dame sharon white will stand down as chair of thejohn lewis partnership when her five—year term ends next year. the longestjoint strike action in nhs history. junior doctors and consultants walk off the job for three days, in an ongoing dispute over pay. the average house price continues to fall. they're now about £14,500 less than a year ago. the water companies�* plan to reduce sewage spills. and they want an extra £150 a year from customers to pay for it. tax cuts are at the centre of the debate among mps at the conservative party conference, which continues today. those calling for cuts include former prime minister liz truss. we're expecting to hear more from her today. but chancellorjeremy hunt —

who will set out his economic plans in next month's autumn statement — he has said tax cuts are "virtually impossible" at present. live now to manchester to speak to our political correspondent, nick eardley. the focus will be on the economy today and tax cuts and some people asking for higher wages as well. good morning. there will be higher wages for a lotta people because the government is confirming today the national wage will go up to £11, not a huge surprise because the government follows the recommendations it gets pretty much every opportunity. you are also right tax continues to be a debate within the conservative party, different wings calling for different wings calling for different things. the chancellor saying steady as she goes for the moment, some of the allies of liz

truss, they are still around and making those arguments, saying we need to go faster and be bolder with tax cuts and one man involved in drawing up the policy on this is the chief secretary to the treasury. thanks for coming in and chatting to us. this tax debate that are still ongoing within the conservative party, are you going to level with voters and just say, there aren't going to be tax cuts before the general election, is that a fair summary? i general election, is that a fair summary?— general election, is that a fair summa ? ~ , ., , summary? i think the priority given the amount — summary? i think the priority given the amount of— summary? i think the priority given the amount of borrowing _ summary? i think the priority given the amount of borrowing we - summary? i think the priority given the amount of borrowing we have l summary? i think the priority given - the amount of borrowing we have most people _ the amount of borrowing we have most people understand then we came into power— people understand then we came into power three months later we shut down _ power three months later we shut down the — power three months later we shut down the economy, we borrowed a huge sum of— down the economy, we borrowed a huge sum of money to support people, businesses, communities, the further scheme, _ businesses, communities, the further scheme, the — businesses, communities, the further scheme, the health service, that debt_ scheme, the health service, that deht does— scheme, the health service, that debt does notjust scheme, the health service, that debt does not just evaporate and we are dealing with the consequences of that and _ are dealing with the consequences of that and what happened in ukraine on foot that _ that and what happened in ukraine on foot that day to energy prices and that cannotjust be got rid of by a

declaration from the chancellor. we are dealing — declaration from the chancellor. we are dealing with inflation effects, seeing _ are dealing with inflation effects, seeing inflation get lower. it's due to get— seeing inflation get lower. it's due to get to _ seeing inflation get lower. it's due to get to 5% by the end of the year, most _ to get to 5% by the end of the year, most unless— to get to 5% by the end of the year, most unless an economist say so and further— most unless an economist say so and further on _ most unless an economist say so and further on it— most unless an economist say so and further on it will go lower.— further on it will go lower. that's the key question _ further on it will go lower. that's the key question most _ further on it will go lower. that's the key question most people i further on it will go lower. that's l the key question most people here are asking. in the key question most people here are askinu. , are asking. in every fiscal event i've been _ are asking. in every fiscal event i've been involved _ are asking. in every fiscal event i've been involved in, _ are asking. in every fiscal event i've been involved in, working l are asking. in every fiscal eventl i've been involved in, working for the treasury in the last six or seven— the treasury in the last six or seven years, we do not announce decisions _ seven years, we do not announce decisions at — seven years, we do not announce decisions at fiscal events. you know the economists and those that observe — the economists and those that observe these things change their predictions of the time but our priority— predictions of the time but our priority is— predictions of the time but our priority is to get inflation down, the best— priority is to get inflation down, the best thing we can do for households and businesses up and down _ households and businesses up and down the — households and businesses up and down the country.— households and businesses up and down the country. what will you do a 12:30m down the country. what will you do a 12:30pm when _ down the country. what will you do a 12:30pm when the _ down the country. what will you do a 12:30pm when the stress _ down the country. what will you do a 12:30pm when the stress is - down the country. what will you do a 12:30pm when the stress is making l 12:30pm when the stress is making her speech, would you have your head in your hands? i her speech, would you have your head in your hands?— in your hands? i am not surprised conservative _ in your hands? i am not surprised conservative backbench _ in your hands? i am not surprised conservative backbench mps - in your hands? i am not surprised conservative backbench mps talk| conservative backbench mps talk about _ conservative backbench mps talk about tax — conservative backbench mps talk about tax cuts and we all believe as about tax cuts and we all believe as a party— about tax cuts and we all believe as a party in _ about tax cuts and we all believe as a party in trying to do everything we can— a party in trying to do everything we can to — a party in trying to do everything we can to reduce the size of the state _ we can to reduce the size of the state and — we can to reduce the size of the state and give hard—working people

