hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. translation: right now, trent changes in the world, and are times in history, are unfolding in ways like never before. we require a fundamental reform of the global financial institutions, so that they can be more agile and responsive to the challenges facing developing economies. the leader of one of the member countries is not here in johannesburg for the summit. because of international sanctions limiting his ability to travel, russia's vladimir putin addressed the meeting via video—link, telling his audience that one of the main purposes was to reduce the use of the us dollar among the brics partners.

is it the alternative to the g7? could the brics nations be leading a breakaway? that is the discussion injohannsberg. president putin, under an arrest warrant, appearing by videolink, says the move to de—dollarization has already begun. south africa says there a0 other countries ready to join them. so what does that mean for the international order. and what style of governance would they lead. the ukraine spending bill is before congress. vital to president zelensky�*s counteroffensive. but are there problems with weapons supplies? we will discuss tonight with rose gottemoeller, who served as deputy secretary general of nato and was the under secretary of state for arms control. also with us the former education secretary here in the uk justine greening. and we will look ahead to tomorrow nights big debate in milwaukee. eight republican challengers minus the frontrunner. can anyone upstage donald trump?

welcome back. the coup in niger, and the response of neighbouring countries to it, is in many ways a microcosm of a wider strategic struggle. on the sidelines of the coup, somewhere in africa is ngeniy prigozhin whose wagner group, is ready to support and spread the chaos, as they have already done in mali and the central african republic. the kremlin would seek to present itself as a credible alternative to western influence. and in former colonial countries still wrestling with poverty, the impact of climate change, and the resulting unemployment, that new alternative is finding a receptive audience. and not just among african nations. injohannesberg today the leaders of the bric countries — that is brazil, china, india, russia, south africa, are courting nearly a0 countries who want this alternative to perceived western control. in the first hour of the programme we spoke to graham allison,

professor of government at the harvard kennedy school about what this expanding grouping might look like. i would say that obviously they have differences among themselves. but so to the g—7, the sort of counterpart, i think the main takeaway from the meeting there and especially the enthusiasm of 23 other countries that are in line training tojoin up to the brics is welcome to the multilateral world. the idea that the us itself or the us and its european allies, plus japan, should be able to dictate what we think to be the appropriate rules and behaviour in the international order is contested by all of these parties and we'll see it across the whole agenda.

so i would say it's just welcome to the more complex, multilateral world. is it the inevitable result of "america first"? i think it's a little bit of that, but it's fundamentally a result of the fact that the seesaw of power in the world has shifted steadily from a period in which, for the us, which is what i study most, the us had about half the world's gdp at the end of world war two as everybody else had been destroyed. we had about a quarter at the end of the cold war and we have about a less than 20% today in that same period. other countries have grown and power has been dispersed. so the fundamental fact is that structurally saudi arabia or south africa or brazil or china or india or many other countries no longer feel obliged to ask

permission from the us or to listen particularly to what we say. and the seven, which was a way of kind of shoring up the western and the g7, which was a way of kind of shoring up the western form of leadership ever since it was founded and it's now almost a0 years old, its share of gdp has been shrinking. so that when you compare it with, for example, even the brics, by purchasing power parity, it's now approximately equal. ram allison speaking to me a little earlier. what style of government would these countries want? maybe not the style of democracy the west has been exporting. in dar es salaam, tanzania, reports this week that the chinese communist party is teaching african leaders an authoritarian alternative to democracy at its first overseas training school. perhaps the strongest evidence yet that beijing is exporting its model of governing in its push to challenge the western—led order. the chinese teachers sent from beijing are training african

leaders that the ruling party should sit above government and the courts, and that fierce discipline can ensure an adherence to party ideology. it has been tried before in africa. and often with disastrous results. the broader question is what does the west do to counter that threat? professor david shinnjoins me from washington dc now. he's an academic at george washington university and a former ambassadorfor the us to ethiopia and burkina faso, also serving as a diplomat in tanzania, as well as several other african countries. welcome to the programme. why would tanzania be interested in the style of government?— tanzania be interested in the style of government? while you actually have six countries _ of government? while you actually have six countries primarily - of government? while you actually have six countries primarily in - have six countries primarily in southern africa that are interested in this, it's notjust tanzania. but it's south africa, mozambique, angola, and zimbabwe. these are all effectively countries that have a party that has won every election

since independence. so they have maintained themselves in power throughout. they are interested in staying in power, obviously. and one model would be the chinese model of governance where the communist party of china has also stayed in power. the fact that this is located in tanzania rather than one of the other six countries is i think immaterial. it could very well have been established in one of the other countries. ~ , ., , been established in one of the other countries. ~ , . , . , , countries. why has the west been so oor at countries. why has the west been so poor at exploring. — countries. why has the west been so poor at exploring, exporting - poor at exploring, exporting democracy to some of these countries?— democracy to some of these countries? ~ ~ , ., countries? while the west and particularly — countries? while the west and particularly the _ countries? while the west and particularly the united - countries? while the west and particularly the united states, | countries? while the west and - particularly the united states, has been trying to encourage democratic processes and systems in africa for many years, particularly in the last couple of decades. there is very much a difference of opinion between

