a woman dies after being change. a woman dies after being swe -t into change. a woman dies after being swept into a _ change. a woman dies after being swept into a river _ change. a woman dies after being swept into a river after _ change. a woman dies after being swept into a river after storm - change. a woman dies after being i swept into a river after storm babet hits parts of scotland. there is a warning for a widespread flooding and a risk to life. president biden address of the american people and tells them supporting israel is vital for us security. the first humanitarian aid convoys due to enter gaza this morning. welcome to the programme. the conservatives have suffered crushing defeats and two by—elections overnight, with labour overturning substantial majorities in both mid bedfordshire and tamworth. the result in mid bedfordshire represents the largest conservative majority overturned by labour in a by—election since 1935. it was triggered following the resignation

of former culture secretary nadine dorries. here our political helen kat. these by—elections were billed as nail—biters. close, tense. in the end, they delivered two significant victories to labour. first in tamworth — the 57th safest conservative seat in the country before last night. edwards, sarah siena, labour party — 11,719 votes. cheering. the new mp was elated. they are seeing the conservatives do not have anything to offer. the defeated conservative candidate chose not to stick around. in a statement the tories described it as "a difficult result on a much—reduced turnout". but it was about to get even more difficult for them. over in mid bedfordshire,

when the ballot boxes started arriving, it had still been too close to call, in a rare three—way fight between the conservatives, labour and the lib dems. the liberal democrats doubled their share of the vote, but once again it was labour who emerged victorious. i therefore duly declare alistair luke strathern elected as member of parliament for the mid bedfordshire parliamentary constituency. cheering. for labour, an emotional reaction. the labour party wouldn't be where it is right now without keir starmer's leadership. it's the changes he's made, to bring us closer to values that we have here in mid bedfordshire, that have been so powerful — those values of respect, community—first, country—first politics are so important and that's given us the platform we've needed to be able to deliver such a historic result here and set us up for hopefully a historic win going into the next general election. for the conservatives, another swift exit... ..and a lot to contemplate — defeated in two safe seats with their share of the vote

slashed in each. by—elections do often throw up surprises — these ones could leave behind some significant political aftershocks. helen catt, bbc news. lots of reaction to those labour victories this morning. a little earlier this morning, labour party leader sir keir starmer gave reaction to voters in mid—bedfordshire what a fantastic candidate... cheering he has not cheering he has no ., , ., he has not only one here, he has made history _ he has not only one here, he has made history here, _ he has not only one here, he has made history here, what - he has not only one here, he has made history here, what an - made history here, what an incredible achievement already, and thank you to all of you through doing all that hard work, for being such a brilliant team. this is such a hard fight. it was such a big majority. it was a three—way fight. every single conversation, every vote she persuaded to come to us was work you have done on behalf of this constituency for a better future, and thank you to all of you for

having a positive case that we took out there. this is an incredible night, in politics, and an incredible morning, an incredible result here for so many reasons. it is clear that the voters here have turned their back on a failed tory government. they had enough of the decline of the last 13 years, and they are crying out for change, positive change come up with the labour party can bring them. positive change that a changed labour party can bring them, building the economy so it raises living standards are everywhere across the country, notjust rebuilding our nhs, but taking it forward so that it is fit for the future, making sure that we have the skills and opportunities for all of our young people, everywhere across this country. that is our positive case. we take this incredible victory humbly. we know that voters here have voted for us, and they

have put their trust and the confidence in a changed labour party, and we will repay them for that trust and confidence. we do so humbly. people yesterday probably voted tory in the past, and voted for a changed labour party, because they despair at the state of their own party. i'm glad that they have seen that our party has changed and they can put their trust and confidence in them, and hope that persuade other voters across the country who may have voted for other parties in the past, the party of the future and the party of national renewal, to reject the decline of the last 13 years, is this changed labour party. we go forward, thank you so much, and an incredible result. cheering responding to the results overnight,