up state and give hard—working people up and _ state and give hard—working people up and down the country more of their— up and down the country more of their money back and spent taxpayers money— their money back and spent taxpayers money wisely. of course there is always _ money wisely. of course there is always going to be tension for me do that and _ always going to be tension for me do that and i_ always going to be tension for me do that and i will listen carefully to all of _ that and i will listen carefully to all of those use colleagues. is it helful all of those use colleagues. is it helpful that _ all of those use colleagues. is it helpful that liz _ all of those use colleagues. is it helpful that liz truss _ all of those use colleagues. is it helpful that liz truss is turning up again and making the argument she was making last year? people might wonder why she is still around at the tory conference, given the disastrous tenure ship she had? i disastrous tenure ship she had? i listen to all of my colleagues, she is an— listen to all of my colleagues, she is an mp. — listen to all of my colleagues, she is an mp, but i am focused on how we ensure— is an mp, but i am focused on how we ensure inflation continues to go down _ ensure inflation continues to go down. that is the priority of this government and that gives us choices for high _ government and that gives us choices for high productivity growth which we are _ for high productivity growth which we are confident will emerge next year _ we are confident will emerge next ear. ., w' we are confident will emerge next ear. . y ., we are confident will emerge next ear. ., ., ,, year. let me ask you about hst. i think the line — year. let me ask you about hst. i think the line is _ year. let me ask you about hst. i think the line is this _ year. let me ask you about hst. i think the line is this week - year. let me ask you about hst. i think the line is this week you - year. let me ask you about hst. i think the line is this week you will not speculate on what might happen with hst but can you tell us how that decision will be made and when will we know if hs2 reaches the city

of manchester? this will we know if h52 reaches the city of manchester?— will we know if h52 reaches the city of manchester? as chief secretary i see vast amounts _ of manchester? as chief secretary i see vast amounts of— of manchester? as chief secretary i see vast amounts of public- see vast amounts of public expenditure, taxpayers money, it is not mine _ expenditure, taxpayers money, it is not mine. and we should be continuing to look at value for money— continuing to look at value for money across government. that process _ money across government. that process is— money across government. that process is ongoing, there is not a single _ process is ongoing, there is not a single point— process is ongoing, there is not a single point of crystallisation... there _ single point of crystallisation... there is— single point of crystallisation... there is not a point at which he will make the decision and tell the north of england? the will make the decision and tell the north of england?— will make the decision and tell the north of england? the prime minister will ultimately — north of england? the prime minister will ultimately make _ north of england? the prime minister will ultimately make the _ north of england? the prime minister will ultimately make the decision... . will ultimately make the decision... that is— will ultimately make the decision... that is a _ will ultimately make the decision... that is a matter for the prime minister _ that is a matter for the prime minister. as he cut this week? that is a matter— minister. as he cut this week? that is a matter for the prime minister. i is a matter for the prime minister. i know— is a matter for the prime minister. i know you — is a matter for the prime minister. i know you want to keep people saying — i know you want to keep people saying the same answer. but i know you want to keep people saying the same answer. but you know wh we are saying the same answer. but you know why we are asking _ saying the same answer. but you know why we are asking because _ saying the same answer. but you know why we are asking because a _ saying the same answer. but you know why we are asking because a lot - saying the same answer. but you know why we are asking because a lot of - why we are asking because a lot of people speculating privately in government the decision had pretty much been made that yoga would count the birmingham to manchester line. all i can tell you that is that capital— all i can tell you that is that capital investment in our infrastructure, part of 600 billion of capital— infrastructure, part of 600 billion of capital investment we make as a government, is very important but it's important we get value for

