as fighting intensifies in the middle east, the international monetary fund's chief economist tells us whether geopolitical tensions could weigh on economic growth. and china's largest property developer faces a key test next week. we look at the implications for the world's second largest economy. hello and welcome to asia business report. we are going to begin the programme with the world bank and the international monetary fund, which are holding their annual meetings in morocco. the imf�*s chief economist says the global economy is limping along but not sprinting.

he is also concerned about economic uncertainty triggered from the conflict between israel and hamas as the death toll continues to rise. the bbc�*s economics editor faisal islam sat down with him and asked if the global economy was heading in the right direction. well, things are going in the right direction. what we are seeing is, despite these large shocks that you describe, the world economy is still standing. no global recession, you know, no massive slowdown that would put us into huge unemployment rates. we haven't seen that. we have seen a surge in inflation, but inflation is sort of coming down now, both headline inflation and core inflation, so that's the good news, things are improving, the global economy has been resilient. at the same time, the growth numbers we have, around 3% this year, 2.9% for next year, this is way below historical average. so the global economy is limping along, its not sprinting but it's been resilient. right. do you from this point see

there are areas where you have been disappointed? i know china's growth for example been a disappointment this year. so the other story which is really important is divergence. what we are saying is the number hasn't changed very much from our previous round of forecasts back injuly, or even april, we were around 3% for 2023 in july as well but there has been quite a lot of reshuffling, and the reshuffling, we see some countries doing better than expected, the us among those, japan has been doing better than expected among advanced economies. among emerging market economies, a number of them have been doing better than expected, india, brazil, russia, and then there are a bunch of countries that have been doing worse. among them, the euro area has been revised down about 0.2%. in china, 0.2 percentage points. so we have this reconfiguration, countries are in a different space.

you said russia has been doing better. our sanction not affecting rush as much as you would expect?— affecting rush as much as you would expect? well, sanctions have been _ would expect? well, sanctions have been affecting _ would expect? well, sanctions have been affecting russia - would expect? well, sanctions| have been affecting russia and russia has been doing relatively poorly in 2022—23 but not as bad as was initially expected. now some of it is coming in large part from the fact that really it is running a war economy at the moment with a lot of fiscal spending, so there is a lot of support, a lot of transfers, a lot of income being distributed around to support the war effort and thatis to support the war effort and that is helping to prop up the growth numbers, but in the case of russia again, if you take the medium—term perspective, and you look at their medium—term growth prospects, they are coming down dramatically. we are now projecting their medium—term growth might be around 0.9% a year. it used to be around 1.8% a year, so almost half of what it used to be. all this week we have been keeping a very close watch

on oil as well as gas prices, in line with our coverage, russia energy week begins in moscow today. president vladimir putin and the prime minister of iraq will take part in the plenary session. 4,000 guests from over 60 countries are expected to participate, according to the organisers. earlier this week, oil prices initiallyjumped on concerns that the conflict in israel and gaza could disrupt output from the middle east. morgan stanley said the near—term risk to oil supply was low, but that could change if the conflict spread to other countries. let's turn out to china's property sector because next week country garden could be joining a growing list of chinese developers that have failed to honour their debts. country garden is due to make a $15 million payment to bondholders on the 17th of october, and if it misses that deadline, all its international bonds could be considered in default. the property giant has already warned it expects it will not be able to meet all of its international debt obligations within the relevant grace periods. our business reporter has more on china's deepening property crisis.

they were once two of china's biggest and most successful companies, building houses for ordinary people who invested their life savings in a place they could call home. now the writings on the wall with country garden admitting it can't pay back its debt. the company, china's largest property developer, has roughly $187 billion in liabilities. country garden has been selling off assets to try and raise cash. it has also been negotiating with creditors to restructure its debt, and delay payments. the problem is it's apartments aren't selling, one of the few ways it can raise funds. pre—sales on unfinished apartments, an important indicator for future revenue, are down 81% from the same time last year. evergrande is another giant property developer. it has even more debt than country garden,

$300 billion worth of liabilities in china alone. authorities have launched a criminal investigation into its billionaire founder. it has been trying to restructure its debt for two years, but those discussions haven't gone well, and now investors say the company is so big and so indebted, it is at risk of what they call "a messy collapse". the struggles of both these companies have put more pressure on china's economy, which is already facing a widespread property slump, a decline in exports and weak consumer spending after covid—i9. even though both country garden and evergrande were thought of as too big to fail, there is no sign beijing will step in to save them. for now, beijing has asked both companies to prioritise completing and delivering the homes they have promised to build. now we were just told that country garden has not defaulted so far.

the crisis in the property sector in china has been one of the primary concerns as the country looks to try to boost its flagging economy. it is a story we have been tracking closely, and as you heard, country garden has not defaulted so far. i have been speaking to an economist from moody's analytics, who explained what a default could really mean for the greater economy. the concern also from your reporting is that notjust country garden but also evergrande and other current property developers, if they continue to default on their international obligations, and their offshore bonds payments, that leads to, essentially, a lack of liquidity, because the burden of financing will turn to the onshore lenders, such as domestic banks, and also the property buyers

that have to continue to find ends and repay their loans at this time. so the longer the uncertainty goes, the debt burden could actually lead to a problem within the domestic market, and that is where we are really concerned, as i have mentioned, the crisis of confidence that could really occur in the western market is something that we are watching very closely at moody's analytics. now to new york, where sam bankman—fried's fraud trial has been taking place. he has pleaded not guilty to fraud and conspiracy charges related to the collapse of ftx, the now bankrupt crypto currency exchange he was running. thejury has been hearing testimony from his former colleagues, including his one—time girlfriend caroline ellison. 0ur north american business correspondent erin delmore was in the court when she testified, and explains her significance in this case.