daisy c00per. _ responding to the results overnight, daisy c00per. the — responding to the results overnight, daisy cooper, the liberal _ responding to the results overnight, daisy cooper, the liberal democrats | daisy cooper, the liberal democrats deputy leader emphasised they had been able to attract conservative voters. , t, , been able to attract conservative voters. , ., , ., ., , been able to attract conservative voters. , ., ., , ., voters. this has turned out to be a three-way — voters. this has turned out to be a three-way seat. — voters. this has turned out to be a three-way seat, and _ voters. this has turned out to be a three-way seat, and we've - voters. this has turned out to be a| three-way seat, and we've doubled three—way seat, and we've doubled our share of the vote and one over the support of thousands and thousands of lifelong conservative voters. clearly we won a lot of support in more of the rural villages. we know that labourfocus more on the in area, but this success we had has put us on course to win a number of constituencies at the next general election. yes. to win a number of constituencies at the next general election.— the next general election. yes, but ou can the next general election. yes, but you can see — the next general election. yes, but you can see the _ the next general election. yes, but you can see the problem, - the next general election. yes, but you can see the problem, and - the next general election. yes, but you can see the problem, and you | you can see the problem, and you know this well, the reality is that you still came third, and this is at a time when, if the assumption is that people are voting against the conservatives, as in they want to vote somewhere else, people should

be coming to you, and the fact is that regardless that your numbers have gone up, it is simply not enough. being in third place in a place like that, with the gains that you've made, it means you get nowhere, you make no progress. that is not right- — nowhere, you make no progress. that is not right- as _ nowhere, you make no progress. that is not right. as the _ nowhere, you make no progress. t�*isgit is not right. as the top pollster john curtis is just set in the last few hours, there will be a number of places in the next general election will be contested by all three parties. the liberal democrats are in second place took on searches of an 80 constituencies around the country. we will focus our resources in those areas, and have a laser—like focus on having as many mps as possible in those blue all areas where the liberal democrats areas where the liberal democrats are the key challenges, and the only party that can beat the conservatives in those seats. can i ask ou, conservatives in those seats. can i ask you. did _ conservatives in those seats. can i ask you. did you — conservatives in those seats. can i ask you. did you go _ conservatives in those seats. can i ask you, did you go to _ conservatives in those seats. can i ask you, did you go to mid - ask you, did you go to mid bedfordshire self, were you there? i want a number of times. can - bedfordshire self, were you there? i want a number of times. can you - bedfordshire self, were you there? i l want a number of times. can you give us our want a number of times. can you give us your insight _ want a number of times. can you give us your insight into _ want a number of times. can you give us your insight into what _ want a number of times. can you give us your insight into what people - us your insight into what people were saying to you on the doorstep

about why they weren't voting as they previously had, because you have increased your boat, so people have increased your boat, so people have come to you, so what were the reasons they were not sticking with how they voted before?— reasons they were not sticking with how they voted before? there were a number of reasons _ how they voted before? there were a number of reasons you _ how they voted before? there were a number of reasons you might - how they voted before? there were a l number of reasons you might imagine. for some people it was their frustration and anger at the previous mp, but in large it was anger directed squarely at the government. people are enormously frustrated that they can see a gp, a dentist, that the nhs has been driven into the ground. many people had seen their mortgages spiral as a result of the mini budget, and the conservatives' mismanagement of the economy. with the nhs and the cost of living, the government wasn't speaking to them. the government wasn't focused on the issues that were facing them day in, day out. they were incredibly angry about the squabbling, the scandals, the mismanagement and incompetence. there was a huge amount of anger and fury on the doorstep. i was speaking

to people yesterday on polling day, people in their 80s and 90s, lifelong conservative voters who had never voted for any other political party in their lifetime, many of them said they were voting for the liberal democrats for the very first time because there were so angry at the way the conservative government is performing. as i say, if that is replicated at the next general election, the liberal democrats are on course, we hope, to win dozens of seats. _ , ,, .w on course, we hope, to win dozens of seats. _ , ,, ., ~ ., on course, we hope, to win dozens of seats. _ ,, ., , on course, we hope, to win dozens of seats. _ ,, ., seats. daisy cooper speaking to us a little earlier. _ seats. daisy cooper speaking to us a little earlier. we _ seats. daisy cooper speaking to us a little earlier. we will _ seats. daisy cooper speaking to us a little earlier. we will hear _ seats. daisy cooper speaking to us a little earlier. we will hear from - little earlier. we will hear from the conservatives in the next few minutes, but i want to talk to our political correspondent, nick eardley, who is in mid bedfordshire, and our political correspondent in tamworth. henry, it is a night of history and a lot of headlines of the conservatives don't want to be waking up to this morning? it is the conservatives don't want to be waking up to this morning?- waking up to this morning? it is a completely _ waking up to this morning? it is a completely disastrous _ waking up to this morning? it is a completely disastrous night - waking up to this morning? it is a completely disastrous night for i waking up to this morning? it 3 — completely disastrous night for the conservative party. tamworth, where i am, it is the second biggest

