it would be a mistake for israel to occupy gaza again. gaza faces a deepening humanitarian crisis as essential supplies dwindle, amid a near—total israeli blockade and ongoing airstrikes. the un chief warns the conflict risks tipping the middle east into "the abyss" and urges both parties back from the brink. i'm helena humphrey, thanks forjoining me. the israeli prime minister, benjamin netanyahu, says his military is ready to begin a ground offensive at any moment aimed at crushing hamas. an estimated 300 thousand israeli troops are massing near gaza,

but israel has given no indication of when an attack might begin. here you can see tanks arriving on sunday. mr netanyahu has held the first meeting of his emergency cabinet since hamas fighters killed more than 1,400 israelis and took more than 150 people hostage. meanwhile, israeli airstrikes on gaza continue. israel says it is targeting hamas positions. hamas is designated as a terror organisation by many western governments, including the us and uk. gazan health officials say the number of palestinians killed has risen to 2,670 with 9,600 others wounded. hamas says less than half of the 1.1 million people living in northern gaza have now moved south in the last 48 hours, after israel's warning for civlians to leave. the united nations says hospital fuel reserves will run out in about 2k hours, possibly endangering thousands of patients.

in the last few hours, un secretary general antonio guterres has called for israel to allow the immediate delivery of humanitarian aid to gaza, saying the region was "on the verge of the abyss". hundreds of tonnes of aid from several countries is currently at the closed rafah border crossing between gaza and egypt. will run out in about 2k hours, possibly endangering it's also where scores of foreign nationals, including us citizens, are waiting, hoping to leave gaza. us secretary of state antony blinken, after his diplomatic visit to egypt on sunday, said he's "confident" the border could partially open soon. we'll have more from inside gaza injust a moment. but first, the bbc�*s jeremy bowen with the latest in israel. along the border, it looked like the eve of battle. in the next few days, israel will send its armed forces into the gaza strip. israel declared its

war aims even before the tanks arrived here. first, demolishing hamas, so it can never be a threat again. and avenging more than 1,300 people, mostly its own civilians, massacred by hamas. in the last few days, the border has become an armed camp. israel says its offensive is anchored in justice, security and morality. it has mobilised 360,000 reservists. border communities, like kibbutz kfar aza, that were barely defended when hamas stormed in, are now staging areas for the offensive. 0ne certainty is that, when israel's soldiers move forward, many more palestinian civilians will die. gaza was pounded again — the eighth day in a row.

mohammed's sons, daughter and cousins have been killed, eight of them, with three bodies still trapped in the rubble. they were children, he said, they didn't carry guns. many palestinians see the body bags and believe israel's campaign against hamas is also aimed at forcing them out of gaza for good. the price of losing, said this hard—line israeli politician, is for gaza to get smaller, that is the language palestinians understand. the hamas massacres, and the response from israel they have unleashed, destroyed what seemed to be the status quo. fear is already a winner. the soldiers look like they're

ready for whatever comes next. in tel aviv, the war cabinet has been meeting at the ministry of defence, finalising details, making decisions. there are big questions, though — how long the operation will take, and what happens afterwards. this afternoon, israeli troops patrolled the gaza boundary. very soon, they will cross it, as this long conflict hurtles into its next destructive chapter. jeremy bowen, bbc news, southern israel. as civilians in gaza continue to seek safety in the south, the city of khan younis has seen its population more than double nearly overnight. more than one million people are now there. people have been queing for water, after the us said israeli officials had recently "turned the water pipe back on in southern gaza". there is also limited phone and internet connection in parts of the territory. 0ur correspondentjon donnison

has more on the impact of this week's events, on one resident of gaza. we are evacuating, we are leaving our houses... bisan 0wda is a 25—year—old film—maker in gaza. she's been posting a video diary about life under fire. ..and other safe places, but there's no safe places in gaza. last monday, israel warned people in her neighbourhood to flee their homes. bisan decided to head for shelter at a nearby hospital. pray for us. and later that night, israel did bomb the ramal district of gaza city, reducing much of it to rubble. this is the first bottle of water that i'm going to drink from it. with a complete blockade of gaza in place, bisan, like millions of others, has been running out of basic necessities. there is no food, there is nothing. then on friday, another warning from the skies — israel dropping leaflets,

telling more than a million people in the north of gaza to flee to the south. and so they went, in their hundreds of thousands. but not bisan — she and her family decided to stay put in the north, and later that day, another update from the hospital. do you remember when i said that they did push people to evacuate from the northern to the southern areas via a safe route, as they said? ok, that was a trick, that was a trick. they targeted ambulances, cars and buses. israel says it's investigating what happened in an apparent air strike on the main road heading south. 0utside, look, there's no electricity at all. as bisan waits to see what the night will bring, she gives her own sign—off. it's now 10pm. i collect my stuff to my bag