the chinese approach and the western approach to governance. that's very obvious. and the west i think has been quite active in trying to, in effect, countered the chinese approach or the approach of several other countries. so the west has its own way of doing this, but not by establishing political training schools or political leadership schools or political leadership schools in africa. there is no history of that. so this is a unique approach by china.— history of that. so this is a unique approach by china. professor, we've 'ust lost approach by china. professor, we've just lost your _ approach by china. professor, we've just lost your picture, _ approach by china. professor, we've just lost your picture, so _ approach by china. professor, we've just lost your picture, so we'll- approach by china. professor, we've just lost your picture, so we'll see i just lost your picture, so we'll see if you can bring that back to us, but i'll bring in rose who is listening to this. there is politics but there's also security, and the united states has a big stake in many of these countries. how concerned are you of what you've heard today injohannesburg? i concerned are you of what you've heard today in johannesburg? i think that united states _ heard today in johannesburg? i think that united states has _ heard today in johannesburg? i think that united states has to _ heard today in johannesburg? i think that united states has to be - heard today in johannesburg? i think that united states has to be much i that united states has to be much more _ that united states has to be much more alert— that united states has to be much more alert to what's going on in

africa _ more alert to what's going on in africa and — more alert to what's going on in africa and indeed in latin america as welt _ africa and indeed in latin america as welt i— africa and indeed in latin america as walk i do — africa and indeed in latin america as well. i do see that senior politicians, the secretary of state, senior diplomats are getting out now and beginning to travel around more to these _ and beginning to travel around more to these places, recent trip to africa — to these places, recent trip to africa by— to these places, recent trip to africa by the secretary of state was very very _ africa by the secretary of state was very very important. but when you see this _ very very important. but when you see this kind of effort that countries like china is putting in and not — countries like china is putting in and not only as the school that you talked _ and not only as the school that you talked about but also the investments, the huge investments in infrastructure. these are of course added _ infrastructure. these are of course added attractions to the local leaders — added attractions to the local leaders and the local leading parties _ leaders and the local leading parties. the local governing parties _ parties. the local governing parties i_ parties. the local governing parties. i think we need to remember, here i want to bring in the wagner— remember, here i want to bring in the wagnergroup remember, here i want to bring in the wagner group which was also at the wagner group which was also at the start— the wagner group which was also at the start of— the wagner group which was also at the start of the programme highlighted. these are basically entities — highlighted. these are basically entities that are very much based on also raping _ entities that are very much based on also raping and pillaging, going after— also raping and pillaging, going after mining interests and taking control— after mining interests and taking control over economic assets, and i

will say, _ control over economic assets, and i will say, you — control over economic assets, and i will say, you know, the chinese all their— will say, you know, the chinese all their infrastructure projects could be a disadvantage of local governments and local countries, but in any— governments and local countries, but in any -- _ governments and local countries, but in any -- ih _ governments and local countries, but in any —— in many cases they are disadvantageous to those countries and don't _ disadvantageous to those countries and don't give the workforce opportunities to work and earn money — opportunities to work and earn money. it's like one of those old cliches _ money. it's like one of those old cliches about looking a gift horse in the _ cliches about looking a gift horse in the mouth. that horse could be dangerous— in the mouth. that horse could be dangerous as in the case of wagner grouu _ dangerous as in the case of wagner urou -. ~ �* dangerous as in the case of wagner u-rou.~ �* w dangerous as in the case of wagner ”rou,. �* ., dangerous as in the case of wagner irou,. �* ., , dangerous as in the case of wagner irou.,. �* ., , dangerous as in the case of wagner i.rou,. �* ., , group. we've taken our eye off the ball in the foreign _ group. we've taken our eye off the ball in the foreign affairs - ball in the foreign affairs committee here. underestimated the wagner networks applications, security issues in africa. $5 wagner networks applications, security issues in africa. as you sa it's security issues in africa. as you say it's not _ security issues in africa. as you say it's notjust _ security issues in africa. as you say it's notjust the _ security issues in africa. as you say it's notjust the chinese, i security issues in africa. as you | say it's notjust the chinese, it's the russiahs_ say it's notjust the chinese, it's the russians who _ say it's notjust the chinese, it's the russians who have - say it's notjust the chinese, it's. the russians who have developed their diplomatic— the russians who have developed their diplomatic and _ the russians who have developed their diplomatic and economic- their diplomatic and economic security— their diplomatic and economic security relationships - their diplomatic and economic security relationships across l security relationships across africa, — security relationships across africa, and _ security relationships across africa, and we _ security relationships across

