tv Asia Business Report BBC News September 6, 2023 2:30am-2:46am BST
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they haven't had a three—way meeting like this since 2019 and it comes at a challenging time for asia, as china struggles with a slowdown, and relations between beijing and washington remain tense. the global chief economist for s&p global ratings told me the current state of the chinese economy will weigh heavily on export—reliant countries. we think china is going to struggle to make its 5% growth target this year. we have a couple of economies, india and indonesia being the prime ones, that are more domestically driven. we are in a period where rates are high is slowing, so these trade—dependent economies in the region will continue to struggle to put up high trade numbers while the major economies are raising rates, and china is growing below its target. what are some of the complex pressure point that these
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pressure points that these countries will have to navigate? i really think it's a confidence game at this point. we want consumers to continue to spend, we want firms to continue to invest. i think having some confidence that the rate cycle globally is near its peak, the us continues to put up good numbers, china has tweaked some of the measures in the property market. it's certainly not a disastrous story but it will probably in poorly on growth, and countries have to figure out how to navigate that given the particular circumstances. not a terrible scenario but a bit weaker than we are used to in this part of the world, where china was powering the region and everyone else was pulled along. how do you see the challenges in the property sector? it was one of the huge boosters in the chinese economy. the property sector in china is driving between a quarter and a third growth. we know the authorities
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are concerned about excess debt levels. they want the market mechanisms to work. well—performing firms continuing to build houses, that is part of the strategy, but also wanting financial discipline. we have seen the authorities turn the dial a bit in the last week or so, lowering downpayments, loosening up demand, but it's a tricky balancing act. china trying to have the consumer sector leading the growth rebound... that's not a huge part of the chinese economy, only 40% versus 70 in the us. so the consumption—led rebound we have been expecting since late last year has fizzled a bit. so the authorities will struggle to keep growth close to 5%. we expect no fireworks on the policy side, but continued fine tuning to try to support the property market and investment and gdp growth.
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the us continues to surprise. resilience is the story we are using the most. the growth speed limit is just around 2%. the first half of the year was a bit more, so far the third quarter is tracking at an amazing 5.5%. the fed has raised rates by 525 basis points since last march and we are seeing some pressure coming out of the labour market. but a tricky spot now for the us where the economy is almost too resilient, we need to see a little more softness in the labour market and lower inflation. but we think the soft landing is still a plausible baseline. we are looking for the us to slow in the second half of the year, but they are definitely going to post a number above 2% growth this year, which is above potential, and needs to slow down a bit in order to bring inflation under control.
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do you expect interest rates to come down in the nearfuture? i come down in the near future? i think hold the policy rates into 202a. as inflation comes down, what we call the real interest rate, the nominal rate minus inflation, will rise a bit and take a bit of pressure out of the economy. but we consider that rates are going to be at or around these levels until the middle of 202a. once we get decisive evidence that inflation is tracking down and growth is softening, then we are going to get to the phase where central banks move back towards their long—term rate, 2.5 or three in the case of the fed. but in the next three months not much movement in policy rates for the us. in taiwan, one of the biggest events for the semiconductor industry has kicked off. top industry executives, including the chairman of taiwan semiconductor manufacturing company, are scheduled to speak today.
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it's at the centre of the trade row between the two largest economies, the us and china. the uk—based chip designer arm hopes to sell shares it hopes to clinch a market value of more than $50 billion. it is expected to be the biggest offering of the year and is seen as a test of market confidence. arm said it has already lined up some big—name lined up some big—name customers, including apple, google and nvidia, as investors. shared are expected to start trading in the us next week. in australia, workers at two major liquefied natural gas facilities will go on strike on thursday, the strike fears have pushed up wholesale gas prices in europe. australia is one of the world's biggest exporters of liquefied natural gas, or lng. it supplies much of asia, but industrial action has the potential to destabilise the international
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energy market. when countries in asia, such as china, japan and south korea, can't get enough lng from australia, they will start looking elsewhere, fuelling competition for resources. this could end up diverting supplies away from europe. it has become more dependent on global lng supplies since russia curbed its exports of natural gas to european neighbours, because of the war in ukraine. the two sites in western australia produce of the world's lng and they are owned by chevron, the us energy giant. workers are unhappy about pay, job security and training standards. trade unions say industrial action could cost the company billions of dollars. chevron is insisting that
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it's doing all it can to ensure its lng operations continue safely and reliably. experts don't think any industrial action in western australia will have a major impact on global gas prices, but, and there is a but, that could change if industrial stoppages dragged on. that explains why there is a certain amount of anxiety a in the international energy market. india's auto industry has seen sustained growth in august with sales recovering back to pre—pandemic levels as per dealership data. but an erratic monsoon has emerged as a big concern for the industry. our india business correspondent with more details from mumbai. for the month of august, good sales across categories from two wheelers and passenger
