those looking for reasons to be more optimistic something to attach themselves to. but still the picture's pretty bleak if you're a tory mp in a seat even in the region of 20,000. a brief moment on the stage. labour will be hoping selby reflects the national mood. look south to uxbridge, say the tories, and see our salvation. so does the combination of a hefty swing to labour in the north and one to the lib dems in the south catch the government in an electoral vice? i put that to senior conservative mp

and former secretary of state andrea leadsom earlier. it's always incredibly difficult midterm and obviously there's a cost of living crisis. it's not surprising that a lot of conservative voters stayed home. the circumstances of these by—elections are also not great, so we absolutely have to make sure that we spend every single day of the next year or so until the next general election getting people to come back to the conservatives. does it not show, though, that the government's economic record, or its record for competence on the economy, has been broken and it's going to be very hard to alter a 19—20% type of swing against you in the time left before the next general election. not at all, no. this is a global cost of living crisis. you know, this is not something that the government is responsible for. what we've seen is whacked up energy

prices as a result of putin's invasion of ukraine. we've seen soaring food inflation right across the world. we've seen massive problems in supply chains as a result of the covid pandemic lockdowns. so we're just coming out of that now. the fact is, people may argue as the as to the degree to which the government is or isn't responsible for these international factors. but as you tweeted today, politics is a brutal business. it is. you may welljust end up paying the price. well, i think what we saw on the other hand, in uxbridge, where steve tuckwell managed to win that seat, it shows very clearly the strength of a local candidate campaigning on a very important local issue, which is labour's labour mayor in london's determination to introduce this ultra low emission zone charge for areas that don't have the public transport, that simply don't have the connections, that enable people to be able to leave their cars at home.

well, let's talk about uxbridge then. still a 6.7% swing to labour. but as you say, the conservatives did hold onto the seat. yes, but but ijust said the conservatives won the seat. i mean, let's not take away from that. that is how politics works. and i think very clearly, steve tucker was a great candidate. most of all, he was campaigning to stop this ulez charge, which frankly just shows labour is losing on the ideas competition. i wonder, though, as as a standard bearerfor net zero and for green policies in your party reading just what you'd written yesterday about this, doesn't this cause you pause for thought that when voters are really asked to pay for those policies, it can really rebound against the party who's asking them to pay? no, no. what you have to do is to do it sensibly. and what this government has done is to decarbonise whilst growing the economy and creating jobs and growth right around the uk.

what labour are doing and let's face it, you know, they started off all in favour of ulez and when they saw how local people on the doorsteps were responding, they suddenly flip—flopped on the issue and rowed back from it. so that suddenly now keir starmer is terribly sympathetic to local people and therefore doesn't support the policy. the clear truth is that they have no ideas and what they're doing is punishing local people. that is not what the conservative government has ever done with net zero. and in terms of reflecting the needs of the community, there will be many tory members who think, well, if people with 19—20,000 majorities aren't safe, i'm certainly not safe. does that all make for a party that becomes increasingly difficult to manage, fractious and unnerved by the electoral prospects ahead of them? actually we had a 1922 committee meeting with the prime minister just before recess began, and it was incredibly motivated and positive. and i think, yes, all colleagues

will be thinking about the need to put in that extra effort, and we are working incredibly hard. andrea leadsom, thank you forjoining us. thanks very much. so what about the opposition perspective? let's speak now to labour's shadow northern ireland secretary, peter kyle, who joins us from nottingham and by liberal democrat spokesperson for levelling up helen morgan. welcome both the newsnight. if i can start with you, peter kyle. keir starmer, well, the tide is turning is his line today, certainly in selby but not so much in uxbridge. you said it yourself, mark. thank you for having me on. there was a 6.7% swing towards labour in uxbridge. that is the tide turning, and in our direction.— uxbridge. that is the tide turning, and in our direction. sorry to “ump in, it did and in our direction. sorry to “ump an, it did make i and in our direction. sorry to “ump in, it did make it i and in our direction. sorry to “ump in, it did make it the largest h and in our direction. sorry to jump in, it did make it the largest party| in, it did make it the largest party but would not give you a majority.