money— it's important we get value for money but what i would also say to you since _ money but what i would also say to you since the pandemic we have seen significant _ you since the pandemic we have seen significant reductions in people using _ significant reductions in people using the rail infrastructure, 30% less _ using the rail infrastructure, 30% less at— using the rail infrastructure, 30% less at the — using the rail infrastructure, 30% less. at the same time we on 30 billion— less. at the same time we on 30 billion of— less. at the same time we on 30 billion of subsidy for people using rail. billion of subsidy for people using rail~ must— billion of subsidy for people using rail. must look at what we see and what _ rail. must look at what we see and what is _ rail. must look at what we see and what is the — rail. must look at what we see and what is the right thing for the country— what is the right thing for the country as a whole. the chancellor and the work _ country as a whole. the chancellor and the work and _ country as a whole. the chancellor and the work and pensions - country as a whole. the chancellor i and the work and pensions secretary will talk about benefits today and reforms of the benefits system so can i ask you a slightly different question? will you erase benefits in line with inflation or might you try and save some cash by doing it the same rate as wages?— and save some cash by doing it the same rate as wages? there is another treat same rate as wages? there is another great mechanism _ same rate as wages? there is another great mechanism as _ same rate as wages? there is another great mechanism as you _ same rate as wages? there is another great mechanism as you know, - same rate as wages? there is another great mechanism as you know, every| great mechanism as you know, every year. _ great mechanism as you know, every year. for— great mechanism as you know, every year, for pensions and benefits. the secretary— year, for pensions and benefits. the secretary of — year, for pensions and benefits. the secretary of state for work and pensions — secretary of state for work and pensions is looking carefully at that and — pensions is looking carefully at that and what that should be... but are the that and what that should be... are they both that and what that should be... eli are they both options? that and what that should be... but are they both options? there - that and what that should be... but are they both options? there is - that and what that should be... but are they both options? there is a l are they both options? there is a rocess are they both options? there is a process for— are they both options? there is a process for evaluating _ are they both options? there is a process for evaluating that - are they both options? there is a process for evaluating that as - are they both options? there is a process for evaluating that as we | process for evaluating that as we move _ process for evaluating that as we move towards the autumn statement.

last year. _ move towards the autumn statement. last year, people now a cabinet were turning up going bonkers suggesting that you will put benefits up below the rate of inflation so a real terms cut but can you rule that out this year? terms cut but can you rule that out this ear? ~ ., this year? when we get into the “ourne this year? when we get into the journey up _ this year? when we get into the journey up to — this year? when we get into the journey up to a _ this year? when we get into the journey up to a fiscal _ this year? when we get into the journey up to a fiscal event - this year? when we get into the journey up to a fiscal event and | this year? when we get into the i journey up to a fiscal event and we have _ journey up to a fiscal event and we have the _ journey up to a fiscal event and we have the autumn statement confirmed for the _ have the autumn statement confirmed for the 20th of november, there will inevitably— for the 20th of november, there will inevitably be a range of input and you will— inevitably be a range of input and you will see a lot of them at the fringe _ you will see a lot of them at the fringe events at conference but the treasury _ fringe events at conference but the treasury is — fringe events at conference but the treasury is focused on putting together— treasury is focused on putting together a package of intervention that brings inflation down and sets the conditions for growth and uses taxpayer— the conditions for growth and uses taxpayer money efficiently and effectively. as i said, there is a mechanism for upgrading benefits in line with _ mechanism for upgrading benefits in line with inflation and the relationship with earnings and that is something we will look at and in the end. _ is something we will look at and in the end. it — is something we will look at and in the end, it is the work and pensions secretary— the end, it is the work and pensions secretary talking to the chancellor that will— secretary talking to the chancellor that will resolve that. let secretary talking to the chancellor that will resolve that.— that will resolve that. let me ask ou about that will resolve that. let me ask you about the — that will resolve that. let me ask you about the brother _ that will resolve that. let me ask you about the brother at - that will resolve that. let me ask - you about the brother at conference. quite often the most interesting