swing, percentage change in the vote from conservative to labour since the end of the second world war... inaudible we are going to fix your microphone, because we're getting a bit of break up because we're getting a bit of break up on it, so let me go to nick first. a light of records, not the sort of records the tories will want to be recording this morning? absolutely, but once that delight labour, — absolutely, but once that delight labour, ben. the seat i am in, mid bedfordshire, labour had never won it before _ bedfordshire, labour had never won it before it— bedfordshire, labour had never won it before. it was one of the safest tory _ it before. it was one of the safest tory seats — it before. it was one of the safest tory seats in the country. one by 20000 _ tory seats in the country. one by 20000 -- — tory seats in the country. one by 20000 —— they won by 25,000 votes, so what _ 20000 —— they won by 25,000 votes, so what we _ 20000 —— they won by 25,000 votes, so what we saw last night was extraordinary, labourwinning so what we saw last night was extraordinary, labour winning the seat for— extraordinary, labour winning the seat for the first time ever, overturning the biggest majority ever overturned at a by—election. it feels _ ever overturned at a by—election. it feels like _ ever overturned at a by—election. it feels like a — ever overturned at a by—election. it feels like a real moment. the question— feels like a real moment. the question people are asking this morning — question people are asking this morning is, is at the moment that a

labour— morning is, is at the moment that a labour victory in the general election— labour victory in the general election became pretty much inevitable, like it was almost not going _ inevitable, like it was almost not going to — inevitable, like it was almost not going to be stopped? i was chatting to keir_ going to be stopped? i was chatting to keir starmer about 20 minutes ago on bbc_ to keir starmer about 20 minutes ago on bbc breakfast, and he was saying, look, _ on bbc breakfast, and he was saying, look. we _ on bbc breakfast, and he was saying, look, we don't want to get ahead of ourselves, — look, we don't want to get ahead of ourselves, there's still a lot of work— ourselves, there's still a lot of work to— ourselves, there's still a lot of work to do, but it is hard not see the increasing levels of confidence in the _ the increasing levels of confidence in the labour party when you speak to people _ in the labour party when you speak to people like its leader, keir starmeh _ to people like its leader, keir starmer. he is saying it is a game changer. — starmer. he is saying it is a game changer. i— starmer. he is saying it is a game changer, i shows labour can challenge in parts of the country where _ challenge in parts of the country where they have never challenged before _ where they have never challenged before. we should point out that by—elections and general elections can he _ by—elections and general elections can be very different things. chatting _ can be very different things. chatting to senior labour people this morning, they say they really don't _ this morning, they say they really don't want — this morning, they say they really don't want to get ahead of ourselves here _ don't want to get ahead of ourselves here the _ don't want to get ahead of ourselves here. the worst possible thing would be complacency. as we say, having been _ be complacency. as we say, having been to _ be complacency. as we say, having been to a _ be complacency. as we say, having been to a few of these by—elections are in— been to a few of these by—elections are in the _ been to a few of these by—elections are in the past few months now, you caniust _ are in the past few months now, you caniust see — are in the past few months now, you canjust see every time labour have one of— canjust see every time labour have one of these — canjust see every time labour have one of these big swings in their