that is precisely my point, mark. 6.7% swing applied around the country and a general election would mean labour is the largest party in parliament. from the starting point of 2019 which is the worst showing for almost 100 years so, that is a big, big advance. what you are doing is pointing to uxbridge. why not apply the swing that came to labour from selby which was over 20%? we had an incredible, historic night last night. it is quite extraordinary that the labour party is reaching deep down into these places in parts of the country we have never been before. the mission we had, the challenge after the 2019 election was to reconnect to voters that had turned away from labour in that had turned away from labour in that election. we did that. in the last english elections we started to connect to places like medway world you only win when you are a party thatis you only win when you are a party that is now ready to govern. now we are doing something the labour party

is never done not even with tony blair. go to places like selby, and overturn a 20,000 straight tory majority. the shares we have the leadership, we have a missions driven platform for a new government, we are ready to take office and keir starmer is leading us towards it. the evidence is right there for you. us towards it. the evidence is right there for vom— us towards it. the evidence is right there for you. before we go to helen moruan, a there for you. before we go to helen morgan. a lot— there for you. before we go to helen morgan. a lot of— there for you. before we go to helen morgan, a lot of reflection _ there for you. before we go to helen morgan, a lot of reflection about - morgan, a lot of reflection about the ulez factor, the environmental zonein the ulez factor, the environmental zone in london and whether sadiq khan undermined in a sense the position of the labour candidate fighting that seat. you have talked about that dumping result in selby but isn't the likelihood, because of what has been said today about sadiq khan by leading members of your party that that will dominate the headlines tomorrow? last party that that will dominate the headlines tomorrow?— party that that will dominate the headlines tomorrow? last night was a set of three by-elections. _ headlines tomorrow? last night was a set of three by-elections. if _ headlines tomorrow? last night was a set of three by-elections. if it - headlines tomorrow? last night was a set of three by-elections. if it was - set of three by—elections. if it was a general election, were 650 seats were going at the same time, ulez

would not even be spoken about by the media afterwards. we are talking about it because it was one constituency with these legal issues. there were two local issues that labour must reflect on, the first is ulez, which is complicated, theissue first is ulez, which is complicated, the issue counts because the conservative government has insisted that ulez be extended and now they are campaigning against their own policy. that was a complicated set of politics to deal with. there was a lot of mixed opinions in that seat about borisjohnson, his legacy and so forth. those things were quite disruptive in this campaign. it was very local, this campaign. we didn't get across the line and we will reflect on it. we do not want to excuse failure because we want to make sure that we are winning and learning lessons.— learning lessons. helen morgan, a fourth by-election _ learning lessons. helen morgan, a fourth by-election victory - learning lessons. helen morgan, a fourth by-election victory in - learning lessons. helen morgan, a fourth by-election victory in this i fourth by—election victory in this parliament, including your own, it is great but, to what extent, for

the party, but to what extent is it a familiar movie to politics watchers of the lib dems doing well mid—term and unable to deliver when it comes to a general election? what we have seen with four by—election wins and two good sets of election— by—election wins and two good sets of election results in the local elections _ of election results in the local elections is that we are building momentum back up and particularly with this _ momentum back up and particularly with this by—election victory in the west— with this by—election victory in the west country where we have a historic— west country where we have a historic level of support. i think this election shows we are back in the west— this election shows we are back in the west country and people really want to _ the west country and people really want to see an active local champion fighting _ want to see an active local champion fighting for— want to see an active local champion fighting for their issues. across the wider— fighting for their issues. across the wider country, it is possible for by—election victories to be sustained _ for by—election victories to be sustained and ed davey is the first leader_ sustained and ed davey is the first leader to — sustained and ed davey is the first leader to produce four by—election victories _ leader to produce four by—election victories since paddy ashdown. i

