tv Verified Live BBC News October 9, 2023 5:00pm-5:31pm BST
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this is the scene live in gaza as the sun sets. israel's prime minister says his country's response will �*change the middle east'. welcome to verified live, three hours of breaking stories and checking out the truth behind them. israel's defence minister says he's ordered a "full siege" of the gaza strip. after israel's biggest loss of life in generations, the minister said there would be no power, no food, no fuel and that everything would be closed down. this is live in gaza. the sun is setting but you can still see smoke billowing across the skyline. three very large explosions in the last few minutes. the european commission has also announced the immediate suspension of all aid to palestinians.
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the united nations secretary general, antonio guterres, is due to speak on the conflict this hour. we will carry that come alive, here on bbc news. meanwhile, israel has intensified their attacks on hamas. these some of the latest pictures coming into us. military officials say israel has struck more than 1,000 targets in gaza. 560 palestinians are reported dead. a hamas spokesman claimed that four israelis whohad been taken hostage had been killed in the air strikes, a claim that hasn't been verified. the israeli military says it's regained control of all southern communities attacked by hamas though it warned isolated pockets of fighters could still remain. hamas has continued to fire missiles into israel, targeting jerusalem, ben gurion airport near tel aviv, and ashkelon. israel's iron dome defence system has intercepted many of the rockets.
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at least 700 israelis have been killed, including at least 260 at a music festival. it's believed about 100 israelis are being held hostage in gaza. there are reports that mediators from qatar have had contact with hamas officials to try to negotiate the release of israeli women and children, but an unnamed israeli official has told reuters there were no negotations under way. palestinian health officials say that at least 15 people were killed by an israeli attack on the densely populated jabalya by an israeli attack on the densely populated jabalia refugee camp in gaza. the un says more than 130,000 people in gaza have been displaced from their homes. that is some of the backdrop in terms of what is happening. israel is massing its forces around gaza. these are some of the live pictures.
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it says it has called up thousands of reservists. this hour, we'll have more analysis on the situation from our verify team. but we start our coverage with this report from our correspondent yolande knell. explosions. the heavy bombardment continues, volleys of palestinian rockets being fired from gaza. and israel is hitting back hard, saying hamas will pay the price for its surprise attack, the most deadly day the country has ever known. i'm really sorry that you have to go through this. for this man, the horror has been playing out on his family's whatsapp group. his relatives live next to gaza and on saturday his cousin hid from hamas gunmen in her home. i'm saying goodbye. she is sending this heart. and she is saying that... .."i'm not sure we're going to survive this." she did survive, but five members
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of the family are now missing, including her 80—year—old mother and children. they are thought to be among 100 hostages now being held in gaza. this video appears to show this boy, who is nine, being snatched. ido wants them released. just get them out of this confrontation. it is not for kids, it is not for other people. it is not for older people. i don't think there is any war ethics that were not violated here. even war has rules and ethics, limits. untiltoday, israel's security forces have been fighting militants holding out in the south of the country. this infiltration and its bloody aftermath are unprecedented. it is, by far, the worst day in israeli history. never before have so many israelis been killed by one single thing, let alone enemy activity on one day.
