sunshine and showers, still very windy in parts of northern scotland, 14. in windy in parts of northern scotland, 1a. in a way, 23 or 2a in eastern and south—eastern england, warmer than today. into friday the band of rain will be moving northwards again, it will bring some really wet weather on friday across parts of northern ireland, southern and central portions of scotland and if he was struck under the clouds, look at the temperatures, glasgow and belfast just 13 at the temperatures, glasgow and belfastjust13 degrees, but further south and east, london getting up to 25. big temperature contrasts. towards the weekend, quite a mixed and messy weather picture, low pressure trying to swell in from the south—west, throwing showers or longer spells of rain northwards but relatively warm and humid air. not as warm as it was for some last weekend but it could be 26 or 27 in

the south—east on saturday, expect widespread showers and thunderstorms by sunday so lots of different weather over the next few days. thanks, ben. and that's bbc news at ten. newsnight with kirsty wark which is just getting under way on bbc two. now it's time to join our colleagues across the nations and regions for the news where you are, but from the ten team it's goodnight.

more than 5,000 dead and many more missing as whole neighbourhoods in the city of derna are swept into the sea. what chance has libya got when the country is in chaos and there is no disaster plan? libya was in no

state to cope with such a catastrophic event, but do we bear some responsibility? we'll be hearing from the executive director of international rescue committee uk and a former british ambassador to libya. also tonight. over the past 18 months, newsnight�*s nhs investigations unit has uncovered myriad problems in nhs england. if i watched this in a tv drama, i wouldn't believe it could happen in real life. i knew i needed to get justice for my children. so, how would a labour government improve the picture across the service? we'll be speaking to labour's shadow health secretary wes streeting. the government lost two critical votes tonight on their plans for levelling up and we'll have the latest political development on hs2. and next week the bank of england has to decide whether or not to raise interest rates. they'll use data — but does it always tell the true story? ben will be here with his global tracker. good evening.

the roots of libya's disaster go back more than a decade, and the devastation the country is suffering now is at least fourfold. more than 5,000 are dead, and many more are missing, all in horrifying circumstances in the eastern coastal city of derna. there, storm daniel did its worst, but the two dams that burst were in a state of disrepair, despite recent warnings that work was needed to shore them up. add to that, rescue efforts have been severely hampered by the lack of a national government. rather, libya has an administration in the west, in tripoli, that has international recognition but no sway in the east, which is under the control of the libyan national army, and there was confusion and disagreement about how to respond to the catastrophe. add to that, corruption. here's emir. the dam covered in stone, buckling under the storm pot downpour

triggering a surge of water hitting the abu mansour dam at the gates of the abu mansour dam at the gates of the city. the abu mansour dam at the gates of the ci . ., u, the abu mansour dam at the gates of theci. ., , the city. you can see the cracks with the naked _ the city. you can see the cracks with the naked eye. _ the city. you can see the cracks with the naked eye. it - the city. you can see the cracks with the naked eye. it is - the city. you can see the cracks i with the naked eye. it is estimated as the floodwater _ with the naked eye. it is estimated as the floodwater barrelled - with the naked eye. it is estimated as the floodwater barrelled into . as the floodwater barrelled into derna's homes it carried 30,000 0lympic swimming pools of water along with debris picked up on the way. along with debris picked up on the wa . , . , along with debris picked up on the wa . , , ., ~ along with debris picked up on the wa. , m way. yesterday we were talking about 10,000 missing _ way. yesterday we were talking about 10,000 missing people _ way. yesterday we were talking about 10,000 missing people and _ way. yesterday we were talking about 10,000 missing people and today - way. yesterday we were talking about 10,000 missing people and today thej 10,000 missing people and today the number has reached 19,000 people missing. in number has reached 19,000 people missinu. . ., , number has reached 19,000 people missin.. . missing. in a fractious libya, divided by — missing. in a fractious libya, divided by civil _ missing. in a fractious libya, divided by civil war- missing. in a fractious libya, divided by civil war into - missing. in a fractious libya, divided by civil war into rivalj divided by civil war into rival administrations complaint by corruption, questions have been asked about who bears responsibility. could the tragedy happen averted?— happen averted? even in july i wrote a document — happen averted? even in july i wrote a document regarding _ happen averted? even in july i wrote a document regarding the _ happen averted? even in july i wrote a document regarding the upcoming| a document regarding the upcoming flooding in derna and two, three other places in libya that could cause a lot of casualties. it wasn't only me, there were five or six

researchers who identified problems and mentioned that the dam could collapse in any flood. mil and mentioned that the dam could collapse in any flood.— collapse in any flood. all of the dams were _ collapse in any flood. all of the dams were poorly _ collapse in any flood. all of the dams were poorly maintained l dams were poorly maintained allegedly by the authorities and people were advised to leave before imposing a curfew. did it cross their minds that the dam might break? ., u, , , their minds that the dam might break? ., , , ., break? there were forecasts that there would _ break? there were forecasts that there would be _ break? there were forecasts that there would be extreme - break? there were forecasts that there would be extreme rainfall. break? there were forecasts that l there would be extreme rainfall in libya _ there would be extreme rainfall in libya and — there would be extreme rainfall in libya and indications that this could — libya and indications that this could be _ libya and indications that this could be unprecedented rainfall. unprecedented isn't quite the same as dams— unprecedented isn't quite the same as dams not being designed for that capacity _ as dams not being designed for that ca aci . ~ ., ., as dams not being designed for that caaci . ., ., , capacity. more often, more intense. with each extreme _ capacity. more often, more intense. with each extreme weather - capacity. more often, more intense. with each extreme weather event i capacity. more often, more intense. | with each extreme weather event we now know that climate change is no longerjust now know that climate change is no longer just a now know that climate change is no longerjust a problem for future generations and it is exposing the modest expectations of the civil engineers of the past. we really need to take — engineers of the past. we really need to take into _ engineers of the past. we really need to take into account - engineers of the past. we really need to take into account the i engineers of the past. we really. need to take into account the low probability but high—impact situations and that's very difficult