think— victories since paddy ashdown. i think the — victories since paddy ashdown. i think the team should be congratulated for that are victory. and the _ congratulated for that are victory. and the evidence that people voted tactically, clearly labour lots its deposit in somerton and frome. does that say something about whether people are willing to enter into tactical voting arrangements. irate tactical voting arrangements. we don't enter into pacts, but voters know _ don't enter into pacts, but voters know what — don't enter into pacts, but voters know what they need to do to affect a change _ know what they need to do to affect a change and they know who can beat the incumbent, in is in case, conservative mp. we would prefer to have a _ conservative mp. we would prefer to have a sensible voting system where every _ have a sensible voting system where every vote _ have a sensible voting system where every vote counted and you could vote for— every vote counted and you could vote for the candidate you licked. but in _ vote for the candidate you licked. but in -- — vote for the candidate you licked. but in —— the candidate you liked. but in —— the candidate you liked. but with— but in —— the candidate you liked. but with first past the post that isn't possible and you have to vote for the _ isn't possible and you have to vote for the person you like the least.

it happened in all our by—election victory— it happened in all our by—election victory and — it happened in all our by—election victory and we are grateful to the people _ victory and we are grateful to the people who voted tactically. a last ruick people who voted tactically. a last . uick word people who voted tactically. a last quick word peter _ people who voted tactically. a last quick word peter kyle, _ people who voted tactically. a last quick word peter kyle, tactical- quick word peter kyle, tactical voting, yes or no? do you back them in the general election?— in the general election? well, voters are _ in the general election? well, voters are free _ in the general election? well, voters are free to _ in the general election? well, voters are free to vote - in the general election? well, voters are free to vote how i in the general election? well, l voters are free to vote how they like and tactical voting is a prominent part of our voting landscape. you don't need political partives y ies to go into a room and say if the labour party are in fourth and the liberal democrats are in second, who to vote for. similarly the same in selby where people can came to us.- similarly the same in selby where people can came to us. banking on the wisdom — people can came to us. banking on the wisdom of— people can came to us. banking on the wisdom of the _ people can came to us. banking on the wisdom of the electorate? - people can came to us. banking on the wisdom of the electorate? i - the wisdom of the electorate? i always bank on the the wisdom of the electorate. that is how we did so well in selby and will do in the next general election.- well in selby and will do in the next general election. thank you both. so, we've heard a fair amount about the ulez already,

and nick is back with more. there is great happiness in the labour party of that win in selby and ainsty. but there are worries about their failure to win uxbridge. keir starmer said there is a clear culprit, that is the ulez car charge thatis culprit, that is the ulez car charge that is due to be extended at the end of august. now, he told me that sadiq khan, the mayor of london, the labour mayor, who took that decision should reflect on that. as i understand it, there is an initiative being looked at by labour, that there are labour mps in those london seats, labour candidates in those areas and labour candidates in those areas and labour candidates outside london who have to have a relationship with london. they are planning to go and see sadiq khan and they are going to say to him, please will you pause this extension of this charge to outer london? they are going to say this

cost us this seat and could cost us dearin cost us this seat and could cost us dear in the general election. as i understand it, the mayor is not for turning, but the mayor is for listening. i understand that sadiq khan's position is this was a very difficult decision i had to take, i understand people's concerns, but i had to do this for children's health and crucially 90% of cars used in outer london would not attract this charge. he does have a scrappage scheme that he has made more generous, if you're on child benefit you can be eligible. on the tories, i would say they're still concerned, but they're seeing hope in that win in uxbridge. one former member of the cabinet said to me they were thinking about whether to stay as an mp, they said this means the next election is not decided, which is a win for rishi sunak.— inevitably after a dramatic swing there's a danger that politicians, policy types and dare i say it,

journalists, over—react. so how scaleable are by—election results? and do the issues surfaced in them get left behind in national elections? remember the next general election has to be called next year — or actually inform us about the key battlegrounds ahead? joe is at the wall. well i hate to be a cross—party party—pooper but a word of warning to this mornings winners — enjoy it while you can. yourfledgling political career may not last. remember these three? sarah olney s success at the richmond park by—election was brief. voters kicked her out after just five months, though she s now back in parliament. lisa forbes s term as peterbrough s mp lasted 153 days. and as forjane dodds — winner of the brecon and radnorshire by—election — her westminster career ended afterjust three months. she s now in the welsh senedd. the story of last night