africa, and we know - security relationships across africa, and we know that's l security relationships across - africa, and we know that's been happening — africa, and we know that's been happening of— africa, and we know that's been happening of course _ africa, and we know that's been happening of course the - africa, and we know that's been. happening of course the backdrop africa, and we know that's been- happening of course the backdrop in the uk _ happening of course the backdrop in the uk is _ happening of course the backdrop in the uk is weve— happening of course the backdrop in the uk is we've entrenched - the uk is we've entrenched investment— the uk is we've entrenched investment over— the uk is we've entrenched investment over recent - the uk is we've entrenched l investment over recent years the uk is we've entrenched - investment over recent years and seen _ investment over recent years and seen quite — investment over recent years and seen quite dramatic— investment over recent years and seen quite dramatic cutbacks, - investment over recent years and seen quite dramatic cutbacks, a i investment over recent years and i seen quite dramatic cutbacks, a lot of that— seen quite dramatic cutbacks, a lot of that was— seen quite dramatic cutbacks, a lot of that was around _ seen quite dramatic cutbacks, a lot of that was around strengthening . of that was around strengthening democraciesm _ of that was around strengthening democracies. . ._ of that was around strengthening democracies... you're talking about the foreign — democracies... you're talking about the foreign budget _ democracies... you're talking about the foreign budget which _ democracies... you're talking about the foreign budget which is - democracies... you're talking about the foreign budget which is an - democracies... you're talking about the foreign budget which is an issue in the uk. �* , the foreign budget which is an issue intheuk.�* , , ,, in the uk. because countries like china have _ in the uk. because countries like china have really _ in the uk. because countries like china have really buffed - in the uk. because countries like china have really buffed up - in the uk. because countries like i china have really buffed up against the un _ china have really buffed up against the un because _ china have really buffed up against the un because they— china have really buffed up against the un because they believe - china have really buffed up against the un because they believe so. the un because they believe so strongly— the un because they believe so strongly in— the un because they believe so strongly in sovereignty. - the un because they believe so strongly in sovereignty. in - the un because they believe sol strongly in sovereignty. in other words. — strongly in sovereignty. in other words. they— strongly in sovereignty. in other words, they decide _ strongly in sovereignty. in other words, they decide what - strongly in sovereignty. in other. words, they decide what happens in china, _ words, they decide what happens in china, they— words, they decide what happens in china, they fundamentally- words, they decide what happens in china, they fundamentally disagree | china, they fundamentally disagree with a _ china, they fundamentally disagree with a rule—based _ china, they fundamentally disagree with a rule—based world _ china, they fundamentally disagree with a rule—based world order- china, they fundamentally disagree with a rule—based world order thatl with a rule—based world order that the un _ with a rule—based world order that the un presents. _ with a rule—based world order that the un presents. but _ with a rule—based world order that the un presents. but it— with a rule—based world order that the un presents. but it is- with a rule—based world order that the un presents. but it is going i with a rule—based world order that the un presents. but it is going to be hard _ the un presents. but it is going to be hard to— the un presents. but it is going to be hard to develop _ the un presents. but it is going to be hard to develop the _ the un presents. but it is going to be hard to develop the brics i be hard to develop the brics solitary— be hard to develop the brics solitary if— be hard to develop the brics solitary if there _ be hard to develop the brics solitary if there aren't - be hard to develop the brics i solitary if there aren't common rules — solitary if there aren't common rules what _ solitary if there aren't common rules. what should _ solitary if there aren't common rules. what should be - solitary if there aren't common rules. what should be the i solitary if there aren't commonl rules. what should be the rules solitary if there aren't common i rules. what should be the rules for any countries — rules. what should be the rules for any countries coming _ rules. what should be the rules for any countries coming in? _ rules. what should be the rules for any countries coming in? i- rules. what should be the rules for any countries coming in? i think. any countries coming in? i think there's— any countries coming in? i think there's a — any countries coming in? i think there's a big? _ any countries coming in? i think there's a big? for— any countries coming in? i think there's a big? for the _ any countries coming in? i think there's a big? for the brics i there's a big? forthe brics countries _ there's a big? forthe brics countries tonight. _ there's a big? forthe brics countries tonight. do - there's a big? forthe brics countries tonight. do they. there's a big? for the brics i countries tonight. do they want to -et countries tonight. do they want to get bigger— countries tonight. do they want to get bigger and _ countries tonight. do they want to get bigger and have _ countries tonight. do they want to get bigger and have more - countries tonight. do they want to get bigger and have more power, i

