that "it is perhaps unfortunate the term concrete was used." so says a report from 1961.

tonight we dissect three reports on the concrete material that's closed schools due to safety fears. how many opportunities to solve the problem were missed over 60 years. we'll be speaking to the president of the institution of structural engineers. also tonight — warnings that africa is facing a debt crisis worse than ever before. it's choices between building new roads that will provide access for food producers, social services, health and education or servicing debts. and as we head into a new term in parliament, our expert panel will talk us through the challanges facing parties with a general election inching closer.

good evening. as more than a hundred schools in england make alternative arrangements for their students following instruction from the government, newnsight has seen evidence that risks associated with reinforced autoclaved aerated concrete — being refered to as raac — were outlined as far back as 1961. although the material was deemed safe if used with protection, almost 30 years ago there were calls for regular inspections. here's kate lamble with the details. let's go back to 1961 — 1a prime ministers ago. then, harold macmillan was in charge — and bubbly—looking, aerated concrete was starting to be used in the uk, although there wasn't yet any code of practise to regulate its use. back then the institution of structural engineers wrote a paper which found aerated concrete was so different to traditional concrete, it said "it is perhaps unfortunate the term concrete was used." the same paper acknowledged many of the problems we know about so—called raac panels today. it said aerated concrete

is inherently less resistant to moisture and any steel at the centre of aerated panels to reinforce them has a lower protection from corrosion compared to traditional products. to figure out the risks, experts tested beams of aerated concrete protected or coated with different materials. some coatings like bitumen were much more effective at preventing corrosion than others. and while laboratory—protected beams did not deflect or bend much when a load was placed on them, this bottom line — beams which had not been protected, well, they bent much more and then failed, shearing orfracturing. in 1961 they concluded moisture reduced the strength of aerated concrete by 13% and exposure to polluted air for nine months reduced beams strength by a0%. so when we started using this material, we knew about these issues, we knew for performance to be maintained, aerated concrete panels needed some protection from the elements. let's skip forwards more than 30 years then, to 1996 and another report. this time from the building research establishment, which at the time was a government—funded research

laboratory, designed to help advise on the safety of building materials and construction. it notes that in 1991 it started testing raac panels from a housing development where cracks had been seen. by 1994, the department for education — then under the major government — asked them to inspect the roofs of two schools in essex where panels were cracking and bending where the water is gathering. it found these problems could be happening in similar construction. the report said there was no evidence so far to suggest raac planks posed a safety hazard to building users. but it suggested buildings with raac should be inspected annually if the structure was in poor condition or there had been persistent water penetration. cracking and bending should be noted, maintenance including water proofing done. inspections should be every five years even if the structure was in good condition. documents suggest at this point the department of education sent a warning to all schools advising the inspection and assessment of roofs with raac planks. we do not know if they advised repeated, regular inspections. but headteachers newsnight has

spoken to today said they were not aware of this suggestion. more than 20 years later, in 2019, there was still no centralised database of buildings which contained raac panels. in 2002, under the blair government, the now privatised bre produced another report, this time for the department of trade and industry. it noted there was now a history of concerns about bending and cracking raac panels which been raised by structural engineers, national and local government stretching back a number of years. testing examined how now 20—year—old panels, could crack and fail when weighted under loads. but this report also said three new things. it noted the corrosion protection — known since the �*60s to be so important "is likely to have broken down in panels over 20 years old". it noted corrosion could potentially occur without visual indications such as cracking. it's that kind of sudden collapse from a panel thought to be safe which this week the education minister said prompted the sudden change in advice we've just witnessed. a risk the government was told

about over 20 years ago. the report also found some panels didn't meet the structural regulations of the time when they were installed — described as clearly inadequate. despite this, the 2002 report still found the 20—year—old pa nels were i. safe" all this of course is before we reach the 2018 collapse at a school in gravesend or more recent investigations. 60 years of understanding across a succession of governments. it raises the question of whether current disruption could have been avoided. the government says nothing is more important than making sure children and staff are safe in schools and colleges, which is why it is acting on new evidence about raac now, ahead of the start of term. well, here to discuss the scale of the problem and what can be done, i'm joined now by matthew byatt, president of the institution of structural engineers. thank you so much forjoining us this evening. how concerned are you

about what is happening in schools with a raac at the moment? haw with a raac at the moment? how concerned. _ with a raac at the moment? how concerned, that's _ with a raac at the moment? how concerned, that's a _ with a raac at the moment? firm-0" concerned, that's a good with a raac at the moment? how concerned, that's a good starting question actually. we are concerned and have been concerned for a number of years. about raac. i know you have described a little bit about it but i would add a bit more to what you have said to the viewers understanding. raac has been explained as crumbly or bubbly but one of the key points was one of the things your first contributor said which is the term concrete is misleading. raac is an aerated autoclaved concrete but it's a different material to concrete. concrete is very dense, solid, strong. raac is very light, it is 70% air and it is not very strong and it, worryingly it degrades over

and it, worryingly it degrades over a period of time.— and it, worryingly it degrades over a period of time. your organisation has been suggesting _ a period of time. your organisation has been suggesting having - a period of time. your organisation | has been suggesting having regular inspections since 1999. why do you think that hasn't been taking place? i cannot say to be honest. we can only advise and we do that. we look at the facts, we understand more about this material as more investigations are carried out. we continually update and upgrade our advice as information becomes available. we cannot determine what people do with that but we are working proactively with people to make sure they understand the situation. we make sure they understand the situation. ~ ., �* ., ., make sure they understand the situation. ., ., , situation. we don't want to falsely scare peeple _ situation. we don't want to falsely scare people here, _ situation. we don't want to falsely scare people here, there - situation. we don't want to falsely scare people here, there will- situation. we don't want to falsely scare people here, there will be i scare people here, there will be lots of places where raac is being used and it is perfectly safe. that's correct. if raac was manufactured correctly, installed correctly with adequate bearings and