favour. — one of these big swings in their favour, their confidence grows and the prospect of them forming the next government probably next year seems _ next government probably next year seems to— next government probably next year seems to be all the more likely. nick, _ seems to be all the more likely. nick, stay— seems to be all the more likely. nick, stay with us, i want to go back to henry in tamworth, and that is the point, isn't it, what the government will say is that you can't read a lot into these results, they don't determine a general election, but with swings of this sort, they could do exactly that, couldn't they?— sort, they could do exactly that, couldn't they? these results don't determine general _ couldn't they? these results don't determine general elections, - couldn't they? these results don't| determine general elections, sure, but there is plenty that you can read into them. governments don't generally lose by—elections on swings like this, which is why we have spent all morning talking about how historic scales of these defeats are. the government to try and pass this off as some kind of mid—term i think underplays the scale of what happened last night. one specific thing to do with tamworth that is

very important to understand is that tamworth voted very strongly to leave the european union in 2016, and it is a big reason why, in seats like this, in all different parts of the country but especially around here in the west midlands and also the north, labour's vote really fell away at the 2019 general election, where the conservatives won a landslide. last night suggests, just suggests, that some of those voters who backed brexit now have forgiven the labour party for opposing brexit and for wanting a second referendum, or at least are willing to vote on different issues. if that is true all over the country, and strong brexit supporting areas, that opens up brexit supporting areas, that opens up a whole new class of seat for the labour party at the next general election, which we are expecting next year, where they could prosper. that could suggest a very dark period for the conservative party at the next general election. band period for the conservative party at the next general election.— the next general election. and the government _ the next general election. and the government will _ the next general election. and the government will say _ the next general election. and the government will say that - the next general election. and the government will say that these .

the next general election. and the | government will say that these sort of results may happen if there are mid—term blues, if the election is just a bit —— the electorate is just a bit unhappy, but it will be reflected at the general election, but it does feel different this time. it is why the government will be so worried these figures? band time. it is why the government will be so worried these figures? and to state the obvious, _ be so worried these figures? and to state the obvious, it _ be so worried these figures? and to state the obvious, it is _ be so worried these figures? and to state the obvious, it is not - be so worried these figures? and to state the obvious, it is not the - state the obvious, it is not the middle of the parliamentary term. the last general election was almost four years ago, the next general election has to take place by mid—january 2025. we are expecting it really at the very latest december next year. the government doesn't have a lot of time to turn it around. one crumb of comfort, and i think it isjust a crime, but one crumb of comfort among conservatives i've been speaking to this morning is, they say look how volatile public opinion clearly is. just four years ago, the public delivered the worst general election result of the labour party that they had had in 80 odd years, so they say, if the public can change its mind about the labour party really quickly, between

now and the next general election in might change its mind about the conservative party, and so the position might look quite different come the general election. i think, you know, that may well be the case. thatjust you know, that may well be the case. that just underscores that what the conservative party are relying on now is a dramatic shift in public opinion. it is not that the polls are narrowing, the labour lead looks are narrowing, the labour lead looks a bit soft or anything like that, that has all been blown away by not just these two by—elections, but the by—election in rutherglen in scotland and some of the elections in the summer. what the conservative party is now hoping for is an extremely dramatic turnaround. it may happen, but the reason it would be so dramatic is because it looks quite difficult to achieve. it really is interesting. let's bring nick back in at this point. given what we heard there from henry, what of the conservative strategy look like from here on in? after these result from by—elections, notjust these two overnight, with the previous ones henry was talking