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and if you are americans and want to compare this to something in american history, then this could be a 9/11 and a pearl harbor wrapped into one. and in gaza, which has seen repeated rounds of deadly fighting with israel since hamas took over 16 years ago, this conflict feels dangerously intense. translation: now they are destroying homes without warning while people - are sleeping, with the aim to displace and destroy, and to uproot them from this land. however, we refuse to be uprooted. we have firm roots in this land. hamas now says that the latest air strikes here have killed several hostages, but there is no sign of a letup in the exchange of fire. the human toll here is immense. yolande knell, bbc news, tel aviv. these scenes being watched in
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capitals around the world. we have been with the un secretary—general in a moment or two, but this the chief rabbi because a vigil being held opposite downing street here in london, he was saying earlier that everyjewish family in the uk has been affected by these events. let's listen in. it been affected by these events. let's listen in. , ., ., , ., listen in. it is a no state solution because they — listen in. it is a no state solution because they want _ listen in. it is a no state solution because they want to drive - listen in. it is a no state solution because they want to drive us i listen in. it is a no state solution i because they want to drive us from our land and this is what they have proven over the past few days. the name hamas is introduced to us at the beginning of our tour of reading which we are currently commencing. in hebrew means violence. that is what hamas is about. violence, drug, terrorism. to carry out horrific inhumane acts. what is the idea is the israel defence forces there to defend jews, to defend israel. 0n defend jews, to defend israel. on one side it is a war against
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civilians, every man woman and child, innocent civilians are on the front line of this war. as far as israel is consigned to concerned all at once to his protected civilians and attacked the murderers wherever they might be. at the beginning of they might be. at the beginning of the book which we now commence, pc, that darkness has transformed into light. chaos and confusion is transformed into order and peace. and in addition, beastie reality is transformed into humanity. 0ur transformed into humanity. our history shows that periods of darkness do become great periods of light. that periods of confusion and chaos do pave the way for order and for peace. and that is our prayer right now that the darkness we are enduring will lead to light. that the chaos the confusion, the bitterness, the morning and the grief will be replaced by peace. and
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that the beastie reality of some others will be tracked by the humanity that we show that all decent human being show and may this sad and tragic. be over soon. cheering their pictures opposite of downing street and the chief rabbi talking there. as we were seeing little earlier he was saying that every jewish family in the uk has been affected in one way or another. i have three words to tell you. the
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people _ i have three words to tell you. the people here in london that came here with the _ people here in london that came here with the israeli flags supporting the state of israel in this moment are true _ the state of israel in this moment are true friends to the state of israel. — are true friends to the state of israel. but _ are true friends to the state of israel, but also true friends of values — israel, but also true friends of values 0t— israel, but also true friends of values. of the value of life, of peace — values. of the value of life, of peace. people don't really care about — peace. people don't really care about the — peace. people don't really care about the future of our nation, our homeland — about the future of our nation, our homeland israel. thank you so much for coming _ homeland israel. thank you so much for coming here today. this is not easy— for coming here today. this is not easy times — for coming here today. this is not easy times for us. we all stand together— easy times for us. we all stand together after the last horrific 48 hours _ together after the last horrific 48 hours we — together after the last horrific 48 hours. we all know people that are on the _ hours. we all know people that are on the battlefield at the moment but you share _ on the battlefield at the moment but you share with us your love to lsraet — you share with us your love to lsraet i— you share with us your love to israel. i want to thank each one of you and _ israel. i want to thank each one of you and i— israel. i want to thank each one of you and i would like to think this amazing — you and i would like to think this amazing leadership of this wonderful jewish— amazing leadership of this wonderful jewish community. this zionist
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jewish— jewish community. this zionist jewish community. this zionist jewish community starting from the chief rabbi. through the organisations. the leaders of the organisations. the leaders of the organisations that are here. since the war— organisations that are here. since the war started, 48 hours ago, it seems _ the war started, 48 hours ago, it seems like — the war started, 48 hours ago, it seems like forever now. so many whatsapp — seems like forever now. so many whatsapp messages, so many phone calls of— whatsapp messages, so many phone calls of people asking one thing. how can— calls of people asking one thing. how can i— calls of people asking one thing. how can i help you stop how can we deliver— how can i help you stop how can we deliver support? what would you like us to do _ deliver support? what would you like us to do it _ deliver support? what would you like us to do. it looks like everyone received — us to do. it looks like everyone received the higher duty in israel to come — received the higher duty in israel to come and do the reserve service. it to come and do the reserve service. it seems _ to come and do the reserve service. it seems everyone here is not fighting — it seems everyone here is not fighting for israel. it because it is clear— fighting for israel. it because it is clear at— fighting for israel. it because it is clear at the moment that it is a fight _ is clear at the moment that it is a fight between good and evil. and good _ fight between good and evil. and good will— fight between good and evil. and good will prevail. i know how much this community cares about israel. i
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know— this community cares about israel. i know how— this community cares about israel. i know how much you feel pain for the division _ know how much you feel pain for the division in _ know how much you feel pain for the division in israel. but this is a time — division in israel. but this is a time of— division in israel. but this is a time of unity. this is time that all all israelis — time of unity. this is time that all all israelis and all they produce stand _ all israelis and all they produce stand together as one big family. we have a _ stand together as one big family. we have a beautiful song in hebrew... we don't _ have a beautiful song in hebrew... we don't have another homeland. we only have _ we don't have another homeland. we only have the state of israel. the only have the state of israel. the onlyjewish state and the only homeland of the jewish people. you stand _ homeland of the jewish people. you stand here _ homeland of the jewish people. you stand here with us to support our wonderful— stand here with us to support our wonderful brave soldiers. we are 'ust wonderful brave soldiers. we are just starting to hear about the amazing — just starting to hear about the amazing brief stories of people fighting — amazing brief stories of people fighting over 1000 terrorists walking _ fighting over 1000 terrorists walking into houses. this barbaric behaviour— walking into houses. this barbaric behaviour of hamas, we will never let them _ behaviour of hamas, we will never let them when! and israel will when.