to estimate. we don't necessarily know_ to estimate. we don't necessarily know what — to estimate. we don't necessarily know what climate change is doing, to the _ know what climate change is doing, to the extreme end of the spectrum. these _ to the extreme end of the spectrum. these extreme events are multiplying the weaknesses of infrastructure and administration in the global south, so who showed the blame?- administration in the global south, so who showed the blame? people next to the measuring _ so who showed the blame? people next to the measuring devices, _ so who showed the blame? people next to the measuring devices, they - so who showed the blame? people next to the measuring devices, they told - to the measuring devices, they told me it was 440 millimetres in one day. a tripling of the record of a day. a tripling of the record of a day off storm that ever happened in libya. that's why... maintenance is it enough but if we did it, the dam would not be able to protect the city. it is a huge amount of water. for us to understand these dangers in the future it isn'tjust a question of the weather forecast but of local infrastructure, local

politics too.— of local infrastructure, local oliticstoo. ., , ., politics too. not 'ust taking into account what — politics too. not just taking into account what the _ politics too. not just taking into account what the cloud - politics too. not just taking into account what the cloud is - politics too. not just taking into i account what the cloud is throwing at us _ account what the cloud is throwing at us in _ account what the cloud is throwing at us in terms of the hazard but also _ at us in terms of the hazard but also what — at us in terms of the hazard but also what the resilience is of infrastructure and communities, the exposure _ infrastructure and communities, the exposure of— infrastructure and communities, the exposure of where people are living. from _ exposure of where people are living. from that _ exposure of where people are living. from that we can understand what the risks might _ from that we can understand what the risks might be. the from that we can understand what the risks might be— risks might be. the global south is at the shou — risks might be. the global south is at the shou and — risks might be. the global south is at the shop and of _ risks might be. the global south is at the shop and of the _ risks might be. the global south is at the shop and of the climate - at the shop and of the climate crisis and so is this urban fabric. barely comprehensible, the tragedy in libya shows that the established rules of what has come before is a fallacy that no longer fit for the future. with us to discuss are laura kyrke—smith, the executive director of international rescue committee uk and peter millett, british diplomat who was ambassador to libya between 2015 and 2018. laura, can you give a sense of how chaotic and piecemeal the relief effort is? this chaotic and piecemeal the relief effort is? �* ,

chaotic and piecemeal the relief effort is? ~ , chaotic and piecemeal the relief effort is? a effort is? as your report has highlighted _ effort is? as your report has highlighted that _ effort is? as your report has highlighted that our - effort is? as your report has l highlighted that our desperate levels of humanitarian need around derna but also around other affected communities. you've talked about the figures, at least 5000 people have been killed already and the number will continue to grow. we are counting 34,000 people who have been displaced from their homes, they've lost their homes and everything, they are in dire need of emergency shelter. physical access has been tricky, the roads to the east and west of the city have been destroyed and some aid is able to get through on another road but the infrastructure of the city has been destroyed in the city itself, the bridges across the river are destroyed and phones are no longer working so it was a very difficult context and we are onlyjust beginning to understand the scale of the devastation.— the devastation. there wasn't a disaster plan. _ the devastation. there wasn't a disaster plan, which _ the devastation. there wasn't a disaster plan, which is - the devastation. there wasn't a disaster plan, which is part - the devastation. there wasn't a disaster plan, which is part of l the devastation. there wasn't a l disaster plan, which is part of the

problem, a disagreement about the aid and who should get it. my understanding is that western countries aren't really in yet. it is really down to the surrounding countries. ., ., , is really down to the surrounding countries. . ., , . countries. so, authorities have asked for— countries. so, authorities have asked for international - countries. so, authorities have i asked for international assistance which is the right starting point. the un, ngos like the international rescue committee can send people in. it is predominantly libyans who are leading those efforts. we aren't trying to get people from outside but we are finding that libyans are able to get there and start providing relief. aha, able to get there and start providing relief.— able to get there and start providing relief. a broader view from ou providing relief. a broader view from you because _ providing relief. a broader view from you because you - providing relief. a broader view from you because you were - providing relief. a broader view i from you because you were there providing relief. a broader view - from you because you were there for a long time. this was bound to be a chaotic mission, wasn't it, to try and recover? i chaotic mission, wasn't it, to try and recover?— chaotic mission, wasn't it, to try and recover? i think so. since the revolution — and recover? i think so. since the revolution there's _ and recover? i think so. since the revolution there's been _ and recover? i think so. since the revolution there's been a - and recover? i think so. since the revolution there's been a lack - and recover? i think so. since the revolution there's been a lack of i revolution there's been a lack of building — revolution there's been a lack of building of institutions, a lack of infrastructure, investment in any part of—