countries tonight. do they want to i get bigger and have more power, but doing so— get bigger and have more power, but doing so they — get bigger and have more power, but doing so they would _ get bigger and have more power, but doing so they would face _ get bigger and have more power, but doing so they would face the - get bigger and have more power, but doing so they would face the same i doing so they would face the same dilution _ doing so they would face the same dilution of— doing so they would face the same dilution of individual— doing so they would face the same dilution of individual sovereignty. dilution of individual sovereignty that comes _ dilution of individual sovereignty that comes with _ dilution of individual sovereignty that comes with that. _ dilution of individual sovereignty that comes with that. for - dilution of individual sovereignty that comes with that. for the i that comes with that. for the western— that comes with that. for the western world _ that comes with that. for the western world we _ that comes with that. for the western world we should i that comes with that. for the western world we should bel that comes with that. for the i western world we should be very wide-eyed — western world we should be very wide—eyed about _ western world we should be very wide—eyed about the _ western world we should be very wide—eyed about the fact - western world we should be very wide—eyed about the fact that i western world we should be very i wide—eyed about the fact that these are our— wide—eyed about the fact that these are our alternate _ wide—eyed about the fact that these are our alternate systems— wide—eyed about the fact that these are our alternate systems of- are our alternate systems of government _ are our alternate systems of government being _ are our alternate systems of government being pursued i are our alternate systems of- government being pursued here, authoritarian _ government being pursued here, authoritarian and _ government being pursued here, authoritarian and not _ government being pursued here, authoritarian and not based i government being pursued here, authoritarian and not based on i authoritarian and not based on democratic— authoritarian and not based on democratic means. _ authoritarian and not based on democratic means. and - authoritarian and not based on democratic means. and that i democratic means. and that potentially _ democratic means. and that potentially is _ democratic means. and that potentially is a _ democratic means. and that potentially is a direct - democratic means. and that i potentially is a direct challenge i think— potentially is a direct challenge i think to — potentially is a direct challenge i think to us _ potentially is a direct challenge i think to us l— potentially is a direct challenge i think to us— potentially is a direct challenge i think to us. ., think to us. i wonder david if there is some arrogance _ think to us. i wonder david if there is some arrogance on _ think to us. i wonder david if there is some arrogance on our- think to us. i wonder david if there i is some arrogance on our part, when we talk about a rules —based order. you look back at the way the west dealt with the co—vivid pandemic and how it hoarded vaccines. what it says on the global south on how it should behave around ukraine. establishing african countries, brics countries away? david, can you hear me? , ., ., i. ,, hear me? yes i do hear you. i think to some extent _ hear me? yes i do hear you. i think to some extent there _ hear me? yes i do hear you. i think to some extent there is _ hear me? yes i do hear you. i think to some extent there is a _ hear me? yes i do hear you. i think to some extent there is a certain i to some extent there is a certain arrogance involved here, but a lot of that is based more in the

perception of the africans themselves. they perceive they are against, i'm not sure that the west seesit against, i'm not sure that the west sees it quite the same way. but you have to sick account of the perception of others when you run into this kind of situation. and i think we do have to be a little more careful in the west about not engaging in arrogant processes and i think we have been guilty of that in the past. think we have been guilty of that in the ast. ., ~ think we have been guilty of that in the ast. . ~ ., ., the past. talk to me about the dollar, david, _ the past. talk to me about the dollar, david, if— the past. talk to me about the dollar, david, if you _ the past. talk to me about the dollar, david, if you would. i the past. talk to me about the l dollar, david, if you would. one the past. talk to me about the i dollar, david, if you would. one of the lines we had from president putin tonight is that the d dollarisation of these brics countries is under way, is beginning. clearly that is... some of these brics nations. do you think it's as pronounced as president putin would have us believe? i think there are a — putin would have us believe? i think there are a lot _ putin would have us believe? i think there are a lot of— putin would have us believe? i think there are a lot of dilemmas - putin would have us believe? i think there are a lot of dilemmas in i putin would have us believe? i thinkj there are a lot of dilemmas in terms of moving away from the dollar. eventually it probably will happen,

the effort to make that happen is going to be very drawn out and not an easy one. i'm not in economists so i can't tell you the details of it but i've read enough about this to understand it's just not that easy to break away from the dollar. it's not like the united states is trying to impose the dollar, it's that the international community has basically decided it's easier to use the dollar. , ., , ,., the dollar. refresher -- professor chin thank — the dollar. refresher -- professor chin thank you _ the dollar. refresher -- professor chin thank you for _ the dollar. refresher -- professor chin thank you forjoining - the dollar. refresher -- professor chin thank you forjoining us i chin thank you forjoining us tonight. for now we'll take a short break. let's look at some other stories making news. former metropolitan police officer adam provan, who abused his position to prey on women and girls,has been jailed for 16 years for a series of rapes spanning eight years. a court heard the 44—year—old's predatory behaviour dated back to the 1990s and went unchecked until one of his victims came forward.

network rail is to face prosecution over an aberdeenshire train crash claimed three lives. train driver brett mccullough, conductor donald dinnie, and passenger christopher stuchbury died when the train derailed at carmon in august 2020. the train hit a landslide after heavy rain. the case will call at the high court in aberdeeen next month. a children's charity in england says the cuts to the number of hours young people spend doing sport should be a national concern. new data shows a further 4,000 hours of physical education have been lost from the curriculum in state—funded secondary schools last year. the youth sport trust says it's a further threat to pupils�* wellbeing. you're live with bbc news. since we are discussing the white house struggles to defend democracies around the globe we should talk about the giant spending plan that sits before the us congress. within the $40 billion