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this is— let them when! and israel will when. this is the _ let them when! and israel will when. this is the word of all of the people _ this is the word of all of the people that support the free world, all the _ people that support the free world, all the people that support democracy and all the people that support— democracy and all the people that support the jewish life and in the jewish— support the jewish life and in the jewish state of israel, we all one, we all— jewish state of israel, we all one, we all stand together with the idf soldiers _ we all stand together with the idf soldiers and i want to thank you all for everything you did and everything you will do because it will be _ everything you will do because it will be a — everything you will do because it will be a long battle, but we will win it _ will be a long battle, but we will win it. ., ., , will be a long battle, but we will win it. . . , , ., win it. that was the israel ambassador _ win it. that was the israel ambassador to _ win it. that was the israel ambassador to london . win it. that was the israel - ambassador to london addressing win it. that was the israel _ ambassador to london addressing that vigil there. we were hearing a little earlier that the leaders from various european countries including the uk would have a phone call later this evening to discuss events in israel. let's turn to some of the politics that we have been hearing the last little while. the uk foreign secretary james cleverly has said the government will continue reviewing its support of israel. this afternoon, the prime minister
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chaired a cobra meeting where we assess the situation on the ground. we reaffirmed our support to israel in its self—defense against this terrorist attack perpetrated by hamas against unarmed civilians in many instances. i've been speaking with foreign ministers from around the region and beyond. the prime minister has engaged with the israeli prime minister and will be engaging with our allies. this is an ongoing situation and of course we will be reviewing our support to israel and of course british nationals in israel as the situation progresses. james cleverly, some of the politics they are. we are expecting in the next 15 minutes to hear from the un secretary—general. his thoughts on the growing situation on the ground in terms of the events we are seeing. let's bring you some live pictures, those continuing strikes
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over gaza city. you can seejust in the bottom right corner some of the fires as a result. more than 1000 targets, israel is saying, hit in gaza. those some of the live pictures. as well as watching events there on the grounds on gaza and the politics, let's take a closer look at the music festival in israel that was targeted over the weekend by hamas leaving so many people dead. survivors who hit in bushes and orchards at the festival site near the border with gaza have called it a massacre. i rolled a fair correspondent have been looking at the videos from that attacked to piece together what actually happened. just a warning before we go to it, some viewers may find the content distressing. brute go to it, some viewers may find the content distressing.— content distressing. we have been lookin: content distressing. we have been looking closer _ content distressing. we have been looking closer detail _ content distressing. we have been looking closer detail at _ content distressing. we have been looking closer detail at the - looking closer detail at the shocking events earlier on on saturday morning you can see people dancing at the nova music festival with no inkling of the horror that
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will unfold. ubc verify has established this was taken at sunrise on saturday. it is all happening very, very close to the border between israel and gaza. the first sign anything was wrong came around seven in the morning. if we look at that video again, you can see there is a man who is looking up into the sky. he has seen something. we don't know exactly what he is looking at, but there are suggestions it could be small explosions from israeli air defences trying to neutralise a barrage of incoming rocket fire. then we have this. posted at 930 in the morning local time and it seems to show the security at the event trying to get people to leave as quickly as possible. then, here, you get a sense of the panic, the fear and urgency as people flee for their lives through the fields. next, i want to show you some distressing footage from the dash cam of a car
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parked at the edge of the festival site. filmjust parked at the edge of the festival site. film just before nine in the morning, you see this gun man taking a young man who appears to have been wounded. it goes on to show a man sheltering under the car and you see him being shot. then another video apparently taken by palestinians who were either part of the attack or accompanying the attackers. it has come to encapsulate the absolute terror of what happened. she is 25 years old, had been at the festival and she is pleading for her life as she is kidnapped along with her boyfriend. the reuters news agency spoke to her friend who boyfriend. the reuters news agency spoke to herfriend who had been messaging her untiljust before she was captured. messaging her until 'ust before she was capturedh was captured. terrorised. it's... i don'tthink_ was captured. terrorised. it's. .. i don't think anyone _ was captured. terrorised. it's. .. i don't think anyone has _ was captured. terrorised. it's. .. i don't think anyone has ever - was captured. terrorised. it's. .. i don't think anyone has ever felt l don't think anyone has ever felt such— don't think anyone has ever felt such terror— don't think anyone has ever felt such terror and such helplessness when _ such terror and such helplessness when you — such terror and such helplessness when you are taking away from your boyfriend, _ when you are taking away from your boyfriend, your loved ones to
