welcome to hardtalk. i'm stephen sackur. for those who want to see vladimir putin defeated in ukraine, this was supposed to be a decisive phase of the war, a counter—offensive to break through russia's defensive lines alongside a chokehold on the russian economy. is it working? well, at first glance, no. the fighting on the front lines is attritional and hugely costly to both sides. putin's home front has shown cracks, but it hasn't crumbled. my guest is vladimir milov, once a russian minister, now an anti—putin activist in exile. can putin outlast his enemies?

vladimir milov in vilnius, lithuania. welcome to hardtalk. great to be with you. thanks for having me. well, it's a pleasure to have you on the show. you know as well as i do that this war has now lasted for more than 18 months. it has turned into an attritional fight, which is proving to be terribly, horribly costly on both sides. would you accept that that suits vladimir putin right now better than ukraine? on one hand, yes, because putin wants western patience and ukrainian patience to be exhausted and he still has a lot of resources to

fight a lengthy war. on the other hand, there are a lot of bad news for putin. his army and personnel is becoming exhausted and depleted, too. resources are also not endless. and here is where the western sanctions are working. so in the longer run, i think the odds are that ukraine is set finally to win this battle. but we need patience and we might see a protracted conflict. and patience is the key word here. just on the question of the levels of support and assistance being given to ukraine from its supporters in the west, led, of course, by the united states, the...the national security advisor in the white house, jake sullivan, said recently, "we are doing everything, "everything we can to support ukraine "in this counter—offensive." do you believe that to be true? well, not entirely true because obviously everyone who watches this conflict closely knows that ukraine needs more. for once, er, well, the thing that you've been talking

about is the slow pace of ukrainian counteroffensive. that is connected with a lack of air power that was not yet provided by the western allies, but it should have been long ago. so this is the issue number one. but i have to say, the west have provided ukraine with enormous amounts of aid, military aid, much—needed financial and economic aid, tens and tens of billions of dollars. so that is still important. the aid is coming. however, all these political decision delays and bureaucratic delays, they are not helpful, to say the very least. one aspect of the military confrontation i want to ask you about, which is directly relevant to your experience as a russian — clearly, right now, a russian in exile. but nonetheless, i'm interested in your view as to the utility of ukraine increasingly taking the fight on to russian territory, that is, with drone attacks which we've seen in the centre of moscow, we've seen on industrial facilities outside moscow as well.

do you believe that that message to russia, that it is vulnerable on its sovereign territory, is something that, that has an impact on the russian psyche? it has an impact. however, i strongly advise against looking for some one magic silver bullet which will turn things around. everything impacts — economic consequences, the protracted nature of the conflict. for once, many russians are slowly learning about the atrocities that russian forces are committing in ukraine, and it plays a role. russian television tries to protect people from that information, but many are shocked when they learn. another issue are these absolutely predictable attacks on russian territory. it was very clear before the invasion that ukraine would retaliate. so, all these things coming together like, you know, these permanent shutdowns of moscow airports,

that's a pretty painful thing for business, for ordinary people, even for the government officials. so, you know, if all this pressure is applied from all sides, once in a while the system is going to crack. you've already alluded in this conversation to the idea that vladimir putin thinks... he thinks that time is his friend and he seems to think that for several reasons, one of which, he has become increasingly confident, it seems, that his russian economy can survive what the west hoped would be the chokehold of sanctions. now, you are very experienced in the workings of the russian economy. some time ago you were actually an energy minister in moscow. do you believe that the russian economy is indeed much more resilient than the west gave it credit for?

no. and if you really look deeper into dozens of multiple indicators of how the economy is really doing, you'll see that there's a lot of trouble. essentially, the fact that the russian economy hasn't collapsed yet has been achieved with great difficulty, enormous difficulty and enormous pain. and, you know, when people from the west ask me this question, how the russian economy is doing, i say, "imagine your central bank was forced to panically "nearly double the interest rate "in three weeks and your currency have lost half of its value in just one year. "would you say that your economy is doing ok? n°_" if you just scratch the surface, you see that putin is experiencing enormous economic difficulties and his bet on the infinity of resources is wrong. resources are still there. some resilience is still there. but this is finite. you just need to push too hard. and the west and ukraine essentially possess that. . .that power. well, do they? that's really the question because as you...you can point