infrastructure, investment in any part of the — infrastructure, investment in any part of the society. and a lack of civil society, a lack of ability of ordinary— civil society, a lack of ability of ordinary libyans to get together and express— ordinary libyans to get together and express their views. were ordinary libyans to get together and express their views.— ordinary libyans to get together and express their views. were the seeds of this sony — express their views. were the seeds of this sony decade _ express their views. were the seeds of this sony decade ago _ express their views. were the seeds of this sony decade ago as - express their views. were the seeds of this sony decade ago as far- express their views. were the seeds of this sony decade ago as far as - express their views. were the seeds of this sony decade ago as far as we j of this sony decade ago as far as we are concerned? i of this sony decade ago as far as we are concerned?— are concerned? i think after the revolution. _ are concerned? i think after the revolution, we _ are concerned? i think after the revolution, we were _ are concerned? i think after the revolution, we were there, - are concerned? i think after the revolution, we were there, the | revolution, we were there, the international community was there but there _ international community was there but there was a lack of a clear view of what _ but there was a lack of a clear view of what had — but there was a lack of a clear view of what had to be done and central organisation and planning. the united — organisation and planning. the united nations has worked hard, there _ united nations has worked hard, there have been numerous special envoys _ there have been numerous special envoys over time. there was a political— envoys over time. there was a political agreement reached in december of 2015 but it never really brought _ december of 2015 but it never really brought the country together at the political— brought the country together at the political level. what we are seeing now with _ political level. what we are seeing now with the crisis is the libyan people — now with the crisis is the libyan people coming together, reconciliation and solidarity among the mayan— reconciliation and solidarity among the libyan people. but the political class, _ the libyan people. but the political class, still— the libyan people. but the political class, still failing to work together. i said at the beginning, do we _ together. i said at the beginning, do we bear— together. i said at the beginning, do we bear responsibility because david cameron set up what was called the national security council, a cabinet committee, and the first

thing they looked at was libya and they made a misguided decision. well, i wasn't part of the system, i wasn't _ well, i wasn't part of the system, i wasn't dealing with libya at the time _ wasn't dealing with libya at the time but — wasn't dealing with libya at the time but i — wasn't dealing with libya at the time but i know there were efforts then to _ time but i know there were efforts then to build security, to build... but they— then to build security, to build... but they intervened, with the french come in a misguided fashion which essentially shored up one side and let the other side one a mock. libyans said they want no boots on the ground — libyans said they want no boots on the ground. some of the lessons from iraqi the ground. some of the lessons from lraqi meant _ the ground. some of the lessons from iraqi meant that they didn't want a foreign _ iraqi meant that they didn't want a foreign administration or foreign troops _ foreign administration or foreign troops on — foreign administration or foreign troops on the ground. the libyans are saving. — troops on the ground. the libyans are saying, we can do this ourselves. are saying, we can do this ourselves-— are saying, we can do this ourselves. ., . ourselves. then we find out that they can't _ ourselves. then we find out that they can't do _ ourselves. then we find out that they can't do it. _ ourselves. then we find out that they can't do it. exactly. - they can't do it. exactly. insurgents _ they can't do it. exactly. insurgents and - they can't do it. exactly. i insurgents and corruptions they can't do it. exactly. - insurgents and corruptions and russians are in as well. molar insurgents and corruptions and russians are in as well. now you have russian _ russians are in as well. now you have russian mercenaries - russians are in as well. now you i have russian mercenaries working with one _ have russian mercenaries working with one side, within 300 miles of the southern flank of nato, you have migration— the southern flank of nato, you have migration routes, a petri dish of terrorism — migration routes, a petri dish of terrorism. it's a very dangerous area _ terrorism. it's a very dangerous area anyway, despite all these

crises — area anyway, despite all these crises. stability would bring the ability— crises. stability would bring the ability of— crises. stability would bring the ability of a government to do the economic— ability of a government to do the economic reform, to enable the country— economic reform, to enable the country to— economic reform, to enable the country to be rebuilt for its citizens _ country to be rebuilt for its citizens. ~ country to be rebuilt for its citizens-— country to be rebuilt for its citizens. ~ . . , ., . citizens. when, laura, you look at the scale of _ citizens. when, laura, you look at the scale of the _ citizens. when, laura, you look at the scale of the devastation, - citizens. when, laura, you look at the scale of the devastation, whatj the scale of the devastation, what is the long—term plan as far as your organisation is concerned, after the immediate questions of getting food and shelter to people?— and shelter to people? yeah, so, riaht now and shelter to people? yeah, so, right now the _ and shelter to people? yeah, so, right now the priority _ and shelter to people? yeah, so, right now the priority is _ and shelter to people? yeah, so, right now the priority is getting i right now the priority is getting the basics to people and we are particularly worried actually about the lack of freshwater. it is a problem in these crises, the spread of waterborne diseases. we think health problems will continue to grow but we think it would be a long—term effort to rebuild homes and lives within that. unfortunately this is part of a pattern we're seeing and fragile and conflict affected states like libya, these

climate induced extreme weather events really strike badly and communities are very ill—equipped to handle them and manage what is always a long recovery process. in always a long recovery process. in terms of financial aid to help recover, who is going to help libya? i don't think libya needs financial aid. idon't think libya needs financial aid they— i don't think libya needs financial aid. they have the largest oil reserves _ aid. they have the largest oil reserves in africa, large amounts of money— reserves in africa, large amounts of money coming into the central banks. but responsibility, who will administer it? it but responsibility, who will administer it?— but responsibility, who will administer it? , ., ., , administer it? it is how the money is auoin administer it? it is how the money is going to — administer it? it is how the money is going to be _ administer it? it is how the money is going to be spent. _ administer it? it is how the money is going to be spent. at _ administer it? it is how the money is going to be spent. at the - is going to be spent. at the moment large _ is going to be spent. at the moment large amounts are spent on salaries and subsidies. there's been a lack of investment in infrastructure or any development projects over the last ten— any development projects over the last ten years. any development pro'ects over the last ten years._ any development pro'ects over the last ten years. you've talked about the lib an last ten years. you've talked about the libyan people _ last ten years. you've talked about the libyan people coming - last ten years. you've talked about| the libyan people coming together, the libyan people coming together, the political classes. is there somebody who can broker some kind of a new deal? the somebody who can broker some kind of a new deal? . ., , a new deal? the united nations. the un secial a new deal? the united nations. the un special envoy _ a new deal? the united nations. the un special envoy who _ a new deal? the united nations. the un special envoy who is _ a new deal? the united nations. the un special envoy who is there, - a new deal? the united nations. the un special envoy who is there, he i un special envoy who is there, he has met— un special envoy who is there, he has met all— un special envoy who is there, he has met all of the people, he's