conversations you half are in the bars and on french meetings, these interviews are not interesting... of the record! i am quite strapped over quite lot of activists telling me and my colleagues in the journalistic world that they are not really sure rishi sunak has hit the ground running at this conference. feels a bit flat so far, yes he has lots of energy but there haven't been any big idea so far so when will that change? i do been any big idea so far so when will that change?— will that change? i do not accept that at all- _ will that change? i do not accept that at all. | — will that change? i do not accept that at all. | think— will that change? i do not accept that at all. | think rishi - will that change? i do not accept that at all. i think rishi sunak. will that change? i do not acceptl that at all. i think rishi sunak has -ot that at all. i think rishi sunak has got a _ that at all. i think rishi sunak has got a very— that at all. i think rishi sunak has got a very difficult set of cards, set out — got a very difficult set of cards, set out a — got a very difficult set of cards, set out a very clear delivery plan on his— set out a very clear delivery plan on his five — set out a very clear delivery plan on his five priorities in which we are making _ on his five priorities in which we are making significant progress and he has _ are making significant progress and he has made some bold announcements as he did _ he has made some bold announcements as he did the _ he has made some bold announcements as he did the week before last on what _ as he did the week before last on what we — as he did the week before last on what we are doing in terms of net zero. _ what we are doing in terms of net zero, committing to that but doing it at a _ zero, committing to that but doing it at a pace — zero, committing to that but doing it at a pace that is rational and reasonable given the costs for homeowners and hard—working families — homeowners and hard—working families. you will hear more from the prime — families. you will hear more from the prime minister in his speech on wednesday morning which is

absolutely normal for conference. i respectfully do not accept that characterisation of the met here. it is a bit. _ characterisation of the met here. it is a bit. i_ characterisation of the met here. it is a bit, i have been coming here for 25_ is a bit, i have been coming here for 25 years _ is a bit, i have been coming here for 25 years plus and i see a great deal of— for 25 years plus and i see a great deal of optimism as we deal with the inflation _ deal of optimism as we deal with the inflation rate challenge which is the economy. inflation rate challenge which is the economy-— inflation rate challenge which is the economy. inflation rate challenge which is the econom . ,, . ., , ., the economy. chief secretary to the treasu , the economy. chief secretary to the treasury. thank _ the economy. chief secretary to the treasury, thank you _ the economy. chief secretary to the treasury, thank you so _ the economy. chief secretary to the treasury, thank you so much. - the economy. chief secretary to the j treasury, thank you so much. some expectations within the government the questions over tax decisions in the questions over tax decisions in the future of hst and the benefits. back to you guys. the future of hst and the benefits. back to you guys-— the future of hst and the benefits. back to you guys. dame sharon white will stand down as chair of thejohn lewis partnership. dame sharon's term ends next year and she will not seek a second, with sources saying she wants an orderly succession. with more on this, i am joined in the newsroom by the bbc�*s business editor, simonjack. tell us more about the decision from