has been maintained, then it should still be safe. the issues are twofold. they are threefold, sorry. firstly it was often manufactured with insufficient reinforcement at the ends. that's important for the bearing strength. it was often placed with very small bearing wits, so it is how far it sits on ticket support and it is not very good if it gets wet and of course we have usedit it gets wet and of course we have used it a lot on ruths and the british weather and flat roofs have a tendency to leak. can british weather and flat roofs have a tendency to leak.— a tendency to leak. can it last loner if a tendency to leak. can it last longer if it — a tendency to leak. can it last longer if it doesn't _ a tendency to leak. can it last longer if it doesn't get - a tendency to leak. can it last longer if it doesn't get wet? l a tendency to leak. can it last| longer if it doesn't get wet? it a tendency to leak. can it last - longer if it doesn't get wet? it can last a good _ longer if it doesn't get wet? it can last a good amount _ longer if it doesn't get wet? it can last a good amount of _ longer if it doesn't get wet? it can last a good amount of time - longer if it doesn't get wet? it can last a good amount of time and i longer if it doesn't get wet? it can last a good amount of time and if| last a good amount of time and if the bearings are correct but it does suffer from creep deflection and what that means is it sags and it sags more and more as time goes on. the trouble with that is that as something sags, it actually moves itself away from its bearings, from

the supports and you can imagine this if you get a ruler between two cups or something at home and push it down the middle, you can see the end is moving away. who; it down the middle, you can see the end is moving away.— it down the middle, you can see the end is moving away. why has it been used so widely _ end is moving away. why has it been used so widely then _ end is moving away. why has it been used so widely then if _ end is moving away. why has it been used so widely then if we _ end is moving away. why has it been used so widely then if we know - end is moving away. why has it been| used so widely then if we know these flaws exist? these reports we have been looking at spell out the risks associated with the material. the? associated with the material. they do and i think— associated with the material. tie: do and i think people used associated with the material. ti21 do and i think people used it because it was very light it was very fast, it was very cost—effective and it gave good insulation values. it has not been used as far as we are aware since the 1990s and the majority of the buildings which have issues with raac are 1960s to 1980s. i’m buildings which have issues with raac are 1960s to 1980s. i'm going to turn back — raac are 1960s to 1980s. i'm going to turn back to — raac are 1960s to 1980s. i'm going to turn back to our— raac are 1960s to 1980s. i'm going to turn back to our correspondence | to turn back to our correspondence kate lambourne who followed the ground felt inquiry carefully. do you notice any similarities between the cladding scandal kate and what

we are seeing here or is it dangerous to compare the two? there are clear differences _ dangerous to compare the two? there are clear differences here. _ dangerous to compare the two? there are clear differences here. what we have in _ are clear differences here. what we have in common is we see immature use because — have in common is we see immature use because they have particular advantages. we heard about raac being _ advantages. we heard about raac being lightweight, good thermal protection. we know these materials can be _ protection. we know these materials can be used — protection. we know these materials can be used safely if the right things— can be used safely if the right things are put in place, despite that we — things are put in place, despite that we have seen widespread building — that we have seen widespread building safety concerns and we also see a _ building safety concerns and we also see a pattern of repeated warnings over decades, over successive governments, warnings that are not acted _ governments, warnings that are not acted upon — governments, warnings that are not acted upon-— governments, warnings that are not acted upon. matthew you heard that from kate. acted upon. matthew you heard that from kate- in _ acted upon. matthew you heard that from kate. in your _ acted upon. matthew you heard that from kate. in your mind, _ acted upon. matthew you heard that from kate. in your mind, do - acted upon. matthew you heard that from kate. in your mind, do you - acted upon. matthew you heard that from kate. in your mind, do you see any patterns? people will be thinking about grenfell. the? any patterns? people will be thinking about grenfell. they will. we have two _ thinking about grenfell. they will. we have two very _ thinking about grenfell. they will. we have two very serious - thinking about grenfell. they will. i we have two very serious concerns. grenfell was very much to do with fire and what we have here is a material that is at risk of collapse with little or no warning. it's

really important, the route forward is really important that all building owners and estate managers understand, firstly do they have raac in their buildings? if so they need to inspect it with a qualified engineer to understand its condition and then there is guidance which enables a risk to be determined. they need to regularly inspected, review it and if necessary get urgent mitigation in place. we've had a message — urgent mitigation in place. we've had a message from _ urgent mitigation in place. we've had a message from a _ urgent mitigation in place. we've had a message from a viewer - urgent mitigation in place. we've i had a message from a viewer asking should we be concerned about this being used in housing from the 60s and 70s. i being used in housing from the 60s and 70s. ., �* ~ ., ~ being used in housing from the 60s and70s. ~ ., . ~ ., and 70s. i don't know. we know it was used in _ and 70s. i don't know. we know it was used in low-rise, _ and 70s. i don't know. we know it was used in low-rise, flat - and 70s. i don't know. we know it was used in low-rise, flat roofed l was used in low—rise, flat roofed construction predominantly. i am not aware of it being used in housing but it may well have been, i cannot preclude that. we know it can be found in schools, we know it can be

found in schools, we know it can be found in schools, we know it can be found in hospitals. that was widely discussed a year or two ago and we know it is also found in other government type buildings like courts. , ., , courts. sorry to interrupt about briefl , courts. sorry to interrupt about briefly, labour— courts. sorry to interrupt about briefly, labour is _ courts. sorry to interrupt about briefly, labour is calling - courts. sorry to interrupt about briefly, labour is calling for - courts. sorry to interrupt about briefly, labour is calling for an | briefly, labour is calling for an urgent audit. how feasible is that? it's feasible that all building owners understand what their buildings are made of. there are a lot of buildings so you had to be realistic about timescales to carry this work—out. but it is imperative that where there is raac, people understand it is there and understand it is there and understand its condition. thank you so much, matthew— understand its condition. thank you so much, matthew byatt _ understand its condition. thank you so much, matthew byatt and - understand its condition. thank you so much, matthew byatt and kate. | africa is facing a debt crisis worse than any seen before — caused by rising global interest rates, inflation and a lack of finance from lenders like the world bank. that's the warning of a major new report by the one foundation. it says if swift action is not

