�* decline �*decline was shared between labour of decline was shared between labour and liberal democrats, and labour got a third of the vote. not exactly a dominating result. the interesting thing is that even though labour for the first time was actually fighting it out with the liberal democrats in order to see who could beat the conservatives, labour won the battle. one has to say the truth is whilst labour have changed sufficiently under keir starmer to profit from a concept of misfortune, the timeline has been one weather to clear events were the first revelations about partygate under borisjohnson, and the liz truss fiscal event. those other two things which saw voters swing from conservative to labour. and this has been a parliament that has been

dominated by conservative mistakes, from which labour are profiting and now need to and solidify. i think one could seriously ask the question, if partygate didn't happen, would labour at the moment be enjoying a 17 point lead, let alone getting 20 point swings? let us speak to a column nhs at the observer. sonia, good to have you with us, keir starmer called it history in the making but he says i don't want to get carried away, there a long way to go. we know a lot can change in politics in the 12 months we would be waiting for an election but it has not been a great night for the conservatives, has it. no, it is a hugely positive result for labour. professorjohn curtice was saying there, we have not seen this sort of swings from the conservative party to labour in by—election results since the 92—97

parliament, when there were four by—elections, which labour took from the conservatives, in swings of over 20%, we havejust seen the conservatives, in swings of over 20%, we have just seen that happen in these two by—elections, so, obviously, you look at these results and it points to potentially, it is not guaranteed, a similar sort of landslide victory for labour in the next general election. the conservatives _ next general election. the conservatives are - next general election. the conservatives are keen - next general election. the conservatives are keen to blame low voter turn out, we have the numbers that gives a sense of how low it was, in tamworth 36% of constituents turned out to vote, down from 64% in, mid bedfordshire lili% voter turn out, compared to 73% in 2019. there are different issue, perhaps people are different issue, perhaps people are waiting for a general election, but, is there much merit in the conservatives blaming low voter turn out or is thatjust apathy we would expect at this stage of the political cycle?— expect at this stage of the olitical cle? ~ , ., ., , political cycle? well, you often see a much lower— political cycle? well, you often see a much lower turn _ political cycle? well, you often see a much lower turn out _ political cycle? well, you often see

a much lower turn out in _ a much lower turn out in by—election, so that is something that analysts factor in, i suppose the conservatives are right that some of that clearly large numbers of their voters stayed at home and didn't turn out to vote. labour didn't turn out to vote. labour didn't see that, labour voters did come out. and... didn't see that, labour voters did come out. and. . ._ didn't see that, labour voters did come out. and... sonia, stay with us, we come out. and... sonia, stay with us. we are — come out. and... sonia, stay with us, we are showing _ come out. and... sonia, stay with us, we are showing pictures - come out. and... sonia, stay with us, we are showing pictures of. come out. and... sonia, stay with l us, we are showing pictures of rishi sunak leaving downing street, but there is a bit of audio on there, talk me through that, there is is... but it is a really implausible sort of argument to say, well, the turn out was down but labour won, so decisively so that isn't good news for labour, it does show a level of apathy for the conservatives, i think that is right but the idea this isn't a very strong sign that voters want change, i think it is for the best, i think silt a mistake for the best, i think silt a mistake for the best, i think silt a mistake for the conservatives actually to sort of challenge this narrative, that this is a victory for labour,

they would do better off by saying we understand, we hear the public, we understand, we hear the public, we hear voters, they want a change, thatis we hear voters, they want a change, that is something we will try to offer them through rishi sunak, but i am not sure to come out so strongly and say, this isn't as good for lash as it looks when it is such a decisive result —— labour. i am not sure voter also take the right message from that. that not sure voter also take the right message from that.— not sure voter also take the right message from that. that is the bit they probably _ message from that. that is the bit they probably can't _ message from that. that is the bit they probably can't get _ message from that. that is the bit they probably can't get away - message from that. that is the bit | they probably can't get away from, we look at some of what history tells us and john curtice was running through it as well, the first time labour has made two by—election gains on the same day since 1962. no government losing such a safe seat at tamworth to the opposition party in a by—election. it is hard to spin that in a positive way. i wonder, sonia, it is hard to spin that in a positive way. iwonder, sonia, what will they be doing, how are they regrouping and how do they say if we have any chance of winning a general election, this is what we need to do, what is that thing they need to do? it do, what is that thing they need to do? , . , do, what is that thing they need to do? , ., , ,., , do, what is that thing they need to do? ., do, what is that thing they need to do? , ., , , ., ., do? it is a very sobering moment for them. i