the emma sherin white. was it expected? the emma sherin white. was it exoected?_ the emma sherin white. was it exoected?— the emma sherin white. was it exected? . , �* , ., expected? yes, she'd been having some problems, _ expected? yes, she'd been having some problems, the _ expected? yes, she'd been having some problems, the john - expected? yes, she'd been having some problems, the john lewis i some problems, thejohn lewis partnership announced a £270 million loss last year and lost a further £57 million loss in the first six months of this year. the trailblazer, the first woman to be the chairman of thejohn lewis partnership in the first person of colour, hersuccessor partnership in the first person of colour, her successor expected to be announced next year but she will serve her five year term announced next year but she will serve herfive year term up announced next year but she will serve her five year term up to 2025, the shortest serving chair by a long way in the near 100 year as a partnership which is the job you usually take on for the best part of a decade or more. when she was first appointed there were eyebrows raised because this is a woman who was a civil servant and cut her teeth in the treasury and she went on to become a regulator as head of 0fcom with no real retail experience and a lot of people were surprised by the

appointment. underthe lot of people were surprised by the appointment. under the chair took a more executive chairman role, more hands—on, in the day you would have a managing director of waitrose and ofjohn lewis, that was consolidated and she kind of take up that structure. it has not particularly worked. to be fair to her we had a pandemic that was thrown at her and also the worst cost—of—living crisis we have seen since the second world war so a very difficult environment in which to operate. like all other retailers, especially department stores, we have seen others go bust, for example debenhams, you have changes in the way people shop, physical space not seen are so important and john lewis have been on a big expansion drive at the time physical space was seen to be less important so some people will say strategic errors. she says having got through the worst of the cost of living crisis this is the right time to go and ensure an orderly transition. she will be the shortest serving chair in the history of the

partnership. serving chair in the history of the partnership-— serving chair in the history of the --artnershi. ., ., ., partnership. you mention some of the challenaes partnership. you mention some of the challenges she — partnership. you mention some of the challenges she has _ partnership. you mention some of the challenges she has faced _ partnership. you mention some of the challenges she has faced as _ partnership. you mention some of the challenges she has faced as head - partnership. you mention some of the challenges she has faced as head of i challenges she has faced as head of the john lewis challenges she has faced as head of thejohn lewis partnership. her term is set to end it verbally 25 so what will she be hoping to achieve between now and then? she will she be hoping to achieve between now and then? she has set out a pretty — between now and then? she has set out a pretty ambitious _ between now and then? she has set| out a pretty ambitious modernisation and transformation programme. 0ne out a pretty ambitious modernisation and transformation programme. one of the most controversial thing she contemplated to raise cash to do the investment, revamp the offering of modernised stores will sell a stake in the employee owned john lewis partnership to an outside investor. 0ne partnership to an outside investor. one of the unique things about the john lewis partnership isjust that, it is owned by the employees and they all get a share of the profits, if you make something, they didn't get anything last year for the second time since 53 so she was proposing some pretty radical thing is to lose cash. it is thought they are mulling over the idea of selling off some waitrose stores and leasing them back, another way of gaining cash but no decision on that yet.

they need money to invest in stores, she says they are on a road to profitability and a couple of weeks ago she said there is a long road ahead to achieve that but it appears now she may not be on that road for much longer. now she may not be on that road for much longer-— italy's prime minister has warned europe will be "overwhelmed" by migration unless the eu finds solutions. italy currently receives the highest number of people smugglers boats, carrying asylum seekers and other migrants in europe. but many of the migrants then aim to travel north to countries like germany, france or the uk. 0ur correspondent mark lowen has been to two different locations — where migrants are attempting to cross. preparing, they hope, their footsteps to freedom. they trod the long path of desperation to europe, but even now, in italy, they want to go on to france and beyond. numbers here have doubled since last year, armed with their dreams and kit from this charity to cross