in case we need to evacuate as fast as we can, if there was bombing around us or on us during the night hours. this is my daily routine. what about yours? tell me. jon donnison, bbc news. pray for us. well, israel says its looming ground invasion is meant to completely eliminate hamas from gaza. the israeli military occupied the enclave from 1967 until it withdrew in 2005. now, some voices in israel are calling for another occupation. but today, president biden warned israel off that path, and reaffirmed his commitment to a two—state solution. here he is speaking to scott pelley from our partners at cbs news. would you support israeli occupation of gaza at this point? i think it would be a big mistake. look, what happened in gaza in my view is hamas and the extreme elements of hamas don't represent

all the palestinian people. and i think that it would be a mistake for israel to occupy gaza again. but going in and taking out the extremists, the hezbollah up north, but hamas down south, is a necessary requirement. do you believe hamas must be eliminated entirely? yes, i do. but there needs to be a palestinian authority. there needs to be a path to a palestinian state. and you believe israel would pursue that after what's occurred? not now, not now. but i think israel understands that a significant portion of palestinian people do not share the views of hamas and hezbollah. earlier, i spoke to khaled elgindy, senior fellow

and director of the program on palestine and palestinian—israeli affairs at the middle east institute. khaled, wejust heard there from the us president, saying he doesn't want to see an occupation of the gaza strip. if hamas is removed from power, the stated aim from israel, what do you see in terms of who takes control? what happens next in the gaza strip? that's a question no—one knows the answer to. i'm fairly certain no—one in the israeli political or military leadership has any idea what that means, to eliminate hamas. my sense is it's likely an unattainable goal, the sort of thing that needs to be stated for

public consumption, but i'm not sure how meaningful it is. certainly the israelis have not planned for anything resembling a day after. you cannot bring the palestinian authority back into gaza on the backs of israeli tanks. it's already suffering from a serious legitimacy crisis among its people. that would seal its fate as a kind of collaborationist regime. the tragic reality is the israelis don't have an endgame beyond the military option, and nobody knows what comes next. before we even get to that stage, of course, we have got the present day reality. let's touch on that, then, the humanitarian situation inside gaza is dire. israeli troops are amassing close to gaza. what are you anticipating happening within gaza in the hours and days ahead? the thing to remember about the humanitarian situation is it was in large

part brought on by the us, the european union and the uk, when they gave israel a blank cheque to cut off the power, food, water electricity, to two million human beings. and have yet to call for a ceasefire, eight days in. so this humanitarian disaster, i think, is in large part the result of western inaction. also, just to point out something that was raised in the initial report. hamas is... sorry, israel is not bombing hamas targets only. israeli leaders, political and military leaders, say this repeatedly, i'm not sure why people don't want to listen. they are bombing civilian targets, they have said so repeatedly, and yet everyone is pretending they are fighting only hamas. we have seen civilian convoys

that were told to evacuate, bombed on the roads, trying to flee to safety. the reality is that nowhere is safe in gaza. for anyone. i want to ask you about the situation for the hostages as well, who we believe to be inside gaza. the un is calling on hamas to release all hostages. do you think there is any situation in which they heed that call? it's hard to imagine how that would happen. it's one of the few areas, i suppose, hamas has any sort of leverage. certainly, they should be released and returned safely. but i'm not sure hamas, being threatened with total annihilation, has any real incentive to do that. and what about the situation for the palestinians?

and securing their safety? washington has been pressing egypt to open its border crossing with the palestinian territory. if that happens, what could we see there? is there a risk for more difficulty, a refugee crisis potentially there as well? 0h, absolutely. i think that would be catastrophic. upwards of a million, two million palestinians to be expelled essentially from their homes yet again. 70% of gaza's population are actually refugees. and so palestinians have a long history. they know, in every instance in which they have been turned into refugees, they have never been allowed to return home. so i think most palestinians would reject that prospect. egypt has rejected it, because they also understand that there's no such thing as a temporary palestinian refugee problem. israel's history, i think,

makes that clear. it's quite reckless, frankly, for the international community, instead of urging israel to stop bombing civilians, to ask egypt to take in refugees that most people understand will never be allowed to return. senior fellow and director of the programme on palestine and palestinian israeli affairs at the middle east institute, thanks for being with us. thank you. around the world and across the uk. this is bbc news. let's look at some other stories making news. at least two people have been killed and more than 150 injured by a 6.3—magnitude earthquake in west afghanistan. residents in the city of herat said they had just begun to return to their homes after two previous powerful quakes when the latest tremors hit. more than 1,300 people were killed in last week's earthquakes.