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someplace and i can't imagine what she's— someplace and i can't imagine what she's going — someplace and i can't imagine what she's going through right now travelling with those terrorists in gaza _ travelling with those terrorists in gaza. waiting for someone to send help _ gaza. waiting for someone to send help we _ gaza. waiting for someone to send hel-. ~ ., �* , gaza. waiting for someone to send hel-. , ~' ., gaza. waiting for someone to send hel-. , ,, ., , ., help. we don't yet know exactly how many peeple — help. we don't yet know exactly how many peeple were — help. we don't yet know exactly how many people were kidnapped - help. we don't yet know exactly how many people were kidnapped from i help. we don't yet know exactly how i many people were kidnapped from the festival or killed. but this is drone footage of the aftermath of the assault and gives a glimpse of the assault and gives a glimpse of the absolute ferocity of it these are cars young people came to the festival in. you can imagine looking forward to a weekend of music and dancing, never in their worst nightmares imagining what was to come. let me take you back to the live pictures because as has been the case throughout the course of today's programme we have seen so many explosions there in gaza. even since the start of this programme in the last two and half hours. that has been the continued pathway through the course of today with israel continuing to target various
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sites in the gaza strip. they are military action against a whole variety of hamas targets and of course, that, alongside the cutting off of the gaza strip, the announcement from the defence minister a little earlier that the whole of the gaza strip would be cut off. no food, no power, new water. so that, just part of what israel implementing in the wake of those dreadful scenes through the course of the weekend. 0ur managing director at the washington institute and a former senior director of middle east affairs at the national security is in the studio with us. and expert in arab—israeli relations welcome to the programme. just the headline thought as you see these ongoing scenes, and israel and gaza? 0bviously ongoing scenes, and israel and gaza? obviously the scale of the attack on israel is unprecedented for israel. many israelis having died just in that
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one attack has died during the course of the second intifada as well as the shocking failure of intelligence of security. so i think israel feels compelled to respond in a major way to somehow cripple hamas, smash hamas. the reality is the options are few for israel. 0ptions the options are few for israel. options for doing this are not necessarily any better than they were a week ago. so there's a real dilemma now for israel both in terms of immediate response but also longer—term question of how you live with this problem. you longer-term question of how you live with this problem.— with this problem. you roll in multi-le with this problem. you roll in multiple points _ with this problem. you roll in multiple points there - with this problem. you roll in multiple points there so - with this problem. you roll in multiple points there so let's| with this problem. you roll in - multiple points there so let's take a stage by stage of the next few minutes because you talk about the unprecedented nature of the attack over the weekend and that surely was the case, but do you then anticipate over the coming days and unprecedented response as well? i unprecedented response as well? i would anticipate that. if you listen to israeli officials that is the sense you get. they are also under intense pressure to deliver that kind of response given the trauma over the last few days. i think we
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will see, very significant response, that outstrips what we have seen in 2019 or previous gaza conflicts. again, even though this was a terrible attack on the options that israel has are not great options. so they will have to decide what are they will have to decide what are the opening days. in they will have to decide what are the opening days.— the opening days. in terms of o ations the opening days. in terms of options they _ the opening days. in terms of options they have _ the opening days. in terms of options they have already - the opening days. in terms of. options they have already settled long, cutting off the gaza strip, we have art her criticism of that as being collective punishment, your assessment of the options they have chosen so far? i assessment of the options they have chosen so far?— chosen so far? i think these are tactics. tactics _ chosen so far? i think these are tactics. tactics that _ chosen so far? i think these are tactics. tactics that go - chosen so far? i think these are tactics. tactics that go along . chosen so far? i think these are i tactics. tactics that go along with a military operation. i'm sure israel will not intend to target civilians. i think we can be sure of that. the ultimate tension i think is to destroy hamas's latour infrastructure, their ability to rule in gaza and that will require very intensive operations. [30 rule in gaza and that will require very intensive operations. do you think there _ very intensive operations. do you think there is _ very intensive operations. do you think there is a _ very intensive operations. do you think there is a fundamental - very intensive operations. do you think there is a fundamental stepj think there is a fundamental step change that has happened? the different stages benjamin netanyahu has been encouraged by others to take on hamas, to wipe out that