the tough alpine border. 0marfrom nigeria went via libya, paying smugglers $800 to reach the southern italian island of lampedusa. his aim — to get to britain. i just want to have a good life, to study there. but have you not seen all the pictures and have you not heard about people being sent back from britain or sent back from france? yes, i am seeing, but you know, i willjust try my best to... i will try again to go. from africa and the middle east, they are on the same team, keeping spirits up before the hard journey ahead. some fail early — an egyptian is sent back, but the checks this side are rare. volunteer, eleanor, says the italian

police seem to turn a blind eye. they know exactly what we do here. they know exactly what these people are here for, so it is like a game somehow. they know but they pretend not to know. there will be some people who would say you are encouraging illegal migration. if you see somebody that needs something, or if you know which are the risks in the mountains, because you know the mountain and you live here, can you allow people to walk in the mountain like this? a short bus ride and they are at the border. but most avoid the official crossing, fearing police. instead, they scatter into the forest, waiting to dash over the alps. the pull of europe leads through perilous parts that have already taken the lives of some seeking new ones. 0thers try a different route across, further south in ventimiglia, close to nice. but on the french side, controls are stringent.

each train is checked, leaving no door open. it is a constant to—and—fro, the italian authorities happy enough to see the migrants cross here into france, no longer their responsibility, only for the french police to say, "we don't want them either", and to send them back across the border. but caught in the middle of europe's game of cat and mouse are the desperate. they may have failed today but whatever the impediment, it is likely they will keep on trying. so they wait for their next chance — no sea, no border a deterrence. the far—right mayor here is seeking divine intervention from brussels. translation: the eu is not working. each country is setting its own migration limits and italy has to shoulder the burden alone. france suspended free movement at its border and we are forced to take back huge numbers, which is only slowing the flow to

calais and britain, not solving it. migrants have spat and urinated in the cemetery. we have reached our limit. we could become the lampedusa of the north. at the alpine border, the red cross helps ease hunger and cold until the migrants will make their move away from prying eyes. europe faces a new bottleneck here, and whatever its leaders seem to do, hope and determination are proving impossible to extinguish. mark lowen, bbc news, on the italy/france border. the armenian authorities say that almost the entire population of 120,000 ethnic armenians has now left nagorno—karabakh, which came under full azerbaijani control last week. tens of thousands of refugees have been provided with temporary accommodation inside armenia, but there are still many in search of protection. 0ur correspondent rayhan demytrie visited one of the shelters for displaced people in the armenian town of goris, and sent this report.

playing under a peaceful sky at last. just two weeks ago, these children were hiding in bomb shelters. 15—year—old macias says everything still feels like a bad dream. when on september the 19th, azerbaijan launched its military offensive to establish full control over nagorno—karabakh, he was at school in his hometown of martuni. translation: at around 2pm, we finished lessons at school. | i was on my way home with a friend. we heard loud banging. at first i thought it was a military exercise. then the explosion started to happen, one after another. we ran to the nearby police station to hide in the basement to save our lives. masis is sheltering in the centre in the outskirts

of goris with his parents, siblings and his aunt. everyone here is traumatised by the violence and the sudden uprooting from their homes. "we didn't imagine that all this would happen to us", says lusine, the mother of four. "we have been abandoned. "we're alone", she says. the armenian authorities have provided temporary accommodation to 35,000 refugees out of the 100,000 that were forced to flee nagorno—karabakh. but this shelter is the initiative of a local non—governmental organisation, women in network. we adapted our home as a shelter, providing them accommodation, food, some hygiene, hygiene items. this warm and welcoming place is only a temporary solution for karabakh armenians that are still coming to terms with the events of the past weeks.