the administration has earmarked for disaster relief, border security, spending on drug policy, all of that popular with republicans — there is $24 billion of further aid for ukraine. and there are plenty within the freedom caucus who oppose that. spurred on by donald trump who argues that america should not be "sending very much" to ukraine and that kyiv should sue for peace. the ukrainians are awake to the threat. as are the europeans. but yesterday our regular panelist christopher steele tweeted this. with more, i am joined by former british intelligence officer and director of orbis business intelligence,

christopher steele. put this, christopher, in the context of the counteroffensive. how acute is the ukrainian requirements, and what is your concern?— and what is your concern? thanks christian, i _ and what is your concern? thanks christian, i think _ and what is your concern? thanks christian, i think essentially i and what is your concern? thanks christian, i think essentially what| christian, i think essentially what you've heard in recent times is a miscalculation in a sense by western governments who have been supplying ukraine with a lot of weaponry as the war has gone on. in fact as the war has developed, ukraine has become more and more dependent on western arms supplies and in particular western platforms. the governments have not correctly forcing some of the trends in the war, one of those is the trend to artillery exchanges being absolutely critical certainly in the moment, with the counteroffensive under the way. if ukraine is going to break through they need to do so with their artillery superiority.

ukrainians are firing more than 8000 millimetres shells the day, that's what the us can produce in about a month. even the tanks of the us are not an industry to increase its production of the 155 mm to 25,000 a month, it's only going to be three days worth. you can see where this is moving it it's really quite concerning. 50 is moving it it's really quite concerning.— is moving it it's really quite concernin. , , ., ., is moving it it's really quite concernini. , , ., ., ., concerning. so this is not a case of western fatigue or— concerning. so this is not a case of western fatigue or lack— concerning. so this is not a case of western fatigue or lack of - concerning. so this is not a case of western fatigue or lack of resolve | western fatigue or lack of resolve for the fight, what you are saying is it's quite simply a lack of defence capacity.— is it's quite simply a lack of defence capacity. is it's quite simply a lack of defence caaci . ., . ., ., defence capacity. correct, and going back to those _ defence capacity. correct, and going back to those 155 _ defence capacity. correct, and going back to those 155 mm _ defence capacity. correct, and going back to those 155 mm shells, i i back to those 155 mm shells, i understand there are only two production facilities for those in the united states for the casings on those shells, so therefore its very difficult to ramp up production in the way that's going to be necessary. i think particularly in the moment, as you say the counteroffensive is on critical

juncture. although the russian defence industries have had a lot of problems substituting for western high—technology components and their weapons systems, they've been pretty successful at producing the basic stuff, in other words the artillery shells and munitions.— stuff, in other words the artillery shells and munitions. rose, let me brini ou shells and munitions. rose, let me bring you in — shells and munitions. rose, let me bring you in on _ shells and munitions. rose, let me bring you in on this _ shells and munitions. rose, let me bring you in on this as _ shells and munitions. rose, let me bring you in on this as a _ bring you in on this as a former deputy secretary general. when he says he's concerned about an acute weapon shortage, are you picking up similar murmurings and are you as concerned? the similar murmurings and are you as concerned?— similar murmurings and are you as concerned? , ., . ., , concerned? the production capacity ofthe concerned? the production capacity of the united _ concerned? the production capacity of the united states _ concerned? the production capacity of the united states and _ concerned? the production capacity of the united states and especiallyl of the united states and especially in europe, — of the united states and especially in europe, part of it is the fact they— in europe, part of it is the fact they have _ in europe, part of it is the fact they have not had to do such huge production— they have not had to do such huge production runs for such a long period — production runs for such a long period of— production runs for such a long period of time at the big industries complained as of yet no real demand signal— complained as of yet no real demand signal for— complained as of yet no real demand signal for them to truly upgrade and modernise _ signal for them to truly upgrade and modernise their production line so they can _ modernise their production line so they can really put out large runs

of ammunition and other military material— of ammunition and other military material and weapon systems. i think that is— material and weapon systems. i think that is partially part of the reform process _ that is partially part of the reform process that is now going on, where there _ process that is now going on, where there is— process that is now going on, where there is an _ process that is now going on, where there is an effort under way to ensure — there is an effort under way to ensure that acquisitions are put forward — ensure that acquisitions are put forward in — ensure that acquisitions are put forward in a way that it does spur modernisation and re—industrialization in defence industries. that's part of the work that's— industries. that's part of the work that's under way, whether it's enough — that's under way, whether it's enough at _ that's under way, whether it's enough at this moment of real crisis in the _ enough at this moment of real crisis in the counteroffensive, i don't know — in the counteroffensive, i don't know but _ in the counteroffensive, i don't know. but another factor i'd like to point _ know. but another factor i'd like to point to— know. but another factor i'd like to point to which i think is quite impressive is the indigenous capability that the ukrainians have begun— capability that the ukrainians have begun to _ capability that the ukrainians have begun to come up with. they are taking _ begun to come up with. they are taking small drones off the shelf, for example, and arming them. they are also— for example, and arming them. they are also equipping them for intelligent and reconnaissance, they are excellent... they have done a lot already — are excellent... they have done a lot already on capacity and capability, we need to point to what the ukrainians have done themselves as well~ _