was really about voters — not vote winners. and it is just a snapshot. we should avoid over—interpretation. but that's not stopped commentators across the board taking uxbridge — a surprise narrow tory hold — and drawing differing conclusions. both parties agree sadiq khan s expansion of the ultra low emission zone was central to the race. so what lessons can rishi sunak learn? the conservative got a boom from ulez in uxbridge and they will try to find issues like it. but there are not that many of them. as we saw in the other two seats, when it is national issues in play, the economic context, the nhs, then the conservatives are facing some really strong head winds. we know voters care about the environment, but where is the line? how far can you push it? does paying for policies from your household budget, during a cost of living crisis, change the calculation?

and if that s the case, should labour change its approach? action is important, but it shows why it _ action is important, but it shows why it is — action is important, but it shows why it is difficult, because just as poorer— why it is difficult, because just as poorer people are more affected by bad quality air, they are also the people _ bad quality air, they are also the people with the oldest cars who will be people with the oldest cars who will he hit _ people with the oldest cars who will he hit by— people with the oldest cars who will be hit by ulez if they drive. if they— be hit by ulez if they drive. if they have _ be hit by ulez if they drive. if they have older cars they will have to pay— they have older cars they will have to pay the — they have older cars they will have to pay the charge or pay to replace the can _ to pay the charge or pay to replace the can the — to pay the charge or pay to replace the car. the lesson for policy makers — the car. the lesson for policy makers is _ the car. the lesson for policy makers is we need to make progress, but we _ makers is we need to make progress, but we need _ makers is we need to make progress, but we need too protect poorer households from them. i think it s likely the impact of uxbridge will be more significant for sadiq khan in next may s mayoral election, than keir starmer in the general. now you ll have heard endless talk of swing in the past 2a hours. so lets look at labour s challenge — what numbers keir starmer will need to get into no 10. well on current constituency boundaries — at a 3.5% swing from tory to labour, rishi sunak s party would lose their majority in parliament. at 7%, labour become

the largest party. and a 12% swing would give keir starmer an overall majority. if we plot the two tory versus labour swings from last night. uxbridge and south ruislip ? 6.7%. and in selby and ainsty — 23.7%. the trends point to major problems for the conservatives. we said last night — watch out for signs of tactical voting. there s lots of evidence of that. and i also said — keep an eye on turnout. it was low in all three races. it seems some tory voters stayed at home. would that be replicated when the choice of government — notjust of local mp — is in the balance? rishi sunak has been prime ministerfor nine months. and if he delays the election as long as he can — to january 2025 — he s still only a third of the way through. so he has a maximum of 18 months before crunch time. and all the signs are that his task is not just about stopping the boats, but turning an oil

tanker of public opinion. and nowjoining us to discuss the next steps for the parties the guardian's aubrey allegretti and founder of the kraken strategy and former conservative special adviser, salma shah welcome to you both. aubrey, postmortems the starting tonight, what do you think are going to be the key policy areas that people are looking at in the wake of these results? , ., . ., looking at in the wake of these results? , . . ., ., ., results? there is a certain amount of desperation _ results? there is a certain amount of desperation setting _ results? there is a certain amount of desperation setting in _ results? there is a certain amount of desperation setting in among i results? there is a certain amount - of desperation setting in among some in the conservative party. in the same way keir starmer was criticised for trying to present himself as somebody who is notjeremy corbyn, rishi sunak has tried to present himself as not boris johnson rishi sunak has tried to present himself as not borisjohnson and found the void that's created isn't enough. he has tried fall back on his five pledges. it looks from the conversations we have had with serve mps, they're turning more to other issues that they think they can own,