do? it is a very sobering moment for them- i think — do? it is a very sobering moment for them. i think a — do? it is a very sobering moment for them. i think a lot _ do? it is a very sobering moment for them. i think a lot of— do? it is a very sobering moment for them. i think a lot of conservative i them. i think a lot of conservative mps would be hoping that the by—election results sort of, they would be some succour from them in that things weren't as bad adds polls are suggesting. the by—election results show that the polls really are as bad, that things are as bad as the polls are suggesting for the cavil conservatives. what —— conservatives. what —— conservatives. what —— conservatives. what sunak will be saying to mps, i have not been prime ministerfor very saying to mps, i have not been prime minister for very long, saying to mps, i have not been prime ministerforvery long, i saying to mps, i have not been prime ministerfor very long, i are saying to mps, i have not been prime minister for very long, i are set out a plan for change, we need to have time to let that work now, before the next election and see if we can attract voters back to us, the difficulty is, though, if you look at what is happening with the economy, it is hard to see how people could feel rosier about the economy, in time to make a difference, for a, a big difference at the next general election. and. at the next general election. and, what do the _ at the next general election. and, what do the previous _ at the next general election. and, what do the previous holders of these post, something in particular

nadine dories are, that will inevitably have had a, it would have been a key factor, given perhaps and we heard this from the labour party, mp, the new mp there, telling us that this was about change, this was about people voting for something different, that is is what has been difficult for the labour party thus far, is convincing voters they stand for something different, that they stand for change.— stand for change. yes, i think if ou look stand for change. yes, i think if you look at _ stand for change. yes, i think if you look at these _ stand for change. yes, i think if you look at these results, - stand for change. yes, i think if. you look at these results, people are coming out and voting for labour, if you look at the polls, people are saying they would vote labour in the next general election, so i think, you know, will is a lot of talk about labour and saying well, what do they actually actively stand for, i think we saw some of that, more of that at labour's conference in manchester. you saw starmer talk about housing in his speech. that is a real point of difference to the conservative, this pledge to build one million—and—a—half house, we will see more of that in the run—up to a general election, but i think, you

know, the mood in the country is now so anti—conservative, and that is the clear message it comes from polls, it comes from other by—elections, voters are willing to do what it takes to vote for a changing government, and for many voters they see that is voting labour and that is coming through clearly, so, you know, these results, together with the polls, they do leave labour looking like they do leave labour looking like they are in a strong position. sonia, always good to talk to you, thanks for being with us. thank you. we will turn our attention to another main story, the impacts of storm babet it has been battering the uk with torrential rain and strong winds, hundreds have been advised to live their homes in parts of scotland as the storm hits and thousands of properties were left without power, there is a rare red weather warning, without power, there is a rare red weatherwarning, meaning without power, there is a rare red weather warning, meaning that there is a risk to life, it is in force until midday, with heavy rain

sweeping through northern around eastern scotland. a new warning has now been issued for later tonight, we will get the latest on that in a moment. but we have also heard that trains now between london and south wales, they have been cancelled because of flooding on the line. the railway service, great western railway have released this photo showing some of the damage caused to power lines and rail lines, you get a sense of how difficult it is for infrastructure to cope can such levels of rainfall. let us speak to our correspondents who are tracking the storm's progress. rowan, let me get a sense of what is happening. that scene tells us what is happening with the weather. bring us up—to—date. is happening with the weather. bring us up-to-date-_ us up-to-date. yes, as you can probably — us up-to-date. yes, as you can probably tell — us up-to-date. yes, as you can probably tell it _ us up-to-date. yes, as you can probably tell it is _ us up-to-date. yes, as you can probably tell it is raining - us up-to-date. yes, as you can| probably tell it is raining heavily here at the moment, and that is before the amber weather warning kicks in here, that starts at midday

and runs 3—6 tomorrow morning but as you can tell, we have had rain coming down, it is raining heavily, behind me you can probably see the river swale which is swollen from the levels it would normally be at. as we were driving here from our hotel this morning as well, there was gusts of high winds affecting the area as well, so it is difficult conditions at the moment, and it is likely to get worse others the next 24 likely to get worse others the next 2a hours or so. likely to get worse others the next 24 hours or so— likely to get worse others the next 24 hours or so-_ likely to get worse others the next 24 hours or so. rowan, stay with us, i want to speak _ 24 hours or so. rowan, stay with us, i want to speak to _ 24 hours or so. rowan, stay with us, i want to speak to steven _ 24 hours or so. rowan, stay with us, i want to speak to steven who - 24 hours or so. rowan, stay with us, i want to speak to steven who is - 24 hours or so. rowan, stay with us, i want to speak to steven who is in i i want to speak to steven who is in brechin, that really has been at the centre of some of to most devastating flooding, we have seen pictures of people being evacuated from there in dinghy, people who have been caught up in this, despite the warnings, still taken by surprise by the severity of the flooding. surprise by the severity of the floodinu. ~ ,,., , .,, surprise by the severity of the floodinu. ~ , , .,, , ., flooding. absolutely, it has been a really difficult _ flooding. absolutely, it has been a really difficult night _ flooding. absolutely, it has been a really difficult night here _ flooding. absolutely, it has been a really difficult night here and - really difficult night here and difficult morning, if you see behind me there. — difficult morning, if you see behind me there, the situation has actually improved, _ me there, the situation has actually improved, slightly. the water levels