trying — has met all of the people, he's trying to— has met all of the people, he's trying to bring a political solution. he can play that role of the coordinator. the un as a whole should _ the coordinator. the un as a whole should he _ the coordinator. the un as a whole should be coordinating in the absence _ should be coordinating in the absence of local authorities doing it all of— absence of local authorities doing it all of the international efforts, being _ it all of the international efforts, being channelled through the un. also through the red cross and red crescent _ also through the red cross and red crescent because they are there on the ground — crescent because they are there on the ground. but crescent because they are there on the ground-— the ground. but who builds a civil socie ? the ground. but who builds a civil society? in _ the ground. but who builds a civil society? in a _ the ground. but who builds a civil society? in a way, _ the ground. but who builds a civil society? in a way, with _ the ground. but who builds a civil society? in a way, with labour. the ground. but who builds a civil| society? in a way, with labour off our radarfor society? in a way, with labour off our radar for too long and we were ignoring what was happening —— with libya off our radar. irate ignoring what was happening -- with libya off our radar.— libya off our radar. we have an ambassador. _ libya off our radar. we have an ambassador. building - libya off our radar. we have an ambassador. building conflict l ambassador. building conflict resolution, peace building, it can only be— resolution, peace building, it can only be built from the bottom up, not the _ only be built from the bottom up, not the top down.— not the top down. thank you both very much- _ the government lost two votes in the house of lords tonight after it had tried to dilute anti—water pollution rules with an amendment to the levelling up bill which would ditch the eu era "nutrient neutrality rule". the government had claimed that it could result in an additional 100,000 new homes a year by the end

of the decade, with a negligible environmental impact. labour had backed the move until lisa nandy was reshuffled out of the job as shadow levelling up secretary last week. her successor angela rayner took the opposite view and tonight the amendment lost and parliamentary procedure rules mean it cannot be reinstated by in the commons. nick's here. what actually went on in the lords? there was two votes. the first was a so—called henry the eighth powers to allow the government to introduce the changes without primary legislation. it is a thing called statutory instruments. that was knocked out. the second vote was on the actual policy of relaxing the water pollution rules and that was knocked out. interestingly labour said we understand the need for reform, so we will have our own amendment and they didn't move that amendment, to the government are saying you the labour party are not serious about this and say you're

the party of increasing supply of housing and you had a chance to reform and didn't move it. to which the labour party say, no you're not serious, you could have won the vote and got the votes out and you didn't and got the votes out and you didn't and why? because you're playing games, you want to just embarrass us and make the debate a division between builders and blockers. but this now has gone, the government reform, the labour possible idea, they're not there and the government has to think, is there a mechanism to introduce it in legislation before the general election. 50 to introduce it in legislation before the general election. so the next move was _ before the general election. so the next move was on _ before the general election. so the next move was on h52 _ before the general election. so the next move was on h52 and - before the general election. so the| next move was on h52 and political next move was on hs2 and political developments within the government? yes there is a story the independent saying rishi sunak and jeremy hunt are in talks to stop phase 2 of the h52 are in talks to stop phase 2 of the hs2 from birmingham to manchester. i

have to say the government are pushing back on this. they're saying there was a meeting today between there was a meeting today between the prime minister and jeremy hunt about this, that is what you do before a spending review, you look, are we right to spend this, but they point tojohn glenn the chief secretary to the treasury who said the government is committed to this second leg. but what we can take from this is the government is looking carefully at big spending pledges and it is interesting the language is cautious, pushing back, the spades are in the ground. but not this is rubbish, we are committed to every single inch of h52. committed to every single inch of hs2. so there will be a suspicion that at the least these projects are being looked at carefully. that at the least these pro'ects are being looked at carefully._ being looked at carefully. thank ou. the prime minister and the health secretary met senior nhs leaders today to discuss

what the nhs in england needs to get it throught the winter, against a backdrop of record waiting lists, continuing strikes, and long waits for emergency care. the nhs will be one of the key battlegrounds in the upcoming general election, and over the past 18 months newsnight�*s nhs investigations unit has produced exclusive films dealing with issues such as staff shortages and retention, doctors and nurses in particular, the treatment of whistle—blowers, management shortcomings, and failures of care, in ambulance services, including north east ambbulance, including north east abbulance, in ambulance services, including north east ambulance, and gp practices in england. in a moment, we'll be speaking to wes streeting, labour's shadow secretary of state for health and social care, who has already signed a labour government up to a number of nhs england reforms — including economic sanctions for poorly performing gps surgeries and the overhaul of regulation of nhs managers, but first, earlier this evening the endeavours of newsnight�*s nhs investigations unit were recognised at the medicaljournalists association awards.

here's david grossman with some of the journalism that won them the award. if there is a single theme to our 18—month—long investigation into nhs failures, it is that when patients are harmed, all too often, managers attempt to protect the reputation of their organisations. these sorts of malmanagement things in the national health service, and particularly this hospital, have to be highlighted because if senior management can't run a hospital properly and don't want to listen to feedback, criticism about patient safety issues, then who suffers in the end? it's the patients. that patient suffering — like long waits for and long waits in ambulances — is sometimes secondary to making the figures look good... i've had nurses say to me, senior sisters say to me, "if we let you go, you'lljust bring us more."