taken, there will be consequences far outside the continent. 0ur correspondentjoe inwood has been looking at the findings. what do you get if you combine already rising african debt, a global pandemic and soaring inflation? i think we are facing a debt crisis that is likely to be bigger than we saw some 20 years ago when there was a huge initiative by the international community to deal with what was then a major debt crisis for poor countries. an estimated 200,000 people marched through edinburgh to show their support for the make poverty history... in 2005, the make poverty history campaign saw a landmark deal on debt. out of that movement came the one campaign who wrote this report. history it seems does repeat itself. kenya is currently facing protests over tax rises and in april, didn't pay civil servants to avoid a default. ghana recently cut its health

budgets in half and in nigeria — often thought of as an african powerhouse — the health system is at the point of collapse. i remember her smile. i remember she was very passionate. dr vwaere diaso knew that crumbling health system was costing patients lives. she didn't realise it would take hers as well. just 1a days before she finished her internship at lagos general hospital, a faulty lift fell nine floors with her inside. her injuries were catastrophic but might have been survived had the hospital been properly equipped. i believe dr vwaere died as a result of the poor funding of the health care sector in general. of course it is impossible to say that one faulty lift was directly caused by debt, but nigeria spends twice as much servicing loans as it does on health and education combined.

it's choices between building new roads that will provide access for food producers, funding social services, health and education or servicing debts. but there is something else. look at the type of debt that africa has built up in recent years. that red section is from private lenders, the bond markets. as well as being more expensive, it is vulnerable to rises in global interest rates. when the interest rates rise, the debt that we get on the continent also increases, so african countries, when they go to the capital market to get resources, pay five times more because the capital markets are affected by interest rate rising. they pay five times more than they would pay with low interest options. those options are lenders like the world bank or the imf. this report is calling for a massive expansion of lending from them.

of course, african governments are not passive in this. there are many legitimate concerns about the way that borrowed money is spent, either prioritising other areas like defence or simply wasted. there is nothing wrong with borrowing, it is what you do with the monies you've borrowed. the monies you've borrowed, have you used it to make the country more productive so that we get more money to pay the debt or are we borrowing to finance lifestyle and fly private jets and run large convoys for government functionaries? if that's what we are borrowing for, we are entering into a deep pit that will be difficult to come out of. some would argue that the finances of many african governments are already in that deep pit. whether a way out can be found will depend on the level of collective global action. something that is currently in short supply. monday marks a new term in parliament — and what a crucial term it will be. there are two by—elections — in rutherglen and nadine dorries' former seat of mid bedfordshire —

and of course the party conferences as we head into full blown election fever — or apathy. the leaders will be trying to put forward their visions for what their future government would look like, and the prime minister will be under pressure to fulfil his five pledges, including to stop the boats and cut nhs waiting lists. so what can we expect to see? joining us to discuss this and more is conservative peer and former advisor to william hague and john major, danny finkelstein, miranda green, deputy comments editor for the financial times and former press secretary to paddy ashdown, and sonia sodha, 0bserver columnist and adviser to labour's ed miliband when he was party leader. thank you so much to the three of you forjoining us. starting with you, danny, we can't ignore the raac story that's going on. it is day two, how well —— but how do you

think, but do? figs two, how well -- but how do you think, but do?— think, but do? as long as it's are able to go _ think, but do? as long as it's are able to go back _ think, but do? as long as it's are able to go back it _ think, but do? as long as it's are able to go back it will— think, but do? as long as it's are able to go back it will be - think, but do? as long as it's are able to go back it will be an - able to go back it will be an important issue. naturally there will be a lot of reporting and probably finally an inquiry as to how we got to this point but whatever the results of that reporting and of the quarry, the government will suffer as a result. when you are a government you always suffer as a result of this, however much of it turns out to be their fault. there are so many decisions and it'll be hard to get them right and it'll be hard to get them right and to get the children back to school in a way that satisfies parents. very worrying for all parents. very worrying for all parents. i think politically it's very tough. parents. i think politically it's very tough-— parents. i think politically it's ve tou~h. ~ ., ., , very tough. miranda, the timing is not ideal, very tough. miranda, the timing is not ideal. going — very tough. miranda, the timing is not ideal, going back— very tough. miranda, the timing is not ideal, going back to _ very tough. miranda, the timing is not ideal, going back to term - very tough. miranda, the timing is not ideal, going back to term nextj not ideal, going back to term next week, it's been announced a couple of days ago, not ideal.— of days ago, not ideal. indeed, it also, the backdrop _ of days ago, not ideal. indeed, it also, the backdrop to _ of days ago, not ideal. indeed, it also, the backdrop to the - of days ago, not ideal. indeed, it| also, the backdrop to the election we are _ also, the backdrop to the election we are going to have, the crucial things— we are going to have, the crucial things are — we are going to have, the crucial things are going to be the state of the economy and the state of the public— the economy and the state of the public sector and public services. if public sector and public services. if you _ public sector and public services. if you have — public sector and public services. if you have got this awful symbol of what school wrong with the public sphere _

what school wrong with the public sphere literally crumbling, it is extremely unhelpful for the government after 30 years. as danny says, _ government after 30 years. as danny says, whatever actually turns out to be the _ says, whatever actually turns out to be the cause of this problem not having _ be the cause of this problem not having been tackled in previous decades, — having been tackled in previous decades, the buck stops with the current— decades, the buck stops with the current government. so it will be very inconvenient for them. when you add literatiy— very inconvenient for them. when you add literally crumbling schools to the nhs — add literally crumbling schools to the nhs waiting lists, all of the other— the nhs waiting lists, all of the other problems across the public sector, _ other problems across the public sector, that is people's day—to—day experience — sector, that is people's day—to—day experience. i that the government will have _ experience. i that the government will have to try and tell some sort of optimistic story about the economy finally sort of ticking upwards _ economy finally sort of ticking upwards. obviously 0ns economy finally sort of ticking upwards. obviously ons decided to find two _ upwards. obviously ons decided to find two percentage of growth of gdp will presumably help jeremy hunt about— will presumably help jeremy hunt about the autumn statement but is not a _ about the autumn statement but is not a good — about the autumn statement but is not a good backdrop. let�*s about the autumn statement but is not a good backdrop.— about the autumn statement but is not a good backdrop. let's move on to the economy- — not a good backdrop. let's move on to the economy. how— not a good backdrop. let's move on to the economy. how important - not a good backdrop. let's move on to the economy. how important is l not a good backdrop. let's move on i to the economy. how important is it? one of the purchase is to bring down inflation by the end of the year. is that going to be the key issue, do