at the scottish national party conference in aberdeen, the party signalled it would push for independence negotiations with the uk government, depending on the result of the next general election. the snp approved a motion which said winning a majority of scottish seats at the next election would be a mandate for holding a new referendum. officials at hong kong international airport have uncovered 11 kilograms of suspected cocaine hidden in the cushions of this electric wheelchair. the haul, worthjust over £1.2 million, or $1.11 million, was found when a 51—year—old man was going through customs on saturday from sint maarten. he has been arrested. you're live with bbc news. returning now to the conflict in the middle east. the israeli prime minister, benjamin netanyahu, has promised to destroy hamas, and his defence forces seem set for a major offensive into gaza. but what are the challenges israel's forces will face?

0ur defence correspondent jonathan beale has this assessment. this is who israel's now at war with. hamas, who last week crossed the border, solely focused on taking life, murdering women and children. for most, it was, in effect, a suicide mission. the left side of my head was hit with shrapnel from an rpg or a grenade, hard to say exactly what. got shot in my finger on my left hand, and a bullet got wedged in the left side of my neck. yoav, who grew up in london, was among the first israeli military casualties of this war. he won't be the last. we've been asked to hide his identity. he says israel's fighting an enemy unlike any conventional army. they have only one interest, which is to to killjews. there was no preservation

of their ability to go home afterwards. they were going to die doing whatever they wanted to do, and that meant killing as many people along the way, they'd die doing it. this isjust some of their arsenal. israel today displaying to journalists weapons they've seized. they say this is just 20% of the weapons hamas brought into israel, and it is just a fraction of what israeli forces will face when they go into gaza. israel says many of these are built in factories inside gaza itself. are you worried about israeli forces going in if they've got factories producing this? i'm not worried. the idf can deal with everything that stays in that room and more. but this is only a fraction of what they have. the tightly packed streets of gaza is where israel could soon be fighting, which hamas knows best.

it could be littered with booby traps and roadside bombs, and their network of hidden underground tunnels. brutal urban warfare can favour the defender. hamas still has one bargaining chip — more than 100 israeli hostages. 0ne israeli, who's helped negotiate prisoner exchanges in the past, is once again working his hamas contacts. they're still talking, but he's noted a dramatic change of mood. in the first days, they were boasting their bravery and their heroism and how they surprised israel. and in the last few days, the tone is very different. their tone is, "we're going to fight to the death, we're not afraid of dying". israel is preparing for a major offensive. but invasions are often easier to plan than to execute — and getting out harder than going in. jonathan beale, bbc

news, southern israel. as the fallout from the war continues, a civilian has been killed in israel by a missile fired from lebanon — the first to die on israel's northern border in the recent crisis. the group hezbollah, which has links to iran, says that it carried out the attack. israel says it's retaliating by striking targets in southern lebanon. 0ur middle east correspondent anna foster is on israel's border with lebanon, and sent us this report. israel says it's responded to multiple attacks from lebanon through the day. in a week that's seen daily exchanges, this is the largest. a builder was killed who was working on a home it's been nearly an hour now that we've heard continuing fire going overhead, from both directions. most of it seems to be going from the israeli side to the lebanese. we are hearing some return fire as well. we've taken cover in a forested area. it's a bit more solid,

offers a bit more protection. and we're continuing to hear these things going overhead all the time. earlier, the first civilian was killed on the northern border during this conflict. a builder who was working on a home in the village of shtula when an anti—tank missile from lebanon exploded nearby. we are now here in our houses, there is no alert when they anti—tank missile is coming out. there is no alert. it's very fast. we hear the whistle and then it's one minute, less. hezbollah and its allies have claimed today's attacks. israel says the blame goes to the highest levels. translation: the state - of lebanon bears responsibility for the firing conducted from its territory. both sides have reiterated that they don't want an escalation here. but after a day of constant exchanges, it's a dangerous moment.

more loudly than words — it's a dangerous moment. anna foster, bbc news, on the israel—lebanon border. to other news now, and in poland parliamentary elections have been taking place. poles have just finished casting their votes in what some have described as the most significant elections since the end of communism. the right—wing law and justice party is seeking to secure a third term in office, locked in a fierce battle with the liberal opposition, led by former european council president donald tusk. the first exit poll suggests the governing law and justice party may have lost its majority in parliament and that opposition parties may be able to form a coalition to force the government from power. 0ur correspondent sarah rainsford sent this update from warsaw. we were at the results event for the opposition coalition, the civic coalition, and donald tusk, the leader of the party, was greeted like a star. his name was cheered, people were cheering in the crowd.