about, where do they go from here? we have seen rishi sunak already try and play— we have seen rishi sunak already try and play his— we have seen rishi sunak already try and play his hand. he went to the conservative conference a few weeks a -o, conservative conference a few weeks ago. he _ conservative conference a few weeks ago, he tried some big, bold policies _ ago, he tried some big, bold policies like ripping up h52 and coming — policies like ripping up h52 and coming up with another plan like replacing — coming up with another plan like replacing a—levels in england with the new— replacing a—levels in england with the new qualification. a few weeks a-o, the new qualification. a few weeks ago. he _ the new qualification. a few weeks ago, he had to rethink some of the net zero _ ago, he had to rethink some of the net zero targets. that was his big play. _ net zero targets. that was his big play. and — net zero targets. that was his big play, and what is really interesting is that— play, and what is really interesting is that it _ play, and what is really interesting is that it doesn't seem to be working _ is that it doesn't seem to be working. if anything, the conservatives seem to be struggling more _ conservatives seem to be struggling more to— conservatives seem to be struggling more to win over voters. there will be a _ more to win over voters. there will be a lot— more to win over voters. there will be a lot of— more to win over voters. there will be a lot of conservative mps scratching their heads this morning. some _ scratching their heads this morning. some ministers have been saying privately. — some ministers have been saying privately, look, we can't afford to change _ privately, look, we can't afford to change course here. we have to keep going _ change course here. we have to keep going with _ change course here. we have to keep going with the plan that the prime minister— going with the plan that the prime minister has already set out, in the hope _ minister has already set out, in the hope is _ minister has already set out, in the hope is that— minister has already set out, in the hope is that the economy already starts _ hope is that the economy already starts to— hope is that the economy already starts to improve, and he has delivered _ starts to improve, and he has delivered some of the smudges on

small— delivered some of the smudges on small boats and the nhs and that might— small boats and the nhs and that might start to turn things around, but i _ might start to turn things around, but i have — might start to turn things around, but i have to be honest with you, if you are _ but i have to be honest with you, if you are conservative mp this morning. _ you are conservative mp this morning, you're feeling pretty despairing about the situation. if you contrast that with what labour people _ you contrast that with what labour people are — you contrast that with what labour people are saying privately this morning. — people are saying privately this morning, even the ones who have been holding _ morning, even the ones who have been holding their— morning, even the ones who have been holding their tongues, trying not to be too _ holding their tongues, trying not to be too optimistic, they are now looking — be too optimistic, they are now looking at— be too optimistic, they are now looking at the same going, there are lar-e looking at the same going, there are large parts _ looking at the same going, there are large parts of the country that weren't— large parts of the country that weren't in— large parts of the country that weren't in play for us before but are now — weren't in play for us before but are now. they're looking notjust at the odd _ are now. they're looking notjust at the odd result, but a pattern. there have now _ the odd result, but a pattern. there have now been four by—elections, selby. _ have now been four by—elections, selby, rutherglen, tamworth and mid bedfordshire, where they have been a swing _ bedfordshire, where they have been a swing of— bedfordshire, where they have been a swing of 20% or more to the labour party _ swing of 20% or more to the labour party these — swing of 20% or more to the labour party. these aren't freak results now, _ party. these aren't freak results now. it — party. these aren't freak results now, it seems to be a pattern where labour— now, it seems to be a pattern where labour are _ now, it seems to be a pattern where labour are doing better and better. the one _ labour are doing better and better. the one thing some conservative mps are holding _ the one thing some conservative mps are holding on to is that their vote isn't turning — are holding on to is that their vote isn't turning out. if you look at the two — isn't turning out. if you look at

the two by—elections of the night, the two by—elections of the night, the conservative vote collapsed. is there _ the conservative vote collapsed. is there something those tory mps will be wondering that they can do to try and enthuse it again, to get it turn out at _ and enthuse it again, to get it turn out at a _ and enthuse it again, to get it turn out at a general election, where they— out at a general election, where they are — out at a general election, where they are trying to say, who do you want _ they are trying to say, who do you want running the country? don'tjust .ive want running the country? don'tjust give the _ want running the country? don'tjust give the government a bloody nose, do you _ give the government a bloody nose, do you want — give the government a bloody nose, do you want rishi sunak or keir starmer? — do you want rishi sunak or keir starmer? all the signs this morning are pretty— starmer? all the signs this morning are pretty bad for the conservative party. _ are pretty bad for the conservative party, pretty good for the labour party _ party, pretty good for the labour pa . , party, pretty good for the labour pa . ., ., , , party. good to have you with us this mornin: , party. good to have you with us this morning. thank— party. good to have you with us this morning, thank you _ party. good to have you with us this morning, thank you for _ party. good to have you with us this morning, thank you for the - party. good to have you with us this morning, thank you for the latest i morning, thank you for the latest air on those results overnight that have given a lot of conservative mps a lot to think about this morning. joining me live is professor sir john curtice, a political scientist at the university of strathclyde. a night where a lot of records were broken, you've been looking at them, just tell us how significant the swings are?— just tell us how significant the swings are? just tell us how significant the swinus are? ., , ., ., swings are? you might first of all ask, wh swings are? you might first of all ask. why do _ swings are? you might first of all ask. why do we _ swings are? you might first of all ask, why do we bother _ swings are? you might first of all ask, why do we bother with - ask, why do we bother with historical record? we know that by—elections are not like general elections, indeed we even know that