you think, for voters deciding who to vote for? i you think, for voters deciding who to vote for?— you think, for voters deciding who to vote for? ., ~ ., ., to vote for? i agree with miranda, i think the economy _ to vote for? i agree with miranda, i think the economy is _ to vote for? i agree with miranda, i think the economy is everything. it| think the economy is everything. it will be _ think the economy is everything. it will be an— think the economy is everything. it will be an election _ think the economy is everything. it will be an election primarily - think the economy is everything. it will be an election primarily aboutl will be an election primarily about the economy— will be an election primarily about the economy and _ will be an election primarily about the economy and that _ will be an election primarily about the economy and that will - will be an election primarily about the economy and that will be - the economy and that will be determined _ the economy and that will be determined by— the economy and that will be determined by how - the economy and that will be determined by how voters i the economy and that will be i determined by how voters are feeling, — determined by how voters are feeling, how— determined by how voters are feeling, how they _ determined by how voters are feeling, how they feel- determined by how voters are feeling, how they feel about i determined by how voters are - feeling, how they feel about their own laudgets— feeling, how they feel about their own budgets so— feeling, how they feel about their own budgets so i— feeling, how they feel about their own budgets so i think— feeling, how they feel about their own budgets so i think if- feeling, how they feel about their own budgets so i think if we - feeling, how they feel about their own budgets so i think if we talkl own budgets so i think if we talk about— own budgets so i think if we talk about these _ own budgets so i think if we talk about these pledges _ own budgets so i think if we talk about these pledges that rishi l own budgets so i think if we talk - about these pledges that rishi sunak has set _ about these pledges that rishi sunak has set himself, _ about these pledges that rishi sunak has set himself, three _ about these pledges that rishi sunak has set himself, three out _ about these pledges that rishi sunak has set himself, three out of- about these pledges that rishi sunak has set himself, three out of five - has set himself, three out of five to do— has set himself, three out of five to do with — has set himself, three out of five to do with economy, _ has set himself, three out of five to do with economy, but - has set himself, three out of fivej to do with economy, but whether has set himself, three out of five i to do with economy, but whether he technically— to do with economy, but whether he technically meets _ to do with economy, but whether he technically meets having _ to do with economy, but whether he technically meets having inflation, l technically meets having inflation, that is— technically meets having inflation, that is not— technically meets having inflation, that is not wattel_ technically meets having inflation, that is not wattel be _ technically meets having inflation, that is not wattel be going - technically meets having inflation, | that is not wattel be going through the minds — that is not wattel be going through the minds of— that is not wattel be going through the minds of voters, _ that is not wattel be going through the minds of voters, it— that is not wattel be going through the minds of voters, it will- that is not wattel be going through the minds of voters, it will be, - that is not wattel be going through| the minds of voters, it will be, how are things — the minds of voters, it will be, how are things feeling _ the minds of voters, it will be, how are things feeling for _ the minds of voters, it will be, how are things feeling for me? - the minds of voters, it will be, how are things feeling for me? i- the minds of voters, it will be, how are things feeling for me? i think. are things feeling for me? i think the for— are things feeling for me? i think the for the — are things feeling for me? i think the for the government - are things feeling for me? i think the for the government is- are things feeling for me? i think the for the government is that i are things feeling for me? i think. the for the government is that even if things— the for the government is that even if things are — the for the government is that even if things are perhaps _ the for the government is that even if things are perhaps not _ the for the government is that even if things are perhaps not quite - the for the government is that even if things are perhaps not quite as i if things are perhaps not quite as bad as— if things are perhaps not quite as bad as people _ if things are perhaps not quite as bad as people might— if things are perhaps not quite as bad as people might have - if things are perhaps not quite as bad as people might have been i bad as people might have been forecasting, _ bad as people might have been forecasting, and _ bad as people might have been forecasting, and there - bad as people might have been forecasting, and there was - bad as people might have been forecasting, and there was this| bad as people might have been - forecasting, and there was this good news today, — forecasting, and there was this good news today, it — forecasting, and there was this good news today, it comes _ forecasting, and there was this good news today, it comes on _ forecasting, and there was this good news today, it comes on top - forecasting, and there was this good news today, it comes on top of- news today, it comes on top of really. — news today, it comes on top of really. really _ news today, it comes on top of really, really difficult _ news today, it comes on top of really, really difficult 18 - news today, it comes on top ofi really, really difficult 18 months in terms — really, really difficult 18 months in terms of— really, really difficult 18 months in terms of the _ really, really difficult 18 months in terms of the cost _ really, really difficult 18 months in terms of the cost of - really, really difficult 18 months in terms of the cost of living, i really, really difficult 18 months in terms of the cost of living, inj in terms of the cost of living, in terms _ in terms of the cost of living, in terms of— in terms of the cost of living, in terms of household _ in terms of the cost of living, in terms of household budgets - in terms of the cost of living, ini terms of household budgets and in terms of the cost of living, in. terms of household budgets and i in terms of the cost of living, in- terms of household budgets and i do think that _ terms of household budgets and i do think that decision _ terms of household budgets and i do think that decision is _ terms of household budgets and i do think that decision is that _ terms of household budgets and i do think that decision is that the - think that decision is that the government— think that decision is that the government has— think that decision is that the government has taken - think that decision is that the government has taken have i think that decision is that the - government has taken have made global— government has taken have made global headwinds_ government has taken have made