to the spike in interest rates, you can point to what looks like a deficit crisis in russia. you can point to all sorts of different data. but i can point to other aspects of the economic situation, the fact that russia has found new markets for its oil. you know, china and india and other countries like pakistan and turkey are taking advantage of discounted oil prices from moscow to massively expand their reliance on russian fossil fuels. you say that that isn't an infinite benefit for russia, but frankly, in many ways it looks like something that is almost infinite, this demand for their fossil fuels. there are two major difficulties in all these economic relations with asia. first, it was for a reason, not a coincidence that we traded mostly with europe and not with asia, because most of the russian population and economic activity is concentrated in europe, is geographically part of europe. so it is a logistical nightmare to trade with asia, also impacting inflation

and domestic prices and so on. whatever the difficulties, they're doing it. look at the extraordinary figures. india, 2% of its oil used to come from russia. yes. now it's more than 20%. yeah. right. they're doing it at zero profit or often at a loss. steelmakers, suppliers of roundwood, fisheries, coal, whatever. near loss or zero profit and enormous additional costs. just read the releases of the russian central bank. they list increasing cost of logistics with asian trade as the key pro—inflationary factors. the other thing, the second thing is even more important. we are now learning what we russian democrats knew all along — that the collective west was our major donor in the past 30, a0 years in terms of capital, technology, skill and so on. asia has no business and no interest in being russia's donor. they want our cheap resources with a discount, and they want to supply

manufactured goods to russia with a premium. chinese cars that we are importing now are explosive. they cost like four or five times more than western... russian—manufactured cars of western design that russians bought before the full—scale invasion. so, no, it's again, it's on surface that yes, we do trade with asia in terms of volume. investments are zero. zero investment entries from asian countries since the beginning of the invasion. right. but... interest in... yeah. well, you're making a powerful point but you're also sort of assuming that western sanctions are uniformly and consistently applied. i would put it to you and, of course, you hope that's true because you want to see the putin regime collapse as soon as possible. but i would put it to you, there's plenty of evidence that putin and his team have found different ways to circumvent some of the impacts of western sanctions. look at the rather suspicious

figures coming out of countries like kazakhstan and armenia. they are seeing their imports of, for example, european cars and other european products spike. and nobody believes it's because suddenly kazakhs and armenians are buying vast numbers of german cars. this is absolutely true, and this is one of the very serious challenges of the moment. however, i have to say, first, sanctions are working and having a great impact. second, don't expect any miracles. just like with the ukrainian counteroffensive that we began discussing about earlier on, the sanctions will work over time significantly and russian economy will indeed collapse, but not soon. we really are in a protracted war of attrition, like it or not. and third, yes, you are absolutely right. the key challenge of the moment is that really, i have to say, very successful circumvention of sanctions through third countries — central asia, georgia, armenia, emirates and china, hong kong

and the others. which is why we keep talking in a lot of detail about that with western policymakers, keep releasing the reports and investigations about how it's being done. and are pushing the western policymakers to shut it all down. i have to say that they began noticing the problem and are already making certain steps. but clearly it's not enough and there's not enough stuff, like, the eu doesn't have an agency to deal with sanctions compliance. united states�* office of foreign assets control has only like 250 people for monitoring of sanctions against north korea, syria, russia, iran and so on. that's not enough. you need to beef up staff to really shut down these circumvention schemes. and we know, you know, despite the fact that the west has tried to put an arms embargo on russia, we know that iran and now, it seems, north korea, with the visit of kim jong—un to russia,

are going to be providing on an ongoing basis armaments to moscow. china appears to be providing dual—use bulletproof vests, drones, all sorts of things to moscow. and on the diplomatic front, we saw a g20 summit where no specific condemnation was issued of russia and its activities inside ukraine. so again, i would put it to you as a man whose mission is to get out a message that the world has to take on this responsibility of combating putin and his regime, you're not getting your message out there to a vast swathe of the world represented perhaps by that phrase, the global south. yes, my message is that of consistency and patience, so i can run around shouting "it is your responsibility to bring down putin's regime."

but as a professional, i'd better sit with specific bureaucrats in their boardrooms and discuss what measures needs to be taken to work with the countries of the global south to shut down sanction circumvention schemes. and, you know, it's not all that unsuccessful, because for once, you know that we have been discussing all along, would vladimir putin use tactical nuclear weapons in ukraine or no? i think he received a very strong negative message about that from the countries of the global south. so that is already a result. that is at least something. or india, for instance, is not concluding any more weapons procurement contracts with russia, and there are difficulties with the ongoing still valid contracts. so, i mean, yeah, you're right. generally the countries of the global south were not yet brought on board. there is a lot of diplomatic work, work to be done, but i would not say that there is no particular war going on behind the scenes.