"why do you bring us patients?" well, we bring you patients because we're an ambulance service and you're a hospital. i would be wrong to say that there are times when i haven't shed a tear for people we haven't been able to help — because it's been too late. if i'd watched this in a tv drama, i wouldn't have believed it- could happen in real life. i knew ijust needed to get justice for my children, - and i feel as though we're starting to get that — ..that mistakes are denied and denied until they cannot be ignored any longer, but only the most tenacious get answers... the fact we got no recognition from the practice until literally this week made me feel that if there was no apology, there was no recognition, therefore there would never be any change. and, repeatedly, we heard from doctors and nurses who tried to raise the alarm, only to find themselves targeted and, in some cases,

referred for investigation to their professional regulators. there's no accountability when it comes to decision—making at the top. for those that get it drastically wrong and that's uncovered, usually they move on to bigger and better things. but doctors and nurses, we sit under a regulatory body, we have someone to answer to, whereas managers have nobody to answer to. and they protect each other. while some managers who are criticised escape accountability. why did this organisation put out a press release on the 22nd of november saying that he was leaving the trust and that it was a sad loss to the trust when he's never left the trust, he's still employed by the trust? he's left... he's left his role as chief executive. sure, but he hasn't left the trust, has he? he's gone on secondment to work for the integrated care... but you're still paying his salary, aren't you? the nhs is responsible for... but it's coming out of your budget, at this hospital. but the government seems to be moving towards a register of senior nhs managers, meaning the incompetent or

the negligent could be struck off. but our investigation suggests that the problems of nhs leadership go far deeper and far wider. i'm joined now by the shadow health secretary, wes streeting. thank you forjoining us. first of all, among the series of films we have made, we have demonstrated a failure of nhs england to hold management to account for their failings. you know we heard that line, managers have no one to answer to. why has it taken to lucy letby�*s conviction for politicians to focus on the problems of management? we have on the problems of management? - have had a series of review, sir robert francis and the clarke review, the messenger review. you backed the — review, the messenger review. you backed the robert francis, the fit and proper person?—

backed the robert francis, the fit and proper person? yes, we backed the recommendations, _ and proper person? yes, we backed the recommendations, but- and proper person? yes, we backed the recommendations, but not - and proper person? yes, we backed the recommendations, but not all. and proper person? yes, we backed i the recommendations, but not all the recommendations have been followed and in particular when it comes to the regulation of senior managers in the regulation of senior managers in the nhs. the government hasn't gone as far as they ought to and one of the things i have said to the health secretary, steve barkley, on patient safety issues and in the light of the most grotesque tragedy of what happened with lucy letby and her heinous crimes, we want want to use as a political football. heinous crimes, we want want to use as a politicalfootball. i have said if he goes ahead with the recommendations of the the clarke review, and the full implementation of the other recommendations, he will have our full support. if the government does n't act before the general election, we will act, because one thing i find infuriating

is this incompetence that has allowed crimes to go undiscovered. if the recommendations are published in full, you will go along with that, as far as the government is concerned f a labour government gets in, how quickly will you institute every recommendation? i in, how quickly will you institute every recommendation?- in, how quickly will you institute every recommendation? i think this has not to every recommendation? i think this has got to be _ every recommendation? i think this has got to be a _ every recommendation? i think this has got to be a first _ every recommendation? i think this has got to be a first order— has got to be a first order priority. has got to be a first order priority-— has got to be a first order. priority._ that has got to be a first order- priority._ that is why i priority. immediately? that is why i have liven priority. immediately? that is why i have given the _ priority. immediately? that is why i have given the government - priority. immediately? that is why i have given the government support priority. immediately? that is why i i have given the government support to say if you bring forward the measures before an election we will work with you. one thing i will say, recommendations and regulation is one thing, the caveat i would add in addition to the disbarring of senior managers in cases of misconduct, thatis managers in cases of misconduct, that is part of the answer, there is a deeper challenge on culture and thatis a deeper challenge on culture and that is a much harder nut to crack and it is partly about penalties, but it is also about good culture through training and support. this

but it is also about good culture through training and support. as you sa , the through training and support. as you say, the regulation _ through training and support. as you say, the regulation is _ through training and support. as you say, the regulation is there - through training and support. as you say, the regulation is there to - through training and support. as you say, the regulation is there to be - say, the regulation is there to be enacted in full. if you win the election and come in, will you enact that immediately and i do mean within the first six months? i that immediately and i do mean within the first six months? i would ho -e so within the first six months? i would hope so we — within the first six months? i would hope so we have — within the first six months? i would hope so we have to _ within the first six months? i would hope so we have to negotiate - within the first six months? i would hope so we have to negotiate on i within the first six months? i would | hope so we have to negotiate on the legislative programme, that would be my undertaking. because it is such a crucial priority. actually it is one of the reasons why we have started now to consult with nhs leaders and the wider workforce about getting the wider workforce about getting the regulation right i want to be ready to hit the ground running. fine ready to hit the ground running. one ofthe ready to hit the ground running. one of the problems with this, is that whistle—blowers don't seem safe to fit out. will that policy be cast iron? , . . fit out. will that policy be cast iron? , ., ., ., ," iron? yes, what we are asking questions _ iron? yes, what we are asking questions on _ iron? yes, what we are asking questions on is _ iron? yes, what we are asking questions on is why _ iron? yes, what we are asking questions on is why is - iron? yes, what we are asking questions on is why is it - iron? yes, what we are asking questions on is why is it the i iron? yes, what we are asking i questions on is why is it the duty of candour isn't working? that is