there was an exit poll published on screen, and that was greeted with a big roar from the crowd. they are seeing this very much as a victory. it is just one exit poll but it does suggest the governing party, law and justice, although it won the most seats according to this poll, may not be able to form a coalition or reach a majority, whereas the opposition look like they could do exactly that. that's why this was like a victory party. it wasn't what people were predicting. this has always been a very close race but there was a huge amount of relief when those figures first appeared on screen. the election campaign has been massively divisive, this country is very polarised. the governing party was always campaigning about security, russian aggression, talking about illegal migration a lot, and social spending. the opposition has campaigned heavily on democracy itself, talking about the rule of law, the freedom of the press, repairing relations with the eu, which have been badly damaged in recent years.

people going to the polls to vote were saying this was a historic moment, it was about deciding the kind of country this is going forward, which direction this country moves in. everyone said it was extremely important, and there's just one figure which shows that above all — the turnout. initial figures suggest at least 73% turnout, the highest number since democracy was returned to poland after the collapse of communism. so a very, very engaged population here, a long way to go of course, votes still to be counted. but at the moment, it looks like a very significant result. and in ecuador�*s presidential election, business heir daniel noboa has come out on top after polls closed sunday.

noboa defeated leftist rival luisa gonzalez the center—right outsider has vowed to "restore peace" to the country. the election was marred by violence, with the murder of anti—corruption candidate fernando villavicencio, shot dead at a campaign event in august. and you can get all the latest about the situation in israel and gaza on our website bbc.com/news or the bbc news app. we have a live page that is constantly being updated, with news and analysis from our teams on the ground in israel, gaza, and around the world. i'll be back at the top of the hour, join me then if you can. hello, big changes happening weather—wise again this week, but at the moment, still feeling very much like autumn. temperatures below the seasonal average, lots of dry weather,

blue sky and sunshine, pretty autumn colours over the weekend, and high pressure still dominates as we head through monday. it will push ever so slowly further eastwards, eventually allowing low pressure systems to push in from the south—west. it's another chilly start to the day on monday, bit of patchy frost again possible across england and wales in particular. temperatures a little milder across northern ireland and scotland with more in the way of cloud. but that cloud will tend to break up, i think, as the day wears on. so some brightness and sunshine emerging, especially through the afternoon. maybe a few isolated showers. we'll see some showers towards north sea—facing coasts for england and wales. it's a sunnier start to the day, but more cloud will build through the afternoon. temperatures likely to peak again a little below the seasonal average, 11 to 1a degrees celsius. it's still windy across the northern isles on monday and it will turn windier towards these channel coasts too, as we head towards the end of the day. why? well, this area of low pressure pulls in from the south—west. it's going to turn pretty unsettled for much of

the rest of the week. but on tuesday, again, it is largely dry, quite blustery, with a brisk easterly wind, especially towards the south, there'll be outbreaks of rain edging into parts of cornwall, western wales, i think by the time we get to the end of the day. further north, largely dry, top temperatures peaking between 11 and 15 degrees celsius, starting to draw some milder air in along with these weather fronts. and they're due to push further northwards and eastwards as we head throughout the night on tuesday and into wednesday. so turning much more unsettled across the border, brisk easterly to south—easterly wind blowing. there'll be outbreaks of rain. some of that rain likely to be heavy at times, especially across the south—west of england, wales, those showers pushing up through to parts of scotland as well. but in the milderfeeling air, temperatures will rise as high as perhaps 18 or 19 degrees celsius across the south—west and the channel islands. but then the focus of that rain will change as we head through thursday and friday. and it's quite likely that we'll see some of the heaviest downpours across central and eastern areas of scotland. and there are already met office weather warnings in force.

there could be some exceptionally heavy rain in these areas. severe gales, too, towards the east coast. here's the outlook for our capital cities, turning milder but much more unsettled. bye bye.

hello, and welcome to unspun world. i'm john simpson. not much doubt about our main story this week, naturally, and in a moment, i'll be analysing the latest

situation in israel and gaza. but also on this programme, immigration, probably the dominant topic in europe at present. is there any foolproof way of stopping the illegal movement of people? shouldn't we start thinking further upstream? are we dealing with development issues so that people are less desirous of leaving their home countries in the first place? the us government has serious political problems in paying its way, but do ordinary americans care if their politicians jam up the works deliberately? a lot of republican voters, a lot of republican rank and file members, think the country is heading in a terribly wrong direction. a government has gotten too big that if something isn't done very, very soon, that it'll be too late to save the country. and in india, the bbc has discovered a vast and cruel scam which has led to poverty, fear, and suicide.