the wedge issues, where they can try and show more of a divide with labour. the problem they will face of course is whether or not those are really the issues that voters think are important. that is where i think are important. that is where i think as we get closer to conservative party conference we will hear more from rishi sunak about the things he wants to push. do they cut through as were, are they important? salma, we can look at the front—pages broadly here. the times has rishi sunak aims to divide and rule after poll set back and cites migrant boats and transrights being the issues. tories to rein in green pledges after by—election carnage. we have had lord frost and jacob rees mogg on that theme. do aco ees 0 on a eme. 0 b r m gg th tth d you jacob rees mogg on that theme. do you think that will be enough? there

is a dancer you think that will be enough? there is a danger with _ you think that will be enough? there is a danger with by-elections - you think that will be enough? there is a danger with by—elections that you extrapolate the wrong answers from it _ you extrapolate the wrong answers from it a — you extrapolate the wrong answers from it. a lot of people xar about climate _ from it. a lot of people xar about climate policy issues that are there for labour — climate policy issues that are there for labour and conservative to get and polling tells us people still care about the issues. you can hang your hat _ care about the issues. you can hang your hat on — care about the issues. you can hang your hat on we were successful trying — your hat on we were successful trying to — your hat on we were successful trying to stop ulez. whether that is enough _ trying to stop ulez. whether that is enough for— trying to stop ulez. whether that is enough for rishi sunak to give himself— enough for rishi sunak to give himself a _ enough for rishi sunak to give himself a fighting chance it doesn't feel like _ himself a fighting chance it doesn't feel like it, because there is issue that can _ feel like it, because there is issue that can he, — feel like it, because there is issue that can be, specially around crime and the _ that can be, specially around crime and the boats, it is about delivery, which _ and the boats, it is about delivery, which he _ and the boats, it is about delivery, which he doesn't necessarily have control— which he doesn't necessarily have control over. if cost—of—living continues _ control over. if cost—of—living continues to be the big central issue — continues to be the big central issue going into the next election he has _ issue going into the next election he has few— issue going into the next election he has few levers to pull on that. i can understand the strategy and why they want _ can understand the strategy and why they want to go on the wedge issues, but it— they want to go on the wedge issues, but it might _ they want to go on the wedge issues, but it might not give them enough. the danger— but it might not give them enough. the danger of a falling into salma's

bear the danger of a falling into salma's hear trap— the danger of a falling into salma's bear trap and extrapolating too much, — bear trap and extrapolating too much, the ulez thing, is there a sort _ much, the ulez thing, is there a sort of— much, the ulez thing, is there a sort of political risk area for parties _ sort of political risk area for parties here in the sense that people — parties here in the sense that people like talking about green issue. — people like talking about green issue, they like the idea of tackling _ issue, they like the idea of tackling them, but when it comes to paying _ tackling them, but when it comes to paying for— tackling them, but when it comes to paying for them, it could be a trickier— paying for them, it could be a trickier issue. does that cut through— trickier issue. does that cut through at all or do you think still it is very— through at all or do you think still it is very localised greater london type thing? i it is very localised greater london type thing?— type thing? i think political arties type thing? i think political parties have _ type thing? i think political parties have realised - type thing? i think political parties have realised theyl type thing? i think political - parties have realised they need to do as much as they can to bring people with them and there are a number of people in labour who think there should have been a compromise between the london mayor sadiq khan, keir starmer and the candidate in between the london mayor sadiq khan, keir starmer and the candidate in uxbridge. but this doesn't appear to uxbridge. but this doesn't appear to be a sort of single issue that rishi be a sort of single issue that rishi sunak wants to focus on. he is sunak wants to focus on. he is trying to broaden it out. trying to broaden it out. conservative mps have realised their conservative mps have realised their best bet is to avoid conservative best bet is to avoid conservative apathy and the 97 scenario where not apathy and the 97 who

just people sadiq khan, for rishi sunak is to work out who is the _ for rishi sunak is to work out who is the conservative voter, because you have _ is the conservative voter, because you have people in what is now called — you have people in what is now called the _ you have people in what is now called the red wall that are still conservative voters,