why i come back to the point about culture, as it stand there is is meant to be a duty of candour. 0ne... meant to be a duty of candour. one... ~ ., meant to be a duty of candour. i 0ne- - -_ by meant to be a duty of candour. one... ~ ., b the one... we saw on monday... by the wa , i one... we saw on monday... by the way. i take — one... we saw on monday... by the way. i take my _ one. .. we saw on monday... by the way. i take my hat— one... we saw on monday... by the way, i take my hat off _ one... we saw on monday... by the way, i take my hat off to _ one... we saw on monday... by the way, i take my hat off to newsnight| way, i take my hat off to newsnight journalism, thank goodness you have shone the light you have. but when i spoke to someone senior in the nhs last week about the letby case i was told, we have the fit and proper persons test and we have a standardised form for references, but this is why culture is crucial. my but this is why culture is crucial. my challenge was you think the answer is a form, i'm telling you the problem is culture, where poor performance is tolerated and safety isn't a priority. performance is tolerated and safety isn't a priority-— isn't a priority. 15,000 more medical places _ isn't a priority. 15,000 more medical places you're - isn't a priority. 15,000 more - medical places you're promising, 5,000 health visitors,10,000 clinical placements, it was going to be paid for by the 45 pence

additional rate. now you are rolling in the abolition of non—dom status. that won't touch the sides. in in the abolition of non-dom status. that won't touch the sides. in terms of doubling — that won't touch the sides. in terms of doubling of— that won't touch the sides. in terms of doubling of medical _ that won't touch the sides. in terms of doubling of medical school - that won't touch the sides. in terms of doubling of medical school places and the workforce commitments, the government have adopted labour's workforce plan and they're funding it in a different way. but i can tell you, we have been clear that every one of our policies is costed and funded and our workforce package was 1. 6 billion. that is half o' of what would be gained by abolishing the non—dom status. we are not saying yes to every question put to us, every policy will be costed and funded. the reason... you us, every policy will be costed and funded. the reason. . .— us, every policy will be costed and funded. the reason... you can cost and fund it — funded. the reason... you can cost and fund it and _ funded. the reason... you can cost and fund it and find _ funded. the reason... you can cost and fund it and find places - funded. the reason... you can cost and fund it and find places for - and fund it and find places for 15,000 more doctors, but you can't

stop them going to australia, you have a retention problem. how are you going to make sure we are not going to lose our doctors as soon as they're qualified the going to lose our doctors as soon as they're qualified— they're qualified the biggest thing that could be _ they're qualified the biggest thing that could be done _ they're qualified the biggest thing that could be done to _ they're qualified the biggest thing that could be done to improve - that could be done to improve retention would be for rishi sunak and steve barkley to pull their fingers out get the doctors around and end the strike. i'm terrified about what might happen with doctors striking. you about what might happen with doctors strikinu. ., ., ~' about what might happen with doctors strikinu. ., . ,, . about what might happen with doctors strikin.. ., ., ~' ., , ~' , striking. you talk about strikes... the real risk _ striking. you talk about strikes... the real risk is _ striking. you talk about strikes... the real risk is they _ striking. you talk about strikes... the real risk is they walk - striking. you talk about strikes... the real risk is they walk out - striking. you talk about strikes... the real risk is they walk out of i the real risk is they walk out of nhs and notjust for strikes. nhs and not 'ust for strikes. there isn't a nhs and not 'ust for strikes. there isnt a magic— nhs and notjust for strikes. there isn't a magic money _ nhs and notjust for strikes. there isn't a magic money tree. - nhs and notjust for strikes. there isn't a magic money tree. a - nhs and notjust for strikes. there | isn't a magic money tree. a million -ounds isn't a magic money tree. a million pounds has — isn't a magic money tree. a million pounds has been _ isn't a magic money tree. a million pounds has been spent _ isn't a magic money tree. a million pounds has been spent on - isn't a magic money tree. a million pounds has been spent on the - isn't a magic money tree. a million | pounds has been spent on the costs of staffing the strikes, a billion pounds. of staffing the strikes, a billion ounds. �* . , ., pounds. the fire brigades union said as we prepare _ pounds. the fire brigades union said as we prepare for— pounds. the fire brigades union said as we prepare for a _ pounds. the fire brigades union said as we prepare for a change _ pounds. the fire brigades union said as we prepare for a change of- as we prepare for a change of government, austerity wearing a different colour is still austerity and if they fail workers they will

face a determined trade union movement. angela rayner said there will be more power under a labour government to striking workers. do you agree with more power? i government to striking workers. do you agree with more power? i agree with better employment _ you agree with more power? i agree with better employment rights. - you agree with more power? i agree with better employment rights. but| with better employment rights. but more power. with better employment rights. but more power- i— with better employment rights. but more power. i agree _ with better employment rights. but more power. i agree with _ with better employment rights. but more power. i agree with better i more power. i agree with better employment — more power. i agree with better employment right. _ more power. i agree with better employment right. more - more power. i agree with better employment right. more power| more power. i agree with better i employment right. more power for strikin: employment right. more power for striking workers? _ employment right. more power for striking workers? we _ employment right. more power for striking workers? we don't - employment right. more power for striking workers? we don't want i employment right. more power for. striking workers? we don't want more strikes. striking workers? we don't want more strikes- under — striking workers? we don't want more strikes. under the _ striking workers? we don't want more strikes. under the last _ striking workers? we don't want more strikes. under the last labour- strikes. under the last labour government, there were no national strikes, because we got the economy going and were able to invest in delivering shorter waiting times. what do you do your night workers, workers out tonight, unite saying 5% is no rise and it is actually a real terms cut. are they right, is 5% acceptable to some workers and not others. what happens if they hold you to ransom? irate others. what happens if they hold you to ransom?— others. what happens if they hold