global headwinds worse. - government has taken have made global headwinds worse. brexit i government has taken have made. global headwinds worse. brexit has unquestionably— global headwinds worse. brexit has unquestionably had _ global headwinds worse. brexit has unquestionably had an _ global headwinds worse. brexit has unquestionably had an impact - global headwinds worse. brexit has unquestionably had an impact on i unquestionably had an impact on productivity _ unquestionably had an impact on productivity and _ unquestionably had an impact on productivity and how— unquestionably had an impact on productivity and how well - unquestionably had an impact on productivity and how well off - unquestionably had an impact on i productivity and how well off people feel in_ productivity and how well off people feel in the _ productivity and how well off people feel in the pockets. _ productivity and how well off people feel in the pockets. that— productivity and how well off people feel in the pockets.— feel in the pockets. that will also determine how _ feel in the pockets. that will also determine how the _ feel in the pockets. that will also determine how the parties - feel in the pockets. that will also | determine how the parties decide they are going to complain. if you are keir starmer and the economy doesn't take upwards, obviously the economy is the issue to run on. if the economy is going to get better, rishi sunak could try and run on it, then keir starmer has to find another issue. as we run into conference season, what strategists will be thinking about is, we understand where we will go of the economy goes on a certain direction, whether we are labour or tory, what is a secondary issue? 15 whether we are labour or tory, what is a secondary issue?— is a secondary issue? is keir starmer _ is a secondary issue? is keir starmer doing _ is a secondary issue? is keir starmer doing enough? - is a secondary issue? is keir starmer doing enough? is . is a secondary issue? is keir| starmer doing enough? is he is a secondary issue? is keir - starmer doing enough? is he thinking about the economy enough or could it be helpful for him to not say that much at this point? 19 be helpful for him to not say that much at this point?— be helpful for him to not say that much at this point? 19 points ahead. he is doinu much at this point? 19 points ahead. he is doing something _ much at this point? 19 points ahead. he is doing something right. - much at this point? 19 points ahead. he is doing something right. or - much at this point? 19 points ahead. he is doing something right. or at l he is doing something right. or at least he is not doing something wrong. so at the moment people don't

feel a threat for a labour government and hisjob has been reassurance and —— i think that's the correct political strategy. people say he needs a vision, i think reassurance is much more important. however, he does need to identify what he's going to run on if rishi sunak does begin to get a chance to run on the issue of the economy, which is definitely possible, not because of what's happened in the past but because of what we can see with the figures but do ou what we can see with the figures but do you not think actually if the economy turns to be doing better than without, it helps labour as well? one of the difficult problems is pop with the change actually look like under labour if there is no money to spend? so actually, if things start to get a more optimistic feeling in terms of prosperity, you might actually be able to return to more traditional labour territory on how we are going to spend some of this money, then it is choices in a positive way rather than negative choices and endless messages from rachel reeves about

what we will not be able to afford and irritating the left and all those problems. we touched on vision, but political leaders having a vision, how crucial is it for them to have a vision quest and i was talking to one focus group who said they didn't feel rishi sunak was illustrating his vision for the future. i rishi sunak was illustrating his vision for the future.— rishi sunak was illustrating his vision for the future. i think the roblem vision for the future. i think the problem he _ vision for the future. i think the problem he has _ vision for the future. i think the problem he has got _ vision for the future. i think the problem he has got a _ vision for the future. i think the problem he has got a problem | vision for the future. i think the l problem he has got a problem for vision for the future. i think the - problem he has got a problem for the conservatives — problem he has got a problem for the conservatives is— problem he has got a problem for the conservatives is that _ problem he has got a problem for the conservatives is that they've - problem he has got a problem for the conservatives is that they've been - conservatives is that they've been in government _ conservatives is that they've been in government for— conservatives is that they've been in government for 13 _ conservatives is that they've been in government for 13 years - conservatives is that they've been in government for 13 years and - conservatives is that they've been| in government for 13 years and the economy— in government for 13 years and the economy has— in government for 13 years and the economy has been _ in government for 13 years and the economy has been great, - in government for 13 years and the economy has been great, the - in government for 13 years and the. economy has been great, the public realm _ economy has been great, the public realm isn't— economy has been great, the public realm isn't feeling _ economy has been great, the public realm isn't feeling great _ economy has been great, the public realm isn't feeling great and - economy has been great, the public realm isn't feeling great and votersl realm isn't feeling great and voters are going _ realm isn't feeling great and voters are going to— realm isn't feeling great and voters are going to hold _ realm isn't feeling great and voters are going to hold the _ realm isn't feeling great and voters are going to hold the government. realm isn't feeling great and votersl are going to hold the government of the day— are going to hold the government of the day responsible. _ are going to hold the government of the day responsible. so _ are going to hold the government of the day responsible. so he - are going to hold the government of the day responsible. so he can- are going to hold the government of the day responsible. so he can try. the day responsible. so he can try and create — the day responsible. so he can try and create a — the day responsible. so he can try and create a vision _ the day responsible. so he can try and create a vision that's - the day responsible. so he can try and create a vision that's what - the day responsible. so he can tryl and create a vision that's what he's trying _ and create a vision that's what he's trying to— and create a vision that's what he's trying to do— and create a vision that's what he's trying to do with _ and create a vision that's what he's trying to do with his _ and create a vision that's what he's trying to do with his pledges - and create a vision that's what he's trying to do with his pledges but. trying to do with his pledges but you are — trying to do with his pledges but you are going _ trying to do with his pledges but you are going to _ trying to do with his pledges but you are going to get _ trying to do with his pledges but you are going to get tested - trying to do with his pledges but you are going to get tested on l you are going to get tested on what's — you are going to get tested on what's actually— you are going to get tested on what's actually happening - you are going to get tested on what's actually happening in l you are going to get tested on i what's actually happening in the country— what's actually happening in the country and _ what's actually happening in the country and that's _ what's actually happening in the country and that's the _ what's actually happening in the country and that's the problem i what's actually happening in the . country and that's the problem for them _ country and that's the problem for them i_ country and that's the problem for them ithink— country and that's the problem for them. i think keir— country and that's the problem for them. i think keir starmer, - country and that's the problem for them. ithink keir starmer, i- country and that's the problem forl them. i think keir starmer, i would agree _ them. i think keir starmer, i would agree with — them. i think keir starmer, i would agree with danny. _ them. i think keir starmer, i would agree with danny, i— them. i think keir starmer, i would agree with danny, i think— them. i think keir starmer, i would agree with danny, i think he's- agree with danny, i think he's playing — agree with danny, i think he's playing a _ agree with danny, i think he's playing a very _ agree with danny, i think he's playing a very risk averse - agree with danny, i think he's- playing a very risk averse strategy, doing _ playing a very risk averse strategy, doing everything _ playing a very risk averse strategy, doing everything he _ playing a very risk averse strategy, doing everything he can _ playing a very risk averse strategy, doing everything he can to- playing a very risk averse strategy, i doing everything he can to maximise his doing everything he canto maximise his chances— doing everything he can to maximise his chances of— doing everything he can to maximise his chances of winning _ doing everything he can to maximise his chances of winning the _ doing everything he can to maximise his chances of winning the next - his chances of winning the next election— his chances of winning the next election and _ his chances of winning the next election and that _ his chances of winning the next election and that involves - his chances of winning the next election and that involves not i his chances of winning the next i election and that involves not sort of striking — election and that involves not sort of striking out _ election and that involves not sort of striking out two _ election and that involves not sort of striking out two hot _ election and that involves not sort of striking out two hot on - election and that involves not sort of striking out two hot on the -