have gone _ improved, slightly. the water levels have gone down, about 6am this morning — have gone down, about 6am this morning when we first arrived the waters _ morning when we first arrived the waters were up to the windowsill of that bottom window there, there were people _ that bottom window there, there were people trapped in the upper floors and what — people trapped in the upper floors and what we have seen throughout the mornings _ and what we have seen throughout the mornings that the fire and rescue service _ mornings that the fire and rescue service the — mornings that the fire and rescue service the boat crews have been coming _ service the boat crews have been coming and going, to get people out and there _ coming and going, to get people out and there has been a constant stream of people. _ and there has been a constant stream of people, being rescued, coming along— of people, being rescued, coming along here — of people, being rescued, coming along here and the boats would go back out _ along here and the boats would go back out again and you know, do it all over— back out again and you know, do it all over again, back out again and you know, do it all overagain, it has back out again and you know, do it all over again, it has been quite a sight _ all over again, it has been quite a sight here, — all over again, it has been quite a sight here, dramatic, the bad news for people — sight here, dramatic, the bad news for people living here, is that the red warning is coming to an end, now, _ red warning is coming to an end, now. it _ red warning is coming to an end, now. it end — red warning is coming to an end, now, it end in 20 minutes or so but a new— now, it end in 20 minutes or so but a new red _ now, it end in 20 minutes or so but a new red warning has been issued for all— a new red warning has been issued for all day— a new red warning has been issued for all day tomorrow, from midnight to midnight tomorrow, and it covers this area _ to midnight tomorrow, and it covers this area again. to midnight tomorrow, and it covers this area again-— this area again. yes, steven, stay with us, let _ this area again. yes, steven, stay with us. let us — this area again. yes, steven, stay with us, let us go _ this area again. yes, steven, stay with us, let us go back— this area again. yes, steven, stay with us, let us go back to - this area again. yes, steven, stay with us, let us go back to rowan l with us, let us go back to rowan anybody yorkshire. rowan that river, the river swale, looking ferocious right now and the problem is, and

matt was telling news the weather centre, water levels likely to rise before they start to fall again, it get does worse before it gets better. . . get does worse before it gets better. , ., , ., ., better. yes, i mean you have the immediate _ better. yes, i mean you have the immediate situation _ better. yes, i mean you have the immediate situation of— better. yes, i mean you have the immediate situation of the - better. yes, i mean you have the l immediate situation of the weather conditions, you can see round me at the moment but as you say what you then get is the rainfall on to the hills, and that runs down into the valleys and the rivers and that will cause problems a day or 24 hours later, as the want the levels rise and some places may burst their bank, you are getting travel disruption already from the weather conditions you can see round me, so if you look at the railways, we are in north yorkshire, if you look at parts of yorkshire there is rail disruption, the line between sheffield and lincoln is being disrupted. trains are unable to stop at rotherham train station because of the weather conditions there, if you go further north, if you look at the line between newcastle, up to edinburgh there are speed restrictions there because of the

weather, they are facing a school in newcastle, pupils there are having to be taught from home online because their roof was damaged by high wind last night. so we are seeing disruption caused by the weather and more of that yet to come, still. weather and more of that yet to come. still-— weather and more of that yet to come, still. ., ., , ., come, still. rowan, we will let you no and come, still. rowan, we will let you go and get — come, still. rowan, we will let you go and get dry. — come, still. rowan, we will let you go and get dry, speak— come, still. rowan, we will let you go and get dry, speak to _ come, still. rowan, we will let you go and get dry, speak to you - come, still. rowan, we will let you go and get dry, speak to you later| go and get dry, speak to you later but back to steven in brechin. what have they told people. you talk about that renewed red weather warning for later tonight. understand that everybody who needed to get out has been evacuated but there will be concern about what is to come later. there will be concern about what is to come later-— there will be concern about what is to come later. yes, absolutely, mine it was, quite — to come later. yes, absolutely, mine it was. quite a _ to come later. yes, absolutely, mine it was, quite a sight _ to come later. yes, absolutely, mine it was, quite a sight here _ it was, quite a sight here overnight. you have heard from people — overnight. you have heard from people who were completely taken by surprise _ people who were completely taken by surprise by what happened overnight. a sign— surprise by what happened overnight. a sign of— surprise by what happened overnight. a sign of the concern was that last night _ a sign of the concern was that last night angus council were going door—to—door, round 300 houses, to tell people _ door—to—door, round 300 houses, to tell people who hadn't already got out to _ tell people who hadn't already got out to leave, because they were so