the government is calling at least three key witnesses in this case, but caroline ellison is their star. that's because she is the former ceo of alameda research, the crypto hedge fund that sam bankman—fried founded, also the former romantic partner of sam bankman—fried and she spoke about both roles today. the two were close, having dated off and on over a couple of years, and having lived together in a penthouse in the bahamas with other executives from both companies. but after arriving in court on tuesday, ms alison was asked to look out into the courtroom and point out mr bankman—fried, and she couldn't immediately recognise him. she took more than ten seconds to stand, look, turn, crane her head, before finally identifying mr bankman—fried in a suit. in her testimony, she described feeling deferential to mr bankman—fried and at that

time she felt awkward, both because she was dating her boss, and because she felt neglected in their personal relationship. she also said that she ran all major decisions by him. when asked, did you commit any crimes while at alameda research, she answered, yes, we did, including mr bankman—fried. ms ellison's testimony squarely put mr bankman—fried in the decision—maker's chair. she will be back in the stand on wednesday. will be back in the stand on wednesday-— wednesday. erin delmore reporting- _ in other news making headlines before we go, birkenstock is set to make its debut on the new york stock exchange later today. the german orthopaedic footwear is expected to price its ipo at $46 per share. some people have described them as the world's ugliest shoe. nevertheless, it has become a global mega brand, and this year received a further boost when they were featured in the hit film, barbie. that is all we have with you for this edition of asia

business report. do stay on with bbc news. thanks for watching. bbc news, bringing you different stories from across the uk. doug has cystic fibrosis. ii doug has cystic fibrosis. 11 years ago, he was on a waiting list, desperately needing a new pair of lungs. list, desperately needing a new pair of lunge— pair of lungs. yeah, you can sa will pair of lungs. yeah, you can say will have _ pair of lungs. yeah, you can say will have it, _ pair of lungs. yeah, you can say will have it, will - pair of lungs. yeah, you can say will have it, will it - pair of lungs. yeah, you canj say will have it, will it work, but you can also say with very, very great certainty, if i don't have it, i will not be here anymore.— don't have it, i will not be here anymore. three years ago in 2020, the — here anymore. three years ago in 2020, the law— here anymore. three years ago in 2020, the law changed - here anymore. three years ago in 2020, the law changed so i in 2020, the law changed so that all adults in england are now considered as having agreed to donate their organs when they die. unless they've recorded a decision not to. but despite the law change, the consent rate is down. it’s despite the law change, the consent rate is down. it's very secial consent rate is down. it's very special to _ consent rate is down. it's very special to die _ consent rate is down. it's very special to die in _ consent rate is down. it's very special to die in the _ special to die in the circumstance that allows you to become a donor. it's probably only about i% of deaths in the uk. you are much more likely to

need a transplant in your life than you are to die in the circumstances that allows you to become a donor. i wouldn't have seen _ to become a donor. i wouldn't have seen my _ to become a donor. i wouldn't have seen my son's _ to become a donor. i wouldn't have seen my son's birth. - to become a donor. i wouldn't have seen my son's birth. i i have seen my son's birth. i wouldn't _ have seen my son's birth. i wouldn't be able to be part of my family, be with my friends. my donor's family were presented with such a difficult choice. — presented with such a difficult choice, at such a commit such a difficult — choice, at such a commit such a difficult time, and to have the courage — difficult time, and to have the courage to make that decision is courage to make that decision isjusi— courage to make that decision isjust remarkable, and i will never— isjust remarkable, and i will never be _ isjust remarkable, and i will never be able to explain how grateful _ never be able to explain how grateful i am.— never be able to explain how grateful i am. for more stories from across — grateful i am. for more stories from across the _ grateful i am. for more stories from across the uk, _ grateful i am. for more stories from across the uk, head - grateful i am. for more stories from across the uk, head to i grateful i am. for more storiesl from across the uk, head to the bbc news website. i'm zof with the catch up. tonight, holly willoughby quits this morning, labour comes to liverpool, and something strange falling from the sky. but first, our top story. an update on the ongoing

war in the middle east, there's been massive air strikes overnight in the southern israeli city of ashkelon, after hamas militants warned people to leave by 5pm, local time. israel says it is continuing to bomb the gaza strip, after hitting 200 targets overnight, and hamas has taken dozens of hostages, saying it won't negotiate until the end of the battle. lots of people have been killed in gaza and israel by the strikes so far. next, the labour conference is under way in liverpool, and keir starmer has said a labour government would reform the nhs, put more police officers on the streets, build more towns and 1.5 million new homes. the day wasn't all smooth sailing though, as he was interrupted by a glittery protester, who was later arrested. it didn't deter him from his main message, though. some other stories now. holly willoughby has announced she will be quitting this morning after 14 years.

she told fans on her instagram she feels she had to make this decision for her and herfamily. last week, a man was charged over an alleged plot to kidnap her. and time now for ten seconds of spiders, brace yourself, that's right, they've been falling from the sky in some parts of california. people there have been spotting clumps of webs, as you can see, on people's cars. that would be absolutely terrifying. i would be no good in california. if i see a spider in my room, i literally run a mile! you're all caught up now. see you later. hello and welcome to sportsday with me, sarah mulkerrins.

uefa confirm the uk and ireland will host the 2028 euros, with a new stadium in prospect for northern ireland. england bounce back at the cricket world cup. dawid malan stars with the bat in their victory over bangladesh. we speak to former fi champion nigel mansell on his memories of success, ahead of selling some of his most famous possessions. lovely to have you with us. we start with football, where it's been confirmed that euro 2028 will be hosted by the uk and ireland. the five—nation bid ran unopposed and european football's governing body, uefa, confirmed the selection on tuesday morning. that was in switzerland. wembley is set to host the final with cardiff's principality stadium likely