election and that involves not sort of striking out two hot on the setl of striking out two hot on the set may go _ of striking out two hot on the set may go down _ of striking out two hot on the set may go down really— of striking out two hot on the set may go down really well- of striking out two hot on the set may go down really well with - may go down really well with photos that might _ may go down really well with photos that might turn _ may go down really well with photos that might turn supporters - may go down really well with photos that might turn supporters off, - may go down really well with photos that might turn supporters off, he . that might turn supporters off, he isjust_ that might turn supporters off, he is just sitting _ that might turn supporters off, he is just sitting there _ that might turn supporters off, he is just sitting there and _ that might turn supporters off, he isjust sitting there and soaking i that might turn supporters off, he | isjust sitting there and soaking up all the _ isjust sitting there and soaking up all the disaffection_ isjust sitting there and soaking up all the disaffection there _ isjust sitting there and soaking up all the disaffection there is - isjust sitting there and soaking up all the disaffection there is in - isjust sitting there and soaking up all the disaffection there is in the i all the disaffection there is in the country— all the disaffection there is in the country with _ all the disaffection there is in the country with the _ all the disaffection there is in the country with the conservative - all the disaffection there is in the i country with the conservative party. is country with the conservative party. is there _ country with the conservative party. is there a _ country with the conservative party. is there a danger— country with the conservative party. is there a danger that _ country with the conservative party. is there a danger that by— country with the conservative party. is there a danger that by doing - is there a danger that by doing that... ., ., , �* ., that... the one thing, tony blair, came to realise, _ that... the one thing, tony blair, came to realise, he _ that... the one thing, tony blair, came to realise, he actually, - that... the one thing, tony blair, came to realise, he actually, he i that... the one thing, tony blair, i came to realise, he actually, he was basically of the centre—right and he believed his reassurance, not simply as an electoral strategy but i do logically he believed it. i'm not sure keir starmer does, it's hard to be sure. i'm not even sure if keir starmer knows that. so there is a potential problem but let's say it is a problem i would rather have of the two, he would rather have all of keir starmer�*s problems than those of rishi sunak. that look sincere that might be a problem because people might think, i wonder if he really believes it. tony blair had a way of projecting that he sincerely believed this policy, because he

did. is believed this policy, because he did. , , . ., , did. is it insincere or is it dull? i think did. is it insincere or is it dull? i think it _ did. is it insincere or is it dull? i think it is _ did. is it insincere or is it dull? i think it is becoming - did. is it insincere or is it dull? i think it is becoming a - did. is it insincere or is it dull? i think it is becoming a bit - did. is it insincere or is it dull? i think it is becoming a bit of i did. is it insincere or is it dull? i think it is becoming a bit of a | i think it is becoming a bit of a problem _ i think it is becoming a bit of a problem. the cautious strategy of keir starmer, problem. the cautious strategy of keirstarmer, i problem. the cautious strategy of keir starmer, i think it is slightly ruhhihg — keir starmer, i think it is slightly running out of road because quite soon _ running out of road because quite soon it— running out of road because quite soon it feels to me, the public are actually— soon it feels to me, the public are actually going to want to know what actually going to want to know what a labour— actually going to want to know what a labour government would involve that it's _ a labour government would involve that it's quite hard to answer that question— that it's quite hard to answer that question at the moment. sol that it's quite hard to answer that question at the moment. so i think the party— question at the moment. so i think the party conference will be very important — the party conference will be very important for keir starmer to try and pull— important for keir starmer to try and pull some sort of vision of hope and pull some sort of vision of hope and change — and pull some sort of vision of hope and change-— and pull some sort of vision of hope and change. what do you think some ofthe and change. what do you think some of the traps — and change. what do you think some of the traps for _ and change. what do you think some of the traps for him _ and change. what do you think some of the traps for him might _ and change. what do you think some of the traps for him might be? - and change. what do you think some of the traps for him might be? i - of the traps for him might be? i actually think a real danger of the strategy— actually think a real danger of the strategy is — actually think a real danger of the strategy is as _ actually think a real danger of the strategy is as miranda _ actually think a real danger of the strategy is as miranda says, - actually think a real danger of the j strategy is as miranda says, there is a risk— strategy is as miranda says, there is a risk that— strategy is as miranda says, there is a risk that actually— strategy is as miranda says, there is a risk that actually because - is a risk that actually because people are _ is a risk that actually because people are mostly— is a risk that actually because people are mostly repelled . is a risk that actually because i people are mostly repelled from is a risk that actually because - people are mostly repelled from the conservatives — people are mostly repelled from the conservatives rather— people are mostly repelled from the conservatives rather than _ people are mostly repelled from the conservatives rather than attracted. conservatives rather than attracted towards _ conservatives rather than attracted towards you. — conservatives rather than attracted towards you, that _ conservatives rather than attracted towards you, that poll— conservatives rather than attracted towards you, that poll lead - conservatives rather than attracted towards you, that poll lead is - conservatives rather than attracted towards you, that poll lead is a - conservatives rather than attracted towards you, that poll lead is a bit| towards you, that poll lead is a bit softer— towards you, that poll lead is a bit softer than — towards you, that poll lead is a bit softer than it — towards you, that poll lead is a bit softer than it would _ towards you, that poll lead is a bit softer than it would be _ towards you, that poll lead is a bit softer than it would be if- towards you, that poll lead is a bit softer than it would be if they - towards you, that poll lead is a bit| softer than it would be if they were really drawn — softer than it would be if they were really drawn to _ softer than it would be if they were really drawn to a _ softer than it would be if they were really drawn to a labour _ softer than it would be if they were really drawn to a labour vision - softer than it would be if they were really drawn to a labour vision but| really drawn to a labour vision but ithink— really drawn to a labour vision but i think they— really drawn to a labour vision but i think they are _ really drawn to a labour vision but i think they are the _ really drawn to a labour vision but i think they are the real _ really drawn to a labour vision but i think they are the real risk - really drawn to a labour vision but i think they are the real risk is, . i think they are the real risk is, part— i think they are the real risk is, part of— i think they are the real risk is, part of setting _ i think they are the real risk is, part of setting out _ i think they are the real risk is,