the ukrainians have done themselves as well~ |n— the ukrainians have done themselves as well. , ., the ukrainians have done themselves as well. ,., .,, ., as well. in indeed so rose, we have this bill that is — as well. in indeed so rose, we have this bill that is on _ as well. in indeed so rose, we have this bill that is on the _ as well. in indeed so rose, we have this bill that is on the desk- as well. in indeed so rose, we have this bill that is on the desk of- as well. in indeed so rose, we have this bill that is on the desk of the i this bill that is on the desk of the republican speaker at the moment, and he has to get his party around it. but the key figures in the party, donald trump for instance, is saying we don't need that. i mean, if we've got a weapons crisis in, suddenly we have a spending bill crisis, what then, where is the counteroffensive? in the next few weeks? ~ ., , , ., weeks? while donald trump is of course a very _ weeks? while donald trump is of course a very significant - weeks? while donald trump is of course a very significant figure i weeks? while donald trump is of. course a very significant figure and extraordinarily influential among republicans but a lot of republicans are also _ republicans but a lot of republicans are also very much in support of continuing — are also very much in support of continuing to defend, to defend not only the _ continuing to defend, to defend not only the ukraine —— ukraine, there isa only the ukraine —— ukraine, there is a huge _ only the ukraine —— ukraine, there is a huge amount of support for the nato alliance, i've seen it in action— nato alliance, i've seen it in action myself, despite the fact when i was action myself, despite the fact when i was nato _ action myself, despite the fact when i was nato deputy secretary general, trump _ i was nato deputy secretary general, trump was _ i was nato deputy secretary general, trump was very tough on nato, and at times was— trump was very tough on nato, and at

times was threatening to withdraw from the _ times was threatening to withdraw from the party. there was a great deal of— from the party. there was a great deal of bipartisan support on capitol— deal of bipartisan support on capitol hill. i expect that to continue _ capitol hill. i expect that to continue no matter who comes into the white _ continue no matter who comes into the white house in 2024. trump is influential— the white house in 2024. trump is influential but he's not the only influencer here. we influential but he's not the only influencer here.— influential but he's not the only influencer here. we don't want to over exist — influencer here. we don't want to over exist but _ influencer here. we don't want to over exist but it _ influencer here. we don't want to over exist but it seems _ influencer here. we don't want to over exist but it seems to i influencer here. we don't want to over exist but it seems to me i influencer here. we don't want to i over exist but it seems to me alarm bells are starting to ring in chancellery �*s around europe. we have to wake up to it that would mean. if there is renewed russian aggression, we are hearing whispers of that in russian security councils, if they start to take out what is left of ukrainian civil infrastructure and we are into the winter and there is a refugee crisis on europe's borders, this become serious very very quickly. it on europe's borders, this become serious very very quickly.- serious very very quickly. it can, and this is _ serious very very quickly. it can, and this is the _ serious very very quickly. it can, and this is the challenges i serious very very quickly. it can, and this is the challenges we i serious very very quickly. it can, l and this is the challenges we look ahead _ and this is the challenges we look ahead when _ and this is the challenges we look ahead. when we _ and this is the challenges we look ahead. when we look at - and this is the challenges we look ahead. when we look at russia i and this is the challenges we look- ahead. when we look at russia worked with the _ ahead. when we look at russia worked with the president _ ahead. when we look at russia worked with the president in _ ahead. when we look at russia worked with the president in syria, _ ahead. when we look at russia worked with the president in syria, it - ahead. when we look at russia worked with the president in syria, itjust- with the president in syria, itjust stuck— with the president in syria, itjust stuck in _ with the president in syria, itjust stuck in there _ with the president in syria, itjust stuck in there and _ with the president in syria, itjust