you to ransom? we will do what the last labour— you to ransom? we will do what the last labour government _ you to ransom? we will do what the last labour government did - you to ransom? we will do what the last labour government did and i you to ransom? we will do what the i last labour government did and treat people with respect and i come back to the price of failure, the doctors' strikes have cost the natures government more than a billion pounds. why rishi sunak is doing a photo op, instead of getting doctors around the table to negotiate and end the strikes is a question for him. pare negotiate and end the strikes is a question for him.— negotiate and end the strikes is a question for him. are they right to be out, question for him. are they right to be out. other— question for him. are they right to be out, other unions _ question for him. are they right to be out, other unions accepted i question for him. are they right to be out, other unions accepted 5%, they don't accept 5% they say it is a pay cut, unite right to be out? they are right to say it is a cut. it is a question for unite members, other unions have settled. it is it is a question for unite members, other unions have settled.- other unions have settled. it is ok in opposition. _ other unions have settled. it is ok in opposition. in — other unions have settled. it is ok in opposition, in government i other unions have settled. it is ok in opposition, in government you| in opposition, in government you will have to say whether they're right to be out or not. i will have to say whether they're right to be out or not.— will have to say whether they're right to be out or not. i don't want to be people _ right to be out or not. i don't want to be people out _ right to be out or not. i don't want to be people out on _ right to be out or not. i don't want to be people out on strike. - right to be out or not. i don't want to be people out on strike. i i right to be out or not. i don't want to be people out on strike. i want| to be people out on strike. i want to be people out on strike. i want to do what the last labour government did and treat people frar

fairly and one thing i would say to the government he is doing a great job of making borisjohnson look on the detail and liz truss look competent compared to his handling of these strikes and a labour government will do a hell of a lot better. we asked the government for an interview this evening and they declined. in a statement they said they have �*always prioritised the nhs and backed it with the funding it needs'. next week, the monetary policy committee of the bank of england will meet and have to take a decision whether or not to raise interest rates again, or whether to stick. the basis for discussion and decision making is data, but how much should we trust the data on a month to month basis — given the recent revisions from the 0ns about our post—pandemic ecomonic performance and the changing view in recent years over where the uk stood in relation to european countries when it came to excess deaths during the pandemic? here's ben with his global tracker. the gdp figures forjuly, released today, were disappointing. they suggest the economy contracted by 0.5% in the month — worse than had been

anticipated by forecasters. rachel reeves, the shadow chancellor called it a "dismal day for growth" and the british economy remains hostage to the conservatives' low growth trap. there's also renewed talk among some analysts of the possibility of the uk going into recession. but we need to be careful about reading too much into one month's figures and creating a narrative around them. the 0.5% contraction followed an estimated expansion of the same amount injune. moreover, now, perhaps more than ever is a time to be cautious about what we can say with any certainty about what is happening to the economy. it was only 12 days ago that the office for national statistics came out with some figures which pretty radically changed our view about how the uk had performed since the pandemic. let's use newsnight�*s global tracker to tell the story. previously, the 0ns had estimated that the uk economy was currently languishing 0.5% below its pre—pandemic peak —

the worst performance in the g7. and this was a figure that was widely repeated — including here on newsnight — in the context of holding government ministers to account for their economic management. but in the wake of those revisions, the 0ns's latest estimates now suggest the uk economy is actually in the middel of the g7 pack in the post—pandemic recovery. but even this we should be cautious about, because most other g7 countries have not yet revised their own figures — this comparative picture could very easily change again. the tough reality is that the pandemic made measuring the economy extremely difficult for statisticians. plus the pandemic�*s legacy impact on things like the labour force, consumer behaviour, savings and inflation has made it extremely difficult to predict where the economy is going. so beware strident narratives — and perhaps have some sympathy for the bank of england next week when it has to decide whether or not to put up interest rates again. there is a very plausible argument

that it should hold off and give the rate hikes already in the system time to take effect. but there's also a plausible argument that inflationary pressure is still too great. 0n the subject of uncertainty and the dangers of narratives, there's another lesson from the pandemic. there were a spate of headlines in 2020 and 2021 suggesting the uk had one of the worst rates of excess deaths of any european economy. as with gdp, that was based on official data from the time, like this from the 0ns from may 2020, suggesting that the uk was being hit harder than pretty much anywhere else in europe. this launched many media and political narratives about the government's handling of the pandemic. these, though, are the latest estimates of excess deaths from the economist over the entire pandemic period. the uk is towards the middle of the pack — with between 356 and 367 deaths per 100,000 — behind the us and italy. the pandemic developed, of course,

but also more data came through of the past which changed the picture. those confidence intervals, by the way, show the uncertainty, even now about the death toll. let's add more countries in — new zealand, australia, sweden, india and china and others. that also changes the picture. and look at the vast confidence intervals for india and china, reflecting the absence of quality local data. crafting trenchant narratives around data is tempting — for politicians and the media — but when that data is provisional or incomplete, which is often the case, it's a temptation we should try to resist. i'm joined now by sir david spiegelhalter, emeritus professor of statistics at univeristy of cambrdge and the economist vicky pryce, who's also on the board of the better statistics committee. david, gdp and access deaths were out of whack with the original data. were you surprised? trio.