i would not say that this is a total failure. there's been some achievements and so on. and my message is, be patient and continue the necessary positive work. let's talk about where there is virtually no work going on, because it seems impossible to do that work, and that's inside russia for dissidents, for putin opponents such as yourself. i mean, you're sitting there in your studio in vilnius. every other high—profile russian oppositionist or dissident is either in exile or in prison in russia or dead. that's the reality, isn't it? putin has eliminated, effectively eliminated opposition on his own soil. to a certain extent it's true, but we still have enormous audience inside russia, just my personal audience of my channel and my shows with navalny live, with several million unique viewers per month from russia, from inside the country.

like i alone have bigger audience in russia now than all these radio stations during the cold war. voice of america, radio liberty, and so on. yeah, we should explain, i'm going to stop you just for a second, mr milov. we should explain that you are working on a youtube—platformed channel which beams into russian households. at least it does as long as the russians don'tjam and block youtube. you claim you're reaching millions, but surely the facts are there on the streets. you know, we saw tens of thousands of russians in the first weeks of the war prepared to go onto the streets to voice their opposition. now, thatjust doesn't happen. the basic point is opposition inside russia is impossible. so far, yes. but there will be a moment when the system weakens to certain extent that people

will get out to the streets. i would tell you my experience from the 1980s. in 1984, before gorbachev came to power, people really were imprisoned forjust saying something critical about the communist party rule. in three years, in 1987, we were on the streets with slogans, "down with kprf," "down with communist party." so that, i mean, we are preparing the ground for future resistance. russia right now is within the 15, 20 most brutal, oppressive countries in the world, like eritrea or north korea. just look at freedom house ranking or any other ranking. there is no example of successful civil resistance on the ground in regimes like that. right, but the problem you have with this passioned argument that you make is that you're making it from exile. and i don't know whether you would accept this to be true, but it seems to be there's some truth, in the words of the russian political scientist, konstantin kolachev, who says, "the problem with opposition figures

in exile "is that by their very fact of exile, "they immediately lose connection to the country." no, no. mr sackur, we are living in the 21st—century digital information society. that is a false argument. you have multiple examples when people spend years in exile and then return to their countries and successfully reform them, beginning from charles de gaulle, the founder of modern france, or whoever, fernando henrique cardoso in brazil. he lived outside the country during the junta. kim dae—jung, former president of south korea, lived in exile in the united states during the junta. thabo mbeki, president of south africa, lived for 30 years in the uk, where i think you are located at this moment, and i can go on for years. vaira vike—freiberga, a former vice president of latvia, spent 5a years... all right, well, we can do without any more on that list. you made your point, but the point for you is that you're weak, because in a sense

you're also divided. look at the chaotic scenes at a recent meeting in brussels. let mejust finish, so people know what i'm talking about. there was an attempt by european parliamentarians to bring together different groups of russian dissident exiles earlier this summer in brussels. and what happened was that the navalny team refused to show up because, in the words of mikhail khodorkovsky, another leader of the dissident movement overseas, in their minds, that is the navalny people's minds, there can only be one leader of the opposition. it doesn't fit in their worldview that you could have lots of different leaders. why are you so divided? mr sackur, were you at that meeting in brussels injune? i was not. but i was and i was representing navalny team. so before you repeat some statements, i suggest that you please learn the facts. it was an enormously positive and constructive meeting. we continue to work with our colleagues in europe

and america, and we are doing the same thing. no matter what arguments, we have a right. politicians have a right to have an argument between themselves on issues. that's an undeniable right of democratic society. but when we are working and broadcasting on the russian society, our message is absolutely united. anti—war, anti—dictatorship, freedom, peace, and this is what we all share, so i don't see that. i think press is amplifying some sort of tactical divisions that we have to demonise ourselves. i don't think that's a good approach. in your career in moscow, having long left government, you became quite clear and loud in your opposition to where putin was taking russia. for a long time, you were a supporter and ally of boris nemtsov. now, he was murdered just metres from the walls of the kremlin. you joined the navalny movement. you were a strong supporter of alexei navalny. he's now in prison,

in solitary confinement, and everybody believes he won't get out of prison as long as vladimir putin is in power. the long reach of russia has, of course, also reached far beyond russia's own borders. you must dwell on all of this. are you scared? no, no. we, you know, we passed that point a long time ago. i used to discuss this with boris nemtsov when he was alive face—to—face. and there was always a question that he might be murdered or imprisoned. was he afraid? he said, "yeah, as a human, i am, "but the next question immediately is, "am i ready to stop doing what i'm doing because i'm afraid?" and he was shaking his head like a stubborn bull and saying, "no, there is no way they make me "stop my activity." and i can only repeat this about myself, after all these cases, after boris being murdered, navalny and kara—murza being imprisoned and poisoned and so on. you now, of course, you face your own situation. you are a wanted man by the moscow authorities. indeed, i believe you've also