part of setting out your- i think they are the real risk is, part of setting out your vision i i think they are the real risk is, i part of setting out your vision for government— part of setting out your vision for government is— part of setting out your vision for government is actually— part of setting out your vision for. government is actually developing your agenda — government is actually developing your agenda for— government is actually developing your agenda for government, - government is actually developing your agenda for government, the. your agenda for government, the first two— your agenda for government, the first two or — your agenda for government, the first two or three _ your agenda for government, the first two or three years. - your agenda for government, the first two or three years. and - your agenda for government, the first two or three years. and i - first two or three years. and i think— first two or three years. and i think there _ first two or three years. and i think there is _ first two or three years. and i think there is a _ first two or three years. and i think there is a risk _ first two or three years. and i think there is a risk that - first two or three years. and i think there is a risk that in . first two or three years. and i | think there is a risk that in not shaping — think there is a risk that in not shaping it— think there is a risk that in not shaping it and— think there is a risk that in not shaping it and not— think there is a risk that in not. shaping it and not communicating think there is a risk that in not - shaping it and not communicating it, it doesn't— shaping it and not communicating it, it doesn't lead — shaping it and not communicating it, it doesn't lead labour— shaping it and not communicating it, it doesn't lead labour a _ shaping it and not communicating it, it doesn't lead labour a little - shaping it and not communicating it, it doesn't lead labour a little bit- it doesn't lead labour a little bit like, _ it doesn't lead labour a little bit like. well, — it doesn't lead labour a little bit like, well, what _ it doesn't lead labour a little bit like, well, what are _ it doesn't lead labour a little bit like, well, what are we - it doesn't lead labour a little bit like, well, what are we here - it doesn't lead labour a little bit like, well, what are we here to. it doesn't lead labour a little bit. like, well, what are we here to do when _ like, well, what are we here to do when we — like, well, what are we here to do when we win— like, well, what are we here to do when we win the _ like, well, what are we here to do when we win the election? - like, well, what are we here to do when we win the election? it’s - like, well, what are we here to do when we win the election?- when we win the election? it's a roblem when we win the election? it's a problem they — when we win the election? it's a problem they will _ when we win the election? it's a problem they will have. - when we win the election? it's a problem they will have. this - when we win the election? it's a problem they will have. this is i when we win the election? it's a j problem they will have. this is a terrible phrase, but i think vision is overrated, i think governments need narratives, people need to know what is the challenge of this government is trying to conquer and how are they going to set about broadly conquering it chris mackay think i would agree that there isn't a clear... at the moment people think, and keir starmer�*s task is to defeat the conservatives. they quite like that narrative but if he does that, what will he do then? i think he might have his problem in government. but he probably doesn't mind the fact that the he storing up

a one stop alone it's a nice problem to have. we a one stop alone it's a nice problem to have. ~ ., ., _ . ., , to have. we have two by-elections cominu to have. we have two by-elections coming up- — to have. we have two by-elections coming up- in _ to have. we have two by-elections coming up. in rutherglen, - to have. we have two by-elections coming up. in rutherglen, is- to have. we have two by-elections coming up. in rutherglen, is that. coming up. in rutherglen, is that more important for labour to win? it is extremely important. the route back to _ is extremely important. the route back to downing street has to run through— back to downing street has to run through scotland. there have been polls through scotland. there have been potls now _ through scotland. there have been polls now showing that they are close _ polls now showing that they are close enough to the snp to maybe pick up _ close enough to the snp to maybe pick up 15— close enough to the snp to maybe pick up 15 to 20 seats in scotland. if pick up 15 to 20 seats in scotland. if they _ pick up 15 to 20 seats in scotland. if they can— pick up 15 to 20 seats in scotland. if they can do a comfortable win, that's— if they can do a comfortable win, that's important. the if they can do a comfortable win, that's important.— if they can do a comfortable win, that's important. the other thing i would question _ that's important. the other thing i would question is _ that's important. the other thing i would question is why _ that's important. the other thing i would question is why does - that's important. the other thing i would question is why does the i would question is why does the proving matter? by—elections are really bad opinion polls and to give a little bit of proof. but really bad opinion polls and to give a little bit of proof.— a little bit of proof. but it is aood a little bit of proof. but it is good for — a little bit of proof. but it is good for morale. _ a little bit of proof. but it is good for morale. i - a little bit of proof. but it is good for morale. i think - a little bit of proof. but it is| good for morale. i think you a little bit of proof. but it is - good for morale. i think you talked about— good for morale. i think you talked about narrative, danny. it shapes a narrative _ about narrative, danny. it shapes a narrative for — about narrative, danny. it shapes a narrative for the months to come. for the _ narrative for the months to come. for the press, narrative for the months to come. forthe press, maybe. forthe public, i don't know. for the press, maybe. for the public, i don't know.— for the press, maybe. for the public, i don't know. you have a aood public, i don't know. you have a good track _ public, i don't know. you have a good track records _ public, i don't know. you have a good track records of _ public, i don't know. you have a good track records of giving -