by—elections are not even like opinion polls taken in the middle of a parliament, and it is not uncommon for the swing against the government to be higher in by—elections than whatever you might expect at a general election at that point of time. therefore, it is important, in fact, if trying to find out what's just been said, last time we are looking at 20 point swings through the labour party, particularly swings from the conservatives that the labour party, you have to go back to the 1992 to 1997 parliament. we know what happened at the end of that parliament, there was a pretty substantial labour victory. history isn't planning to repeat itself, but it does mean that it is reasonable to judge it does mean that it is reasonable tojudge given it does mean that it is reasonable to judge given the results of the by—elections and the evidence of the opinion polls that the government now is in much the same difficulty asjohn major was 12 months before

the 1997 general election, and his task again has been pointed out is to turn it around and to do so in a way thatjohn major wasn't able to do so. way that john ma'or wasn't able to do so. ., ~ ., ., ,., do so. talk to me about staffordshire, _ do so. talk to me about staffordshire, the - do so. talk to me about - staffordshire, the by-election, it staffordshire, the by—election, it has changed as title, same swing 12 months before a general election, just explain that significance as that was one that labour won? it is not 'ust that was one that labour won? it is not just the — that was one that labour won? it 3 not just the by—elections that was one that labour won? it 3 notjust the by—elections in that was one that labour won? it 3 not just the by—elections in the notjust the by—elections in the 1997 parliament, there was a by—election in tamworth, it was just cold southee staffordshire there. on that occasion, there was a 22 point swing from conservative labour. that allowed labour to pick up the seat. now there has been a 2k allowed labour to pick up the seat. now there has been a 20 point swing from conservative to labour, allowing labour to pick up the seat. the truth is, the politics of tamworth have changed in the intervening period. it has become much less of a labour seat, or much more difficult seat for labour to pick up than it was back in 1996,

and to that extent at least the victory this time around is even more remarkable than was the victory backin more remarkable than was the victory back in 1996, that yes, same place, same message, same time in the parliament, you can see why conservative mps might feel a bit uncomfortable this morning. band conservative mps might feel a bit uncomfortable this morning. and we will hear from _ uncomfortable this morning. and we will hear from the _ uncomfortable this morning. and we will hear from the conservatives - uncomfortable this morning. and we will hear from the conservatives in l will hear from the conservatives in just a moment, we have a clip of greg hands to bring people. we are looking at the response from the conservatives, they say low turnout was the biggest problem, voters staying at home, and once again, as you'd expect, pointed to the local nature of by—election. does that have any merit? i nature of by-election. does that have any merit?— nature of by-election. does that have any merit? i would say the fact that ou have any merit? i would say the fact that you voters _ have any merit? i would say the fact that you voters turned _ have any merit? i would say the fact that you voters turned dominic - that you voters turned dominic failed to turn out is a symptom of your malaise, and there is not an immediate remedy. i remember in the 2010 to 2015 parliament when the liberal democrats were very down in the polls, and people who voted liberal democrat in 2010 set i am not sure what i'm going to do, you know what? they didn't vote liberal

democrat in 2015. the second thing i would say is that if you go back to those by—elections in the 1992 to 1997 parliament that produced large swings to labour, there is a big drop in turnout for those as well. they proved in the end to be quite important signals, and i would suggest that these by—elections also merit being regarded as potentially at leastjust important signals. tom at least 'ust important signals. two lines at leastjust important signals. two lines coming _ at leastjust important signals. two lines coming in _ at leastjust important signals. two lines coming in to us from labour this morning after that speech by sir keir starmer, saying that labour is taking the victory humbly. still a lot of time until the general election and a lot can change in time, but he hopes that this incredible result will persuade other people to vote labour. that is the point here. it starts to change the point here. it starts to change the narrative somewhat, doesn't it, and give people a sense that politics could change? perhaps, but i think one has _ politics could change? perhaps, but i think one has to _ politics could change? perhaps, but i think one has to say _ politics could change? perhaps, but i think one has to say that - i think one has to say that certainly in mid bedfordshire, it is much more a case of voters rejecting the conservatives than necessarily