stuck in there and never- with the president in syria, itjust stuck in there and never gave i with the president in syria, itjustj stuck in there and never gave up, even _ stuck in there and never gave up, even when — stuck in there and never gave up, even when it— stuck in there and never gave up, even when it looked _ stuck in there and never gave up, even when it looked like he i stuck in there and never gave up, | even when it looked like he would no, even when it looked like he would go. russia — even when it looked like he would go, russia tucked _ even when it looked like he would go, russia tucked in _ even when it looked like he would go, russia tucked in and... - even when it looked like he would i go, russia tucked in and... support. there _ go, russia tucked in and... support. there isn't— go, russia tucked in and... support. there isn't going _ go, russia tucked in and... support. there isn't going to— go, russia tucked in and... support. there isn't going to be _ go, russia tucked in and... support. there isn't going to be this - go, russia tucked in and... support. there isn't going to be this momentl there isn't going to be this moment that putin _ there isn't going to be this moment that putin says _ there isn't going to be this moment that putin says 0k _ there isn't going to be this moment that putin says 0k i've _ there isn't going to be this moment that putin says 0k i've had - there isn't going to be this moment that putin says 0k i've had enoughl that putin says 0k i've had enough on this _ that putin says 0k i've had enough on this so — that putin says ok i've had enough on this so it— that putin says ok i've had enough on this so it is— that putin says ok i've had enough on this. so it is up— that putin says 0k i've had enough on this. so it is up to _ that putin says 0k i've had enough on this. so it is up to the - on this. so it is up to the west working — on this. so it is up to the west working collaboratively - on this. so it is up to the westl working collaboratively through on this. so it is up to the west- working collaboratively through may 80 to make — working collaboratively through may 80 to make sure _ working collaboratively through may 80 to make sure the _ working collaboratively through may 80 to make sure the ukrainians i working collaboratively through mayj 80 to make sure the ukrainians who are a _ 80 to make sure the ukrainians who are a little _ 80 to make sure the ukrainians who are a little early— 80 to make sure the ukrainians who are a little early in _ 80 to make sure the ukrainians who are a little early in the fright - 80 to make sure the ukrainians who are a little early in the fright of- are a little early in the fright of their— are a little early in the fright of their lives— are a little early in the fright of their lives get— are a little early in the fright of their lives get the _ are a little early in the fright of their lives get the military i are a little early in the fright of. their lives get the military support that they— their lives get the military support that they need _ their lives get the military support that they need to _ their lives get the military support that they need to be _ their lives get the military support that they need to be able - their lives get the military support that they need to be able to i that they need to be able to prosecute _ that they need to be able to prosecute this— that they need to be able to prosecute this offensive i that they need to be able toj prosecute this offensive and that they need to be able to i prosecute this offensive and of course — prosecute this offensive and of course a — prosecute this offensive and of course a key— prosecute this offensive and of course a key point _ prosecute this offensive and of course a key point as - prosecute this offensive and of course a key point as you i prosecute this offensive and of course a key point as you say i prosecute this offensive and of| course a key point as you say is prosecute this offensive and of i course a key point as you say is to actually _ course a key point as you say is to actually bear _ course a key point as you say is to actually bear some _ course a key point as you say is to actually bear some fruit, - course a key point as you say is to actually bear some fruit, if - course a key point as you say is to actually bear some fruit, if it i actually bear some fruit, if it doesn't we _ actually bear some fruit, if it doesn't we get _ actually bear some fruit, if it doesn't we get into - actually bear some fruit, if it doesn't we get into a - actually bear some fruit, if it doesn't we get into a much i doesn't we get into a much harder fighting _ doesn't we get into a much harder fighting season _ doesn't we get into a much harder fighting season which _ doesn't we get into a much harder fighting season which is _ doesn't we get into a much harder fighting season which is the - fighting season which is the winter. you do _ fighting season which is the winter. you do have — fighting season which is the winter. you do have a — fighting season which is the winter. you do have a sense _ fighting season which is the winter. you do have a sense as— fighting season which is the winter. you do have a sense as you - you do have a sense as you say christian. — you do have a sense as you say christian, the _ you do have a sense as you say christian, the russians - you do have a sense as you say christian, the russians waitingl you do have a sense as you say i christian, the russians waiting for their— christian, the russians waiting for their moment~ _ christian, the russians waiting for their moment. when— christian, the russians waiting for their moment. when they - christian, the russians waiting for their moment. when they are i christian, the russians waiting for. their moment. when they are going christian, the russians waiting for- their moment. when they are going to strike _ their moment. when they are going to strike back— their moment. when they are going to strike back at. — their moment. when they are going to strike back at, and _ their moment. when they are going to strike back at, and i— their moment. when they are going to strike back at, and i think— their moment. when they are going to strike back at, and i think that - strike back at, and i think that is the real— strike back at, and i think that is the real problem. _ strike back at, and i think that is the real problem.— the real problem. chris, if there are countries _ the real problem. chris, if there are countries looking, _ the real problem. chris, if there are countries looking, and i the real problem. chris, if there| are countries looking, and things are countries looking, and things are bleak, and they are urging a peace process to return to the table now, how united would you say

western countries are about what that peace negotiation would look like, and how ready are the russians, indeed, to come to the table? ., . , ~' russians, indeed, to come to the table? ., ., , «i �*, table? unfortunately i think it's very difficult — table? unfortunately i think it's very difficult to _ table? unfortunately i think it's very difficult to have _ table? unfortunately i think it's very difficult to have any i table? unfortunately i think it's very difficult to have any kind i table? unfortunately i think it's| very difficult to have any kind of peace negotiation. we'll see for example the russian local elections such as they are, include the four occupied territories or an annexed territories of ukraine. and i think as winter grows on and one of the other issues is air defence systems of ukraine which are crucial in maintaining the country's cohesion and morale and that of course depends on patriot missile �*s to a large extent. patriot missile �*s are another problem there i understand where ukrainians are firing off about 150 a month, which is what the us can currently produce in about a year. so i think there are some significant areas to worry about going forward including energy, infrastructure, and ukrainian morel, really. infrastructure, and ukrainian morel, reall ., , ., ::