concerned — out to leave, because they were so concerned that the flood levels were simply _ concerned that the flood levels were simply going to overwhelm the flood defences _ simply going to overwhelm the flood defences that are here, just so give you a _ defences that are here, just so give you a sense — defences that are here, just so give you a sense of where i am, down that road there. _ you a sense of where i am, down that road there, another 500 yards is where _ road there, another 500 yards is where the — road there, another 500 yards is where the river is and there is is a flood _ where the river is and there is is a flood defence there, there is is a barrier— flood defence there, there is is a barrier that — flood defence there, there is is a barrier that is about four metres high _ barrier that is about four metres high welt, _ barrier that is about four metres high. well, the flooding at its peak was about— high. well, the flooding at its peak was about five metres high so it overwhelmed it and came into the housing _ overwhelmed it and came into the housing estate that was there. some people _ housing estate that was there. some people thought they are used to flooding — people thought they are used to flooding here, we have seen it before, — flooding here, we have seen it before, we don't need to leave, and they were _ before, we don't need to leave, and they were caught by surprise, and that meant— they were caught by surprise, and that meant we got this operation into fult— that meant we got this operation into full swing from first thing this morning, trying to get people out. this morning, trying to get people out so. _ this morning, trying to get people out. 50, most people, people are now out. 50, most people, people are now out of— out. 50, most people, people are now out oftheir— out. 50, most people, people are now out of their house, they won't be going _ out of their house, they won't be going back— out of their house, they won't be going back in tonight, so you won't have _ going back in tonight, so you won't have the _ going back in tonight, so you won't have the same sense of danger near terms _ have the same sense of danger near terms of— have the same sense of danger near terms of human potential threat to human— terms of human potential threat to human life — terms of human potential threat to human life but they are still going to get— human life but they are still going to get hit— human life but they are still going to get hit with a terrible spell of weather— to get hit with a terrible spell of weather tomorrow, this red warning weather tomorrow, this red warning we have _ weather tomorrow, this red warning we have learned about in the last

ten minutes or so.— we have learned about in the last ten minutes or so. stephen, thank ou for ten minutes or so. stephen, thank you for that _ ten minutes or so. stephen, thank you for that update. _ ten minutes or so. stephen, thank you for that update. let _ ten minutes or so. stephen, thank you for that update. let talks - ten minutes or so. stephen, thank| you for that update. let talks about this new red weather warning that has been issued. let us talk to matt taylorer, matt explain what this warning is, when does it come into force, one is about to expire but this is about a new one. it force, one is about to expire but this is about a new one.- force, one is about to expire but this is about a new one. it is, the roblem this is about a new one. it is, the problem is _ this is about a new one. it is, the problem is of _ this is about a new one. it is, the problem is of the _ this is about a new one. it is, the problem is of the amount - this is about a new one. it is, the problem is of the amount of- this is about a new one. it is, the i problem is of the amount of rainfall that has fallen already. this is the new warning area, slightly small irthan the current one, the most severe warning and they are expecting further severe flooding throughout saturday. the warning is valid throughout saturday so from midnight to midnight. not to same amount of rain totals but because serving so satch railway stationed things could get worse even after a brief respite. things could get worse even after a brief respite-— brief respite. give us a sense of what has happened _ brief respite. give us a sense of what has happened so - brief respite. give us a sense of what has happened so far, - brief respite. give us a sense of what has happened so far, we l brief respite. give us a sense of. what has happened so far, we have seen that picture on the ground and the rain still coming down in place, expected to get worse before it gets better. bring us up—to—date on what

we have scene seen so far. it a combination — we have scene seen so far. it a combination of _ we have scene seen so far. it a. combination of wind and rainfall. wetter spots, combination of wind and rainfall. wetterspots, perth combination of wind and rainfall. wetter spots, perth into the south of the grampians and forfar as well. is where we have seen over a months worth of rainfall in a day. we have seen the rain totting up in northern england. wakefield to south of leeds. extensive flooding through this morning and it is all because we have got weather systems with which are just stuck. we have an area of high pressure across scandinavia but this area revolving round it are. it means weather fronts have got stuck in the same place. it originated in the midlands tin there, is a lot of warm in, it might not feel it in the strong wind but that arm air means there is more moisture, when the rain falls it puts more on ground, and the strong winds have added to that, by forcing the clouds up over the hills and adding more rain to what is already

adding more rain to what is already a pretty nasty situation.