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organisation and has chosen not to. to choose different tactics, to have containment. do you anticipate all of that now has changed? is going after hamas with the intention of trying, we will talk with effectiveness in a moment, but trying to bite them out? i effectiveness in a moment, but trying to bite them out?- effectiveness in a moment, but trying to bite them out? i think so. before this — trying to bite them out? i think so. before this attack, _ trying to bite them out? i think so. before this attack, israel _ trying to bite them out? i think so. | before this attack, israel was under the impression that hamas was seeking a modus effendi with them you had 15—17,000 gazans coming into israel on work authorisation and relative quiet for a couple of years. clearly, there will be no return to that status quo. i think israel has regarded that now as something that cannot be re—established but something completely different is required. all of which as we continue to see those pictures and you can hear, that's why you turned around. you can hearjust the sound of that blast. and we have seen thatjust continually through the course of
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overnight and today. as you watch that, it is inevitable, is it not, that, it is inevitable, is it not, that the military side of this takes overfor that the military side of this takes over for at least the next few days if not weeks. i over for at least the next few days if rrot weeks-— if not weeks. i think that is right. i think if not weeks. i think that is right. i think there _ if not weeks. i think that is right. i think there will _ if not weeks. i think that is right. i think there will be _ if not weeks. i think that is right. i think there will be a _ if not weeks. i think that is right. i think there will be a concerted i i think there will be a concerted effort to root out hamas. hamas is very, very deeply into the gaza strip and they will use every tactic they can including using human shields, isolating themselves and things like hospitals and schools to prevent israel from doing just that. prevent israel from really getting at their leadership, infrastructure and so forth. some of their leadership is also overseas, let's not forget. so that causes some wider problems for israel on how do you address that problem. you talked about problems. _ you address that problem. you talked about problems, the _ you address that problem. you talked about problems, the obvious - you address that problem. you talked about problems, the obvious problem here, strategically, tactically for israel is the fact that you have perhaps even 100 hostages, a very different dynamic at play this time. israel will have to decide whether
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their priority will be trying to free those hostages or whether they will try to conduct military operations understanding that harm may come to those hostages it is an normally difficult and painful decision that israeli leaders have to make in these circumstances. would you anticipate some sort of ground provision? i would you anticipate some sort of ground provision?— would you anticipate some sort of ground provision? i think it is hard to sa . i ground provision? i think it is hard to say- lthink— ground provision? i think it is hard to say. i think if— ground provision? i think it is hard to say. i think if you _ ground provision? i think it is hard to say. i think if you really - ground provision? i think it is hard to say. i think if you really want i to say. i think if you really want to say. i think if you really want to root out hamas but certainly is the application that there would have to be some ground element at least to what israel is doing. rather than simply an air campaign. but what background element looks like, it is hard to say. the but what background element looks like, it is hard to say.— like, it is hard to say. the risks of that, if— like, it is hard to say. the risks of that, if that _ like, it is hard to say. the risks of that, if that is _ like, it is hard to say. the risks of that, if that is what - like, it is hard to say. the risks of that, if that is what they - of that, if that is what they choose? , ., , , of that, if that is what they choose?— of that, if that is what they choose? , ., , , ., ., choose? obviously if you go in on the ground _ choose? obviously if you go in on the ground it _ choose? obviously if you go in on the ground it is _ choose? obviously if you go in on the ground it is a _ choose? obviously if you go in on the ground it is a much _ the ground it is a much more difficult type of operation because this is a highly, densely populated area, highly urbanised area. so it is no small task to go in on the ground and try to find the people you are looking for, try to find the hamas infrastructure. we you are looking for, try to find the hamas infrastructure.— you are looking for, try to find the