backing labour, because the truth is the spoils of the conservative decline was effectively shared between labour and the liberal democrats, and labour got about a third of the vote in mid bedfordshire, not exactly a dominating result. the interesting thing nevertheless is that even though labour, for the first time in a parliamentary by—election, was actually fighting it out with the liberal democrats in order to see who could beat the conservatives, in the end labour did manage to get the battle of that battle. —— the better of that battle. the truth is, while labour have changed sufficiently under sir keir starmer to profit from conservative misfortune, the timeline of this parliament has been one where the two key events were, one, the first revelations about partygate under borisjohnson, and secondly with liz truss fiscal event almost a year ago now. those were the two things this voters swing from conservative to labour, and to that extent at least this has been a

parliament that has been dominated by conservative mistakes from which labour are profiting, and from which labour are profiting, and from which labour now need to try and solidify. one could certainly seriously asked the question, if partygate had never happened, would labour at the moment to be enjoying a 17 point lead in the opinion polls, let alone getting 20 point swings in by—elections? it will be an interesting few months ahead. very good to have you with us, thank you for that insight. there is a lot to play for ahead of what is largely expected to be that general election. let's turn our attention elsewhere. storm babet has been battering the uk with torrential rain and strong winds. hundreds of people were advised to leave their homes overnight in parts of scotland as the storm hit — and thousands of properties were left without power. a rare red weather warning — meaning there's a risk to life —

is in force until midday with heavy rain sweeping through northern and eastern scotland. simonjones reports. it's been a wet, windy and wild night, and there's more on the way as storm babet batters much of the uk. overnight in brechin in eastern scotland, the coastguard and fire service have been going door to door, asking residents to leave their homes for their own safety. this area is under an extremely rare red weather warning for rain. that means there's a very real risk to life. a woman died after being swept into a river in angus. we've had really extensive disruption overnight to quite a widespread number of communities across northeast scotland. if you're in an area that has been flooded, i'd say please follow the advice of the emergency services. don't walk or drive through flood water. several flood warnings and severe flood warnings have been in place in eastern scotland. communities could be cut off for days, with the wet weather also bringing the possibility of landslides. coastal areas have been hard hit.

some homes have been left without power. residents have been doing what they can to protect their properties. community centres have been opened in areas where it's too dangerous for people to remain at home. for some, it's an all too familiar story. cos i was evacuated in november, i was out of my house for five months. i've been flooded umpteen times. i was out of my house for ten months. if you do have to - evacuate, will you go? it's up to the wife — she's the boss! in carnoustie, school shut early. in stonehaven in aberdeenshire, the new flood defences were being put to the test. travel has been badly disrupted — it was a bumpy ride for passengers flying into aberdeen, and the situation on the trains hasn't been much better. our advice is, if you're in a red weather—warning area, do not travel. we've told our staff in those areas to stay at home. if you live across the rest of the network or want to travel on scotrail across the network, check before you travel. warnings for wind and rain cover

much of the rest of the uk today — people advised to brace themselves for what babet brings. simon jones, bbc news. joining me live is fiona lamdin in brechin and alison freeman, who is in whitley bay. we have been watching you throughout the morning with people being evacuated where you are. they've been brought out in dinghies, and that culture by surprise, even though there are weather warnings in place? though there are weather warnings in lace? , �* �* . ., place? yes, i'm in brechin, and we have 'ust place? yes, i'm in brechin, and we have just seen _ place? yes, i'm in brechin, and we have just seen there _ place? yes, i'm in brechin, and we have just seen there are _ place? yes, i'm in brechin, and we have just seen there are some - place? yes, i'm in brechin, and we i have just seen there are some people behind, i don't know if you can see, her walking through the floodwater right now. all morning, the liferafts have been here, getting people in and out. it has been a very concentrated effort to get all those out who have been trapped. i'm not sure why these people are now