infrastructure, and ukrainian morel, reall. , :: , , really. just about 50 seconds left before we go _ really. just about 50 seconds left before we go to _ really. just about 50 seconds left before we go to the _ really. just about 50 seconds left before we go to the break, i really. just about 50 seconds left before we go to the break, but . really. just about 50 seconds left before we go to the break, but i | before we go to the break, but i take your point about the drones, but if you don't have 155 shells and you don't have patriot missile �*s, you're not going to be able to withhold the might of the russian army. withhold the might of the russian arm . ~ , ., ., ., army. well then you have to get the f-165 army. well then you have to get the f-16s flying. — army. well then you have to get the f-16s flying. don't _ army. well then you have to get the f-16s flying, don't you? _ army. well then you have to get the f-16s flying, don't you? that's - army. well then you have to get the f-16s flying, don't you? that's the l f—165 flying, don't you? that's the bil f—165 flying, don't you? that's the big news_ f—165 flying, don't you? that's the big news story f—16s flying, don't you? that's the big news story today i assume we'll be talking _ big news story today i assume we'll be talking more about after the break — be talking more about after the break i— be talking more about after the break. i want to f in size that there — break. i want to f in size that there are _ break. i want to f in size that there are these columns i agree with everything _ there are these columns i agree with everything chris says about the lack of capacity— everything chris says about the lack of capacity here, but nevertheless, ithink— of capacity here, but nevertheless, i think nato is continuing to supply more _ i think nato is continuing to supply more and — i think nato is continuing to supply more and more modern capabilities and equipment and the ukrainians are training— and equipment and the ukrainians are training right now in denmark. 50 training right now in denmark. so let's see — training right now in denmark. so let's see what the f—16s can provide to this _ let's see what the f—16s can provide to this fight — let's see what the f-16s can provide to this fight-— to this fight. christopher steele, thank ou to this fight. christopher steele, thank you for — to this fight. christopher steele, thank you for bringing _ to this fight. christopher steele, thank you for bringing us - to this fight. christopher steele, thank you for bringing us the - to this fight. christopher steele, l thank you for bringing us the news tonight, we'll keep a that concerns about weapons supplies in ukraine, we are going to go to a short break, then we'll talk about the big debate which is coming up in milwaukee and some breaking news in georgia the first codefendants in that case in

georgia, have started to appear. stay with us. good evening. well, it's been a day of sunshine and a few showers around, and the weather won't be changing in a hurry over the next couple of days. so a bit more of the same tomorrow, some sunshine around — warm sunshine in the south, and a few showers mostly towards the north and the west, too. now, here is the position of thejet stream at the moment — it's curling around in the atlantic and heading its way through central parts of the uk. to the north of thatjet stream, slightly cooler and more breezy conditions, whereas further south, we've got that warmer air affecting southern parts of the uk — but certainly affecting much of central and southern europe, with that hot air drifting in from the south. we have got red alerts for those high temperatures, really from parts of portugal, spain, through southern france, northern italy, towards croatia, as well. so intense heat wave through the middle of the week, still ongoing for southern parts of europe. but closer to home, here is the satellite and the radar from a little bit earlier on — you can see we've had some showers for northern ireland and scotland,

blown in on this briskjet stream that we've got flowing across the uk at the moment. further south, it's mostly dry as we head through the evening hours, and actually, most of the showers will fade away tonight. but there'll be a bit more low cloud working in through parts of the irish sea, wales, as well, a few splashes of light rain here, and a bit more cloud and a few showers for northern ireland and western scotland. but most of us, still mild, 13—14 celsius, a bit fresher across parts of central and eastern scotland under those clearer skies. so a fresh start to wednesday than we had on tuesday. through the day, fair amount of dry weather with some sunshine, as well. there will be areas of cloud, particularly through parts of wales, northern england, the odd spot of rain, and a few showers further north, but not as many as we've seen of late. the warmest weather, again, will be for southern and eastern parts of england, 25—26 celsius. typically, though, the high teens further north. now heading into thursday, low pressure is sitting across the uk, so that'll bring a bit more of an unsettled picture. not too many isobars on the chart, so not a particularly blustery sort of day, but there'll be some showery rain pushing across parts of scotland, and we could well see some sharp showers further south across some

central and southeastern parts of england, for instance, could be the odd rumble of thunder. but still warm in the southeast, 25 celsiusor so for thursday, 25 celsius or so for thursday, but those temperatures starting to come down, so the high teens for most further north. looking further ahead, there will still be some dry weather with some sunshine around, but a bit of a drop in those temperatures as we head through the bank holiday weekend. a few scattered showers on the cards, too. bye for now.

hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. eight republican candidates for president get ready to debate each other on wednesday but donald trump won't be there. eight republican candidates who are bidding to become the next president of the united states, will appear on stage tomorrow night in milwaukee, wisconsin, for the first televised debate of the primary season. with one notable exception — donald trump, the runaway favourite has said he will not be attending the debate, chaired by fox news. and instead will sit down tomorrow night for an interview with fox's former anchor tucker carlson. who doesn't necessarily like donald trump, but hey — there is a self serving interest on both side. for the other eight,

who will take part, it is an opportunity, of sorts.