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hamas infrastructure. we are waiting to hear from — hamas infrastructure. we are waiting to hear from the _ hamas infrastructure. we are waiting to hear from the un _ to hearfrom the un secretary—general, i cannot see any pictures of that just yet, but secretary—general, i cannot see any pictures of thatjust yet, but it is anticipated he will speak in the next couple of minutes. in terms of what the international community should be focused on, what do you think should be done as we speak? i think should be done as we speak? i think there needs to be as much support for israel as possible. israel has suffered a terrorist attack that would traumatise any of our countries. so providing them assistance, giving them the space diplomatically to do what they need to do, i think will be the first order of business in washington and may be and european capitals as well. i think there has to be some accountability for notjust hamas, obviously, anyone who has not designated hamas as a terrorist group should but also backers as well. for example i wrong. == group should but also backers as well. for example i wrong. -- iran. just word — well. for example i wrong. -- iran. just word from _ well. for example i wrong. -- iran. just word from the _ well. for example i wrong. -- iran. just word from the israeli _ well. for example i wrong. -- iran. just word from the israeli airfares l just word from the israeli airfares it carried out one of the largest ever air strikes against hamas according to israel military is
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saying it struck at least 2400 hamas targets today alone. so that, some of the latest details from the israel defence force. i will be back with more development here injust force. i will be back with more development here in just a force. i will be back with more development here injust a moment development here in just a moment or two. hello. it was a real weekend of contrast. some exceptionally wet weather across scotland, in fact the wettest spot having nearly 180 millimetres of rain. so, there are still some flood warnings in force — that means danger to life. details on the website, including numerous other flood warnings. and there are more weather warnings out for tomorrow, but for today the weather front is still with us, but it's a weak affair, so a respite from the rain for many parts of scotland, just dribs and drabs on this weather front remaining. it will tend to pep up as it pushes north later. but for most other parts it is largely dry, bright and sunny spells, quite warm, temperatures again knocking on the door of what we saw on sunday for northern ireland, england and wales. but overnight temperatures not falling
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back much, but the misty low cloud around the coasts will creep inland, one band of rain pushes into the northern isles and we will see another following suit. this is the warning in time for tomorrow, really, across western scotland. but given all the cloud again tonight, it will be a mild one for all. a ridge of high pressure close to the south means another fine and dry day for most of england and wales. cloudier skies coming into northern ireland eventually, but again most of the rainfall — 15—20 millimetres quite widely, but as much as 40 or 50 millimetres could fall over hills and again that is a concern as the ground is saturated, the rivers are full and cannot take any more at the moment, so we need to be aware there could be further flooding as we go through into tuesday as well, but further south it is a very different story and some places haven't had any rain at all so far this october. as we go through tuesday night and into wednesday, it is likely some areas further south will see some rain —
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heavy rain, potentially — pushing through wales into the midlands and then easing further southwards, which means drier weather on wednesday for scotland, drier and clearer with sunshine across northern ireland and northern england. a fresher feel here, though, still quite warm, despite the increased cloud and some rain further south. that weather front hangs around in the south through thursday, potentially peps up through friday, joining forces with low pressure to the south, low pressure to the north as well, so overall an unsettled picture towards the end of the week as well, and looking to get fresher, even in the south, this weekend.
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this is bbc news. the headlines: israel orders a "complete siege" of the hamas?controlled gaza strip, cutting off power and food. the european commission also suspends all palestinian aid. israel describes saturday's assault as its 9/11. at least 700 israelis are dead, including 260 at a music festival. rocket attacks from gaza continue, with explosions heard injerusalem. the uk and us confirm they have citizens dead or missing. gaza is now underfrequent bombardment with air strikes hitting densley populated areas.
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the health ministry there says 560 people in the territory are dead. this is the scene live in gaza as darkness falls. israel's prime minister says his country's response will "change the middle east". we're standing by in new york, where the united nations secretary general is soon expected to address the situation. this is the scene in gaza city. 0ut this is the scene in gaza city. out of the corner of my eye i can see the united nations secretary general. �* , ., a, ., general. let's go live. more than 2500 injured- — general. let's go live. more than 2500 injured. sadly, _ general. let's go live. more than 2500 injured. sadly, these - general. let's go live. more than i 2500 injured. sadly, these numbers are expected to rise as the attacks
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