walking, we have seen people trying to drive out, and as you can see, their cars just to drive out, and as you can see, their carsjust get to drive out, and as you can see, their cars just get stuck. this house over here, we have just seen the residents come down, and they are absolutely in tears. it is so sad. they have just seen the damage, the waters up to their windows, their cars submerge, and they've told me there are people up on the top floor that the fire and rescue can get to at the moment, because there is no way to get them at their windows. they is going to have to wait until the water goes down. i was here yesterday, and there were evacuation centres, they were told it might happen, with people didn't want to believe it. they said, i'm sure this won't happen, and so many people chose to stay, and then at four o'clock, the river broke its banks, and people had to leave. all morning, we have seen these rafts taking people in and out, bringing pets, bringing their medicine, and when they come out these, and they

go when they come out these, and they 9° up, when they come out these, and they go up, there is a very organised chain. you can see the police parked there, the police then take them up to an evacuation centre. there are three evacuation centres in this area. this car here, ijust want to show you it, we saw the residents, it was pitch black and they didn't realise quite how deep it was, and they started trying to drive out. amazingly, the teams were able to get them out that car to safety. if you see here, these people are just walking through, and they have got the suitcase. yes, they are through. let's just come and meet you in here. you and, we are standing by. we are standing outside your warehouses. how long if you have them here?— warehouses. how long if you have them here? ,, " 'j~ ., , them here? summer1998, and the rest in 2006 will stop _ them here? summer1998, and the rest in 2006 will stop there _ them here? summer1998, and the rest in 2006 will stop there are _ them here? summer1998, and the rest in 2006 will stop there are 14 _ in 2006 will stop there are 14 industrial— in 2006 will stop there are 14 industrial units absolutely flooded with water. �* , ~ ,

with water. anything like this ever before? two _ with water. anything like this ever before? two major— with water. anything like this ever before? two major floods - with water. anything like this ever before? two major floods and - with water. anything like this ever before? two major floods and one before? two ma'or floods and one minor, before? two ma'or floods and one minor. we — before? two major floods and one minor. we never— before? two major floods and one minor, we never had _ before? two major floods and one minor, we never had it _ before? two major floods and one minor, we never had it like - before? two major floods and one minor, we never had it like this i minor, we never had it like this before — minor, we never had it like this before. unfortunately all the units this time — before. unfortunately all the units this time are affected, before it was only— this time are affected, before it was only five or six units. i feel very— was only five or six units. i feel very sorry— was only five or six units. i feel very sorry for the tenants. there are a _ very sorry for the tenants. there are a lot — very sorry for the tenants. there are a lot who have their own businesses and everything. all goes on in there- — businesses and everything. all goes on in there. some _ businesses and everything. all goes on in there. some are _ businesses and everything. all goes on in there. some are telling - businesses and everything. all goes on in there. some are telling me . on in there. some are telling me they raised all their precious equipment and hope of saving it? that is correct. we thought it might .et that is correct. we thought it might get a _ that is correct. we thought it might get a bit _ that is correct. we thought it might get a bit bad last night, we never realised — get a bit bad last night, we never realised a — get a bit bad last night, we never realised a red warning was so severe — realised a red warning was so severe it _ realised a red warning was so severe. it isjust because the river has come — severe. it isjust because the river has come over the wall, it was the lowest _ has come over the wall, it was the lowest part— has come over the wall, it was the lowest part of the whole time, so all the _ lowest part of the whole time, so all the water accumulates in this area, _ all the water accumulates in this area. and — all the water accumulates in this area, and there's really nothing we can do— area, and there's really nothing we can do about it. it is all hemmed in by the _ can do about it. it is all hemmed in by the defences as well, the defences keep the water in as well as keeping it out, so there's no place _ as keeping it out, so there's no place for— as keeping it out, so there's no place for the water go down. when

the river— place for the water go down. when the river goes down, there is no place _ the river goes down, there is no place for— the river goes down, there is no place for this floodwater in