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vehicles to tractors. but a push for electric rickshaws and easy finance has helped three wheeler sales in particular to grow by 66%. inventory levels for passenger vehicles have also hit an all—time high, reflecting optimism that dealers have about the impending festive season that lasts between august and november. but despite the recovery, there are clouds of worry emerging in india's auto landscape. a monsoon could impact demand which would impact on sales of tractors as well as entry level two wheelers and passenger vehicles, according to analysts. tractor sales have already shown weaker growth. the hope is the monsoons pick up pace so that weak rural demand doesn't coincide with the peak of the festive season when traditionally consumers open up their wallets and spend on big ticket items
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like automobiles. social media platform tiktok says it has opened a data centre in ireland, its first in europe. it has begun to migrate european user data there as part of its ongoing response to data privacy concerns around its links to china. the platform, owned by a chinese company bytedance, has repeatedly denied links to beijing. new york city officials have introduced a legislation which in effect bans holiday rentals lasting less than 30 days. it's an attempt to ensure affordable housing is affordable to new york resident and to curb anti—social behaviour. visitors can now only hire homes from platforms like airbnb for a maximum of two guests and the host must live there and be present during the stay. china's biggest property developer has managed to make debt interest payments which were due a month ago. failure by country garden
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to payjust over $20 billion in august raised fears the firm was heading towards a default. that's it for this edition of asia business report. thanks very much for watching. bbc news, bringing you different stories from across the uk. this is the village of butterton, near leek in staffordshire. they take the tradition of a scarecrow competition to a whole new level. so our festival that's been going on for hundreds of years is to celebrate, normally, the end of the holidays for what was our traditional copper mines within the area. we felt a scarecrow festival fitted in really nicely. it's been running for three years now. to be fair, we've had a really, really good number of scarecrows. it's probably got a little bit more competitive every year. this scarecrow was the design of my five—year—old little girl. it is "row, row, row your boat, and if you see a crocodile, don't forget to scream."
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the theme of the competition is voted on by residents of the village in a facebook poll. however, they have been a bit loose with the definition of a nursery rhyme. i think it's taken very seriously with a pinch of salt, to be fair! we have a lot of fun with it. it's just about trying to bring people together, give the kids something to enjoy. just generally bring everyone together, raise some money, make a bit of a community feel. i've been particularly taken with humpty dumpty, who is sitting just on the wall, because he actually has all the king's horses and all the king's men hidden in the wall. i drove past about five times before i noticed them, so it was good to discover them hidden away! for more stories from across the uk, head to the bbc news website. hey, i'm steven with the catch—up. we're starting new laws on laughing gas, because the government says it's going to become illegal
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by the end of the year. the drug is really popular, but using it a lot can be bad for your health and make you feel anxious. ministers hope a crackdown will help to tackle anti—social behaviour. but health experts are worried a ban means users won't get help and a government review says the gas should not be banned. so what would these new rules be, then? well, if you're caught with laughing gas, you could face up to two years in prison or a hefty fine. supplying it could land you a sentence of up to 14 years. some other stories now. he won the women's world cup with them two weeks ago but now spain's manager has been sacked. jorge vilda is seen as an ally of the spanish fa boss luis rubiales, who has refused to resign after kissing a player on the lips after the final. sticking with the football, jordan henderson's defending his move to a club in saudi arabia. it's illegal to be gay there and the former liverpool captain's been criticised by lgbtq+ groups. he says it was never his intention to hurt anyone.
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and is this a bit of you? love island all—stars is coming. itv has confirmed it will air early next year but no word yet on which ex—islanders are taking part. and we're going to leave you with ten seconds of a baby monkey. take a look at citrus, the newest arrival at whipsnade zoo in bedfordshire. he's a francois' langur, an endangered species. how cute is that? you're all caught up, have a great night. hello, welcome along to sportsday. coming up on the programme, spain's world cup—winning coach jorge vilda is sacked
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amid the ongoing scandal involving football federation president luis rubiales. former liverpool midfielder jordan henderson says he was really hurt by criticism of his saudi arabia transfer. and in new york, novak djokovic makes yet more history, making it through to a record 47th grand slam semi—final. you are very welcome along to sportsday. lovely to have you with us. let's start, then, with the latest development in the ongoing saga in spanish football. world cup—winning coach jorge vilda has been sacked by the country's football federation. it comes amid the scandal involving federation president luis rubiales,
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who was widely criticised for his behaviour after the final. vilda was a key supporter of rubiales, and his own coaching methods were also reported to have been a key factor in 15 players refusing to play for the national side last year. montse tome now becomes the first woman to be appointed as coach for the national team. she will take charge of their upcoming games against sweden and switzerland. she had been part of vilda's coaching staff, most of whom resigned, along with 81 players who have refused to play for spain until rubiales resigns. spanish football journalist bea redondo believes that vilda's sacking was inevitable. following the events that happened after the world cup, he was one of those that were signalled as supporting rubiales' action, but also kind of been playing an active role in trying to contain jenni hermoso from speaking up, also trying to kind of force herfamily into kind
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