their lives have been turned upside down and what these people need the most is a place they can call home. inga is waiting for transportation. she decided to move herfamily to rastan in central armenia. nnow that the unrecognised republic of artsakh cease to exist she's asking what was all the sacrifice for? translation: let god give us peace to our land. - i do not want anything else. i just want peace. gohar is drawing the road from karabakh. "it's empty", she says, "because everyone has left". rayhan demetrie, bbc news, goris, armenia. uk house prices fell 5.3% in the year to september. that's according to the latest house price index from the nationwide building society. it says the average house price last month was more than £14,000 lower

than at the same time last year, as interest rates continue to squeeze the market. with more, i am joined now by the chief economist at nationwide, robert gardner. just tell us more about what you've been able to find out through this survey, is it a case of interest rates rising and therefore fewer people being able to buy houses? it is definitely the case that affordability is no more stretched because interest rates have increased so much over the last 25 and 18 months so look back to mid—21, a typicalfixed—rate mid—21, a typical fixed—rate mortgage mid—21, a typicalfixed—rate mortgage was around 1.5%, in the last few months it's around 6% so you see it's become much more difficult for people to purchase homes and you can see that in house prices being more subdued but also

the transactions taking place. for example last week bank of england data showed the number of mortgages approved for house purchase in august were round about 30% below what they were in 2019 before the pandemic so it's a very subdued market as a result.— pandemic so it's a very subdued market as a result. subdued market as ou market as a result. subdued market as you mentioned _ market as a result. subdued market as you mentioned but _ market as a result. subdued market as you mentioned but what - market as a result. subdued market as you mentioned but what kind - market as a result. subdued market as you mentioned but what kind of l as you mentioned but what kind of impact does this have on the economy, the broader economy? it does impact the body economy through quite some channels. fewer transactions means less things like people moving home, purchasing white goods under the related services relating to sales and with house prices lower, people feel less wealthy so that means they spend less on other things. maybe less scope for them to withdraw equity from their home as well and get to by other things to improve their home so it has a ripple effect across the entire economy and on confidence. it can make people feel

less confident and therefore less willing to spend. i less confident and therefore less willing to spend.— willing to spend. i think it would be unfair to _ willing to spend. i think it would be unfair to ask _ willing to spend. i think it would be unfair to ask you _ willing to spend. i think it would be unfair to ask you how - willing to spend. i think it would be unfair to ask you how long i willing to spend. i think it would | be unfair to ask you how long the price drop will continue for but would not be your advice to people sitting at home thinking about whether they should put their house on the market or buy a home? how long do you estimate this could go on for and i appreciate you cannot make predictions. it is on for and i appreciate you cannot make predictions.— make predictions. it is very difficult and _ make predictions. it is very difficult and a _ make predictions. it is very difficult and a lot _ make predictions. it is very difficult and a lot will- make predictions. it is very i difficult and a lot will depend make predictions. it is very - difficult and a lot will depend on how the broader economy performs. globally in the market and how interest rates evolves and it comes down to individual circumstances, that will be the main thing when people think about whether they move or not. in terms of the broader market and affordability, it will probably take some time for affordability to improve, interest rates are not expected to fall dramatically in the years ahead therefore mortgages will probably only moved out modestly at all in the years ahead. the way that affordability will improve is by people's earnings happening and rising more quickly than house prices and that will take time to

have a minimal effect on affordability. there have been calls for the government to step in and today you have the conservative party conference and the chancellor speaking about his plans for the economy. what are you looking for from the government can offer could they be doing to help the market? it is challenging. when you look at the constraints to activity, you are looking for people to get into the market, interest rates are higher and there is a cooling effect, chilling effect across the market so thatis chilling effect across the market so that is why we see activity levels as low as they are and we have seen house prices moderate so it is difficult and the most important thing is the broader economy so as i say as long as incomes keep rising at a decent pace, if interest rates moderately little that will improve affordability which should help the market and take some time and i

think it will be subdued in the interim as we have seen the last few months. the chief economist at nationwide, robert gardner, thanks so much. one of the biggest live audiences of the american football season has gathered in newjersey to watch — notjust the new yorkjets play the kansas city chiefs — but also to try to spot the pop superstar, taylor swift. it's the second weekend running that she's watched the man rumoured to be her boyfriend — the chiefs' player — travis kelsey. and ticket sales have spiked. sales of kelsey�*s football shirt have also soared by 400% since rumours of their romance started.