now been convicted and will be, if you ever were to go back, you would be spending some time in prison for spreading fake news about the russian military. so it surely is a situation you have to think about very carefully, notjust for yourself, but your family. this is right, and i spent some time in prison. i spent over a month in total. russian prison is no fun, but that made me even angrier. so i think i wake up every day thinking what i can do more to do damage to vladimir putin's brutal, dictatorial regime, so that only... these risks only motivate me to work more and be more effective in this way. you use those words like "brutal dictatorship." how do you feel then when the signals, diplomatic signals coming out of the west are that ultimately there's a feeling there will have to be some sort of negotiation, some sort of process that

includes vladimir putin? antony blinken, us secretary of state, said days ago, he said, "right now, we see no indication that putin "has interest in meaningful diplomacy, but if he does, "i think the ukrainians will be the first to engage "and we'll be right behind them." mr macron in france said a few months ago, "you have to negotiate with the leaders that you have, "de facto, even if the day after you negotiate with them, "you have to judge them "in front of international justice." are you ready to say that there will at some point be negotiations with vladimir putin? you know, i work very closely with western governments, bureaucrats and diplomats since 1990s. and the good news is that, to my personal understanding, at this moment, there is the least level of trust that i've seen in years towards vladimir putin

and the least desire to work and negotiate with him. so on that regard, i'm not concerned. what i am deeply concerned about is further war fatigue, because politicians react to public opinion, and the most dangerous and risky are the 2024 presidential elections in the united states. because when i look at the republican party primary field, over 80% of the votes of republican party supporters go to candidates who want to shut down support for ukraine and force them to concede territory. so, yeah, there is danger along the way and particularly across the atlantic, so we have to be absolutely open about that. vladimir milov, i really thank you forjoining me on hardtalk. we're out of time, but thanks forjoining me from vilnius. it was a great pleasure.

hello. thursday promises to bring a real mix of weather across the uk. for much of wales, parts of the midlands and northern england, we will have a band of cloud bringing some outbreaks of rain at times. to the south of that, it will be dry and warm. to the north of that, a mix of sunshine and showers. and in the far north, in northern scotland, some strong winds. it's all because of an area of low pressure and this dangling frontal system here. this weather front, will be very, very slow—moving through the day on thursday, so we will see that band of cloud and rain across wales, parts of the midlands, some parts of northern england. we start the day with gales across the north of scotland and some heavy rain drifting its way across

the northern isles. scotland, northern ireland, the far north of england can expect a day of sunny spells and scattered showers. then here's our rain bands, the rainjust waxing and waning across parts of wales, the north midlands, northern england. to the south of that, some spells of sunshine and some warmth, highs of 23, 2a, maybe 25 degrees. now, through thursday night, our rain band will tend to pep up again and it will also drift northwards across northern england, into northern ireland, southern and central parts of scotland by the end of the night. to the south of that, clear spells, 11 or 12 degrees. to the north of that, actually rather chilly in the north of scotland. but for friday, well, it looks very wet indeed across northern ireland, rain also affecting southern and central parts of scotland. and underneath the cloud, with the outbreaks of rain, temperatures in glasgow only getting to 13 degrees, 1a there in belfast. compare that with 25 in london. some warmth and humidity building down towards the south. into the weekend, this area of low pressure swirling to the south—west of us will try to throw some showers or longer spells of rain in our direction.

and with that, some relatively warm and humid air. that said, many places on saturday will see a fair amount of dry weather. a little bit of cloud, some bits and pieces of rain here and there, maybe some thunderstorms in the channel islands and the south—west of england. but towards the south—east corner, in the sunshine, highs of 26 or 27 degrees. always cooler and fresher further north, but some warmth and humidity for many of us on sunday. with that, some heavy showers and some thunderstorms. that's all from me. bye for now.

live from london, this is bbc news. back in britain and arrested on suspicion of murder — detectives are to begin questioning three relatives of ten—year—old

sara sharif. fears the number of people who died in the catastrophic floods in libya could reach as high as 20,000. north korea says president putin has accepted an invitation to visit pyongyang from its leader, kimjong—un. and tech heavyweights, including elon musk and mark zuckerberg, meet in washington to discuss the future of ai regulation. hello. a very warm welcome to the programme. iam a very warm welcome to the programme. i am sally bundock. the father, step—mother and uncle of sara sharif will face questioning today after being arrested on their return to the uk last night. the three adults went to pakistan the day before the 10—year—old's body was found in woking last month. they returned voluntarily. our home affairs correspondent daniel sandford has the latest.