out of whack with the original data. were you surprised?— were you surprised? no, not particular- — were you surprised? no, not particular. gdp _ were you surprised? no, not particular. gdp always i were you surprised? no, not i particular. gdp always changes, the uk changes less than most. there's a change of definition, more data arrives compared with earlier estimates and it's a very volatile time around the pandemic as ben explained. in terms of covid deaths i don't think there's anything surprising. i wrote an article in april of 2020 saying it is too soon to make a judgment about a league table of countries in europe. we've known for ages through 0ns stated that in 2020 the uk did very badly compared with others in europe and in 2021 we did very well. we had a fantastic vaccine roll—out and did very well. on average, we have ended up very well. on average, we have ended up about average. i don't think there's anything surprising that's come out recently. what i liked about ben's report is that he emphasises that statistics are not cold, hard, unchanging facts. they're volatile, there's

uncertainty because of limited data. they can be volatile because of changes over time. yes they can be volatile because of changes over time.— they can be volatile because of changes over time. yes but david, durin: the changes over time. yes but david, during the pandemic _ changes over time. yes but david, during the pandemic we _ changes over time. yes but david, during the pandemic we were i changes over time. yes but david, i during the pandemic we were getting statistics everyday of the week. we were almost desperate for statistics and we were being fed them, desperately. was that a big mistake? no, it was absolutely right and i spent a lot of time trying to explain that they are five different definitions of a covid deaths that were being used. it's very confusing but it's real, there's no such thing as a single definition of a covid death. we were using different definitions and so were other countries. it is complex and difficult. during the pandemic the public were extremely willing to take this on board. i think they were very understanding about the complexity of the issues. it was the media who were trying to grossly simplify some of the data.- simplify some of the data. vicki, ou are simplify some of the data. vicki, you are on _ simplify some of the data. vicki,

you are on the — simplify some of the data. vicki, you are on the better— simplify some of the data. vicki, you are on the better statistics i you are on the better statistics committee implying a problem, what is it? we committee implying a problem, what is it? ~ . committee implying a problem, what is it? . . . ,, . is it? we are taking them rather too seriously and _ is it? we are taking them rather too seriously and there _ is it? we are taking them rather too seriously and there is _ is it? we are taking them rather too seriously and there is a _ is it? we are taking them rather too seriously and there is a worry i seriously and there is a worry that if you _ seriously and there is a worry that if you look— seriously and there is a worry that if you look at the monthly gdp data, we are _ if you look at the monthly gdp data, we are talking also about deaths and frankly— we are talking also about deaths and frankly i_ we are talking also about deaths and frankly i disagree with what has 'ust frankly i disagree with what has just been— frankly i disagree with what has just been said. people were making decisions _ just been said. people were making decisions on the basis of those statistics _ decisions on the basis of those statistics. , . statistics. they were about our lives. if statistics. they were about our lives- if they — statistics. they were about our lives. if they are _ statistics. they were about our lives. if they are going - statistics. they were about our lives. if they are going to i statistics. they were about our lives. if they are going to be i lives. if they are going to be revised if — lives. if they are going to be revised if they _ lives. if they are going to be revised if they are _ lives. if they are going to be revised if they are not i lives. if they are going to be i revised if they are not correct there — revised if they are not correct there may— revised if they are not correct there may be the wrong decisions were _ there may be the wrong decisions were made, so we have to be careful. simitarly— were made, so we have to be careful. similarly with economics, we have gdp data — similarly with economics, we have gdp data every month and then it is revised. _ gdp data every month and then it is revised. and — gdp data every month and then it is revised, and quarterly data is revised _ revised, and quarterly data is revised. so we have to be careful in making _ revised. so we have to be careful in making decisions, as now happens, on data _ making decisions, as now happens, on data. because the process is data dependent, and data dependency... if the data _ dependent, and data dependency... if the data is— dependent, and data dependency... if the data is no good, what's the point _ the data is no good, what's the point in — the data is no good, what's the point in decisions? but the data is no good, what's the point in decisions?— the data is no good, what's the point in decisions? but the data is the back-up. _ point in decisions? but the data is the back-up, the _ point in decisions? but the data is the back-up, the justification i point in decisions? but the data is the back-up, the justification for. the back—up, thejustification for decisions. the back-up, the 'ustification for decisions. . , , the back-up, the 'ustification for decisions. ., , , .,

decisions. precisely, it should give ou a decisions. precisely, it should give you a general— decisions. precisely, it should give you a general view— decisions. precisely, it should give you a general view of— decisions. precisely, it should give you a general view of where i decisions. precisely, it should give you a general view of where things are going — you a general view of where things are going and you need to add to this _ are going and you need to add to this the — are going and you need to add to this. the bank of england does and so does _ this. the bank of england does and so does the government generally. there's_ so does the government generally. there's lots of other statistics that come out that our administrative data from various departments, surveys are being done, which _ departments, surveys are being done, which have _ departments, surveys are being done, which have to be added in. you know that a _ which have to be added in. you know that a lot _ which have to be added in. you know that a lot of— which have to be added in. you know that a lot of that is 100% and you know— that a lot of that is 100% and you know it _ that a lot of that is 100% and you know it will— that a lot of that is 100% and you know it will be revised so how you can have — know it will be revised so how you can have decisions being made on 'ust can have decisions being made on just data — can have decisions being made on just data coming out at that point and you _ just data coming out at that point and you raise interest rates for e>

clearly and it was done from the