you are watching bbc news. plenty of build—up but today is the first day of the tory party conference in manchester. 0ne of the tory party conference in manchester. one of the main speeches today will be from the chancellor jeremy hunt. he is going to address the conservative party conference just after 2 pm this afternoon. we are going to bring you that live here on bbc news. some tories are piling on the pressure for tax cuts butjeremy hunt has insisted there will be no tax cuts this year. he does not however rule out anything for it next year. we are expecting the secretary for energy, security and net zero who is expected to speak shortly, and following her will beat the transport secretary. we will be bringing you those in the art and comic minutes so please stay with us but let's get all of the

insight and analysis ahead of some of the speeches we are going to bring you. we can go to manchester and nick bradley canjoin us. 13 years in power, five prime ministers, seven chancellors, what are the conservatives going to say over the next few days to prove to voters they are the party for the next five years?— next five years? really good question- — next five years? really good question. the _ next five years? really good question. the pitch - next five years? really good question. the pitch you - next five years? really good question. the pitch you willl next five years? really good - question. the pitch you will hear from rishi sunak and his colleagues is they are prepared to take some difficult decisions in the long term interest of the country. but it's been a peculiar conference so far. there has been a lot of pressure as you say on tax, a lot of questions over hst and whether it will reach the city, a lot of the questions facing the government that they have not really wanted to get into the detail of. i think that's left a bit of a forward so far when the big stories so far have been pressure on

the prime minister rather than the prime minister setting out his big vision for the country. so the next couple of days are going to be really crucial, the chancellors speaking this afternoon and that will be important for trying to grab the narrative and say here is what we want to do as a party, you are hear an argument from the conservatives that rishi sunak can be the candidate of change at the next election. despite everything you just said about how long the conservatives have been in power. the speeches she will hear an argument from the conservatives that rishi sunak can be the candidate of change at the next election. despite everything you just said about how long the conservatives have been in power. the speech issue here in the next few minutes are actually pretty important, sometimes let's whisper it, some of the speech is a conference can be repetitive, sometimes dare we say that they can do about the energy and transport briefs are really important at the moment so energy, as we know, the prime minister has changed course when it comes to how he wants to achieve net zero. that means watering down some of the short—term commitments to things like electric

vehicles and changing boilers, gas boilers in people's homes. the new energy secretary, only been in the job a number of weeks, that will be an important way for her to set out her style and mark harper, the transport secretary still has not answered the question everyone is asking, what on earth will happen with hsz? will the asking, what on earth will happen with hs2? will the line from birmingham to manchester be cancelled? the expectation is yes, the government has not quite confirm that and as we heard from john glenn some moments ago, the decisions have not yet been made so there is going to be quite a lot to watch out for in these speeches and interestingly with more copper, maybe 1t0 does not say about hs2 which is the most important. if you talk about the different initiatives we are going to hear about. let's dive into some of those in a moment. the party could,

genuinely, face a possible defeat here. this must be weighing on their mind? the next election coming up. what is the mood like among conservative mps where you are? it’s conservative mps where you are? it's not conservative mps where you are? it�*s not great. chatting to some of them last night, away from the conference hall, which is where the most interesting conversations happen, i think there is a sense that they really want to rishi sunak to give the party rocket boosters over the next few days. the tories are well behind in the polls. they are really trailing to labour. they are struggling to get back on the front foot and because of that, there is a sense that something really needs to change. that is what rishi sunak i think is going to try to do in his big set piece speech on wednesday. also chatting to tory activists last night, i think there was a bit of a sense yesterday that they weren't really sure what the thing they are supposed to be celebrating so far is. when the prime minister was on laura kuenssberg's programme

yesterday, he was largely