public, i don't know. you have a i good track records of giving advice to prominent politicians. if you are giving advice to rishi sunak today, danny, what would that be? i think it onl has danny, what would that be? i think it only has one _ danny, what would that be? i think it only has one chance _ danny, what would that be? i think it only has one chance of _ danny, what would that be? i think it only has one chance of doing - danny, what would that be? i think| it only has one chance of doing well in the election and that is for the economy to succeed. i wouldn't divert from anything that helps the economy from doing that in the next year to 18 months, so he needs to look after the election and about six months beyond what is going to drive the economy forward, hope he can tell that story and if he can tell that story and difficult i don't think there is anything that can happen when.— don't think there is anything that can happen when. what is the royal ed davey here? _ can happen when. what is the royal ed davey here? we _ can happen when. what is the royal ed davey here? we know _ can happen when. what is the royal ed davey here? we know he - can happen when. what is the royal ed davey here? we know he is - can happen when. what is the royal i ed davey here? we know he is against brexit party what is to know about him? he brexit party what is to know about him? ., , ,. , , ., brexit party what is to know about him? ,. , , him? he has described his own “0b is 'ust him? he has described his own “0b is just removing — him? he has described his own “0b is just removing as i him? he has described his own “0b is just removing as many �* him? he has described his own job is just removing as many conservative. just removing as many conservative mps as— just removing as many conservative mps as possible at the election, slightly— mps as possible at the election, slightly uninspiring message. we will have — slightly uninspiring message. we will have to work a bit more on the positive _ will have to work a bit more on the positive case for voting lib dem. but that— positive case for voting lib dem. but that geographical pattern where the lib_ but that geographical pattern where the lib dems are the on the one who can take _ the lib dems are the on the one who can take seats from the tories, different— can take seats from the tories, different from where the labour party— different from where the labour party can, — different from where the labour party can, it's going to be crucial for depriving rishi sunak of his majority— for depriving rishi sunak of his majority next time. they need to

work— majority next time. they need to work on — majority next time. they need to work on their vision. i think sometimes, voters need motivating to turn up _ sometimes, voters need motivating to turn up on _ sometimes, voters need motivating to turn up on the day. sometimes, voters need motivating to turn up on the day-— turn up on the day. sonia, your advice to _ turn up on the day. sonia, your advice to sir— turn up on the day. sonia, your advice to sir keir— turn up on the day. sonia, your advice to sir keir starmer? - turn up on the day. sonia, your advice to sir keir starmer? i i turn up on the day. sonia, your . advice to sir keir starmer? i would sa it's advice to sir keir starmer? i would say it's difficult _ advice to sir keir starmer? i would say it's difficult because _ advice to sir keir starmer? i would say it's difficult because labour - say it's difficult because labour does _ say it's difficult because labour does not — say it's difficult because labour does not want _ say it's difficult because labour does not want to _ say it's difficult because labour does not want to make - say it's difficult because labouri does not want to make unfunded spending — does not want to make unfunded spending commitments, - does not want to make unfunded spending commitments, and - does not want to make unfunded spending commitments, and so. does not want to make unfunded - spending commitments, and so much of what i _ spending commitments, and so much of what i think— spending commitments, and so much of what i think needs _ spending commitments, and so much of what i think needs to _ spending commitments, and so much of what i think needs to be _ spending commitments, and so much of what i think needs to be achieved - what i think needs to be achieved from _ what i think needs to be achieved from a _ what i think needs to be achieved from a labour— what i think needs to be achieved from a labour government - what i think needs to be achieved from a labour government is- from a labour government is resetting _ from a labour government is resetting public— from a labour government is resetting public services, - from a labour government is| resetting public services, but from a labour government is. resetting public services, but i think— resetting public services, but i think they— resetting public services, but i think they have _ resetting public services, but i think they have to _ resetting public services, but i think they have to find - resetting public services, but i think they have to find just - resetting public services, but i think they have to find just a i resetting public services, but i i think they have to find just a few policy— think they have to find just a few policy ideas _ think they have to find just a few policy ideas that _ think they have to find just a few policy ideas that really— think they have to find just a few - policy ideas that really communicate to the _ policy ideas that really communicate to the public— policy ideas that really communicate to the public what _ policy ideas that really communicate to the public what a _ policy ideas that really communicate to the public what a labour- to the public what a labour government— to the public what a labour government would - to the public what a labour government would be - to the public what a labour. government would be about to the public what a labour- government would be about and why to the public what a labour— government would be about and why it would _ government would be about and why it would be _ government would be about and why it would be different. _ government would be about and why it would be different. iiiili�*hen _ government would be about and why it would be different.— would be different. when is the election going _ would be different. when is the election going to _ would be different. when is the election going to be, _ would be different. when is the election going to be, danny? if| would be different. when is the | election going to be, danny? ifi were election going to be, danny? if i were them i would hold it in the spring. in may, i think there a temptation to keep going, hoping something will turn up, that would turn out to be overwhelming so it'll be in october. i turn out to be overwhelming so it'll be in october-— be in october. i hope they don't hanu on be in october. i hope they don't hang on untiljanuary _ be in october. i hope they don't hang on untiljanuary 2025. i. be in october. i hope they don't i hang on untiljanuary 2025. i would be able _ hang on untiljanuary 2025. i would be able to— hang on untiljanuary 2025. i would be able to stand it. i remember the run up— be able to stand it. i remember the run upto— be able to stand it. i remember the run up to 1997, we had to wait and

wait _ run up to 1997, we had to wait and wait untit— run up to 1997, we had to wait and wait. untilthe run up to 1997, we had to wait and wait. until the last minute. and it